RESULT REVIEW

SELL
TP: Rs 6,272 |  17%
BAJAJ AUTO | Automobiles | 27 January 2024

Healthy revival but priced in; downgrade to SELL

 Q3 revenue grew 30% YoY backed by healthy domestic 2W volume Milind Raginwar
+91 22 2653 0432
growth and revival in exports [email protected]

 Gross margin stayed flat at 29% despite softer input cost; operating Shree Kirloskar
leverage added 100bps YoY to EBITDA margin +91 22 6138 9352
[email protected]
 Our TP rises to Rs 6,272 (vs. Rs 5,139) on a higher target P/E of 18x (vs.
17x) and rollover; cut from HOLD to SELL post rally

Revenue gains YoY backed by motorcycle volumes: BJAUT’s Q3FY24 revenue Key changes
jumped 30% YoY (+12% QoQ) to Rs 121.1bn aided by healthy volume growth of Target Rating
22% (+14%) to 1.2mn units. Growth was driven by BJAUT’s focus on the 125cc+
segment which outpaced the industry average. Average realisation per vehicle grew
only 7% YoY (-1% QoQ) to Rs 101.2k, pointing to competitive pressure. Ticker/Price BJAUT IN/Rs 7,598
Market cap US$ 26.8bn
Gross Margin flat, operating efficiencies aide EBIDTAM: Raw material cost as a Free float 46%
percentage of sales was stable at 71% following a softening of key input costs. Even 3M ADV US$ 41.6mn
so, gross margin was flat YoY and QoQ at 29%, whereas better operating leverage 52wk high/low Rs 7,625/Rs 3,626
and cost management aided EBITDA margin expansion of 102bps YoY (+27bps Promoter/FPI/DII 54%/10%/13%
Source: NSE | Price as of 25 Jan 2024
QoQ) to 20.1%. Other expenditure fell 7% YoY (flat QoQ) to Rs 5.8k per vehicle.
EBITDA for the quarter increased 37% (+14% QoQ) to Rs 24bn. Key financials
Y/E 31 Mar FY23A FY24E FY25E
Triumph gains strong traction, other segments also fare well: Triumph sold 15k Total revenue (Rs mn) 3,64,276 4,45,551 5,05,765
units in Q3FY24 (8k in Q2) and Pulsar sold 400k units with a market share of 40% in EBITDA (Rs mn) 65,491 86,820 98,229
the 150-200cc segment (32% in FY23). Chetak had monthly sales of >10k units in Adj. net profit (Rs mn) 56,276 73,145 82,854
Q3 and management is aiming for >15k units in Q4FY24. Additionally, 3W sales Adj. EPS (Rs) 197.9 258.5 292.8
surpassed 40k units for the month of December vs. 30k units in Q3FY23. Consensus EPS (Rs) 197.9 259.0 297.0
Adj. ROAE (%) 21.6 24.9 24.6
Exports improve sequentially: Export volumes fell 4% YoY but inched up 2% QoQ Adj. P/E (x) 38.4 29.4 25.9
to stand at 70% of the peak levels achieved in FY22, as Red Sea disruptions EV/EBITDA (x) 33.9 25.2 22.2
Adj. EPS growth (%) 21.7 30.6 13.3
affected shipments in December. BJAUT has set up a new motorcycle plant in
Source: Company, Bloomberg, BOBCAPS Research
Manaus, Brazil, which is expected to commence production by Q1FY25
Stock performance
Positives priced in; cut to SELL: We adjust our FY24/FY25 EPS estimates by
BJAUT NSE Nifty (Relative)
+4%/-1% and introduce FY26 forecasts, now pencilling in an EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 7,640
21%/19% over FY23-FY26 based on BJAUT’s healthy product pipeline, EV 6,700
launches and gradual export revival. On rolling valuations over FY26E and valuing 5,760
4,820
the stock at 18x P/E vs. 17x earlier (a 15% premium over the 10Y average), we
3,880
arrive at a higher TP of Rs 6,272 (vs. Rs 5,139). However, the stock has rallied
2,940
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-24

recently and current valuations of 22x P/E FY26E appear rich, prompting our
downgrade from HOLD to SELL.
Source: NSE

