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Kenaikan harga minyak semenjak 2003

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Crude oil prices, 2004-2006 (not adjusted for inflation)
U.S. Retail Gasoline prices, 2004-2006 (not adjusted for inflation)
Oil prices from 1861-2006 in dollars of the day (black) and 2006 dollars (orange). Source: [12] and other publications.

Harga piawai crude oil pada NYMEX ialah dibawah $25/barrel pada September 2003, tetapi pada August 11, 2005, ia naik ke atas $60/barrel, dan topped out pada harga rakaman $78.40 tiap barrel pada July 13, 2006. Experts attributed the spike in prices to a variety of factors, including North Korea's missile launches, the Crisis between Israel and Lebanon, Iranian nuclear brinkmanship, and reports from the U.S department of energy showing a decline in petroleum reserves.[1] While oil prices are considerably higher than a year ago, they are still roughly $14 from exceeding the inflation-adjusted peak of the 1980 shock, when prices exceeded what would today be equivalent to $90 a barrel.[2]

Di Amerika Syarikat harga-herga gasoline mencapai tinggi seluruh-waktu sewaktu minggu pertama di September 2005 selepas peristiwa dukacitanya Hurricane Katrina. Harga retail sederhana pada masa itu $3.04 tiap gallon.[3] The previous high was $2.38 per gallon in March 1981, which would be $3.20 per gallon after adjustment for inflation. In comparison, the average retail price of a litre of petrol in the United Kingdom (gasoline in American English) was 86.4p on 19 October 2006.[4] This equates to £3.29 per U.S. gallon, or US$6.13 per U.S. gallon.

Supply

There are a number of reasons why oil traders feel that oil supplies might be reduced. One of the most important is growing turbulence in the Middle East, the world's largest oil-producing region. The war in Iraq, Iran's nuclear program, and internal instability in Saudi Arabia could all lead to a dramatic fall in the supply of oil. Outside the Middle East other oil producers with their own issues have caused worry for investors, such as the strikes and political problems in Venezuela and potential instability in West Africa.

In late August, 2005, Hurricane Katrina crippled the supply-flow from off-shore rigs in the Gulf Coast, the largest source of oil for the domestic U.S. market. Short-term shutdowns because of power outages knocked out two major on-shore pipelines, and at least 10% of the nation's refining capacity was not operating in the wake of the storm. Gas prices in the region, normally 70 cents below the national average, were at $3.12 on August 30.[5]

World supply (specification) came in at 83 million barrels a day during 2004 in department of energy EIA calculations ([13]). This rate of increase is faster than that of any other date in the past.[perlu rujukan] Despite this increase in supply, prices have continued to rise, leading to increasing discussion of peak oil and the possibility that the future may see a reduced supply of oil.

Even if oil supplies themselves are not reduced, some experts feel the easily accessible sources of light sweet crude are almost exhausted and in the future the world will depend on more expensive sources of heavy oil and alternatives.

The short term price of oil is partially controlled by the OPEC cartel and the oligopoly of major oil companies. One other important cause is the United States dollar's slump against the Euro. Since oil is traded in dollars, the price must increase for OPEC to maintain purchasing power in Europe.

Causes

Some people and news agencies argue that labor strikes, hurricane threats to oil platforms, fires and terrorist threats at refineries, and other general problems are not responsible for the higher gas prices. Critics argue that these problems periodically push price higher, but that they are not fundamental or long term enough to cause the large jump in gas price. A more fundamental problem that some believe is causing the price to rise is the probability of peak oil already or soon being reached. Not only is there a limited amount of fossil fuel which has been burnt as fuel, but the remaining accessible supply will be consumed more rapidly by a growing, industrializing Third World. What fuel remains will be more difficult to extract since the easiest wells have been tapped. Producing many remaining known reserves is more technically difficult and therefore more expensive, so it is only economically feasable in high oil price environments. The remaining sources have not been discovered or at this point in time are unable to be utilized due to political turmoil or other reasons of instability in the countries of discovery.

Others believe that the price of oil is almost entirely speculative, and that the increase in price is due to oil speculation extending into the long term. These people argue that speculators foresee increasing demand, decreasing supply, or both, leading to a long term increase in the price of oil. If these speculators are wrong, current prices may actually be a price bubble, and the price could thus collapse. A July 14, 2005 Morgan Stanley report[6] suggests that opinions of the oil market could burst just like a bubble if indications of declining Asian demand continue.

Still others suggest that the main issue is a lack of energy efficiency in general. These analysts believe the problem would be solved by increasing the efficiency of factories, homes, transportation and easing the demand crunch by using less energy and more renewable energy.

