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Volume 15
Issue 8
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Atmosphere, Volume 15, Issue 8 (August 2024) – 150 articles

Cover Story (view full-size image): Anthropogenic CO2 emissions significantly contribute to global warming, necessitating effective carbon capture technologies. Lithium orthosilicate (Li4SiO4) is a promising sorbent for high-temperature CO2 capture due to its high adsorption capacity and stability. This study presents a novel approach for producing K2CO3-doped Li4SiO4 sorbents for high-temperature CO2 capture, using the design of experiments methodology to systematically test different synthesis and adsorption conditions. The response surface method was employed to analyze the interaction of process variables and develop predictive models for Li4SiO4 adsorption capacity and conversion. The results of this study demonstrate that these sorbents can be tailored to optimize CO2 capture across various conditions, proving their suitability for industrial applications. View this paper
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22 pages, 7765 KiB  
Article
Interpolation of Temperature in a Mountainous Region Using Heterogeneous Observation Networks
by Soorok Ryu, Joon Jin Song and GyuWon Lee
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 1018; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081018 - 22 Aug 2024
Viewed by 423
Abstract
Accurately generating high-resolution surface grid datasets often involves merging multiple weather observation networks and addressing the challenge of network heterogeneity. This study aims to tackle the problem of accurately interpolating temperature data in regions with a complex topography. To achieve this, we introduce [...] Read more.
Accurately generating high-resolution surface grid datasets often involves merging multiple weather observation networks and addressing the challenge of network heterogeneity. This study aims to tackle the problem of accurately interpolating temperature data in regions with a complex topography. To achieve this, we introduce a deterministic interpolation method that incorporates elevation to enhance the accuracy of temperature datasets. This method is particularly valuable for areas with intricate terrains. Our robust methodology integrates a network harmonization method with radial basis function (RBF) interpolation for complex topographical regions. The method was tested on 10 min average temperature data from Jeju Island, South Korea, over 2 years that had a spatial resolution of 100 m. The results show a significant reduction of 5.5% in error rates, from an average of 0.73 °C to 0.69 °C, by incorporating all adjusted data. Integrating a parameterized nonlinear temperature profile further enhances accuracy, yielding an average reduction of 4.4% in error compared to the linear model. The spatial interpolation method, based on regression-based radial basis functions, demonstrates a 6.7% improvement over regression-based kriging for the same temperature profile. This research offers a valuable approach for precise temperature interpolation, especially in regions with a complex topography. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Meteorology)
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21 pages, 14988 KiB  
Article
An Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Events in Cambodia
by Sytharith Pen, Saeed Rad, Liheang Ban, Sokhorng Brang, Panha Nuth and Lin Liao
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 1017; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081017 - 22 Aug 2024
Viewed by 582
Abstract
Extreme rainfall, also known as heavy rainfall or intense precipitation, is a weather event characterized by a significant amount of rainfall within a short period. This study analyzes the trends in extreme precipitation indices at 17 stations in four main regions in Cambodia—the [...] Read more.
Extreme rainfall, also known as heavy rainfall or intense precipitation, is a weather event characterized by a significant amount of rainfall within a short period. This study analyzes the trends in extreme precipitation indices at 17 stations in four main regions in Cambodia—the Tonle Sap, coastal, Mekong Delta, and Upper Mekong regions—between 1991 and 2021. Analyzing the data with RClimDex v1.9 reveals diverse spatial and temporal variations. The statistical analysis of the extreme rainfall indices in Cambodia from 1991 to 2021 reveals significant trends. In the Tonle Sap region, consecutive dry days (CDDs) increased at most stations, except Battabang, Kampong Thmar, and Pursat, while consecutive wet days (CWDs) increased at most stations. These trends align with rising temperatures and reduced forest cover. In the coastal region, particularly at the Krong Khemarak Phummin station, most rainfall indices increased, with a slope value of 89.94 mm/year. The extreme rainfall indices max. 1-day precipitation (RX1day) and max. 5-day precipitation (RX5day) also increased, suggesting higher precipitation on days exceeding the 95th (R95p) and 99th percentiles (R99p). The Kampot station showed a significant increase in CDDs, indicating a heightened drought risk. In the Mekong Delta, the Prey Veng station recorded a decrease in the CDDs slope value by −4.892 days/year, indicating potential drought risks. The Stung Treng station, which is the only station in Upper Mekong, showed a decreasing trend in CDDs with a slope value of −1.183 days/year, indicating a risk of extreme events. These findings underscore the complex interplay between climate change, land use, and rainfall patterns in Cambodia. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Hydrologic Cycle in a Changing Climate)
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17 pages, 1432 KiB  
Article
Energy Dependence of Solar Energetic Protons and Their Origin in Solar Cycles 23 and 24
by Rositsa Miteva, Susan W. Samwel and Momchil Dechev
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 1016; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081016 - 21 Aug 2024
Viewed by 467
Abstract
The study presents the compilation of a comprehensive catalog of solar energetic protons (SEPs) in solar cycles (SCs) 23 and 24 (1996–2019) in 10 energy channels from about 20 to 100 MeV based on data from the Energetic and Relativistic Nuclei and Electron [...] Read more.
The study presents the compilation of a comprehensive catalog of solar energetic protons (SEPs) in solar cycles (SCs) 23 and 24 (1996–2019) in 10 energy channels from about 20 to 100 MeV based on data from the Energetic and Relativistic Nuclei and Electron (ERNE) instrument aboard Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). For comparison, we added previously reported SEP fluxes by a number of different sources. We identified the SEP-solar origin in terms of solar flares and coronal mass ejections and calculated the statistical correlations (Pearson and partial) as a function of the SEP energy. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Planetary Atmospheres)
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18 pages, 937 KiB  
Article
Integrated Analysis of Multi-Parameter Precursors to the Fukushima Offshore Earthquake (Mj = 7.3) on 13 February 2021 and Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling Channels
by Masashi Hayakawa and Yasuhide Hobara
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 1015; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081015 - 21 Aug 2024
Viewed by 1308
Abstract
The preparation phase of earthquakes (EQs) has been investigated by making full use of multi-parameter and multi-layer observations of EQ precursors, in order to better understand the lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) process. For this purpose, we chose a specific target EQ, the huge EQ [...] Read more.
