地震預測

  此條目介紹的是地震发生前的预测。关于地震发生後發布警報的系统，请见「地震预警系统」。

舊金山灣區震災危害度圖表，描繪了2032年前發生大地震的機率。

地震預測（earthquake prediction）是預測一次地震發生的時間、地點和規模。地震學家目前仍無法預測地震的確切發生時間，然而對地下構造瞭解的進步，科學家能透過震災危害度評估，提供特定規模的地震在未來數年到數十年之間，發生在某區域的機率，以供建築物和公共建設設定最低防震規範。雖然部份證據表明，對某些區域的地震預報或許有實用價值，然而這些技術的可靠性既未確立，也無法重製，所以地震學家及地質學家一般認為實用的地震預測還是夢想。

爭議

人們試圖以各種自然現象預測地震，例如電磁場、天氣狀況、地震雲、土壤或地下水的氡氣或氫氣含量、井水水位及動物行為等。

地震預測迄今仍深具爭議性；一方面是因為資料不足，另一方面則缺乏能證實上述因果聯繫的科學理論。此外，只要做出大量預測，便容易碰巧言中。大部分的預測方法都基於機率模型；由於大地震鮮少發生，其地點與時間又相當集中，目前我們很難鑑定一次「成功」的預測是否只是僥倖而已。

2009年拉奎拉地震發生後，幾位科學家因未能提出足夠警告，依過失殺人罪被判6年徒刑，在歐美科學界引發一片驚慌和撻伐之聲，學者警告這恐造成寒蟬效應。 厄爾斯特大學（University of Ulster）地震物理學教授史迪西（Sandy Steacy）認為：「若維持原判，這項判決將對義大利和全歐洲的地震科學造成寒蟬效應。」科學工作者關懷聯盟（UCS）學者郝普恩（Michael Halpern）認為：「這項決定荒謬又危險，美國官員應該非難它，義大利總統乔治奥·纳波利塔诺（Giorgio Napolitano）應該推翻这个决定。」英國地質調查所（BGS）的穆森（Roger Musson）說：「這6名科學家說的是正確的，任何地震學家都會支持他們的說法。他們盡力提供科學的建議卻被判刑，這是錯的。」

預測方法

電磁波異常

實驗證明，岩石在破裂之前，會釋放出電磁波，然而對於如何影響到大的範圍仍有許多疑問；部份研究則認為是岩石內的石英受到壓力時產生的壓電效應所造成；也有人認為是由於地下水位的改變所引起。

Demeter微型衛星

Demeter（希臘神話的女神得墨忒耳）為地震區電磁放射偵測（英文："Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions"）的縮寫。Demeter衛星由法國國家太空研究中心建造，目前已觀察到某類低頻電磁活動與地震活躍帶的關係，並在2004年9月5日日本東海地方發生面波震级7.1地震前一週觀察到明顯的電離層活動及溫度變化。

VAN方法

VAN 是一套由 Varotsos、Alexopoulos 與 Nomicos 三位希臘學者在1980年代提出的地震預測法。此法以埋入地下的金屬棍偵測地震電磁信號（英文：seismic electric signals），部份學者聲稱能預測大於五級的地震，震央誤差在100公里以內、震度誤差在0.7個單位內、時間窗口為2小時至11天。這個方法受到 Sir James Lighthill 的批判性考察，此外也在日本激起一些科學上的興趣。

水氡異常

指地下水中氡气含量的突然大幅度增加或减少。在多次大地震前已观测到这种现象，其原因可能是地应力的变化使岩石释放出一定量的氡气，从而导致地下水中氡气含量的变化。

地震活動型態的改變

前震

参见：地震序列

發生在相近時間或空間上的一連串地震，依照發生次序可分為前震 、主震和餘震，難以判別主震的地震序列稱之為群震。不同型態的地震序列是由於地殼非均質所引起許多大地震在來臨前，斷層破裂區域的地震活動會明顯的增加，最著名的案例為1975年的海城地震。

動物行為

日本學者也曾對鯰魚的行為進行長期研究。

也有人主張動物的異常行為源於低頻電磁輻射信號。科羅拉多大學的學者證實石英岩斷裂時能藉壓電效應產生電磁活動。這類活動可於震前在斷層線上發生。根據最近的研究，電磁感應器能在統計學的意義上有效預測地震

中國曾有系統地研究了動物的異常表現，並在1974年12月預測隔年二月發生的海城地震；然而該次預測主要是依靠一系列的強烈前震。關於動物行為的報導通常模稜兩可；目前還無法證明動物能預知地震，即使動物能感知P波，但地震儀對此更敏感。

案例

中國

中國地震預測主要是基於震前的異常事件，例如地下水位、動物行為或前震等等。有报道与学者统计自1975年2月4日中國地震學家曾成功預報了遼寧省海城大地震起，中国地震学家根据统计学与临震异常共预测成功并发布了短期、临震预报的地震共有28次。包括了1990年9月22日北京小汤山4级地震、1994年2月16日青海共和5.8级地震、1995年7月12日云南孟连7.3级地震、1997年4月6日新疆伽师6.3级、6.4级地震、2003年云南大姚7月21日6.2级地震、10月16日6.1级地震、2003年10月25日甘肃民乐6.1级地震等。

但是1976年7月28日唐山大地震事前虽有中长期趋势判断，但并无短期、临震预报。造成當次地震242,769到655,237人死亡以及164,851人重伤；2008年5月12日的汶川大地震，同样也无短震、临震预报，最终造成69,227到300,000人死亡，374,643人受伤，17,923人失踪。

美國

2004年初，洛杉磯加利福尼亞大學由弗拉迪米爾·波洛克帶領的一群科學家預言南加州九月將有一場與2003年San Simeo地震規模相當的地震，機率是百分之五十。

到了2004年4月，加州地震預報評估委員會（CEPEC）向州政府報告「預測並不可靠，而且涉及的地域廣大（12,400平方哩），所以這些結果不能作為加州採取特殊手段的正當理由。」結果在預報的時間窗口內並無明顯地震。

義大利

2009年拉奎拉地震發生前一個月，一位名叫賈寶洛的實驗室技術人員，根據地面增加的放射性氡氣排放量，研判會有大地震發生。結果他被義大利民防單位指控危言聳聽，還被移送警方偵辦，罪名是製造民眾恐慌。而就在賈寶洛被移送的同時，官方的專家在拉奎拉召開會議，大量接受媒體訪問，保證說不會發生地震。官方的地震測報中心官員後來遭到民眾指控提供不正確的資訊，7名科學家被依過失殺人罪名、求處4年徒刑。

地震預警

更多信息：地震預警系統

地震的预警监测比地震預測更可靠，其原理是偵測P波；P波在地殼中的傳遞速度快過具破壞力的S波及雷利波，故可先期偵測。此法只能提早數秒（對於較深及較遠的大地震，或可達數十秒）预警。 現時有一套稱作 QuakeGuard™ 的系統能用這套技術自動應變，以減少人員及財產損失。

加州大學的 Richard Allen 在發表於《自然》的一篇論文中聲稱：在地震發生的前幾秒，可以從地震儀的紀錄中預判地震大小，它的結果還沒被其它學者認可。若然，則地震的早期預警將能更為有效。

參考文獻

来源

• Aceves, Richard L.; Park, Stephen K.; Strauss, David J., Statistical evaluation of the VAN Method using the historic earthquake catalog in Greece, Geophysical Research Letters, 1996-05-27, 23 (11): 1425–1428 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1425A, ISSN 1944-8007, doi:10.1029/96GL01478, （原始内容存档于2017-12-12） （英语） .

