ASEAN'S OUTLOOK ON

THE INDO-PACIFIC AND

U.S.-CHINA RIVALRY

EDITED BY
POU SOTHIRAK,
BRADLEY J. MURG
AND CHARADINE PICH
This publication has been funded by the Australian Department of Foreign
Affairs and Trade through The Asia Foundation's Ponlok Chomnes: Data and
Dialogue for Development in Cambodia program. The views expressed in this
publication are the authors’ alone and are not necessarily the views of the
Australian Government, The Asia Foundation, and the Cambodian Institute
for Cooperation and Peace.

Cover Photo: ASEAN needs bigger voice in US-China rivalry

Source: https://asiatimes.com/2019/11/asean-needs-bigger-voice-in-us-china-
rivalry/

Back Photo: Traditional Dance during the Gala Dinner hosted by

Cambodia’s Prime Minister during the ASEAN2022 Summit
Source: Editor’s own collection
ASEAN'S OUTLOOK ON
THE INDO-PACIFIC AND
U.S.-CHINA RIVALRY

JANUARY 2023
PHNOM PENH, CAMBODIA
 INTRODUCTION

In recent years, it is undeniable that the US and China have and continue to compete for
influence and power in the Indo-Pacific – with the concept “Indo-Pacific” itself even
becoming a point of debate between the two sides. This competition is demonstrated by
a preponderance of evidence ranging from US imposed sanctions on high-ranking,
Chinese government officials to strong criticism of Beijing’s expansionistic behavior in
the South China Sea. The US Indo-Pacific Strategy has specifically identified China as an
expansionist power. Under this strategy, the US has also accused China of undermining
human rights and international law, including freedom of navigation, with Washington
also highlighting its willingness to work with allies and partners, including ASEAN, to
block what many have considered to be China’s revisionist approach to the region.

Concomitantly, China stepped up and strengthened its engagement with Southeast Asia.
In November 2021, China and ASEAN announced the establishment of the China-
ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. During the 2021 China-ASEAN Summit,
China reassured ASEAN of the fact that China was and would always be a good friend,
a good neighbor and a good partner. China’s foreign aid and concessionary lending
through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) continues to flow into the region with Beijing-
funded infrastructure projects an increasingly ubiquitous on both the physical and
development policy landscape. From Beijing’s perspective, Washington’s continued,
strong involvement with ASEAN is of increasing concern. Despite China’s recent
reassurance of being benign in the context of ASEAN, this is by no way is indicative of
the views of ASEAN states that have been on the receiving end of Chinese pressure
tactics.

Against this backdrop, ASEAN issued a policy statement, the “ASEAN Outlook on the
Indo-Pacific” or “The Outlook” in short. With this document, ASEAN envisions itself to
be the leading driver of the design of economic and security architecture in its region of
the Indo-Pacific. The document has received both praise and criticism.

On the positive side of the ledger, many observers contend that the Outlook is a timely
reflection of Southeast Asia’s position in an increasingly contested region. It clearly
indicates the position of ASEAN while trying to balance the pressures imposed by the
US and China. This should mean that ASEAN will seek to maintain good relations with
China while also reassuring the US of the fact that ASEAN would not become part of a
Chinese sphere of influence.

On the negative side, observers have perceived the Outlook to be merely an empty
statement that does not contain any concrete actions or mechanisms. In this sense, the
Outlook does not contain meaningful action plans or next steps that are likely to prevent
the US, China, or other major powers from interfering in its regional affairs. Likewise,

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the decades-old perception that ASEAN is a talking shop continues to bedevil the
institution in light of a laundry list of challenges regularly discussed but still unresolved
and continued questions as to whether ASEAN institutions and the “ASEAN Way” are
fit for purpose in a rapidly evolving geopolitical context.

Recognizing these contrasting positions, an important next step is to understand how

each ASEAN member state views the Outlook, its role, and its future development in the
context of their respective bilateral relationships with China and the US. While the
Outlook was agreed upon based on the principle of consensus among all ASEAN
member states, each member state has a distinct relationship with the US and China,
there is no “one size fits all model” of bilateral relations. Thus, the way in which each
member views the Outlook in the context of the US-China competition will have impacts
on the future trajectory of ASEAN and the Outlook itself as it evolves in the coming years.
At the same time, there is the question as to whether the Outlook can be framed and
developed not simply as a holding mechanism that seeks to tamp down or find an exit
for Southeast Asia from the challenges of Sino-American competition (another “Principle
of ASEAN Centrality”) – rather whether it can serve as a bridge that is able to begin a
process of de-escalating Sino-American tensions and moving towards something
resembling a framework for peaceful coexistence in the Indo-Pacific for the two great
powers.

It is with this background and understanding that this book has been compiled and
edited by the CICP editorial team in which scholars from various Southeast Asian states
examine the AOIP at the regional and country levels, while incorporating policy
recommendations as to potential next steps for ASEAN.

The first four chapters of the book discuss the overall sub-theme of the AOIP and
ASEAN’s Future Outlook on the Indo-Pacific. CICP’s Pou Sothirak and Po Sovinda set
out the case for the importance and value of the AOIP in the context of rising Sino-
American competition. Deth Sok Udom examines the Outlook in comparative context,
looking at it in relation to American and Japanese Indo-Pacific strategies and its place
during Cambodia’s recently completed ASEAN chairmanship. Lawrence Anderson
provides a deep dive into the contemporary challenges of Sino-American relations, the
question of Taiwan, and the next steps for ASEAN as a whole. Simon Tay, Jessica Wau,
and Janessa Kong consider the question of economic rulemaking in the region, Asian
reactions to Washington’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and the strategies
ASEAN might take as a group and as individual states in the future of rulemaking.

The subsequent three chapters of the book broadly focus on another sub-theme of the
ASEAN as a Bridge between the US and China. Tho Nguyen and Bao Nguyen examine
the concepts of mutual understanding and boundary crossing in order to propose
concrete next steps for ASEAN’s role and engagement – highlighting the economic role
of China and the security role of the United States. Kasira Cheeppensook looks at the

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development and origins of the Outlook and its role and meaning in the context of Thai
foreign policy. Finally, Geetha Govindasamy provides an in-depth case study of
Malaysian policy towards China and the United States and sets out how Kuala Lumpur
has sought to engage both great powers while avoiding confrontation.

The diverse perspectives of the authors set out in this text provide essential history,
analysis, and a solid grounding for scholars, diplomats, journalists, and others interested
in the myriad, competing factors that will shape the development of the Outlook in the
coming years and a means to understand it in comparison and in dialogue with the Indo-
Pacific policies of other leading actors in the region.

Ambassador Pou Sothirak

Executive Director
Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace (CICP)

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-4-
 LIST OF BIOGRAPHIES

Ambassador Pou Sothirak

Executive Director, CICP

In addition to being the Executive Director of the Cambodian

Institute for Cooperation and Peace (CICP) since 2013,
Ambassador Pou Sothirak also serves as Advisor to the Royal
Government of Cambodia as of February 2014.

He was appointed as Secretary of State of the Ministry of Foreign

Affairs and International Cooperation of Cambodia from September 2013 to January
2014. He was a Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies
(ISEAS) in Singapore from January 2009 to December 2012. He also served as Cambodian
Ambassador to Japan from April 2005 to November 2008. He was elected Cambodian
Member of Parliaments twice during the national general election in 1993 and 2003. He
was appointed as Minister of Industry Mines and Energy of the Royal Government of
Cambodia from 1993 to 1998.

He graduated from Oregon State University in the U.S. in March 1981 with a Bachelor
Degree in Electrical and Computer Engineering and worked as an engineer at the Boeing
Company in Seattle, Washington from 1981-1985. He has written extensively on various
issues concerning the development of Cambodia and the region.

Dr. Bradley Jensen Murg

Distinguished Fellow & Senior Advisor, CICP

Dr. Bradley J. Murg is Associate Professor of Political Science

and Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Administrative
Sciences at Paragon International University. Additionally, Dr.
Murg holds positions as Distinguished Fellow and Senior
Advisor at CICP; Senior Research Advisor at Future Forum; and
Distinguished Fellow at the Royal University of Law and
Economics. His work, supported by grants from the Social Science Research Council and
the International Research and Exchanges Board, focuses on contemporary international
relations in Southeast Asia; the political economy of foreign aid; and the Greater Mekong
Subregion as a whole. Dr. Murg graduated Phi Beta Kappa from Emory University with
a B.A./M.A. in philosophy, received an MSc. in economic history from the London
School of Economics, and his M.A. and Ph.D. in political science from the University of
Washington.

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 Ambassador Lawrence Anderson
Senior Fellow, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies

In a 37-year career in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA),

Lawrence Anderson served at the Singapore Permanent Mission
to the United Nations in New York and Singapore Embassies in
the US and Thailand. He was appointed Ambassador to
Cambodia (2004-2007), as well as Ambassador to Saudi Arabia
and concurrently Ambassador to Bahrain (2013-2019).

Back home in MFA, Mr. Anderson at various times held appointments covering
Singapore’s bilateral relations with its neighbors in Southeast Asia; Regional policy and
strategic security issues involving ASEAN and its relations with the Dialogue Partners;
overseeing Singapore’s Technical Assistance Cooperation Programmes; as well as
managed Singapore’s relations with the European Union and other European countries;
and Australia, New Zealand and the South Pacific islands.

Mr. Anderson retired from the Foreign Service in late 2021 after a secondment to the
Asia-Europe Foundation. He is currently Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore. His
areas of interest include regional security in the Asia-Pacific and beyond, ASEAN, and
Sino-US strategic competition. He is a Senior Fellow at the MFA Diplomatic Academy.
He is also Singapore’s Representative to the Advisory Board of the ASEAN Institute for
Peace and Reconciliation (ASEAN-IPR).

Dr. Sok Udom Deth

Rector, Paragon International University
Senior Fellow, CICP

Dr. Sok Udom DETH is an Associate Professor of International

Relations and the Rector of Paragon International University
(formerly Zaman University). Dr. Deth received his bachelor’s
degree with High honor’s in Sociology from Boğaziçi University
(Turkey), a master’s degree in Southeast Asian Studies from Ohio University (USA), and
a Ph.D. in Southeast Asian Studies from Humboldt University of Berlin (Germany). He
is a member of the Board of Academic Advisors of Future Forum and a Senior Fellow at
the Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace (CICP). Dr. Deth is credited with
several academic publications and has been invited to give guest lectures at various
institutions/universities. Occasionally, he shares his insights on local and regional media
about Cambodian and regional affairs as well.

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 Ambassador Simon Tay
Chairman, Singapore Institute of International Studies (SIIA)

Simon SC Tay is a public intellectual as well as an advisor to

major corporations and policymakers. Based in Singapore, he is
Chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, the
country’s oldest think tank that has been ranked as the best
independent think tank in Asia. He is concurrently a tenured
Associate Professor, teaching international law at the National
University of Singapore Faculty of Law and has also taught at Harvard Law School, the
Fletcher School and Yale University. Prof Tay is also Senior Consultant at
WongPartnership, a leading Asian law firm of some 300 lawyers and with offices in
ASEAN, China and the Middle East. He served on boards for leading global companies
including MUFG Bank of Japan, Toyota Japan, and Deutsche Boerse (Asia), and was
previously Corporate Advisor to Temasek Holdings (2006-09). Prof Tay is appointed as
an Ambassador for Singapore, currently accredited to Greece on a non-residential basis.
From 1992 to 2019, he served in a number of public appointments for Singapore including
as Chairman of the National Environment Agency (2002-08); an Expert and Eminent
Person in the ASEAN Regional Forum (2002–2019); an independent Member of
Parliament (1997-2001); and to coordinate the country’s equivalent of the Peace Corps
(1990-93).

Jessica Wau
Deputy Director of ASEAN Programme, SIIA

Jessica leads the ASEAN programme at the Singapore Institute

of International Affairs, the country’s oldest think tank and
founding member of the ASEAN Institutes of Strategic and
International Studies (ASEAN-ISIS) Network of think tanks. She
is responsible for driving research, reports and conversations on
ASEAN matters and its key economies of Indonesia, Malaysia,
Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam. Her work requires her to track policy trends and
developments in Southeast Asia, which she analyses to provide advisory services to
multinationals in the region. Jessica has worked on a series of dialogues on ASEAN
Centrality and Collective Leadership on pertinent issues including, trade, infrastructure
and the Indo-Pacific. Currently, her work focuses on building SIIA's ASEAN
digitalisation programme, proposing a collaboration with digital economy stakeholders
to offer research and analysis on ‘Charting ASEAN’s Digital Future’. She was previously
an Associate Producer at CNBC covering Asia’s major markets and economies. She
specialized in ‘Regional Studies: The Asia Pacific’ as part of her master’s programme on
International Affairs at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University
of Singapore.

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 Janessa Kong
Policy Research Analyst of the ASEAN Programme, SIIA

Janessa works on the ASEAN programme at the Singapore Institute

of International Affairs, the country’s oldest think tank and
founding member of the ASEAN Institutes of Strategic and
International Studies (ASEAN-ISIS) Network of think tanks. She is
responsible for conducting policy research, reports and engaging in
conversations on ASEAN matters and its key economies of
Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam. Her work
requires her to track political and economic developments in Southeast Asia, which she
analyses to provide advisory services to multinationals in the region. Janessa is part of
the core team planning the ASEAN-Asia Forum (AAF), the Institute’s annual flagship
forum which identifies pertinent issues in ASEAN. Currently, her work focuses helping
to build SIIA's ASEAN digitalisation programme, proposing a collaboration with digital
economy stakeholders to offer research and analysis on how to go about achieving an
ASEAN Digital Community. She was previously a Research Analyst at Kantar focusing
on delivering insights to brands and driving growth. She graduated from the Singapore
Management University with a degree in Political Science and Corporate
Communications with great distinction.

Kasira Cheeppensook
Assistant Professor, Chulalongkorn University

Kasira Cheeppensook, MPhil (Cantab), PhD is Assistant

Professor at Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn
University (Department of International Relations), Thailand.
Kasira is currently Director of Political Science Doctoral
Programme, Deputy Dean for Academic Affairs and Deputy
Director of the Centre for Social and Development Studies,
Faculty of Political Science. Kasira serves as member committee
in the Board of ASEAN Association of Thailand supported by the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs. She was invited to teach at Institute of Advanced Naval Studies and Air
Command and Staff College as well as Thammasat University.

Her research interests include ASEAN, normative transition and security in Asia-Pacific.
She also provided expert consultations to the UN Office of Genocide Prevention and
Responsibility to Protect in developing modules regarding atrocity prevention, as well
as worked with the UNODC, UNDP, and National Security Council of Thailand in
preventing violent extremism (PVE).

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 Geetha Govindasamy
Senior Lecturer, University of Malaya
Senior Visiting Fellow, CICP

Dr Geetha Govindasamy obtained her PhD from Monash

University, Australia, MA from the International University of
Japan, M.Phil from Queens' College, Cambridge University, UK.
She is an expert on East Asian international relations. She
teaches courses related to East Asian regional affairs. Generally,
she publishes more on inter-Korean issues and East Asian interactions. Her publications
can be found in the local and international journals, UM Press and other reputable
publishers. Thus far, she has been a recipient of various research grants from Korea
Foundation, Sumitomo Foundation and local funding. Her networking experiences
include academic exchanges at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Korea University,
Institute of Far Easter Studies (IFES), Kyungnam University and the Graduate Institute,
Geneva (IHEID). Dr Govindasamy was also invited to attend the Study of the United
States Institute (SUSI) Exchange programe for acadermics in 2013 and in 2019, she was
invited by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan to be part of an academic tour to Tokyo
and Okinawa. Dr Govindasamy is a member of Malaysian Scholars on Korea (MASK)
and the Malaysia-Japan Association (MAJAS) and simultaneously is the Managing
Editor of Wilayah: International Journal of East Asian Studies. At present, she is a Senior
Visiting Fellow at the Cambodian Institute for Peace and Cooperation.

Nguyen Ngoc Tho

Associate Professor, Vietnam National University

Nguyen Ngoc Tho is Associate Professor in Cultural Studies,

majoring in East Asian and Vietnamese folklore and social ritual
studies. He concentrates on rituals, customs, and daily life of the
Vietnamese and ethnic Chinese peoples under the East Asian
perspective. He obtained his PhD degree in Vietnam National
University – Ho Chi Minh City, was a visiting scholar to Sun Yat-sen University in 2008,
the Harvard Yenching Institute during the 2017–2018 academic year, Harvard
University’s Asia Centre in 2018–2019, Boston University in 2019-2020, and Brandeis
University in 2020-2021. He is currently the Dean of Faculty of Cultural Studies,
University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vietnam National University – Ho Chi
Minh City. Nguyen Ngoc Tho is the author of six books and more than 40 journal articles
published in Vietnam and overseas. He holds the co-authorship of a dozen other books,
book chapters and journal articles. He is also a member of the Standing Committee of
The National Foundation for Science and Technology Development (NAFOSTED) of
Vietnam (Council of Culture, Arts, and Mass Media).

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 Huynh Hoang Ba
PhD Student, Vietnam National University

Huynh Hoang Ba, MA., Ph.D. Student of University of Social

Sciences and Humanities, Vietnam National University – Ho
Chi Minh City. He majors in overseas Chinese cultural studies
as well as socio-cultural exchanges between Southeast Asians
and local Chinese communities. He is author and co-author of 8
articles and book chapters published in Vietnam, PRC, and
Taiwan.

Po Sovinda
Research Fellow, CICP
PhD Candidate, Griffith University

Sovinda Po is a Senior Fellow at the Cambodian Institute for

Cooperation and Peace and a PhD Candidate in International
Relations at Griffith University, Australia. His journal articles and
commentaries have appeared in Journal of Current Southeast
Asian Affairs, Explorations, Issues & Insights (Pacific Forum), East
Asia Forum, New Mandala, The Diplomat, Australian Outlook, The Interpreter, Khmer
Times, etc. His comments about the Indo-Pacific issues have been quoted in Voice of
America (Khmer service), Radio Free Asia (Khmer service), the Wire Radio (Australia),
Thmey Thmey International, and the Phnom Penh Post. His research interest includes
small states’ foreign policy, and great power’s grand strategy in the Indo-Pacific region.

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 CONTENTS

THE ASEAN OUTLOOK ON THE INDO-PACIFIC AND THE BIG 13

POWER RIVALRY
Pou Sothirak and Po Sovinda
Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace

THE ASEAN OUTLOOK ON THE INDO-PACIFIC (AOIP): 21

CAMBODIA’S PERSPECTIVE
Deth Sok Udom
Rector, Paragon International University
Senior Fellow, CICP

WHITHER US-CHINA COMPETITION AND STRENGTHENING ASEAN 33

FOR REGIONAL PEACE, STABILITY, AND SECURITY
Lawrence Anderson
Senior Fellow, RSIS

REGIONAL ECONOMIC RULEMAKING IN A DISORDERED WORLD 45

Simon Tay, Jessica Wau, and Janessa Kong
Singapore Institute of International Affairs

BUILDING CROSSING BOUNDARIES AND PEACE IN ASEAN: A SOCIAL 63

SCIENCE MECHANISM TO GENERATE SINCERITY AND SHARED EXPERIENCE
Nguyen Ngoc Tho and Huynh Hoang Bo
Vietnam National University

AOIP AND ASEAN’S FUTURE OUTLOOK ON THE INDO-PACIFIC: 73

THE THAI PERSPECTIVE
Kasira Cheeppensook
Assistant Professor, Chulalongkorn University

ASEAN, MALAYSIA, AND THE US-CHINA RIVALRY: AVOIDING 87

CONFRONTATION AND UPHOLDING ENGAGEMENT
Geetha Govindasamy
Senior Lecturer, University of Malaya

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-12-
 THE ASEAN OUTLOOK ON THE INDO-PACIFIC AND
THE GREAT POWER RIVALRY

Pou Sothirak and Po Sovinda

Introduction

The unanimous adoption of the ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific (AOIP) at the 34th
ASEAN Summit in Bangkok in June 2019 demonstrated a common ASEAN position
beyond Southeast Asia and it explicitly included the wider Indo-Pacific region. The
Outlook should be seen as an important codification, a vital next step in order to develop
and to expand the application of "the ASEAN Way" outside of its traditional domain.
With this Outlook, ASEAN wishes to “enhance ASEAN-led mechanisms to better face
challenges and seize opportunities arising from the current and future regional and
global environments” (ASEAN 2019).

We examine how ASEAN used the Outlook to manage its relationship with major
powers and how the “ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific”, hereinafter “the Outlook”
contributed therein. In answering these questions, this chapter particularly discusses the
ways in which ASEAN projects itself as a regional player that can play a significant role
in shaping the security architecture not just in Southeast Asia, but in the broader Indo-
Pacific region.

The first section describes the geopolitical reality of great power competition between
the US and China and the implications for ASEAN. The second situates ASEAN's
Outlook in the context of the Indo-Pacific concept, discussing some challenges that the
ASEAN countries face while trying to implement their own policies.

Geopolitical Power Rivalry in the Indo-Pacific and Implications for ASEAN

The regional architecture in the Indo-Pacific region has been undergoing a profound
transformation. With China’s re-emergence as a great regional power, it has initiated
some ambitious, perhaps even grand strategies, including the Belt and Road Initiative
(BRI), and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Some Chinese as well as
foreign scholars contend that these initiatives are part of an effort to challenge the US
position and replace it in the region and beyond (Wang 2016; Yu 2017).

Since taking power in 2012, Chinese President Xi Jinping has been relentless in
developing China’s economic, diplomatic, and political influence on a global scale as well
as building up its military strength and power projection capabilities. At the 2017 party
congress, President Xi said China will become a global leader by the middle of the

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century and amplified policies to accelerate the growth of China’s comprehensive
national power in support of the country’s “great rejuvenation” by 2049 through the
assertive use of all instruments of national power, including both economic and military.
Beijing’s strategic priorities will inevitably challenge US economic and military might as
China aspires to become a global power, changing the unipolar world towards a
multipolar or bipolar structure in which it will be the other super power through
strengthening of its power projection capacity in the region and by expanding its
economic and military power globally in order to achieve its strategic objectives and
protect its core interests. However, Beijing has repeatedly denied this ambition.

Washington realizes that its position in the Indo-Pacific region faces mounting
challenges, particularly from the People's Republic of China. The US believes that only
the PRC with combining economic, diplomatic, military, and technological might can
rival the American preeminent position in the long run as China continues to rise and
seeks to become the world’s most influential power.

