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Center for Microeconomic Data

SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS

Consumers’ Inflation Expectations Unchanged at Short- and
Longer-Term Horizons

Consumers’ one- and five-year-ahead inflation expectations remained unchanged in August at 3.0 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively, according to the latest Survey of Consumer Expectations. Median inflation expectations at the three-year-ahead horizon rebounded somewhat from July, increasing to 2.5 percent from 2.3 percent. Labor market expectations came in mixed, but largely stable, with median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth increasing to 2.9 percent from 2.7 percent, just above a twelve-month trailing average of 2.8 percent. The mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now increased to 37.7 percent from 36.6 percent in July; however, the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 13.3 percent, falling below the twelve-month trailing average of 13.7 percent.

For more details:
Press Release: Consumers’ Inflation and Labor Market Expectations Remain Largely Stable

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SCE Credit Access
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SCE Household
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SCE Housing
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SCE Labor Market
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SCE Public Policy
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Fielding the Survey

The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.

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