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WOW counties

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Map
Map of Wisconsin highlighting WOW Counties

The WOW counties are three counties in the southeast of the U.S. state of Wisconsin: Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington. They are to the west, north, and northwest of Milwaukee, respectively, and are part of the Milwaukee metropolitan area.[1]

Demographics

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Historical population
CensusPop.Note%±
186066,135—
187067,7572.5%
188067,8600.2%
189070,9644.6%
190075,1815.9%
191078,0073.8%
192084,6608.5%
193096,30313.8%
1940110,15914.4%
1950143,16430.0%
1960242,80969.6%
1970349,62544.0%
1980432,15523.6%
1990472,8749.4%
2000560,57718.5%
2010608,1738.5%
2020635,2424.5%

Collectively, the three counties have a population of 641,131 as of July 2022.[2] Like the collar counties surrounding Chicago, these counties have a primarily white population, and unusually so considering the trend of suburbs around cities in the Rust Belt region becoming more racially diverse.[3] Racine County, to the south of Milwaukee County, has similar demographics outside the city of Racine (though some communities have lower average income), but is usually not included. As a consequence of racial demographics, the WOW suburbs of Milwaukee have remained solidly Republican for the time being, defying the national trend of the suburbs shifting to the left politically.[4]

History

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Historically, the WOW counties were among the most Republican areas in the state, consistently voting for the party by bigger margins than most other major suburbs north of the Mason–Dixon line.[5] With the GOP's increasing trend toward right-wing populism under Donald Trump, however, several rural areas of Wisconsin have become significantly more Republican than the WOW counties in most races. While the WOW counties remain solidly Republican, the party's landslides have diminished somewhat in the Trump era, shrinking from 2 to 1 in 2012, to 3 to 2 in 2020. This has been attributed to moderate suburban Republicans, who have rejected right-wing populism and hardcore conservatism.[6]

All county offices are held by Republicans; indeed, there are almost no elected Democrats above the county level. None of the counties have supported a Democrat for president since Lyndon Johnson's national landslide of 1964. In 2008, while Barack Obama carried Wisconsin by 14 points and won 59 out of 72 counties, the three counties were his weakest and the only ones in the state where he won less than 40 percent of the county's vote.[7] No Democratic presidential candidate carried a single municipality in the counties between 1996 and 2020, when Joe Biden narrowly flipped the city of Cedarburg in Ozaukee County.[8] The vast majority of the state party's voter turnout efforts (along with those of outside organizations) were, for many years, focused on maximizing turnout from those three counties to counteract the turnout from Milwaukee and Dane counties (home to Milwaukee and Madison) and the cities of Racine and Kenosha, which generally lean Democratic. The counties also represented the heart of Scott Walker's electoral coalitions during his three wins for Governor, garnering over 70% of the vote among the three counties.[9] The electoral importance of these counties for Republicans, Waukesha in particular, has caused some political commentators to dub it "crucial Waukesha county".[10]

With the recent Republican trend in rural Wisconsin, however, GOP turnout efforts have become focused on maximizing rural turnout at the expense of turnout in Milwaukee, Madison, Racine, and Kenosha, as well as the growing Democratic turnout in the WOW counties. This was a factor in Trump's 2016 upset win in Wisconsin, a feat he could not replicate in 2020 as the WOW counties shifted left. Local conservative talk radio stations such as WISN (1130) and the late morning and midday shows of WTMJ (620) have long targeted their programs' topics and talking points more to the WOW counties rather than their city of license, Milwaukee.[11][12][13][14]

Electoral history

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2024 United States presidential election in the WOW counties by municipality. Notably, Kamala Harris became the first Democrat to win a municipality in more than one of the counties in decades.