The preparation phase of earthquakes (EQs) has been investigated by making full use of multi-parameter and multi-layer observations of EQ precursors, in order to better understand the lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) process. For this purpose, we chose a specific target EQ, the huge EQ of Fukushima-ken-oki EQ on 13 February 2021 (magnitude Mj = 7.3). We initially reported on EQ precursors in different physical parameters not only of the lithosphere, but also of the atmosphere and ionosphere (Hayakawa et al. followed by Akhoondzadeh et al. and Draz et al., both based on satellite observations). Our first two papers dealt with seven electromagnetic precursors in the three layers (with emphasis on our own ground-based observations in the atmosphere and lower ionosphere), while the second paper dealt with Swarm satellite observations of magnetic field, electron density, and GPS TEC in the ionosphere, and the third paper dealt only with climatological parameters on and above the Earth’s surface (together with GPS TEC). We have extensively reviewed all of these results, and have coordinated the temporal evolutions of various physical parameters relevant to the LAIC system; we have sought to understand which hypothesis is more plausible in explaining the LAIC process. Then, we came to a conclusion that two possible LAIC channels seem to exist simultaneously for this EQ: a fast channel (nearly simultaneous responses on the ground and ionosphere), and a slow channel (or diffusion-type), with a time delay of a few to several days, in which the agent effects in the lithosphere and lowest atmosphere seem to propagate up to the ionosphere with a definite time delay. Finally, we have suggested some research directions for the future elucidation of LAIC channels, and also made some comments on an early EQ warning system. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Ionospheric Sounding for Identification of Pre-seismic Activity)
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22 pages, 5834 KiB  
Article
A Novel Hybrid Method for Multi-Step Short-Term 70 m Wind Speed Prediction Based on Modal Reconstruction and STL-VMD-BiLSTM
by Xuanfang Da, Dong Ye, Yanbo Shen, Peng Cheng, Jinfeng Yao and Dan Wang
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 1014; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081014 - 21 Aug 2024
Viewed by 617
Abstract
In the context of achieving the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, the development of clean resources has become an essential strategic support for the low-carbon energy transition. This paper presents a method for the modal decomposition and reconstruction of time series [...] Read more.
In the context of achieving the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, the development of clean resources has become an essential strategic support for the low-carbon energy transition. This paper presents a method for the modal decomposition and reconstruction of time series to enhance the prediction accuracy and performance regarding the 70 m wind speed. The experimental results indicate that the STL-VMD-BiLSTM hybrid algorithm proposed in this paper outperforms the STL-BiLSTM and VMD-BiLSTM models in forecasting accuracy, particularly in extracting nonlinearity characteristics and effectively capturing wind speed extremes. Compared with other machine learning algorithms, including the STL-VMD-LGBM, STL-VMD-SVR and STL-VMD-RF models, the STL-VMD-BiLSTM model demonstrates superior performance. The average evaluation criteria, including the RMSE, MAE and R2, for the proposed model, from t + 15 to t + 120 show improvements to 0.582–0.753 m/s, 0.437–0.573 m/s and 0.915–0.951, respectively. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Solar Irradiance and Wind Forecasting)
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19 pages, 15166 KiB  
Article
Ensemble Predictions of Rainfall-Induced Landslide Risk under Climate Change in China Integrating Antecedent Soil-Wetness Factors
by Han Zong, Qiang Dai and Jingxuan Zhu
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 1013; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081013 - 21 Aug 2024
Viewed by 337
Abstract
Global warming has increased the occurrence of extreme weather events, causing significant economic losses and casualties from rainfall-induced landslides. China, being highly prone to landslides, requires comprehensive predictions of future rainfall-induced landslide risks. By developing a landslide-prediction model integrated with the CMIP6 GCMs [...] Read more.
Global warming has increased the occurrence of extreme weather events, causing significant economic losses and casualties from rainfall-induced landslides. China, being highly prone to landslides, requires comprehensive predictions of future rainfall-induced landslide risks. By developing a landslide-prediction model integrated with the CMIP6 GCMs ensemble, we predict the spatiotemporal distribution of future rainfall-induced landslides in China, incorporating antecedent soil-wetness factors. In this study, antecedent soil wetness is represented by the antecedent effective rainfall index (ARI), which accounts for cumulative rainfall, evaporation, and runoff losses. Firstly, we calculated landslide susceptibility using seven geographic factors, such as slope and geology. Then, we constructed landslide threshold models with two antecedent soil-wetness indicators. Compared to the traditional recent cumulative rainfall thresholds, the landslide threshold model based on ARI demonstrated higher hit rates and lower false alarm rates. Ensemble predictions indicate that in the early 21st century, the risk of landslides decreases in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, Southwest, and Southeast regions but increases in other regions. Mid-century projections show a 10% to 40% increase in landslide risk across most regions. By the end of the century, the risk is expected to rise by more than 15% nationwide, displaying a spatial distribution pattern that intensifies from east to west. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Rainfall-Induced Hazard Research)
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20 pages, 6157 KiB  
Article
Physical and Statistical Links between Errors at the Surface, in the Boundary Layer, and in the Free Atmosphere in Medium-Range Numerical Weather Predictions
by Stéphane Bélair, Nasim Alavi, Sylvie Leroyer, Marco L. Carrera, Maria Abrahamowicz, Bernard Bilodeau, Dragan Simjanovski, Dorothée Charpentier and Bakr Badawy
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 1012; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081012 - 21 Aug 2024
Viewed by 484
Abstract
The adequate representation of interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere is of crucial importance in modern numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. In this context, this study examines how errors in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) depend on the quality of near-surface [...] Read more.
The adequate representation of interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere is of crucial importance in modern numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. In this context, this study examines how errors in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) depend on the quality of near-surface prediction over land for medium-range NWP. Two series of 10-day forecasts from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)’s global deterministic prediction system were evaluated: one similar to what is currently used in ECCC’s operational systems and the other with improved land surface modeling and land data assimilation. An objective evaluation was performed for the 2019 summer season in North America, with a special emphasis on three specific areas: northern Canada, the central US, and the southeastern US. The results indicate that the impact of the new land surface package is more difficult to interpret in the PBL than it is at the screen level. The error differences between the two experiments are quite distinct for the three regions examined. As expected, random errors (standard deviations) for air temperature and specific humidity in the PBL are directly linked with their own random errors at the screen level, with correlation coefficients decreasing from a value of one at the surface to values of about 0.2–0.3 a few kilometers above the surface. Less expected, however, is the fact that random errors in the lower atmosphere also strongly depend on changes in air temperature biases at the surface. Warmer near-surface conditions lead to increased random errors for air temperature in the lower atmosphere, in association with the development of the deeper PBL, with greater spatial variability. This finding is of particular interest when evaluating new configurations of NWP systems for implementation in national meteorological and environmental prediction centers. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Atmospheric Techniques, Instruments, and Modeling)
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12 pages, 3905 KiB  
Article
Oxidation of Aminoacetaldehyde Initiated by the OH Radical: A Theoretical Mechanistic and Kinetic Study
by Ashraful Alam and Gabriel da Silva
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 1011; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081011 - 21 Aug 2024
Viewed by 347
Abstract
Aminoacetaldehyde (glycinal, NH2CH2CHO) is a first-generation oxidation product of monoethanolamine (MEA, NH2CH2CH2OH), a solvent widely used for CO2 gas separation, which is proposed as the basis for a range of carbon capture [...] Read more.
