Search Results (69)

This study presents a comprehensive analysis on the variations in the tropical cyclone (TC) frequencies during 1980–2021, including the linear trends, periodicities, and their variabilities on both global and basin-wise scales. An increasing trend in the annual number of global TCs is identified, with a significant rising trend in the numbers of tropical storms (maximum sustained wind 35 kts≤Umax<64 kts) and intense typhoons (Umax≥96 kts) and a deceasing trend for weak typhoons (64 kts≤Umax<96 kts). There is no statistically significant trend shown in the global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). On a regional scale, the Western North Pacific (WNP) and Eastern North Pacific (ENP) are the regions of the first- and second-largest numbers of TCs, respectively, while the increased TC activity in the North Atlantic (NA) contributes the most to the global increase in TCs. It is revealed in the wavelet transformation for periodicity analysis that the variations in the annual number of TCs with different intensities mostly show an inter-annual period of 3–7 years and an inter-decadal one of 10–13 years. The inter-annual and inter-decadal periods are consistent with those in the ENSO-related ocean drivers (via the Niño 3.4 index), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index. The inter-decadal variation in 10–13 years is also observed in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index, on the other hand, present the same inter-annual period of 7–10 years as that in the frequencies of all the named TCs in the NA. Further, the correlations between TC frequencies and ocean drivers are also quantified using the Pearson correlation coefficient. These findings contribute to an enhanced understanding of TC activity, thereby facilitating efforts to predict particular TC activity and mitigate the inflicted damage. Full article

Estimating tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is crucial for disaster reduction and risk management. This study aims to estimate TC intensity using machine learning (ML) models. We utilized eight ML models to predict TC intensity, incorporating factors such as TC location, central pressure, distance to land, landfall in the next six hours, storm speed, storm direction, date, and number from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship Version 4 (IBTrACS V4). The dataset was divided into four sub-datasets based on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (Neutral, El Niño, and La Niña). Our results highlight that central pressure has the greatest effect on TC intensity estimation, with a maximum root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.289 knots (equivalent to 0.663 m/s). Cubist and Random Forest (RF) models consistently outperformed others, with Cubist showing superior performance in both training and testing datasets. The highest bias was observed in SVM models. Temporal analysis revealed the highest mean error in January and November, and the lowest in February. Errors during the Warm phase of ENSO were notably higher, especially in the South China Sea. Central pressure was identified as the most influential factor for TC intensity estimation, with further exploration of environmental features recommended for model robustness. Full article

Potential impacts of projected long-term climate change toward the end of the 21st century on rainfall and peak intensity of six super-typhoons in the western North Pacific (WNP) are assessed using a cloud-resolving model (CRM) and the pseudo-global warming (PGW) method, under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Linear long-term trends in June–October are calculated from 38 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models from 1981–2000 to 2081–2100, with warmings of about 3 °C in sea surface temperature, 4 °C in air temperature in the lower troposphere, and increases of 20% in moisture in RCP8.5. The changes in RCP4.5 are about half the amounts. For each typhoon, three experiments are carried out: a control run (CTL) using analysis data as initial and boundary conditions (IC/BCs), and two future runs with the trend added to the IC/BCs, one for RCP4.5 and the other for RCP8.5, respectively. Their results are compared for potential impacts of climate change. In future scenarios, all six typhoons produce more rain rather consistently, by around 10% in RCP4.5 and 20% in RCP8.5 inside 200–250 km from the center, with increased variability toward larger radii. Such increases are tested to be highly significant and can be largely explained by the increased moisture and water vapor convergence in future scenarios. However, using this method, the results on peak intensity are mixed and inconsistent, with the majority of cases becoming somewhat weaker in future runs. It is believed that in the procedure to determine the best initial time for CTL, which yielded the strongest TC, often within a few hPa in minimum central sea-level pressure to the best track data, an advantage was introduced to the CTL unintentionally. Once the long-term trends were added in future runs, the environment of the storm was altered and became not as favorable for subsequent intensification. Thus, the PGW approach may have some bias in assessing the peak intensity of such super-typhoon cases, and caution should be practiced. Full article

