Like I was saying, spoilers in comments… The image is from back in the first day…
WAU so if I understand it correctly, current standings are:
3-losses: Aonishiki, Atamifuji 4-losses: Onosato, Kirishima, Abi, Oshoumi.and last-day matchups are:
Kotozakura vs Aonishiki Oshoumi vs Atamifuji Hoshoryu vs Onosato Kirishima vs Abiso in terms of outcomes looks like we have a 4-bit binary number, right?
click here to see all possibilities
- Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE
- Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN
- Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE
- Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN
- Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE
- Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN
- Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE
- Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN
- Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE
- Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN
- Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE
- Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN
- Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE
- Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN
- Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE
- Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN
so we can partition this up into a couple different scenarios:
Scenario 1: Aonishiki Wins and Atamifuji Loses: In this case, Aonishiki is the champion.
- Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE
- Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN
- Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE
- Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN
Scenario 2: Atamifuji Wins and Aonishiki Loses: In this case, Atamifuji is the champion.
- Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE
- Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN
- Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE
- Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN
Scenario 3: Both Atamifuji and Aonishiki Win: In this case, Atamifuji and Aonishiki battle each other in a playoff.
- Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE
- Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN
- Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE
- Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN
Scenario 4: Aonishiki and Atamifuji Lose, Onosato Loses: In the remaining scenarios, Oshoumi wins, because he was fighting Atamifuji (who loses in the remaining scenarios). If Onosato loses, then we have a [correction] 4-way tie between Aonishiki, Atamifuji, Oshoumi and the winner of Kirishima vs Abi, to be resolved with a series of play-offs.
- Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE
- Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN
Scenario 5: Aonishiki and Atamifuji Lose, Onosato Wins: And in this last scenario, Onosato wins and we have a [correction] FIVE way play-off between Aonishiki, Atamifuji, Onosato, Oshoumi, and the winner of Kirishima vs Abi. MAXIMUM SUMO EXCITEMENT!!!
- Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE
- Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN
He did the math.
What’s also interesting is the ordering of the championship-relevant bouts:
- Oshoumi vs Atamifuji: this is the first relevant bout.
- IF Atamifuji wins, then there will be either 1 or 0 playoffs (depending on how Aonishiki does).
- IF Atamifuji loses, either Aonishiki will be champion, or there will be a 4 or 5 bout playoff. (see below).
- then there are 8 non-championship-relevant bouts (including my faves Shishi, Ura, and Takayasu). Of interest here: Oshoma vs Yoshinofuji, and Onokatsu vs Wakamotoharu, all of which are at 7-7, so this will determine which two of the four get their kashi-koshi (more wins than losses).
- Kirishima vs Abi: this is the next championship-relevant bout. This tells us: IF there is a 4 or 5-person playoff, which of these two will take part in it. If Atamifuji won, then this bout is not championship-relevant.
- Kotozakura vs Aonishiki: This is the big one of the night.
- IF Aonishiki wins AND Atamifuji lost, then Aonishiki is champion
- IF Aonishiki wins AND Atamifuji won, then there will be a 2-person playoff
- IF Aonishiki loses AND Atamifuji won, then Atamifuji is champion
- IF Aonishiki loses AND Atamifuji lost, then there will be either a 4- or 5- person playoff
- Hoshoryu vs Onosato: IF Aonishiki AND Atamifuji both lost, then there will be a multi-person playoff. This will determine whether it’s a 5-person playoff (if Onosato wins) or a 4-person playoff (if Onosato loses). Otherwise, it’s not championship-relevant.
A NIGHT OF HYPE!!! idk about y’all, but I’m planning on staying up.
The hype is real.
- Oshoumi vs Atamifuji: this is the first relevant bout.
My guess, Hosh > Ono, Ao > Koto (but K looks good this basho!), Atami > Oshou –> Ao > Atami in playoff.
The biggest/closest/consequentialest match is Aonishiki vs Kotozakura. I don’t think they’ve met previously without K being injured, so it could really go either way.
But yeah, like uh, wow, there are some permutations here, man.
I’m cheering for Aonishiki. I’m an Onosato fan too, but for him to win he’d have to fight at least 3 bouts in a row, and that’s gotta be bad for his injury.
I also want everyone to win, but most of all for Aonishiki. If Aonishiki wins 2 in a row, and his shin-ozeki basho, that’s spectacular. If Atamifuji wins, yeah cool I’ll be happy. If Kirishima wins, holy shit does he deserve it! Actually I think that’s my most preferred result, but Aonishiki seems so much more likely at this point.
now
can there be 3 yokozunas?
Yes there can be 3 yokozunas. As I understand it, it’s very unlikely for Aonishiki to be yokozuna after this tournament, but after next tournament it is possible depending on what happens. See here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Makuuchi#Criteria_for_promotion
indeed
The de facto standard is to win two consecutive championships as ōzeki or an equivalent performance.
