2010 Minnesota gubernatorial election
County results Precinct results Dayton: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%Emmer: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%Horner: 30–40% 40–50% 60–70% >90%Tie: 30–40% 40–50% 50% No votes
The 2010 Minnesota gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 to elect the 40th Governor of the U.S. state of Minnesota for a four-year term to begin in January 2011. The general election was contested by the major party candidates State Representative Tom Emmer (R –Delano ), former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (DFL ), and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner. After a very close race, Dayton was elected governor.[ 1] Emmer would be elected to the United States House of Representatives four years later.[ 2]
This was the first time the Democrats won the governorship since Rudy Perpich won re-election in 1986 . With a margin of 0.4%, this election was the closest race of the 2010 gubernatorial election cycle .
After incumbent Governor Tim Pawlenty announced in June 2009 that he would not seek a third term,[ 3] the field was open for Republicans to seek their party's endorsement. At the Minnesota GOP's off-year state convention in October 2009, former Representative Marty Seifert took first place in a straw poll with 37% of the vote. Representative Tom Emmer took second place with 23%, Patricia Anderson had 14%, and the rest of the participating candidates received less than 10% each.[ 4] [ 5]
Seifert had another victory in the February 2 precinct caucuses, winning a statewide straw poll of caucus attendees with 50% of the vote, followed by Emmer with 39%. None of the other candidates got beyond single digits.[ 6] Delegates to the state convention, however, were more closely divided between Emmer and Seifert than the initial straw poll indicated. Both camps claimed a delegate lead throughout the process leading up to the state convention, but the outcome was uncertain and was ultimately decided on the convention floor.[ 7]
On April 30, Emmer won the Republican endorsement at the party's state convention in Minneapolis . After Emmer won 56% of the vote on the second ballot, Seifert withdrew from the race and threw his support to Emmer. Emmer then chose Metropolitan Council member Annette Meeks as his running mate for lieutenant governor.[ 8]
Emmer won the August 10 primary, earning a spot on the November ballot.[ 9]
Patricia Anderson , former State Auditor [ 17]
Bill Haas, former state representative, former mayor of Champlin [ 18]
David Hann , state senator[ 19]
Phil Herwig, activist[ 4] [ 20]
Mike Jungbauer , state senator, former mayor of East Bethel [ 21]
Paul Kohls , state representative[ 22]
Marty Seifert , state representative, former State House Minority Leader
Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary[ edit ]
The list of candidates seeking the DFL's nomination was long going into the February 2 caucuses, with over 11 candidates having submitted their names for the candidate preference ballot. Former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton notably declined to be included on the ballot. Minneapolis Mayor R. T. Rybak won the straw poll with 21.8% of the vote, with State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher receiving 20.1%, and "uncommitted" receiving 14.7%. The other each candidates received single-digit support.[ 33] [ 34]
Former State Senator Steve Kelley dropped out of the race after a disappointing result in the straw poll. State Senator Tom Bakk also dropped out on March 20 after announcing at the St. Louis County Convention that he believed his chances of winning were slim.
On April 24, the DFL State Convention was held in Duluth . State Senator John Marty withdrew from the race after seeing lower than expected support on the first ballot, and State Representative Tom Rukavina withdrew after the fourth ballot, endorsing Kelliher. State Representative Paul Thissen withdrew after the fifth ballot, and before the results of the sixth ballot were announced, Rybak withdrew as well, endorsing Kelliher.[ 35] Kelliher was subsequently endorsed by the convention. Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner , who had not sought the DFL endorsement but was planning to run in the primary, dropped out two days later. That left Kelliher facing Dayton and former State House Minority Leader Matt Entenza in the August primary.