Aminoacetaldehyde (glycinal, NH2CH2CHO) is a first-generation oxidation product of monoethanolamine (MEA, NH2CH2CH2OH), a solvent widely used for CO2 gas separation, which is proposed as the basis for a range of carbon capture technologies. A complete oxidation mechanism for MEA is required to understand the atmospheric transformation of carbon capture plant emissions, as well as the degradation of this solvent during its use and the oxidative destruction of waste solvent. In this study, we have investigated the •OH radical-initiated oxidation chemistry of aminoacetaldehyde using quantum chemical calculations and RRKM theory/master equation kinetic modeling. This work predicts that aminoacetaldehyde has a tropospheric lifetime of around 6 h and that the reaction predominantly produces the NH2CH2C•O radical intermediate at room temperature, along with minor contributions from NH2•CHCHO and •NHCH2CHO. The dominant radical intermediate NH2CH2C•O is predicted to promptly dissociate to NH2•CH2 and CO, where NH2•CH2 is known to react with O2 under tropospheric conditions to form the imine NH = CH2 + HO2. The NH2•CHCHO radical experiences captodative stabilization and is found to form a weakly bound peroxyl radical upon reaction with O2. Instead, the major oxidation product of NH2•CHCHO and the aminyl radical •NHCH2CHO is the imine NH = CHCHO (+HO2). In the atmosphere, the dominant fate of imine compounds is thought to be hydrolysis, where NH = CH2 will form ammonia and formaldehyde, and NH = CHCHO will produce ammonia and glyoxal. Efficient conversion of the dominant first-generation oxidation products of MEA to ammonia is consistent with field observations and supports the important role of imine intermediates in MEA oxidation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Reactive Nitrogen and Halogen in the Atmosphere)
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18 pages, 10242 KiB  
Article
Comparative Analysis of Two Tornado Processes in Southern Jiangsu
by Yang Li, Shuya Cao, Xiaohua Wang and Lei Wang
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 1010; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081010 - 21 Aug 2024
Viewed by 378
Abstract
Jiangsu is a province in China and has the highest frequency of tornado occurrences. Studying the meteorological background and mechanisms of tornado formation is crucial for predicting tornado events and preventing the resulting disasters. This paper analyzed the meteorological background, instability mechanisms, and [...] Read more.
Jiangsu is a province in China and has the highest frequency of tornado occurrences. Studying the meteorological background and mechanisms of tornado formation is crucial for predicting tornado events and preventing the resulting disasters. This paper analyzed the meteorological background, instability mechanisms, and lifting conditions of the two Enhanced Fujita Scale level 2 (EF2) and above tornadoes that occurred in southern Jiangsu on 14 May 2021 (“5.14”) and 6 July 2020 (“7.06”) using ERA5 reanalysis data. Detailed analyses of the internal structure of tornado storms were conducted using Changzhou and Qingpu radar data. The results showed that (1) both tornadoes occurred in warm and moist areas ahead of upper-level troughs with significant dry air transport following the cold troughs. The continuous strengthening of low-level warm and moist advection was crucial in maintaining potential instability and triggering tornado vortices. The 14 May tornado formed within a low-level shear line and a warm area of a surface trough, while the 6 July tornado occurred at the end of a low-level jet stream, north of the eastern section of a quasi-stationary front. (2) The convective available potential energy (CAPE) and K indices for both tornado processes were very close (391 for “5.14” and 378 for “7.06”), with the lifting condensation level (LCL) near the ground. The “5.14” showed greater instability and more favorable thermodynamic conditions, with deep southwesterly jets at the mid-level shear line producing rotation under strong convergent action (convergence center value exceeding −1 × 10−4s−1). In contrast, the “7.06” was driven by super-low-level jet stream pulsations and wind direction convergence under the influence of the Meiyu Front (convergence center value exceeding −1.5 × 10−4 s−1), resulting in intense lifting and vertical vorticity triggered by a surface convergence line. (3) The “5.14” tornado process involved a supercell storm over a surface dry line experiencing tilting due to strong vertical wind shear, which led to the formation of smaller cyclonic vortices near a hook echo that developed into a tornado. The “7.06” developed on a bow echo structure within a mesoscale convective system formed over the Meiyu Front, where dry air subsidence, entrainment, and convergence of the southeast jet stream triggered a “miniature” supercell. The relevant research results provide a reference for the prediction and early warning of tornadoes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Rainfall-Induced Hazard Research)
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18 pages, 4219 KiB  
Article
VOCs Concentration, SOA Formation Contribution and Festival Effects during Heavy Haze Event: A Case Study in Zhengzhou, Central China
by Shijie Yu, Chaofang Xue, Fuwen Deng, Qixiang Xu and Bingnan Zhao
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 1009; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081009 - 21 Aug 2024
Viewed by 361
Abstract
In this study, online ambient volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were collected at an urban site of Zhengzhou in Central China during February 2018. The VOCs characteristics, source contributions and the Chinese New Year (CNY) effects have been investigated. During the sampling period, three [...] Read more.
In this study, online ambient volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were collected at an urban site of Zhengzhou in Central China during February 2018. The VOCs characteristics, source contributions and the Chinese New Year (CNY) effects have been investigated. During the sampling period, three haze periods have been identified, with the corresponding VOCs concentrations of (92 ± 45) ppbv, (62 ± 18) ppbv and (83 ± 34) ppbv; in contrast, the concentration during non-haze days was found to be (57 ± 27) ppbv. In addition, the festival effects of the CNY were investigated, and the concentration of particulate matter precursor decreased significantly. Meanwhile, firework-displaying events were identified, as the emission intensity had been greatly changed. Both potential source contribution function (PSCF) and the concentration weighted trajectory (CWT) models results indicated that short-distance transportation was the main influencing factor of the local VOCs pollution, especially by transport from the northeast. Source contribution results by the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model showed that vehicle exhaust (24%), liquid petroleum gas and natural gas (LPG/NG, 23%), coal combustion (21%), industrial processes (16%) and solvent usages (16%) were the major sources of ambient VOCs. Although industry and solvents have low contribution to the total VOCs, their secondary organic aerosol (SOA) contribution were found to be relatively high, especially in haze-1 and haze-3 periods. The haze-2 period had the lowest secondary organic aerosol potential (SOAp) during the sampling period; this is mainly caused by the reduction of industrial and solvent emissions due to CNY. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Secondary Atmospheric Pollution Formations and Its Precursors)
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18 pages, 40951 KiB  
Article
Effects of the 2024 Total Solar Eclipse on the Structure of the Planetary Boundary Layer: A Preliminary Analysis
by Robert Pasken, Richard Woodford, Jimmy Bergmann, Carter Hickel, Margaret Ideker, Riley Jackson, Jack Rotter and Benjamin Schaefer
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 1008; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081008 - 21 Aug 2024
Viewed by 477
Abstract
A total solar eclipse provides an unparalleled opportunity to study the changes in the atmosphere’s planetary boundary layer (PBL) due to changes in radiative heating. Although previous eclipse studies have demonstrated that significant changes occur, few studies have explored the evolution of these [...] Read more.
A total solar eclipse provides an unparalleled opportunity to study the changes in the atmosphere’s planetary boundary layer (PBL) due to changes in radiative heating. Although previous eclipse studies have demonstrated that significant changes occur, few studies have explored the evolution of these changes. To better understand the changes in the lowest layers of the PBL during an eclipse, a multi-sensor sampling approach was taken. Radiosonde launches were used to explore the depth of the column, while Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) were used to document with high-resolution the brief changes in the vertical structure of the PBL caused by the eclipse. These changes highlighted differences from previous studies that relied solely on radiosonde and/or mesonet data alone. Higher-resolution sampling of the lower PBL showed a delay in the local vertical mixing as well as changes in the PBL height from pre- to post-eclipse. Slow responses were noted at the top of the PBL while very rapid changes to the PBL profile were captured in the near-surface layer. These changes highlighted differences from previous studies that relied solely on radiosonde and/or mesonet data alone. A preliminary analysis of the collected data highlighted a slow response to the eclipse near the top of the planetary boundary layer (radiosonde data) with very rapid changes noted in the near surface layer (UAV data). Preliminary results show that PBL heights remained nearly constant until well after third contact when a 35 hPa lowering of the PBL heights was observed and were limited to the lowest 25 hPa. The UAV soundings demonstrated the development of a strong inversion where the air below 990 hPa rapidly cooled with a nearly 1 °C drop in temperature observed. These observed changes raise interesting questions about how the lower and upper parts of the planetary boundary layer interact. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Atmospheric Techniques, Instruments, and Modeling)
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14 pages, 7895 KiB  
Article
The Black Sea Upwelling System: Analysis on the Western Shallow Waters
by Maria Emanuela Mihailov
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 999; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080999 - 20 Aug 2024
Viewed by 412
Abstract
Upwelling is due to the combined effect of the coastal divergence process and Ekman pumping. The author aims to investigate two new upwelling indices for the Black Sea, derived from climate reanalysis models and the following in situ data: (a) the Coastal Upwelling [...] Read more.
