Central banks should use the leeway provided by moderating inflation and easing labour market to cut policy rates. The timing and scope of policy rate reductions will need to remain data-dependent and be carefully judged to ensure that underlying inflationary pressures are durably contained. In Japan, by contrast, further mild increases in policy rates are called for.
Economic policy
Economic policy encompasses a broad range of strategies employed by governments to optimise economic performance. It includes areas such as fiscal policy, which deals with government spending and revenues; monetary policy, focused on controlling the money supply and interest rates; structural reform, aimed at enhancing long-term economic efficiency and competitiveness; and regulatory reform, which focuses on updating and streamlining economic regulations.
Turning the corner
Governments face significant fiscal challenges from higher debt and the sizeable additional spending pressures arising from multiple sources: ageing populations, climate change mitigation and adaptation measures plans to raise defense spending, and the need to finance new reforms). Stronger near-term efforts to contain spending growth and enhance revenues are needed to ensure debt sustainability and rebuild fiscal buffers.
Improving competition-enhancing reforms could significantly raise GDP per capita and enhance living standards over the long term. The OECD’s Product Market Regulation indicators (PMRs) measure how well countries’ regulations foster competition, both across the whole economy and in specific sectors, clearly highlighting the urgency for pro-competition reforms across both OECD member and selected non-member economies.
Context
Growth is expected to stabilise
Global growth is expected to stabilise over the projection period at 3.2% in both 2024 and 2025, broadly in line with the average pace observed through the first half of this year. Growth was robust in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and Spain. Domestic demand has buoyed activity in Brazil, India, and Indonesia.
Inflation has continued to decline
Headline inflation has continued to decline in most OECD countries, partly due to further declines in food price inflation and low, or negative, energy and goods price inflation. As a result, inflation is now at or close to target in about four-fifths of OECD economies. Nonetheless, services price inflation is still proving sticky and has abated only slowly.
Headline inflation in the G20 is projected to fall from 6.1% in 2023, to 5.4% in 2024, and 3.3% in 2025. Core inflation in the G20 advanced economies is anticipated to ease from 4.2% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. Inflation in the emerging-market economies is projected to remain generally higher than in the advanced economies, while also easing gradually, however with exceptions.
Country snapshots
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Related publications
Latest insights
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