The United States has the largest demand for oil by far, using around 25% of the world's total oil production and 40% of the world's gasoline production-- with only about 5% of the total world population. Due to depleted domestic reserves and expanding demand each year, aproximately 2/3 of the oil and gasoline consumed by the U.S. is being imported from foreign countries. This dependency leaves the U.S. highly vulnerable to any supply disruption and/or ratcheting up of prices.

History

Spring and summer 2005 increase

Overnight gas price hike shown at a Chicago area BP station (background). The Shell station (foreground) has not yet posted the 12 cent price hike.

After retreating for several months during the winter of 2004/2005, prices rose to new highs in March 2005. The price of light, sweet crude oil on NYMEX has been above $50/barrel since March 5, 2005. On March 16, 2005, the price surpassed the October 2004 high of $55.17 to close at $56.46. In April 2005 the price began to fall, reaching $53.32 on April 9. It then reversed course and headed to an all time high of $58.28, driven mainly by lingering concerns of a prolonged weak dollar. In June 2005 crude oil prices surged to record highs eventually breaking the psychological barrier of $60.

Hurricane Katrina (late summer 2005)

Hurricane Katrina had a major impact on oil and gas prices, especially within the United States. The Gulf Coast is home to a major portion of America's refining capacity. The port of Louisiana is one of its most important inlets for oil imports, and the gulf itself is a major oil producer. Port Fourchon has also suffered long term damage. Louisiana Offshore Oil Port has not.[7]

Gas prices soared after the closing down of the major pipelines connecting the gas of the Louisiana region to the entire East Coast. In Stockbridge, Georgia, regular gas prices came to $5.87 at a BP station. Shortages were feared or experienced in several states including Tennessee,[8] Alabama,[9] and South Carolina.[10] Many of these were blamed on panic buying. Airports began to report shortages in aviation fuel on 2 September.[11] A shortage could lead to a decrease in food production.[12] Higher prices for heating oil and natural gas were expected as the winter heating season set in.[13]

On 5:10 p.m. EDT, on 31 August, President Bush announced the Energy Department was approving loans from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve; additionally, the EPA announced a nationwide waiver on fuel blend requirements. Bush stated, "This storm has disrupted the ability to make gasoline and deliver gasoline," and "This is going to be a difficult road."[14] Many people have observed however that stores of crude oil do little to address inadequate refinery and distribution capacity due to environmental and NIMBY concerns.

In order to stabilize world energy supplies, the International Energy Agency offered to sell two million barrels of crude oil and other refined products from national supplies. These supplies would begin entering the U.S. markets within two weeks of 2 September.[15][16] The press release from the IEA states, "... the implications for the oil market are global."[17]

Winter 2005-2006 increase

On January 17, 2006 crude oil for February delivery rose by $2.38 (3.7%) to $66.30 a barrel. This was the highest increase since early October 2005. Observers believe that violence in Nigeria, and Iran's friction with the West are responsible for this price increase. Continued concerns about Iran raised the price to $68.38 on January 31.[18] However, due to rising stockpiles of crude oil and an abnormally warm winter, as of February 14, the price of crude had hit a 2006 low of $59.60.[19]

Spring/Summer 2006 increase

Regular gasoline prices were averaging $3.04/gallon [20] across the U.S. in August, 2006. Adjusted for inflation, this U.S. price is the highest in 25 years. The all-time U.S. inflation-adjusted record is approximately $3.20/gallon, set in March, 1981.[21]

In July 2006, crude oil for August delivery traded over $79/bbl,[22] an all-time record. The early and mid-summer 2006 runup is attributable to increasing gasoline consumption, up 1.9% year over year in the U.S., and geopolitical tensions as North Korea launched missiles, the Iran nuclear standoff drags on, and Israel and Lebanon went to war. The early spring 2006 runup in prices has been attributed to a number of factors, including continuing supply disruptions from the summer 2005 hurricane season (18% of Gulf Coast supplies were still off-line in spring '06), supply disruptions from the changeover from MTBE to ethanol, lingering concerns over Iran and Nigeria, and anticipation of higher summer demand. Hostilities in Nigeria alone have caused a supply disruption of 675,000 bbl/day.[23] On August 7, BP shut down its Prudhoe Bay, AK field due to pipeline corrosion, bringing supply down by up to 400,000 bbl/day or about 8% of total U.S. production.[24]

"Rationing by price" is a reality because near-stagnant world crude supply is not meeting ever-increasing demand, as witnessed by oil shortages in Africa, India, and China. It is possible that the apex of peak oil production has or will soon arrive, and an energy crisis is possible in the U.S., by far the world's biggest oil consuming nation. With approximately 5% of the world's population, the U.S. uses about 25% of the world's oil and 40% of the world's gasoline produced each day -- about 2/3 of which are imports. This dependency leaves the U.S. highly vulnerable to any supply disruption and/or ratcheting up of prices.

