Talk:COVID-19 pandemic
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This article was the subject of a Wiki Education Foundation-supported course assignment, between 6 January 2020 and 25 April 2020. Further details are available on the course page. Student editor(s): Marianneostos (article contribs). Peer reviewers: LawrenceH2020, Egarn005, Taha.A13.
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This is the talk page for discussing improvements to the COVID-19 pandemic article. This is not a forum for general discussion of the article's subject. |
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The virus is typically spread during close contact and via respiratory droplets produced when people cough or sneeze.[1][2] Respiratory droplets may be produced during breathing but the virus is not considered airborne.[1] It may also spread when one touches a contaminated surface and then their face.[1][2] It is most contagious when people are symptomatic, although spread may be possible before symptoms appear.[2](RfC March 2020)
{{Current}}
at the top. (March 2020)Include subsections covering the domestic responses of Italy, China, Iran, the United States, and South Korea. Do not include individual subsections for France, Germany, the Netherlands, Australia and Japan. (RfC March 2020) Include a short subsection on Sweden focusing on the policy controversy. (May 2020)
Subsequently overturned by editing and recognized as obsolete. (July 2024)...and there have been incidents of xenophobia and discrimination against Chinese people and against those perceived as being Chinese or as being from areas with high infection rates.(RfC April 2020)
Supersedes #1. The first several sentences of the lead section's second paragraph should state The virus is mainly spread during close contact[a] and by small droplets produced when those infected cough,[b] sneeze or talk.[1][2][4] These droplets may also be produced during breathing; however, they rapidly fall to the ground or surfaces and are not generally spread through the air over large distances.[1][5][6] People may also become infected by touching a contaminated surface and then their face.[1][2] The virus can survive on surfaces for up to 72 hours.[7] Coronavirus is most contagious during the first three days after onset of symptoms, although spread may be possible before symptoms appear and in later stages of the disease.
(April 2020)
Notes
COVID-19 pandemic. The title of related pages should follow this scheme as well. (RM April 2020, RM August 2020)
10. The article title isWuhan, China
to describe the virus's origin, without mentioning Hubei or otherwise further describing Wuhan. (April 2020)
first identifiedand
December 2019. (May 2020)
U.S. president Donald Trump suggested at a press briefing on 23 April that disinfectant injections or exposure to ultraviolet light might help treat COVID-19. There is no evidence that either could be a viable method.[1] (1:05 min)(May 2020, June 2020)
File:President Donald Trump suggests measures to treat COVID-19 during Coronavirus Task Force press briefing.webm should not be used as the visual element of the misinformation section. (RfC November 2020)
15. Supersedes #13.WP:UNDUE for a full sentence in the lead. (RfC January 2021)
16. Supersedes #8. Incidents of xenophobia and discrimination are consideredFile:COVID-19 Nurse (cropped).jpg should be that one photograph. (May 2021)
17. Only include one photograph in the infobox. There is no clear consensus thatThe COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is a global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).(August 2021, RfC October 2023)
The global COVID-19 pandemic (also known as the coronavirus pandemic), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), began with an outbreak in Wuhan, China, in December 2019.
(June 2024)
Should we switch the lead infobox map from cases per capita to deaths per capita?
