 BASIC CONCEPT OF PROBABILITY

A probability is a number that reflects the chance or likelihood that a particular event will occur.
Probabilities can be expressed as proportions that range from 0 to 1, and they can also be
expressed as percentages ranging from 0% to 100%. A probability of 0 indicates that there is no
chance that a particular event will occur, whereas a probability of 1 indicates that an event is
certain to occur. A probability of 0.45 (45%) indicates that there are 45 chances out of 100 of the
event occurring.
Probability deals with random (or unpredictable) phenomena. When one of several things can
happen, we often must resort to attempting to assign some measurement of the likelihood of each
of the possible eventualities. Probability theory provides us with the language for doing this, as
well as the methodology.
The sample space of a random phenomenon is simply the set of all possible (basic) things that
can happen. The basic things that can happen are called outcomes. 
Reference: http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-
Modules/BS/BS704_Probability/BS704_Probability3.html
 THREE TYPES OF PROBABILITY
1. Classical:
(equally probable outcomes) Let S=sample space (set of all possible distinct outcomes). Then the
probability of an event =

2. Relative Frequency Definition

The probability of an event in an experiment is the proportion (or fraction) of times the event
occurs in a very long (theoretically infinite) series of (independent) repetitions of experiment.
(e.g. probability of heads=0.4992)
3. Subjective Probability
The probability of an event is a "best guess" by a person making the statement of the chances
that the event will happen. (e.g. 30% chance of rain)
Reference: http://www.stats.uwaterloo.ca/~dlmcleis/s230/s230_slidesc1_4.htm
 PROBABILITY RULES
There are three main rules associated with basic probability: the addition rule, the multiplication
rule, and the complement rule. You can think of the complement rule as the 'subtraction rule' if it
helps you to remember it.
1.) The Addition Rule: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
If A and B are mutually exclusive events, or those that cannot occur together, then the third term
is 0, and the rule reduces to P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B). For example, you can't flip a coin and have
it come up both heads and tails on one toss.
2.) The Multiplication Rule: P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B|A) or P(B) * P(A|B)
If A and B are independent events, we can reduce the formula to P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B). The
term independent refers to any event whose outcome is not affected by the outcome of another
event. For instance, consider the second of two coin flips, which still has a .50 (50%) probability
of landing heads, regardless of what came up on the first flip. What is the probability that, during
the two coin flips, you come up with tails on the first flip and heads on the second flip?
Let's perform the calculations: P = P(tails) * P(heads) = (0.5) * (0.5) = 0.25
3.) The Complement Rule: P(not A) = 1 - P(A)
Do you see why the complement rule can also be thought of as the subtraction rule? This rule
builds upon the mutually exclusive nature of P(A) and P(not A). These two events can never
occur together, but one of them always has to occur. Therefore P(A) + P(not A) = 1. For
example, if the weatherman says there is a 0.3 chance of rain tomorrow, what are the chances of
no rain?
Let's do the math: P(no rain) = 1 - P(rain) = 1 - 0.3 = 0.7
Reference: https://study.com/academy/lesson/basic-probability-theory-rules-formulas.html

