Search Results (674)

With the continuous advancement of petroleum extraction technologies, the importance of horizontal and inclined wells in reservoir exploitation has been increasing. However, accurately predicting oil–water two-phase flow regimes is challenging due to the complexity of subsurface fluid flow patterns. This paper introduces a novel approach to address this challenge by employing extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost, version 2.1.0) optimised through Bayesian techniques (using the Bayesian-optimization library, version 1.4.3) to predict oil–water two-phase flow regimes. The integration of Bayesian optimisation aims to enhance the efficiency of parameter tuning and the precision of predictive models. The methodology commenced with experimental studies utilising a multiphase flow simulation apparatus to gather data across a spectrum of water cut rate, well inclination angles, and flow rates. Flow patterns were meticulously recorded via direct visual inspection, and these empirical datasets were subsequently used to train and validate both the conventional XGBoost model and its Bayesian-optimised counterpart. A total of 64 datasets were collected, with 48 sets used for training and 16 sets for testing, divided in a 3:1 ratio. The findings highlight a marked improvement in predictive accuracy for the Bayesian-optimised XGBoost model, achieving a testing accuracy of 93.8%, compared to 75% for the traditional XGBoost model. Precision, recall, and F1-score metrics also showed significant improvements: precision increased from 0.806 to 0.938, recall from 0.875 to 0.938, and F1-score from 0.873 to 0.938. The training accuracy further supported these results, with the Bayesian-optimised XGBoost (BO-XGBoost) model achieving an accuracy of 0.948 compared to 0.806 for the traditional XGBoost model. Comparative analyses demonstrate that Bayesian optimisation enhanced the predictive capabilities of the algorithm. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis revealed that well inclination angles, water cut rates, and daily flow rates were the most significant features contributing to the predictions. This study confirms the efficacy and superiority of the Bayesian-optimised XGBoost (BO-XGBoost) algorithm in predicting oil–water two-phase flow regimes, offering a robust and effective methodology for investigating complex subsurface fluid dynamics. The research outcomes are crucial in improving the accuracy of oil–water two-phase flow predictions and introducing innovative technical approaches within the domain of petroleum engineering. This work lays a foundational stone for the advancement and application of multiphase flow studies. Full article

This study investigates the complex relationships between process parameters and material properties in FDM-based 3D-printed biocomposites using explainable AI techniques. We examine the effects of key parameters, including biochar content (BC), layer thickness (LT), raster angle (RA), infill pattern (IP), and infill density (ID), on the tensile, flexural, and impact strengths of FDM-printed pure PLA and biochar-reinforced PLA composites. Mechanical testing was used to measure the ultimate tensile strength (UTS), flexural strength (FS), and impact strength (IS) of the 3D-printed samples. The extreme gradient boosting (XGB) algorithm was used to build a predictive model based on the data collected from mechanical testing. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP), Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME), and Partial Dependence Plot (PDP) techniques were implemented to understand the effects of the interactions of key parameters on mechanical properties such as UTS, FS, and IS. Prediction by XGB was accurate for UTS, FS, and IS, with R-squared values of 0.96, 0.95, and 0.85, respectively. The explanation showed that infill density has the most significant influence on UTS and FS, with SHAP values of +2.75 and +5.8, respectively. BC has the most significant influence on IS, with a SHAP value of +2.69. PDP reveals that using 0.3 mm LT and 30° RA enhances mechanical properties. This study contributes to the field of the application of artificial intelligence in additive manufacturing. A novel approach is presented in which machine learning and XAI techniques such as SHAP, LIME, and PDP are combined and used not only for optimization but also to provide valuable insights about the interaction of the process parameters with mechanical properties. Full article