Per Metropolitan's arguments here, the death count is a better metric at this point of the severity of a pandemic in a given region than the case count, since the latter is highly dependent on the region's testing capacity. Accordingly, I propose that we switch to using the deaths per capita map as the top map in the infobox, with the others collapsed beneath. Sdkb (talk) 03:45, 27 March 2020 (UTC)
- Oppose. For months, we have focused on case counts. I see no compelling argument to change this right now. I understand that testing is not being evenly applied across regions but the case count (and cases per million) is the best number we have right now to measure the extent to which the pandemic has impacted each region. And testing volumes are increasing dramatically everywhere. Death rates are greatly influenced by each region's healthcare system quality and capacity. I'd oppose changing for now. - Wikmoz (talk) 05:51, 27 March 2020 (UTC)
- One way to look at it might be that we want the map to reflect the fact that some countries' weaker healthcare systems are leading to higher death counts there. Sdkb (talk) 03:34, 30 March 2020 (UTC)
- Support. The current stage of the crisis is of a different nature than what it was in january, requiring us to change our perception on this. Some countries such as South Korea or Germany have tested at a very large scale, even people with very mild symptoms or no at all [1]. However, in many other countries such as Italy, Spain, France or the UK, healthcare systems are totally overwhelmed and the testing capacity is saturated. Testing is limited only to the most serious cases and healthcare workers [2]. As a result, the number of confirmed cases reported daily remains steady, not because we're nearing its peak but simply because there's no testing capacity to report more. Using this metric as the main one can easily lead to very fallacious conclusions about the maturity and intensity of the epidemics from a country to another. Obviously deaths count has its own bias as well [3], yet, very sadly, the number of deaths will never reach any saturation point like testing does. As such, reported deaths remain, despite its flaws, a much better metric to get an idea about the intensity of the epidemic in each country. Therefore, it would seem wiser to use the deaths metric as the ranking by default on Template:2019–20 coronavirus pandemic data table. Metropolitan (talk) 11:02, 27 March 2020 (UTC)
- I think these concerns can be fairly addressed with a footnote. We're already seeing death-to-case ratios vary by an order of magnitude from one country to the next so I really don't think counting deaths is a fair indicator of anything. Testing capacity limits are rapidly being resolved and cheaper and faster tests will come to market over the next few weeks. - Wikmoz (talk) 05:03, 28 March 2020 (UTC)
- Oppose The first map is based off a recent consensus formed here. It's to early from that to change it in my opinion. — RealFakeKimT 14:17, 27 March 2020 (UTC)
- @RealFakeKim: When I formulated the question for that RfC, you'll notice that I referred only to "per capita" vs. "total", and left out the word "cases". That was a deliberate choice, since I anticipated we might at some point want to switch to using death counts instead. I'll leave it to others with more medical/statistical experience to decide what the best approach is at this point (I haven't been persuaded to wed myself to one or the other yet), but I don't think that that RfC should be used as an argument against switching. The other maps RfC might serve as a slightly better precedent, but it was a little muddled since it was asking about per capita vs. totals/cases vs. deaths/collapsed vs. uncollapsed all at the same time. Plus it was started over a week ago, which is meaningful given how rapidly the situation is evolving. Sdkb (talk) 19:40, 27 March 2020 (UTC)
- Oppose: Death is not the only consequence of the disease, and the constant fixation on the fatality rate in the media can likely be of partial blame for the complacency seen among the general public (e.g. "It's no big deal, only 3.5% die!" or "Don't worry, only boomers and retirees die!"). There are plenty of infected patients that do not die, but end up in ICU and require emergency intervention, not to mention we don't fully understand the long-term chronic implications of the disease yet (e.g. lung tissue scarring, and whether or not patients are able to eventually regain most of their pre-infection lung capacity). The spotlight needs to be on infection, and not excessively on cases of death. --benlisquareT•C•E 17:27, 27 March 2020 (UTC)
- This is an incredibly important point. I'd also add that as treatment improves in coming weeks and months, the death rate will become a weaker and weaker indicator of the pandemic's reach. - Wikmoz (talk) 05:03, 28 March 2020 (UTC)
- Support Per capita confirmed cases were always dependant on testing capacity, and as the pandemic continues and countries like the US fail to increase testing capacity, the numbers quickly become misleading. Unfortunately, deaths are not subject to the same issues of testing capacity; we could test no one and the rate of reported deaths would remain the same. Given the known issues with testing capacity in many countries and the growing death toll, per capita deaths are a better representation of the extent of the pandemic. — Wug·a·po·des 19:10, 27 March 2020 (UTC)