Upwelling is due to the combined effect of the coastal divergence process and Ekman pumping. The author aims to investigate two new upwelling indices for the Black Sea, derived from climate reanalysis models and the following in situ data: (a) the Coastal Upwelling Transport Index (CUTI) that estimates the rate of vertical volume transport and (b) the Biologically Effective Upwelling Transport Index (BEUTI) that estimates the nitrate flux into the surface mixed layer. Average monthly wind by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Copernicus Marine Services for the Black Sea basin is used to calculate the CUTI and BEUTI Indexes for over 26 years (1993–2019) to analyse the sites along the North-Western Black Sea where changes in divergence phenomena occur. From 2000 to 2018, 31 divergence processes were observed based on daily in situ data from the coastal monitoring stations, with significant predominance in late spring and early summer. Nitrate supply by coastal upwelling has been estimated by combining sea surface temperature and salinity for the in situ data for the North-Western Black Sea shallow waters, and BEUTI indices were determined. Comparing 18 years of data results, the calculated indices and the observed upwelling events showed significant correlations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Meteorology)
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15 pages, 7764 KiB  
Article
Impact of May–June Antarctic Oscillation on July–August Heat-Drought Weather in Yangtze River Basin
by Zhengxuan Yuan, Jun Zhang, Liangmin Du, Ying Xiao and Sijing Huang
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 998; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080998 - 20 Aug 2024
Viewed by 384
Abstract
Investigating the physical mechanism behind the formation of summer heat-drought weather (HDW) in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) holds significant importance for predicting summer precipitation and temperature patterns in the region as well as disaster mitigation and prevention. This study focuses on spatiotemporal [...] Read more.
Investigating the physical mechanism behind the formation of summer heat-drought weather (HDW) in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) holds significant importance for predicting summer precipitation and temperature patterns in the region as well as disaster mitigation and prevention. This study focuses on spatiotemporal patterns of July–August (JA) HDW in the YRB from 1979 to 2022, which is linked partially to the preceding May–June (MJ) Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). Key findings are summarized as follows: (1) The MJ AAO displays a marked positive correlation with the JA HDW index (HDWI) in the southern part of upper YRB (UYRB), while showing a negative correlation in the area extending from the Han River to the western lower reaches of the YRB (LYRB); (2) The signal of MJ AAO persists into late JA through a specific pattern of Sea Surface Temperature anomalies in the Southern Ocean (SOSST). This, in turn, modulates the atmospheric circulation over East Asia; (3) The SST anomalies in the South Atlantic initiate Rossby waves that cross the equator, splitting into two branches. One branch propagates from the Somali-Tropical Indian Ocean, maintaining a negative-phased East Asia–Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern. This enhances the moisture flow from the Pacific towards the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (MYRB-LYRB). The other branch propagates northward, crossing the Somali region, and induces a positive geopotential height anomaly over Urals-West Asia. This reduces the southwesterlies towards the UYRB, thereby contributing to HDW variabilities in the region. (4) Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) demonstrated predictive capability for JA HDW in the YRB for 2022, based on Southern Ocean SST. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Air Temperature and Precipitation and Relationship to Atmospheric Circulation)
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14 pages, 1481 KiB  
Review
Recent Advances in SCR Systems of Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles—Low-Temperature NOx Reduction Technology and Combination of SCR with Remote OBD
by Zhengguo Chen, Qingyang Liu, Haoye Liu and Tianyou Wang
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 997; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080997 - 20 Aug 2024
Viewed by 505
Abstract
Heavy-duty diesel vehicles are a significant source of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in the atmosphere. The Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) system is a primary aftertreatment device for reducing NOx emissions from heavy-duty diesel vehicles. With increasingly stringent NOx emission regulations for heavy-duty vehicles in [...] Read more.
Heavy-duty diesel vehicles are a significant source of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in the atmosphere. The Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) system is a primary aftertreatment device for reducing NOx emissions from heavy-duty diesel vehicles. With increasingly stringent NOx emission regulations for heavy-duty vehicles in major countries, there is a growing focus on reducing NOx emissions under low exhaust temperature conditions, as well as monitoring the conversion efficiency of the SCR system over its entire lifecycle. By reviewing relevant literature mainly from the past five years, this paper reviews the development trends and related research results of SCR technology, focusing on two main aspects: low-temperature NOx reduction technology and the combination of SCR systems with remote On-Board Diagnostics (OBD). Regarding low-temperature NOx reduction technology, the results of the review indicate that the combination of multiple catalytic shows potential for achieving high conversion efficiency across a wide temperature range; advanced SCR system arrangement can accelerate the increase in exhaust temperature within the SCR system; solid ammonium and gaseous reductants can effectively address the issue of urea not being able to be injected under low-temperature exhaust conditions. As for the combination of SCR systems with remote OBD, remote OBD can accurately assess NOx emissions from heavy-duty vehicles, but it needs algorithms to correct data and match the emission testing process required by regulations. Remote OBD systems are crucial for detecting SCR tampering, but algorithms must be developed to balance accuracy with computational efficiency. This review provides updated information on the current research status and development directions in SCR technologies, offering valuable insights for future research into advanced SCR systems. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Recent Advances in Mobile Source Emissions (2nd Edition))
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22 pages, 6741 KiB  
Article
Climatic Suitability for Outdoor Tourism in Romania’s Big Cities
by Adina-Eliza Croitoru, Ștefana Banc, Andreea-Sabina Scripcă and Adina-Viorica Rus
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 996; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080996 - 20 Aug 2024
Viewed by 377
Abstract
This research aims to assess the climatic temporal suitability over the year and identify the appropriate season for open-air tourism in ten Romanian cities. It was evaluated using the Enhanced Tourism Climatic Index on a temporal scale of one day and then aggregated [...] Read more.