The Iranian situation is particularly troubling, as the possibility of an attack on Iran by Western powers looms due to their alleged nuclear weapons ambitions. Such an attack could create serious oil supply disruptions, because Iran sits on the eastern flank of the Straits of Hormuz, the channel in which almost all of the oil from the Persian Gulf flows through on tankers to industrialized nations. Iran could take measures to disrupt that supply if they are attacked. A blockage of the Straits of Hormuz would disrupt a significant percentage of world oil supplies, and could potentially send oil prices to $100.00/barrel[25] or more, which would put gasoline in the $5.00/gallon range in the U.S.

The higher price of oil has yet to cut world-wide demand, as witnessed by ever-increasing year-over-year worldwide oil consumption. Robust demand growth continues in the U.S., China and India in spite of higher oil prices. Substantial energy conservation and demand destruction will probably take place only after average U.S. gasoline prices are sustained in the $4.00-5.00/gallon range. This would equate to the psychologically-significant level of $100.00 or more per fillup of an average SUV or full-size pickup truck.

Late summer 2006 decreases

Oil prices began to decrease at the end of the summer of 2006, closing below US$66/barrel on September 11.[26] The U.S. national average gas price dropped to US$2.70/gallon in early September, down US$0.11 from the previous week. Some cities were seeing average prices below US$2.40/gallon.[27]

As of September, prices continue to fall, and the average cost of gasoline per gallon (U.S. nationwide) is below US$2.50. On September 19, crude oil fell US$2.14 to a 6-month low of US$61.66. The recent significant fall in the price of crude oil has led some to speculate that price of gasoline may fall to as low as $1.15/gallon[28] By October 3, the price closed at US$58.68, its lowest close since mid-February. [29] Reasons for the recent price decreases have included easing tensions with Iran, ample supply and the lack of hurricane activity in oil-producing regions of the Gulf of Mexico[perlu rujukan].

After news of North Korea's successful nuclear test on October 9, 2006, oil prices rose past $60 a barrel, but fell back the next day. Also, for several days in early October, oil prices bounced around the $60 mark on possible news that some OPEC countries would cut oil production by 1,000,000 barrels a day. OPEC had not cut its production since December 2004. However, the oil market has lately seemed to shrug that news off, especially considering that Saudi Arabia said that no such agreement exists (to cut production).

On October 11, oil prices fell below US$58 for the first time since February. Days later, on October 20, a barrel of crude oil closed at US$56.82 per barrel. The same day, OPEC declared that they would cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day in order to arrest the sliding price, the first drop since December 2004.[30]

Effects

There is controversy regarding the potential effects of oil-price shocks. Some see these increases in the price of oil leading to a recession comparable to those that followed the 1973 and 1979 energy crises or a potentially worse situation such as a global oil crash. Most economists see this as unlikely, partly because many (particularly European) developed countries have high fuel taxes that could be temporarily (or even permanently) suspended in the event of a dramatic price spike. Nevertheless, that loss of revenue would put a strain on government balance sheets. The American Strategic Petroleum Reserve could on its own supply current U.S. demand for about a month in the event of an emergency, unless it were also destroyed or inaccessible in the emergency. This could well be the case if a major storm were to hit the Gulf of Mexico, where the reserve is located. While total consumption has increased,[31] the western economies are less reliant on oil than they were twenty-five years ago, due both to substantial growth in productivity and the growth of sectors of the economy with little oil dependence such as finance and banking, retail, etc. The decline of heavy industry and manufacturing in most developed countries has also contributed to the lessened oil dependence.

In the United States, for instance, each $1000 dollars in GDP required 2.4 barrels of oil in 1973 when adjusted for inflation this number had fallen to 1.15 by 2001.[perlu rujukan]

For calendar 1981, United States oil consumption was 5,861,058,000 bbl[32] and GDP was $5,291.7 billion[33] (chain-volume 2000 dollars), a ratio of $902.86/bbl. In 2005, consumption was 7,539,370,000 bbl [perlu rujukan]and GDP was $11048.6 billion, [perlu rujukan]a ratio of $1465.45/bbl.

