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QUANTIFYING CYBER RISK: PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR

IDENTIFYING AND PREVENTING HACKING BREACHES
Dr Kondragunta Rama Krishnaiah1, Dr Muvva Venkateswara Rao2
1
Professor, Dept. of CSE, R K College of Engineering, Vijayawada-521456, A.P, India.
2
Professor, Dept. of CSE, NRI Institute of Technology, Vijaywada- 521212, India.
ABSTRACT
With the escalating complexity of cyber threats, analyzing incident data sets has emerged as a crucial avenue for
enhancing our comprehension of the evolving threat landscape. This research delves into a relatively new and
imperative field, focusing on a 12-year span from 2005 to 2017, encapsulating cyber hacking activities. A
comprehensive statistical analysis of breach incident data sets forms the core of our investigation. we propose specific
stochastic process models tailored to fit the inter-arrival times and breach sizes, crucial dimensions in understanding
cyber threat dynamics. Our research demonstrates the efficacy of these models in predicting both inter-arrival times
and breach sizes, marking a significant advancement in proactive cyber security measures.
Qualitative and quantitative trend analyses are conducted on the dataset, offering nuanced insights into the evolving
nature of cyber threats over the studied period. The amalgamation of statistical rigor, stochastic modeling, and trend
analyses contributes to a holistic understanding of cyber threat evolution, paving the way for enhanced predictive
capabilities and proactive cyber security strategies. This research underscores the urgency for further exploration in
this nascent field, recognizing the plethora of opportunities to refine our understanding of cyber threats and fortify
digital defenses.
Keywords: Cyber Threats, Cyber Risk Analysis, Breach Prediction, Trend analysis.
1. INTRODUCTION
CONCEPTUALBACKGROUND:
Data breaches stand out as among the most devastating cyber incidents, persisting as a significant challenge despite
advancements in technological defenses. While cybersecurity measures aim to fortify systems against attacks, the
prevalence of data breaches remains a pressing concern. Recent research endeavors have turned towards modeling
data breach incidents, recognizing the need to understand and address the human errors associated with negligent
breaches. Motivated by unexplored questions in the field, this study seeks to uncover trends in data breaches,
particularly focusing on whether incidents caused by cyber-attacks are increasing, decreasing, or stabilizing. In
contrast to existing literature, our investigation reveals that modeling hacking breach incident inter-arrival times and
breach sizes demands a departure from traditional distributions, as these factors exhibit notable autocorrelations.
This study introduces specific stochastic process models tailored to capture the intricacies of both hacking breach
incident inter-arrival times and breach sizes. Demonstrating the predictive capabilities of these models, we illuminate
their potential to anticipate future incidents. In our pursuit of a deeper understanding of the evolution of hacking
breach incidents, we employ a dual approach, conducting both qualitative and quantitative trend analyses on the
dataset. The insights drawn from our analyses contribute to the cybersecurity discourse. Contrary to some existing
findings, our study suggests that the frequency of cyber hacks is on the rise, emphasizing the need for heightened
vigilance. However, our research also reveals that the magnitude of damage caused by these incidents may not
necessarily be increasing at a proportional rate. These nuanced findings pave the way for more targeted and effective
cybersecurity strategies, acknowledging the evolving nature of cyber threats and the imperative to stay ahead of
malicious actors.
2. LITERATUREREVIEW
Analyzing cyber incident datasets is a crucial approach for enhancing our comprehension of the evolving threat
landscape. This research area, while relatively new, holds great promise, with numerous avenues for further
exploration. In particular, breach sizes in cybersecurity incidents should be modeled using stochastic processes.
Notably, negligent breaches, often stemming from human errors, present a significant aspect of the cybersecurity
landscape, distinct from intentional cyber-attacks. As we delve into this emerging field, it becomes evident that
stochastic processes provide a more fitting framework for modeling breach sizes. Unlike traditional distribution-based
models, stochastic processes better capture the dynamic and evolving nature of cybersecurity incidents, especially
considering the varying impact of negligent breaches and intentional cyber-attacks. Human errors leading to negligent
breaches introduce a unique dimension to the cybersecurity challenge. Understanding the dynamics of these incidents
is crucial for developing effective mitigation and prevention strategies. While technological solutions are pivotal in
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defending against intentional cyber-attacks, addressing human errors requires a nuanced approach that considers the
behavioral and organizational aspects contributing to these incidents.
In the context of existing systems, the integration of stochastic processes for modeling breach sizes offers an
opportunity to refine risk assessments and incident response strategies. By acknowledging the probabilistic and
evolving nature of cybersecurity incidents, organizations can better prepare for and mitigate the impact of breaches.
Moving forward, there is a need for further research to explore the intricacies of modeling breach sizes using
stochastic processes. This includes refining models based on real-world incident data, identifying key factors
influencing breach sizes, and developing predictive capabilities to enhance cybersecurity resilience. As the
cybersecurity landscape continues to evolve, embracing stochastic modeling becomes essential for staying ahead of
emerging threats and ensuring the robustness of defense mechanisms within existing systems.
3. PROPOSEDAPPROACH
Investigate the Cybercrime Underground Economy Emphasize the closed community nature of the cybercrime
underground. Collect Data Relevant to the Cybercrime Underground. Consider what data is needed and where it can
be obtained. Collect data from the cybercrime underground community. Obtain malware-related data from a leading
global cyber security research firm. Emphasize the importance of Remote Access Trojans (RATs). Integrate RAT
elements into all steps (Steps 1-4) of the framework. Model hacking breach incident interarrival times and breach
sizes. Utilize ARMA-GARCH models to describe the evolution of hacking breaches. Stress the use of stochastic
processes over distributions. Consider dependence for accurate prediction results in inter-arrival times and breach
sizes. A comprehensive approach covering all phases of data analysis. Emphasis on RATs throughout the process.
Integration of data collection, modeling, and application development. Develop an application based on the analytical
methods. Implement the application to facilitate the investigation of the cybercrime underground. Ensure the
application incorporates RAT-based definitions and insights gained from the data analysis.