In the rapidly evolving field of real estate economics, the prediction of house prices continues to be a complex challenge, intricately tied to a multitude of socio-economic factors. Traditional predictive models often overlook spatial interdependencies that significantly influence housing prices. The objective of this study is to leverage Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) on open statistics knowledge graphs to model these spatial dependencies and predict house prices across Scotland’s 2011 data zones. The methodology involves retrieving integrated statistical indicators from the official Scottish Open Government Data portal and applying three representative GNN algorithms: ChebNet, GCN, and GraphSAGE. These GNNs are compared against traditional models, including the tabular-based XGBoost and a simple Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), demonstrating superior prediction accuracy. Innovative contributions of this study include the use of GNNs to model spatial dependencies in real estate economics and the application of local and global explainability techniques to enhance transparency and trust in the predictions. The global feature importance is determined by a logistic regression surrogate model while the local, region-level understanding of the GNN predictions is achieved through the use of GNNExplainer. Explainability results are compared with those from a previous work that applied the XGBoost machine learning algorithm and the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) explainability framework on the same dataset. Interestingly, both the global surrogate model and the SHAP approach underscored the comparative illness factor, a health indicator, and the ratio of detached dwellings as the most crucial features in the global explainability. In the case of local explanations, while both methods showed similar results, the GNN approach provided a richer, more comprehensive understanding of the predictions for two specific data zones. Full article

COVID-19 vaccination status has become a significant factor influencing carbon emissions in recent years. This paper explores the relationship between vaccination programs and CO₂ emissions to provide scientific support for future emergency management. The study utilizes daily carbon emissions data and daily vaccination program data from six sectors within the European Union. It compares the accuracy of various machine learning models by incorporating 11 economic control variables. Additionally, it quantitatively decomposes the contribution of each variable to carbon emissions during the pandemic using SHAP values. The findings indicate that the LightGBM model predicts carbon emissions much more accurately than other models. Furthermore, COVID-19-related variables, such as daily vaccination volumes and cumulative vaccination totals, are identified as significant factors affecting carbon emissions. Full article

Wildfire susceptibility maps play a crucial role in preemptively identifying regions at risk of future fires and informing decisions related to wildfire management, thereby aiding in mitigating the risks and potential damage posed by wildfires. This study employs eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques, particularly SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), to map wildfire susceptibility in Izmir Province, Türkiye. Incorporating fifteen conditioning factors spanning topography, climate, anthropogenic influences, and vegetation characteristics, machine learning (ML) models (Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM) were used to predict wildfire-prone areas using freely available active fire pixel data (MODIS Active Fire Collection 6 MCD14ML product). The evaluation of the trained ML models showed that the Random Forest (RF) model outperformed XGBoost and LightGBM, achieving the highest test accuracy (95.6%). All of the classifiers demonstrated a strong predictive performance, but RF excelled in sensitivity, specificity, precision, and F-1 score, making it the preferred model for generating a wildfire susceptibility map and conducting a SHAP analysis. Unlike prevailing approaches focusing solely on global feature importance, this study fills a critical gap by employing a SHAP summary and dependence plots to comprehensively assess each factor’s contribution, enhancing the explainability and reliability of the results. The analysis reveals clear associations between factors such as wind speed, temperature, NDVI, slope, and distance to villages with increased fire susceptibility, while rainfall and distance to streams exhibit nuanced effects. The spatial distribution of the wildfire susceptibility classes highlights critical areas, particularly in flat and coastal regions near settlements and agricultural lands, emphasizing the need for enhanced awareness and preventive measures. These insights inform targeted fire management strategies, highlighting the importance of tailored interventions like firebreaks and vegetation management. However, challenges remain, including ensuring the selected factors’ adequacy across diverse regions, addressing potential biases from resampling spatially varied data, and refining the model for broader applicability. Full article

