Incred
Incred
Incred
India
Bajaj Auto
ADD (no change)
Consensus ratings*: Buy 24 Hold 12 Sell 10 The excitement runs across divisions
Current price: Rs7,213
■ 3QFY24 EPS growth of 11% qoq and 36% yoy was 5% above our estimate,
Target price: Rs8,090
driven by sustained qoq EBITDA margin expansion.
Previous target: Rs5,775
Up/downside: 12.2% ■ Considering that all its divisions are on a strong growth path trajectory via
InCred Research / Consensus: 22.7% segmental tailwinds or product actions, we upgrade FY24F-26F PAT by 3-5%.
■ Bajaj Auto may consolidate in the near term but considering its successful
Reuters: BAJA.NS
transition to electric vehicles with least impact on profitability, we retain ADD.
Bloomberg: BJAUT IN
Market cap: US$24,569m Sustained EBITDA margin expansion is impressive
Rs2,042,533m
Bajaj Auto’s 3QFY24 EBITDA rose 36% yoy and 13% qoq to Rs24.1bn, as the EBITDA
Average daily turnover: US$33.3m
margin qoq expansion sustained to touch a high of 19.9%. The 5% EBITDA beat was
Rs2771.5m
driven by lower expenses across major heads. Management stated that lower precious
Current shares o/s: 279.0m
metal cost was the key reason for the lower raw material cost benefit. PAT rose 11% qoq
Free float: 45.0%
*Source: Bloomberg and 36% yoy to Rs20.3bn, 5% above our estimate. Management has announced a Rs40bn
stock buyback program at Rs10,000 per share, leading to 1.4% share capital reduction.
Key changes in this note
FY24F-26F sales upgrade by 1-3%. Management conference-call highlights
FY24F-26F EBITDA upgrade by 3-5%. Management gave guidance of a gradual recovery in the export volume, as Africa’s two-
FY24F-26F EPS upgrade by 6-9%. wheeler industry demand recovery is gradual. In the fast-recovering Latin America. In the
domestic market, plans to launch a slew of new bikes in the coming months. For Triumph
bike, management gave volume guidance of 10,000 per month soon, as exports have just
Price Close Relative to SENSEX (RHS) commenced to global markets. In select cities where large premium bikes are being sold,
8,000 188.0 management claimed a 20% market share there in the above 350cc bike segment. Electric
6,000 142.0 three-wheeler or E3W distribution to be doubled to 50 cities in the Mar 2024F quarter, as
4,000 96.0
the company claims a 50% market share in the cities where it was launched recently.
2,000 50.0
3
Vol m
Powered by
EQUITEC
Autos │ India
Bajaj Auto │ January 25, 2024
2
Autos │ India
Bajaj Auto │ January 25, 2024
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Nov-05
Dec-07
Dec-09
Dec-11
Dec-13
Dec-15
Dec-17
Dec-19
Dec-21
Dec-23
Apr-04
Apr-07
Aug-08
Apr-09
Aug-10
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Apr-13
Aug-14
Apr-15
Aug-16
Apr-17
Aug-18
Apr-19
Aug-20
Apr-21
Aug-22
Apr-23
Mar-05
Figure 3: Impressive Triumph bikes’ volume ramp-up while Harley X440 yet to catch
up
7,000
6,000 6,119
5,000 4,925
4,508
4,000
3,572
3,000
2,496
2,000 2,160 2,189
1,000
0 0 18
Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23
3
Autos │ India
Bajaj Auto │ January 25, 2024
14,00,000 25%
13,00,000 23%
12,00,000 21%
11,00,000 19%
10,00,000 17%
9,00,000 15%
8,00,000 13%
7,00,000 11%
6,00,000 9%
5,00,000 7%
4,00,000 5%
2QFY10
1QFY11
4QFY11
3QFY12
2QFY13
1QFY14
4QFY14
3QFY15
2QFY16
1QFY17
4QFY17
3QFY18
2QFY19
1QFY20
4QFY20
3QFY21
2QFY22
1QFY23
4QFY23
3QFY24
Sales Volume (Units) EBITDA Margin (%) (RHS)
SOURCE: INCRED RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS
Figure 5: Export volume on a gradual recovery path to enter the growth phase
units
3,00,000 100%
80%
2,50,000
60%
40%
2,00,000
20%
1,50,000 0%
-20%
1,00,000
-40%
-60%
50,000
-80%
0 -100%
Dec-18
Sep-19
Dec-19
Sep-20
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-19
Jun-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Two-Wheeler Exports Three-Wheeler Exports Exports Growth %
SOURCE: INCRED RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS
4
Autos │ India
Bajaj Auto │ January 25, 2024
14,000 16%
12,000 14%
12%
10,000
10%
8,000
8%
6,000
6%
4,000
4%
2,000 2%
0 0%
May-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
May-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Apr-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Apr-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
Jun-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Jun-23
Jul-22
Jul-23
