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RAISINA DEBATES JUN 28 2019

ASEAN’s Indo-Pacific outlook: An analysis

PREMESHA SAHA

ASEAN INDIA-ASEAN INDO-PACIFIC

The ten member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has adopted the
‘ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific’ after more than a year of negotiations in the
recently concluded (20th to 23rd June 2019) ASEAN Senior Officials Meeting (SOM

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held in Bangkok, Thailand. The deliberations on the need for the ASEAN to evolve a
unified vision and strategy for the Indo-Pacific began after US President Trump
proposed the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy during his Asia tour in 201
and at the 2017 APEC Summit in Vietnam. Countries like Australia, France, India and
Japan had also come up with their own individual visions and strategies for
cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region and therefore some countries in the ASEAN l
Indonesia, Thailand did not want the Southeast region to be sidelined and left out o
this new geopolitical game.

The main initiative for drafting the ASEAN vision of the Indo-Pacific was taken by
Indonesia. It proposed a distinct ASEAN Indo-Pacific approach at a foreign ministers
retreat in January 2018 and has led the discussion since then. Indonesia taking the
in this effort can be for many factors, firstly the current Indonesian government has
openly expressed its goal for Indonesia to evolve as a primary power from its curren
status as a middle power in the geostrategic theatre of the Indo-Pacific. Secondly,
some scholars like Evan Laksmana of Centre for Strategic and International Studies
(CSIS) Jakarta has mentioned that Indonesia might have been uncomfortable with
existing Indo-Pacific visions proposed by regional powers and wished to offer an
alternative ASEAN-centric vision instead. Indonesia did not want to bandwagon to
either America’s FOIP or China’ BRI. Given Indonesia’s image of being the ‘primus in
pares’ in the regional grouping, this initiative of coming up with an ASEAN vision of
Indo-Pacific would help in elevating Indonesia’s image in the international fora as w
as among the primary players in the Indo-Pacific like India, US, Australia and Japan,
who have for long championed for the archipelagic nation to play a greater role in t
Indian Ocean region. This effort of Indonesia would also allay the fear of the
international community that the ASEAN’s importance in the country’s foreign polic
calculus has been relegated now; given that the Indian Ocean and the broader Indo
Pacific have become the primary areas of interest for Indonesia.

For the other member countries there was the desire to take full advantage of
Southeast Asia’s strategic location which is in the heart of the Indo-Pacific region. T
primary push for finally concluding the ‘ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific’ even af
the recent news of Singapore’s demand to conduct further meetings and discussion
before the final adoption of this document came with the growing US-China trade w
This trade war has been negatively affecting the economies of many Southeast Asia

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countries as is evident with Singapore’s slowing economic growth. Additionally the

regional countries are being forced to take sides in this economic tug of war. This w
clear from Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s (Jokowi) statement in the Jakarta P
“the outlook was increasingly relevant to the world’s developments, as the trade w
between the US and China had not shown any signs of reconcilement and as there w
a concern that the trade war is growing into a multi-front war that could have an
impact on the security and stability of the region.”

This document finally outlines the organization’s concept and strategy of the Indo-
Pacific, in which the Asia-Pacific and the Indian Ocean regions have been regarded a
the most dynamic expanse and centre of economic growth. The centrality of the
ASEAN has been emphasized amidst the geopolitical shifts that this region is
encountering like the ongoing tussle between the US and China. By ASEAN Centrali
the ‘Outlook’ denotes that the grouping wants to maintain its central role in the
evolving regional architecture in Southeast Asia and its surrounding regions. The aim
not to create new mechanisms or replacing existing ones; rather, it is an ‘Outlook’
intended to enhance ASEAN’s Community building process and to strengthen and g
new momentum for existing ASEAN-led mechanisms such as the East Asia Summit
(EAS), as platforms for dialogue and implementation of the Indo–Pacific cooperatio
Besides this, the document impinges upon a rules-based order anchored upon
international law, openness, transparency, inclusivity and commitment to advancing
economic engagement in the region. In this regard four areas of cooperation- marit
cooperation; connectivity; UN Sustainable Development Goals 2030; and economic
development have been put forward for engaging with other countries in the Indo-
Pacific.