Investigating urban vitality and comprehending the influence mechanisms of the built environment is essential for achieving sustainable urban growth and improving the quality of life for residents. Current research has rarely addressed the nonlinear relationships and synergistic effects between urban vitality and the built environment at the neighborhood scale. This oversight may overlook the influence of key neighborhoods and overestimate or underestimate the influence of different factors on urban vitality. Using Guangzhou’s central urban area as a case study, this research develops a comprehensive urban vitality assessment system that includes economic, social, cultural, and ecological dimensions, utilizing multi-source data such as POI, Dazhong Dianping, Baidu heatmap, and NDVI. Additionally, the XGBoost-SHAP model is applied to uncover the nonlinear impacts of different built environment factors on neighborhood vitality. The findings reveal that: (1) urban vitality diminishes progressively from the center to the periphery; (2) proximity to Zhujiang New Town is the most critical factor for neighborhood vitality (with a contribution of 0.039), while functional diversity and public facility accessibility are also significant (with contributions ranging from 0.033 to 0.009); (3) built environment factors exert nonlinear influences on neighborhood vitality, notably with a threshold effect for subway station accessibility (feature value of 0.1); (4) there are notable synergistic effects among different built environment dimensions. For example, neighborhoods close to Zhujiang New Town (feature value below 0.12) with high POI density (feature value above 0.04) experience significant positive synergistic effects. These findings can inform targeted policy recommendations for precise urban planning. Full article

Measuring human perception of environmental safety and quantifying the street view elements that affect human perception of environmental safety are of great significance for improving the urban environment and residents’ safety perception. However, domestic large-scale quantitative research on the safety perception of Chinese local cities needs to be deepened. Therefore, this paper chooses Chaoyang District in Beijing as the research area. Firstly, the network safety perception distribution of Chaoyang District is calculated and presented through the CNN model trained based on the perception dataset constructed by Chinese local cities. Then, the street view elements are extracted from the street view images using image semantic segmentation and target detection technology. Finally, the street view elements that affect the road safety perception are identified and analyzed based on LightGBM and SHAP interpretation framework. The results show the following: (1) the overall safety perception level of Chaoyang District in Beijing is high; (2) the number of motor vehicles and the proportion of the area of roads, skies, and sidewalks are the four factors that have the greatest impact on environmental safety perception; (3) there is an interaction between different street view elements on safety perception, and the proportion and number of street view elements have interaction on safety perception; (4) in the sections with the lowest, moderate, and highest levels of safety perception, the influence of street view elements on safety perception is inconsistent. Finally, this paper summarizes the results and points out the shortcomings of the research. Full article

Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) models and workflows are often developed in an ad hoc manner, leading to a limited understanding of interaction effects and model behavior under various conditions. Machine learning (ML) and explainability tools can help CFD process development by providing a means to investigate the interactions in CFD models and pipelines. ML tools in CFD can facilitate the efficient development of new processes, the optimization of current models, and enhance the understanding of existing CFD methods. In this study, the turbulent closure coefficient tuning of the SST k−ω Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) turbulence model was selected as a case study. The objective was to demonstrate the efficacy of ML and explainability tools in enhancing CFD applications, particularly focusing on external aerodynamic workflows. Two variants of the Ahmed body model, with 25-degree and 40-degree slant angles, were chosen due to their availability and relevance as standard geometries for aerodynamic process validation. Shapley values, a concept derived from game theory, were used to elucidate the impact of varying the values of the closure coefficients on CFD predictions, chosen for their robustness in providing clear and interpretable insights into model behavior. Various ML algorithms, along with the SHAP method, were employed to efficiently explain the relationships between the closure coefficients and the flow profiles sampled around the models. The results indicated that model coefficient β* had the greatest overall effect on the lift and drag predictions. The ML explainer model and the generated explanations were used to create optimized closure coefficients, achieving an optimal set that reduced the error in lift and drag predictions to less than 7% and 0.5% for the 25-degree and 40-degree models, respectively. Full article