This research aims to assess the climatic temporal suitability over the year and identify the appropriate season for open-air tourism in ten Romanian cities. It was evaluated using the Enhanced Tourism Climatic Index on a temporal scale of one day and then aggregated to 10 days over 61 years (1961–2021). Daily mean and maximum temperature, mean and minimum relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation, and sunshine hours were employed in the investigation. The Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope were used for trend detection in the frequency, season duration, and first/last suitable day during the year for outdoor tourism. Acceptable or better weather conditions usually begin in the last part of April and end in mid-October, with Good or better conditions lasting between 260 and 310 days/year. The trend shows a shift of Good conditions earlier in the year (0.3–9.0 days/decade), resulting in a longer season duration (0.8–13.0 days/decade) for open-air activities. The trend is statistically significant mainly for the extra-Carpathian regions. Big differences in open-air events number during the climatically suitable season have been identified among the cities considered (2–19 events/year). This study is useful for better planning open-air events and activities for tourism and recreation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change and Tourism: Impacts and Responses)
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15 pages, 22230 KiB  
Article
Meteorological Modulation of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height over a Caribbean Island
by Alejandro Álvarez-Valencia, Juan L. Colón-Perez, Mark R. Jury and Héctor J. Jiménez
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 1007; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081007 - 20 Aug 2024
Viewed by 424
Abstract
This study analyzes fluctuations in the atmospheric boundary layer height (aBLH) over a Caribbean island using hourly measured and model-interpolated data from the 2019–2023 period. Our focus is the mean structure, diurnal cycle, and aBLH correlation with meteorological parameters on the leeward coast [...] Read more.
This study analyzes fluctuations in the atmospheric boundary layer height (aBLH) over a Caribbean island using hourly measured and model-interpolated data from the 2019–2023 period. Our focus is the mean structure, diurnal cycle, and aBLH correlation with meteorological parameters on the leeward coast at Mayaguez (18.2 N, 67.1 W). The mean diurnal cycle of the aBLH increases from 300 m near sunrise (07:00) to 1200 m by 13:00 because of turbulent heating. Summer-time thermal circulations lead to a 3 °C increase in near-surface dewpoint temperature (Td) that propagates upward to 3000 m by 16:00. A case study demonstrates how mid-day trade winds turn onshore and generate significant rainfall and river discharge across the island. The context for this study is provided by a 24 yr cluster analysis that identifies rainfall over the island’s northwest interior driven by upstream heating. Analysis of linear trends from 1979 to 2023 shows that Td declined by −0.02 °C/yr above 1500 m because of large-scale subsidence. However, cool interior forests transpire humidity and instill contrasting trends that may amplify climate extremes. A better understanding of entrainment at the top of the atmospheric boundary layer could be critical for managing future water resources in Caribbean islands. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Atmospheric Boundary Layer Observation and Meteorology)
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26 pages, 9488 KiB  
Article
The Implementation of Cloud and Vertical Velocity Relocation/Cycling System in the Vortex Initialization of the HAFS
by JungHoon Shin, Zhan Zhang, Bin Liu, Yonghui Weng, Qingfu Liu, Avichal Mehra and Vijay Tallapragada
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 1006; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081006 - 20 Aug 2024
Viewed by 298
Abstract
The first version operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) implemented the Vortex Initialization (VI) technique to optimize tropical cyclone structure and intensity, which was adopted from the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting system (HWRF) and does not initialize cloud hydrometeors and vertical [...] Read more.
The first version operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) implemented the Vortex Initialization (VI) technique to optimize tropical cyclone structure and intensity, which was adopted from the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting system (HWRF) and does not initialize cloud hydrometeors and vertical velocity. This limitation in the VI caused the inconsistency issue between hurricane vortex and its cloud in the model initial condition. A new VI, which can relocate or cycle cloud hydrometeors and vertical velocity, has been developed to solve this issue. For the cold start, the VI simply relocates the cloud and vertical velocity fields of Global Forecasting System (GFS) analysis; for the warm start, the cloud and vertical velocity associated with a hurricane in the GFS analysis are replaced by the fields extracted from the 6 h HAFS forecast of a previous cycle. This new VI has been tested for the 2023 HAFS-A real-time experiment configuration, and another sensitivity experiment without relocating or cycling both cloud and vertical velocity is conducted to examine the effect of the new VI. A comparison of the results reveals that the new VI improves the intensity forecast and generates a very realistic initial cloud field in correct position. Validating the model initial conditions with observed radar data reveals that the new VI captures the secondary eyewall of major hurricanes and asymmetric convective structure of weak tropical storms. This improvement of the cloud field in the model initial condition through the new VI expects to provide a better background for further data assimilation. Additional sensitivity experiment that only relocates or cycles cloud hydrometeors without correcting the vertical velocity field results in poorer intensity forecasts, which highlights the importance of vertical velocity in the model initial condition. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Tropical Cyclone Prediction: Observation, Simulation, and Verification)
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21 pages, 4517 KiB  
Article
Causes for the Occurrence of Severe Drought at the Ogasawara (Bonin) Islands during the El Niño Event in 2018–2019
by Hiroshi Matsuyama
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 1005; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081005 - 20 Aug 2024
Viewed by 348
Abstract
The Ogasawara (Bonin) Islands, consisting of more than 30 islands and located approximately 1000 km south of central Tokyo, occasionally experience severe droughts. Severe drought does not typically occur during El Niño (EN) events in the Ogasawara Islands because convective activity around the [...] Read more.
The Ogasawara (Bonin) Islands, consisting of more than 30 islands and located approximately 1000 km south of central Tokyo, occasionally experience severe droughts. Severe drought does not typically occur during El Niño (EN) events in the Ogasawara Islands because convective activity around the tropical western Pacific is inactive during EN events and correspondingly induces substantial precipitation around the Ogasawara Islands through the Pacific–Japan (P-J) pattern. However, a severe drought in 2018–2019 occurred during EN. In this study, we investigated the causes of drought occurrence. In 2018–2019, the El Niño Modoki (EN Modoki) event occurred simultaneously with EN, which decreased precipitation around the Ogasawara Islands from autumn to the following spring. This was induced by the positive sea level pressure anomaly and anticyclonic circulation around the Ogasawara Islands peculiar to the EN Modoki condition. In relation to the 2018–2019 drought, the investigation of past drought events at the Ogasawara Islands revealed that the drought in the spring and summer of 1991 also occurred during the simultaneous occurrence of the EN and EN Modoki events. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Island Effects on Weather and Climate)
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15 pages, 1786 KiB  
Article
Elucidating Decade-Long Trends and Diurnal Patterns in Aerosol Acidity in Shanghai
by Zhixiao Lv, Xingnan Ye, Weijie Huang, Yinghui Yao and Yusen Duan
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 1004; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081004 - 20 Aug 2024
Viewed by 376
Abstract
Aerosol acidity is a critical factor affecting atmospheric chemistry. Here, we present a study on annual, monthly, and daily variations in PM2.5 pH in Shanghai during 2010–2020. With the effective control of SO2 emissions, the NO2/SO2 ratio increased [...] Read more.