While the intensifying US-China trade war may have been the main push factor for t
adoption of the ‘ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific’, but in the document according to
scholars like Ibrahim Almutaqqi of the Habibie Centre in Jakarta there is hardly any
mention of the ongoing US-China trade war or even the other strategic challenges
the region is facing which compelled ASEAN to adopt its own Indo-Pacific outlook. T
document does not also provide some measures by which the ASEAN will be able to
navigate these strategic challenges. Though it has been pointed out in the key
elements or principles of the Indo-Pacific outlook that a rules based order should b
maintained and the Indo-Pacific region should be looking at achieving “dialogue and

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cooperation instead of rivalry”, but unlike the policy papers and the strategic
documents of other countries like US, Australia and also Japan where the threats an
challenges have been clearly outlined, the ASEAN document chose to take the safe
the diplomatic route. This will be a positive factor in boosting India-ASEAN ties as P
Modi’s 2018 Shangri-La Dialogue keynote speech reflected, India too has taken a m
subtle attitude towards China and a diplomatic stance in pointing out the “China
threat” in global platforms. Nonetheless issues like the US-China economic turf and
need for a quick conclusion of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
Agreement (RCEP), the South China Sea dispute (the need for a quick conclusion of
Code of Conduct) and the recent skirmish between the Filipinos and the Chinese in
South China Sea were discussed in the meeting.

What needs to be seen now is how China will respond to the ASEAN Outlook on the
Indo-Pacific, given its reservations on the use of the term Indo-Pacific. Now with
ASEAN also comfortably using the Indo-Pacific terminology, whether this will have a
effect on the Chinese attitude when it comes to the ongoing deliberations on the
Code of Conduct on the South China Sea also only time can say. Given the fact that
‘Chinese threat’ have not been mentioned outright in the document might probably
not irk the Chinese sentiments to a great extent.

The division within the ASEAN is quite apparent now given the failed attempts in
coming to agreements on several issues. Therefore, given the differing opinions an
interpretations of the member countries on the Indo-Pacific, South China Sea issue
well as relations with the US and China, it is praiseworthy that an ASEAN statement
the Indo-Pacific has been released after eighteen months of deliberations and
negotiations. This document can be seen as the first step in the evolution of an ASE
concept of the Indo-Pacific and now more discussions on the Indo-Pacific can be
expected to take place in future ASEAN meetings and mostly on the platform of th
EAS.

The document does lay out areas of cooperation to engage with other like-minded
players in the region. Given that India also champions the need for a free, open,
inclusive, rules-based Indo-Pacific, it has warmly welcomed the ASEAN Outlook on t
Indo-Pacific.  There are several areas where India can work with ASEAN for enhancin
cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. There has been mention of exploring potential

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synergies with sub-regional frameworks, such as, IORA, BIMSTEC, BIMP-EAGA, Meko
sub-regional cooperation frameworks. Thereby considering the importance being
given by the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and t
BIMSTEC, it provides an opportunity for India to invite countries like Indonesia,
Singapore who are also Bay of Bengal littorals to be a part of BIMSTEC and work
alongside India for greater cooperation, connectivity and security in the BOB. For
instance India can use the Sabang port in Sumatra as a medium of connectivity with
Indonesia in the BOB. Maritime cooperation and connectivity are other areas of
cooperation where India can work with the ASEAN countries. The increasing
integration and interconnection among Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean countries
require investments and efforts to build connectivity infrastructures, including
physical, institutional and people-to-people linkages. PM Modi’s Sagarmala project,
Trilateral Highway and its extension to CLV (Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam), PM Modi and
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC) can
complement and support the existing Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity (MPAC)
2025.

The views expressed above belong to the author(s).

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