FIGURE 1: Identifying And Preventing Hacking Breaches

3.1 ALGORITHM:
SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE (S.V.M): Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a supervised machine learning
algorithm.
Which can be used for both classification and regression challenges. However, it is mostly used in classification
problems. In this algorithm, we plot each data item as a point in n-dimensional space (where n is number of features
you have) with the value of each feature being the value of a particular coordinate. Then, we perform classification by
finding the hyper-plane that differentiate the two classes very well (look at the below snapshot). Support Vectors are
simply the co-ordinates of individual observation. Support Vector Machine is a frontier which best segregates the two
classes (hyper-plane/ line). More formally, a support vector machine constructs a hyper plane or set of hyper planes in
a high- or infinite-dimensional space, which can be used for classification, regression, or other tasks like outliers
detection. Intuitively, a good separation is achieved by the hyper plane that has the largest distance to the nearest
training- data point of any class (so-called functional margin), since in general the larger the margin the lower the
generalization error of the classifier. Whereas the original problem may be stated in a finite dimensional space, it often
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happens that the sets to discriminate are not linearly separable in that space. For this reason, it was proposed that the
original finite-dimensional space be mapped into a much higher-dimensional space, presumably making the separation
easier in that space.
3.2METHODS:
First, we show that both the hacking breach incident interarrival times (reflecting incident frequency) and breach sizes
should be modeled by stochastic processes, rather than by distributions.
➢ To describe the evolution of hacking breaches we use ARMA-GARCH model methods.
➢ These stochastic process models can predict the inter-arrival times and the breach sizes.
➢ When predicting inter-arrival times and breach sizes, it is necessary to consider the dependence; otherwise, the
prediction results are not accurate.
4. RESULTSANDDISCUSSION
In (left panel) there is a clear trend of 1367 daily observations prices of the S.M.R 20 in Malaysia from 4th January
2010 to 4th August 2015. When daily prices converted to log returns, the plot in (right panel) illustrates there are large
negative values especially on March and October 2011.

FIGURE 2: Daily Prices For The Smr20

4.1 TREND ANALYSIS:
The presentation of both qualitative and quantitative trend analyses on hacking breach incidents based on the models
presented earlier. The approach involves decomposing the data into two parts: the trend part and the random (or noise)
part. By combining both qualitative and quantitative analyses, this approach aims to provide a comprehensive
understanding of the trends in hacking breach incidents, considering both the statistical patterns and the context in
which they occur.

Figure 3: both qualitative and quantitative trend analyses on the hacking breach
It appears there might be a discrepancy between the finding presented and the previous conclusion that was based on a
super dataset involving different incident types (negligent breaches and malicious breaching). The present study,
however, seems to concentrate specifically on hacking breach incidents, which is a subset or a proper sub-type within
the broader category of malicious breaches. By explicitly addressing the scope difference and contextualizing the
findings, you can ensure a clear and accurate representation of the insights derived from the specific focus on hacking
breach incidents in the present study.
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Figure 4: UsingtheARMA-GARCHmodeltodecomposethelog-TRANSFORMED BREACH

SIZESINTOATRENDpartandarandompart
5. CONCLUSION
We analyzed a hacking breach dataset from the points of view of the incidents inter-arrival time and the breach size,
and showed that they both should be modeled by stochastic processes rather than distributions. The statistical models
developed in this paper show satisfactory fitting and prediction accuracies. In particular, we propose using a copula-
based approach to predict the joint probability that an incident with a certain magnitude of breach size will occur
during a future period of time. Statistical tests show that the methodologies proposed in this paper are better than
those which are presented in the literature, because the latter ignored both the temporal correlations and the
dependence between the incidents inter-arrival times and the breach sizes. We conducted qualitative and quantitative
analyses to draw further insights. We drew a set of cyber security insights, including that the threat of cyber hacking
breach incidents is indeed getting worse in terms of their frequency, but not the magnitude of their damage. The
methodology presented in this paper can be adopted or adapted to analyze datasets of a similar nature.
5.1 FUTURESCOPE:
Real-time intelligence: The longer it takes to identify a hack, the more costly its consequences. With just 60 seconds'
notification of a compromise, resulting costs could be reduced by 40%.
Cyber-insurance: Insurers typically limit their capacity to between $5 million and $100million per client. As of
October 2016, only 29% of US business had purchased cyber- insurance. However, the overall cyber-insurance market
is estimated to be $20 billion by2025, up from $3.25 billion today.
Bug bounty programs: Organizations pay outsiders ("friendly hackers") to notify them of security flaws. Companies
ranging from Google and Dropbox to AT&T and LinkedIn have already adopted this practice.
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