BOB Capital Markets Ltd is a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of Baroda

Important disclosures and analyst certifications are provided at the end of the report.
BAJAJ AUTO

Fig 1 – Earnings call highlights

Parameter Q3FY24 Q2FY24 Our view

Volumes Domestic motorcycle industry (retail) volumes grew Domestic motorcycle industry volumes grew 10% BJAUT is likely to further
~11% YoY in Q3FY24 and management expects QoQ (retail) in Q2. Management expects 5-8% consolidate its position with
the industry to grow 8-10% in the coming months. growth in industry retail volumes for FY24 (and above-industry growth.
~20% QoQ growth pre-festive season).

Exports Exports in Q3FY24 fell 4% YoY (grew 2% QoQ) BJAUT’s Q2FY24 export volumes accounted for The revival in export
and stood at 70% of peak levels achieved in FY22. ~66% of its peak exports clocked in FY22, with both demand across regions
African and South Asian markets are at 50% of retail sales and shipments growing 8-10% QoQ catered to by BJAUT would
peak levels whereas the LATAM, Philippines and driven by double-digit growth in African markets further boost sales both in
Middle East markets are performing 103-107% (incl. Nigeria). Asia, MENA and LATAM markets the 2W and CV segments.
above FY22 peaks. grew in single digits.
Management expects exports markets to recover Management expects steady export recovery back
steadily. to peak levels.

Three- The monthly sales run-rate for 3Ws in December With 50k units sold in September alone, BJAUT’s 3W volumes are likely to
wheelers surpassed 40k units (against 30k units for the 3W volumes touched a new high of 130k units in gain further traction as EV
(3W) whole of Q3FY23). BJAUT’s market share in Q2, growing 81% YoY and 34% QoQ. The infrastructure falls into place
Q3FY24 was ~80% in the passenger segment and company’s market share held at 80% in September. and CNG vehicles transition
~85% in CNG 3Ws (which accounts for ~60% of to the EV space where
the industry). BJAUT leads the market.

Electric Electric 3W (E3W) sold during Dec’23 were at In Q2, the company launched E3Ws in Agra and Though EVs are a focus
vehicles ~1.8k units across 23 cities. Management intends captured 70% market share. Management is area for BJAUT, competition
(EV) to expand its EV presence to ~50 cities by Q4FY24. looking to enter markets where traditional is intense and can dilute its
Chetak volumes have breached the monthly 10k- autorickshaws are not permitted, as EV autos do not overall margin profile.
unit mark in Q3FY24 and management has a need government permits.
target of crossing ~15k units by Q4FY24. Management aims to expand sales of e-scooter
Market share for Chetak EV has increased from Chetak to ~10k units per month.
4% in FY23 to 14% in December. BJAUT held 11% market share in the 2W EV
segment in September.

Price No price hikes were taken during Q3FY24. BJAUT did not undertake significant price hikes Competitive intensity
hikes during the quarter. catching up in every
segment is likely to keep
margins rangebound.

Currency USDINR realisations were at Rs 83.2. USDINR realisations were at Rs 82.6. -

Commodities Commodity cost softened during Q3FY24, Commodity costs have softened, particularly on the Easing commodity costs will
particularly on the noble metals side, except steel metals side, aiding margins. Management expects provide some respite on
and lead where slight inflation was observed in the commodity prices to remain flattish in Q3. margins.
beginning of Q3FY24. Management expects a
slight increase in commodity cost in Q4FY24.

Cash Cash position as on Q3FY24 was ~Rs 185bn and Surplus cash totalled Rs 175bn with net free cash The company’s healthy
position management expects to close FY24 with a surplus flow addition of Rs 36bn in Q2. balance sheet can facilitate
of ~Rs 200bn after adjusting for the Rs 40bn further capex with ease,
buyback announced in Q4FY24. especially in the capex-
intensive EV space.