With the Indo-Pacific Strategy, the U.S. seeks to defend both its interests and vision for
the future and the strengthening of the liberal international system and to keep it
grounded in shared values to overcome the 21st-century challenges. The objective – as
noted by some American policymakers - is not to change the PRC but to shape the
strategic environment in which it operates, building a balance of influence in the world
that is maximally favorable to the United States as Washington seeks to manage
competition with the PRC responsibly.

When dealing with the US and China, ASEAN faces multiple challenges. These involve
the different ideological principles, choice of political system in their respective
countries, normative perceptions as to how the international system should work in the
global, regional, and individual country basis, and how they conduct their foreign policy
with each other as well as in other bilateral relationships. The intensification of the US
and China rivalry flared up acutely during the last round of the Shangri-La Dialogue
when the American and Chinese defense leaders offered their respective visions for the
future of the region. Broadly speaking, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin articulated
America’s positive vision for the region, while his Chinese counterpart, Defense Minister
General Wei Fenghe, focused on how China will be important to the future of Asia and
why it would be a mistake for any country to impede on Chinese core interest.

While emphasizing how the United States views the Indo-Pacific as the strategic center
of gravity for American interests in the 21st century, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin
focused on the revitalization of the alliance system to tighten their bonds to deal with
Chinese assertiveness which the US and its allies perceive as detrimental to the liberal
international system.

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Chinese Defense Minister Gen. Wei Fenghe’s presentation, on the other hand, was more
acute, stressing that China’s rise and its continued development cannot be stopped and
China cannot be isolated or excluded from the region. Gen. Wei warned that American
attempts to form exclusive blocs (e.g., through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or the
AUKUS pact) would split the region and undermine the interests of all.

As the U.S. and China continue to compete in order to extend their spheres of hegemony,
all countries are inescapably drawn into the complexities of this global competition.
International stability now hinges on whether the world order will be reshaped toward
a more China-centric order, downgrading U.S. influence. The distribution of the
capabilities of both countries, both soft and hard, will be determined by their relentless
rivalries, signaling the arrival of a new bipolar world. It is in this context that the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) must remain vigilant, creative, and
bold so as to ensure ASEAN’s continued relevance, viability, and vitality. ASEAN needs
to go beyond the consensual way and non-substantive reaction in dealing today’s
pressing challenges, ranging from traditional and non-traditional threats which are
persistently testing ASEAN relevance.

During Cambodia's ASEAN Chairmanship this year, the renewed solidarity among
ASEAN leaders amidst rapid geopolitical shifts have re-emerged around the Outlook
and the debate is now about whether this is a meaningful initiative that could re-shape
the Indo-Pacific's politico-security architecture to ensure continued relevance of the
ASEAN Centrality among member states, boost up collective leadership, and instill a
clearer and more strategic direction to help the regional bloc maintain its strategic
autonomy by resisting pressure to choose side between the two biggest powers.

In light of these realities, ASEAN needs to prove that the Outlook can effectively assist
the bloc in navigating safely into the uncharted domain of the wider Indo-Pacific.

ASEAN's Outlook in the context of the Indo-Pacific concept

Since the very early on, ASEAN has always been willing to play a leading role and in a
“driver’s seat” in the regional security architecture. Since the release of the Outlook, there
have been many short commentaries on it, but relatively little academic discourse.

The Outlook is the reflection of a carefully crafted and negotiated declaration that
facilitates ASEAN's dual strategy to preserve its centrality in the Indo-Pacific region
while bolstering its capacity to continue an institutional hedging strategy to maintain its
strategic autonomy. As a regional organization of small and middle powers, ASEAN is
often pressured by external forces in ways that threaten to marginalize it on regional
issues. The Outlook affirms a clear indication that the grouping neither wishes to align
itself with one power nor welcome any pressure to do so. ASEAN has used institutional
hedging to manage its relationships with the great powers. This approach was effective

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during the Cold War when ASEAN strongly upheld neutrality and norms of non-
violence. ASEAN’s effort to maintain positive relations with all major powers to sustain
the balance of forces in the region provides space for its members and the institution to
maneuver and maximize benefit from the competing large powers.

The fact that ASEAN uses the term “Indo-Pacific” does not mean that ASEAN pursues
institutional bandwagoning with the Quad countries (Japan, U.S. Australia, and India).
To be precise, the Outlook is not about Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy like those of
Japan, the US or other European countries. The Outlook presents a unique vision of what
the Indo-Pacific region should look like. The term only signifies the ASEAN awareness
of the increasing concern about the rise of China in the U.S. and the other Quad countries.
It is evident through the first paragraph of the first page that states of the Outlook: “…
the rise of material powers, i.e. economic and military, requires avoiding deepening of mistrust,
miscalculation, and patterns of behavior based on a zero-sum game”.1 It also reflect ASEAN’s
awareness that “Indo-Pacific” places it more centrally in the picture as compared to
“Asia-Pacific.” Thus, ASEAN’s use of “Indo-Pacific” is different from the U.S. and
Japan’s usage, and it also uses the word “outlook” to present itself as a shaper of the
regional environment. The word should be read as an ASEAN vision of a desirable
regional architecture in this intensifying power contestation.

Essentially, Outlook offers five key points that could be viewed as positive and forward-
looking as regards to the extra-regional application of ASEAN Centrality. These include:
(i) emphasis on the connections between the Asia Pacific and the Indian Ocean; (ii) focus
on cooperation and dialogue rather than rivalry; (iii) advancement of development and
prosperity for all; (iv) recognition of the importance of the maritime domain in the
regional architecture; and (v) aspiration to generate momentum for future initiatives
based on appropriate ASEAN documents that could facilitate Indo-Pacific collaboration.

However, reviewing the Outlook more closely, there remain serious shortfalls which
have to be addressed in concrete terms if ASEAN wants control of the "Geopolitical
Genie" that is now out of the bottle. Addressing these issues is essential if ASEAN is to
avoid falling down a slippery slope that could harm its goal of becoming an "honest
broker in the Indo-Pacific."

For instance, and with regard to the interest of ASEAN to lead the shaping of the
economic and security architecture beyond Southeast Asia, as stipulated in paragraph
two of the Outlook -- this statement appears to be presumptuous and over optimistic
given the structural constraints ASEAN already has to resolve in its own region. Most
notably, the South China Sea crisis has to be dealt with resolutely. At present, ASEAN is
acting in a bolder fashion to address wider and tougher economic and security issues in

1
See the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific. Available at https://ASEAN.org/ASEAN2020/wp-
content/uploads/2021/01/ASEAN-Outlook-on-the-Indo-Pacific_FINAL_22062019.pdf

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new territories that ASEAN may not be familiar with and certainly does not have control
of, such as competition between the US and China. If ASEAN wishes to take the lead
here, the paragraph should be revised to clearly state precisely how it intends to
approach or to resolve the threats and challenges deriving from great power competition
in the Indo-Pacific.

Paragraph six stated "the importance of the maritime domain and perspective in the
evolving regional architecture". Here it appears that ASEAN is trying to get ahead of the
rising Sino-American naval competition in the South China Sea. The big questions here
are: What does this mean in actual practice? What about the shape and content of the
South China Sea Code of Conduct? And the question concerning ASEAN as playing a
central role -- is it as a facilitator of cooperation among the belligerent powers or a
credible manager able to keep the maritime domain safe, sound, and free from escalating
tensions and conflict?

Nonetheless, the Outlook is intended to indicate ASEAN's response to the evolving

regional security architecture. It should be seen as an affirmation and reassurance of
ASEAN’s own commitment to uphold its “centrality” in the Indo-Pacific security
architecture. As Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong posits, “It reaffirms our
commitment to ASEAN centrality and unity. It advances economic development and a
rules-based order anchored on international law” (quoted in Yee 2019). What the
Outlook is seeking to achieve is space for its individual ASEAN states to continue to
freely act in a regional strategic environment that is becoming polarized and in which
the pressures on ASEAN states to choose sides are intense.

For the Outlook to promote cooperation using the ASEAN Centrality with all other
regional and sub-regional mechanisms, as cited in paragraph five which is a good one,
and given the growing pressure deriving from Sino-American rivalry, the ASEAN
Centrality, in the context of the EAS, for instance, must work towards greater acceptance
and command greater respect by all the major powers. Recognizing this reality, Marty
Natalegawa, former Indonesian foreign minister, mentioned recently during the 33rd
Asia Pacific Roundtable in Kuala Lumpur that ASEAN Centrality must be earned. The
Outlook signifies the cohesive spirit that all the ASEAN members hold tight against all
odds. This means that the members agree that the current fast changing security
environment in the region will likely pose risks to peace and development and these risks
need to be managed. This realization by its members indicates the persistence and desire
of ASEAN to remain relevant and be central to the security challenges.

Even with that said, the implementation of the Outlook has faced one big internal
challenge. The challenge derives from the divergence of vision of the Indo-Pacific region
and understanding of the FOIP concept by the member states.

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There are various signs that some ASEAN members strive to reconceptualize ASEAN
centrality that is conducive to the current developments in the region and their own
country (Tan 2020). Indonesia stands out in this case. Perceiving itself to be a middle
power, Indonesia appears to be the most ardent advocate of the concept. As Indonesian
scholar Anwar Dewi contends “Jakarta’s interest in the Indo-Pacific concept is … related
to the policy of President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) of establishing Indonesia, an
archipelagic state, as a global maritime fulcrum (GMF), leveraging its location at the
intersection between the Indian and Pacific oceans into something greater than a mere
physical presence” (Anwar 2020). Even though all members agreed on the release of the
Outlook, it does not mean that all members share the Indonesian vision, which is of long-
standing. Each Southeast Asian country has its own preference and interpretation of the
FOIP. The extent to which each ASEAN member country embraces this concept depends
largely on how it can help that state’s interests and strengthen its development and, more
broadly, help maintain stability in the region.

Even though Vietnam fears US promotion of human rights and democracy in Vietnam
that may undermine its regime, it shares common strategic interests and will continue to
deepen its relationship with the US within the framework of the FOIP. The Vietnamese
commitment to engage the US is evident through various instances such as the hosting
of the Trump-Kim Summit, the Vietnamese Prime Minister’s visit to the White House in
2017 and the many US naval ship visits at the Vietnamese ports. The US also extended
defense assistance to Vietnam. In 2017, the US provided Vietnam with six Metal Shark
patrol boats and a High Endurance Hamilton-class Cutter (Parameswaran, 2017).
Moving forward, Vietnam will leverage its relationship with the US to balance China
(Tran 2019).

Turning to Malaysia, former president Mohamad Mahathir, who resigned from office in
2019, sought to maintain the country’s traditional neutral foreign policy. He canceled
the BRI-related projects worth USD 22 billion as overly expensive, but continued to speak
highly of the BRI concept while being critical of Trump’s approach towards China, saying
that “he does not know much about Asia and therefore [the statements] he makes that
are not based on the realities or the facts on the ground” (Shikun 2018). At the same time,
he sought to continue the improved relationship with the U.S. forged by his predecessor
without embracing the American version of FOIP. His approach was known as
“recalibrated equidistance” that will enhance its engagement with all bigger powers
while strengthening the ASEAN centrality (Kuik & Liew 2018). Other countries such as
Cambodia and the Philippines remained silent, citing the possibility that the discussion
about the FOIP will jeopardize the centrality and neutrality of ASEAN.

As the US and China rivalry is intensifying, the ASEAN centrality and unity will be in
jeopardy. The ability of ASEAN to implement the Outlook will not be strong. Those who
do not support the FOIP led by the US and are pro-China will resist any collective policy
that intends to sabotage China’s image or interest. Those who are less pro-China and tilt

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towards the Western countries will support the FOIP more forcefully. If this divergent
view is not addressed and reconciled internally within the bloc, ASEAN is likely not to
put the Outlook into practice more successfully.

Conclusion

To sum up, the entire Outlook appears to be a smart way to project the ASEAN vision in
the wider context of the Indo-Pacific, capitalizing on the ASEAN Way and allowing the
regional grouping to withstand the pressures created by the geopolitical and geostrategic
shift deriving from the relentless Sino-American completion. However, if ASEAN plans
to gain "buy-in" from their major external partners at the next EAS Summit, fundamental
readjustment of the existing Outlook text must take place to provide clearer, smarter, and
deeper indications as to how ASEAN intends to reform and to strengthen its process of
community building and to give new momentum to existing ASEAN-led mechanisms,
be it the TAC, ASEAN Plus One, EAS or ADMM Plus One. Without such an approach,
ASEAN Centrality could slide down that slippery slope into irrelevance.

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REFERENCES

ASEAN (2019 June 23) ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific. Available at

https://ASEAN.org/ASEAN-outlook-indo-pacific/

Anwar, Dewi Fortuna. "Indonesia and the ASEAN outlook on the Indo-
Pacific." International Affairs 96, no. 1 (2020): 111-129.

Hong, Yu (2017) “Motivation behind China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ Initiatives and
Establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank”, Journal of
Contemporary China, 26:105, 353-368.

Kuik, Cheng-Chwee, and Chin Tong Liew. 2018. "What Malaysia’s ‘Mahathir doctrine’
means for China-US rivalry." South China Morning Post, 20 August. Available at
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2160552/what-
malaysias-mahathir-doctrine-means-china-us-rivalry.

Parameswaran, Prashanth. 30 May 2017. "US Gives Vietnam Coast Guard a Boost
Ahead of Premier’s Visit." The Diplomat. Available at
https://thediplomat.com/2017/05/us-gives-vietnam-coast-guard-a-boost-
ahead-of-premiers-visit/

Shikun, Ma. 2018. "Mahathir Stands up to Both China and the US." China & US Focus, 12
October. Available at https://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-
policy/mahathir-stands-up-to-both-china-and-the-us

Tan, See Seng. "Consigned to hedge: south-east Asia and America's ‘free and open Indo
Pacific’ strategy." International Affairs 96, no. 1 (2020): 131-148.

Tran, Bich T. 2019. "From 'Pivot to Asia' to 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific': The
Development of US-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership." AsiaPacific Issues
141.

Yee, Tan Hui. 2019. "ASEAN agrees on common vision for Indo-Pacific region." The
Straits Times. Available at https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/ASEAN-agrees-
on-common-vision-for-indo-pacific-region

Yong, Wang (2016) “Offensive for defensive: the belt and road initiative and China's
new grand strategy”, The Pacific Review, 29:3, 455-463.

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 THE ASEAN OUTLOOK ON THE INDO-PACIFIC (AOIP):
CAMBODIA’S PERSPECTIVE

Sok Udom DETH

Fifteen years have passed since the concept of the “Indo-Pacific” was first conceptualized
by the late former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. At that time, perhaps not too
many people had predicted that what Abe referred to as the “confluence of the two seas”
would become the increasingly ubiquitous geopolitical nomenclature as it is today. As
Shihoko Goto postulated, few would have expected that Abe’s speech in 2007 “would
become the foundation for multilateral cooperation in Asia” (Shihoko, 2022). With the
revival of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue in 2017 (sometimes dubbed the “Quad
2.0”), various countries and regional blocs from Asia to Europe have repositioned
themselves accordingly in response to this new concept and geopolitical reality in the
making, especially amidst the surging tension between the United States and China.

As a contribution to this edited volume, this chapter provides a brief discussion on what
the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) entails and how the AOIP differs from
the Indo-Pacific strategies of Japan and the United States. More specifically, it proceeds
to discuss the position of Cambodia as the chair of ASEAN in 2022 vis-a-vis the AOIP.
To decipher the official stance of the Cambodian government and gauge the sentiments
in Cambodia about the developments in the Indo-Pacific, the chapter reviews ministerial
press releases, media articles, relevant survey results, as well as written views expressed
by Cambodian academics from leading think tanks in the country.

FOIP and the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP)

Following Japan’s announcement of the Free and Open Indo Pacific (FOIP), the United
States, Australia, India and other European countries such as France and Germany also
released their own versions of the Indo-Pacific Outlook.1 While the (now declassified)
U.S. Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific under former U.S. President Trump committed
to “maintain U.S. strategic primacy in the Indo-Pacific region and promote a liberal
economic order while preventing China from establishing new, illiberal spheres of
influence,”2 the Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States released under President Biden
in February 2022 mentioned the PRC’s “coercion and aggression” and stated that China
undermined “human rights and international law, including freedom of navigation, as
well as other principles that have brought stability and prosperity to the Indo-Pacific”

1
For recent discussions on various countries’ perspectives on the Indo-Pacific, see CSCAP, Regional Security
Outlook 2022. Accessible at https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/14bSO8enlQmQ1tugVExu78nSZC1IBiUre.
2
Now accessible at: https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/IPS-Final-Declass.pdf.

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(The White House, 2022, p. 5). Yet, it also added that the U.S. objective was “not to change
the PRC but shape the strategic environment in which it operates, building a balance of
influence in the world that is maximally favorable to the United States, our allies and
partners, and the interests and values we share” (The White House, 2022, p.5).
Accordingly, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy outlines five major objectives: (i) advance a
free and open Indo-Pacific; (ii) build connections within and beyond the region; (iii) drive
regional prosperity; (iv) bolster Indo-Pacific security; and (v) build regional resilience to
transnational threats.

Similarly, but without specifically mentioning China, Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific
Strategy highlights three major goals: (i) promoting and establishing rule of law, freedom
of navigation, market economy; (ii) improving connectivity (through infrastructure
development and and strengthening economic cooperation); and (iii) securing peace and
stability (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, n. d.). But as Kei Koga observed, while the
newly elected Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida continued to emphasize Japan’s
effort to promote the FOIP through its allies and partners (including ASEAN), “the
difference between [former PM] Suga and Kishida in terms of pursuing the FOIP derive
from Kishida’s emphasis on freedom, democratic values, and human rights . . . Japan’s
value-oriented diplomacy has gradually taken a more significant role in its FOIP vision”
(Kei, 2022).

It was not until June 2019 that ASEAN also adopted its own ASEAN Outlook on the
Indo-Pacific (AOIP) at the 34th ASEAN Summit in Bangkok. As Pich and Paciello argued,
“ASEAN delayed in declaring its position on any of the early four Indo-Pacific concepts,
to avoid risking the perception that it is taking sides” (Pich & Paciello, 2021, p. 7). The
AOIP broadly outlines the region’s vision for improved connectivity, maritime
cooperation, realizing the UN SDGs 2030, deepening economic cooperation, and the
upholding of ASEAN’s principles contained in the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in
Southeast Asia (TAC), which, among others, “encompass peaceful settlement of
disputes, renunciation of the threat or use of force and promotion of rule of law, with a
view to further promoting amity and cooperation among countries in the IndoPacific
region” (ASEAN, 2019, p. 3). Viewing the Indo-Pacific as a “region of dialogue and
cooperation instead of rivalry” and “of development and prosperity for all,” the AOIP
emphasized the centrality of ASEAN and existing mechanisms in tackling regional issues
but also to “give new momentum for existing ASEAN-led mechanisms to better face
challenges and seize opportunities arising from the current and future regional and
global environments” and is meant to be “inclusive in terms of ideas and proposals”
(ASEAN, 2019, p. 1).

Although Kei Koga (2022) considered the principles and functional cooperation
stipulated in the AOIP and Japan’s FOIP to be highly compatible, the AOIP is thought of
as focusing primarily on general goals and norms rather than on “concrete, practice-
oriented proposals for resolving problems” (Heiduk & Wacker, 2020, p. 28). As such, it

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has been deemed by some observers as “far from being a common strategy” and instead
only “acts as a common reference point,” or worse, “irrelevant in many respects” (Castro,
2021, pp. 151-152). As Renato Cruz de Castro put it, “ASEAN’s acceptance of the AOIP
as an outlook rather than a common strategy reflects its cautious – if not weak – approach
to regional security trends and, more significantly, the divergent views of its members
states about the concept” (Castro, 2021, p. 151). Beyond AOIP, even the very concept of
“ASEAN Centrality” has been challenged. As Pou Sothirak, the Executive Director of the
Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace (CICP) argued, “this notion remains
something of a myth and suffers from under-development both in conceptualization and
in practice. The term, which is often used to enforce ASEAN’s position as ‘sitting in the
driver seat’ of all established mechanisms, also needs to be re-clarified and explained
from time to time” (Pou, 2021).

Cambodia’s Stance vis-a-vis FOIP and AOIP

A few Cambodian academics (as well as Japan’s Ambassador to Cambodia) 3 have

repeatedly pointed out that Cambodia was the first country to announce its support for
Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific. Cheunboran Chanborey, Director-General of the
Information, Research and Analysis Group at the Cambodian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
and International Cooperation, for instance, pointed out that “Prime Minister Hun Sen
was the first ASEAN leader to express full support for Japan’s FOIP during his official
visit to Tokyo in 2017” (Cheunboran, 2021, p. 22). Similarly, Cambodian think-tank Asian
Vision Institute (AVI)’s Chairman Vannarith Chheang noted that Cambodia “is the first
country from Southeast Asia that openly registered its support for the Japan-proposed
Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) because it believes that the initiative complements
ASEAN-led regional mechanisms” (Chheang, 2022, p. 2).

Cambodia’s expression of open support for Japan’s FOIP is particularly noteworthy

considering the fact that “China has warned that the vision [i.e., FOIP] is a containment
of Beijing” (Cheunboran & Bong, 2022, p. 21). At the same time, it is not entirely
surprising given Cambodia’s past engagements with Japan – especially after the two
countries upgraded their relationship to becoming “strategic partners” in 2013.4
Cheunboran and Bong contended that the move “shed light on Cambodia’s
diversification strategy to maintain a balance of influence over its foreign and security
policy, and respond to the allegation of being China’s proxy during its 2012 ASEAN
chairmanship” (Cheunboran & Bong, 2022, p. 20). The authors contended that

3
In the HIGHLIGHT section of CICP-KAS’s Diplomatic Briefing Issue 03 on “Japan, Cambodia, and a Free and
Open Indo-Pacific,” Japanese Ambassador to Cambodia Mikami Masahiro remarked that “Cambodia expressed its
support for FOIP ahead of many other countries when Prime Minister Abe proposed this initiative to Prime Minister Hun
Sen in August 2017.”
4
For a comprehensive discussion on Cambodia-Japan relations, see Leang, S. (2017). Cambodia-Japan relations:
the bumpy and winding road to the strategic partnership and beyond. In S. U. Deth, S. Sun, & S. Bulut (Eds.),
Cambodia’s foreign relations in regional and global contexts. KAS Cambodia.

