Risk scenarios
FMIs get busy, as supervisors circle
Via new roles and controls, exchanges and clearers hope to “get ahead” of regulatory wave
Ukraine nuclear scenarios: black enough for you?
A nuclear strike on Ukraine would open the door to the pit; our readers guessed how markets would fare, with surprising results
US midterm election scenarios: a fright after Halloween
Republican control of Congress could deal “a sharp shock to markets”, analysis suggests
Interest rate scenarios: skinny-dipping with the Fed
As US rates march upwards, Risk.net readers offer deeply diverging forecasts on the impact for markets through to 2024
Inflation scenarios, pt II: end of the party
Whether inflation rises or falls, crowdsourced scenarios forecast huge range of outcomes
Climate scenarios: carbon price shock sees asset prices slump
Crowdsourced scenario analysis suggests very few sectors safe from a post-COP carbon price pop
Inflation scenarios: tail risks loom for US equities
Portfolios could lose more than one-third of their value if inflation stays high, suggests crowdsourced scenario exercise
US election scenarios: meltdown fears if poll contested
Crowdsourced election scenarios show sharp falls and correlation breaks if Trump challenges results
Covid scenarios, pt II: apocalypse how?
Second crowdsourced scenario exercise reveals polarised views in equities and FX
Covid scenarios: finding the worst worst-case
As pandemic trashes historical data, a Risk.net tie-up with Ron Dembo’s new outfit tests promise of polling
Q&A: Ron Dembo on crowd-spotting black swans
Veteran quant argues large groups are better at gauging extreme uncertainty than small teams of experts