EQUITY RESEARCH 2 27 January 2024

BAJAJ AUTO

Parameter Q3FY24 Q2FY24 Our view

Key product The 125cc segment accounted for ~70% of sales The 125cc segment accounted for ~65% of sales A focus on high-end
segments volume in Q3. volume in Q2 vs. 70% in Q1. motorcycles and new
Management intends to enter the 100cc segment Management expects its 2Ws to continue launches will help BJAUT
and convert customers to 125cc where it enjoys outperforming the industry based on product boost sales, new launches
segment leadership. differentiation and positioning. may keep margins listless.
Triumph does not have any pending order book Triumph’s pending order book as on Q2 is ~10k
now and is available off the shelf. units.
Spares revenue stood at ~Rs 13bn. Spares revenue stood at Rs 12bn-12.5bn.
Source: Company, BOBCAPS Research

Fig 2 – Quarterly performance (Standalone)

(Rs mn) Q3FY24 Q3FY23 YoY (%) Q2FY24 QoQ (%) 9MFY24 9MFY23 YoY (%)
Volume 1,196,974 983,276 21.7 1,050,975 13.9 3,275,040 3,067,934 6.8
Avg. Realisation per Vehicle 101,201 94,736 6.8 102,545 (1.3) 101,374 89,711 13.0
Net Revenues 121,135 93,151 30.0 107,773 12.4 332,006 275,228 20.6
Total Income (A) 121,135 93,151 30.0 107,773 12.4 332,006 275,228 20.6
Operating Expenses:
Raw materials consumed 86,096 65,775 30.9 76,511 12.5 236,733 198,414 19.3
Employee Expenses 3,846 3,511 9.5 3,816 0.8 11,503 10,905 5.5
Other Expenses 6,895 6,125 12.6 6,118 12.7 18,603 17,703 5.1
Total Expenditure (B) 96,836 75,412 28.4 86,444 12.0 266,839 227,022 17.5
EBITDA (A-B) 24,299 17,740 37.0 21,329 13.9 65,167 48,206 35.2
Other Income 3,461 2,691 28.6 3,614 (4.2) 10,538 9,223 14.3
Depreciation 881 740 19.2 876 0.6 2,593 2,088 24.2
EBIT 26,879 19,691 36.5 24,066 11.7 73,112 55,341 32.1
Finance Costs 121 85 42.7 65 85.3 307 237 29.4
PBT after exceptional items 26,758 19,606 36.5 24,000 11.5 72,804 55,104 32.1
Tax expense 6,339 4,721 34.3 5,639 12.4 17,377 13,272 30.9
Reported PAT 20,419 14,886 37.2 18,361 11.2 55,428 41,832 32.5
Adjusted PAT 20,419 14,886 37.2 18,361 11.2 55,428 43,813 26.5
EPS (Rs) 72.2 52.6 37.2 64.9 11.2 194.6 152.6 27.5
Key Ratios (%) (bps) (bps) (bps)
Gross Margin 28.9 29.4 (46) 29.0 (8) 28.7 27.9 79
EBITDA Margin 20.1 19.0 102 19.8 27 19.6 17.5 211
EBIT Margin 22.2 21.1 105 22.3 (14) 22.0 20.1 191
PBT Margin 22.1 21.0 104 22.3 (18) 21.9 20.0 191
Tax Rate 23.7 24.1 (39) 23.5 19 23.9 24.1 (22)
Adj PAT Margin 16.9 16.0 88 17.0 (18) 16.7 15.9 78
Source: Company, BOBCAPS Research

EQUITY RESEARCH 3 27 January 2024

BAJAJ AUTO

Valuation methodology

We adjust our FY24/FY25 EPS estimates by +4%/-1% following the Q3FY24 results
and introduce FY26 forecasts for BJAUT, now pencilling in an EBITDA/PAT CAGR of
21%/19% over FY23-FY26. Our growth projections are based on the company’s healthy
product pipeline both in the entry-level and premium segments, EV launches which
mark its re-entry into scooters, and gradual export revival, especially in the 3W cargo
space. Our gross/EBITDA margin forecasts remain at ~29%/20% over FY24-FY26.