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Cambodia’s hedging strategy with Japan is stemmed mainly from four factors: (i)
Cambodia’s concern that its growing reliance on China may erode its own strategic
autonomy; (ii) relationship with Japan allows Cambodia to prove its “permanent
neutrality” and “non-alignment” as enshrined in the Cambodian constitution; (iii)
Cambodians’ positive perception of Japan in general; and (iv) Japan’s key role in
contributing to Cambodia’s economy (Cheunboran & Bong, 2022).

Against this backdrop of Cambodia’s open support for FOIP, it is reasonable to assume
that Cambodia also by and large embraces the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific
(AOIP). Japanese recent ambassador to Cambodia Mikami Masahiro alluded to this fact
when he wrote: “AOIP and FOIP share relevant and fundamental principles in relation
to the promotion of peace and cooperation” (Mikami, 2021, p. 18). It should be
emphasized that Cambodia endorsed the AOIP especially – or perhaps only because of
– its stated principles of ASEAN centrality, openness, inclusivity, and respect for
sovereignty. On this strategic alignment, it is worth quoting AVI President’s Vannarith
Chheang at length:

“Concerning regional initiatives in the Indo-Pacific, Prime Minister Hun

Sen supported those initiatives that promote peace and prosperity in the
region, complement and support ASEAN Centrality, and do not create
an alliance or coalition against a third country. The leader stressed that
ASEAN Centrality was the cornerstone of peace and stability in the
Indo-Pacific region and that the operationalisation of the ASEAN
Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) with the support of all dialogue
partners was crucial. Therefore, instead of asking ASEAN to support
various Indo-Pacific initiatives, those who initiated the initiatives should
support the AOIP” (Chheang, 2022, p. 1).

Under Cambodia’s ASEAN Chairmanship in 2022, ASEAN is continuing discussions on

the Concept Paper: Mainstreaming Four Priority Areas of the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-
Pacific within ASEAN-led Mechanisms, “including through a stock-taking exercise of
programmes, projects and activities being undertaken within ASEAN and with external
partners relative to the four priority areas of the AOIP” (ASEAN, 2022a, p. 26). The
Chairman’s Statement of the ASEAN Post Ministerial Conference (PMC) 10+1 Sessions
with the Dialogue Partners and Trilateral Meetings also highlighted the expressed
support from various Dialogue Partners for the AOIP (ASEAN, 2022b).

Beyond the usual buzzwords, however, it is possible to discern nuanced divergence

between Japan’s FOIP and Cambodia’s embrace of AOIP from the different emphases by
their respective proponents. In reiterating the essence of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific,
for instance, Japanese Ambassador to Cambodia Mikami Masahiro stressed the fact that
“FOIP is an inclusive and transparent concept and not a containment directed at any
particular country, including China” (Mikami, 2021, p. 17). However, he also cautioned

-24-
that while states may from time to time have disputes about international laws, they are
not “free to interpret the rules as they like as they always have to explain their
interpretations rationally and respect legal and diplomatic processes. Trying to change
the status quo unilaterally by the use of force, disregarding others’ opinions, should be
firmly rejected” (Mikami, 2021, p. 18). Cheunboran Chanborey, on the other hand,
argued that “any regional initiative should not aim to fuel rivalry but instead
complement the existing mechanisms to bring about stability, security, peace and
prosperity. In contrast, any attempt to maintain a unilateral approach to regional security
will be destabilizing; and so too will attempts to contain others in the region”
(Cheunboran, 2021, p. 23). Speaking at the Ministerial Forum for Cooperation in the Indo-
Pacific in Paris in February 2022, for instance, Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister and
Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Prak Sokhonn also remarked
that:

“As the rotating chair of ASEAN this year, Cambodia underlines the
spirit of “Togetherness” in which we emphasize ASEAN centrality,
unity, and solidarity in addressing regional challenges and enhancing
ASEAN’s contribution to regional and global peace, security, and
sustainable development. We stress unity for cooperation for our mutual
interest and we focus on issues that bind us all together rather [sic] those
that divide us” (Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International
Cooperation of Cambodia, 2022, p. 2).

Furthermore, while the Cambodian government supports the Free Open and Indo-
Pacific, it has not embraced the US-led Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD). A survey
conducted by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in 2018 found that while the
majority of respondents in Southeast Asia considered the Quad to be complementing the
existing (ASEAN) regional security frameworks, Indonesians and Cambodians were
most concerned about the Quad challenging ASEAN centrality (Le Thu, 2018). The most
recent State of Southeast Asia 2022 Survey Report by the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof
Ishak Institute found that while 58.5% of Southeast Asians overall welcome the
strengthening of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, only 28.4% of respondents from
Cambodia agreed that the strengthening thereof and the prospects of tangible
cooperation in areas like vaccine security and climate change is positive and reassuring
for Southeast Asia. Similarly, 64.3% of respondents from Cambodia are worried about
the United States’ growing regional political and strategic influence. Conversely, 54.1%
of the respondents welcome China’s growing regional influence and a whopping 81.5%
of Cambodian respondents in 2022 (compared to only 46.2% in 2021) would choose China
when asked which side ASEAN should choose if it was forced to align itself with one of
the two strategic rivals (ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, 2022). Unlike the majority of
respondents from other ASEAN member states, Cambodian respondents (65.4%) have
the strongest confidence in China to provide leadership to maintain the rules-based order
and uphold international law and (71.6%) believe that China can provide leadership in

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championing the global free trade agenda. From the survey results, it was very clear that
the views in Cambodia have increased remarkably in favor of China in 2022, while the
opposite can be observed for respondents in Myanmar (ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute,
2022). Granted, the survey respondents were academics, researchers, representatives of
business and finance sectors, civil society or media representatives, government officials,
and regional or international organization personnel, and their views may not be
necessarily reflective of the general populace. Still, such views are apparently prevailing
among Cambodia's foreign policy movers and shakers nevertheless.

If Southeast Asians overall may be receptive to the Quad, the same cannot be said about
the trilateral security arrangement announced in September 2021 between Australia, the
United Kingdom, and the United States (AUKUS). On average, 18% of ASEAN
respondents think that AUKUS will weaken ASEAN centrality; 12.3% believe it will
undermine the nuclear weapons non-proliferation regime; 22.5% are concerned that it
will escalate the regional arms race, while 36.4% think that AUKUS will help balance
China’s growing military power and only 10.8% believe it will not affect the regional
balance of power. As for Cambodian respondents, 30.2% of them think that it will
escalate the regional arms race (ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, 2022).

Cambodia has repeatedly voiced its concern about AUKUS and the possible nuclear arms
race. Cambodia’s Deputy Prime Minister Prak Sokhonn raised this issue during his
phone conversation with former Australia’s Foreign Minister Marise Payne in October
2021, and speaking at the Ministerial Forum for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific in Paris
in February 2022, he once again noted: “We express our concern that the establishment
of AUKUS could be the starting point that triggers a regional arms race, fuels
confrontation and increases regional tensions” (Ministry of Foreign Affairs and
International Cooperation of Cambodia, 2022b, pp. 1-2). For its part, Australia has
consistently reiterated its intention to only acquire nuclear-powered submarines and
upgrade its naval capacity and not acquire nuclear weapons or establish civil nuclear
capability. Australia also reaffirmed its commitment to ASEAN centrality, regional peace
and security, and firm adherence to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of nuclear
weapons (Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Cambodia, 2021).

Amidst the latest cross-strait flashpoint following the early August visit to Taiwan by the
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, ASEAN Foreign Ministers issued a statement voicing
concerns about “the international and regional volatility . . . which could destabilize the
region and eventually could lead to miscalculation, serious confrontation, open conflicts
and unpredictable consequences among major powers”' and reiterated ASEAN Member
States’ support for their respective One-China Policy (ASEAN, 2022c). In a recent
meeting with China’s State Councilor Wang Yi, Deputy PM Prak Sokhonn expressed his
concerns and underlined Cambodia’s espoused adherence to the “One China Policy” and
considered the issues related to Hong Kong, Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang “the internal

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affairs and under the sovereign rights of the People’s Republic of China” (Ministry of
Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Cambodia, 2022c).

Strengthening Multilateralism and Respect for State Sovereignty

Taking stock of the spiraling tensions and increasing geopolitical uncertainty, Cambodia
continues to emphasize and uphold the principles of multilateralism in dealing with
international issues. To that end, it has frequently and consistently engaged with the
European Union because the latter also upholds multilateralism as an instrument for
peace and development. In his Opening Address at the Ministerial Forum for
Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific in Paris, Deputy Prime Minister Prak Sokhonn stated
that:

“Our desire for peace and prosperity is shared within the framework of
the French Strategy on the Indo-Pacific, the EU Strategy for Cooperation
in the Indo-Pacific and our own ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific
(AOIP). In this framework, ASEAN and EU can find so much [sic]
complementarities and synergies to tackle the commonality of issues
ranging from maritime and cooperation, connectivity, trade, climate
change, and sustainable development, among others” (Ministry of
Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Cambodia, 2022a, p. 3).

He went on to emphasize his belief that greater economic interdependence will reduce
the risks of conflicts, hence the need to further deepen intra- and inter-regional economic
integration (including ASEAN-EU FTA, RCEP, as well as the linkage between the Master
Plan of ASEAN Connectivity 2025 and the Global Gateway of the EU etc.). He concluded
the address by suggesting that ASEAN and the EU are “natural partners to promote an
open, inclusive, rules-based Indo-Pacific. Our partnership will shape the future of this
region in which peace, prosperity and progress can be ensured” (Ministry of Foreign
Affairs and International Cooperation of Cambodia, 2022a, p. 4).

In line with this official stance, Cambodian respondents to the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak
Institute’s 2022 survey, similar to the majority of respondents from the rest of the other
ASEAN member states, consider the European Union to be the most preferred and
trusted strategic partner or “third parties” to hedge against the uncertainties of the US-
China strategic rivalry. Japan tends to be the 2nd most popular choice for many
respondents (ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, 2022).

As the Ukraine-Russia conflict ensued, Cambodia joined other countries in co-

sponsoring a resolution condemning and demanding that Russia withdraw its troops
from Ukraine, thereby receiving praise from Western powers including France and the
United States. This move may be somewhat surprising to some analysts (considering
Cambodia’s historical tie with the Soviet Union), but as Prime Minister Hun Sen

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reasoned: “As the situation in Ukraine worsens . . . we need to take action within the
framework of ASEAN and Cambodia itself,” adding that “our Russian friend is likely to
be angry at us, but as a sovereign state we have the right to act in defense of the truth
and we also have a responsibility as members of the UN” (Sam, 2022). Cambodia’s
position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict reflects its firm position on respect for
sovereignty, territorial integrity, and political indendence of member states and
denouement of aggression by another state. Yet, Cambodia was also among 58 countries
(including 5 ASEAN member states) that abstained from calling for Russia to be
suspended from the Human Rights Council (United Nations, 2022) with Vietnam being
the only ASEAN country voting against the resolution.

Conclusion

In the context of the revival of the Quad, and in spite of its close relationship with China,
Cambodia was the first country in Southeast Asia to express its open support for Japan’s
FOIP and has readily embraced the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific. Cambodia’s
rationale for the support of Japan’s FOIP is its compatibility and complementarity with
the existing regional and structures and mechanisms, i.e. ASEAN centrality. Yet, it can
be argued that while Cambodia’s focus and preference are on the potential
commonalities and inclusiveness that bind the region together (through such aspects as
economic integration and connectivity development), it shies away from activities or
initiatives that are perceived as confrontational, exclusionary, or potentially destabilizing
to the region (e.g. AUKUS and QUAD military drills). As a small nation and a strong
proponent of ASEAN, Cambodia wishes to uphold ASEAN centrality that allows for
strategic maneuverability and is committed to strengthening multilateralism with like-
minded partners such as the European Union.

Insofar as the whole of ASEAN is concerned, the ideal scenario for the Indo-Pacific is one
where the member states are unified in their position and are not forced to choose sides,
and one where the big powers can eventually find a great deal of convergence in their
understanding of and commitment to the “Rules-Based Order” that complement – rather
than compete with – each other in addressing traditional and non-traditional security
threats in the region. The real situation, however, is increasingly more precarious and
volatile. The truth is, as Seah, Li,n and Martinus recently concluded in their article on
Fulcrum, while ASEAN still retains its convening power to bring world powers to the
table, “despite ASEAN’s best efforts (unity, centrality, etc), it remains hostage to great
power politics” (Seah et al., 2022). After all, China will most likely continue to assert its
influence as a rising power, while the United States and its allies will be determined to
retain their dominance and the status quo in the region for the foreseeable future. Unless
they can find ways to accommodate each other’s strategic interests, the region may not
be able to escape from the so-called Thucydides Trap and avert the global crisis of the
21st century.

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strategic partnership and beyond. In S. U. Deth, S. Sun, & S. Bulut (Eds.),
Cambodia’s foreign relations in regional and global contexts. KAS Cambodia.

Mikami, M. (2021, July). Japan, Cambodia, and a free and open Indo-Pacific. Diplomatic
Briefing, (3), 14-18. KAS Cambodia and CICP.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Cambodia. (2021, October 8).
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February 22).
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Cambodia at the Ministerial Forum for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific [Press release].
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February 22).
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Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Cambodia. (2022c, August 4).
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Sam, S. (2022, March 4). France, US thank Cambodia for UN vote on Ukraine.
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Seah, S., Lin, J., & Martinus, M. (2022, August 8). 55th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’
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everything-or-nothing/

Shihoko, G. (2022). The prescience of Abe’s vision for Taiwan.

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for-taiwan

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Human Rights Council. Retrieved from
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-32-
 WHITHER US-CHINA COMPETITION AND
STRENGTHENING ASEAN FOR REGIONAL PEACE,
STABILITY, AND SECURITY

Lawrence Anderson

The regional security outlook in the Indo-Pacific is mixed and fraught with uncertainty.
After three difficult years, COVID-19 appears to be under control prompting even China
to ease up on its stringent zero-COVID policy. Even so, recovery in the regional
countries’ healthcare and economic sectors is fragile with a risk of further pandemics.
Meanwhile, transboundary problems including the climate crisis, food security,
spiralling fuel and other finance related costs will continue to afflict the Indo-Pacific and
beyond for years to come. These non-traditional security challenges are best dealt with
by countries big and small, working closely together, to mitigate their creeping effects.
Above all, it requires the regional superpowers - China and the US - to iron out their
differences peacefully, and work with ASEAN and other like-minded countries to
address these challenges, instead of adding to the region’s worries.

Whither US-China Competition?

The heightened strategic competition between the two superpowers is the most pressing
security concern facing the Indo-Pacific today. Hence, analysts have drawn some comfort
from the first face-to-face meeting between Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping and US
President Joe Biden on 14 November at the side-lines of the G-20 Summit in Bali. Both
men approached their meeting with confidence after their respective elections – Xi in
securing a third five-year term as Party general secretary and Biden, despite losing the
House of Representatives, having halted a widely anticipated Republican landslide.
While reaffirming their respective (and differing) positions on difficult issues such as
Taiwan, North Korea (DPRK), Russia’s war in Ukraine, human rights abuses in Xinjiang,
Tibet and Hong Kong, and damaging trade and economic practices, both leaders also
stressed the desire to manage tensions, avoid conflict and work together to deal with the
global challenges. They agreed to allow their senior officials to renew communication on
climate, debt relief, maintain open lines of communication and other sensitive issues.
Following which, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will visit China for further talks.

The realization by both leaders of the need to damp down tensions has already had a
positive effect on the inflationary pressures in the west and the prospects for regional
peace. If Washington’s elites are serious in accommodating the ‘red lines’ reiterated by
President Xi and likewise if China is prepared to make concessions on what the US
considers priority issues mentioned in the preceding paragraph, then the current rally in

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markets in the US, Europe and China will continue and economic pressures arising from
big power confrontation should ease. But this is, frankly, a big if. While the positive
atmospherics of the Biden-Xi talks and pledges of more frequent contacts have offered
some encouragement, it will take more than just reassuring words to slow the slide
towards heightened US-China tensions. Unless both sides make a serious and prolonged
effort to reach an understanding on critical issues, tensions will remain high. The
question is what compromises will either side make to reduce their widening
differences?

Taiwan: The Most Prominent Flashpoint

Both sides hold to a ‘One China’ policy, but with significant differences in what the term
means. Beijing insists that the US recognize and accept that Taiwan is part of mainland
China, that the US not support Taiwanese independence and not challenge China on
what Xi said was the first ‘red line that must not be crossed.’ The US, however, insists
that there is no change to its approach towards Taiwan, that it continues to reserve the
right to make high profile visits like that of then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in August
that prompted the latest downturn in bilateral relations and to supply arms to Taiwan to
defend itself. Clearly, both sides are far apart in their views of ‘One China’ and need to
reach a new and mutually acceptable Taiwan 2.0 policy on this most prickly of
challenges.

This will be extremely difficult to achieve and is not likely to happen anytime soon. A
positive development is Biden having told reporters after his meeting with Xi, "I do not
think there's any imminent attempt on the part of China to invade Taiwan". This does
not mean that accidents might not happen, but it appears that neither the US nor China
want to go to war over Taiwan. At least, for now. Some analysts believe that the US has
concluded that war with China is inevitable and if so, it would be better to have it sooner
rather than later when China will be in a much stronger position to challenge the US
militarily. This has worried Chinese analysts and policy makers, and contributed to the
hardline uncompromising rhetoric from Beijing, which has made reconciliation on the
issue most unlikely at present.

Decoupling, Signs of a New Cold War?

Significant US legislation, the toughest to date, passed in late 2022 has led some to
conclude that the US has moved from a policy of competition and containment of China
to a concerted effort with its major allies to keep China down by degrading Beijing’s
capabilities to challenge America’s global pre-eminence. The 12 October release of the
Biden Administration’s National Security Strategy, coupled with the earlier passage of
the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors and Science Act of 2022
(CHIPS Act), have imposed and moved towards restricting China’s access to the most
advanced semiconductors, namely, the critical components at the heart of technologies

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from Artificial Intelligence to supercomputing to medical and biological innovations, as
well as highly sophisticated weapons systems, all of which are priority areas in China’s
rise to world superpower status.

A major component of this policy approach is the ‘decoupling’ of their respective

economies. For now, the focus is on national security export controls, to deprive China
of the most advanced semiconductor component parts and the tools to manufacture
those component parts. The most advanced chips and the tools to make them are
produced mostly by companies from South Korea, Taiwan, the US and Europe (mainly
the Netherlands). Coupled with the fact that the new legislation applies not only to
American firms, but to companies worldwide that use US semiconductor technology,
means that the world’s leading chipmakers will be compelled to restrict China’s access
to the requisite technology.

If the US succeeds, it will deal a serious blow to Beijing’s efforts towards building self-
sufficiency in critical sectors of its domestic economy and its growing ability to project
its influence and military forces overseas. But there are doubts whether the US will be
able to persuade its allies or even its own companies to adhere strictly to the tough
sanctions, since they will be hit very hard as well, with China their biggest purchaser of
advanced semiconductors and tools. Already several governments friendly to the US
have protested over what they perceive as unilateral US action to provoke China at their
companies’ expense. This has prompted the US to grant a one-year extension to
companies with production facilities in China like Taiwan’s TSMC and Korea’s Samsung
to continue to use US-made tools. Further extensions and concessions are likely
forthcoming, if there is movement towards an upturn in US-China relations.

China, for its part, has contributed to global concerns over decoupling. At the 20 th Party
Congress, President Xi reiterated the Communist Party’s commitment to self-sufficiency
in high-tech semiconductors and other industries, as well as its pursuit of advanced dual
use technologies. Certainly, sectors dealing with and related to national security will be
affected. However, how many more will be added if tensions between the US and China
and their respective allies continue to worsen? In a speech just prior to the passage of the
new legislation, US National Security advisor Jake Sullivan gave some indication when
he said that other technologies, like biotechnologies and biomanufacturing and clean
technologies would be considered for similar measures.

Decoupling of the two superpowers’ economies is likely to widen, but it will not reach
the levels of separation between rival capitalist and socialist economies in the Cold War
era. Both the US and China are currently anchored to a single globalised economic
system. Despite China’s attempts at self-sufficiency and to diversify its trading partners,
it remains highly dependent on markets in the EU, US, and East Asia for growth and
access to advanced technologies. The same could be said of those Western and East Asian

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countries’ dependent on China’s significant purchases and access to its huge domestic
market.

Allies Have Added to the Tensions

The increasing involvement of regional allies of the two superpowers have contributed
to uncertainties in the Indo-Pacific. While the US and China cannot accept each other as
number one in Asia, neither are major Asian countries like India or Japan prepared to
recognise China as number one either. Most Indo-Pacific countries are wary of Beijing’s
increasing assertiveness, which has led several to participate in US-led alliances aimed
at China like the Quad (Australia, India, Japan and the US) and AUKUS (Australia,
United Kingdom and the US). China, on the other hand, has joined Russia in a
partnership that “has no limits” which is an alliance in all but name, notwithstanding
China’s wariness in supplying Russia with weapons and other assistance in its war in the
Ukraine.

US power might have diminished in relative terms to China’s, but Washington enjoys a
marked advantage over Beijing in being able to call on allies who possess significant
economic weight and materiel resources to supplement US force projection in this region
and beyond. The US has over 60 security partnerships worldwide, while China has a
scattering of security relationships with Djibouti, North Korea, and a few others. China
counts Russia and North Korea as its key allies in Asia, though one must wonder whether
both countries are more of a drag on Beijing’s resources than major assets?

At the back of the minds of Beijing’s strategic planners must be the disconcerting
perception that in the event of any serious future conflict between China and the US,
China will have to contend with an encirclement of US bases and allies. Indeed, China’s
predicament emboldened the DPRK to launch cruise and ballistic missiles in retaliation
to the resumption of US-South Korea naval exercises. Moreover, President Xi’s call at the
20th Party Congress for faster military development and the defence of China’s interests
abroad has done little to allay regional concerns. Coupled with China’s aggressive “wolf-
warrior” diplomacy, actions such as Beijing’s decision to respond to the Pelosi visit to
Taiwan by launching missiles around the seas near Taiwan and Japan last August, has
pushed Japan and South Korea towards better bilateral relations and for both to work
closely with the US to counter China. These decisions taken by the governments of Japan
and South Korea have won increasing support amongst their respective domestic
populace, greatly alarmed at the missile launches and mounting tensions between China
and the US.

