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Probability

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16 views

Probability

Uploaded by

vasikar22
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probabilty

1. Addition Law (Rule) of Probability

The addition law of probability is used to find the probability of the occurrence of at least one
of two events. There are two forms of the addition law: one for mutually exclusive events and
one for non-mutually exclusive events.

 Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events AAA and BBB are mutually exclusive if
they cannot occur at the same time. For such events, the addition law is:

P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B)P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)

 Non-Mutually Exclusive Events: If two events AAA and BBB can occur at the same
time, the addition law is:

P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B)P(A∪B)=P(A)


+P(B)−P(A∩B)

2. Multiplicative Law (Rule) of Probability

The multiplicative law of probability is used to find the probability of the joint occurrence of
two events. It also has two forms based on whether the events are independent or not.

 Independent Events: Two events AAA and BBB are independent if the occurrence
of one does not affect the occurrence of the other. For such events, the multiplicative
law is:

P(A∩B)=P(A)×P(B)P(A \cap B) = P(A) \times P(B)P(A∩B)=P(A)×P(B)

 Dependent Events: If two events AAA and BBB are dependent, the probability of
their joint occurrence is given by:

P(A∩B)=P(A)×P(B∣A)P(A \cap B) = P(A) \times P(B|A)P(A∩B)=P(A)×P(B∣A)

Here, P(B∣A)P(B|A)P(B∣A) is the conditional probability of BBB given that AAA has
occurred.

3. Conditional Probability

Conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring given that another event has
already occurred. The conditional probability of BBB given AAA is denoted by P(B∣A)P(B|
A)P(B∣A) and is calculated as:

P(B∣A)=P(A∩B)P(A)P(B|A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)}P(B∣A)=P(A)P(A∩B)

4. Bayes' Theorem
Bayes' theorem relates the conditional probabilities of two events. It provides a way to update
the probability of an event based on new evidence. The theorem is stated as:

P(A∣B)=P(B∣A)×P(A)P(B)P(A|B) = \frac{P(B|A) \times P(A)}


{P(B)}P(A∣B)=P(B)P(B∣A)×P(A)

Here,

 P(A∣B)P(A|B)P(A∣B) is the posterior probability: the probability of AAA given BBB


has occurred.
 P(B∣A)P(B|A)P(B∣A) is the likelihood: the probability of BBB given AAA has
occurred.
 P(A)P(A)P(A) is the prior probability: the initial probability of AAA.
 P(B)P(B)P(B) is the marginal probability: the total probability of BBB.

Bayes' theorem is particularly useful in fields such as statistics, machine learning, and data
science for making inferences and updating beliefs based on new data.

Summary

 Addition Law: Used for finding the probability of either of two events occurring.
 Multiplicative Law: Used for finding the probability of both of two events occurring.
 Conditional Probability: The probability of an event given that another event has
occurred.
 Bayes' Theorem: A way to update the probability of an event based on new
evidence.

These fundamental concepts are the building blocks of probability theory and are widely used
in various applications.

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