On rolling valuations over to FY26E and valuing the stock at 18x P/E vs. 17x earlier (a
15% premium over the 10Y average), we arrive at a higher TP of Rs 6,272 (vs.
Rs 5,139). However, we downgrade the stock from HOLD to SELL as current valuations
of 22x P/E FY26E appear rich following the recent run-up. In our view, rising cost and
margin pressures arising from the EV space, intense competitive headwinds in the
motorcycle business, and sustainability of export revival are key monitorables for
the stock.

Fig 3 – Revised estimates

New Old Change (%)
(Rs mn)
FY24E FY25E FY26E FY24E FY25E FY26E FY24E FY25E FY26E
Revenue 445,551 505,765 582,961 437,376 510,630 NA 1.9 (1.0) NA
EBITDA 86,820 98,229 1,16,315 81,685 97,483 NA 6.3 0.8 NA
Adj PAT 73,145 82,854 96,245 70,434 83,798 NA 3.8 (1.1) NA
Adj EPS (Rs) 259 293 340 248 295 NA 4.4 (0.6) NA
Source: BOBCAPS Research

Fig 4 – Key assumptions

Parameter FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
2W volume (nos) 34,40,704 37,50,367 40,87,900 44,96,690
3W volume (nos) 4,85,018 6,54,774 7,20,252 8,06,682
ASP (Rs) 92,792 1,01,143 1,05,189 1,09,923
Revenues (Rs mn) 3,64,276 4,45,551 5,05,765 5,82,961
EBITDA (Rs mn) 65,491 86,820 98,229 1,16,315
EBITDA margin (%) 18.0 19.5 19.4 20.0
Adj. PAT (Rs mn) 56,276.0 73,145.2 82,854.1 96,244.6
EPS (Rs) 197.9 258.5 292.8 340.1
Source: Company, BOBCAPS Research

Fig 5 – Peer comparison

EPS (Rs) ROE (%)
Company Ticker Rating Target Price (Rs)
FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E
Bajaj Auto BJAUT IN SELL 6,272 258.5 292.8 26.7 26.3
TVS Motor TVSL IN HOLD 1,531 40.8 56.7 28.1 30.0
Eicher Motors EIM IN HOLD 3,601 119.9 138.1 23.0 22.1
Source: BOBCAPS Research

EQUITY RESEARCH 4 27 January 2024

BAJAJ AUTO

Fig 6 – P/E band: Stock has run-up off late… Fig 7 – …and trades at +2SD which we feel is unjustified

(Rs) Adj Close Price 12x 16x 1Y fwd P/E Average P/E +1SD
(x)
20x 24x 28x -1SD +2SD -2SD
10,000 32
28
8,000
24
6,000 20
16
4,000 12
2,000 8
4
0 0
Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23

Jan-24

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23

Jan-24
Source: Company, Bloomberg, BOBCAPS Research Source: Company, Bloomberg, BOBCAPS Research

Key risks

Key upside risks to our estimates are:

 market share gains, especially in the high-end motorcycle segment,

 faster-than-expected domestic demand recovery in the lower-end segment, and

 higher commodity price relief than assumed.

Sector recommendation snapshot

Company Ticker Market Cap (US$ bn) Price (Rs) Target (Rs) Rating
Ashok Leyland AL IN 6.1 170 210 BUY
Bajaj Auto BJAUT IN 26.8 7,598 6,272 SELL
Eicher Motors EIM IN 12.0 3,616 3,601 HOLD
Escorts ESCORTS IN 4.7 2,945 2,343 SELL
Source: BOBCAPS Research, NSE | Price as of 25 Jan 2024