It is true that President Xi’s economic, military and foreign policy statements at the Party
Congress did not raise anything startlingly new, but coming at the same time as his being
voted a third five-year term, has lent added significance to what he has said. It confirmed
that Xi aims to remain in power for life. Furthermore, the decision to pack an inner circle

-36-
of seven Standing Committee members with his close allies with the emphasis on loyalty
rather than knowledge, experience and competency in their relevant areas of
responsibility has raised doubts whether Xi will be receptive to views contradictory or
even slightly nuanced from his own. Hence, questions arise whether Xi’s unchallenged
dominance as leader will lead to an even more assertive pursuit of China’s foreign policy
interests? Or will it provide Xi with the assurance and confidence to make the sort of
compromises that signal China’s determination to reach a modus vivendi with the US and
win the support of the regional countries and external powers?

A Lack of Strategic Trust

While most countries in the Indo-Pacific are wary of China and some have even joined
in US-led alliances, none are looking to contain or decouple entirely from the Chinese
economy. Even major US allies like Australia, South Korea and Japan are trying to find
ways to work with Beijing on issues of mutual concern. The underlying impediment is
the lack of strategic trust between China and the US. It could not have come at a worst
time given the pressing need for both superpowers to show leadership, commitment and
a serious desire to work together to manage the non-traditional security challenges that
affect all of us, and are beyond the ability of any one country to counter them
meaningfully.

These issues are familiar to everyone and there is no need to elaborate in detail. Suffice
to note that the transboundary problems will persist for years, adding to the drain on
each country’s financial and other resources in trying to militate their effects. It will
undermine the effort of governments to raise the living standards of their citizens
through the provision of good education and skills training to secure better jobs, to access
reliable supply chains, build stronger resilience in their healthcare services, develop eco-
friendly green and smart cities, judicious use of new technologies such as Artificial
Intelligence, big data and the dangers posed by cyber-attacks. By extension, this will
contribute to regional instability and affect the ability of countries to help each other and
work together for the common good.

Consequently, there are tentative glimmers that neither the US nor China want to go to
war, and that regional leaders should prudently build on this to lessen regional tensions.
This will take time, persistent effort and a serious change in superpower mindsets. For
now, however, given the current suspicions in their bilateral relationship and the
difficulties faced by both to make meaningful concessions on their respective core
differences, the countries of the Indo-Pacific and external powers are likely to see a
worsening of regional tensions with a real possibility of accidents and conflict taking
place over the next several years.

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ASEAN can play a Role

Both outcomes – either a further deterioration of Sino-US relations or a modest upturn -

present ASEAN with opportunities, but also dilemmas. In short, how best to manage
their relations with the two superpowers and to take the tough, but necessary, steps to
regain the trust and confidence of the US and China that ASEAN can play a meaningful
role like before?

In Asia, in the immediate decades following the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, ASEAN
played a significant part in establishing regional security institutions to uphold regional
order. Forums like the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), ASEAN Defense Ministers’
Meeting (ADMM) Plus and the East Asia Summit (EAS) provided useful platforms for
the major powers and regional states to meet at the Foreign Ministers, Defense Ministers
and Leaders levels to exchange views on regional developments and explore areas of
cooperation.

More importantly, they provided the cover for quarreling countries to meet in private
and for the regional states to put forward alternative perspectives to what leaders of the
two superpowers might be receiving from their advisers. With hindsight, President Putin
might have benefitted had he chosen to talk privately to more leaders prior to the
outbreak of the war in the Ukraine. Just as it would be beneficial now for President Xi to
receive candid assessments from a range of Indo-Pacific leaders. To work effectively,
leaders and senior officials must be committed to search for ways to avoid serious conflict
and practice preventive diplomacy, as well as resist the urge to use such platforms to
score public points through the staging of walkouts and disclosing details of sensitive
discussions to the press and on social media.

The multilateral platforms are there. What needs to be thrashed out is the growing
ideological debate over rules and morms. No one questions the need for rules. What
China (and Russia) are demanding is an updated version of those rules to embrace
current practices or norms. Frankly, many Indo-Pacific countries agree. They hold the
view that there is a place for tried and trusts rules and a more flexible interpretation of
norms.

Everyone recognizes and accepts the rules enshrined in the UN Charter, and they are
also embedded in regional documents such as the ASEAN Charter and the Treaty of
Amity and Cooperation. They include respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity and
the rule of law, the non-use of force to settle conflicts, and respect for non-interference in
the internal affairs of all nations.

But norms can be studied and discussed further. Not those that discredit or contradict
the established rules used in international organizations and treaties. There is a need for
flexibility to extract lessons learned and use the experiences in applicability across

-38-
diverse situations, especially for the benefit of the regional commons. To cite an example,
some Asian countries are uncomfortable when the US and its western allies focus solely
on liberal democracy and human rights in the conduct of foreign policy. These are
important principles, but the perception in a number of countries is the overwhelming
reliance of claims on universal application and imposition of values which are not even
fully accepted in western societies and the developed economies of the world.

There is also a need for greater emphasis on economic growth. The US plan to engage
the region through the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) is a start, but it is not a
Free Trade Agreement akin to the broader Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement
for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) or the Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership (RCEP). While IPEF is yet to be fleshed out, the initial indications are not
promising. The regional countries recognize that the Biden Administration will not be
able to persuade Congress to accept a region-wide rules-based FTA. But it will need more
than just clauses that favor the US to persuade countries to sign on. Market access and
access to reliable supply chains would go a long way to bring on board the regional
states.

ASEAN Needs to Get its House in Order

To play a useful role over time towards achieving these outcomes require ASEAN leaders
to take tough decisions. ASEAN’s weakness is that it has forgotten how effective ASEAN,
as a collection of ten member states with a population of 661 million, a combined GDP of
US$ three trillion and a young demographic in which 60% of its people are below the age
of 35, ought to be able to continue exercising some influence over how external powers
should behave in Southeast Asia and the surrounding neighborhood. Instead, ASEAN
is no longer taken seriously as a strong, resilient and united organization today. Its
friends abroad ask, what has ASEAN achieved recently to resolve its internal difficulties
or dealt with regional problems? While the superpowers pay lip-service to ASEAN
Centrality, both have taken the approach of trying to pull individual countries into their
respective spheres, thereby dividing and weakening ASEAN further.

If ASEAN’s leaders are serious about restoring traction to the centrality of ASEAN as a
foundation for the ASEAN Community and its ability to strengthen peace and prosperity
for the people of the region, there needs to be a mindset change and concerted effort to
undertake meaningful reforms. Replicating a successful formula that it adopted in 2005,
ASEAN has got together a group of experienced past and present persons to update the
ASEAN Charter and look at reforms to strengthen ASEAN into a more resilient and
untied organisation for the next decade and beyond. Meanwhile several commentators
including the present contributor have written on the necessity to quickly move beyond
the rhetoric of a strong, united, and successful ASEAN.

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What ASEAN Needs to Do

First, ASEAN countries need to decide what they are prepared to do together, as well as
what they are not prepared to do with the big powers. Then, communicate this clearly to
the 11 Dialogue Partners: Australia, Canada, China, European Union, India, Japan,
Republic of Korea, New Zealand, Russia, United Kingdom, and United States. It need
not entail forging an ASEAN consensus on all issues. But it does mean agreeing on areas
where ASEAN member states must stand firmly together despite intense outside
pressure to do things unilaterally.

In the past, ASEAN was able to achieve significant outcomes by taking positions based
on the collective good of all its members and resisting the urge to resort always to
positions based solely on their respective national interests. To be a credible and
respected organisation, ASEAN must take a strong stand to uphold the principles
enshrined in the UN Charter, ASEAN Charter and the ASEAN Treaty of Amity and
Cooperation, and work closely with its Dialogue Partners to affirm and abide by those
principles.

Second, ASEAN must send the clear message to all big powers that ASEAN member
states want them to stay engaged in the region, but in positive ways that benefit all. This
means having the Dialogue Partners continue bilateral assistance to individual member
states, but also contribute substantially to region-wide initiatives such as completing the
proposed Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, enhanced cooperation to address
problems afflicting the Mekong sub-region, combatting current and future pandemics,
strengthening sustainable development and environmental protection, and increasing
physical and digital connectivity among ASEAN member states and their respective
neighbours.

Third, as stated earlier, ASEAN has the relevant regional security mechanisms and
platforms to enable their leaders and senior officials to meet collectively with their
counterparts from and beyond the region to engage in substantial and robust discussion
rather than reading from scripted speeches per se. More importantly, if they so desire,
leaders can meet bilaterally in private to share candid views on regional developments
and critical challenges.

Finally, ASEAN must show it has the collective will to deal decisively with difficult,
thorny intra-ASEAN issues, chief of which is Myanmar. There needs to be political
reconciliation and negotiations between all parties in good faith. Sadly, that trust – like
the absence of trust between the two superpowers – is lacking in Myanmar. As Singapore
FM Dr. Vivian Balakrishnan has said, “…this is an internal Myanmar matter and ASEAN
was never set out to interfere in internal matters…What we can do is to encourage, to
cajole, to facilitate and our (ASEAN) Special Envoy will do his best to try to bring the
parties to at least talk to each other across the table in good faith”.

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ASEAN member states, as custodians of the regional processes and to lend substance to
ASEAN Centrality, have the collective responsibility to persuade all parties to look
seriously at what continues to be relevant and what needs to change, whether in terms
of structures, practices, or mindsets. This will take time and considerable effort on the
part of all parties concerned. Given the current regional tensions, neither the two
superpowers nor their respective allies are in any mood to make substantive concessions
or compromises. But this does not mean that ASEAN should give up all hope of
persuading China, the US and other big powers to behave sensibly and settle their
differences peacefully.

History has shown that when big powers reach the extent of deterioration shown at
present between China and the US, it is likely to lead to conflict between the protagonists
and/or their allies or proxies. The only question is how bad the clash(es) will be before
both sides arrive at the same conclusion that with the high-tech weapons systems at their
disposal and the way the global economy works, there will be no winners only pyrrhic
victories with almost everyone a casualty in some form or another. When this stark
realisation sets in eventually, both sides will recognise that it is better to reach a mutual
understanding to manage their core differences rather than inflict crippling damage on
each other. When that day arrives, will ASEAN be ready to step up and be in a good
position to credibly offer its services and institutional platforms to rebuild trust between
the superpowers to co-exist and work together to address the challenges and threats that
affect us all?

Therefore, even though the time at present might not be ripe, ASEAN must make use of
this interim period to strengthen its resilience, work out what it needs to do within the
organisation and with like-minded countries and the big powers to embrace the ASEAN
way of resolving differences through active support of the inclusive, rule-based
multilateral system and proper use of ASEAN’s institutional platforms. A strong, united
and resilient ASEAN will be in the best position to minimise the fallout of superpower
quarrels and, at the appropriate time, to play a substantive role in bringing peace and
stability back to the region.

Relevant Practices, New Ideas

For all the goodwill and effort on ASEAN’s part, will it be sufficient to deter countries
from forging alliances? Probably not, but ASEAN’s regional security platforms could
serve as part of an overlapping network of security mechanisms between diplomacy and
war. The challenge is to make sure they are effective and not serve as mere talk-shops or
unhelpful occasions for each side to hurl accusations and insults at one another. What is
needed is a sort of ‘bridge’ over the region’s troubled waters to span the widening chasm
between the warring parties.

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From the perspective of Cold War realists, Asia today is divided into two rival spheres
of influence under two dominant hegemons, namely China/Russia and the US, each
with their friends and allies. Unlike the Cold War era, however, the countries in both
camps strive to maintain a semblance of good relations with the hegemons. As both sides
jockey to win more friends and allies, it increases the risk of clashes taking place, whether
by accident or design. What is sorely needed is recognition by both hegemons that
conflict between them is costly, self-defeating, and that it would be sensible to have some
distance between their respective spheres. As we live in an inter-dependent, connected
world, it is evident that peaceful relations and competition between them will be of
paramount importance. This could be facilitated by ASEAN and its related fora in the
form of a ‘bridge.’

ASEAN leaders and senior officials have the challenging task to persuade the major
powers to accept ASEAN’s regional security platforms as a neutral, safe and relevant
‘political and security’ space to seriously engage one another. ASEAN also offers
‘economic space’ as a testbed for the major powers to build stronger economic linkages
with individual ASEAN countries, short of being forced to choose between the two
spheres.

ASEAN’s value then is to be a neutral, reliable ‘bridge’ for the hegemons to co-exist at
the very least, and to build towards cooperation, instead of focusing on strategic
competition. We want all major powers to work towards strengthening the bridge rather
than competing to pull the bridge into their respective orbits, thereby threatening the
collapse of the structure itself.

The ASEAN Chair will have a key role to play in not only marshalling member states to
stay focused on the collective interests of ASEAN, and to present a strong, united and
neutral grouping in persuading the major powers to abide by ASEAN’s rules that will
benefit all parties. This will take time, beyond the scope of a single Chairmanship.
Cambodia can make a decisive start to lay the foundation for having the major powers
recognise and accept ASEAN as a trusted neutral bridge to re-connect the two hegemons,
and to offer the relevant platforms for all parties to work together to address regional
security and transboundary challenges. If first Cambodia, Indonesia as the next
Chairman and subsequent ASEAN Chairs and member states succeed in doing this
purposefully, it will reinvigorate the ARF, ADMM-Plus and EAS significantly, and
thereby inject a meaningful relevance to the concept of ASEAN centrality.

Conclusion

The countries of the Indo-Pacific stand at a crossroads. It will take a concerted and
sustained effort by all parties if the region is to stay on a trajectory to peace, progress,
and prosperity. ASEAN and its like-minded partners should work closely to persuade

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all parties to focus on strengthening and using ASEAN for an enduring peace and
security for all.

The US and China will not quickly or easily reach a new understanding to manage their
core differences; neither are they likely to get everything they want by competing more
aggressively against each other. The result is that ASEAN will have to steer through a
prolonged period of more tensions and uncertainties. Still, the prospect of war between
the US and China or between their respective allies and proxies is for the moment remote.
China must fight only if the US supports Taiwan independence. This is unlikely. If an
accident should occur in the South China Sea, the Korean Peninsula or elsewhere, both
superpowers will probably try to contain it. Hence, short of a major US-China war,
ASEAN ought to be able to cope with most situations. It will be in a stronger position to
deal with such eventualities if member states use the time wisely to build resilience and
unity, agree to work together for the greater good of ASEAN and not have each country
push only for its national interests. ASEAN has dealt with more dangerous
circumstances in the past. But managing current regional problems will require greater
agility, unity and resolve than ASEAN has demonstrated in recent years.

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-44-
 REGIONAL ECONOMIC RULEMAKING IN A
DISORDERED WORLD

Simon Tay, Jessica Wau, and Janessa Kong

Navigating a Divided World

Even as Sino-American competition and contention has grown, most Asians have hewn
to a policy not to choose between one or the other major power, but to engage both. This
policy, in place for more than a decade since the global financial crisis, is not merely
pragmatic. It has reinforced the role of ASEAN as being “central” in providing an open
and inclusive multilateral platform for dialogue and cooperation. It has also minimized
the danger of cleavage within ASEAN given that member states have differing interests
and relationships with the great powers. The two great powers in response have
acknowledged ASEAN centrality (as have other partner countries). Each also says that it
does not press ASEAN to make an “either/or” choice. Nevertheless, the present “no
choice” stance faces increasing pressures.

The main pressure arises from the amplification of Sino-American differences across
many areas of international policy such as trade, technology, and the digital economy, as
well as infrastructure, security and questions of governance. Many of these differences
play out not only bilaterally between the two great powers but also as they make
initiatives geared toward ASEAN and other Asians. Secondary pressure arises from the
ambition of ASEAN centrality – to be relevant and engaged on key questions. In
comparison, a growing number of initiatives by the USA like the Quadrilateral Security
Dialogue (Quad) excludes ASEAN and instead turns to other friends and allies. A third
pressure stems from the need for an international rules-based order (IRBO). There is a
crucial need for rules to shape international cooperation in new areas such as the digital
economy and in response to the climate crisis. Yet, with the Sino-American contention,
rulemaking is part of the contestation and is often stymied or at cross-purposes.
Moreover, while both great powers say they uphold the IRBO, there are instances where
they may bend and even break the rules in their favor and in relation to ASEAN. Against
this background, this chapter will consider rulemaking in the region and more
particularly, economic rule making by ASEAN. We begin with a consideration of China’s
actions and policy preferences and suggest what other Asians would like to see China
do differently. Next, we survey Asian reactions to the USA and the Biden
administration’s initiative for the Indo Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF). In the third
part of this chapter, ASEAN itself is our focus as we consider the on-going and potential
strategies by which ASEAN as a group and ASEAN member states independently might
respond to the needs and opportunities in rule making.

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China’s Growing Influence

China’s increased and sustained commitment to the Asia Pacific has been growing over
the years and is evident in its extensive involvement in the region. The Lowly Institute’s
Asia Power Index, which tracks economic data to assess regional power dynamics, has
found that U.S. leverage has declined from 2018-2020, while China has propelled
forward, particularly in economic influence (Lemahieu and Leng 2021). This is no
surprise, given that in 2019 China overtook the EU to become ASEAN’s largest trading
partner, and the degree of trade linkage has only been growing since 2010 (Fung 2022).
It has also surpassed the U.S. in what it once dominated in terms of investment flows to
countries in the region (Patton 2022). Investments from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
alone have grown from US$16.8 billion in 2014 to US$29.3 billion in 2019, accounting for
27.6 per cent of all BRI investments worldwide (Yu 2021). Economic involvement is
further complemented with persistent diplomacy efforts as well. Foreign Minister Wang
Yi’s trips across Southeast Asia (SEA) and the Pacific this year alone have outpaced the
U.S. and these trips feature sustained engagement with countries on areas of mutual
interest (Peng 2021).

While it seems that ties between China and ASEAN are solidified, ASEAN countries are
by no means “China-naïve”. There still remains challenges that need to be addressed,
one of which pertains to China’s “coercive and aggressive” behavior as U.S. Secretary of
Defense Lloyd Austin mentioned during the Shangri-La Dialogue (CAN 2022). China’s
strategy of resorting to economic coercion to penalize a country’s foreign policy decisions
is not unfamiliar to many ASEAN countries. Australia’s ongoing trade war with China
is evidence of this. After Prime Minister Scott Morrison publicly called for an
investigation into the origins of COVID-19 in 2020, China responded by imposing trade
restrictions across multiple industries like barley, beef, and ore (Hurst 2020). While
Australia managed to mitigate most of the impact through diversification and finding
new markets, the total cost of exports impacted is estimated to be approximately A$20
billion, a bill which many ASEAN countries would not be able to foot (Wilson and King
2022). Moreover, given that trade and manufacturing lines run thick and deep in Asia,
such wolfish behavior will disrupt trade in many ASEAN economies and is a source of
concern.

Ongoing territorial disputes involving multiple ASEAN countries have also continued
to be a barrier in trying to facilitate better relations, the most prevalent one being the
South China Sea dispute. The most recent Hague Tribunal’s ruling in favor of the
Philippines in 2016 found that China’s claims of historic rights within the nine-dash line
were without legal foundation and that Beijing’s activities infringed on Manila’s
sovereign rights (Hunt 2016). Since then, however, there has been little impact on China’s
behavior, as it has continued land reclamation and militarization of the surrounding
islands, with its vessels regularly intruding into Filipino waters (CNBC 2021). With the
newly elected Marcos government’s declaration to be stricter in upholding this ruling

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(Flores 2022), China’s response will have implications as to how this relationship will
proceed moving forward.

However, this also does not mean that ASEAN countries lack agency altogether. While
member nations understand that they are economically reliant on China, they have also
been successful in engaging strategically and exerting agency to set the terms of
engagement. The BRI, for example, has long been accused of being a form of ‘debt trap
diplomacy’ which takes advantage of less developed nations in need of infrastructure
funding. However, there have been more than one instance of ASEAN countries
negotiating with China to skew the contract in their favor. For example, Jokowi has
successfully leveraged the BRI as a tool for productive investment and politically
strategic projects. The Jakarta-Bandung High Speed Rail link was negotiated not to
include government guarantees, and has been designed in a manner to make Indonesian
and Chinese State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) work together through joint venture,
enabling technology, skills, and know-how to be transferred Tritto and Camba 2019).
Other examples in the Philippines (Camba 2021), Malaysia (Lim and Ng 2022), and
Myanmar (Gong 2022) have shown that local politics and community advocacy efforts
are more influential factors in determining the terms of engagement with China along
with the success of the project. However, that does not mean that the BRI does not need
to be refreshed. A relook is timely, especially considering the failure of Rajapaksa
government in Sri Lanka to repay its debts from the Hambantota port since it decided to
lease out the port. Loans often come at a hefty price should governments be unable to
fulfil the terms of the contract, and weak governance along with minimal consideration
for the resultant environmental impact often disproportionately affects vulnerable
communities in the country.

Cooperation with Limits

Subsequent engagement with China then necessitates caution but it is not without hope.
In spite President Xi reiterating that “time and momentum is on China’s side”
(Lo and Huang 2021), China still needs support. Domestic challenges exacerbated by the
pandemic and climate change, its reliance on Western economies for essential goods and
services, and its ongoing rivalry with the U.S. has undoubtedly derailed its growth
trajectory. Beijing’s Dual Circulation Strategy (DCS) for example, seeks to pivot the
Chinese economy towards greater self-reliance through increasing domestic demand
while engaging strategically with foreign partners (The Economist 2020). However, due
to the pandemic and its zero-COVID policy, exports have continued to surge to other
countries as economies are starting to recover, while domestic consumption has
stagnated as households cut back on spending. In 2020, net exports accounted for 25.3
percent of the growth in Chinese GDP - the highest level since 1997. This trend continued
into 2021, with net exports driving 20.9 percent of China's GDP growth that year -the
second highest level since 1997. During the same period however, household
consumption fell from 39.1 per cent of GDP in 2019, the highest level since 2005, to 37.7

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per cent of GDP in 2020 (The Economist 2022). In the short-term, China still remains
reliant on Western economics for high-tech goods, particularly for semiconductor
manufacturing, as well as food security and foreign expertise.