The green production behaviors of farmers in protected areas (PAs) can reduce environmental disturbances and contribute to the effectiveness of PAs. Based on a survey of 708 farmers in Wuyishan National Park (WNP) and Crested Ibis Nature Reserve (CINR), we studied the influence of perceived benefit and policy incentive on farmers’ organic fertilizer application. Results: (1) Perceived benefit, subsidies policy, and propaganda policy significantly promoted farmers’ organic fertilizer application, with perceived benefit having the strongest effect, followed by subsidies policy. The influence of restriction policy was not significant. (2) Perceived benefit, subsidies policy, and propaganda policy indirectly influenced organic fertilizer application through ecological awareness. (3) In WNP, perceived benefit had the strongest effect on organic fertilizer application, and subsidies policy significantly enhanced farmers’ ecological awareness and influenced their behaviors. In contrast, subsidies policy had the strongest effect on organic fertilizer application, but did not significantly enhance farmers’ ecological awareness in CINR. These results offer valuable insights for promoting green production behaviors of farmers in PAs. This study implies that there must be a pathway for the realization of ecological value in ecological protection. Ecological value realization is the endogenous motivation for farmers’ sustainable green production behaviors. However, government subsidies and guidance are also essential in the early stage. Full article

Previous studies suggested that spring precipitation over the tropical western Pacific Ocean can influence the development of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To identify crucial precipitation patterns for post-spring ENSO evolution, a singular value decomposition (SVD) method was applied to spring precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, and three precipitation and ENSO types were obtained with each highlighting precipitation over the Maritime Continent (MC) or western north Pacific (WNP). High MC spring precipitation corresponds to the slow decay of a multi-year La Niña event. Low MC spring precipitation is associated with a rapid El Niño-to-La Niña transition. High WNP spring precipitation is related to positive north Pacific meridional mode and induces the El Niño initiation. Among the three ENSO types, ocean current and heat content behave differently. Based on these spring precipitation and oceanic factors, a statistical model was established aimed at predicting winter ENSO state. Compared to a full dynamical model, this model exhibits higher prediction skills in the winter ENSO phase and amplitude for the period of 1980–2022. The explained total variance of the winter Niño-3.4 index increases from 43% to 75%, while the root-mean-squared error decreases from 0.82 °C to 0.53 °C. The practical utility and limitations of this model are also discussed. Full article

Previous research on national park conservation has predominantly concentrated on their internal regions, with scant attention given to the parks and their adjacent areas as integrated entities. Therefore, the investigation of land cover and landscape ecological risks in national parks and surrounding areas is essential for overall ecosystem protection and regional sustainable development. This study examines the spatiotemporal evolution of land cover and its landscape ecological risk in Wuyishan National Park, China, and its surrounding areas (WNPSA) from 1990 to 2020. The results show that (1) the land cover of WNPSA from 1990 to 2020 predominantly exhibited a consistent decline in forested areas, paralleled by an augmentation in farmland and impervious surface areas. The center of standard deviation ellipse of impervious surfaces has been progressively moving further south in tandem with the expansion of these surfaces, primarily located within the county town of Fujian Province. (2) The Wuyishan National Park (WNP) areas were dominated by low values of landscape index, and the high value areas in the park were mainly located at the provincial boundary area, with a gradual narrowing during 1990–2020, suggesting a decrease in landscape heterogeneity within the park. High value areas in the surrounding areas mainly occurred in areas with clustered impervious surfaces (e.g., the county town), where part of them located in Wuyishan City have spread to the edge area southeast of WNP. (3) From 1990 to 2020, the lowest-risk areas continue to expand. However, as the medium-risk zone of the adjacent region extends into the edge of the national park, the low risk zone within the national park exhibits a trend from continuous to separate with the neighboring low risk zone. This led to an escalating stress effect on the ecological security of both the adjacent regions and the national park’s boundary areas due to land cover changes. Full article