- Wouldn't this depend on the country's (or local provincial) specific procedures? If there is little to no testing capability for cadavers, then if an untested patient dies, wouldn't the cause of death be recorded as unrelated pneumonia? If the local provincial/national policy was to cremate all pneumonia-case bodies, tested or untested, would they record all bodies as coronavirus cases? --benlisquareT•C•E 02:30, 28 March 2020 (UTC)
- Not necessarily. The testing capacity required to have an accurate count of deaths is much lower than the testing capacity required to have an accurate count of infections. If we ballpark the death rate at 3%, you'd need 30 times more testing to identify 90% of confirmed case than you would need to identify every death (and that's assuming we never test someone without the disease). It also is more likely that in regions with limited testing capacity, tests will be limited to severe cases which are also the ones most likely to die, so cases that lead to death are more likely to be identified well before actual death. I find it unlikely that covid19 deaths will go misreported as pneumonia-related deaths since every doctor in the world is on the lookout for patients with pneumonia-like symptoms. Even if there are the occasional errors, the much greater error is using data we know represents testing capacity and not infection rates and then tell readers that it represents infection rates. — Wug·a·po·des 04:54, 28 March 2020 (UTC)
- In some countries, the number of deaths counted depends on testing, so the whole point is moot. For example, in Iran, it is said that they classed the deaths as pneumonia or other causes if they had not been tested for the virus. Hzh (talk) 18:19, 29 March 2020 (UTC)
- Support As @Wugapodes: stated. The readers want to make sure these details are there for them to see. We cant have anymore misinfomation or missing detail on such heavily worked topic. Regice2020 (talk) 03:46, 28 March 2020 (UTC)
- Oppose. Death is only one of the possible symptoms of COVID-19. People who spend days in ICU and place a significant stain on the healthcare system are also to be accounted for. The main map should reflect the spread of COVID-19, not the number of respirators available to save people. Moreover, countries that under-report the number of cases often also under-report the number of death. Of course if the global consensus goes towards death per capita map, then we should follow it!Raphaël Dunant (talk) 10:34, 28 March 2020 (UTC)
- Support Is the most object quantity (with least amount of uncertainty) Voorlandt (talk) 10:43, 28 March 2020 (UTC)
- oppose per Raphael Dunant--Ozzie10aaaa (talk) 17:08, 28 March 2020 (UTC)
- Keep as is Doc James (talk · contribs · email) 18:24, 28 March 2020 (UTC)
- Support. Death numbers are much more comparable between countries. For example Iceland and Norway have tested a large portion of the population, so the map gives impression of high, but very few died, which is a more reliable number. Also: We should always prioritize numbers per capita over absolute numbers.Tomastvivlaren (talk) 08:59, 29 March 2020 (UTC)
- Oppose No good reason to change it, especially as the death rates appear to vary considerably between countries, over ten times the difference in some cases (e.g. very low in Germany but very high in Italy). Hzh (talk) 18:13, 29 March 2020 (UTC)
- The above is likely explained by Germans testing much more than Italians by now. The above is a reason to prioritize the death map, not because deaths are the only important thing, but because deaths are probably a better basis for an estimate of the real cases than the confirmed cases are; both confirmed deaths and confirmed cases are subject to incomplete testing, but deaths would seem less so. Ideally, show both per capita maps and drop the map with absolute numbers, and then it will be no longer so important which of the two maps is prioritized. --Dan Polansky (talk) 19:48, 29 March 2020 (UTC)
- No, since some countries don't count deaths they haven't tested, they simply attribute deaths to other causes like pneumonia, therefore death number would also be unreliable. Hzh (talk) 20:28, 29 March 2020 (UTC)
- Oppose Too soon. There will come a time. But right now for a current event what is more of interest is the infections/infection rate. --Calthinus (talk) 22:16, 29 March 2020 (UTC)
- Oppose The per capita map just needs its ranges tweaked or added to. It's far too homogeneous in colour to be helpful at conveying the data. Worse, it might be misleading, implying some countries have similar rates when it's anything but. If you're going to lead with that map you at least need to include the specific numbers in the following chart because, as it stands, it requires users to look all of the information up themselves and do the math.135.23.106.211 (talk) 23:18, 30 March 2020 (UTC)