• The Ad Hoc Working Group on the December 2—3, 1990, Earthquake Prediction [AHWG], Evaluation of the December 2–3, 1990, New Madrid Seismic Zone Prediction, 1990-10-18 . Included in App. B of Spence et al. 1993.

• Aggarwal, Yash P.; Sykes, Lynn R.; Simpson, David W.; Richards, Paul G., Spatial and Temporal Variations in t_s/t_p and in P Wave Residuals at Blue Mountain Lake, New York: Application to Earthquake Prediction, Journal of Geophysical Research, 1975-02-10, 80 (5): 718–732, Bibcode:1975JGR....80..718A, doi:10.1029/JB080i005p00718 .

• Alexander, David E., The L'Aquila Earthquake of 6 April 2009 and Italian Government Policy on Disaster Response, Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research, 2010, 2 (4): 325–342 [2018-02-20], doi:10.1080/19390459.2010.511450, （原始内容存档于2021-10-14） .

• Allen, Clarence R., Responsibilities in earthquake prediction, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, December 1976, 66 (6): 2069–2074 .

• Allen, Clarence R., Earthquake Prediction – 1982 Overview, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, December 1982, 72 (6B): S331–S335 .

• Allen, Clarence R., The Southern California Earthquake Prediction of 1976 : A Prediction Unfulfilled (PDF), Proceedings of the Seminar on Earthquake Prediction Case Histories, Geneva, 12–15 October 1982: UNDRO: 77–82, 1983 .

• Anagnostopoulos, Stavros A., Letter (PDF), Physics Today, June 1998: 96 [2018-02-20], （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2016-12-20） .

• Anonymous [Haicheng Earthquake Study Delegation], Prediction of the Haicheng Earthquake, Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, May 1977, 58 (5): 236–272 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:1977EOSTr..58..236., doi:10.1029/EO058i005p00236, （原始内容存档于2018-02-20） . (Sometimes cited as Raleigh, et al., 1977.)

• Apostolidis, C., Problepsi gia seismo 6 rixter, Ethnos, Pegasus Publishing, 2008-02-10 [2016-07-16], （原始内容存档于2016-07-15） （希腊语） .

• Atwood, L. Erwin; Major, Ann Marie, Exploring the "Cry Wolf" Hypothesis, International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, November 1998, 16 (3): 279–302 [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档于2016-03-21） .

• Bakun, W. H.; Aagaard, B.; Dost, B.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Hardebeck, J. L.; Harris, R. A.; Ji, C.; Johnston, M. J. S.; Langbein, J.; Lienkaemper, J. J.; Michael, A. J.; Murray, J. R.; Nadeau, R. M.; Reasenberg, P. A.; Reichle, M. S.; Roeloffs, E. A.; Shakal, A.; Simpson, R. W.; Simpson, R. W.; and Waldhauser, F., Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake, Nature, 2005-10-13, 437 (7061): 969–974 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:2005Natur.437..969B, PMID 16222291, doi:10.1038/nature04067, （原始内容存档于2016-05-08） .

• Bakun, W.H.; Breckenridge, K.S.; Bredehoeft, J.; Burford, R.O.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Johnston, M.J.S.; Jones, L.; Lindh, A.G.; Mortensen, C.; Mueller, R. J.; Poley, C. M.; Roeloffs, E.; Schulz, S.; Segall, P.; Thatcher, W., Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Scenarios and Response Plans (PDF), U.S. Geological Survey, 1987-05-01,, Open-File Report 87-192 [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2017-03-01） .

• Bakun, W. H.; Lindh, A. G., The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment (PDF), Science, 1985-08-16, 229 (4714): 619–624, Bibcode:1985Sci...229..619B, PMID 17739363, doi:10.1126/science.229.4714.619 .

• Bakun, W. H.; McEvilly, T. V., Earthquakes near Parkfield, California: Comparing the 1934 and 1966 Sequences (PDF), Science, 1979-09-28, 205 (4413): 1375–1377, Bibcode:1979Sci...205.1375B, PMID 17732330, doi:10.1126/science.205.4413.1375 .

• Bernard, P., Plausibility of long distance electrotelluric precursors to earthquakes, Journal of Geophysical Research, 1992-11-10, 97: 17531–17546, Bibcode:1992JGR....9717531B, doi:10.1029/92JB01215 .

• Bernard, P.; LeMouel, J. L., On electrotelluric signals, A critical review of VAN, London: Lighthill, S. J. World Scientific: 118–154, 1996 .

• Bolt, Bruce A., Earthquakes and geological discovery, Scientific American Library, 1993, ISBN 0-7167-5040-6 .

• Bowman, D. D.; Quillon, G.; Sammis, C. G.; Sornette, A.; Sornette, D., An observational test of the critical earthquake concept (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 1998-10-10, 103 (10): 24,359–24,372 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:1998JGR...10324359B, arXiv:cond-mat/9803204 , doi:10.1029/98jb00792, （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2016-03-04） .

• Brown, Roger; Kulik, James, Flashbulb memories, Cognition, 1977, 5 (1): 73–99, doi:10.1016/0010-0277(77)90018-X .

• California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, Report to the Director, Governor's Office of Emergency Services (PDF), 2 March 2004a [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2013-04-29） .

• California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, Report to the Director, Governor's Office of Emergency Services, 9 December 2004b [2018年2月20日], （原始内容存档于2013年1月19日） .

• Campbell, W. H., Natural magnetic disturbance fields, not precursors, preceding the Loma Prieta earthquake, Journal of Geophysical Research, May 2009, 114 (A5): A05307 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:2009JGRA..114.5307C, doi:10.1029/2008JA013932, （原始内容存档于2017-12-12） .

• Cartlidge, Edwin, Quake Experts to Be Tried For Manslaughter, Science, 2011-06-03, 332 (6034): 1135–1136, PMID 21636750, doi:10.1126/science.332.6034.1135 .

• Cartlidge, Edwin, Aftershocks in the Courtroom, Science, 2012-10-12, 338 (6104): 184–188 [2018-02-20], PMID 23066054, doi:10.1126/science.338.6104.184, （原始内容存档于2015-01-24） .

• Castellaro, S., §2.4.3. The classical earthquake model, Mulargia, Francesco; Geller, Robert J. (编), Earthquake science and seismic risk reduction, Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers: 56–57, 2003 [2018-02-20], ISBN 9781402017780, （原始内容存档于2019-05-15） .

• Chouliaras, G.; Stavrakakis, G., Support for VAN's earthquake predictions is based on false statements. (PDF), Eos Trans. AGU, 1999, 80 (19): 216. [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2016-12-20） .

• Chouliaras, G, Seismicity anomalies prior to 8 June 2008 earthquake in Western Greece (PDF), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 2009, 9: 327–335 [2016-07-31], doi:10.5194/nhess-9-327-2009, （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2017-12-02） .

• Cicerone, Robert D.; Ebel, John E.; Britton, James, A systematic compilation of earthquake precursors (PDF), Tectonophysics, 2009-10-25, 476 (3–4): 371–396 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:2009Tectp.476..371C, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2009.06.008, （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2016-03-03） .