Moreover, its intensifying rivalry with the U.S. will continue to impact trade and
economic growth. The Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs on US$350 billion
worth of Chinese goods remain in effect even today (Lobosco 2022), and current U.S.-led
initiatives are exclusive and strategically founded to curb its growth. Consider the Quad
with Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S., or AUKUS, the trilateral security pact between
Australia, the United Kingdom, and the U.S. These groupings are not only exclusionary,
but focused on containing China’s increased maritime dominance in the Indo-Pacific
(Merlow 2021). The Quad grouping has further reasserted its commitment to the region
through pivoting to softer security issues as well, such as health security and climate
change during the pandemic (Australia DFAT 2022). The financing of agreements to
support the ramping up of COVID-19 vaccine production in India to be distributed to
SEA countries was well-received and offered an alternative to China’s vaccine diplomacy
efforts (Ganapathy 2021). During the SLD, Prime Minister Kishida announced that the
Quad will be more active in helping the region, and will extend more than US$50 billion
of further infrastructure assistance and investment in the Indo-Pacific over the next five
years, with specific commitments to maritime security (Nikkei Asia 2022). The recent
launch of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) by the U.S. is the latest in a slew
of multilateral partnerships which serve to limit China’s growing influence, now focused
in the growing digital economy. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo has
explicitly stated that the IPEF seeks to restore U.S. economic leadership in the region and
to “present Indo-Pacific countries an alternative to China’s approach” (Tan 2022).

In light of these recent events, ASEAN emerges as prospective partner for China. It
presents a viable alternative to the exclusionary practices of the U.S. and its like-minded
partners as it continues to operate along the lines of a rational, rules-based sensibility
when engaging with its partners. As both General Prabowo and Dato Tun Hussein
summarized during the SLD, ASEAN respects the great powers, but upholding a rules-
based order remains most important in order to maintain its centrality in the region. The
ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) envisions APAC not as contiguous territorial
spaces but rather as a closely integrated and inter-connected region with ASEAN
centrality as the underlying principle. It has since served as a guide for subsequent
regional economic rulemaking, and ASEAN’s approach to other multilateral
partnerships in the region. Consider initiatives that can influence China’s engagement
such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). China is the largest
economy in RCEP and reaps the greatest benefits. Started as an agreement that sought to
harmonize various ASEAN +1 agreements, the emphasis on inclusion entails that the
depth and quality of the precepts will be modest. Realistic common targets have been set
considering the diversity of economies present and similarly frames the largest and most
dynamic market in the world. The risk of China’s dominance in RCEP have also been

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managed and balanced by two factors: the participation of India and ASEAN’s
chairmanship. This is in the hope that ASEAN centrality can continue to underpin these
regional economic agreements, and that the AOIP can influence economic rulemaking in
the region. Moving forward, member countries in RCEP should continue the ratification
process, as Indonesia has most recently done in Q1 of 2022 (CNA 2021), especially for
ASEAN countries which need sufficient influence to balance against China.

It is important to note that public perceptions will influence subsequent engagement

with China. If history is any indication, deteriorating perceptions of China will impact
trade decisions and close partnerships. China was once South Korea’s top trade partner,
but following economic restrictions, the elite and public opinion have become negative,
and attempts are being made to shift South Korean manufacturing and supply chains
towards the U.S., especially for high-tech chips (Chan and Choi 2021). China’s behavior
has led to deteriorating public perceptions in many ASEAN countries according to an
annual survey conducted by the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (Seah 2021).
According to the 2022 survey, while China is perceived as the most influential economic
power in SEA at 76.7 per cent, it is also the least trusted – 58.1 per cent of respondents
have either little or no confidence that China will ‘do the right thing’ to contribute to
global peace, security, prosperity, or governance. This figure contrasts with that of the
other major powers – U.S., EU, and Japan, where 52.8 per cent, 48.5 per cent and 54.2 per
cent of respondents respectively have confidence that these countries “would do the
right thing”.

U.S. Renewed Commitment to the Indo-Pacific

The Biden administration is showing greater commitment the region and stepping up its
engagement on multiple fronts. The resumption of the U.S.-ASEAN summit after a hiatus
during the Trump presidency, Biden’s visit to Asia and the launch of the IPEF holds
promise that the U.S. is finally starting to reassert its commitment to the region.
However, it remains to be seen just how reliable these new initiatives might prove. There
are concerns surrounding the lack of details which need to be negotiated, and more
fundamentally, how the U.S. views its partners, and domestic challenges. ASEAN
countries will need to make their own calculations and consider how best to take their
relationship moving forward.

The launch of the IPEF by the Biden administration sets out to write “new rules for the
21st century economy” (White House 2022), particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.
Indeed, at first glance, the framework holds a lot of promise: it is a sign that the
administration understands that a long-term economic strategy is needed in the Indo-
Pacific, and is simultaneously a timely response to signals from the region for greater
U.S. economic engagement. Areas of mutual interest are right at the heart of the IPEF
agenda as well – the four pillars of IPEF focus on a connected, resilient, clean, and fair
economy (Tan 2021), and are in alignment with ASEAN’s growth areas in the next

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decade. The IPEF is also consistent in its approach of rulemaking and norm setting that
considers the diverse economics in the region and models other forms of partnership that
have been more successful. Like ASEAN itself, a broad group of stakeholders are
engaged to discuss shared objectives, soft rulemaking in hopes of influencing common
standards and norms in the long term. As compared to other larger security-centric
initiatives in the region, like the QUAD and AUKUS, this will be a fresh and more
inviting change for many ASEAN countries.

However, questions remain as to whether this initiative will be successful. For one,
specific terms and details surrounding IPEF, along with its main offering are still unclear.
The main gripe for many countries is that the IPEF is more symbolic than useful. Unlike
Free Trade Agreements (FTA), the IPEF will not discuss tariff reductions or offer
increased U.S. market access (Arasasingham and Benson 2022), concerns which are more
relevant and tangible to ASEAN countries. The next question lies as to whether the U.S
can incentivize its partners to uphold its high standards on climate and labor, especially
without conceding on market access. This may also prove to be a stumbling block for
other countries interested in the proposition, but unable to commit substantively to the
framework. These concerns are neither new nor revolutionary – they have previously
been raised when China first announced the launch of its BRI, and more recently in its
Global Development Initiative (GDI). China’s established presence in the region and its
willingness to concede to local requirements is a big draw for many ASEAN countries.

The Chinese won the contract for the Kaliwa Dam project and the Chico River pump in
the Philippines because they were willing to expedite the process despite the social cost
incurred (Camba 2021). It was also distinctive from the Japanese offer because it upheld
the principle of non-interference, which the Americans and Japanese were unlikely to
abide by, and were more flexible in implementing the project quickly – which was
important due to local politics between the Duterte government and key local players
like the military and exporters at the time. China’s launch of its Global Development
Initiative (GDI) late last year has also arguably made greater strides in progress in
comparison to IPEF, both in terms of support as well as tangible commitments. Seen as a
complement to the BRI’s focus on infrastructure development, the GDI hopes to help
countries work towards inclusive growth aligned with the United Nation’s (UN)
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). A group of “Friends of the GDI” was launched
by the UN in January 2022, and more than fifty-five countries have joined it to date
(Commissioner’s Office of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the Hong Kong SAR
2022). China has since made further commitments to the initiative, first at the BRICS
summit with the release of a Global Development Report that contributed a Chinese
perspective on the SDGs and trends in global development, and more recently at the
High-Level Dialogue amongst the “Friends of the GDI” initiated by the UN, where new
financial commitments were made; President Xi pledged an additional $42 billion to the
South-South Cooperation Assistance Fund, and increasing its contributions to the United
National Peace and Development Trust Fund as part of the GDI (Akeredolu 2022). Thus,

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in order for IPEF reach its full potential, the Biden administration will need to determine
how to convince countries to harmonize standards and encourage interoperability while
offering participating countries concrete benefits.

Is the U.S. Dependable?

It is a given that ASEAN countries will show up when the U.S. calls and hear them out,
but whether they decide to participate will ultimately depend on their individual
interests. Given its dwindling presence after the Trump administration pulled out of the
TPP, ASEAN countries need to ask the question of whether the U.S. is dependable and if
its engagement in the IPAC will be sustained. On that note, the following section
elaborates on three main challenges that ASEAN nations should bear in mind.

First, other U.S. development initiatives that previously held great promise have since
stalled – consider the Build Back Better World (B3W) and Global Gateway, two G7
initiatives launched in 2020 and 2021. While large sums of money were promised,
recipient countries are still waiting on these initiatives to mobilize financing and deliver
on these commitments. Such concerns also surround the launch of the Partnership of
Global Infrastructure and Investment during the 2022 G7 summit. Seen to largely a
revival of the B3W launched last year, it promises a US$600 billion financial package for
less developed countries (White House 2022). Biden has set an ambitious target of
US$200 billion for U.S. investments, but it remains to be seen if this sum will pass
Congress (Nyabiage 2022). Considering the massive economic impact of the pandemic
and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, strong political resolve will be necessary in order to
priorities and finance such initiatives amid domestic challenges.

Next, the U.S. is culpable of increasingly viewing events through a China prism – and a
function of Sino-American competition for influence. Beijing has openly opposed Biden’s
initiatives, suggesting that their intention is to create a NATO-type alliance to contain
China’s growth in the region (Cheong 2022). This is not entirely without basis – while
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparked international outrage due to a flagrant violation of
the rules-based order, the U.S. interpretation of the conflict places overt emphasis on
China’s response. Beijing’s statement of having a relationship categorized as “friends
without limits” with Russia (Wei 2022) has been used to substantiate its point. Consider
the intervention of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS) in
Broadcom’s attempts to takeover Qualcomm. A presidential order was issued to block
the transaction, even though Broadcom is not a Chinese entity, and its presumed ties to
China are similar to that of Qualcomm and many other non-Chinese global technology
companies (Vieira et al 2021). Thus, CFIUS actions highlight how concerns regarding
China are expanding and how calculations are made based on the potential national
security risks due to exposure to Chinese influence. In this case, national security
concerns are increasingly linked to trade policy, emphasizing how economic security is

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a key component of national security and the regulation of international trade and
foreign investment is a means to secure U.S. interests.

Third, overlaying all of this is Biden’s narrative framing the conflict as a war of values
between democracy and autocracy. This is not surprising, given how strategic
partnerships exclusively involve “like-minded” democracies like Japan, Australia, and
India, as evidenced in the Quad and AUKUS, but this is fundamentally detrimental to its
long-term strategy of engagement in the Indo-Pacific. This argument neither resonates
with ASEAN governments nor is aligned with how ASEAN views economic rulemaking
in the AOIP. This may in fact have a countereffect and deter further participation as
ASEAN countries do not want to get caught in between. Prevailing public opinion
reiterates this stance – when asked what the best strategy for ASEAN amidst U.S.-China
tensions is, 46.1 per cent of respondents stated that ASEAN should enhance its resilience
and unity to fend off pressure from the two major powers, while 40.2 per cent and 29.2
per cent of respondents said that ASEAN should broaden its strategic options to include
the EU and Japan respectively (Seah et al 2022). Moreover, these democratic values are
under stress within the U.S. itself. Mounting domestic political challenges may result in
a lack of continuity of U.S.’ reinvigorated approach to the region. Biden’s approval
ratings are appallingly low, the most recent poll by Gallup revealing that only 44% of
Americans approve of Biden’s presidency in August 2022 (Gallup 2022), a figure
comparable to Trump’s overall approval ratings (41%) during his term (Gallup 2022).
Dissatisfaction with how Biden is managing the economy amid rising costs of living and
spiking inflation, fractures within the Democratic Party, as well as cleavages within
American society itself will determine if the Biden administration wins the upcoming
mid-term elections and the presidential elections cum 2024. It is also important to note
that Americans want Biden to be hard on China (Power 2021), and it is likely that future
trade policy will reflect public sentiment as the administration struggles to shore up
support from its citizenry. While the Quad and AUKUS are likely here to stay, more
recent initiatives like IPEF and PGII may be tabled or overturned altogether.

Finally, recent actions might perhaps be more indicative of how the U.S. views its
partners. The Indo-Pacific region is increasingly becoming a Cold War of sorts, with
countries being pressured to pick a side or be left out of the global order altogether.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s cautioning of smaller nations being mere pawns or
“chess pieces” in a great-power game (CNA 2022) is not completely unfounded. Besides
ASEAN, this competition has permeated the Pacific Islands as well. Both superpowers
have been actively trying to engage the islands through offering incentives such as loans,
security aid and developmental assistance. While the islands have traditionally
maintained closer ties with U.S. allies Australia and New Zealand, the Solomon Islands
signing of a security agreement with China in April 2022 signaled that China’s
engagement in the region was starting to pay off. In response, the U.S. warned the nation
that it will take unspecified action against them should the accord with China pose a
threat to U.S. or allied interests. The U.S. has also tried to increase diplomacy efforts in

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the region to avoid more of such accords being struck, most recently committing an
additional US$60 million worth of funding every year at the annual Pacific Islands Forum
in July 2022 (White House 2022). These actions undermine a country’s sovereignty, and
as the Solomon Island’s Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavore expressed, is likened to
being treated like “children with guns” (CNA 2022). Australia’s repeated reference to the
Pacific as its backyard also shows how smaller countries are increasingly being perceived
as pawns amid Sino-American competition, and the recent contract securing a US$66
million loan from China to fund the building of 161 telecommunications towers by
Huawei in August 2022 (Kakea 2022) show how U.S. attempts to engage in this manner
will ultimately backfire.

ASEAN Centrality

The AOIP was adopted as ASEAN’s central strategy in approaching the Indo-Pacific at
the 2019 ASEAN Summit. Its principles include that of ASEAN centrality, openness,
inclusivity, and abiding by the international rules-based order (Hussain 2019). Great
powers have continued to offer polite recognition to the AOIP, as reaffirmed in the Joint
Statements released during the ASEAN-China Special Summit 2021, the ASEAN-U.S.
Special Summit 2022 and most recently in Prime Minister Kishida’s keynote address
during the SLD. However, there is no impetus to uphold it, and recent events suggest
that great powers will ultimately make decisions in the interest of their national
priorities. The reference to a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) used by the U.S. and
its allies claims to share fundamental values with AOIP (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
Japan 2022). Yet, while inclusivity is claimed to be a hallmark of both visions, recent
multilateral partnerships which seek to contain China beg to differ. The further emphasis
on maritime security and increasing Japan’s defense arrangements with like-minded
countries during PM Kishida’s speech during the SLD 2022 signals a shift in priorities in
deciding on partners. Coupled with the increasingly turbulent environment where
current affairs are viewed from a Sino-American lens and strategic forces threatening to
pull member states in different directions, these principles are in reality difficult to
uphold. The decision to stall China’s application to the Comprehensive and Progressive
Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) since 2021 elucidates some of the considerations
involved. While the main concern surrounds China’s ability to comply to the rules of the
agreement (Shelton 2021), some continue to hold on to the hope that the U.S. might return
following the Trump administration. The calculation for them then is that if China joins,
there is zero prospect that the U.S. would return. This strategic reaction is
understandable but undercuts the CPTPP’s explicit undertaking that accession would be
open to any economy able to meet the terms of engagement, subject to agreement by its
current members. Taiwan’s application to join has also thrown another spanner in the
works, as rising cross-strait tensions and external backing from the U.S. and Japan may
be misconstrued as an attack on Beijing.

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Reimagining / Neo Non-Alignment

For some time, Asians have been counselled not to choose sides. In his book Asia Alone,
Professor Simon Tay warned about a possible divide between the region and the USA
after the global financial crisis. The advice was against the binary choice of either the U.S.
or China but to embrace the idea of “and”. To be relevant to both major powers, and to
other partners was recommended in order to forge a space in-between. However, factors
have since shifted. The U.S. pivot under the Obama administration had elements of both
cooperation and contention with China. But in the last decade, contention became the
trope, whereas cooperative efforts now seem naïve. The China referred to then was still
partly following to Deng’s dictum to “hide their strength and bide their time”
(Heydarian 2014). Xi was only vice-president, whereas now he is on track to clinch an
exceptional third term, with exceptional confidence in the economic system, governance
model and foreign policy strategy that he has created (Haenle and Bresnick 2021). The
question of choosing sides is raised again, and more strongly, and ASEAN’s existing
strategy of “non-choice” may no longer suffice. Yet there are many countries which still
wish to shift in the space in-between, rather than irrevocably joining one side or the other.
While difficult, there are ways that can and should be tried to navigate a divided world,
and examples to be considered.

Tools for Navigation

The general rule of thumb is adhering to an order that is fundamentally rules-based. This
can be done through economic rationality and by partnering either side when it suits the
bloc’s economic interests. U.S. presence in the region is deemed necessary to curb
Chinese dominance, especially its expansionist tendencies, while China’s investment
through the BRI and other vehicles is integral for economic growth for many member
states. Engaging both powers through mutually beneficial partnerships balances their
involvement in the region and provides member states the space to maneuver along
rational, economic rule making lines.

ASEAN also needs to make clear the basis and limits for agreement. For this, adopting a
‘friends with limits’ mentality is wise and can help clearly delineate the terms of
agreement and streamline focus on strategic areas of engagement. Initial negotiations
over the ASEAN-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) fell through over disagreements on
human rights issues and while discussions have since resumed in 2017, full adoption of
this agreement seems unlikely. However, both blocs recognize the strategic importance
and opportunity in establishing a mutually beneficial partnership, and have since
elevated relations to comprise a ‘Strategic Partnership’ in 2020 (EEAS 2020). The EU is
already ASEAN’s third largest trading partner, contributing to 10.6 percent of its overall
trade (European Commission 2022), and deteriorating relations with China over
concerns on human rights, trade sanctions and mostly recently Beijing’s support of
Russia (Wong and Wang 2022) shows the need for other strategic partners. This

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commitment is thus a good first step, but can be extended even further. Alignment in
areas of mutual interest like maritime security, digitalization and sustainability goals
present a renewed opportunity for both blocs to advance broader interests in green
growth. Individual EU member states are already making headway in these areas, like
the Italy-ASEAN partnership for sustainable development (ASEAN 2021) and the
ASEAN-German project Reduce, Reuse, Recycle to Protect the Marine Environment and
Coral Reefs (ASEAN 2022).

Ultimately, ASEAN should cultivate a model of collective leadership where

interdependence is prioritized and where no one country dominates the partnership. The
checks and balances, as previously mentioned in RCEP, serve as a good framework
which can be adopted in other agreements. This can be done by strengthening third-
party multilateral ties with other powers it is already engaged with, like Japan, Australia,
New Zealand, Canada, and India, or via bilateral and minilateral agreements in areas of
emerging mutual interest like the digital economy or sustainable growth. The ASEAN
Digital Masterplan 2025 has charted the roadmap for the digital economy and has set
tangible goals for its members to cooperate on, and individual member countries are
already embarking on Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) as well as forming
Digital Economy Agreements (DEAs), a more comprehensive and enforceable set of rules
governing digital trade. Singapore has established DEAs with Australia (DFAT Australia
2022) and separately with Chile and New Zealand in 2020 (Ministry of Trade and
Industry Singapore 2022), and most recently with the United Kingdom in 2022 (UK
Government 2022), with the intention of shaping rulemaking and norms in this area. On
sustainability, the launch of the State of Climate Change Report in 2021 and the ASEAN
Taxonomy for Sustainable Finance in 2022 represents the commitment of the bloc to work
towards meeting climate ambitions and its focus on sustainable development moving
forward. The 2021 Smart Green ASEAN Cities initiative is an example of initiatives that
can be adopted among partners with shared interests. A collaboration between the EU,
ASEAN and the UN Capital Development Fund (UNCDF), it aims to develop green and
smart solutions to relieve the pressure from high urbanization rates in the near future.

Whose Vision will Prevail?

There is a need for clear rules and standards to govern new aspects of the economy and
serve as a guide to influence and guide global trade norms. The U.S. has traditionally
played that role after World War II and the Cold War and these rules were generally
accepted as it was beneficial to all. However, the anchor of American influence is shifting.
Its commitment to the open and inclusive order it once advocated for seems to be
faltering. Trump’s ‘America First’ policy, its withdrawal from the CPTPP and making
political and security exceptions in the name of national security all point towards a new
form of economic rulemaking, one that prioritizes ‘friend-shoring’ instead of rational,
economic-driven rationality. China admittedly is not the ideal hegemon either –
accusations of rule-breaking abound, and its history of resorting to economic coercion

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and threat of military force make it even more unsuitable to champion an economic order
with Beijing at its center. With the threat of bifurcation and two starkly different visions
of hegemonic control looming in the background, ASEAN is unwillingly caught between
Scylla and Crysadis, a rock and a hard place. It must be prepared for rough seas ahead
and hard knocks that will threaten its centrality and political resolve. While difficult, it
is not impossible and will serve as preparation for what is likely to be an increasingly
demanding and tumultuous decade.

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 BUILDING CROSSING BOUNDARIES AND PEACE IN
ASEAN: A SOCIAL SCIENCE MECHANISM TO GENERATE
SINCERITY AND SHARED EXPERIENCE

Nguyen Ngoc Tho and Huynh Hoang Bo

Introduction

Regional cooperation and international relations are always complex and volatile and
stakeholders are often most concerned with their own interests (the category of purpose).
Meanwhile, the need to expand international contacts and exchanges is less variable
(means). Can the diversity of international cooperation goals and the similarity of means
and methods create and maintain a cultural dialogue mechanism, where all parties can
gain mutual sincerity and move towards understanding and sharing? Handling culture
and propriety in international relations, especially as ASEAN deals with two major
powers, the United States and China, is critical to maintaining and strengthening
ASEAN's position in the region. Confucius once said, “Do not do to the others what you
don’t like [己所不欲勿施於人]” (The Analects); China is the hometown of Confucius. Of
course, Chinese people know better than anyone what they should not do toward
ASEAN. The US claims to be a global power; this does not allow the US to transcend the
boundaries of international relations. These are non-verbal compromises. The ethics of
great powers and the will of small partners will be the decisive factors for the
ritual/propriety model to maintain these compromises.

Research in this area is very active. In multiple books and articles, authors discuss the
role of ASEAN, the rapid-growing presence of the U.S. and China in Southeast Asia -
including many scholars from the institutes for international relations, peace, and
development in the US, Singapore, China, India, etc. However, the vast majority of
research is conducted from the perspectives of political diplomacy, economics, and
military alliances; while cultural, especially moral, perspectives are invisible. Baviera
(2007), Tran Xuan Hiep et al (2014), Chiang, Min-Hua (2019), etc. discussed the potential
prospects of China-ASEAN economic and trade cooperation while Oliver Turner,
Inderjeet Parmar, and et al (2020) analyze the role and influence of the US in the Southeast
Asian region. David Shambaugh (2021) described how and why the US and China, two
great powers, get involved in ASEAN’s regional security and economic strategies in
Where Great Powers Meet: America & China in Southeast Asia (2021). Various authors
discussed the current situation and possible solutions for the South China Sea disputes
in The South China Sea: From a Regional Maritime Dispute to Geo-Strategic Competition
(Leszek Buszynski and Do Thanh Hai, 2020), etc. From the other perspective, Cooper
(2020) studied the case of Singapore to show regional responses to U.S.-China
competition in region (2020). The above studies either discuss the current state of
ASEAN’s political-diplomatic-economic cooperation and its opportunities and threats or

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ASEAN’s current state and future in response to the US and Chinese presence in the
region. In this diverse landscape, it is necessary to examine the prospect of mutual
understanding and the establishment of cooperation (rather than conflict) from the
perspective of cultural and ritual studies.