Rail transit station areas (RSAs) are heralded as a transformative approach to urban planning, emphasizing the integration of transportation, housing, and commercial development to foster sustainable and inclusive cities. This study presents a comprehensive exploration of the interplay between transit-oriented development (TOD) economic performance and social equity in RSAs, employing advanced methodologies, like eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAPs), to decipher the complex relationships between TOD characteristics and social equity outcomes. Focused on Dalian’s urban center, this study integrates diverse datasets, including mobile location, geospatial, and economic price data, to construct a nuanced analysis framework within the NPE (node–place–economic) model. The results indicate that economic factors significantly impact overall social equity, particularly influencing key variables, such as weekday and weekend commuter population densities. Local explanatory plots reveal that economic performance variables associated with transportation development exhibit a broad non-linear impact on social equity in RSAs. This study advances equitable urban development through TOD by stressing the importance of factoring in multiple variables in RSA planning. This approach is vital for creating synergistic effects, fostering equitable spatial planning, and has both theoretical and practical benefits for improving residents’ well-being. Full article

Acute psychological stress (APS) is a complex and multifactorial phenomenon that affects metabolism, necessitating real-time detection and interventions to mitigate its effects on glycemia in people with type 1 diabetes. This study investigates the detection of APS using physiological variables measured by the Empatica E4 wristband and employs explainable machine learning to evaluate the importance of the physiological signals. The extreme gradient boosting model is developed for classification of APS and non-stress (NS) with weighted training, achieving an overall accuracy of 99.93%. The Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) technique is employed to interpret the global importance of the physiological signals, determining the order of importance for the variables from most to least as galvanic skin response (GSR), heart rate (HR), skin temperature (ST), and motion sensors (accelerometer readings). The increase in GSR and HR are positively correlated with the occurrence of APS as indicated by high positive SHAP values. The SHAP technique is also used to explain the local signal importance for particular instances of misclassified samples. The detection of APS can inform multivariable automated insulin delivery systems to intervene to counteract the APS-induced glycemic excursions in people with type 1 diabetes. Full article

Predicting type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) by using phenotypic data with machine learning (ML) techniques has received significant attention in recent years. PyCaret, a low-code automated ML tool that enables the simultaneous application of 16 different algorithms, was used to predict T2DM by using phenotypic variables from the “Nurses’ Health Study” and “Health Professionals’ Follow-up Study” datasets. Ridge Classifier, Linear Discriminant Analysis, and Logistic Regression (LR) were the best-performing models for the male-only data subset. For the female-only data subset, LR, Gradient Boosting Classifier, and CatBoost Classifier were the strongest models. The AUC, accuracy, and precision were approximately 0.77, 0.70, and 0.70 for males and 0.79, 0.70, and 0.71 for females, respectively. The feature importance plot showed that family history of diabetes (famdb), never having smoked, and high blood pressure (hbp) were the most influential features in females, while famdb, hbp, and currently being a smoker were the major variables in males. In conclusion, PyCaret was used successfully for the prediction of T2DM by simplifying complex ML tasks. Gender differences are important to consider for T2DM prediction. Despite this comprehensive ML tool, phenotypic variables alone may not be sufficient for early T2DM prediction; genotypic variables could also be used in combination for future studies. Full article

The goal of this study was to develop a model describing the relationship between the ground-displacement-caused tremors induced by underground mining, and mining and geological factors using the Random Forest Regression machine learning method. The Rudna mine (Poland) was selected as the research area, which is one of the largest deep copper ore mines in the world. The SAR Interferometry methods, Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) and Small Baseline Subset (SBAS), were used in the first case to detect line-of-sight (LOS) displacements, and in the second case to detect cumulative LOS displacements caused by mining tremors. The best-prediction LOS displacement model was characterized by R² = 0.93 and RMSE = 5 mm, which proved the high effectiveness and a high degree of explanation of the variation of the dependent variable. The identified statistically significant driving variables included duration of exploitation, the area of the exploitation field, energy, goaf area, and the average depth of field exploitation. The results of the research indicate the great potential of the proposed solutions due to the availability of data (found in the resources of each mine), and the effectiveness of the methods used. Full article