• Cannavò, Flavio; Arena, Alessandra; Monaco, Carmelo, Local geodetic and seismic energy balance for shallow earthquake prediction, Journal of Seismology, 2015, 19 (1): 1–8, Bibcode:2015JSeis..19....1C, doi:10.1007/s10950-014-9446-z .

• Console, R., Testing earthquake forecast hypotheses, Tectonophysics, 2001-08-30, 338 (3–4): 261–268, Bibcode:2001Tectp.338..261C, doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(01)00081-6 .

• Cowan, Hugh; Nicol, Andrew; Tonkin, Philip, A comparison of historical and paleoseismicity in a newly formed fault zone and a mature fault zone, North Canterbury, New Zealand, Journal of Geophysical Research, 1996-03-10, 101 (B3): 6021–6036, Bibcode:1996JGR...101.6021C, doi:10.1029/95JB01588 .

• Davies, D., Earthquake prediction in China, Nature, 1975-11-27, 258 (5533): 286–287, Bibcode:1975Natur.258..286D, doi:10.1038/258286a0 .

• Drakopoulos, J.; Stavrakakis, G.N.; Latoussakis, J., Evaluation and interpretation of thirteen official van—telegrams for the period September 10, 1986 to April 28, 1988., Tectonophysics, 1993-08-30, 224 (1–3): 223–236, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(93)90075-U .

• Dollar, John, The man who predicted an earthquake, The Guardian, 2010-04-05 [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档于2018-01-30） .
• Enriquez, Alberto, Earthquake-prediction technology deserves to be taken seriously (OPINION), OregonLive.com, 2015 [2016-11-19], （原始内容存档于2016-04-17） .
• Evans, R., Assessment of schemes for earthquake prediction: Editor's introduction, Geophysical Journal International, December 1997, 131 (3): 413–420 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..413E, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06585.x, （原始内容存档于2017-12-12） .

• Evison, Frank, On the existence of earthquake precursors (PDF), Annali di Geofisica, October 1999, 42 (5): 763–770 [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2019-05-17） .

• Fraser-Smith, A. C.; Bernardi, A.; McGill, P. R.; Ladd, M. E.; Helliwell, R. A.; Villard Jr., O. G., Low-Frequency Magnetic Field Measurements Near the Epicenter of the Ms 7.1 Loma Prieta Earthquake, Geophysical Research Letters, August 1990, 17 (9): 1465–1468, Bibcode:1990GeoRL..17.1465F, doi:10.1029/GL017i009p01465 .
• Freund, Friedemann, Time-resolved study of charge generation and propagation in igneous rocks, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2000-05-10, 105 (B5): 11001–11019 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:2000JGR...10511001F, ISSN 2156-2202, doi:10.1029/1999JB900423, （原始内容存档于2017-12-12） （英语） .
• Garwin, Laura, A successful prediction?, Nature, 1989-10-26, 341 (6244): 677, Bibcode:1989Natur.341..677G, doi:10.1038/341677a0 .

• Geller, Robert J., Unpredictable earthquakes [response to Hamada], Nature, 1991-10-17, 353 (6345): 612, Bibcode:1991Natur.353..612G, doi:10.1038/353612a0 .

• Geller, R. J., Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals, Lighthill, J. (编), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific: 155–238, 1996a 

• Geller, R. J., Debate on evaluation of the VAN method: Editor's introduction, Geophysical Research Letters, 27 May 1996b, 23 (11): 1291–1293 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1291G, doi:10.1029/96GL00742, （原始内容存档于2017-12-12） .

• Geller, Robert J., Earthquake prediction: a critical review. (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, December 1997, 131 (3): 425–450, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..425G, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x 

• Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco, Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted (PDF), Science, 1997-03-14, 275 (5306): 1616 [2018-02-20], doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616, （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2019-05-12） .

• Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco; Stiros, Stathis, Letter (PDF), Physics Today, June 1998: 95–96 [2018-02-20], （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2016-12-20） .

• Gersony, Robert (编), Selected Available Documentation: The Brady Earthquake Predictions (PDF), The Lima Disaster Preparedness Report XIII–B, 1982b [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2017-03-01） .

• Giesecke, Albert A., Case history of the Peru prediction for 1980–1981 (PDF), Proceedings of the Seminar on Earthquake Prediction Case Histories, Geneva, 12–15 October 1982: UNDPRO: 51–74, 1983 [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2013-04-26） .

• Gruszow, S.; Rossignol, J. C.; Tzanis, A.; Le Mouël, J. L., Identification and analysis of electromagnetic signals in Greece: the case of the Kozani earthquake VAN prediction (PDF), Geophysical Research Letters, 1996-08-01, 23 (16): 2025–2028 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.2025G, doi:10.1029/96GL02170, （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2017-12-12） .

• Hall, Stephen S., At Fault? (PDF), Nature, 2011-09-15, 477 (7364): 264–269 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:2011Natur.477..264H, PMID 21921895, doi:10.1038/477264a, （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2016-08-25） .

• Hamada, K., Unpredictable earthquakes, Nature, 1991-10-17, 353 (6345): 611–612, Bibcode:1991Natur.353..611H, doi:10.1038/353611c0 .

• Hamada, Kazuo, Statistical evaluation of the SES predictions issued in Greece: alarm and success rates, Tectonophysics, 1993-08-30, 224 (1–3): 203–210, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(93)90073-S .

• Hamada, Kazuo, Re-examination of statistical evaluation of the SES prediction in Greece, Sir James Lighthill (编), A Critical Review of VAN – Earthquake Prediction from Seismic Electrical Signals, London, UK: World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd.: 286–291, 1996 [2018-02-20], ISBN 978-9810226701, （原始内容存档于2012-05-19） .

• Hamilton, Robert M., The Status of Earthquake Prediction, U.S. Geological Survey, 1976,, Circular 729: 6–9 [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档于2017-12-12） .

• Hammond, Allen L., Earthquake predictions: Breakthrough in theoretical insight? (PDF), Science, 1973-05-23, 180 (4088): 851–853, Bibcode:1973Sci...180..851H, PMID 17789254, doi:10.1126/science.180.4088.851 .

• Hammond, Allen L., Dilatancy: Growing Acceptance as an Earthquake Mechanism (PDF), Science, 1974-05-03, 184 (4136): 551–552, Bibcode:1974Sci...184..551H, PMID 17755025, doi:10.1126/science.184.4136.551 .

• Hammond, Allen L., Earthquake Prediction: Progress in California, Hesitation in Washington (PDF), Science, 1975-02-07, 187 (4175): 419–420, Bibcode:1975Sci...187..419H, PMID 17835300, doi:10.1126/science.187.4175.419 .

• Hammond, Allen L., Earthquakes: An evacuation in China, a warning in California, Science, 1976-05-07, 192 (4239): 538–539, Bibcode:1976Sci...192..538H, PMID 17745640, doi:10.1126/science.192.4239.538 .

• Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Felzer, Karen R.; Michael, Andrew J., Improved tests reveal that the accelerating moment release hypothesis is statistically insignificant (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, August 2008, 113 (B08130): 8310 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:2008JGRB..113.8310H, doi:10.1029/2007JB005410, （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2017-06-10） .