Shortly after the end of the 2010 legislative term, all three major DFL candidates had announced their choices for lieutenant governor. On May 21, Kelliher announced that John Gunyou would be her running mate. Gunyou is Minnetonka City Manager and was state finance commissioner in Republican Governor Arne Carlson 's administration.[ 36] On May 24, Dayton announced Yvonne Prettner Solon as his running mate. Solon is a psychologist and three-term state senator.[ 37] On May 27, Entenza announced Robyne Robinson as his running mate. Robinson is a small-business owner and former TV anchor.[ 38]
Dayton narrowly won the August 10 primary, earning the right to serve as his party's nominee.[ 39] He was formally endorsed by the DFL on August 21.[ 40]
Candidate Mark Dayton speaking at a debate, 2009
Results by county: 30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
At 11:50 p.m. on primary night, Dayton took the lead from Kelliher, who had held an ever-shrinking lead since the polls closed.
Independence primary [ edit ]
On Sunday, May 9, 2010, Tom Horner won the endorsement of the Independence Party for governor. His main opponent, Rob Hahn, said he would contest the primary.[ 53]
Horner won the August 10 primary, defeating Hahn to earn a place on the November ballot.[ 9]
Early polls showed Emmer even with his likely DFL opponents, with Horner trailing far behind, and a large percentage of voters undecided.[ 63] [ 64] [ 65] As the race progressed, polls showed the candidates even, or Dayton with a small but significant lead.[ 66] The nonpartisan Cook Political Report , CQ Politics and pollster Rasmussen Reports rated the gubernatorial election a tossup,[ 67] [ 68] [ 69] [ 70] [ 71] while New York Times political statistician Nate Silver gave Dayton an 86% chance of winning and Emmer 14%.[ 72]
Dayton led Emmer at the close of balloting by 8770 votes (0.42%).[ 73] The margin of victory was small enough to trigger an automatic recount under state law, but analysts generally thought it unlikely that Dayton's lead would be overturned.[ 74]
Dayton became just the fourth victorious Minnesota Democrat to win a gubernatorial election with a Democrat in the White House in 28 cycles.[ 75]
Graphical summary
Poll source
Dates administered
Margion of Error
Tom Emmer (R)
Mark Dayton (DFL)
Tom Horner (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling
Oct. 27 – 29, 2010
±2.2%
40%
43%
15%
3%
SurveyUSA
Oct. 24 – 27, 2010
±4%
38%
39%
13%
9%
Minnesota Public Radio
Oct. 21 – 25, 2010
±3.6%
29%
41%
11%
20%
St. Cloud State University
Oct. 10 – 21, 2010
±5.0%
30%
40%
19%
10%
Minnesota Poll
Oct. 18 – 21, 2010
±3.9%
34%
41%
13%
12%
Rasmussen Reports
Oct. 20, 2010
±4.0%
41%
44%
10%
5%
Survey USA Archived 2010-10-17 at the Wayback Machine
Oct. 11 – 13, 2010
±3.7%
37%
42%
14%
7%
Rasmussen Reports
Oct. 6, 2010
±4%
38%
40%
15%
7%
Humphrey Institute/MPR
Sep. 22 – 26, 2010
±3.6%
27%
38%
16%
19%
Minnesota Poll
Sep. 20–23, 2010
±4.1%
30%
39%
18%
13%
Rasmussen Reports
Sep. 22, 2010
±4%
42%
41%
9%
2%
Survey USA
Sep. 12 – 14, 2010
±3.9%
36%
38%
18%
4%
Humphrey Institute/MPR
Aug. 31, 2010
±5.3%
34%
34%
13%
19%
Rasmussen Reports
Aug. 12, 2010
±4.0%
36%
45%
10%
10%
Survey USA
Aug. 2 – 4, 2010
±2.7%
32%
46%
9%
13%
Minnesota Poll [permanent dead link ]
Jul. 26 – 29, 2010
±4.3%
30%
40%
13%
17%
Rasmussen Reports
Jul. 19, 2010
±4.5%
36%
40%
10%
14%
Survey USA
Jun. 14 – 16, 2010
±2.5%
35%
38%
12%
15%
Decision Resources, Ltd.
