Search Results (41)

Diatraea saccharalis (Fabricius) is a major pest of rice crops, and its early detection—before any visible plant damage occurs—is crucial to prevent yield losses and establish effective, rational control methods. This study aimed to model the infrared-thermal responses of rice cultivars to D. saccharalis infestation levels. Between 2019 and 2020, two experiments were conducted in a controlled environment using the cultivars IR 40 and BR IRGA 409, previously identified as having different resistance reactions. Rice plants grown in pots were manually infested with first-instar larvae of D. saccharalis, ranging from 0 to 10 caterpillars per plant, with the plants maintained in cages covered with voile fabric throughout the trial. After 30 days of infestation, the number of live and dead caterpillars, the number of damaged and healthy stems, and the dry mass of the aerial parts were evaluated. A generalized linear mixed model was applied to the data obtained from leaf temperature as a function of infestation level throughout the infestation period, using the F-test to detect significant differences between cultivars. Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) were fitted to the variables related to resistance. It was observed that leaf surface temperature is related to the level of infestation and could be used to detect susceptibility in IR 40. In both cultivars, leaf temperatures were higher within the first 15 days post-infestation. Full article

Background/Objectives: Static reference intervals (RIs) fail to capture the dynamic changes in bioanalytes. This study aimed to develop gender-based continuous age- and season-related RIs for neuron-specific enolase (NSE) using real-world data and to compare them with partitioned RIs. Methods: The NSE results from 4097 individuals were included after rigorous screening. Partitioned RIs were determined using the Hoffmann method. Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) were selected to develop continuous RIs. Results: The partitioned RIs are as follows: <16.4 µg/L for males aged ≥19 years; <14.47 µg/L for females aged 19–49 years; and <17.25 µg/L for females aged ≥50 years. For continuous RIs, NSE levels in males remain stable with age, while in females, NSE levels evidently increase around the age of 50. Although less impactful than age, seasonal changes still affect NSE levels. Dynamic changes and continuous RIs for NSE are visualized in this study. Conclusions: We developed gender-based continuous age- and season-integrated RIs for NSE in North China, highlighting the variation in NSE levels in females with age and season. Compared to static RIs, continuous RIs are more responsive to NSE, potentially enhancing the precision and individualization of health assessments. Full article

Base cations have declined within European forests due to leaching, accelerated by atmospheric acid deposition. This study aims at predicting the spatial distribution of pseudototal content of Ca, Mg, and K for coniferous, broadleaved and mixed forest stands. A harmonised database of about 7000 samples from the top mineral layer of 0–30 cm from the entire forest areas of the Czech Republic was used. A regression kriging model was used for spatial prediction of the content of the elements. The influence of the covariates used for the prediction was assessed using generalized additive models for location scale and shape (GAMLSS). The variance explained by the model was best for Ca with the R² of 0.32, the R² for Mg was 0.30, and the R² for K was 0.26. Model fitting assessed by the ratio of performance to inter-quartile distance (RPIQ) showed K as the best fit with a value of 1.12, followed by Mg with the value 0.87, and Ca with 0.25. Ca exhibited the best prediction fit for the GAMLSS, compared with K and Mg, based on their AIC matrix values. The predicted spatial distribution in this study provides information for policy and will provide information for the sustainable management of forests. Full article

In this paper, we introduce a new parameterization for the scale mixture of the Rayleigh distribution, which uses a mean linear regression model indexed by mean and precision parameters to model asymmetric positive real data. To test the goodness of fit, we introduce two residuals for the new model. A Monte Carlo simulation study is performed to evaluate the parameter estimation of the proposed model. We compare our proposed model with existing alternatives and illustrate its advantages and usefulness using Gilgais data in R software version 4.2.3 with the gamlss package. Full article

Pavement marking retroreflectivity, a critical factor for safe driving, depends on the characteristics of both the paint and the embedded glass beads. However, traditional methods for predicting pavement marking service life often overlook these materials properties. This study investigates the influence of paint and glass bead characteristics on pavement marking retroreflectivity performance and addresses the characterization of glass bead size distribution by the coefficient of uniformity and curvature. Three field test sites on a Brazilian highway with various paint and glass bead combinations were evaluated. A statistical model, GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape), was adjusted to evaluate the performance of the markings’ retroreflectivity as a function of paint and glass bead characteristics. The model revealed that well-graded glass beads increased retroreflectivity by around 10%, while paints with a higher volume of solids improved service life around 65%. Therefore, the results show that acrylic water-based paints with higher volumes of solids and well-graded glass beads with better shape characteristics should be preferred to improve pavement markings’ retroreflectivity and service life. The statistical model identified the key characteristics with the greatest impact on pavement marking retroreflectivity, offering valuable insights for real-world applications, which will assist pavement marking practitioners and road authorities in selecting appropriate materials to achieve enhanced durability. Full article