• Harris, Ruth A., The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989—Forecasts (PDF), Open-File Report 1550-B, U.S. Geological Survey, 1998 [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2017-02-27） .

• Harris, Ruth A.; Arrowsmith, J Ramon, Introduction to the Special Issue on the 2004 Parkfield Earthquake and the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, September 2006, 96 (4B): S1–S5, Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S...1H, doi:10.1785/0120050831 .

• Hayakawa, Masashi, Fundamentals of earthquake prediction, Singapore: John Wiley & Sons, 2015, ISBN 9781118770375 .
• Heraud, J. A.; Centa, V. A.; Bleier, T., Electromagnetic Precursors Leading to Triangulation of Future Earthquakes and Imaging of the Subduction Zone, AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, 2015-12-01, 32 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:2015AGUFMNH32B..03H, （原始内容存档于2017-06-23） .
• Hough, Susan Elizabeth; Langer, James S., Richter's Scale: Measure of an Earthquake, Measure of a Man, Physics Today (Princeton University Press), 2007, 61: 60–62, Bibcode:2008PhT....61a..60H, ISBN 978-0-691-12807-8, doi:10.1063/1.2835157 .

• Hough, Susan Elizabeth, A seismological retrospective of the Brady-Spence prediction (PDF), Seismological Research Letters, Jan–Feb 2010, 81 (1): 113–117 [2018-02-20], doi:10.1785/gssrl.81.1.113, （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2016-12-25） .

• Hough, Susan, Predicting the Unpredictable: The Tumultuous Science of Earthquake Prediction, Princeton University Press, 2010b, ISBN 978-0-691-13816-9 .

• Huang, Qinghua, Forecasting the epicenter of a future major earthquake, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2015-01-27, 112 (4): 944–945 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:2015PNAS..112..944H, ISSN 0027-8424, PMC 4313830 , PMID 25583499, doi:10.1073/pnas.1423684112, （原始内容存档于2018-05-26） （英语） .

• Immè, Giuseppina; Morelli, Daniela, Radon as Earthquake Precursor (PDF), D'Amico (编), Earthquake Research and Analysis, 2012 [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2017-08-09） .

• International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection, Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization – Executive Summary (PDF), 2009-10-02 [2018-02-20], （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2013-03-09） .

• International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection, Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization, Annals of Geophysics, 2011-05-30, 54 (4): 315–391 [2018-02-20], doi:10.4401/ag-5350, （原始内容存档于2018-02-11） .

• Jackson, David D., Hypothesis testing and earthquake prediction (PDF), Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., April 1996a, 93 (9): 3772–3775 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:1996PNAS...93.3772J, PMC 39435 , PMID 11607663, doi:10.1073/pnas.93.9.3772, （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2015-11-23） .

• Jackson, David D., Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN method, Geophysical Research Letters, 27 May 1996b, 23 (11): 1363–1366, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1363J, doi:10.1029/96gl01439 .

• Jackson, David D., Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting, Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (编), The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics (PDF), Geophysical Monograph Series 150: 335–348, 2004, Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J, ISBN 0-87590-415-7, doi:10.1029/150GM26 .

• Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y., VAN method lacks validity (PDF), Eos, 1998-11-24, 79 (47): 573–579 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:1998EOSTr..79..573J, doi:10.1029/98EO00418, （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2016-12-20） .

• Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y., The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, September 2006, 96 (4B): S397–S409 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J, doi:10.1785/0120050821, （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2014-03-23） .

• Johnston, M.J.S., Electromagnetic Fields Generated by Earthquakes, Lee, William H.K.; Kanamori, Hiroo; Jennings, Paul C.; Kisslinger, Carl (编), International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology 81A: 621–635, 2002, ISBN 0-12-440652-1 

• Johnston, M. J. S.; Sasai, Y.; Egbert, G. D.; Mueller, R. J., Seismomagnetic Effects from the Long-Awaited 28 September 2004 M 6.0 Parkf1eld Earthquake (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, September 2006, 96 (4B): S206–S220 [2018-02-20], doi:10.1785/0120050810, （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2015-09-15） .

• Jolliffe, Ian T.; Stephenson, David B. (编), Forecast Verification: A Practitioner’s Guide in Atmospheric Science 1st, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., 2003, ISBN 0-471-49759-2 .

• Jones, Lucille M., Foreshocks and time-dependent earthquake hazard assessment in southern California, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, December 1985, 75 (6): 1669–1679 .

• Jordan, Thomas H.; Jones, Lucile M., Operational Earthquake Forecasting: Some thoughts on why and how (PDF), Seismological Research Letters, July–August 2010, 81 (4): 571–574 [2018-02-20], doi:10.1785/gssrl.81.4.571, （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2016-03-04） .

• Kagan, Y. Y., VAN earthquake predictions — an attempt at statistical evaluation (PDF), Geophysical Research Letters, 1996-05-27, 23 (11): 1315–1318 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1315K, doi:10.1029/95gl03417, （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2016-12-20） 

• Kagan, Yan Y., Statistical aspects of Parkfield earthquake sequence and Parkfield prediction experiment (PDF), Tectonophysics, 1997-03-15, 270 (3–4): 207–219, Bibcode:1997Tectp.270..207K, doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(96)00210-7 .

• Kagan, Yan Y., Are earthquakes predictable? (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, December 1997b, 131 (3): 505–525 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x, （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2016-03-03） .

• Kagan, Yan Y., Is Earthquake Seismology a Hard, Quantitative Science? (PDF), Pure and Applied Geophysics, August 1999, 155 (2–4): 233–258 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:1999PApGe.155..233K, doi:10.1007/s000240050264, （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2017-08-08） .

• Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D., Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 1991-12-10, 96 (B13): 21,419–21,431 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210, （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2016-03-04） .

• Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D., Statistical tests of VAN earthquake predictions: comments and reflections (PDF), Geophysical Research Letters, 1996-05-27, 23 (11): 1433–1436, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1433K, doi:10.1029/95GL03786 .

• Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David d.; Geller, Robert J., Characteristic earthquake model, 1884 – 2011, R.I.P, Seismological Research Letters, November–December 2012, 83 (6): 951–953, Bibcode:2012arXiv1207.4836K, arXiv:1207.4836 , doi:10.1785/0220120107 .

• Kagan, Yan Y.; Knopoff, Leon, Statistical Short-Term Earthquake Prediction (PDF), Science, 1987-06-19, 236 (4808): 1563–1567 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:1987Sci...236.1563K, PMID 17835741, doi:10.1126/science.236.4808.1563, （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2015-09-24） .

• Kanamori, Hiroo, Earthquake Prediction: An Overview, International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, International Geophysics, 2003, 616: 1205–1216, ISBN 0-12-440658-0, doi:10.1016/s0074-6142(03)80186-9 .

• Kanamori, Hiroo; Stewart, Gordon S., Seismological Aspects of the Guatemala Earthquake of February 4, 1976 (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 1978-07-10, 83 (B7): 3427–3434 [2018年2月20日], Bibcode:1978JGR....83.3427K, doi:10.1029/JB083iB07p03427, （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2013年4月27日） .

• Kappler, K. N.; Morrison, H. Frank; Egbert, G. D., Long((en))term monitoring of ULF electromagnetic fields at Parkfield, California (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, April 2010, 115 (B4) [2018-02-20], Bibcode:2010JGRB..115.4406K, doi:10.1029/2009JB006421, （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2016-12-22） .