This research, primarily using a method of synthesizing the written literature, draws on
Seligman and Weller (2012) on the role of ritual (and more broadly, propriety) as a means
of creating shared feelings, empathy, mutual understanding, and crossing boundaries
between ASEAN, the US, and China. This study aims to answer whether, outside of
political, diplomatic, economic, and military relations, culture and ritual can be viewed
as channels for creating and maintaining dialogue, peace, and development under
ASEAN's diplomatic relations with the two great powers. Preliminary research suggests
that there is always an opportunity to create and maintain a ritual/propriety
compromise in which people of different backgrounds, based on the sincerity of their
hearts, are willing to empathize and share with each other through a shared experience
of literary ethics and morality.

The Current Status of ASEAN, U.S. and China Relations: The Role of ASEAN

With a total GDP of US$3.2 trillion in 2019, ASEAN has achieved impressive economic
success over the past five years. ASEAN replaces a war mindset with a development and
economic growth mindset. ASEAN is now the fifth largest economy in the world and is
expected to be the fourth largest by 2030. Over the past 50 years, ASEAN has made
remarkable progress in terms of people and sustainable development, lifting millions out
of poverty and increasing access to education and healthcare. Over the years, ASEAN
has become a space for economic competition between China and the United States, and
China has gradually emerged as the clear winner. So far, the United States has not come
up with a coherent economic vision for the region. In 2020, the trade volume of goods
and services between ASEAN and the United States is about $362 billion $329 billion US
dollars, an increase of 3.2% over 2019. The scale of ASEAN-China trade has grown
unprecedentedly, from $9 billion in 1991 to $685 billion in 2020. Also in 2020, ASEAN
surpassed the EU to become China's largest trading partner. The United States is working
to counter China's economic power in the region by strengthening defense and security
ties with like-minded partners.

With the tension between China and the United States, the world situation has once again
fallen into a state of power confrontation, and many countries have been involved in this
process. How to avoid falling into the "dilemma" of having to choose sides is indeed a
test of the rationality of political leaders of various countries, including ASEAN member
states.

Southeast Asian countries are located in an important geo-strategic position connecting

the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, and are obviously the object of competition and

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manipulation by all parties. Through high-level visits to ASEAN in 2021, the United
States and China have launched a number of important diplomatic initiatives, hoping to
strengthen interaction and firmly grasp the advantages of manipulating or dividing
international politics.

The US Influence in ASEAN

Against the backdrop of China's significant expansion of influence in Southeast Asia, the
United States sought to reaffirm its achievements in the region through the special
ASEAN-US Summit in early May 2022.1 On this occasion of the 45th anniversary of the
establishment of diplomatic relations, US-ASEAN relation was re-energized. Under
former President Donald Trump, the United States had neglected its ties with ASEAN.
While U.S. President Joe Biden's administration remains preoccupied with Russia's
military operations in Ukraine, it does not divert attention from China and the
geopolitical importance of the Indo-Pacific region as the most important determinant of
current global politics and economy.

On May 12-13, 2022, the United States convened the leaders of the ten ASEAN countries
to hold a special US-ASEAN summit in Washington. Before the summit, White House
spokesman Jen Psaki had called it an "historic summit". U.S. President Biden's presence
showed that the U.S. government attached great importance to this summit. In addition
to the president of the Philippines and the leader of Myanmar, eight other ASEAN
leaders were present. At the end of the meeting, the two sides issued a "Common Vision
Statement" for 2022, pledging to elevate the relationship between the two partners to a
comprehensive strategic partnership by November 2022.

China has always had the greatest economic impact on ASEAN, and the United States
has the greatest security impact on this alliance now and in the future. ASEAN's choice
not to participate in the U.S.-China competition means the association is seeking a
balance between economics and security. The Russian-Ukrainian war has made ASEAN
pay more attention to security issues, and the United States is particularly important in
maintaining the balance between economy and security. The negative impact of
economic globalization has plunged many ASEAN countries into economic coercion and
the only way out of the predicament is diversification. This was the backdrop for the May
12-13 U.S.-ASEAN Summit, which would result not in ASEAN choosing between the
U.S. and China, but in allowing the U.S. to develop and play a role in balancing security.

1https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/04/16/statement-by-press-
secretary-jen-psaki-on-u-s-asean-special-summit-2/.

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PRC Influence in ASEAN

The world recognizes that China has the greatest economic impact on ASEAN. Murray
Hieber, a scholar at the Center for Strategic Studies (CSIS), pointed out that Southeast
Asian countries have two attitudes toward China. On the one hand, the economic growth
of these countries is highly dependent on the rise of China; at the same time, they want
to continue to trade with China. On the other hand, these countries are increasingly
concerned about China's growing economic, diplomatic, and military power, and their
foreign policies have become tougher and are ready to show off their power in the South
China Sea.

In addition, China has built several hydropower dams in the upper reaches of the
Mekong river, exposing important water resources in downstream countries to the risk
of drought brought about by climate change. In addition, Chinese companies have also
invested and built a number of large-scale hydropower projects downstream with Laos,
Myanmar, Cambodia and other companies, affecting the ecological environment and
agricultural production. China's move has aroused dissatisfaction among the people of
Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam and other lower Mekong countries. These
countries have different relations with China; therefore, it is impossible to form a
common voice. In 2020, the United States announced the launch of the Mekong-U.S.
Partnership, demonstrating that the United States is playing a balancing role and
increasing its influence in the Mekong Subregion.

Another scholar specializing in Southeast Asia, Sebastian Strangio, believes that

Southeast Asia has become an important economic partner of China, and China's
political influence in Southeast Asia is very important. Because of its proximity, nowhere
in the world has China's rise been seen more clearly than in Southeast Asia. Many
ASEAN countries directly benefit from Chinese economic contracts and direct
investment. However, the common message from China to the region is that countries
within China's orbit will prosper and those outside China's orbit will weaken. In short,
China appears in Southeast Asia as a great power with a carrot and stick.

The Response of ASEAN to the Great Powers

There is a famous saying in Southeast Asia: “one must make friends and bind with
neighbors even when they are not of your interest”. China is always present in the region
as both an economic and political power. A survey report released by the Singapore-
based Southeast Asia Institute in January 2020 shows that many see China as the most
influential economic and strategic political force, but most are concerned about China's
growing influence in ASEAN (see Hiebert 2020). As such, ASEAN is looking for an
acceptable model to balance foreign influence in the region.

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Regarding the United States, the founding father of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, in his
book Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights on China, the United States, and the World
(2013), stressed that the United States has excellent institutions and strong economic
competitiveness. America always has the upper hand because its society is a whole
society. The important reason why the United States has become the only superpower is
because of the continuous advancement of science and technology in the United States,
which has made great contributions to the enhancement of economic and military
strength. He also asserted that among the great powers, the United States is arguably the
friendliest.

Lee Kuan Yew warned that the United States could lose its global leadership if it does
not continue to intervene in Asia to contain China's military and economic power. Of
course, this does not please China, but it shows the common will of ASEAN countries.
The current Prime Minister of Singapore, Lee Hsien Loong, has inherited Lee Kuan Yew's
strategic consciousness. In 2020, Lee Hsien Loong stated in an article published in the
July/August issue of Foreign Affairs that the US presence is very important to Southeast
Asia and China cannot replace this position. In August 2021, at the Aspen Security
Forum, Lee Hsien Loong also warned that the view of "East rises and West weakens" is
wrong. Many other countries in the Asia-Pacific region and around the world are
reassured that the United States has returned to its status as the "stabilizing anchor" of
the international order in the regions.

The Russian-Ukrainian war not only proved the strategic judgment of the two prime
ministers of Singapore concerning the international situation, but also once again warned
small countries not to rely too much on big countries. In contrast, when great powers
compete in Southeast Asia, small countries benefit the most. The Russian-Ukrainian war
brings opportunities to the United States. President Putin's frequent use of nuclear
weapons to threaten the United States and Europe will only lead to many small countries
seeking American protection.

At a special summit with ASEAN leaders on May 12, U.S. President Joe Biden pledged
$150 million to support projects including ASEAN infrastructure. This is far behind the
scale of Chinese investment in ASEAN through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
However, diversifying investment sources is the best option for ASEAN. The United
States has included ASEAN in the framework of the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" and "Indo-
Pacific Economic Framework", which is also another option for the alliance. For ASEAN,
America's long-term security commitments are more important than economic issues,
because a country's economic development requires a secure environment. On May 13,
at the special US-ASEAN summit, Lee Hsien Loong said: "Ensuring that everyone enjoys
absolute freedom of navigation in the South China Sea is the key to protecting global

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international waters."2 Therefore, China must make security commitments to ASEAN,
otherwise it will only make ASEAN more and more dependent on the security of the
United States.

Given that China has become an influential economic partner and the United States has
become ASEAN's security partner, both sides must seek compromises with ASEAN and
each other by finding and matching common interests and values. This is indeed a matter
of articulation (interconnectivity, see Jennifer Daryl Slack) and all parties must be
motivated to develop systematic and coherent mechanisms to facilitate all international
and local communications and linkages of interests. What can social science contribute
to this process?

Propriety, Mutual Understanding, and Boundary-Crossing

Obviously, ASEAN's will and the interests of China and the United States in Southeast
Asia are different, but together they constitute an overlap in the interests of the partners.
Adam Seligman and Robert Weller (2012) called it the ambiguous boundary zone:

Ambiguous boundary zone (Seligman & Weller 2012, p. 15)

In international relations, when the interests of all parties are entangled, ambiguity is
inevitable. Seligman and Weller concluded the same idea when analyzing various social
expectations of various communities. They said: “denying it was impossible” (Seligman
and Weller 2012, p. 19). Ambiguity disappears only if the interests of the relevant
partners are not different.

When ambiguous boundary zone is too large, how can all parties compromise?
According to Seligman and Weller (2012), all partners must join together to create
regularity of communication which is built on “repetition”. They said, “regularity is

2 https://www.pmo.gov.sg/Newsroom/PM-Lee-Hsien-Loong-to-visit-the-United-States-of-America-for-the-

ASEAN-US-Special-Summit-May-2022.

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central to our imposition of order and cohesion on world of human interaction that is, in
principle, open to infinite permutations” (Seligman and Weller 2012, p. 25).

How is regularity created? We must create a common platform or "space" for all parties
to share will and interests. Such a platform and "space" must be formed by indigenous
communities, in this case, ASEAN, not China or the United States. Platforms/"spaces"
cannot be built from scratch, but must be based on a combination of wills, interests, and
international law. Emile Durkheim called this the space to “share the potential space of
culture created through ritual” [propriety 禮] (Durkheim [1912] 1995). It can be dialogue
forums (both official and non-official forums), academic seminar and conferences,
cultural exchange forums, educational exchange camps, regional and cross-regional
sports events, etc. Participants should fully express their willingness to get together, that
is, to express their sincerity (誠心). Only sincerity can build lasting trust (信心). According
to two American anthropologists, when all parties work together to create and worship
the system of shared symbolic rituals/propriety and values (Seligman and Weller (2012)
called this the “notation”), these activities hope to achieve regularity and effectiveness.

Confucius once stated that “he offered sacrifice to his ancestors he felt as if his ancestral
spirits were actually present. When he offered sacrifice to other spiritual beings, he felt
as if they were actually present” (Wing-Tsit Chan 1963, also cited in Seligman and Weller
2012). Once all partners share sincerity, multi-party and bilateral collaborative activities
will achieve the goal of crucial boundary crossing. Shared sincerity brings shared
experience (經歷) even experience still carries with its own ambiguities (Seligman and
Weller 2012, p. 149). Sincerity, notation, and shared experience are key factors that help
people deal with the ambiguities of the modern world. “Notation, in its most abstract
from, attempts to impose a preconceived grid on experience – an interpretive template
drawn from some ideal set of all previously similar experiences that will provide an ideal
context and interpretive vision for it” (Seligman and Weller 2012, p. 150). Creating and
maintaining sincerity, notation, and shared experiences through ritualized processes can
provide tools for human dialogue and empathy, leading to peace and cooperation.
Confucius once said “Human morals would not be well performed if there is no
ritual/propriety (道德仁義, 非禮不成), and now another version can be developed:
“international cooperation and development: no propriety no success”.

China is the birthplace of Confucius, and it is also a leading country for the dissemination
of Confucian values such as propriety and sincerity (see Elman at al. 2002). Historically,
pre-modern China also treated its neighbors with Confucian moral principles (see
Baldanza 2016). China has been building/promoting Confucian studies so far, opening
various dialogic forums based on Confucian values at the international levels, such us
the International Confucian Association (ICA), the foreign-based Confucius Institutes,
the Qufu-based World Conference on Confucianism, etc. This shows that the Chinese
commit to apply Confucian ethics and values in dealing with the world. As a matter of

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fact, China has long been seen by its Southeast Asian neighbors as the creator and
protector of Confucianism. Therefore, in today's world, there is no reason for China to
abandon the values that give it prestige and status. Based on the principle values of
propriety, good symbols can help create shared sincerity and shared experience through
active and positive communication.

The US, the global power, has been building an image of a global leader based on
common principles acceptable to all nations (according to Lee Kuan Yew's statement
quoted above). If the platform/"space" is built on the will of ASEAN countries and
international law, then surely the US and emerging global powers (Japan, India, etc.) will
also share and accept it. On the one hand, there is China and its long-standing propriety
concepts, and on the other hand, there is the United States and international conventions;
ASEAN's active design and operation of a complete system of notation and
rituals/propriety in international exchanges can certainly achieve its common goals.

In summary, the boundary-crossing and peace can be created and/or promoted through
the following mechanism:

ASEAN
Common Shared experience, Boundary-
Partner A
notation and sympathy, and crossing and
Partner B
ritual/propriety; trust peace
Partner C...
common values

Conclusion

The world is an ever-expanding society in which connections involving various interests

and aspects of life have been identified and need to be controlled. The principle of
articulation requires that all stakeholders must demonstrate enthusiasm and willingness
to engage in compromise. While complying with international law, more organic
mechanisms can be used to create shared experience, empathy, and trust, creating an
important platform for dialogue based on ethics and law to ensure that all partners have
matching commitments in various areas of international relations.

In Southeast Asia, China is emerging to be an influential economic partner, while the US

is the security partner; ASEAN members states must build an agenda to create and
nurture a healthy notation that brings all partners together in a shared “space” and use
propriety and other forms of social rituals to create “communitas” (Victor Turner’s
concept) where participants naturally demonstrate their sincerity and share experiences.
Sincerity and sharing of experiences are key factors in promoting empathy, compassion,
and peace in the region.

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REFERENCES

Baldanza, Kathlene (2016), Ming China and Vietnam: Negotiating Borders in Early Modern
Asia, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Baviera, Aileen S. P. (2007), ASEAN-China: how to improve cooperativeness?, Hanoi : Thế

Giới Publishers.

Buszynski, Leszek and Hai, Do Thanh [editors] (2020), The South China Sea: from a
regional maritime dispute to geo-strategic competition, Abingdon, Oxon: Routledge.

Chan, Wing-Tsit (trans. 1963): A source book of Chinese philosophy, Princeton: Princeton
University Press.

Cooper, Cortez A. (2020), Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo-

Pacific: Singapore, Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation 2020.

Denoon, David B.H. [editor] (2017), China, The United States, and the Future of Southeast
Asia : U.S.-China Relations, Volume II, New York, NY : New York University
Press.

Elman, Benjamin A., John B. Duncan, and Herman Ooms (2002), “Introduction”, in
Rethinking Confucianism: Past and Present in China, Japan, Korea, and Vietnam,
edited by Benjamin A. Elman, John B. Duncan, and Herman Ooms, 1–29. Los
Angeles: UCLA Asian Pacific Monograph Series.Chiang, Min-Hua (2019),
“China-ASEAN economic relations after establishment of free trade area”,
Pacific Review 32 (3), p.267-290.

Emile Durkheim [1912]/1995, The Elementary forms of religious life, NY: Free Press.

Hiebert, Murray (2020), Under Beijing’s Shadow Southeast Asia’s China Challenge, Center
for Strategic & International Studies.

Lee Kuan Yew (2013), The Grand Master’s Insights on China, the United States, and the
World, Belfer Center Studies in International Security.

Ping Chew, Shiau et al. (2020), “Global Supply Chains and Technology Upgrading in
the ASEAN-China Relationship: Is China Eating ASEAN’s Lunch?”, Malaysian
journal of Economic Studies 57 (2), p. 201-212.

Seligman, Adam B. & Weller, Robert P. (2012): Rethinking pluralism – ritual,

experience, and ambiguity, Oxford University Press.

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Shambaugh, David L. (2021), Where great powers meet: America & China in Southeast Asia,
New York, NY : Oxford University Press.

Slack, Jennifer Daryl (996), “Chapter 5: The theory and method of articulation in
cultural studies”, in Stuart Hall: Critical Dialogues in Cultural Studies, edited by
David Morley and Kuan-Hsing Chen, pp. 113-130, London and New York:
Routledge.

Strangio, Sebastian (2020), In the Dragon’s Shadow: Southeast Asia in the Chinese century,
New Haven and London: Yale University Press.

Tran, Hiep Xuan et al. (2014), “China-ASEAN Trade Relations: A Study of

Determinants and Potentials”, The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and
Business, 7(9), pp. 209-217.

Turner, Oliver and Inderjeet Parmar (edited, 2020), The United States in the Indo-Pacific:
Obama's legacy and the Trump transition, Manchester: Manchester University
Press.

Turner, Victor (1969), The ritual process: structure and anti-structure, Ithaca, NY.: Cornell
University Press.

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 AOIP AND ASEAN’S FUTURE OUTLOOK ON THE
INDO-PACIFIC: THE THAI PERSPECTIVE

Kasira Cheeppensook

Introduction

The ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific became a cornerstone of ASEAN external

relations when it was adopted during the 34th ASEAN Summit in 2019 after the SOM,
when Thailand assumed the position of ASEAN chair. It reiterated ASEAN’s position of
promoting a balanced, inclusive, and open approach to partners beyond the region under
3Ms principle: Mutual respect, Mutual benefit, and Mutual trust (Department of ASEAN
Affairs, MoFA of Thailand). Although it was achieved during the Thai ASEAN
Chairmanship, the AOIP was in incubation for more than a year, not least due to growing
uneasiness revolving around the US Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy by the
Trump administration. With an ASEANN-centered vision, this regional institution could
be seen as standing on its own feet without siding with the US FOIP or China’s Grand
Strategy in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Indonesia was also a main driver behind
the concept that ASEAN needed its own version of Indo-Pacific vision. Thailand as
ASEAN Chair worked closely with Indonesia “in putting up a first draft of ASEAN’s
position” and “exerted its bridge-building role” to build a consensus among ASEAN
Member States (Phuangketkeow & Ganjanakhundee, 2020).

It seems that a number of corollaries from the ASEAN Way could be gleaned from the
text. The AOIP was quick to remind partners that ASEAN did not intend to create any
new formal mechanism. Rather, it tried to build upon pre-existing forums and tools, a
reassurance to intra-regional relations among members who preferred the status-quo. At
the beginning, it was viewed as a common stance that ASEAN members all agreed upon
that could also serve as a basis for their common vision and strategy regarding
international affairs. This could also contribute to ‘ASEAN centrality’ which ASEAN
deemed at the heart of its external relations. In the light of regional and international
crisis, it proved to be difficult for ASEAN member countries to come up with unified and
united standpoint. This chapter aims to look at the AOIP in relations to the Thai foreign
policy, and the challenges and opportunities in this context.

Various Versions and the Potential of Norm Sharing: The Cases of Japan and the EU

As a matter of fact, countries like Germany, France, India and Japan had also come up
with their own visions and strategies for the Indo-Pacific. It is also quite interesting to
see the dynamic of various versions of Indo-Pacific strategies, how they complemented

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and differed a little in focus from one another. A number of countries have made an effort
to link their foreign policy to the AOIP, such as Japan.

Japan was the main driver of security norms circulating in ASEAN member countries,
namely comprehensive security, (and to a much lesser extent, human security). It has
long promoted adherence to principles of international law and rules-based governance,
which ASEAN readily deemed significant. Moreover, the late Japanese Prime Minister
Abe Shinzo also emphasized a non-confrontational stance, connectivity, and a rules-
based society. Free and Open Indo-Pacific is of common benefit, coupling with the fact
that ASEAN is an effective nuclear weapon free zone due to the Treaty of Southeast Asia
Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ Treaty) as well as the long-standing Zone of
Peace, Freedom, and Neutrality (ZOPFAN). In this light, ASEAN vision worked well
together with the Japanese, and in 2020 ASEAN and Japan issued the “Joint Statement of
the 23rd ASEAN-Japan Summit on Cooperation on ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific”
(Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan). Both countries have planned, collaborative work
on cooperation projects aiming to complement the AOIP.

One of the notable areas is maritime cooperation. In maritime safety, Japan highlighted
technical cooperation on Countermeasures for IUU Fishing to help mitigate the impact
of IUU fishing on the fish ecosystem and reinforce the sustainability of fishery (Ministry
of Foreign Affairs of Japan). This was in line with ASEAN’s Network for Combating IUU
Fishing, the ASEAN Guidelines for Preventing the Entry of Fish and Fishery Products
from IUU Fishing Activities into the Supply Chain which has been around since 2015,
and the 2016 Joint ASEAN-Southeast Asian Fisheries Development Center (SEAFDEC)
Declaration on Regional Cooperation for Combating Illegal, Unreported and
Unregulated (IUU) Fishing and Enhancing the Competitiveness of ASEAN Fish and
Fishery Products.

