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MHTCET
Mathematics

–|| Probability||–
Probability in Gambling
Probability theory is at the core of games of chance and
gambling. Casinos and game developers use probability
to design games, calculate odds, and determine pay-outs.
Players can also apply probability to make informed
decisions and improve their chances of winning.

Chapter Outline
❖ Types of events (Algebra of events, Concept of
Probability)
❖ Addition theorem and Conditional Probability
❖ Bayes' theorem and Odds
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Number of favourable cases 𝑛(𝐴)

i. Probability of an event A over a sample space 𝑆 is 𝑃(𝐴) = Total number of equally likely cases
i.e., 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑛(𝑆)

ii. Probability of an impossible event is zero. i.e., P(𝜙) = 0

iii. Probability of a sure event is one. i.e., 𝑃(𝑆) = 1, where 𝑆 is the sure event

EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS:
Two events A and B of the sample space are said to be exhaustive if 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑆 i.e., 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 contains all sample
points.

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS:

Two events A & B of the sample space 𝑆 are said to be mutually exclusive if A ∩ B = 𝜙.
i. If two events 𝐴 and 𝐵 defined on the sample space 𝑆 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive, then they are
said to be complementary events.
ii. The complement of the event 𝐴 is denoted by A′ or A or Ac .

ADDITION THEOREM:
i. If A and B are any two events defined over a sample space S,
then P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) or P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(AB)
Where P(A + B) or P(A ∪ B) = Probability of happening of events A or B and P(AB) or
P(A ∩ B) = Probability of happening of events A and B together.
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ii. If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are two mutually exclusive events, then 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0

∴ P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)

ELEMENTARY PROPERTIES OF PROBABILITY:

i. P( A′ ) = 1-P(A) i.e., P(A’) + P(A) = 1

ii 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1 for an event A

iii. P(𝜙) = 0, where 𝜙 is a null set

iv. If A ⊆ B, then P(A) ≤ P(B)

P( A ∩ B ′ ) = P( A) − P( A ∩ B)
v.
P( A′ ∩ B) = P( B) − P( A ∩ B)

P ( A ∪ B ∪ C) = P( A) + P ( B) + P (C) − P ( A ∩ B)
vi. −P( B ∩ C) − P(C ∩ A) + P( A ∩ B ∩ C)
where 𝐴, 𝐵, 𝐶 are any events.

vii. P(A ∪ B ∪ C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C), if A, B, 𝐶 are mutually exclusive events.

viii. P(AB) ≤ P(A) ≤ P(A + B) ≤ P(A) + P(B)

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY:
The conditional probability of both the events A and 𝐵 over the sample space 𝑆 is
P(A∩B) P(A∩B)
i. P(A/B) = P(B)
, where B ≠ 𝜙 ii. P(B/A) = P(A)
, where A ≠ 𝜙

MULTIPLICATION THEOREM:
If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are two events over the sample space S, then
i. P(A ∩ B) = P(B) ⋅ P(A/B) ii. 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ⋅ 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴)

INDEPENDENT EVENTS:
i. P(A/B) = P(A/B ′ ) = P(A) ii. P(B/A) = P(B/A′ ) = P(B)
iii. If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent events, then
a. P(A ∩ B) = P(A) ⋅ P(B)
𝐛. 𝐴 and 𝐵 ′ are also independent
𝐜. A′ and B ′ are also independent
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BAYES' THEOREM:
If 𝐵1 , 𝐵2 , … , 𝐵𝑛 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events and if 𝐴 is an event consequent to these 𝐵𝑖 's, then
for each i = 1,2,3, … , n,
𝑃 (𝐵𝑖 )𝑃 (𝐴/𝐵𝑖 )
𝑃 (𝐵𝑖 /𝐴) = 𝑛
∑𝑖=1 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑖 )

ODDS (RATIO OF TWO COMPLEMENTARY:

i. The odds in favour of an event A is P(A)/P(A′ )
ii. The odds against the happening of an event 𝐴 is P(A′ )/P(A)

SOME NOTATIONS FOR EVENTS:

Event Notation

Not A A

At least one of A, B occurs 𝐴∪𝐵

Both A and B occur A∩B

A occurs but not B 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵′

B occurs but not A 𝐴′ ∩ B

Neither A nor B occur A′ ∩ B ′

At least one of A, B, C 𝐴∪𝐵∪𝐶

Exactly one of A and B (A ∩ B) ∪ (A ∩ B)

All three of A, B, C 𝐴∩𝐵∩𝐶

(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶‾ ) ∪
Exactly two of A, B and C (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵‾ ∩ 𝐶) ∪
(𝐴‾ ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)

Shortcuts
1. Number of exhaustive cases of tossing n coins and the probability of non-occurrence of that
simultaneously (or of tossing a coin n times) = 𝑏
event is .
𝑎+𝑏
2n
4. If odds against an event are a:b, then the
2. Number of exhaustive cases of throwing n dice 𝑏
simultaneously (or throwing one dice n times) = probability of the occurrence of that event is 𝑎+𝑏
6n and the probability of non-occurrence of that
𝑎
3. If odds in favour of an event are 𝑎: 𝑏, then the event is 𝑎+𝑏.
𝑎
probability of the occurrence of that event is 𝑎+𝑏
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5. Probability regarding 𝑛 letters and their iii. Probability of keeping all the n letters in wrong
envelopes: If n letters corresponding to n 1 1 (−1) 𝑛
envelopes = − + ⋯+
envelopers are placed in the envelopes at 2! 3! 𝑛!

random, then iv. Probability that exactly r letters are in right

1 1 1 1 (−1) 𝑛−𝑟
i. Probability that all letters are in right envelopes envelopes = [ − 3! + 4! − ⋯ + ]
1 𝑟! 2! (𝑛−𝑟)!
= 𝑛!
v. Probability of keeping at least one letter in
ii. Probability of keeping at least one letter in right envelope = 1 − p.
1
wrong envelope = 1 − 𝑛!

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