• Kerr, Richard A., Earthquakes: Prediction Proving Elusive (PDF), Science, 1978-04-28, 200 (4340): 419–421, Bibcode:1978Sci...200..419K, PMID 17757294, doi:10.1126/science.200.4340.419 .

• Kerr, Richard A., Prospects for Earthquake Prediction Wane (PDF), Science, 1979-11-02, 206 (4418): 542–544, Bibcode:1979Sci...206..542K, PMID 17759414, doi:10.1126/science.206.4418.542 .

• Kerr, Richard A., Prediction of huge Peruvian quakes quashed (PDF), Science, 1981-02-20, 211 (4484): 808–809, Bibcode:1981Sci...211..808K, PMID 17740381, doi:10.1126/science.211.4484.808 .

• Kerr, Richard A., Palmdale Bulge Doubts Now Taken Seriously (PDF), Science, 18 December 1981c, 214 (4527): 1331–33, Bibcode:1981Sci...214.1331K, PMID 17812251, doi:10.1126/science.214.4527.1331 .

• Kerr, Richard A., Stalking the Next Parkfield Earthquake (PDF), Science, 1984-01-06, 223 (4631): 36–38, Bibcode:1984Sci...223...36K, PMID 17752978, doi:10.1126/science.223.4631.36 .

• Kerr, Richard A., Reading the Future in Loma Prieta (PDF), Science, 1989-10-27, 246 (4929): 436–439, Bibcode:1989Sci...246..436K, PMID 17788681, doi:10.1126/science.246.4929.436 .

• Kerr, Richard A., Parkfield Keeps Secrets After A Long-Awaited Quake (PDF), Science, 2004-10-08, 306 (5694): 206–7 [2018-02-20], PMID 15472043, doi:10.1126/science.306.5694.206, （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2011-06-27） .

• Kerr, Richard A., After the Quake, in Search of the Science—or Even a Good Prediction (PDF), Science, 2009-04-17, 324 (5925): 322, Bibcode:2009Sci...324..322K, doi:10.1126/science.324.5925.322 .

• Lighthill, Sir James (编), A Critical Review of VAN – Earthquake Prediction from Seismic Electrical Signals, London: World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd., 1996 [2018-02-20], ISBN 978-981-02-2670-1, （原始内容存档于2012-05-19） .

• Lighton, John R.B.; Duncan, Frances D., Shaken, not stirred: a serendipitous study of ants and earthquakes (PDF), Journal of Experimental Biology, 2005-08-15, 208 (16): 3103–3107, doi:10.1242/jeb.01735 .

• Lindberg, Robert G.; Skiles, Durward; Hayden, Page, Can animals predict earthquakes? A search for correlations between changes in activity patterns of two fossorial rodents and subsequent seismic events (PDF), U.S. Geological Survey, 1981,, Open-File Report 81-385 [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2017-05-02） .

• Lindh, A.G.; Lockner, D.A.; Lee, W.H.K., Velocity anomalies: An alternative explanation (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, June 1978, 68 (3): 721–734 [2018-02-20], （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2013-02-24） .

• Lomnitz, Cinna, Fundamentals of earthquake prediction, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1994, ISBN 0-471-57419-8, OCLC 647404423 .

• Lomnitz, Cinna; Nava, F. Alejandro, The predictive value of seismic gaps., Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, December 1983, 73 (6A): 1815–1824 .

• Lott, Dale F.; Hart, Benjamin L.; Verosub, Kenneth L.; Howell, Mary W., Is Unusual Animal Behavior Observed Before Earthquakes? Yes and No, Geophysical Research Letters, September 1979, 6 (9): 685–687, Bibcode:1979GeoRL...6..685L, doi:10.1029/GL006i009p00685 .

• Lott, Dale F.; Hart, Benjamin L.; Howell, Mary W., Retrospective Studies of Unusual Animal Behavior as an Earthquake Predictor, Geophysical Research Letters, December 1981, 8 (12): 1203–1206, Bibcode:1981GeoRL...8.1203L, doi:10.1029/GL008i012p01203 .

• Ludwin, Ruth, Earthquake Prediction (PDF), Washington Geology, May 2001, 28 (3): 27–28 [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2017-12-12） .

• Luen, Brad; Stark, Philip B., Testing earthquake predictions, Institute of Mathematical Statistics collections: Probability and Statistics: Essays in Honor of David A. Freedman 2: 302–315, 2008, Bibcode:2008pseh.book..302L, ISBN 978-0-94060074-4, arXiv:0805.3032  .

• Mabey, Matthew A., The Charlatan Game (PDF), Washington Geology, May 2001, 28 (3): 27–28 [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2017-12-12） . Also at USGS（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）.

• Main, Ian [moderator], Is the reliable prediction of individual earthquakes a realistic scientific goal?, Nature, February 1999 [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档于2001-05-08） .

• Main, Ian G.; Bell, Andrew F.; Meredith, Philip G.; Geiger, Sebastian; Touati, Sarah, The dilatancy–diffusion hypothesis and earthquake predictability, Geological Society of London Special Publications, August 2012, 367: 215–230 [2018-02-20], doi:10.1144/SP367.15, （原始内容存档于2019-05-16） .

• Mason, Ian, Binary Events, 2003 . Chap. 3 in Jolliffe & Stephenson 2003.

• Matthews, Robert A. J., Decision-theoretic limits on earthquake prediction, Geophysical Journal International, December 1997, 131 (3): 526–529, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..526M, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06596.x .

• McCann, W. R.; Nishenko, S. P.; Sykes, L. R.; Krause, J., Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: Seismic potential for major boundaries, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 1979, 117 (6): 1082–1147, Bibcode:1979PApGe.117.1082M, doi:10.1007/BF00876211 .

• McEvilly, T.V.; Johnson, L.R., Stability of P an S velocities from Central California quarry blasts, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, April 1974, 64 (2): 343–353 .

• McIntyre, Jamie, When Outrage Trumps Science: Italian quake prediction produces tabloid tremors, American Journalism Review, April–May 2009 [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档于2013-06-02） .

• McNally, Karen, Trapping an Earthquake (PDF), Engineering & Science, November–December 1979: 7–12 [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2013-04-27） .

• Mignan, Arnaud, Retrospective on the Accelerating Seismic Release (ASR) hypothesis: controversy and new horizons, Tectonophysics, June 2011, 505 (1–4): 1–16, Bibcode:2011Tectp.505....1M, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.03.010 .

• Mignan, Arnaud, The debate on the prognostic value of earthquake foreshocks: A meta-analysis, Scientific Reports, 2013-02-14, 4: 4099, Bibcode:2014NatSR...4E4099M, PMC 3924212 , PMID 24526224, doi:10.1038/srep04099 .

• Mileti, Dennis; Sorensen, John, Communication of Emergency Public Warnings, National Technical Information Service, 1990 [2016-09-20] .

• Miller, Sunlen; Patrick, Maggy; Capatides, Christina, Sixth Sense? Zoo Animals Sensed Quake Early, ABC News, 2011-08-24 [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档于2022-04-21） .

• Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo, Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of 'VAN' earthquake precursors (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 1992, 111: 32–44 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:1992GeoJI.111...32M, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00552.x, （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2016-03-04） .

• Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo, Precursor candidacy and validation: The VAN case so far (PDF), Geophysical Research Letters, 27 May 1996a, 23 (11): 1323–1326 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1323M, doi:10.1029/95GL03456, （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2016-03-04） .

• Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo, VAN: Candidacy and validation with the latest laws of the game (PDF), Geophysical Research Letters, 27 May 1996b, 23 (11): 1327–1330 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1327M, doi:10.1029/95gl03455, （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2016-12-20） .

• Ohshansky, R.B.; Geller, R.J>, Earthquake prediction and public policy, Mulargia, Francesgo; Geller, Robert J. (编), Earthquake Science and Seismic Risk Reduction., NATO Science Series, IV Earth and Environmental Sciences, 32, Kluwer: 284–329, 2003 [2018-02-20], ISBN 978-94-010-0041-3, doi:10.1007/978-94-010-0041-3_8, （原始内容存档于2017-12-12） .

• Otis, Leon; Kautz, William, Biological premonitions of earthquakes: a validation study, U.S. Geological Survey, 1979,, Open-File Report 80-453: 225–226 .

• Panel on Earthquake Prediction of the Committee on Seismology [C.R Allen, chairman], Predicting Earthquakes: A Scientific and Technical Evaluation – with Implications for Society, Washington, D.C.: National Academy Sciences, July 1976 .

• Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A., Comment on "The Prediction of Two Large Earthquakes in Greece" (PDF), Eos, 2010-05-04, 91 (18): 162, Bibcode:2010EOSTr..91..162P, doi:10.1029/2010EO180003 .

• Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A., Communicating to the General Public Earthquake Prediction Information: Lessons Learned in Greece, Chap. 19, Wyss, Max; Peppoloni, Silvia (编), Geoethics: Ethical Challenges and Case Studies in Earth Sciences (PDF): 223–242, 2015, ISBN 978-0-12-799935-7 .

• Park, S., Precursors to earthquakes: seismoelectromagnetic signals (PDF), Surveys in Geophysics, July 1996, 17 (4): 493–516 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:1996SGeo...17..493P, doi:10.1007/BF01901642, （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2014-04-29） .

• Park, Stephen K.; Dalrymple, William; Larsen, Jimmy C., The 2004 Parkfield earthquake: Test of the electromagnetic precursor hypothesis, Journal of Geophysical Research, 2007, 112, Bibcode:2007JGRB..112.5302P, doi:10.1029/2005JB004196 .

• Pham, V. N.; Boyer, D.; Chouliaras, G.; Le Mouël, J. L.; Rossignol, J. C.; Stavrakakis, G. N., Characteristics of electromagnetic noise in the Ioannina region (Greece); a possible origin for so called "Seismic Electric Signals" (SES) (PDF), Geophysical Research Letters, 1998-06-15, 25 (12): 2229–2232, Bibcode:1998GeoRL..25.2229P, doi:10.1029/98gl01593 .

• Pham, V. N.; Boyer, D.; Chouliaras, G.; Savvaidis, A.; Stavrakakis, G. N.; Le Mouël, J. L., Sources of anomalous transient electric signals (ATESs) in the ULF band in the Lamia region (central Greece): electrochemical mechanisms for their generation, Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 2002, 130: 209–233, doi:10.1016/s0031-9201(02)00008-0 .

• Pham, V. N.; Boyer, D.; Le Mouël, J. L.; Chouliaras, G.; Stavrakakis, G. N., Electromagnetic signals generated in the solid Earth by digital transmission of radio-waves as a plausible source for some so-called 'seismic electric signals' (PDF), Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 1999, 114: 141–163, doi:10.1016/s0031-9201(99)00050-3 .

• Reid, Harry Fielding, The Mechanics of the Earthquake., The California Earthquake of April 18, 1906: Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission Vol. 2, 1910, Vol. 2 .

• Rhoades, D.A.; Evison, F.F., The VAN earthquake predictions, Geophysical Research Letters, 1996-05-27, 23 (11): 1371–1373, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1371R, doi:10.1029/95GL02792 .

• Rikitake, Tsuneji, Classification of earthquake precursors, Tectonophysics, 1979-05-01, 54 (3–4): 293–309, Bibcode:1979Tectp..54..293R, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(79)90372-X .

• Rikitake, Tsuneji, Earthquake Forecasting and Warning, Tokyo: Center for Academic Publications, 1982 .

• Roberts, J.L., Notes on procedure for conveying earthquake forecasts with special reference to the Peru predictions for 1980–1981 (PDF), Proceedings of the Seminar on Earthquake Prediction Case Histories, Geneva, 12–15 October 1982: UNDPRO, 1983 [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2016-03-04） .

• Roeloffs, Evelyn; Langbein, John, The earthquake prediction experiment at Parkfield California, Review of Geophysics, August 1994, 32 (3): 315–336, Bibcode:1994RvGeo..32..315R, doi:10.1029/94RG01114 .

• Rong, Yufang; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y., Seismic gaps and earthquakes (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, October 2003, 108 (B10): 1–14 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:2003JGRB..108.2471R, doi:10.1029/2002JB002334, （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2016-12-30） .

• Rundle, John B.; Holliday, James R.; Graves, William R.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Tiampo, Kristy F.; Klein, William, Probabilities for large events in driven threshold systems, Physical Review E, 2012, 86 (2): 021106, doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.86.021106 .

• Saegusa, A., China clamps down on inaccurate warnings, Nature, 1999-01-28, 397 (6717): 284, Bibcode:1999Natur.397..284W, doi:10.1038/16756 .

• Sarlis, N.; Lazaridou, M.; Kapiris, P.; Varotsos, P., Numerical model of the selectivity effect and the ΔV/L criterion, Geophysical Research Letters, 1999-11-01, 26 (21): 3245–3248 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:1999GeoRL..26.3245S, ISSN 1944-8007, doi:10.1029/1998GL005265, （原始内容存档于2017-12-13） （英语） .

• Sarlis, N. V.; Skordas, E. S.; Christopoulos, S.-R. G.; Varotsos, P. A., Statistical Significance of Minimum of the Order Parameter Fluctuations of Seismicity Before Major Earthquakes in Japan, Pure and Applied Geophysics, January 2016, 173 (1): 165–172 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:2016PApGe.173..165S, ISSN 0033-4553, doi:10.1007/s00024-014-0930-8, （原始内容存档于2017-12-12） （英语） .

• Schaal, Rand B., An evaluation of the animal-behavior theory for earthquake predictions (PDF), California Geology, February 1988, 41 (2): 41–45 .

• Scholz, Christopher H., The Mechanics of earthquakes and faulting, 2nd, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2002, ISBN 0-521-65223-5 .

• Scholz, Christopher H.; Sykes, Lynn R.; Aggarwal, Yah P., Earthquake Prediction: A Physical Basis (PDF), Science, 1973-08-31, 181 (4102): 803–810, Bibcode:1973Sci...181..803S, PMID 17816227, doi:10.1126/science.181.4102.803 .

• Schwartz, David P.; Coppersmith, Kevin J., Fault Behavior and Characteristic Earthquakes: Examples From the Wasatch and San Andreas Fault Zones, Journal of Geophysical Research, 1984-07-10, 89 (B7): 5681–5698, Bibcode:1984JGR....89.5681S, doi:10.1029/JB089iB07p05681 .