EQUITY RESEARCH 5 27 January 2024

BAJAJ AUTO

Financials
Income Statement Per Share
Y/E 31 Mar (Rs mn) FY22A FY23A FY24E FY25E FY26E Y/E 31 Mar (Rs) FY22A FY23A FY24E FY25E FY26E
Total revenue 3,31,447 3,64,276 4,45,551 5,05,765 5,82,961 Reported EPS 162.5 197.9 258.5 292.8 340.1
EBITDA 52,586 65,491 86,820 98,229 1,16,315 Adjusted EPS 173.4 197.9 258.5 292.8 340.1
Depreciation 2,692 2,824 3,152 3,552 4,152 Dividend per share 140.0 140.0 140.7 160.4 179.6
EBIT 61,987 74,481 97,402 1,09,872 1,29,205 Book value per share 921.6 894.1 1,039.6 1,189.7 1,367.9
Net interest inc./(exp.) (87) (395) (435) (446) (466)
Other inc./(exp.) 12,092 11,814 13,734 15,196 17,043 Valuations Ratios
Exceptional items 3,153 0 0 0 0 Y/E 31 Mar (x) FY22A FY23A FY24E FY25E FY26E
EBT 65,053 74,086 96,967 1,09,426 1,28,739 EV/Sales 6.6 6.1 4.9 4.3 3.8
Income taxes 14,865 17,810 23,822 26,572 32,495 EV/EBITDA 41.9 33.9 25.2 22.2 18.9
Extraordinary items 0 0 0 0 0 Adjusted P/E 43.8 38.4 29.4 25.9 22.3
Min. int./Inc. from assoc. 0 0 0 0 0 P/BV 8.2 8.5 7.3 6.4 5.6
Reported net profit 50,189 56,276 73,145 82,854 96,245
Adjustments (3,153) 0 0 0 0 DuPont Analysis
Adjusted net profit 47,036 56,276 73,145 82,854 96,245 Y/E 31 Mar (%) FY22A FY23A FY24E FY25E FY26E
Tax burden (Net profit/PBT) 72.3 76.0 75.4 75.7 74.8
Balance Sheet Interest burden (PBT/EBIT) 104.9 99.5 99.6 99.6 99.6
Y/E 31 Mar (Rs mn) FY22A FY23A FY24E FY25E FY26E EBIT margin (EBIT/Revenue) 18.7 20.4 21.9 21.7 22.2
Accounts payables 36,332 40,739 43,548 51,087 59,415 Asset turnover (Rev./Avg TA) 127.1 139.2 161.7 159.6 160.4
Other current liabilities 9,385 9,916 7,918 9,289 10,079 Leverage (Avg TA/Avg Equity) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Provisions 1,551 1,668 1,979 2,322 2,387 Adjusted ROAE 18.2 21.6 26.7 26.3 26.6
Debt funds 1,231 1,242 1,367 1,503 1,654
Other liabilities 3 0 0 0 0 Ratio Analysis
Equity capital 2,894 2,830 2,830 2,830 2,830 Y/E 31 Mar FY22A FY23A FY24E FY25E FY26E
Reserves & surplus 2,63,790 2,51,429 2,91,335 3,33,804 3,84,218 YoY growth (%)
Shareholders’ fund 2,66,684 2,54,258 2,94,165 3,36,634 3,87,047 Revenue 19.5 9.9 22.3 13.5 15.3
Total liab. and equities 3,15,185 3,07,823 3,48,977 4,00,835 4,60,582 EBITDA 9.0 24.5 32.6 13.1 18.4
Cash and cash eq. 5,884 2,858 5,602 3,261 5,175 Adjusted EPS 5.7 21.7 30.6 13.3 16.2
Accounts receivables 15,164 17,761 19,968 24,760 29,082 Profitability & Return ratios (%)
Inventories 12,305 13,979 17,750 22,154 26,100 EBITDA margin 15.9 18.0 19.5 19.4 20.0
Other current assets 25,053 18,396 24,759 29,782 33,574 EBIT margin 18.7 20.4 21.9 21.7 22.2
Investments 2,38,188 2,29,233 2,48,485 2,80,057 3,17,943 Adjusted profit margin 14.2 15.4 16.4 16.4 16.5
Net fixed assets 18,340 27,160 34,008 42,455 50,303 Adjusted ROAE 18.2 21.6 24.9 24.6 24.9
CWIP 768 819 475 395 395 ROCE 18.3 21.6 26.7 26.3 26.6
Intangible assets 0 0 0 0 0 Working capital days (days)
Deferred tax assets, net (4,033) (3,452) (4,002) (4,312) (4,622) Receivables 23 16 15 16 17
Other assets 3,518 1,071 1,931 2,281 2,631 Inventory 15 13 13 14 15
Total assets 3,15,187 3,07,825 3,48,977 4,00,835 4,60,582 Payables 62 54 48 48 49
Ratios (x)
Cash Flows Gross asset turnover 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2
Y/E 31 Mar (Rs mn) FY22A FY23A FY24E FY25E FY26E Current ratio 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3
Cash flow from operations 38,850 56,778 50,048 65,448 79,662 Net interest coverage ratio (715.8) (188.7) (223.9) (246.4) (277.3)
Capital expenditures (4,991) (11,695) (9,656) (11,920) (12,000) Adjusted debt/equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Change in investments (11,878) 8,954 (19,252) (31,572) (37,886) Source: Company, BOBCAPS Research | Note: TA = Total Assets
Other investing cash flows 12,092 11,814 13,734 15,196 17,043
Cash flow from investing (4,777) 9,073 (15,173) (28,296) (32,843)
Equities issued/Others 0 (64) 0 0 0
Debt raised/repaid (1,018) 12 124 137 150
Interest expenses (87) (395) (435) (446) (466)
Dividends paid (40,511) (39,811) (39,811) (45,385) (50,831)
Other financing cash flows (1,191) (582) 550 310 310
Cash flow from financing (42,807) (40,840) (39,572) (45,384) (50,837)
Chg in cash & cash eq. (8,734) 25,011 (4,698) (8,233) (4,018)
Closing cash & cash eq. 5,884 2,858 5,602 3,261 5,175