Aerosol acidity is a critical factor affecting atmospheric chemistry. Here, we present a study on annual, monthly, and daily variations in PM2.5 pH in Shanghai during 2010–2020. With the effective control of SO2 emissions, the NO2/SO2 ratio increased from 1.26 in 2010 to 5.07 in 2020 and the NO3−/SO42− ratio increased from 0.68 to 1.49. Aerosol pH decreased from 3.27 in 2010 to 2.93 in 2020, regardless of great achievement in reducing industrial SO2 and NOx emissions. These findings suggest that aerosol acidity might not be significantly reduced in response to the control of SO2 and NOx emissions. The monthly variation in pH values exhibited a V-shape trend, mainly attributable to aerosol compositions and temperature. Atmospheric NH3 plays the decisive role in buffering particle acidity, whereas Ca2+ and K+ are important acidity buffers, and the distinct pH decline during 2010–2016 was associated with the reduction of Ca2+ and K+ while both temperature and SO42− were important drivers in winter. Sensitivity tests show that pH increases with the increasing relative humidity in summer while it is not sensitive to relative humidity in winter due to proportional increases in Hair+ and aerosol liquid water content (ALWC). Our results suggest that reducing NOx emissions in Shanghai will not significantly affect PM2.5 acidity in winter. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Measurement, Evaluation and Modeling of Particulate Matter and Air Quality Index)
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14 pages, 2119 KiB  
Article
Sun Declination and Distribution of Natural Beam Irradiance on Earth
by José A. Rueda, Sergio Ramírez, Miguel A. Sánchez and Juan de Dios Guerrero
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 1003; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081003 - 20 Aug 2024
Viewed by 754
Abstract
The daily path of the Sun across longitude yields night and day, but the Sun also travels across latitude on a belt 47° wide. The solar meridian declination explains the latitudinal budget of natural beam irradiance (NBI), which is defined as [...] Read more.
The daily path of the Sun across longitude yields night and day, but the Sun also travels across latitude on a belt 47° wide. The solar meridian declination explains the latitudinal budget of natural beam irradiance (NBI), which is defined as the irradiance delivered to the Earth’s surface as a normal projection from the Sun. Data for the Sun meridian declination were obtained from the Spencer model, known as the geometric model. The distribution of NBI was weighed for the latitudinal belt between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn. The variation in the parameters of solar meridian declination were found to be analogous to that of pendular motion. The joint distributions of the solar meridian declination against its own velocity, or that of the velocity against the acceleration of solar meridian declination, displayed circular functions. The NBI budget that a particular latitude gathers, fluctuates in inverse proportion to the velocity of solar meridian declination, yielding 18 sun-paths per degree for latitudes above 20°, or 6 sun-paths per degree of latitude for latitudes under 20°. At an average Sun–Earth distance of 1 AU, all sites of the planet, whose latitude coincides, whether within or between hemispheres, accumulate an equivalent budget of NBI. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Planetary Atmospheres)
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11 pages, 1475 KiB  
Article
The Long-Term Monitoring of Atmospheric Polychlorinated Dibenzo-p-Dioxin Dibenzofurans at a Background Station in Taiwan during Biomass Burning Seasons in El Niño and La Niña Events
by Shih Yu Pan, Yen-Shun Hsu, Yuan Cheng Hsu, Tuan Hung Ngo, Charles C.-K. Chou, Neng-Huei Lin and Kai Hsien Chi
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 1002; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081002 - 20 Aug 2024
Viewed by 313
Abstract
To measure the long-range transport of PCDD/Fs, a background sampling site at Mt. Lulin station (Taiwan) was selected based on meteorological information and its location relative to burning events in Southeast Asia. During regular sampling periods, a higher concentration of PCDD/Fs was recorded [...] Read more.
To measure the long-range transport of PCDD/Fs, a background sampling site at Mt. Lulin station (Taiwan) was selected based on meteorological information and its location relative to burning events in Southeast Asia. During regular sampling periods, a higher concentration of PCDD/Fs was recorded in 2008 at Mt. Lulin station during La Niña events, with levels reaching 390 fg I-TEQ/m3. In contrast, a higher concentration of 483 fg I-TEQ/m3 was observed in 2013 during biomass burning events. This indicates that La Niña affects the ambient PCDD/F concentrations. The ratio of ΣPCDD/ΣPCDF was 0.59, suggesting significant long-range transport contributions from 2007 to 2023. From 2007 to 2015, the predominant species was 2,3,4,7,8-PCDF, accounting for 25.3 to 39.6% of the total PCDD/Fs. From 2018 onward, 1,2,3,7,8-PCDD became more dominant, accounting for 15.0 to 27.1%. According to the results from the receptor model PMF (n = 150), the sources of PCDD/Fs were identified as dust storms and monsoon events (19.3%), anthropogenic activity (28.5%), and biomass burning events (52.2%). The PSCF values higher than 0.7 highlighted potential PCDD/F emission source regions for Mt. Lulin during biomass burning events, indicating high PSCF values in southern Thailand, Cambodia, and southern Vietnam. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Toxicity of Persistent Organic Pollutants and Microplastics in Air)
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17 pages, 13843 KiB  
Article
The Assessment of Precipitation and Droughts in the Aegean Region Using Stochastic Time Series and Standardized Precipitation Index
by Ahmet Tanrıkulu, Ulker Guner and Ersin Bahar
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 1001; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081001 - 20 Aug 2024
Viewed by 311
Abstract
This study analyzes drought conditions in the Aegean region using monthly precipitation data from nine stations between 1972 and 2020. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was calculated for 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month periods to evaluate drought conditions at different timescales and [...] Read more.
This study analyzes drought conditions in the Aegean region using monthly precipitation data from nine stations between 1972 and 2020. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was calculated for 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month periods to evaluate drought conditions at different timescales and station-specific conditions. The results indicate that short-term droughts are more frequent but shorter in duration, while longer periods exhibit fewer but more prolonged droughts. The relative frequency of drought across all periods ranges between 9% and 27%. The İzmir and Denizli stations were highlighted due to their representation of coastal and inner regions, respectively. The findings show that coastal stations, like İzmir, experience more frequent wet years compared to inner stations like Denizli, which have more dry years. Time series linear autoregressive (AR) models, using SPI-12 data, were developed to represent long-term drought trends and forecasts. The best-fitting models were determined using AIC, AICC, FPE, and Var(e) criteria, with AR(2) generally being the most suitable, except for Denizli. This integrated analysis of SPI and AR models provides a robust basis for understanding regional precipitation regimes and predicting future droughts, aiding in the development of effective drought mitigation strategies and water resource management. Future research is anticipated to extend this analysis to encompass all of Turkey and explore various time series models’ applicability. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Climatology)
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16 pages, 910 KiB  
Article
Theory and Modelling of Isotropic Turbulence: From Incompressible through Increasingly Compressible Flows
by Claude Cambon
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 1000; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081000 - 20 Aug 2024
Viewed by 364
Abstract
Homogeneous isotropic turbulence (HIT) has been a useful theoretical concept for more than fifty years of theory, modelling, and calculations. Some exact results are revisited in incompressible HIT, with special emphasis on the 4/5 Kolmogorov law. The finite Reynolds number effect (FRN), which [...] Read more.