Modelling sea conditions is a complex task that requires a comprehensive analysis, considering various influencing factors. Observed and unobserved factors jointly play a role in the definition of sea conditions. Here, we consider finite mixtures of generalized linear additive models for location scale, and shape (GAMLSSs) to capture the effects of both environmental variables and omitted variables, whose effects are summarized using latent variables. The GAMLSS approach is flexible enough to allow for different data features such as non-normality, skewness, heavy tails, etc., and for the definition of a regression model not only for the expected values of the observed process but also for all the other distribution parameters, e.g., the variance. We collected data on multiple sea-related and environmental variables in Ancona (Italy) from two Italian networks: the Sea Level Measurement Network (Rete Mareografica Nazionale, RMN) and the Sea Waves Measurement Network (Rete Ondametrica Nazionale, RON). Our main outcomes were the meteorological tides (often also referred to as “residuals”) and the significant wave height. Atmospheric pressure and wind speed were considered as main drivers of the sea conditions, as well as the fetch associated with wind direction, linking these variables to the outcomes through the definition of multiple linear predictors in a regression framework. Our results confirm the importance of accounting for environmental variables and reveal that their effect is heterogeneous, where heterogeneity is modelled by three distinct mixture components, each capturing different sea conditions. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of sea state dynamics and provide evidence of a clustering structure characterizing different sea conditions. Full article

The hydrological series in the Loess Plateau region has exhibited shifts in trend, mean, and/or variance as the environmental conditions have changed, indicating a departure from the assumption of stationarity. As the variations accumulate, the compound effects caused by the driving variables on runoff variations grow complex and interactive, posing a substantial risk to water security and the promotion of high-quality development in regions or river basins. This study focuses on the Tuwei River Basin in the Loess Plateau, which experiences significant changes in vegetation coverage and minimal human disturbance, and examines the cross-driving relationship between the runoff change and its driving variables (including hydrometeorological and environmental variables). A quantitative statistical analysis method based on the GAMLSS is then developed to estimate the interacting effects of changes in the driving variables and their contribution to runoff changes. Finally, various anticipated scenarios are used to simulate the changes in driving variables and runoff disturbances. The findings indicate the following: (1) The developed GU, LO, and NO distribution-based GAMLSSs provide a notable advantage in effectively capturing the variations in groundwater storage variables, actual evapotranspiration, and underlying surface parameters, as well as accurately estimating the impacts of other relevant variables. (2) The precipitation and groundwater storage variables showed predominantly positive contributions to the runoff change, but actual evapotranspiration had an adverse effect. The changes in underlying surface parameters, particularly since 2000, increase actual evapotranspiration, while decreasing groundwater storage, resulting in a progressive decrease in runoff as their contribution grows. (3) The scenario simulation results reveal that alterations to the underlying surface have a substantial influence on the evolution of runoff in the Tuwei River Basin. Additionally, there are cross-effects between the impact of various driving variables on runoff, potentially compounding the complexity of inconsistent changes in runoff sequences. Full article

We aim to understand the varicella-zoster virus (VZV) antibody levels in children after vaccination and to construct VZV-IgG centile curves and reference values for children aged 1–7 years. From September to October 2023, a total of 806 children were recruited according to the time intervals of 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years after vaccination, as well as age groups. A generalized additive model for location, shape, and scale (GAMLSS) was applied to estimate P₃, P₁₀, P₂₅, P₅₀, P₇₅, P₉₀, and P₉₇ centile reference values of VZV-IgG, and 95% reference intervals were calculated. A total of 785 children were included in the analysis, with an overall positivity rate of 70.3%, a median antibody concentration of 192.05 (82.89–571.14) mIU/mL, and a positivity rate of 57.7% for one dose of vaccine and 84.2% for two doses. Antibody positivity rates at 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years after vaccination were 65.1%, 74.4%, 80.4%, 67.7%, and 63.0%, respectively. The GAMLSS results showed that VZV-IgG had a tendency to increase and then decrease after vaccination, and the second dose of vaccination could significantly increase VZV-IgG. Two doses of varicella vaccine should be administered to children in a timely manner and included in the routine vaccination programs. Full article