As the most significant interannual signal in the tropical Pacific, the influence of ENSO on the interannual variability in TC genesis location in the western North Pacific (WNP) has received much attention in previous studies. This paper mainly emphasizes the underlying SST factors independent of the ENSO signal and explores how they modulate interannual tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) latitude variability. Our study finds that the meridional sea temperature gradient (SSTG) between the Kuroshio Extension and the WNP still has a significant effect on the interannual variability in the TCG latitude after removing the effect of ENSO (r = 0.6). The interannual forecasts of the TCG latitude were effectively improved from 0.67 to 0.81 when the ENSO-independent SSTG and ENSO were regressed together in a multi-linear regression. We then propose an ENSO-independent physical mechanism affecting the TCG latitude. The equatorward (poleward) SSTG excited the positive (negative) Pacific–Japan telecorrelation pattern over the WNP, forming Rossby wave trains and propagating northward. A significant cyclonic vortex (anticyclonic vortex) with strong convective development (suppression) developed near 20° N, leading more TCs to the northern (southern) part of the WNP. These findings provide a new perspective for the prediction of the interannual variability in the TCG latitude. Full article

Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) latency represents a significant hurdle in finding a cure for HIV-1 infections, despite tireless research efforts. This challenge is partly attributed to the intricate nature of HIV-1 latency, wherein various host and viral factors participate in multiple physiological processes. While substantial progress has been made in discovering therapeutic targets for HIV-1 transcription, targets for the post-transcriptional regulation of HIV-1 infections have received less attention. However, cumulative evidence now suggests the pivotal contribution of post-transcriptional regulation to the viral latency in both in vitro models and infected individuals. In this review, we explore recent insights on post-transcriptional latency in HIV-1 and discuss the potential of its therapeutic targets, illustrating some host factors that restrict HIV-1 at the post-transcriptional level. Full article

Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) modulates the generation of typhoons (TYs) in the western North Pacific (WNP). Using IBTrACS v04 tropical cyclone best path data, ERA5 reanalysis data, and the MJO index from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), this paper defines an index to describe the persistent anomalies of the MJO and to examine the statistical characteristics of TYs over 44 years (1978–2021), focusing on the analysis of major differences in environmental conditions after the removal of the ENSO signal over the WNP. The results indicate that the persistent anomalous state of the MJO influences the change in large-scale environmental factors, which, in turn, affects the generation of TYs, as follows: (1) For the I high-value years, the center of the MJO stagnates in the Indian Ocean–South China Sea (SCS), the monsoon trough retreats westward, the warm pool becomes warmer, and the Walker circulation is enhanced. There is stronger upper-level divergence and low-level convergence, larger low-level relative vorticity, higher mid-level relative humidity, and smaller vertical wind shear in the SCS and the seas near the Philippines. Consequently, these conditions foster a conducive environment for TY genesis in the SCS and the seas near the Philippines. (2) For the I low-value years, the center of the MJO stagnates in the WNP–North America region, the monsoon trough extends eastward, the warm pool becomes colder, and the Walker circulation is weakened. Consequently, these conditions are more likely to facilitate TY genesis in the central–eastern WNP. The results show that persistent anomalies in MJO active centers can effectively improve the predictive ability of TY frequency. Full article