System-to-system communication via Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) plays a pivotal role in the seamless interaction among software applications and systems for efficient and automated service delivery. APIs facilitate the exchange of data and functionalities across diverse platforms, enhancing operational efficiency and user experience. However, this also introduces potential vulnerabilities that attackers can exploit to compromise system security, highlighting the importance of identifying and mitigating associated security risks. By examining the weaknesses inherent in these APIs using security open-intelligence catalogues like CWE and CAPEC and implementing controls from NIST SP 800-53, organizations can significantly enhance their security posture, safeguarding their data and systems against potential threats. However, this task is challenging due to evolving threats and vulnerabilities. Additionally, it is challenging to analyse threats given the large volume of traffic generated from API calls. This work contributes to tackling this challenge and makes a novel contribution to managing threats within system-to-system communication through API calls. It introduces an integrated architecture that combines deep-learning models, i.e., ANN and MLP, for effective threat detection from large API call datasets. The identified threats are analysed to determine suitable mitigations for improving overall resilience. Furthermore, this work introduces transparency obligation practices for the entire AI life cycle, from dataset preprocessing to model performance evaluation, including data and methodological transparency and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis, so that AI models are understandable by all user groups. The proposed methodology was validated through an experiment using the Windows PE Malware API dataset, achieving an average detection accuracy of 88%. The outcomes from the experiments are summarized to provide a list of key features, such as FindResourceExA and NtClose, which are linked with potential weaknesses and related threats, in order to identify accurate control actions to manage the threats. Full article

The aim of this paper is to explore an effective model for predicting the compressive strength of concrete using machine learning technology, as well as to interpret the model using an interpretable method, which overcomes the limitation of the unknowable prediction processes of previous machine learning models. An experimental database containing 228 samples of the compressive strength of standard cubic specimens was built in this study, and six algorithms were applied to build the predictive model. The results show that the XGBoost model has the highest prediction accuracy among all models, as the R² of the training set and testing set are 0.982 and 0.966, respectively. Further analysis was conducted on the XGBoost model to discuss its applicability. The main steps include the following: (i) obtaining key features, (ii) obtaining trends in the evolution of features, (iii) single-sample analysis, and (iv) conducting a correlation analysis to explore methods of visualizing the variations in the factors that exert influence. The interpretability analyses on the XGBoost model show that the contribution to the compressive strength by each factor is highly in line with the conventional theory. In summary, the XGBoost model proved to be effective in predicting concrete’s compressive strength. Full article

This paper introduces a sophisticated approach for identifying and categorizing broken rotor bars in direct torque-controlled (DTC) induction motors. DTC is implemented in industrial drive systems as a suitable control method to preserve torque control performance, which sometimes shows its impact on fault-representing frequencies. This is because of the DTC’s closed-loop control nature, whichtriesto reduce speed and torque ripples by changing the voltage profile. The proposed model utilizes the modified Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) technique in combination with gradient-boosting decision trees (GBDT) to detect and classify the abnormalities in BRBs at diverse (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%) loading conditions. To prevent overfitting of the proposed model, we used the adaptive fold cross-validation (AF-CV) technique, which can dynamically adjust the number of folds during the optimization process. By employing extensive feature engineering in the original dataset and then applying Shapely Additive exPlanations(SHAP)-based feature selection, our methodology effectively identifies informative features from signals (three-phase current, three-phase voltage, torque, and speed) and motor characteristics. The gradient-boosting decision tree (GBDT) classifier, trained using the given characteristics, extracts consistent and reliable classification performance under different loading circumstances and enables precise and accurate detection and classification of broken rotor bars. The proposed approach (SHAP-Fusion GBDT with AF-CV) is a major advancement in the field of machine learning in detecting motor anomalies at varying loading conditions and proved to be an effective mechanism for preventative maintenance and preventing faults in DTC-controlled induction motors byattaining an accuracy rate of 99% for all loading conditions. Full article