EQUITY RESEARCH 6 27 January 2024

BAJAJ AUTO

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IF SUCH AN ACTION IS PROHIBITED BY APPLICABLE LAW.

Disclaimer
Name of the Research Entity: BOB Capital Markets Limited
Registered office Address: 1704, B Wing, Parinee Crescenzo, G Block, BKC, Bandra East, Mumbai 400051
SEBI Research Analyst Registration No: INH000000040 valid till 03 February 2025
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Logo:

Investments in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

Recommendation scale: Recommendations and Absolute returns (%) over 12 months

BUY – Expected return >+15%
HOLD – Expected return from -6% to +15%
SELL – Expected return <-6%
Note: Recommendation structure changed with effect from 21 June 2021
Our recommendation scale does not factor in short-term stock price volatility related to market fluctuations. Thus, our recommendations may not always be strictly in
line with the recommendation scale as shown above.

Ratings and Target Price (3-year history): BAJAJ AUTO (BJAUT IN)

29-Apr (S)
(Rs) BJAUT stock price 27-Apr (H) 19-Oct (H)
BOBCAPS Research
TP:Rs 4188 TP:Rs 5139
TP:Rs 3200
7,640

6,700
29-Sep (H)
5,760 19-Oct (H) TP:Rs 4837
Milind Raginwar
20-Jan (B) TP:Rs 3636
4,820 TP:Rs 4231

3,880

2,940
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-24
B – Buy, H – Hold, S – Sell, A – Add, R – Reduce

Analyst certification
The research analyst(s) authoring this report hereby certifies that (1) all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect his/her personal views about
the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and (2) no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts are not registered as research analysts by FINRA and are not associated persons of BOB Capital Markets
Limited (BOBCAPS).

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BOBCAPS is also a SEBI-registered intermediary for the broking business having SEBI Single Registration Certificate No.: INZ000159332 dated 20 November 2017.
BOBCAPS prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts, and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives
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EQUITY RESEARCH 7 27 January 2024

BAJAJ AUTO

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EQUITY RESEARCH 8 27 January 2024