To gain insight into how immunity develops against SARS-CoV-2 from 2020 to 2022, we analyzed the immune response of a small group of university staff and students who were either infected or vaccinated. We investigated the levels of receptor-binding domain (RBD)-specific and nucleocapsid (N)-specific IgG and IgA antibodies in serum and saliva samples taken early (around 10 days after infection or vaccination) and later (around 1 month later), as well as N-specific T-cell responses. One patient who had been infected in 2020 developed serum RBD and N-specific IgG antibodies, but declined eight months later, then mRNA vaccination in 2021 produced a higher level of anti-RBD IgG than natural infection. In the vaccination of naïve individuals, vaccines induced anti-RBD IgG, but it declined after six months. A third vaccination boosted the IgG level again, albeit to a lower level than after the second. In 2022, when the Omicron variant became dominant, familial transmission occurred among vaccinated people. In infected individuals, the levels of serum anti-RBD IgG antibodies increased later, while anti-N IgG peaked earlier. The N-specific activated T cells expressing IFN γ or CD107a were detected only early. Although SARS-CoV-2-specific salivary IgA was undetectable, two individuals showed a temporary peak in RBD- and N-specific IgA antibodies in their saliva on the second day after infection. Our study, despite having a small sample size, revealed that SARS-CoV-2 infection triggers the expected immune responses against acute viral infections. Moreover, our findings suggest that the temporary mucosal immune responses induced early during infection may provide better protection than the currently available intramuscular vaccines. Full article

The aim of the present study was to investigate the use of Posidonia oceanica for making products beneficial for human health. Firstly, we demonstrated that the antioxidant defense (i.e., SOD and APX activity) of P. oceanica’s living leaves (LP) has low efficacy, as they partly neutralize the produced H₂O₂. However, high H₂O₂ levels led LP to produce, as a response to oxidative stress, high phenolic content, including chicoric acid, p-coumaric acid, caftaric acid, trans-cinnamic and rutin hydrate, as shown by UHPLC-DAD analysis. In addition, LP extracts inhibited intestinal cancer cell proliferation. Moreover, P. oceanica’s beach casts consisting of either Wet ‘Necromass’ (WNP) or Dry ‘Necromass’ (DNP) were used for preparing extracts. Both DNP and WNP exhibited antioxidant and antiproliferative activities, although lower as compared to those of LP extracts. Although both P. oceanica’s meadows and beach casts are considered priority habitats in the Mediterranean Sea due to their high ecological value, legislation framework for beach casts forbidding their removal is still missing. Our results suggested that both LP and DNP could be utilized for the production of high-added value products promoting human health, provided that a sustainability management strategy would be applied for P. oceanica’s meadows and beach casts. Full article

Typhoon Saola was the ninth typhoon that generated over the Western North Pacific (WNP) in 2023, and it caused severe storm impacts. However, its complex moving track and heavy intensity made it extremely difficult to forecast; therefore, detailed analysis is necessary. In this study, GPM, Himawari-9, and FY-4B satellite data were used to analyze the characteristics of the structure, brightness temperature, and precipitation of the typhoon cloud system. Our results showed that, in the 89 and 183 GHz channels of GPM-1CGMI, the brightness temperature of the typhoon eye was 80–90 K higher than that of the eye wall, and the strong convective areas below 200 K were clearer in these high-frequency channels. GPM-2ADPR estimated heavy rain (over 30 mm/h) area, storm height (5 km), and vertical precipitation rate (30–40 mm/h) more accurately than the GPM-2Aka and GPM-2Aku products. Himawari-9 satellite data showed that the brightness temperature of the eye wall and spiral cloud bands was 180–200 K, the typhoon eye was small and round, and strong convective activities were mostly located in the southwest side of the center. The FY-4B CLP and CLT products showed that, in the mature period of the typhoon, the percentage of supercooled and mixed clouds first stabilized and then rapidly decreased. The trends observed among the three types of ice-phase clouds were characterized by an initial increase, followed by a decrease, and then another increase, with percentages between 10% and 25%, 5% and 15%, and 15% and 30%, respectively. Full article

