A sizable bloc of Americans are unimpressed with their two main choices in November’s presidential election, but that hasn’t translated into firm support for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Just 5% of US adults say they’ll “definitely” vote for the 70-year-old scion Nov. 5, with another 13% saying that they would “probably” vote for the ex-environmental lawyer and vaccine skeptic, according to a new poll from Monmouth University.
The level of definite or potential support for Kennedy is down three percentage points from December, when 21% told Monmouth they would probably or definitely back the independent.
Among the 17% nationwide who have an unfavorable opinion of both Biden and Trump — so-called “double haters” — just 15% say they will definitely vote for RFK Jr., while another 23% say they will probably vote for him.
“Support for Kennedy is not particularly strong even among voters who dislike both Biden and Trump. If he can’t score a decisive win with these voters, it’s unclear what role he can play in this election other than as a spoiler,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
“The poll results suggest that the Kennedy effect is minimal,” Murray added. “If the current situation holds, he would play a spoiler role only in a very close contest. Of course, everything is lining up for this election to be just that.”
Trump leads Biden by a single point in a head-to-head ballot test (44% to 43%), a matchup with definite RFK Jr. voters included (43% to 42%) and with all potential Kennedy voters included (38% to 37%), suggesting Kennedy is living up to his aim to be a “spoiler” for both major candidates.
The poll also shows that fewer than four in 10 Americans (39%) are “very” or “somewhat” fired up for a rematch of the 2020 contest, with nearly two-thirds of Republicans (63%) saying they were enthusiastic compared to 36% of Democrats and 27% of independents
However, the excitement level has surged from December, when just over one-quarter of Americans (27%) said they were “very” or “somewhat” enthusiastic about Biden-Trump, part II.
On Friday, Trump unleashed on Kennedy, blasting him as a “Democrat Plant” and “a Radical Left Liberal.”
Nationally, in a five-way matchup between Trump, Biden, Kennedy, Cornel West, and Jill Stein, the 45th president sports a 1.6 percentage point lead, per the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate.
At the moment, Kennedy is averaging 10.6% support in RCP’s national aggregate. He will need 15% support in select polling in order to qualify for the debate stage in the fall.
In the Monmouth poll, a higher percentage of registered voters held favorable views of Trump (43%), than Biden (41%) while fewer held unfavorable views of the former president (57%) than his successor (58%).
By comparison, RFK Jr. is more of an unknown quantity, with 35% holding a favorable view of him and 40% holding an unfavorable view, while 26% said they hadn’t heard of him, or had no opinion.
The Monmouth poll sampled 746 registered voters April 18-22, with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.3 percentage points.