This study explored the role of the hydrological regime as a trigger factor for wildlife roadkill along a 22 km road crossing the Taim Wetland, a Ramsar site of international importance in South Brazil. The north–south crossing of BR-471, a federal highway, causes fatalities to numerous animals due to collisions with vehicles. An 11-year long-term time series study encompassing monthly roadkill incidents, water level, and rainfall was analyzed by considering three different periods related to a Wildlife Protection System (WPS): (i) 3 initial years before the WPS implementation (BWPS); (ii) 4 intermediate years after the WPS implementation (AWPS), which includes fences, fauna tunnels, cattle guard stocks, bumps, and speed control; (iii) 4 final years during partial destruction of the WPS (PDWPS). A pseudo-2D full hydrodynamic cell model was employed to fill missing water level data. The model had a good to very good performance (NSE: 0.73 to 0.87; R²: 0.79 to 0.90). The relationship between roadkill incidents and the WPS periods (BWPS, AWPS, and PDWPS) was modeled using Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS), considering rainfall and water level as predictor variables. The analysis revealed a higher incidence of wildlife roadkill in BWPS compared to AWPS and PDWPS, suggesting the effectiveness of the implemented measures. Critical season and interplay between water levels, rainfall, and the roadkill were assessed. Mammals was the most common roadkill class identified (~92%), followed by reptiles (13%) and birds (2%), with no change in these percentual in the BWPS, AWPS, and PDWPS. Among mammals, capybara (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) and coypu (Myocastor coypu) were the most frequent victims (~93% of mammals). Winter, followed by autumn, recorded the highest number of roadkill incidents (>60%), and this pattern remained consistent during the three periods. While rainfall did not emerge as a determining variable for roadkill, water levels above certain thresholds (>3.3 m) drastically diminished the effectiveness of the WPS, mainly due to fauna tunnel submersion. These findings offer valuable insights for enhancing wildlife conservation strategies in this protected area by incorporating hydrological information providing a baseline for designing WPS in similar environments. Full article

This study aimed to determine the influence of time and precipitation as covariates on the flood frequency distribution in the Songhua River tributaries under the nonstationarity assumption and to investigate the possibility of nonstationary models’ application in river management scope demarcation work. Nonstationary flood frequency analysis (NS-FFA) was conducted in three typical basins of the Songhua River (in Northeastern China) based on the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS), and stationary flood frequency analysis was used as a comparison. Under the stationarity assumption, the Pearson type Ⅲ (P-Ⅲ) distribution is the main theoretical distribution for the flood extremum at hydrological stations, followed by a lognormal (LN) distribution. Under the nonstationarity assumption, when time is considered a covariate, the optimal theoretical distribution of the flood extremum is mainly LN (with 63.75%), followed by the Weibull distribution (with 18.75%). When precipitation is considered as a covariate, the optimal theoretical distribution of the flood extremum is mainly LN (with 57.5%). We attempted to apply several FFA methods to calculate the design frequency in this study, referring to the work requirements for river management scope demarcation in three typical basins, and came to the following conclusions. From the simulation results of the p = 10% flood at the export stations of typical basins, it can be seen that time-covariate NS-FFA obtained the best simulation results. Two cases of the simulation under the stationarity assumption are positive, which will lead to a high design scale. The time-covariate GAMLSS in NS-FFA has the advantages of higher calculation accuracy and simpler processes. To better balance construction costs and disaster protection requirements, NS-FFA can be used to determine the design scale of water conservation projects; additionally, it can be used to demarcate the scope of river management. The accuracy of GAMLSS for FFA is also influenced by the complexity of the terrain, with basins with relatively simple terrain having higher calculation accuracy. Full article

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune, neurological, and demyelinating disease of unknown etiology. Neuroinflammation caused by the disease has been associated with air pollution as well as bioclimatic conditions. The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts of air pollution and human thermal discomfort on hospitalizations for multiple sclerosis in Sao Paulo, Brazil, from 2008 to 2015. Generalized Additive Model for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) with Zero Inflated Poisson was used to relate multiple sclerosis hospitalizations in three age groups (less than 30 years old, between 30 and 50 years old, and more than 50 years old) and gender (female and male) with atmospheric pollutants PM₁₀, SO₂, NO₂, NO, and NO_x and thermal discomfort. The results showed that the exposure to an increase of 1 µg/m³ in SO₂ concentration is highly associated with a 10% increase of the risk of MS hospitalization (95% CI: 2–21%) in female patients and a 7.5% (95% CI: 1.5–16%) increase in male patients. PM₁₀ and NO were associated with increased MS risk only for female patients, mainly aged between 30 and 50 years old (2% and 1% increase in hospitalizations, respectively). The cold discomfort was also associated with MS hospitalization, mainly in males (2% increase in hospitalizations; 95% IC: 1–3%). These results are important, since there are few studies that relate air pollution and thermal discomfort with hospitalizations for multiple sclerosis in Brazil. Full article