Thailand as a member state that was given a yellow warning by the EU was active in
adjusting its domestic laws along with promoting IUU Guidelines at the ASEAN level.
During 2019 Thai ASEAN Chairmanship, it worked for an ASEAN IUU taskforce to be
set up as well as hosted The ASEAN Meeting on Combating IUU Fishing in Partnership
with the EU (Royal Thai Embassy in Washington D.C., 2019). Based on the meeting, the
ASEAN IUU Task Force will be “ASEAN’s core cooperative mechanism in combating
IUU.” (Royal Thai Embassy in Washington D.C., 2019). At the same time that ASEAN
adopted the AOIP, Thailand made combating IUU its priority as chair (Wiphatayotin,
2019).

Although ASEAN activities on combating the IUU began before the AOIP adoption, the
AOIP certainly could provide opportunities and ground to build more cooperation in
key areas laid out in the AOIP. Additional examples can be seen from the effort to
respond to the key area of UN Sustainable Development Goals 2030 (SDGs), there was
significant cooperation to mitigate Covid-19 such as “Support for the Establishment of

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the ASEAN Centre for Public Health Emergencies and Emerging Diseases” through the
creation of “the Center to contribute to capacity building on response to public health
emergencies as well as preventing future pandemic of emerging diseases in ASEAN.”
(Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan)

This also applies when we look at the policy guidelines on the Indo-Pacific issued by
Germany, titled “Germany-EU-Asia: Shaping the 21st Century Together”, albeit it can
argue that the German version was also directed towards domestic audience. As with
the Trump initiation of FOIP, we cannot ignore a number of issues that have complicated
China-EU relations at that time; for instance, the South China Sea (SCS) conflict.

In August 2019, Germany, France and the UK issued joint statement on the situation in
the South China Sea: “As state parties of the United Nations Convention on the Law of
the Sea (UNCLOS), France, Germany, and the United Kingdom underline their
interest in the universal application of the Convention which sets out the comprehensive
legal framework within which all activities in the oceans and seas including in the South
China Sea must be carried out and which provides the basis for national, regional and
global co-operation in the maritime domain. They recall in this regard the Arbitration
Award rendered under UNCLOS on 12 July 2016. Furthermore, France, Germany, and
the United Kingdom welcome the on-going negotiations between the ASEAN member
States and China in view of achieving a rules-based, co-operative and effective Code of
Conduct consistent with UNCLOS in the South China Sea and encourage progress
towards its early conclusion (UK Government).”

A month later, Germany together with France and the UK published the joint “Note
Verbale” showing their concerns regarding China’s positions and referred to the 1982
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) in 2020:

“France, Germany and the United Kingdom underline the importance of

unhampered exercise of the freedom of the high seas, in particular the
freedom of navigation and overflight, and of the right of innocent
passage enshrined in UNCLOS, including in the South China Sea.

“France, Germany and the United Kingdom also highlight that claims
with regard to the exercise of “historic rights” over the South China Sea
waters do not comply with international law and UNCLOS provisions
and recall that the arbitral award in the Philippines v. China case dating
to 12 July 2016 clearly confirms this point.

“France, Germany and the United Kingdom hold that all maritime claims
in the South China Sea should be made and peacefully resolved in
accordance with the principles and rules of UNCLOS and the means and

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 procedures for the settlement of disputes provided for in the
Convention” (The United Nations).

The South China Sea continues to be a challenging issue in ASEAN under the framework
of the AOIP; this will be explored in the following section with Thailand’ role. Suffice it
to say that although adhering to the rule of law has been what ASEAN emphasized, the
result was different and far from a united and strong response. The EU in this regard
strived to work with China in environment including maritime conservation based on
their ocean partnership in 2018 (European Commission). This was the strategy also
favored by ASEAN.

To be precise, the German-EU-Asia policy guidelines already identified ASEAN as key

partner. The policy guideline shares common viewpoint with the AOIP in three notable
areas:

First, the emphasis on rules-based order also enshrined in the ASEAN Charter as well as
international cooperation. Both the EU and ASEAN shared common interest in
promoting multilateralism over unilateralism, the rule of the negotiated rather the law
of the strong. The strategy of diversifying partnerships in an open and free environment
is the way to go. The shared vision in Indo-Pacific had potential to tap into the existing
regional architecture and strengthen regional cooperation, complementing the global
regime on specific issues especially on connectivity, sustainability, and environment.

In effect, it could strengthen ASEAN in some of its main multilateral venues such as:

1. ASEAN-centric security architecture, i.e. the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). The
EU already maintained a presence herein since it is ASEAN dialogue partner,
and the Plan of Action to Implement the ASEAN-EU Strategic Partnership (2023-
2027) pledged to “Explore potential collaboration in the four priority areas of the
ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP)” (The Association of Southeast
Asian Nations).

2. Ayeyawady-Chao Phraya-Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy (ACMECS):

The EU as member of Friends of Mekong (FOM) could also build even closer
partnership regarding better donor coordination.
3. A number of EU member countries including Germany signaled more
engagement through observer status seeking at the ASEAN Defense Ministers
Meeting Plus (ADMM+).

The interest and intensified engagement by the EU, particularly the emphasis on the
rules-based order, could have significant implications on peaceful conflict
transformation such as their stance on the SCS conflict. Similar to Japan, Germany and
the EU have stakes in open and free routes. It intended to support a substantive and

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legally binding Code of Conduct (COC) between China and the ASEAN Member States
for the SCS through tangible projects on international maritime law as well as greater
resources for stabilization and mediation in the Indo-Pacific region.

As mentioned above, both the joint statement and the Note Verbale cited the arbitration
award. The Note Verbale was submitted around three weeks after the policy guidelines
were issued. The EU stance echoed these major member countries when its spokesperson
stated that:

“The EU is committed to secure, free and open maritime supply routes in

the Indo-Pacific, in full compliance with international law, in particular
the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), in the
interest of all. The EU reiterates its strong opposition to any unilateral
actions that could undermine regional stability and the international
rules-based order. We urge all parties to resolve disputes through
peaceful means in accordance with international law, in particular
UNCLOS, including its dispute settlement mechanisms. The EU recalls
in this regard the Arbitration Award rendered under UNCLOS on 12 July
2016. The EU supports the ASEAN-led process towards an effective,
substantive and legally binding Code of Conduct, which should not
prejudice the interests of third parties. The EU urges all parties to pursue
sincere efforts towards its finalization” (European Union External Action
Service).

In expressing these concerns, norm-conforming behavior has been consistent and it

might be expected from ASEAN counterparts that the shared vision on the Indo-Pacific
called for reinforced efforts to stabilize the region and maintain regional peace and
security whereby the policy guidelines as well as the AOIP could serve as normative
resource for further peaceful resolution.

Second, there exist common concerns on environmental issues. ASEAN has intensified
its environmental cooperation in recent years as well as embraced green growth,
promoting Climate-Resilient Economies. Renewable technology and the concept of a
circular economy was embraced. The EU was also in the process of transitioning towards
a low carbon economy, and through the shared vision on sustainable prosperity, ASEAN
could benefit from knowledge transfer and people-to-people exchange.

Despite tensions regarding the SCS previously, China was a willing partner in this area
of cooperation, and the EU responded positively. President Xi Jinping pledged that
China would become carbon neutral by 2060 (The New York Times, 2020). Despite
skeptics around the rhetoric, it was undeniable that China seeks to be seen as cooperative
after the backlash stemming from its actions in the SCS. Needless to say, the AOIP was
perceived as better accommodating to China’s plan when compared to the FOIP.

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The European Green Deal in which the EU has strived “to be the first climate-neutral
continent” (European Union, A European Green Deal) has been a central focus of the EU
Commission Mandate, in which the region aimed for climate neutrality in 2050. It
intended to respond to climate change in a multilateral framework, and China stepped
up when the US distanced itself from its prior global commitments in this area.

Third, there is the question of connectivity in general and digital connectivity in

particular. Both regions agreed to accelerate the implementation of the EU-Asia
connectivity strategy presented by the European External Action Service and the
European Commission in 2018 (Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport). The aims of
“is to enhance connectivity in a rules-based and sustainable manner (smart, green and
sustainable)” (Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport). were echoed in the AOIP.
The EU-ASEAN comprehensive air transport agreement (CATA) was the first bloc-to-
bloc air transport agreement, which aimed to boost more connectivity, and
complemented well with the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity 2025 (MPAC-2025).

Apart from the green transformation, digital transformation was also on the agenda. This
requires an appropriate infrastructure in the areas of transport, energy and digital
technology. Certainly, digital sovereignty remained a challenging issue together with
cybersecurity, control over personal data, and effectiveness in law enforcement.

Thai Foreign Policy in the Context of the AOIP

A number of ASEAN member countries were accused of conducting “value-free” foreign

policy, meaning that the policy was not normatively based. Rather, the source of foreign
policy was derived from material, expedient design such as narrowly defined tangible
national interest. For Thailand, it struggled to maintain a “balanced” and inclusive
approach, and tried to avoid being coerced into siding with any of the major powers
overtly. This could be seen as an attempt to prevent selective multilateralism by the great
powers and promote generalized reciprocity.

Since the AOIP was adopted during Thailand’s ASEAN Chairmanship, Thailand has
often referred to the document in the conduct of its foreign affairs, especially within the
context of ASEAN. A notable example being the Thai Prime Minister and Defense
Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha encouraged ASEAN-Russia cooperation based on
the four areas identified in the AOIP (Royal Thai Government). This happened shortly
before Russia’s military operation in Ukraine in early 2022. Thailand “welcomes Russia’s
proposal to designate the year 2022 as the ASEAN-Russia Year of Science and
Technology Cooperation to build upon cooperation in the field of science, technology
and innovation, in which Russia has expertise…” (Royal Thai Government).
Connectivity was another potential area for ASEAN-Russia cooperation.

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Another area often emphasized in Thai foreign policy is sustainability. Thailand
highlighted Sustainable Economy Philosophy (SEP) for SDGs as an important element in
its foreign policy. In September 2022, Don Pramudwinai, Deputy Prime Minister and
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Thailand hosted “Regional Pathways to the Global Goals:
ASEAN’s Approach towards SDGs Implementation and Sustainable Post-COVID-19
Recovery” event in the margins of the 77th Session of the UNGA High-level Week
(Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kingdom of Thailand). Thailand as ASEAN Coordinator on
Sustainable Development Cooperation, and the ASEAN Centre for Sustainable
Development Studies and Dialogue (one of the deliverables of the Thai 2019 ASEAN
Chair) co-hosted the event.

Don referred to the AOIP among other frameworks and initiatives as vehicles to promote
“peace and partnerships for sustainable development” (Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
Kingdom of Thailand). According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Don “suggested two
key elements that are preconditions for taking forward SDGs implementation: (i)
ensuring a peaceful environment conducive to sustainable development and reinforcing
constructive cooperation to build strategic trust and create mutual benefits; and (ii)
enhancing partnerships through synergies, the whole of society approach, and multi-
stakeholder engagement for the UN 2030 Agenda” (Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
Kingdom of Thailand).

From the cases illustrated above, the AOIP complemented Thai foreign policy well in the
“lower level politics” aspect. The AOIP also complemented the global regime along the
same lines. The area that proved to be difficult was complementarity in the peaceful
settlement of disputes and the maintenance of peace and security. The AOIP for all its
reiterated principles of “renunciation of the threat or use of force and promotion of rule
of law” also enshrined in the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC)
played very little role in impacting the stance of ASEAN on armed conflict, as in the case
of Russia-Ukraine. ASEAN issued weaker statements comparing to the UNGA’s and in
the end, Thailand along with two other ASEAN member countries abstained from
condemning Russia’s “referendum” and the demands from the UNGA that Russia cancel
the annexation.

According to a statement from Suriya Chindawongse, Thailand’s permanent

representative affirmed that Thailand respected the UN Charter and was against forced
territorial acquisition; nonetheless, it worried that “the emotionally charged
atmosphere” by which the voting took place might minimize the chance for peaceful
conflict resolution (Thai PBS World, 2022).

Formally, the AOIP was still employed as a point of reference also by external powers.
Thailand and the US issued the Communiqué on Strategic Alliance and Partnership in
2022, where both sides reaffirmed commitments towards the main areas of the AOIP,
and event went beyond that with added element of democratic emphasis:

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 “Promoting democratic development in an open and transparent way is
essential to implementing our shared vision of an Indo-Pacific that is free,
open, inclusive and sustainable. Strong democratic institutions, independent
civil society, and free and fair elections are central to this vision, allowing
our respective societies to reach their full potential. We intend to
strengthen our shared values and ideals, including the rule of law;
protecting human rights and human security; adhering to humanitarian
principles, including non-refoulement; promoting sustainable
development; and upholding resilient democracies (Ministry of Foreign
Affairs, Kingdom of Thailand, Thailand-United States” Communiqué on
Strategic Alliance and Partnership).

The Communiqué further stated that:

“We reaffirm our support for Association of Southeast Asian Nations

(ASEAN) centrality and the vital role that ASEAN plays in addressing
traditional and non-traditional security challenges through ASEAN-led
mechanisms, including the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting Plus
(ADMM-Plus) and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), guided by the
ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) (Ministry of Foreign
Affairs, Kingdom of Thailand, Thailand-United States Communiqué on
Strategic Alliance and Partnership).”

It is quite interesting to note that human-centric norms including challenging issues for
Thailand such as non-refoulement is integrated into the shared vision of free and open
Indo-Pacific. The AOIP originally was not as specific in this regard. Since the AOIP was
adopted formally during Thailand’s ASEAN Chairmanship, we can see strong
correlations among the main priority deliverables Thailand highlighted. Thailand has
also integrated its national interests into the deliverables, enhanced in the ASEAN
context. These include the area of marine cooperation resulting in the Summit’s adoption
of the Bangkok Declaration on Combating Marine Debris in the ASEAN region, the
ASEAN Maritime Forum with a focus on maritime safety and connectivity, ASEAN
Centre for Sustainable Development Studies and Dialogue, ASEAN Digital Integration
Framework Action plan, and the ASEAN Innovation Roadmap.

As mentioned above, core ideas laid out in the AOIP correlated well with Thailand’s
priorities such as avoidance of behavior based on a zero-sum game, inter alia. In one of
the rationales at the beginning of the document, the AOIP states that:

“ASEAN, which for decades has been engaging in the development of an

inclusive regional architecture, needs to consistently come up with its
collective leadership in forging and shaping the vision for closer

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 cooperation in the Indo-Pacific and to continue to maintain its central role
in the evolving regional architecture in Southeast Asia and its
surrounding regions. ASEAN also needs to continue being an honest
broker1 within the strategic environment of competing interests”
(ASEAN, ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific).

It is the role of an honest broker to which this chapter now turns, especially Thailand’s
past roles as ASEAN country coordinator for ASEAN-China relations during the South
China Sea conflict in 2012-2015. Building on this past success, it is interesting to consider
how Thailand could utilize the basis of the AOIP and how ASEAN positioned itself as
honest broker. Thailand remains the driver of the development of the Code of Conduct
(COC), which stalled due to Covid-19.

Pitakdumrongkit saw that Thailand’s role as the country coordinator for ASEAN-China
relations were necessary towards the first official consultation on a Code of Conduct
(COC) in the South China Sea in 2013 (Kaekamol, 2015 & Kaewkamol, 2016). This was no
small feat given that there have been some tensions in the area in the year before Thailand
assumed the task. Thailand was careful to adhere to what China already agreed upon in
principle such as the DOC, and worked upon that basis. It was successful in keeping the
channel of communication open through the three Cs strategy: Community-building,
Connectivity, and Code of Conduct (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Thailand, 2015).

In effect, Thailand reinforced the core norms recognized by ASEAN and later the AOIP,
i.e., sovereign equality and rules-based governance via lower-level political engagement
such as marine environmental protection and research. This was also to stabilize the
atmosphere since there was a rift at the 45th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting. When China
was against the Philippines’ Triple Action Plan (TAP), Thailand as country coordinator
had to reassure China when it hosted the 8th ASEAN-China Senior Officials’ Meeting on
the Implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea
(SOM on DOC) and the 12th ASEAN-China Joint Working Group on the Implementation
of the DOC (JWG on DOC) in October 2014 (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Thailand, 2022).

Also, Prime Minister Prayuth reaffirmed Thailand’s commitment as country coordinator

for ASEAN-China relations and listed three proposals:

1. Promoting sustainable economic development through trade liberalization, with

emphasis on agricultural sector and products.
2. Enhancing regional connectivity in all dimensions by developing connectivity
network and increase economic capabilities.

1 Italics by author

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 3. Strengthening ASEAN - China relations and resolving pending issues in order
to realise the strength of the strategic partnership. (Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
Thailand, The 17th ASEAN-China Summit).

It can be seen that Thai approach towards conflict transformation was similar to the
principles in the AOIP. One of the reasons that Thailand had space to act stemmed from
the fact that it was a non-claimant, meaning that it had no claims on the territorial
disputes in the South China Sea. China also sent positive signals regarding Thailand as
driver for the actual COC in the context of the AOIP, especially when the US Department
of Defense Indo-Pacific Strategy Report 2019 could be read at targeting China: “…
geopolitical rivalry between free and repressive world order visions… China seeks to
reorder the region to its advantage by leveraging military modernization, influence
operations, and predatory economics to coerce other nations” (US Department of
Defense, 2019).

Conclusion

Looking toward the future, the AOIP might work best as incremental, preventive
diplomatic tool. There are three factors that Thailand might wish to consider if it would
like to utilize AOIP to support and enrich its foreign policy:

1. Within the regional dynamics that new strategic groupings such as the
Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and AUKUS have facilitated, how can Thai
foreign policy remain relevant in changing strategic environment? It is in the
interest of Thailand that the regional security agenda not be dominated by
external powers. The AOIP reflected Thailand’s wish to remain balanced, where
the lessons when it acted as country coordinator for ASEAN-China relations
were valuable.

2. How could Thailand exercise value commitments that it has proclaimed to

subscribed to? These values such as “openness, transparency, inclusivity, a rules-
based framework, good governance, respect for sovereignty, non-intervention,
complementarity with existing cooperation frameworks, equality, mutual
respect, mutual trust, mutual benefit and respect for international law, such as
the UN Charter, the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea…” (ASEAN) are
already recognized by the international community. It is crucial that the values
are also reflected in Thai foreign policy in a consistent manner.

3. How can Thailand encourage partners in the region to step up in areas that
Thailand has already highlighted as crucial in its foreign policy such as a bio-
circular-green economy, sustainability, and food security? It is interesting to note
that in stepping up its strategic engagement with the Indo-Pacific region, the EU
Strategy for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific integrated human security as a

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 priority area (European Union External Action, 2022)2 along with other areas that
would not be misplaced in the AOIP such as digital connectivity and sustainable
and inclusive prosperity. As one among the very few countries in the region that
adopted the term officially - and even reformed a Ministry to deal precisely with
the issue - Thailand in in a good position to drive the agenda further, bearing in
mind that its international agenda should correspond with its domestic record.

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-86-
 ASEAN, MALAYSIA, AND THE US-CHINA RIVALRY:
AVOIDING CONFRONTATION AND UPHOLDING
ENGAGEMENT

Geetha Govindasamy

Introduction

The Indo-Pacific strategy is in vogue now. Though there are multiple versions of the
Indo-Pacific construct, Malaysia has yet to internalize a coherent view of the strategy.
Instead, Malaysia has acquiesced to the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP)
which promotes a more non-aligned stance. The phenomenon of neutrality stands at the
core of ASEAN as well as Malaysian foreign policy discourses when dealing with
external powers. Therefore, the chapter begins with ASEAN’s basic norms and principles
as the foundation for Malaysia’s own response to the Indo-Pacific strategy that is a result
of United States-China confrontation. This is followed by Malaysia’s own foreign policy
considerations in terms of its relations with China and the US.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is no stranger to major power

rivalries. ASEAN was established during the Cold War era when there was great power
competition between the United States, Soviet Union and China. With the exception of
Thailand, all other member states have experienced foreign domination. Therefore, in
the early years, navigating major power competition became a norm for the Association.
In addition, the five founding members of ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines,
Singapore, and Thailand) fought to contain the spread of communism in their respective
states. To cope with the changing geopolitical landscape after the withdrawal of the US
from the region in the 1970s and later a rising China, strengthening internal cohesion
through a collective voice became the main goal of the Association. In particular, the
Association followed a two-pronged strategy which was to strengthen national and
regional building while managing the influence of external powers by welcoming them
into ASEAN led mechanisms.

From the outset, ASEAN embarked on promoting a neutral Southeast Asia in the face of
continued great power politics. The creation of the 1971 declaration of a Zone of Peace,
Freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN), a Malaysian initiative, signaled the neutralization
of Southeast Asia. Among others, ASEAN sought recognition for ZOPFAN’s principles
of free from outside interferences in domestic affairs, respect for the territorial integrity
of all states, and abstention from threat or use of force and peaceful settlement of
international disputes (ZOPFAN 1971). These principles were later incorporated into the
1976 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. When the communist threat abated in 1989, it can

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be reasonably argued that ASEAN and its member states became free from external
political interference and began concentrating on cooperation with multiple actors.

Malaysia and the rest of the ASEAN member states endorsed the concept of ASEAN
centrality that refers to the Association as the main driver of regional cooperation with
external partners. External powers understood that they had to accept ASEAN centrality
if they desired to participate in ASEAN led mechanisms such as: the ASEAN Regional
Forum (ARF), the East Asia Summit (EAS), and the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting
Plus (ADMM-Plus). Unfortunately, ASEAN centrality is under threat as the Southeast
Asian region has once again become a theater for the competing agendas of the US and
China. With the passage of time, most ASEAN states, like Malaysia, have come to accept
the presence of the US and China - especially in terms of economic and security
influences in varying degrees. Moreover, ASEAN member states are aware that external
involvement is crucial in promoting regional peace and development. However, US-
China rivalry is a cause of concern for ASEAN and its member states like Malaysia.

In 2017, the Trump administration came up with the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP),
supported by regional allies to promote economic and communal principles in governing
the Pacific as well as the Indian oceans. Following in Trump’s footsteps, the Biden
administration unveiled its own version of the Indo-Pacific strategy in February 2022.
Basically, the US seeks to promote rule of law, freedom of trade and navigation as well
as develop mutual economic prosperity. The US clearly opposes the rising influence of
China as well as certain aggressive Chinese activities in the South China Sea. The
articulation of this strategy is designed to limit Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific
region where Southeast Asian is a key constituent.