Oil's historically high ratio of Energy Returned on Energy Invested continues a significant decline. Despite the rapid increase in the price of oil, neither the stock markets nor the growth of the global economy have been noticeably affected. Inflation has increased. In the United States, the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.6% compared to 0.2% for September 2005. This was driven by a 4.2% increase in energy costs. As a result during this period the Federal Reserve has consistently increased interest rates to curb inflation.

Economists say that the substitution effect will spur demand for alternate energy sources, such as coal or liquified natural gas. For example, China and India are currently heavily investing in natural gas and coal liquefaction facilities. Nigeria is working on burning natural gas to produce electricity instead of simply flaring the gas, where all non-emergency gas flaring will be forbidden after 2008.[34][35] Outside the U.S., more than 50% of oil is consumed for stationary, non-transportation purposes such as electricity production where it is relatively easy to substitute natural gas for oil[perlu rujukan].

The increased price of oil also makes previously impractical sources of oil attractive to businesses. The most prominent example of this are the massive reserves of the Canadian tar sands. They are a far less cost-efficient source of heavy, low-grade oil than conventional crude, but with oil trading above $60/bbl, the tar sands have recently become attractive to exploration and production companies. Recent months have seen billions of dollars invested in the tar (bitumen) sands.

Prior to the runup in fuel prices, many motorists opted for big, fuel-thirsty sport utility vehicles and full-sized pickups in the United States, Canada and other countries. This trend is now reversing due to sustained high prices of fuel. The September 2005 sales data for all the vehicles vendor indicated SUV sales dropped while small cars sales increased compared with 2004 sales. There is also an ever increasing market for hybrid vehicles (e.g., Toyota Prius & Honda Civic Hybrid) and diesel engine vehicles (e.g., VW TDI & Mercedes-Benz E320 CDI) since they are more fuel efficient; since the 1973 energy crisis, the four-cylinder front-wheel drive passenger car has replaced rear-wheel drive as the preferred layout for energy efficient cars. There is increasing demand of "crossover" sport utilities (i.e., SUVs based on passenger car platforms) which are marginally more fuel efficient than traditionally heavier truck-based SUVs.

For the working class (those who earn a living wage with no benefits), those who have older vehicles averaging less than 20 MPG usually face several alternatives - commuting via public transportation (bus, rapid transit or light rail), carpooling, motorcycling, scootering, bicycling or walking and/or relocation into the inner city if one resides in suburban/exurban areas.

Many businesses are moving away from 24-hour operation (e.g. box stores like Wal-Mart, groceries, convenience stores, restaurants) since the higher prices discourage past lifestyle trends[perlu rujukan]. Some restaurants close their doors at 9 or 11 p.m., and/or neighborhoods known for a 24 hour culture reduce their operating hours[perlu rujukan]. Airlines, trucking and delivery-intensive service businesses (e.g., UPS, FedEx, pizza, flowers, gifts, etc.) are introducing fuel surcharges and/or scaling back their operations in an effort to trim spiraling fuel costs.

Many school districts have been particularly impacted by the high cost of fuel to run their large bus fleets. Child advocates envision a return to the traditional method of walking or bicycling to school, helping to mitigate the growing childhood obesity epidemic in the U.S.[perlu rujukan]

United States stock markets

Fail:XOI 3-year chart 2005-09-02.png
Three-year performance of the oil industry...
Fail:XOI 1-month chart 2005-09-02.png
...and one-month performance.

The increase in oil prices over two years was mirrored by an increase in stock values in the energy sector. Energy ETFs like XLE and OIH did well during the period, with XLE's price increases from $26 (01/01/2004) to $54 (3/2/2006), and OIH's price increases from $60 (01/01/2004) to $143(3/2/2006). These two remains the diversified energy stock play should oil price continue to hold or rise.

The value of the stock in companies such as Apache[36] and Conoco-Phillips[37] rose sharply during this period. These prices increased more rapidly toward the end of August, particularly after Hurricane Katrina.[38]

Wal-Mart shares continued their decrease in value that began with the increase in the oil prices. Over two years, stock in Wal-Mart dropped in value by 25% from $60 per share to under $45 per share.[39] Earlier in August, Wal-Mart announced that higher than expected oil prices cut into the corporation's profits for the 2nd quarter of 2005. Since oil prices after the end of the 2nd quarter continued to rise, 3rd quarter profits from Wal-Mart are expected to be small. Because Wal-Mart's distribution system relies on the customer to drive to a large discount big-box store, increases in the price of fuel might discourage some customers from making the trip as often. Wal-Mart, like all retailers, will also face higher shipping costs to get goods from the factory to the stores. This will likely cause inflationary pressures.

Asia Pacific region (excludes Australia)

The Pacific rim had been experiencing oil shortages on an ongoing basis prior to Hurricane Katrina. Some countries are increasing production of biofuels to offset the higher costs of oil.