Chetak Wholesales (units) Chetak Retails (units) Bajaj Chetak
5
Autos │ India
Bajaj Auto │ January 25, 2024
Figure 11: Forward P/E valuation near the mean level provides comfort
28
26
24
22
21.0x
20
18.8x
18
16
16.6x
14 14.3x
12
10
8
Jan/14
Jan/15
Jan/16
Jan/17
Jan/18
Jan/19
Jan/20
Jan/21
Jan/22
Jan/23
Jan/24
Jul/14
Jul/15
Jul/16
Jul/17
Jul/18
Jul/19
Jul/20
Jul/21
Jul/22
Jul/23
P/E 10-yr mean Mean -1SD Mean + 1SD Mean -2SD
6
Autos │ India
Bajaj Auto │ January 25, 2024
BY THE NUMBERS
3.00 20 20 0
1.00 10 10 -10
Apr-20 Apr-21 Apr-22 Apr-23 Apr-24 Apr-25 Apr-20 Apr-21 Apr-22 Apr-23 Apr-24 Apr-25
Rolling P/BV (x) (lhs) ROE (rhs) 12-mth Fwd Rolling FD Core P/E (x) (lhs)
Cash Flow
(Rs mn) Mar-22A Mar-23A Mar-24F Mar-25F Mar-26F
EBITDA 51,171 65,492 85,626 100,417 112,839
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital 5,232 136 2,016 (1,102) (5,149)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions (3,935) 9,752 (3,119) (2,900) (3,100)
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense (1,188) (582)
Other Operating Cashflow 4,203 (1,837)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received 12,006 11,419 13,166 14,102 15,354
Tax Paid (16,306) (18,548) (22,822) (26,524) (29,686)
Cashflow From Operations 51,182 67,668 73,031 83,992 90,257
Capex (4,991) (11,695) (2,856) (7,500) (8,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow (5,083) (19,335) (41,327) (6,000) (7,000)
Cash Flow From Investing (10,074) (31,030) (44,183) (13,500) (15,000)
Debt Raised/(repaid) 13 15 (42)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares (64) (40)
Shares Repurchased 40,000
Dividends Paid (40,512) (39,614) (47,430) (55,800) (66,960)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing (40,499) (39,664) (7,512) (55,800) (66,960)
Total Cash Generated 610 (3,026) 21,337 14,693 8,298
Free Cashflow To Equity 41,122 36,653 28,806 70,492 75,257
Free Cashflow To Firm 41,195 37,033 29,268 70,792 75,457
SOURCE: INCRED RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS
7
Autos │ India
Bajaj Auto │ January 25, 2024
BY THE NUMBERS…cont’d
Balance Sheet
(Rs mn) Mar-22A Mar-23A Mar-24F Mar-25F Mar-26F
Total Cash And Equivalents 231,587 214,227 237,563 255,256 267,553
Total Debtors 15,164 17,761 24,478 28,324 31,761
Inventories 12,305 13,979 14,687 18,411 23,820
Total Other Current Assets 28,571 19,467 25,000 29,500 33,000
Total Current Assets 287,627 265,433 301,728 331,490 356,134
Fixed Assets 19,108 23,835 27,135 30,635 34,135
Total Investments 12,484 17,864 20,864 23,864 26,864
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets 31,593 41,699 47,999 54,499 60,999
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors 36,332 40,739 50,180 56,648 60,345
Other Current Liabilities 9,388 9,918 12,000 13,200 13,200
Total Current Liabilities 45,720 50,656 62,180 69,848 73,545
Total Long-term Debt 1,228 1,242 1,200 1,200 1,200
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities 1,228 1,242 1,200 1,200 1,200
Total Provisions 5,584 5,120 5,452 5,852 6,252
Total Liabilities 52,531 57,018 68,831 76,899 80,996
Shareholders Equity 266,688 254,259 280,896 309,090 336,137
Minority Interests
Total Equity 266,688 254,259 280,896 309,090 336,137
Key Ratios
Mar-22A Mar-23A Mar-24F Mar-25F Mar-26F
Revenue Growth 19.0% 10.4% 22.6% 15.7% 12.1%
Operating EBITDA Growth 3.8% 28.0% 30.7% 17.3% 12.4%
Operating EBITDA Margin 15.5% 18.0% 19.2% 19.4% 19.5%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs) 825.66 763.39 847.18 910.60 954.68
BVPS (Rs) 955.88 911.33 1,006.80 1,107.86 1,204.80
Gross Interest Cover 559.80 158.73 195.06 321.39 541.70
Effective Tax Rate 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio 88.1% 70.4% 65.6% 66.4% 71.2%
Accounts Receivables Days 23.41 16.50 17.26 18.64 18.92
Inventory Days 19.37 17.46 15.66 15.72 17.90
Accounts Payables Days 58.34 51.20 49.66 50.72 49.60
ROIC (%) 131.4% 164.0% 258.7% 254.9% 225.3%
ROCE (%) 22.8% 28.1% 35.1% 37.0% 37.9%
Return On Average Assets 14.5% 18.1% 22.1% 22.9% 23.4%
Key Drivers
Mar-22A Mar-23A Mar-24F Mar-25F Mar-26F
ASP (% chg, main prod./serv.) 9.7% 21.2% 9.7% 2.8% 1.8%
Unit sales grth (%, main prod./serv.) 8.4% (8.9%) 11.8% 12.6% 10.1%
8
Autos │ India
Bajaj Auto │ January 25, 2024
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9
Autos │ India
Bajaj Auto │ January 25, 2024
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10