Homogeneous isotropic turbulence (HIT) has been a useful theoretical concept for more than fifty years of theory, modelling, and calculations. Some exact results are revisited in incompressible HIT, with special emphasis on the 4/5 Kolmogorov law. The finite Reynolds number effect (FRN), which yields corrections to that law, is investigated, using both Kármán–Howarth-type equations and a statistical spectral closure of the Eddy-Damped Quasi-Normal Markovian (EDQNM)-type. This discussion offers an opportunity to give an extended review of such spectral closures, from weak turbulence, as in wave turbulence theory, to a strong one. Extensions of the 4/5 or 4/3 Kolmogorov/Monin laws to anisotropic cases, such as stably stratified and MHD turbulence, are briefly touched on. Before addressing more recent work on compressible isotropic turbulence, the simplest case of quasi-incompressible turbulence subjected to externally imposed isotropic compression or dilatation is presented. Rapid distortion theory is found to be a poor model in this isotropic case, in contrast with its relevance in strongly anisotropic flow cases. Accordingly, a fully nonlinear approach based on a rescaling of all fluctuating variables is used, in order to show its interplay with the linear operator. This opens the discussion on the cases of homogeneous incompressible turbulence, where RDT and nonlinear models are relevant, provided that anisotropy is accounted for. Finally, isotropic compressible flows of increasing complexity are considered. Recent studies using weak turbulence theory, modelling, and DNS are discussed. A final unpublished study involves interactions between the solenoidal mode, inherited from incompressible turbulence, and the acoustic and entropic modes, which are specific to the compressible problem. An approach to acoustic wave turbulence, with resonant triads, is revisited on this occasion. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Isotropic Turbulence: Recent Advances and Current Challenges)
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11 pages, 238 KiB  
Article
Assessment of Perceived Indoor Air Quality in the Classrooms of Slovenian Primary Schools and Its Association with Indoor Air Quality Factors, for the Design of Public Health Interventions
by An Galičič, Jan Rožanec, Andreja Kukec, Sašo Medved and Ivan Eržen
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 995; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080995 - 19 Aug 2024
Viewed by 441
Abstract
From a public health perspective, it is necessary to improve indoor air quality (IAQ) in schools. This study aims to assess the state of perceived IAQ in Slovenian school classrooms and its association with the selected IAQ factors to improve the understanding of [...] Read more.
From a public health perspective, it is necessary to improve indoor air quality (IAQ) in schools. This study aims to assess the state of perceived IAQ in Slovenian school classrooms and its association with the selected IAQ factors to improve the understanding of perceived IAQ for designing public health interventions aimed to improve IAQ in schools. A national cross-sectional study was performed in all 454 Slovenian primary schools in the school year 2019/2020. The questionnaires were filled out by the 3rd-grade teachers with the support of the caretakers. Teachers rated the IAQ in the classroom as the worst in winter. We found that the teachers’ perceived IAQ in the classroom is statistically significantly associated with the micro location of the school and some of the IAQ factors. Poor IAQ is associated with reduced manual airing of classrooms due to the thermal comfort of the occupants. Interventions should be aimed at improving occupants’ adaptive behaviors to increase the frequency of natural ventilation in classrooms. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Health Impacts Related to Indoor Air Pollutants)
20 pages, 5800 KiB  
Article
Evaluation of Scikit-Learn Machine Learning Algorithms for Improving CMA-WSP v2.0 Solar Radiation Prediction
by Dan Wang, Yanbo Shen, Dong Ye, Yanchao Yang, Xuanfang Da and Jingyue Mo
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 994; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080994 - 19 Aug 2024
Viewed by 400
Abstract
This article aims to evaluate the performance of solar radiation forecasts produced by CMA-WSP v2.0 (version 2 of the China Meteorological Administration Wind and Solar Energy Prediction System) and to explore the application of machine learning algorithms from the scikit-learn Python library to [...] Read more.
This article aims to evaluate the performance of solar radiation forecasts produced by CMA-WSP v2.0 (version 2 of the China Meteorological Administration Wind and Solar Energy Prediction System) and to explore the application of machine learning algorithms from the scikit-learn Python library to improve the solar radiation prediction made by the CMA-WSP v2.0. It is found that the performance of the solar radiation forecasting from the CMA-WSP v2.0 is closely related to the weather conditions, with notable diurnal fluctuations. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) produced by the CMA-WSP v2.0 is approximately 74% between 11:00 and 13:00. However, the MAPE ranges from 193% to 242% at 07:00–08:00 and 17:00–18:00, which is greater than that observed at other daytime periods. The MAPE is relatively low (high) for both sunny and cloudy (overcast and rainy) conditions, with a high probability of an absolute percentage error below 25% (above 100%). The forecasts tend to underestimate (overestimate) the observed solar radiation in sunny and cloudy (overcast and rainy) conditions. By applying machine learning models (such as linear regression, decision trees, K-nearest neighbors, random forests regression, adaptive boosting, and gradient boosting regression) to revise the solar radiation forecasts, the MAPE produced by the CMA-WSP v2.0 is significantly reduced. The reduction in the MAPE is closely connected to the weather conditions. The models of K-nearest neighbors, random forests regression, and decision trees can reduce the MAPE in all weather conditions. The K-nearest neighbor model exhibits the most optimal performance among these models, particularly in rainy conditions. The random forest regression model demonstrates the second-best performance compared to that of the K-nearest neighbor model. The gradient boosting regression model has been observed to reduce the MAPE of the CMA-WSP v2.0 in all weather conditions except rainy. In contrast, the adaptive boosting (linear regression) model exhibited a diminished capacity to improve the CMA-WSP v2.0 solar radiation prediction, with a slight reduction in MAPE observed only in sunny (sunny and cloudy) conditions. In addition, the input feature selection has a considerable influence on the performance of the machine learning model. The incorporation of the time series data associated with the diurnal variation of solar radiation as an input feature can further improve the model’s performance. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Solar Irradiance and Wind Forecasting)
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18 pages, 4171 KiB  
Article
Long-Term Wind and Air Temperature Patterns in the Southeastern Region of Iran through Model Simulation and Ground Observations
by Nasim Hossein Hamzeh, Abbas Ranjbar Saadat Abadi, Khan Alam, Karim Abdukhakimovich Shukurov and Christian Opp
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 993; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080993 - 19 Aug 2024
Viewed by 329
Abstract
Dust storms are one of the important natural hazards that affect the lives of inhabitants all around the world, especially in North Africa and the Middle East. In this study, wind speed, wind direction, and air temperature patterns are investigated in one of [...] Read more.
Dust storms are one of the important natural hazards that affect the lives of inhabitants all around the world, especially in North Africa and the Middle East. In this study, wind speed, wind direction, and air temperature patterns are investigated in one of the dustiest cities in Sistan Basin, Zahedan City, located in southeast Iran, over a 17-year period (2004–2020) using a WRF model and ground observation data. The city is located near a dust source and is mostly affected by local dust storms. The World Meteorology Organization (WMO) dust-related codes show that the city was affected by local dust, with 52 percent of the total dust events occurring during the period (2004–2021). The city’s weather station reported that 17.5% and 43% were the minimum and maximum dusty days, respectively, during 2004–2021. The summer and July were considered the dustiest season and month in the city. Since air temperature, wind speed, and wind direction are important factors in dust rising and propagation, these meteorological factors were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the Zahedan weather station. The WRF model’s output was found to be highly correlated with the station data; however, the WRF simulation mostly overestimated when compared with station data during the study period (2004–2020). The model had a reasonable performance in wind class frequency distribution at the station, demonstrating that 42.6% of the wind was between 0.5 and 2, which is in good agreement with the station data (42% in the range of 0.5–2). So, the WRF model effectively simulated the wind class frequency distribution and the wind direction at Zahedan station, despite overestimating the wind speed as well as minimum, maximum, and average air temperatures during the 17-year period. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Haze and Related Aerosol Air Pollution in Remote and Urban Areas)
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16 pages, 9590 KiB  
Article
The Evaluation of Rainfall Forecasting in a Global Navigation Satellite System-Assisted Numerical Weather Prediction Model
by Hongwu Guo, Yongjie Ma, Zufeng Li, Qingzhi Zhao and Yuan Zhai
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 992; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080992 - 17 Aug 2024
Viewed by 458
Abstract
Accurate water vapor information is crucial for improving the quality of numerical weather forecasting. Previous studies have incorporated tropospheric water vapor data obtained from a global navigation satellite system (GNSS) into numerical weather models to enhance the accuracy and reliability of rainfall forecasts. [...] Read more.