 PROBABILITY UNDER CONDITIONS OF INDEPENDENCE AND

DEPENDENCE

 MULTIPLYING PROBABILITIES (AND) - Independent Events

Two events, A and B, are independent if the fact that A occurs does not affect the probability of
B occurring.
Some examples of independent events are:
• Landing on heads after tossing a coin AND rolling a 5 on a single 6-sided die.
• Choosing a marble from a jar AND landing on heads after tossing a coin.
• Choosing a 3 from a deck of cards, replacing it, AND then choosing an ace as the second card.
• Rolling a 4 on a single 6-sided die, AND then rolling a 1 on a second roll of the die.
• To find the probability of two independent events that occur in sequence, find the probability of
each event occurring separately, and then multiply the probabilities. This multiplication rule is
defined symbolically below. Note that multiplication is represented by AND.
• When two events, A and B, are independent, the probability of both occurring is:
Rule1: P(AandB)=P(A∩B)=P(A)·P(B)
Each of the previous examples involved two independent events that occurred in sequence.
In some cases, there was replacement of the first item before choosing the second item; this
replacement was needed in order to make the two events independent.
Multiplication Rule 1 can be extended to work for three or more independent events that occur in
sequence.
 MULTIPLYING PROBABILITIES (AND) - Dependent Events
Two events are dependent if the outcome or occurrence of the first affects the outcome or
occurrence of the second so that the probability is changed.
Now that we have accounted for the fact that there is no replacement, we can find the probability
of the dependent events in the next experiment by multiplying the probabilities of each event.
The next example involved two compound, dependent events. The probability of choosing a jack
on the second pick given that a queen was chosen on the first pick is called a dependent
probability.
Example 1
A card is chosen at random from a standard deck of 52 playing cards. Without replacing it, a
second card is chosen. What is the probability that the first card chosen is a queen and the second
card chosen is a jack?
Solution:
𝑃 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘 = 4 52
𝑃 𝑗𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑜𝑛 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘 = 4 51
𝑃 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑗𝑎𝑐𝑘
44
=  52 51
= 16 2652
=4 663
Example 2
Four cards are chosen at random from a deck of 52 cards without replacement. What is the
probability of choosing a ten, a nine, an eight and a seven in order?
Solution:
𝑃10𝑎𝑛𝑑9𝑎𝑛𝑑8𝑎𝑛𝑑7 =    52 51 50 49
= 256 6,497,400
= 32 812,175
4444
 MULTIPLYING PROBABILITIES (AND) - Conditional Probabilities (AND)
The conditional probability of an event B in relationship to an event A is the probability that
event B occurs given that event A has already occurred. The notation for conditional probability
is P(B|A) [pronounced as The probability of event B given A].
The notation used above does not mean that B is divided by A. It means the probability of event
B given that event A has already occurred. To find the probability of the two dependent events,
we use a modified version of Multiplication Rule 1, which was presented in the last lesson.
When two events, A and B, are dependent, the probability of both occurring is:
Rule 2: P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B|A)
Example 1
Mr. Santos needs two students to help him with a science demonstration for his class of 18 girls
and 12 boys. He randomly chooses one student who comes to the front of the room. He then
chooses a second student from those still seated. What is the probability that both students
chosen are girls?
Solution:
𝑃𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙1𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙2 =𝑃𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙1𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑃(𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙1𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙2) 18 17
= 30 29
= 306
870 = 51
145
Example 2
Three cards are chosen at random from a deck of 52 cards without replacement. What is the
probability of choosing 3 aces?
Solution:
𝑃3𝑎𝑐𝑒𝑠=  52 51 50
= 24 132,600
=1 5,525
432
More on Conditional Probabilities
A math teacher gave her class two tests. 25% of the class passed both tests and 42% of the class
passed the first test. What percent of those who passed the first test also passed the second test?
Analysis:
This problem describes a conditional probability since it asks us to find the probability that the
second test was passed given that the first test was passed. In the last lesson, the notation for
conditional probability was used in the statement of Multiplication Rule 2.
More on Conditional Probabilities From Rule 2:
When two events, A and B, are dependent, the probability of both occurring is:
P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B|A)
More on Conditional Probabilities
The formula for the conditional probability of an event can be derived from multiplication rule 2
as follows:
Step 1: 𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 Step 2: 𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵
= 𝑃 𝐴 ∙ 𝑃 𝐵𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∙𝑃 𝐵𝐴
start with multiplication rule 2
divide both sides of equation by P(A)
cancel P(A)s on the right side of the equation commute the equation derived the formula for
conditional probability
𝑃(𝐴)
Step 3: 𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∙𝑃 𝐵𝐴
𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴)
Step 4: 𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃𝐵𝐴 =𝑃𝐴𝑎𝑛𝑑𝐵 𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃 𝐵𝐴
Example 3
A math teacher gave her class two tests. 25% of the class passed both tests and 42% of the class
passed the first test. What percent of those who passed the first test also passed the second test?
Solution:
𝑃 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 = 𝑃 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡)
= 0.25 0.42
= 0.60 = 60%
Example 4
A jar contains black and white marbles. Two marbles are chosen without replacement. The
probability of selecting a black marble and then a white marble is 0.34, and the probability of
selecting a black marble on the first draw is 0.47. What is the probability of selecting a white
marble on the second draw, given that the first marble drawn was black?
Solution:
𝑃 𝑤h𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘 = 𝑃 𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑤h𝑖𝑡𝑒 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘)
0.34 0.47
= 0.72 = 72%
Example 5
The probability that it is Friday and that a student is absent is 0.03. Since there are 5 school days
in a week, the probability that it is Friday is 0.2. What is the probability that a student is absent
given that today is Friday?
Solution:
𝑃 𝑎𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑓𝑟𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑦 = 𝑃 𝑎𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑓𝑟𝑖𝑑
Reference: https://bolt.mph.ufl.edu/6050-6052/unit-3/module-7/
 CONCEPT OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
A probability distribution is a function that describes the likelihood of obtaining the possible
values that a random variable can assume. In other words, the values of the variable vary based
on the underlying probability distribution. Suppose you draw a random sample and measure the
heights of the subjects. As you measure heights, you can create a distribution of heights. This
type of distribution is useful when you need to know which outcomes are most likely, the spread
of potential values, and the likelihood of different results.
Reference: https://statisticsbyjim.com/basics/probability-distributions/