Donald Trump’s fate in ‘hush money’ trial in the hands of 12 New Yorkers

Good morning and welcome to US Election Countdown! A programming note: I will be on vacation next week so I leave you in Emily’s very capable hands. In the meantime, here’s what’s on deck today:

• Jury deliberations

• Nikki Haley’s former donors

• Swing state polling

Donald Trump’s fate is now in the hands of the jury.

These 12 New Yorkers — seven men and five women — began deliberations yesterday morning in Trump’s “hush money” trial, and could hand down a verdict at any moment now [free to read].

After deliberating for more than four hours yesterday, the panel sent two notes to the judge, one asking for some testimony to be read back to them, and the other to hear the jury instructions again. Deliberations resume at 9.30am Eastern time today.

New York law requires that jurors reach a unanimous decision on each of the 34 criminal charges against Trump. If they ultimately deadlock, the judge would have to declare a mistrial, and the Manhattan district attorney’s office would decide whether to try the case again.

If we get a guilty verdict, it’s unlikely that Trump would get locked up. He would likely appeal the verdict, in what would be a months-long process. He would also be a first-time offender, and there would be a ton of unprecedented logistical challenges around putting a former president, who must have Secret Service protection, in jail. It is not, however, out of the question.

Justice Juan Merchan told the jury on Wednesday to “consult with each other” and “not surrender an honest view of the evidence simply because [they] want the trial to end”.

As Merchan outlined the charges against Trump, the former president sometimes shook his head but at other points seemed to snooze. Afterwards, he told reporters that “Mother Teresa could not beat these charges” and “the whole thing is rigged”. As the jury deliberated, Trump railed against the case on his Truth Social platform, saying the trial is “a third world election interference hoax”.

Jury deliberations come after nine long hours of closing arguments on Tuesday, when prosecutors and defence attorneys outlined competing narratives of testimony from star witness Michael Cohen.

Campaign clips: the latest election headlines

• Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito has refused to step aside from cases related to Trump or January 6, despite reporting that flags affiliated with the “stop the steal” movement were hung outside his homes. [Free to read]

• The relationship between Trump and Elon Musk is growing, and the two have discussed an advisory role for the Tesla chief if the Republican makes it back into office. (WSJ)

• Democrats are in “freakout” mode over President Joe Biden’s re-election prospects as he lags behind Trump in the polls. (Politico) 

• How will the Biden campaign respond if Trump is convicted? (NYT)

• Robert F Kennedy Jr has filed an election complaint alleging that CNN colluded with Biden and Trump to exclude him from the June 27 debate. (AP News)

The US-China geopolitical relationship: what is the way forward? Join FT, Nikkei Asia and Asia Society experts for a free webinar on June 18 and put your questions to our panel now.

Behind the scenes

Now that Nikki Haley has said she will vote for Trump, a big question is whether her deep-pocketed donors will follow suit.

Keith Rabois, a venture capitalist who gave Haley’s campaign more than $1mn, told the FT’s Alex Rogers that “it is inconceivable that I will vote for Biden”.

Other Republican megadonors such as Ken Griffin and Paul Singer gave millions to Haley’s presidential bid, but have yet to say whether they’ll back Biden or Trump.

Art Pope, a retail magnate who gave $600,000 to a pro-Haley group, said he was waiting for Trump to pick his running mate before deciding:

I want to see if President Trump is going to appeal to the traditional conservatives and unify the conservative movement and the Republican party with his VP pick. 

I still want to see if President Trump formally adopts a nationalist populist industrial policy, including the 10 per cent universal tariff tax, and the details of the same, before I make a final decision.

And Georgia-based Republican donor Eric Tanenblatt pointed out to Alex that Haley called on Trump to reach out to her backers.

“I have made no decision,” he said.

Datapoint

Biden and vice-president Kamala Harris were in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania yesterday launching a campaign initiative to court Black voters, who will be important for winning the battlegrounds.

With Trump stuck in court for the past five weeks, Biden has had the swing state campaign trail largely to himself. Yet Trump is still leading in every one.

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Of the seven swing states, Biden is performing the best in the Midwestern rustbelt. He trails Trump by 0.6 per cent in Michigan and 1.4 per cent in Wisconsin. In Pennsylvania, which many think he must carry in order to win, Biden is 1.8 points behind Trump.

Trump is doing best in North Carolina and Nevada, where he leads by 6.2 and 5.7 points, respectively.

While Biden has committed more than $140mn to adverts that will air in swing states (many of them closer to Election Day), Trump groups have spent nothing on battleground ad buys.  

Instead, Trump has spent at least $80mn — more than a quarter of his campaign donations — on legal fees.

Viewpoints

• Democrats seem to think voters will wake up before sleepwalking into a second Trump presidency, writes Edward Luce, but the ex-commander-in-chief is proving difficult to stop. 

• Dive into this profile of Robert F Kennedy Jr, whose campaign John Hendrickson dubs “the most consequential independent presidential run in decades”. (The Atlantic)

• Those unhappy with their options for president have something important to learn from Ken Burns, writes Jennifer Rubin. (Washington Post)

• Nate Cohn reminds us that despite the polling headlines, the presidential race is still close. (NYT)

• Eric Levitz offers a theory as to why Biden is struggling to get the support of young and nonwhite voters. (Vox)