This work investigates the inter-model diversity of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation’s (PDO) impact on tropical cyclone frequency (TCF) over the Western North Pacific (WNP) from the historical simulation of twenty-two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The impact of the PDO is expressed as the TCF difference between the positive and negative PDO phases. The comparison between the models with high PDO skill and low PDO skill shows that the PDO-related sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between the western and central tropical Pacific plays an important role in changing the large-scale atmospheric dynamic fields for TC genesis and, thus, the TCF over the WNP. This SST gradient also significantly contributes to the inter-model spread of PDO’s impact on TCF across the 22 CMIP6 models. We, therefore, stress that the PDO-related eastward SST gradient between the western and central tropical Pacific triggers the lower troposphere westerly and eastward extending of the monsoon trough over the WNP. The moistening of the atmosphere and enhancing ascending motion in the mid-troposphere promote convection, leading to the easterly wind anomaly over the upper troposphere, which reduces the vertical wind shear. Those favorable dynamic conditions consistently promote the TC formation over the southeastern part of the Western North Pacific. Our results highlight that PDO could impact the WNP TCF through its associated tropical SST gradient. Full article

This study investigates the interdecadal change in the covariability between the Tibetan Plateau (TP) east–west dipole precipitation and Indian precipitation during summer and primarily explores the modulation of atmospheric circulation anomalies on the covariability. The results reveal that the western TP precipitation (WTPP), eastern TP precipitation (ETPP), and northwestern Indian precipitation (NWIP) have covariability, with an in-phase variation between the WTPP and NWIP and an out-of-phase variation between the WTPP and ETPP. Moreover, this covariability was unclear during 1981–2004 and became significant during 2005–2019, showing a clear interdecadal change. During 2005–2019, a thick geopotential height anomaly, which tilted slightly northward, governed the TP, forming upper- and lower-level coupled circulation anomalies (i.e., anomalous upper-level westerlies over the TP and lower-level southeasterlies and northeasterlies around the southern flank of the TP). As such, the upper- and lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies synergistically modulate the summer WTPP, ETPP, and NWIP, causing the covariability of summer precipitation over the TP and India during 2005–2019. The upper- or lower-level circulation anomalies cannot independently result in significant precipitation covariability. During 1981–2004, the upper- and lower-level circulation anomalies were not strongly coupled, which caused precipitation non-covariability. The sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) and tropical Atlantic (TA) may synergistically modulate the upper- and lower-level coupled circulation anomalies, contributing to the covariability of the WTPP, ETPP, and NWIP during 2005–2019. The modulation of the WNP and TA SSTs on the coupled circulation anomalies was weaker during 1981–2004, which was therefore not conducive to this precipitation covariability. This study may provide valuable insights into the characteristics and mechanisms of spatiotemporal variation in summer precipitation over the TP and its adjacent regions, thus offering scientific support for local water resource management, ecological environment protection, and social and economic development. Full article

Identifying vertical characteristics of mountainous vegetation distribution is necessary for studying the ecological environment quality and biodiversity and for evaluating its responses to climate change. However, producing fine vegetation distribution in a complex mountainous area remains a huge challenge. This study developed a framework based on multi-source high-resolution satellite images to strengthen the understanding of vertical features of vegetation distribution. We fused GaoFen-6 and Sentinel-2 data to produce 2 m multispectral data, combined with ALOS PALSAR digital elevation model (DEM) data, and used an object-based method to extract variables for establishing a classification model. The spatial distribution of vegetation types in Wuyishan National Park (WNP) was then obtained using a hierarchical random forest classifier. The characteristics of different vegetation types along the elevation gradient and their distribution patterns under different human protection levels were finally examined. The results show that (1) An overall accuracy of 87.11% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.85 for vegetation classification was achieved. (2) WNP exhibits obviously vertical differentiation of vegetation types, showing four compound dominant zone groups and five dominant belts. (3) The composition of vegetation types in the scenic area differs significantly from other regions. The proportions of Masson pine and Chinese fir exhibit a noticeably decreasing trend as the distance increases away from roads, while the changes in broadleaf forest and bamboo forest are less pronounced. Full article