Sub-Saharan Africa

High oil prices are hurting many countries in Africa, including Zimbabwe, Eritrea and Tanzania. High oil prices have created an oil supply instability, per barrel price instability or both. In some cases this has led to fuel rationing being enacted[perlu rujukan]. Many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa lack the foreign exchange reserves to purchase enough oil products at the ever increasingly higher prices. These nations must resort to limiting imports or rationing their existing supplies.

Latin America and Caribbean

Venezuela's president, Hugo Chávez, came under increasing scrutiny as he began selling oil at lower-than-market prices to cash-strapped U.S. consumers, as heating oil, and to island nations in the Caribbean such as Cuba.[40] At the same time, Cuba has experienced electricity shortages.

Gulf States and Eurasian Arab-Islamic regions

Some stock markets in the GCC, notably in Saudi Arabia and Dubai, experienced a boom, roughly 100% index increase in the Saudi stock market.[41] However, this boom was followed by a market crash. A number of planned projects to stir development, such as King Abdullah Economic City, have been proposed due to $29.3 billion surplus.[42] On May 1, 2006 Saudi Arabia lowered prices on all hydrocarbon fuels for local consumption; 95 octane gasoline costs 0.65 USD/gallon (fixed price).[43]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-07-13T231429Z_01_SP327883_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-OIL.xmlttp://www.ameinfo.com/90848.html
  2. ^ http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:5onDI2-du3kJ:lnweb18.worldbank.org/eap/eap.nsf/Attachments/The%2Binternational%2B%26%2Bregional%2Benvironment/%24File/chapter3.pdf+Energy+Information+Administration+Short-Term+Energy+Outlook+%E2%80%93+August+2005++inflation-adjusted++%22%2490+a+barrel%22&hl=en
  3. ^ Weekly U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices, Regular Grade. eia.doe.gov, Last accessed September 12, 2006.
  4. ^ http://www.petrolprices.com
  5. ^ http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/nation/3332630
  6. ^ http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050714-thu.html#anchor2
  7. ^ http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/special/eia1_katrina.html
  8. ^ http://www.decaturdaily.com/decaturdaily/news/050903/gas.shtml
  9. ^ http://www.tuscaloosanews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050901/APN/509010924
  10. ^ http://www.tuscaloosanews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050902/APN/509021155&cachetime=3&template=dateline
  11. ^ http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle.aspx?type=domesticNews&storyID=2005-09-02T170015Z_01_SCH260787_RTRIDST_0_USREPORT-AIRLINES-USAIR-DC.XML
  12. ^ http://www.wsfa.com/Global/story.asp?S=3802436&nav=0RdEe6by
  13. ^ http://www.sentinelandenterprise.com/local/ci_2995691
  14. ^ http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/08/20050831-3.html
  15. ^ http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/02/AR2005090202497.html
  16. ^ http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=ousiv&storyID=2005-09-02T191318Z_01_BAU250357_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESSPRO-ENERGY-KATRINA-EUROPE-WRAP-DC.XML
  17. ^ http://www.iea.org
  18. ^ http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4664590.stm
  19. ^ http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
  20. ^ http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/07/news/economy/gas_prices/index.htm
  21. ^ http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,206457,00.html
  22. ^ http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/index.html
  23. ^ http://www.angolapress-angop.ao/noticia-e.asp?ID=460075
  24. ^ http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/07/news/international/oil_alaska/index.htm
  25. ^ http://www.cfr.org/publication/10428/
  26. ^ Despite drop in oil price, OPEC stick with targets. International Herald Tribune. September 11, 2006.
  27. ^ Calmer Weather Fuels Lower Gas Prices in Texas. San Antonio Business Journal. September 8, 2006.
  28. ^ Gas prices poised to drop further. Kevin G. Hall, The Associated Press. September 15, 2006. Last accessed September 22, 2006.
  29. ^ Oil flops to seven-month low, below US$59 Reuters, CNNMoney.com, October 3, 2006. Last accessed October 3, 2006.
  30. ^ "OPEC moves against falling oil prices", Reuters via USA Today, 20 October 2006
  31. ^ [1]
  32. ^ [2]
  33. ^ [3]
  34. ^ http://www.tribune.com.ng/20062006/eog.html
  35. ^ http://www.climatelaw.org/media/gas.flaring/report/section5
  36. ^ [4]
  37. ^ [5]
  38. ^ [6]
  39. ^ [7]
  40. ^ [8]
  41. ^ [9]
  42. ^ [10]
  43. ^ [11]
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