The Indo-Pacific strategy espoused by the US threatens to derail ASEAN unity and
centrality. The promotion of ASEAN centrality meant that external powers had to
acknowledge that the Association was the voice of Southeast Asia. However, ASEAN’s
traditional agenda setting authority is being diluted with the emergence of the Indo-
Pacific strategy and its related alliances like that of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue
(Quad) and the trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the
United States (AUKUS). Even though the US claims that ASEAN is the main drive of the
Indo-Pacific strategy, the Quad and AUKUS are not anchored by ASEAN centrality. In
other words, the non-participation of ASEAN in these alliances reflects ASEAN centrality
is fast becoming mere rhetoric. The Association and its members are cautious in
managing these new forms of mini/multilateralism. So as not to be trapped in US-China
rivalry, all member states have signed on to the principles of the AOIP. Basically, the
AOIP reaffirmed long-standing norms of inclusivity which includes ASEAN centrality
and a rejection of great power competition that is viewed as detrimental to regional
developmental goals and security.

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Then there is also the issue of ASEAN and its members being pushed subtly to choose a
side between Beijing and Washington.

In reality, ASEAN members realize that both Washington and Beijing are needed to
navigate present regional challenges. While Beijing is a much-needed economic partner,
the US plays the role of a security patron in Southeast Asia. In understanding how the
ASEAN member states have reacted to the Indo-Pacific strategy, Malaysia is a great
exemplar of how smaller states behave in the midst of major power competition. At the
regional level, as one of the founding members of ASEAN, Malaysia’s responses to great
power competition are dictated by the norms and practices set by ASEAN, including
supporting the AOIP as well as upholding ASEAN centrality. Concurrently, Kuala
Lumpur is managing the US-China rivalry by engaging both Washington and Beijing.

Malaysia-China Relations

It must be noted that both the US and China’s importance in the region fluctuates
according to the national interests of each ASEAN member state. For example, Malaysia
is friendly to all countries. In particular, it emphasizes an equidistant, flexible, and
pragmatic foreign policy towards China and the US. Among the ASEAN countries,
Malaysia was the first to establish relations with Communist led-China in 1974. From the
beginning, Malaysia has sought to engage China positively in all sectors. Like most
relations, Kuala Lumpur-Beijing relations have seen some fluctuations but overall ties
are deepening, especially where trade and investment are concerned.

Understandably, containing and competing with China does not sit well with Malaysian
policymakers. Not surprisingly, the country has responded reactively rather than
bandwagoning with the Indo-Pacific strategy. In line with ASEAN’s inclusivity
precedent, Kuala Lumpur prefers managing China and the US not only by engaging
them bilaterally but also often within ASEAN-led mechanisms. This explains why
Malaysia does not have its own version of Indo-Pacific strategy or why internal
discourses on the Indo-Pacific strategy are so rare. In fact, in two key policy documents,
neither the 2019 Malaysia’s Foreign Policy Framework nor the 2020 Defense White Paper
mentions the Indo-Pacific strategy even once. Given this, it can be deduced that Malaysia
refuses to center its foreign policy interests within the broader Indo-Pacific region.
Instead, these documents stress that the Malaysian foreign policy has long been premised
on pursuing an independent outlook on security as well as economic policies. Economic
development and security sustainability are two factors that mainly drive Malaysia’s
policy considerations. In particular, the Foreign Policy Framework is instructive on this:

“…the New Malaysia will continue to pursue a foreign policy that

will aim to protect the security of the country and its
people…Malaysia will continue to seek economic prosperity for

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 the country and its people” (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Malaysia,
2019, p.15).

Further, foreign policy emphasis has always been on shared interests and mutual
cooperation with external partners. Veritably, it does not want to be caught in a
geopolitical clash between China and the US. In line with this, Malaysia is cautious not
to exclusively align itself with one particular country. Malaysian Ambassador to China
Raja Nushirwan Zainal Abidin (Xie & Bai, 2020) explains the reason for this stand: “We
will not take sides… for countries like Malaysia, it's commonly said that to choose is to
lose.” Malaysia’s relationships with both China and the US are distinctive, and they’re
both booming. Like his predecessors, the newly minted Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar
Ibrahim has indicated that while China is a pivotal foreign policy partner, strengthening
relations with the US, Europe, India and ASEAN is equally important (Shahabudin,
2022). Even so, past actions imply that at times, the country bends to whichever direction
that benefits its national interests most.

In terms of China’s economic influence in the country, Malaysia is China's second-largest

trading partner in ASEAN while China has been Malaysia’s largest trading partner for
13 consecutive years (China International Import Export, 2022). Given this, it is not
surprising that bilateral trade volume from January to August 2022 reached
US$131.2billion and it is expected that trade could surpass US$190 billion by December
2022 (Kaos Jr, 2022; The Star, 2022). Though China and the US are key trading partners
for Malaysia, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has provided an impetus for more
advanced relations with Beijing. Not surprisingly, Malaysia was one of the earliest
countries to support the BRI since its conception. Launched by the Chinese government
in 2013, the BRI was designed to accelerate trade and economic growth by improving
global infrastructure development and connectivity. Malaysia’s leadership has shown
that it is willing to collaborate with any country that can create a favorable trade and
investment environment for mutual benefits. In the last few years, political elites have
increasingly cooperated with China. BRI projects, mostly related to construction,
transport and digital infrastructure development, has enabled the Malay-led
government-linked companies (GLCs) to collaborate with Chinese entities. This in turn
not only solidified the status of Malay elites, they also became the key beneficiaries of
BRI projects (Shamsunahar, 2022). Moreover, the legitimacy of these political elites was
further enhanced with ‘the ability to provide jobs and economic opportunities to their
constituents’ (Bush, 2022).

Where BRI-related infrastructure and connectivity projects are concerned, China and
Malaysia have been involved in major projects like that of the development of the
Malaysia-China Kuantan Industrial Park (MCKIP), China Railway Rolling Stock Corp’s
Rolling Stock Center (CRRC), Gemas-Johor Bahru Electrified Double-Tracking Project
(G-JB), East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) and Kuantan Port Expansion Project. For Malaysia,
economic connectivity is key to improving internal and external trade and commercial

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activities. As economic growth is mostly focused on major cities, Malaysia needs to
expand economic activities inland to provide greater employment and equity ownership
opportunities to its rural population. Hence, when completed, the ECRL is expected not
only to fulfil infrastructure needs but also to assist in accelerating domestic development
as well as regional integration that will facilitate trade and people-to-people exchange
between Malaysia and its neighbors. In the long run, the development along the larger
Kunming-Singapore railway, also known as the Pan-Asian Railway Network is going to
increase China's economic ties with Malaysia as the ECRL will be linked to the China-
Laos Railway and the China-Thailand Railway.

As China is one of the frontrunners of the digital economy, the idea of a more competitive
Malaysian foreign policy is also a response to the changing needs to accelerate the
adoption of Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies and foster the development
of a digital economy. In line with the goals outlined in Malaysia’s Shared Prosperity
Vision 2030 blueprint of 2019 which partly focuses on innovation in digital economy, the
BRI is expected to further contribute in areas like financial technology, e-commerce, and
advancement of big data, cloud computing, smart cities and mobile payment (Ministry
of Foreign Affairs, The Republic of China, 2022). Given the supremacy of BRI projects in
Malaysia’s domestic political landscape, China has indeed become a vital economic
partner for Malaysian opening.

In connection with regional economic integration, Kuala Lumpur and Beijing’s

participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is expected
to further strengthen economic and trade cooperation in a period of economic downturn
and supply chain disruptions. While the RCEP came into force on January 1, 2022,
Malaysia's participation come into force a few months later on March 18, 2022. The RCEP
- the world’s largest free trade deal is expected to employ unified trade and customs
procedures - creates an intra-Asia logistics and shipping network more efficient and
boosts digital trade which will cut costs of handling supply chain. Malaysia is expected
to take advantage of China’s huge market access with lower costs as well as benefit from
a stable industrial and supply chain as a result of preferential policies of RCEP and the
China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (China International Import Export, 2022). If China ever
succeeds in becoming a member of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific
Partnership (CPTPP) trade agreement, Kuala Lumpur and Beijing will have another
opening to appear more centrally integrated into the regional economy. Given the
intertwined economic relations, it is expected that Malaysia will continue to accept
China’s involvement while downplaying contentious issues in bilateral relations.

In recent years, Malaysia’s main flashpoint with China is in the South China Sea (SCS).
Beijing claims the "nine-dash line" in the SCS which overlaps with six parties of which
Malaysia is one. Despite multiple changes in government since February 2020, Malaysia
has opted to engage rather than confront a rising China in order to achieve a peaceful
resolution. Basically, the Malaysian government sees the South China Sea as a very small

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part of a much multi-faceted relationship (Xie & Bai, 2020). Kuala Lumpur has used a
two-step approach, both bilateral and multilateral diplomatic channels to deal with
China’s SCS claims. However, this does not mean that Malaysia may not find itself drawn
in a direct conflict with China. Increasingly Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessels have
been assertive in the SCS where Malaysia continues to explore for oil. For example, the
CCG spent 258 days patrolling around Luconia Shoals claimed by Malaysia in 2019
(Jennings, 2019). Further, China has been constantly harassing work done at the
Kasawari gas field by Malaysia’s state-owned Petronas oil. The gas field is projected to
hold 3 trillion cubic feet of gas resources. Though China has demanded that Malaysia
stop its oil exploration on contested continental shelves, Zachary Abuza, Professor of
Southeast Asia Studies at the Washington-based National War College observed that
while Malaysia does not confront China directly, it uses UN Convention on the Law of
the Sea (UNCLOS) filings to deal with Chinese intimidation (Chiew, 2021). Interestingly,
rather than confronting, it has been reported that the Royal Malaysian Navy (RMN)
responds to Chinese incursions by ‘shadowing’ CCG vessels. This particular action is a
form of ‘assertion of presence and a safety measure’ when and if the CCG disrupts
operations (Syailendra, 2021).

Interestingly, it seems that Malaysia is also not in favor of involving US naval ships in
the SCS dispute. Undoubtedly, Malaysia does not want to appear to be aligned to the US
in the conflict for fear of antagonizing China. The US dispatched navy ships when the
Chinese Coast Guard was present in the West Capella standoff involving Malaysian and
Vietnamese vessels. The response was telling when the then Foreign Minister Datuk Seri
Hishammuddin Hussein remarked,

“We must avoid unintended, accidental incidents in these waters.

While international law guarantees the freedom of navigation, the
presence of warships and vessels in the South China Sea has the
potential to increase tensions that in turn may result in
miscalculations which may affect peace, security and stability in
the region” (Wisma Putra, 2020).

Ultimately, since Malaysia values its economic cooperation with China and with limited
deterrence capability, the SCS issue is being dealt with rather quietly by Malaysia.

Multilaterally, Malaysia uses ASEAN–led mechanisms such as the ASEAN Regional

Forum (ARF) and the ASEAN-China Dialogue to address common security concerns
with China. In addition, Kuala Lumpur supports maritime cooperation in the South
China Sea through the full implementation of the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of
Parties in the South China Sea (DoC), the conclusion of the Code of Conduct in the South
China Sea (CoC) and the Declaration for a Decade of Coastal and Marine Environmental
Protection in the South China Sea (2017–2027) in dealing with the dispute. As seen above,
the manner in which Malaysia deals with China are multifaceted.

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Malaysia - United States Relations

There is an assumption that the US’ presence is declining in Southeast Asia. Obama’s
pivot to Asia, Trump’s own version of Indo-Pacific, and Biden’s Asia policies have not
convinced ASEAN member states that the US sees Southeast Asia as a pivotal region of
importance when compared to East Asia (Huong, 2020). In contrast to the public
acceptance of China, Kuala Lumpur-Washington relations have been kept low key.
Intermittently, anti-American sentiments do flare up among Malaysians, especially
whenever US actions in the Palestine-Israel conflict contradicts with the idea of
defending and supporting the freedom and struggles of Palestinians. Moreover,
Malaysia is conscious not to be seen as siding with the US in the context of the US-China
rivalry. For these reasons, Kuala Lumpur has been reluctant to be profiled as too close to
the US. Nonetheless, Malaysian policymakers have always taken great pride in
maintaining strong continuity in maintaining positive Malaysia-US relations.

The year 2022 marks 65 years of Malaysia-US diplomatic relations. In April 2014, bilateral
relations were elevated to a Comprehensive Partnership. Similar to other past visits by
prominent American personalities such as Mike Pompeo, Rex Tillerson, Hillary Rodham
Clinton, and Condoleezza, US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken’s visit to Malaysia in
December 2021 was seen as advancing US engagement with Malaysia in particular and
Southeast Asia in general. Conversely, Blinken’s visit was also designed to promote the
efficacy of the FOIP. Though not as influential as China, the US is also Malaysia’s
important trading and investment partner. Malaysia- US cooperation indicates a diverse
range of cooperation from trade and investment, digital and green economy, cyber-
security, defense, health, tourism, education, and people-to-people ties (Wisma Putra,
2021). While Malaysia-US trade volume amounted to RM178.18 billion, the
manufacturing sector saw US investment of RM3.7 billion in 2020 (Wisma Putra, 2021).

The Biden administration's Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), involving 13

countries provides new opportunities for Malaysia’s further integration into the global
economy. On top of that, it is expected that the IPEF would also allow for Malaysians to
collaborate with the US in newer sectors like digital economy, technology, sustainable
supply chains, decarbonization as well as clean energy and corruption. Having said that,
the IPEF’s main weaknesses include not allowing access to the American market, nor is
there room for tariff reductions between member countries. Given this, most Southeast
Asian economies like Malaysia are more likely to end up focusing on the RCEP as well
as the BRI. For its part, China may embark on making RCEP a successful trade agreement
in order to counter the IPEF. In essence, Malaysia may be more receptive if and when the
IPEF actually provides tangible benefits, such as: increasing US investment or replicating
Japan’s Partnership for Quality Infrastructure, Australia’s Partnership for Infrastructure
(P4I) or the US-led Blue Dot Network to spur Malaysia’s economic recovery and growth.
Such a situation might even make the IPEF an attractive alternative to the BRI. For the
time being, the Malaysian government seems to have adopted a hedging strategy in

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agreeing to join the IPEF so as not to look isolated from the rest of the Indo-Pacific
countries.

From the US perspective, Malaysia is an important partner in the US led Indo-Pacific

strategy, especially in ensuring a free and open maritime domain. Though not highly
publicized in the Malaysian media, bilateral security cooperation seems to be the
cornerstone in enhancing maritime security, at least in the SCS. To this end, security
cooperation in counterterrorism, combatting trafficking in persons, human rights, non-
proliferation, and maritime security that involves bilateral and multilateral exercises and
visits remains a staple in bilateral relations. As a littoral state that lacks adequate
maritime assets and having to constantly put up with Chinese incursions in the SCS,
Malaysia has openly welcomed defense assistance and training given by the US armed
forces. In supporting Malaysia to improve its maritime enforcement, since 2017 the US
has contributed US$200 million (RM853 million) in grant assistance to the Malaysian
Armed Forces which included ScanEagle unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), maritime
surveillance upgrades, and long-range air defense radar since 2017 (Malay Mail, 2020).

Moreover, security engagements incorporate multiple, yearly joint military training and
exercises like Cope Taufan, Keris Strike, Tiger Strike, and Air Warrior (Malay Mail, 2020).
Recently, bilateral maritime ties were further strengthened between US Naval Forces and
Malaysian Armed Forces (MAF) through the Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training
(CARAT) Malaysia between November 21-29, 2000 in Kuantan, Pahang. The training,
designed to demonstrate interoperability, featured anti-submarine, air and surface
warfare training coupled with medical, dental and antiterrorism defensive. The US views
such training as a security sharing commitment with key Southeast Asian partners as
well as a preferred mode of maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific (Defense Visual
Information Distribution Service, 2022). In addition, to manage non-traditional security
such as environmental disasters, the US pledged to contribute a mobile intensive care
unit worth USD 1.5 million to the Malaysian Armed Forces for emergency purposes (US
Embassy Kuala Lumpur, 2021).

On one hand, robust security cooperation with the US has certainly strengthened
bilateral relations. On the other, this does not indicate that Malaysia supports the US led
Indo-Pacific strategy. Malaysia’s pragmatic foreign policy approach and dependence on
Chinese investments and trade certainly forces Kuala Lumpur to be cautious in its
approach towards the US. In order to balance its bilateral relations with the US and
China, Malaysia has chosen to engage both countries in differing degrees in distinct
domains. Malaysia’s preferred mode of management in overcoming the US-China
rivalry is through peaceful diplomatic undertakings while maintaining strong bilateral
ties and this stance will persist in the coming decade.

The Indo-Pacific strategy and its related minilateral alliances are definitely a cause of
concern for Malaysian policymakers. For Malaysia, peace and stability of the Asia Pacific

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is essential for its commercial activities. When Australia, the United Kingdom, and the
United States unveiled their Enhanced Trilateral Security Partnership (AUKUS) in late
2021, Malaysia openly showed its discontent. AUKUS, which includes nuclear powered
submarines, directly played into Malaysia’s security vulnerabilities of nuclear
proliferation and the sustainability of peace in the SCS. For Kuala Lumpur, the potential
emergence of an arms race in Southeast and East Asia is concerning. Malaysia which
recognizes the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, ASEAN’s
Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone (SEANWFZ) Treaty, and ZOPFAN fears
AUKUS has the potential to heighten tensions in the SCS (Wisma Putra, 2021). With
reference to the Quad, featuring Japan, Australia, India, and the US, former prime
minister of Malaysia Dr. Mahathir Mohamad noted that the encirclement of China,
provoking Beijing, may produce an economic backlash. Instead of attempting to limit
Chinese influence, he suggested a direct dialogue with China may bring about peace and
stability to the region (China Daily, 2021). The complete exclusion of China from Quad
which denotes containment is a disconcerting attribute for a Malaysia that practices
neutrality. Hence, the Malaysian government’s response towards the Quad has been
muted in order to avoid upsetting China.

Malaysia and the Navigation of the Indo-Pacific Strategy

The repercussions of the rise of China and the US attempt to limit Chinese influence in
the Indo-Pacific region has culminated into a protracted US-China rivalry. Smaller states
like Malaysia may look like they are trapped but the reality is that Kuala Lumpur has
forged its own path in dealing with both China and the US. Using quiet diplomacy and
engagement at the bilateral and multilateral levels, relations with both Beijing and
Washington are as robust as ever. By bandwagoning in the AOIP, Malaysia has
successfully remained neutral and at the same time fully engaged. While the FOIP is
increasingly pressuring Southeast Asian states to choose sides, Malaysia is well placed
to take advantage of the multiple overlapping initiatives like the BRI and the IPEF.
However, in the fullness of time, the efficacy of these two initiatives depends on how
attractive they are to Malaysian interests. Due to long historical ties, advantageous
economic bonds, and the existence of elite support, Kuala Lumpur-Beijing relations will
continue to be positive in the years ahead. Meanwhile, against the backdrop of American
commitment towards the goal of a free Indo-Pacific, expansion of Kuala Lumpur-
Washington relations beyond economic and security engagements remains possible
under the Biden administration.

While Malaysia practices neutrality where major power rivalry is concerned, the
country’s economy depends on global markets which makes it vulnerable to any external
disruptions or shocks as that will affect the demands for Malaysian exports. Both China
and the US are leading trading and security partners respectively for Malaysia.
Therefore, it is not surprising that Malaysia tends to take a hedging posture towards
China and the US in order to reduce any exposure to external risks.

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It can be assumed that the US-China confrontation is here to stay for the foreseeable
future, making it crucial for Malaysia to find alternate ways to position itself
advantageously in an unstable global environment. To safeguard peace and stability,
Malaysia has been working in tandem with other like-minded neighbors to collectively
overcome vulnerabilities due to trade tensions. Building partnerships through RCEP,
IPEF, BRI and the CPTPP where either Washington or Beijing are part of the equation, is
expected to somewhat decrease Malaysia’s vulnerabilities to major power competition.

Malaysia has also had the advantage of strengthening relations with its East Asian
partners like Japan and South Korea through the country’s Look East Policy (LEP) which
was established in 1982. Though attention towards the LEP has been intermittent, the
government of Anwar Ibrahim has pledged to forge stronger ties with neighboring
countries. Against this backdrop, the LEP that mainly concentrates on attracting Japanese
and Korean trade and investment needs to be expanded to include a security dimension
as well. Recently, the discourse on LEP has also transcended to include the FOIP making
it easier for Malaysia to be included in the general debates on the manner in which
middle powers like Japan and Korea can contribute to a stronger region that promotes
shared interests and prosperity.

In view of the fact that both Japan and South Korea have their own versions of the Indo-
Pacific strategy, Malaysia is well positioned to collaborate with Tokyo and Seoul to seek
a policy to balance relations with both the US and China without taking sides. In fact,
South Korea has just created the Korea ASEAN Solidarity Initiative (KAI), which is
designed to discuss security aspects with ASEAN member states in addition to political
and economic cooperation. Since South Korea adheres to the concept of ASEAN
Centrality and AOIP, it has become rather straightforward for Malaysia and others to
collaborate with Seoul on issues of common interest. In terms of the SCS dispute, as
mentioned before, Malaysia relies on quiet diplomacy and ASEAN-led mechanisms to
communicate with China. Despite not being claimant countries, Japan and Korea view
the SCS as a vital area for their economic wellbeing and supply chain. As such, it is
expected that together with ASEAN, Seoul and Tokyo would be more emboldened to
speak out on Chinese harassment and incursions within the SCS. To this end, Japan has
been assisting ASEAN states in terms of beefing of security of the SCS through
equipment and capacity building efforts. For example, the Malaysian Maritime
Enforcement Agency (MMEA) was provided with two patrol vessels by Japan in 2016.
In addition, Japan has been involved in capacity building programs with Malaysian coast
guard officers for over 17 years (Salleh, 2022). In comparison, South Korea just began an
institutionalized defense arrangement in April 2022 encompassing future collaborations
in joint activities between the Malaysian Armed Forces and the Korean Armed Forces.

In conclusion, Malaysia needs to work towards a unified regional response to reduce US-
China strategic competition. With neutrality and engagement as the core policies in
dealing with Beijing and Washington, Malaysia has been able to maintain cordial

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relations with both countries. While Malaysia’s relations with China remains friendly, it
is concerned with Beijing’s aggressive behavior in the SCS. Comparatively, though
Malaysia welcomes US assistance in strengthening its security and defense capabilities,
Kuala Lumpur is not in favor of US naval presence in the SCS for fear of escalating
tensions. Against this backdrop, Malaysia has shown resilience in being able to get away
with not choosing sides in the US-China rivalry ecosystem. The country has managed to
achieve an equilibrium between economic needs and security considerations through
mutually beneficial collaboration.

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