Introduction. Percentiles of birth weight by gestational age (GA) are an essential tool for clinical assessment and initiating interventions to reduce health risks. Unfortunately, Poland lacks a reference chart for assessing newborn growth based on the national population. This study aimed to establish a national reference range for birth weight percentiles among newborns from singleton deliveries in Poland. Additionally, we sought to compare these percentile charts with the currently used international standards, INTERGROWTH-21 and WHO. Materials and Methods. All singleton live births (n = 3,745,239) reported in Poland between 2010 and 2019 were analyzed. Using the Lambda Mu Sigma (LMS) method, the Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) package, smoothed percentile charts (3–97) covering GA from 23 to 42 weeks were constructed. Results. The mean birth weight of boys was 3453 ± 540 g, and this was higher compared with that of girls (3317 ± 509 g). At each gestational age, boys exhibited higher birth weights than girls. The weight range between the 10th and 90th percentiles was 1061 g for boys and 1016 g for girls. Notably, the birth weight of Polish newborns was higher compared to previously published international growth standards. Conclusion. The reference values for birth weight percentiles established in this study for Polish newborns differ from the global standards and are therefore useful for evaluating the growth of newborns within the national population. These findings hold clinical importance in identifying neonates requiring postbirth monitoring. Full article

Background: In China, sleep disorders have become a public health concern. This study aimed to model the relationship between adverse events and sleep quality, as well as the effect of group step aerobics on sleep quality. Methods: The modeling was built on surveying 2760 16–19-year-old adolescents. The Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) was used to evaluate sleep quality, and the Adolescent Self-rating Life Events Checklist (ASLEC) was used to evaluate adverse events. Adolescents with sleep disorders (PSQI ≥ 8) were randomized into the control (n = 26) and exercise (n = 26) groups. The exercise group participated in 12-week step aerobics, and the 300 min weekly volume is compliant with the WHO physical activity guidelines. Results: The double Poisson distribution was chosen to fit the data. ASLEC had a nonlinear relationship with the PSQI. Participants in the exercise group slept better (p < 0.05) from the eighth week until the end of the study. A random adolescent, therefore, has a 92.5% probability of experiencing improved sleep quality after 12 weeks of step aerobics. Conclusions: Intervention should be implemented before adverse events accumulate. An active lifestyle should be a preparedness strategy for increasing the resilience of adolescent mental health in the face of adversity. Full article

Crop production relies on the use of natural resources and is a source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The present study uses survey data from 250 Polish farms to investigate the eco-efficiency of three main crops: winter wheat, winter triticale, and winter oilseed rape. First, the slack-based Data Envelopment Analysis (SBM-DEA) model with undesirable output (GHG emissions) was applied. In the next step, the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) was used to explain the efficiency scores. The calculated GHG emissions per hectare of crop were 1.9 tCO₂e, 3.2 tCO₂e, and 4.3 tCO₂e for winter triticale, wheat, and oilseed rape, respectively. Fully efficient farms used significantly less fertilizer (13.6–29.3%) and fuel (16.6–25.3%) while achieving higher yields (14.4–23.2%) and lower GHG emissions per hectare (10.8–17.7%). In practice, this means that efficient farms had a 20–32% lower carbon footprint per kilogram of yield than inefficient farms, depending on the crop. It was also shown that increasing the size of the cultivated area contributed to improving efficiency scores, while no conclusive evidence was found for an influence of economic size or farm type on their performance. Weather conditions had a significant impact on the efficiency score. In general, higher temperatures and precipitation in spring had a positive effect on efficiency, while an opposite relationship was observed in summer. Full article

Construction of an integrated drought index is a fundamental task to conducting drought disaster risk management and developing drought resistance planning strategies. Given the evident non-consistent features during the drought evolution process, firstly, the GAMLSS approach was utilized to construct multiple combination scenarios of time-variant parameters and corresponding probability distribution functions. Then, the time-variant comprehensive drought index integrating the variable characteristics of precipitation and soil moisture was established by means of the copula function. Finally, the reliability of the time-variant comprehensive drought index was verified through its application in frequency analysis and return period determination of drought hazard system in Huaibei Plain, China. The application results demonstrated that: (1) The variation of the time-variant integrated drought indicator presented strong consistency with both soil moisture and precipitation during historical years in Huaibei Plain. (2) The overall variation of the drought hazard system characterized by drought duration and severity presented a gradual mitigation trend from west to east and north to south in Huaibei Plain, which agrees with the geographic differences and water resources availability distribution features. (3) Drought recognition results, including the frequency of drought events and typical drought processes with extreme grades, are in agreement with the practical statistics and observed data series. On the whole, the proposed time-variant integrated drought indicator is capable of extracting complex variation characteristics within the drought hazard evolution process, and can be further applied in drought monitoring, recognition and assessment research fields. Full article