The WOW counties as a collective have voted for 20 of the 21 most recent Republican presidential campaigns, and in the most recent election that the Democratic Party took the region, Barry Goldwater lost by about 6.5% in an election where he lost Wisconsin by a margin of roughly 24.3%.[15]

Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris won 38.69% of the vote in the WOW counties in 2024, the highest percentage since 1976, despite losing both Wisconsin and the 2024 United States presidential election.[15]

Presidential election results[16][15]
Year Republican Democratic
2024 60.78% 258,858 38.69% 164,838
2020 60.88% 253,780 37.67% 157,029
2016 60.92% 224,747 32.59% 120,246
2012 67.03% 253,640 32.00% 121,104
2008 62.40% 225,053 36.50% 131,637
2004 67.57% 240,471 31.63% 112,574
2000 65.65% 205,422 31.15% 97,464
1996 55.15% 139,636 34.67% 87,777
1992 50.34% 137,005 27.74% 75,488
1988 61.13% 137,694 38.25% 86,166
1984 66.13% 141,603 33.18% 71,044
1980 58.81% 125,643 32.92% 70,335
1976 58.34% 109,033 39.15% 73,180
1972 60.29% 90,496 35.65% 53,510
1968 55.48% 72,151 36.37% 47,297
1964 46.59% 53,274 53.24% 60,876
1960 57.73% 61,233 42.16% 44,714
1956 69.86% 57,187 29.42% 24,082
1952 67.67% 51,529 32.33% 24,437
1948 55.13% 29,066 44.87% 22,606
1944 60.88% 32,571 39.12% 20,457
1940 57.91% 30,140 42.09% 21,204

References

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  1. ^ "Workforce observations for Milwaukee County/WOW counties (May 2004)". Wisconsin Digital Archives. May 2004. Archived from the original on December 4, 2017. Retrieved December 4, 2017.
  2. ^ "State & County QuickFacts". United States Census Bureau. Archived from the original on September 11, 2023. Retrieved February 9, 2021.
  3. ^ "Base Politics: Why Scott Walker's current troubles were entirely predictable". Slate. February 23, 2015. Archived from the original on December 4, 2017. Retrieved December 3, 2017.
  4. ^ "The 'WOW' counties, explained: How Milwaukee suburbs could swing Wisconsin's midterm elections". The ‘WOW’ counties, explained: How Milwaukee suburbs could swing Wisconsin’s midterm elections – The Daily Cardinal. Retrieved June 13, 2024.
  5. ^ Brownstein, Ronald (September 16, 2024). "Why these three states are the most consistent tipping point in American politics". CNN. Retrieved September 16, 2024.
  6. ^ Gilbert, Craig. "The 'WOW' counties suburbs are diverging politically, as some get redder and others grow increasingly purple". Journal Sentinel. Archived from the original on August 23, 2023. Retrieved June 13, 2024.
  7. ^ "2008 Presidential General Election Results – Wisconsin". Archived from the original on May 21, 2022. Retrieved April 12, 2022.
  8. ^ "The 'WOW' counties suburbs are diverging politically, as some get redder and others grow increasingly purple". Journal Sentinel. Archived from the original on August 23, 2023. Retrieved August 23, 2023.
  9. ^ "Wisconsin Election Results: Scott Walker Wins Re-election". The New York Times. December 17, 2014. Retrieved April 13, 2023.
  10. ^ Schneider, Christian. "In the Trump era, Waukesha County remains as crucial as ever for Republicans". Journal Sentinel. Archived from the original on May 28, 2023. Retrieved April 13, 2023.
  11. ^ "Wisconsin's Swing State Status Hinges on "WOW" Counties". CBS 58. Archived from the original on December 4, 2017. Retrieved December 3, 2017.
  12. ^ Opoien, Jessie (October 6, 2016). "Wisconsin Senate GOP leader predicts 'WOW' counties will lead Donald Trump to victory". The Capital Times. Archived from the original on December 4, 2017. Retrieved December 4, 2017.
  13. ^ "How And Where Trump Won Wisconsin in 2016". WisContext. November 18, 2016. Archived from the original on December 4, 2017. Retrieved December 4, 2017.
  14. ^ "Reporter: Trump Still Struggling With Conservative Vote In State's Most Republican Counties". Wisconsin Public Radio. October 3, 2016. Archived from the original on December 4, 2017. Retrieved December 4, 2017.
  15. ^ a b c "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Archived from the original on February 22, 2011. Retrieved April 12, 2022.
  16. ^ "More Wisconsin Elections Results". Wisconsin Elections Commission. Archived from the original on October 14, 2016. Retrieved June 24, 2020.
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