May 28 – Jun. 2, 2010
±3.5%
28%
40%
18%
14%
Rasmussen Reports
May 24, 2010
±4.5%
37%
35%
12%
16%
Humphrey Institute/MPR
May 13 – 16, 2010
±5.8%
31%
35%
9%
25%
Survey USA
May 3 – 5, 2010
±4.1%
42%
34%
9%
15%
Rasmussen Reports
Mar. 10, 2010
±3%
35%
38%
7%
20%
Hypothetical polling
With Entenza
Poll source
Dates administered
Tom Emmer (R)
Matt Entenza (DFL)
Tom Horner (I)
Undecided
Sampling error
Survey USA
August 2–4, 2010
33%
38%
12%
17%
2.7%
Minnesota Poll [permanent dead link ]
July 26–29, 2010
31%
36%
15%
17%
4.3%
Rasmussen Reports
July 19, 2010
36%
37%
12%
15%
4.5%
Survey USA
June 14–16, 2010
37%
33%
12%
18%
2.5%
Decision Resources, Ltd.
May 28 – June 2, 2010
27%
34%
19%
20%
3.5%
Rasmussen Reports
May 24, 2010
37%
34%
12%
17%
4.5%
Humphrey Institute / MPR
May 13–16, 2010
32%
28%
11%
29%
5.8%
Survey USA
May 3–5, 2010
42%
31%
10%
16%
4.1%
Rasmussen Reports
March 10, 2010
37%
28%
8%
26%
3%
With Kelliher
Poll source
Dates administered
Tom Emmer (R)
Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL)
Tom Horner (I)
Undecided
Sampling error
Survey USA
August 2–4, 2010
33%
39%
12%
17%
2.7%
Minnesota Poll [permanent dead link ]
July 26–29, 2010
29%
38%
13%
18%
4.3%
Rasmussen Reports
July 19, 2010
35%
40%
11%
14%
4.5%
Survey USA
June 14–16, 2010
35%
33%
12%
21%
2.5%
Decision Resources, Ltd.
May 28 – June 2, 2010
28%
38%
17%
17%
3.5%
Rasmussen Reports
May 24, 2010
38%
36%
11%
15%
4.5%
Humphrey Institute / MPR
May 13–16, 2010
32%
29%
10%
30%
5.8%
Survey USA
May 3–5, 2010
41%
33%
9%
17%
4.1%
Rasmussen Reports
March 10, 2010
37%
34%
8%
19%
3%
With Pawlenty
Source
Date
Tim Pawlenty
Margaret Anderson Kelliher
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA
May 20, 2009
51%
34%
With Emmer
Source
Date
Tom Emmer
Margaret Anderson Kelliher
Rasmussen Reports
March 10, 2010
37%
34%
With Seifert
Source
Date
Marty Seifert
Margaret Anderson Kelliher
Rasmussen Reports
March 10, 2010
39%
35%
With Coleman
Swing by county
Democratic — +10-12.5%
Democratic — +7.5-10%
Democratic — +5-7.5%
Democratic — +2.5-5%
Democratic — +0-2.5%
Republican — +0-2.5%
Republican — +2.5-5%
Republican — +5-7.5%
Republican — +7.5-10%
Republican — +10-12.5%
Trend by county
Democratic — +10-12.5%
Democratic — +7.5-10%
Democratic — +5-7.5%
Democratic — +2.5-5%
Democratic — +0-2.5%
Republican — +0-2.5%
Republican — +2.5-5%
Republican — +5-7.5%
Republican — +7.5-10%
Republican — +10-12.5%
County Results for the Independence Party: <9% 9-10% 10-11% 11-12% 12-13% 13-14% 14-15% 15-16% 16%<
Certified Results After Recount [ edit ]
The recount was carried out by the Minnesota Secretary of State , Mark Ritchie , as part of a State Canvassing Board, which consists of the secretary of state, two justices of the Minnesota Supreme Court, and two judges of a Minnesota district court.[ 81] The vote totals were not changed, and Dayton was declared the governor-elect.
Olmsted County, Minnesota officials recounting votes on November 29, 2010
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican [ edit ]
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic [ edit ]
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