• Shnirman, M.; Schreider, S.; Dmitrieva, O., Statistical evaluation of the VAN predictions issued during the period 1987–1989. (PDF), Tectonophysics, 1993, 224 (1–3): 211–221 [2016-07-05], doi:10.1016/0040-1951(93)90074-t, （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2016-09-19） .

• Sibson, R. H., Earthquakes and Lineament Infrastructure (PDF), Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 1986, 317: 63–79, Bibcode:1986RSPTA.317...63S, doi:10.1098/rsta.1986.0025 .

• Spence, William; Herrmann, Robert B.; Johnston, Arch C.; Reagor, Glen, Responses to Iben Browning's Prediction of a 1990 New Madrid, Missouri, Earthquake (PDF), U.S. Geological Survey, 1993,, Circular 1083 [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2018-11-08） .

• Squires, Nick; Rayne, Gordon, Italian earthquake: expert's warnings were dismissed as scaremongering, The Telegraph, 2009-04-06 [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档于2017-12-25） .

• Stark, Philip B., Earthquake prediction: the null hypothesis, Geophysical Journal International, 1997, 131 (3): 495–499, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..495S, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06593.x .

• Stavrakakis, George N.; Drakopoulos, John, The VAN method: Contradictory and misleading results since 1981, Geophysical Research Letters, 1996-05-27, 23 (11): 1347–1350, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1347S, doi:10.1029/95gl03546 .

• Stein, Seth; Friedrich, Anke; Newman, Andrew, Dependence of possible characteristic earthquakes on spatial sampling: illustration for the Wasatch seismic zone, Utah (PDF), Seismological Research Letters, July–August 2005, 76 (4): 432–436 [2018-02-20], doi:10.1785/gssrl.76.4.432, （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2013-01-19） .

• Stein, Seth; Newman, Andrew, Characteristic and uncharacteristic earthquakes as possible artifacts: application to the New Madrid and Wabash seismic zones (PDF), Seismological Research Letters, March–April 2004, 75 (2): 173–187 [2018-02-20], doi:10.1785/gssrl.75.2.173, （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2013-01-19） .

• Stiros, Stathis C., Costs and benefits of earthquake prediction studies in Greece (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, December 1997, 131: 478–484, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246x.1997.tb06591.x .

• Sykes, Lynn R.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Scholz, Christopher H., Rethinking Earthquake Prediction (PDF), Pure and Applied Geophysics, 1999, 155 (2–4): 207–232 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:1999PApGe.155..207S, doi:10.1007/s000240050263, （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2013-06-03） .

• Thomas, J. N.; Love, J. J.; Johnston, M. J. S., On the reported magnetic precursor of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 2009, 173 (3–4): 207–215, Bibcode:2009PEPI..173..207T, doi:10.1016/j.pepi.2008.11.014 .

• Thomas, Lee M., Economic impacts of earthquake prediction (PDF), Proceedings of the Seminar on Earthquake Prediction Case Histories, Geneva, 12–15 October 1982: UNDPRO: 179–185, 1983 [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2013-04-26） .

• Tiampo, Kristy F.; Shcherbakov, Robert, Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques: Ten years of progress (PDF), Tectonophysics, 2012,, 522—523: 89–121 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:2012Tectp.522...89T, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.08.019, （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2016-05-16） .

• Tierney, Kathleen J., Making sense of collective preoccupations: lessons from research on the Iben Browning earthquake prediction. (PDF), Platt, Gerald M.; Gordon, Chad (编), Self, Collective Behavior, and Society: Essays Honoring the Contributions of Ralph H. Turner, JAI Press, 1993, ISBN 978-155938755-2 .

• Turner, Ralph H., Reflections on the Past and Future of Social Research on Earthquake Warnings, International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, November 1993, 11 (3): :454–468 [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档于2016-03-17） .

• U.S. Geological Survey, Earth Prediction — Opportunity to Avert Disaster; A conference on earthquake warning and response held in San Francisco, California, on November 7, 1975. (PDF), U.S. Geological Survey, 1976,, Circular 729: 6–9 [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2017-03-03） . (Sometimes attributed to McKelvey, who wrote the Forward.)

• U.S. Geological Survey Staff, The Loma Prieta, California, earthquake: an anticipated event (PDF), Science, 1990-01-19, 247 (4940): 286–293, Bibcode:1990Sci...247..286G, PMID 17735847, doi:10.1126/science.247.4940.286 .

• Uyeda, Seiya; Nagao, Toshiyasu; Kamogawa, Masashi, Short-term earthquake prediction: Current status of seismo-electromagnetics, Tectonophysics, 2009-05-29, 470 (3–4): 205–213, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2008.07.019 .

• Uyeda, Seiya; Kamogawa, Masashi, The Prediction of Two Large Earthquakes in Greece, Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 2008-09-23, 89 (39): 363–363 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:2008EOSTr..89..363U, ISSN 2324-9250, doi:10.1029/2008EO390002, （原始内容存档于2017-12-12） （英语） .

• Uyeda, S., Introduction to the VAN method of earthquake prediction, Sir James Lighthill (编), A Critical Review of VAN – Earthquake Prediction from Seismic Electrical Signals, London, UK: World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd., 1996, ISBN 978-981-02-2670-1 .

• Uyeda, Seiya, VAN Method of Short-term Earthquake Prediction Shows Promise, Eos, 1998-11-24, 79 (47): 573, 580 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:1998EOSTr..79..573U, doi:10.1029/98EO00417, （原始内容存档于2017-12-13） .

• Uyeda, Seiya, In Defense of VAN's Earthquake Predictions (PDF), Forum, Eos, 2000-01-04, 81 (1): 3, 6, Bibcode:2000EOSTr..81....3U, doi:10.1029/00EO00005 .

• Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K.; Nomicos, K., Seven-hour precursors to earthquakes determined from telluric currents, Praktika of the Academy of Athens, 1981, 56: 417–433 .

• Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K., Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes, I, Tectonophysics, December 1984a, 110 (1): 73–98, Bibcode:1984Tectp.110...73V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(84)90059-3 .

• Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K., Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes. II. determination of epicenter and magnitude, Tectonophysics, December 1984b, 110 (1): 99–125 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:1984Tectp.110...99V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(84)90060-X, （原始内容存档于2012-02-09） .

• Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K.; Lazaridou, M., Latest aspects of earthquake prediction in Greece based on seismic electric signals, II, Tectonophysics, August 1993, 224 (1): 1–37, Bibcode:1993Tectp.224....1V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(93)90055-O .

• Varotsos, P.; Eftaxias, K.; Lazaridou, M., Reply I to "VAN: Candidacy and validation with the latest laws of the game" and "Precursor candidacy and validation: The VAN Case so far", Geophysical Research Letters, 1996-05-27, 23 (11): 1331–1334 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1331V, ISSN 1944-8007, doi:10.1029/96GL01436, （原始内容存档于2017-12-12） .

• Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M., Latest aspects of earthquake prediction in Greece based on seismic electric signals, Tectonophysics, 1991, 188 (3–4): 321–347, Bibcode:1991Tectp.188..321V, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(91)90462-2 .

• Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M.; Eftaxias, K.; Antonopoulos, G.; Makris, J.; Kopanas, J., Short-term earthquake prediction in Greece by seismic electric signals, Lighthill, J. (编), A Critical Review of VAN, World Scientific: 29–76, 1996a .

• Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M., Reply to "The VAN earthquake predictions," by D. A. Rhoades and F. F. Evison, Geophysical Research Letters, 27 May 1996b, 23 (11): 1375–1378 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1375V, ISSN 1944-8007, doi:10.1029/96GL00910, （原始内容存档于2017-12-13） .

• Varotsos, P.; Lazaridou, M.; Hadjicontis, V., Reply to "Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN Method", Geophysical Research Letters, 1996-05-27, 23 (11): 1367–1370 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1367V, ISSN 1944-8007, doi:10.1029/96GL00916, （原始内容存档于2017-12-12） （英语） .

• Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K.; Nomicos, K.; Lazaridou, M., Earthquake prediction and electric signals, Nature, 1986, 322 (6075): 120, Bibcode:1986Natur.322..120V, doi:10.1038/322120a0 .

• Varotsos, P.; Alexopoulos, K.; Nomicos, K.; Lazaridou, M., Official earthquake prediction procedure in Greece, Tectonophysics, 1988-09-20, 152 (3–4): 93–196, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(88)90045-5 .

• Varotsos, P.; Sarlis, N.; Lazaridou, M.; Kapiris, P., Transmission of stress induced electric signals, Journal of Applied Physics, 1998, 83: 60–70, Bibcode:1998JAP....83...60V, doi:10.1063/1.366702 .

• Varotsos, P.; Sarlis, N.; Skordas, E., Natural time analysis : the new view of time ; Precursory seismic electric signals, earthquakes and other complex time series, Springer Praxis, 2011, ISBN 364216448-X .

• Vidale, John E., Do Big and Little Earthquakes Start Differently? (PDF), Science, 1996-02-16, 271 (5251): 953–954, Bibcode:1996Sci...271..953V, doi:10.1126/science.271.5251.953 .

• Wade, Nicholas, Briefing: More Flowers, less Cabbage (PDF), Science, 1977-10-14, 198 (4313): 176–177, Bibcode:1977Sci...198..176W, PMID 17755352, doi:10.1126/science.198.4313.176-a .

• Wang, Kelin; Chen, Qi-Fu; Sun, Shihong; Wang, Andong, Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, June 2006, 96 (3): 757–795 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96..757W, doi:10.1785/0120050191, （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2017-08-09） .

• Ward, Peter L., Ch. 3: Earthquake prediction, Geophysical predictions (PDF), National Academy of Sciences, 1978 [2018-02-20], （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2017-12-12） .

• Wells, D. L.; Coppersmith, K. J., New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement. (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, August 1994, 84 (4): 974–1002 [2018-02-20], （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2019-01-03） .

• Whitcomb, J. H., An update of time-dependent vp/vs and ^Vp in an area of the Transverse Range of southern California [abstract] (PDF), Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 1977, 58 (5): 305 .

• Whitham, K.; Berry, M.J.; Heidebrecht, A.C.; Kanasewich, E.R.; Milne, W.G, Earthquake Prediction in China, Geoscience Canada, 1976, 3 (4): 96, 263–268 [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档于2013-01-19） .

• Wood, H. O.; Gutenberg, B., Earthquake prediction (PDF), Science, 1935-09-06, 82 (2123): 219–320, Bibcode:1935Sci....82..219W, doi:10.1126/science.82.2123.219 .

• Working Group [on the southern San Andreas fault], Short-Term Earthquake Hazard Assessment for the San Andreas Fault in Southern California (PDF), U.S. Geological Survey, 1991,, Open-File Report 91-32 [2018-02-20], （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2017-05-02） .

• Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities; Dawson; Felzer; Frankel; Gupta; Jordan; Parsons; Petersen; Stein; Weldon; Wills, The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF2) (PDF), U.S. Geological Survey, 2008,, Open-File Report 2007-1437 (4): 2053–2107 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:2009BuSSA..99.2053F, doi:10.1785/0120080049, （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2017-05-05） . Also published as California Geological Survey Special Report 203.

• Wyss, M., Introduction, Tectonophysics, 1991a, 193 (4): 253–254, Bibcode:1991Tectp.193..253W, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(91)90334-o .

• Wyss, M., Brief summary of some reasons why the VAN hypothesis for predicting earthquakes has to be rejected, A critical review of VAN, London: Lighthill, S. J. World Scientific: 250–266, 1996 .

• Wyss, M.; Allmann, L., Probability of chance correlations of earthquakes with prediction in areas of heterogeneous seismicity rate: the VAN case, Geophysical Research Letters, 1996, 22 (11): 1307–1310, Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1307W, doi:10.1029/95GL03548 .

• Wyss, Max; Booth, David C., The IASPEI procedure for the evaluation of earthquake precursors, Geophysical Journal International, 1997, 131 (3): 423–424, Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..423W, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06587.x .

• Yoshii, Hiroaki, Social impacts of earthquake prediction in Greece, Tectonophysics, 1993-08-30, 224 (1–3): 251–255, doi:10.1016/0040-1951(93)90077-W .

• Zechar, J. Douglas, Methods for Evaluating Earthquake Prediction [dissertation] (PDF), Univ. of Southern California, August 2008 [2018-02-20], （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2013-10-02） .

• Zechar, J. Douglas; Jordan, Thomas H., Testing alarm-based earthquake predictions (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, 2008, 172 (2): 715–724 [2018-02-20], Bibcode:2008GeoJI.172..715Z, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03676.x, （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2014-04-29） .

• Zechar, J. Douglas; Schorlemmer, Danijel; Liukis, Maria; Yu, John; Euchner, Fabian; Maechling, Philip J.; Jordan, Thomas H., The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability perspective on computational earthquake science (PDF), Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience, 2010, 22 (12): 1836–1847 [2018-02-20], doi:10.1002/cpe.1519, （原始内容 (PDF)存档于2014-04-29） .

• Ziv, A.; Cochard, A.; Schmittbuhl, J., Does Elastic Rebound Theory apply to Seismic Faults?, Carpinteri, Alberto; Lacidogna, Giuseppi (编), Selected Papers from the 11th International Conference on Fracture, Turin, Italy, March 20–25, 2005: 51–55, 2007, ISBN 978-0-415-44402-6  (eBook: 978-0-203-93611-5).

• Zoback, Mark D., Seismology [book review of Rikitake, Earthquake Forecasting and Warning] (PDF), Science, 1983-10-21, 222 (4621): 319, Bibcode:1983Sci...222..319R, doi:10.1126/science.222.4621.319 .

• Zoback, Mary Lou, The 1906 earthquake and a century of progress in understanding earthquakes and their hazards (PDF), GSA Today, April–May 2006, 16 (r/5): 4–11 [2018-02-20], doi:10.1130/GSAT01604.1, （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2018-06-02） .

外部連結

• 美國地質局對地震預測的觀點（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）
• 潮汐力與地震的相關研究：發表於1967（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）年與1968（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）年，然而 U.S. Geological Survey: Common Myths About Earthquakes一文的觀點與之相左。
• 唐山大地震背后的真相（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）
• 日本因预测地震仍有困难废除地震预知委员会（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）
• 《自然》文章称地震不可预测 或影响日本地震预报政策（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）

参见

• 海城大地震
• 地震预警系统
• 地震学