Accurate water vapor information is crucial for improving the quality of numerical weather forecasting. Previous studies have incorporated tropospheric water vapor data obtained from a global navigation satellite system (GNSS) into numerical weather models to enhance the accuracy and reliability of rainfall forecasts. However, research on evaluating forecast accuracy for different rainfall levels and the development of corresponding forecasting platforms is lacking. This study develops and establishes a rainfall forecasting platform supported by the GNSS-assisted weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, quantitatively assessing the effect of GNSS precipitable water vapor (PWV) on the accuracy of WRF model forecasts for light rain (LR), moderate rain (MR), heavy rain (HR), and torrential rain (TR). Three schemes are designed and tested using data from seven ground meteorological stations in Xi’an City, China, in 2021. The results show that assimilating GNSS PWV significantly improves the forecast accuracy of the WRF model for different rainfall levels, with the root mean square error (RMSE) improvement rates of 8%, 15%, 19%, and 25% for LR, MR, HR, and TR, respectively. Additionally, the RMSE of rainfall forecasts demonstrates a decreasing trend with increasing magnitudes of assimilated PWV, particularly effective in the range of [50, 55) mm where the lowest RMSE is 3.58 mm. Moreover, GNSS-assisted numerical weather model shows improvements in statistical forecasting indexes such as probability of detection (POD), false alarm rate (FAR), threat score (TS), and equitable threat score (ETS) across all rainfall intensities, with notable improvements in the forecasts of HR and TR. These results confirm the high precision, visualization capabilities, and robustness of the developed rainfall forecasting platform. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Characteristics of Extreme Climate Events over China)
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11 pages, 2506 KiB  
Article
Spatial Mapping of Air Pollution Hotspots around Commercial Meat-Cooking Restaurants Using Bicycle-Based Mobile Monitoring
by Gwang-Soon Yong, Gun-Woo Mun and Kyung-Hwan Kwak
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 991; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080991 - 17 Aug 2024
Viewed by 447
Abstract
Mobile measurement techniques are increasingly utilized to monitor urban emissions, regional air quality, and air pollutant exposure assessments. This study employed a bicycle measurement method to obtain the detailed distribution of air pollutant concentrations in roadside, commercial, residential, and recreational areas. The study [...] Read more.
Mobile measurement techniques are increasingly utilized to monitor urban emissions, regional air quality, and air pollutant exposure assessments. This study employed a bicycle measurement method to obtain the detailed distribution of air pollutant concentrations in roadside, commercial, residential, and recreational areas. The study area is located in Chuncheon, South Korea, with approximately 280,000 residents. Black carbon (BC), PM2.5, and NO2 were monitored using portable devices equipped on an electric bicycle. Results showed that in the evening (6–8 p.m.), the concentrations were higher in both commercial and residential areas compared to the background location, while concentrations were notably elevated only in roadside areas in the morning (8–10 a.m.). Spatial mapping of measured concentrations revealed that the highest concentrations corresponded to areas with densely operated charbroiling meat-cooking restaurants. Additionally, it was confirmed that BC and PM2.5 emitted from the commercial areas influenced nearby recreational areas (e.g., streamside roads). In conclusion, this study demonstrated that air pollutant hotspots resulting from human activities, such as dining at commercial restaurants, significantly worsen the local air quality on a small scale. Efforts to reduce the uncontrolled emissions of air pollutants from charbroiling meat-cooking restaurants are necessary. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Urban Air Pollution, Meteorological Conditions and Human Health)
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29 pages, 23715 KiB  
Article
Forecasting In-Flight Icing over Greece: Insights from a Low-Pressure System Case Study
by Petroula Louka, Ioannis Samos and Flora Gofa
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 990; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080990 - 17 Aug 2024
Viewed by 712
Abstract
Forecasting in-flight icing conditions is crucial for aviation safety, particularly in regions with variable and complex meteorological configurations, such as Greece. Icing accretion onto the aircraft’s surfaces is influenced by the presence of supercooled water in subfreezing environments. This paper outlines a methodology [...] Read more.
Forecasting in-flight icing conditions is crucial for aviation safety, particularly in regions with variable and complex meteorological configurations, such as Greece. Icing accretion onto the aircraft’s surfaces is influenced by the presence of supercooled water in subfreezing environments. This paper outlines a methodology of forecasting icing conditions, with the development of the Icing Potential Algorithm that takes into consideration the meteorological scenarios related to icing accretion, using state-of-the-art Numerical Weather Prediction model results, and forming a fuzzy logic tree based on different membership functions, applied for the first time over Greece. The synoptic situation of an organized low-pressure system passage, with occlusion, cold and warm fronts, over Greece that creates dynamically significant conditions for icing formation was investigated. The sensitivity of the algorithm was revealed upon the precipitation, cloud type and vertical velocity effects. It was shown that the greatest icing intensity is associated with single-layer ice and multi-layer clouds that are comprised of both ice and supercooled water, while convectivity and storm presence lead to also enhancing the icing formation. A qualitative evaluation of the results with satellite, radar and METAR observations was performed, indicating the general agreement of the method mainly with the ground-based observations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Numerical Weather Prediction Models and Ensemble Prediction Systems)
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25 pages, 5889 KiB  
Article
Evolution of Dew and Rain Water Resources in Gujarat (India) between 2005 and 2021
by Rupal Budhbhatti, Anil K. Roy, Marc Muselli and Daniel Beysens
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 989; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080989 - 17 Aug 2024
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Abstract
The present study, carried out in Gujarat (India) between 2005 and 2021, aims to prepare dew and rain maps of Gujarat over a long period (17 years, from 2005 to 2021) in order to evaluate the evolution of the potential for dew and [...] Read more.
The present study, carried out in Gujarat (India) between 2005 and 2021, aims to prepare dew and rain maps of Gujarat over a long period (17 years, from 2005 to 2021) in order to evaluate the evolution of the potential for dew and rain in the state. The ratio of dew to precipitation is also determined, which is an important metric that quantifies the contribution of dew to the overall water resources. Global warming leads, in general, to a reduction in precipitation and non-rainfall water contributions such as dew. The study shows, however, a rare increase in the rainfall and dew condensation, with the latter related to an increase in relative humidity and a decrease in wind amplitudes. Rain primarily occurs during the monsoon months, while dew forms during the dry season. Although dew alone cannot resolve water scarcity, it nonetheless may provide an exigent and unignorable contribution to the water balance in time to come. According to the site, the dew–rain ratios, which are also, in general, well correlated with dew yields, can represent between 4.6% (Ahmedabad) and 37.2% (Jamnagar). The positive trend, observed since 2015–2017, is expected to continue into the future. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Analysis of Dew under Different Climate Changes)
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