- Oppose The article should switch to using a harmonic mean of infection rates, hospitalization rates, intubation rates, and fatality rates. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 71.163.111.74 (talk) 16:01, 31 March 2020 (UTC)
- Support The deaths per capita, although comes with its own biases, is a better indicator of the effect on the region and is less affected by the saturated testing capacity in many regions.--17jiangz1 (talk) 20:23, 31 March 2020 (UTC)
- Support, as per 17jiangz1 and others. The cases figure is known to be all over the place because of different approaches to testing from country to country. It could be off by more than an order of magnitude. Deaths, while still having some differences in recording, are much more comparable. Bondegezou (talk) 10:45, 1 April 2020 (UTC)
- Support. The reasons given above are strong and convincing. Cases are nowhere near as reliable a statistic as deaths. The only valid argument I see in opposition is that a pandemic is not characterised by deaths but by cases. While this is true, one could argue that the impact of a pandemic is indeed better characterised by deaths. I feel that argument ends up being a 50/50 about what is considered important, with equal validity to those who say deaths are more important and those who say cases are more important. With equality on that argument, and the reliability argument favouring heavily the use of deaths as a metric, I definitely support this change.Wikiditm (talk) 08:35, 3 April 2020 (UTC)
- Support as per others' comments. I don't see how "for months, we have focused on case counts, why should we switch now" is a good argument. If you have focused on the wrong thing for months, shouldn't that be an incentive to focus on the better measure immediately? Once cases become the better measure again, you can always switch back. Only tangentially related: in the "Deaths" section, can someone explain to me the difference between "death-to-case ratio" and case fatality rate? The section makes it seem like those are two distinct measures, but (and I am not an expert), to me they seem to be the same thing...? Felix.winter2010 (talk) 8:40, 3 April 2020 (UTC)
- Support - The cases map is certainly misleading, as it makes the most efficient countries like Germany and South Korea look like problem cases. Quite the opposite. -- Kautilya3 (talk) 10:41, 3 April 2020 (UTC)
- Support. Case count is largely meaningless as a means of comparing the epidemic in two countries, due to the huge discrepancy in testing regimes. It's comparing apples to oranges. The death count, although not completely consistent (some countries may be less likely to test for COVID in a postmortem than others, for example), is certainly much better than case count, because most deaths will be recorded unlike many stay-at-home-and-isolate cases which are not. — Amakuru (talk) 10:57, 3 April 2020 (UTC)
- The argument simply doesn't make sense. Countries that don't test much, whether on the living or the dead, won't register deaths as being due to Covid-19. I'm not sure why people would also assume that post-mortem test is something even done in most countries (I would think most countries don't do it when even rich countries like Germany don't). This is in addition to countries that have been accused of deliberately downplaying the number of deaths. Hzh (talk) 19:25, 3 April 2020 (UTC)
- The countries that test less focus their small number of tests, and they focus them on people who are more likely to carry the disease; that's the idea. In such countries, covid-infected people are more likely to escape testing than covid-infected dying people (dying of covid or with covid.) --Dan Polansky (talk) 12:29, 4 April 2020 (UTC)
- The argument simply doesn't make sense. Countries that don't test much, whether on the living or the dead, won't register deaths as being due to Covid-19. I'm not sure why people would also assume that post-mortem test is something even done in most countries (I would think most countries don't do it when even rich countries like Germany don't). This is in addition to countries that have been accused of deliberately downplaying the number of deaths. Hzh (talk) 19:25, 3 April 2020 (UTC)
- It's still the same problem - those who don't test won't assign the deaths to Covid-19, I have no idea why people assume that those who died would be automatically attributed to Covid-19. For example, in China people who died from flu for many years were attributed to other reasons, giving China an unusually low death count compared to other countries - [4]. Hzh (talk) 15:01, 5 April 2020 (UTC)
- My post does not suggest that "those who died would be automatically attributed to Covid-19", nor is it concerned with "those who don't test" but rather with those who focus their tests, and the only non-focused tests would be random-sampled tests from general population with no pre-selection bias. --Dan Polansky (talk) 12:07, 6 April 2020 (UTC)
- It's still the same problem - those who don't test won't assign the deaths to Covid-19, I have no idea why people assume that those who died would be automatically attributed to Covid-19. For example, in China people who died from flu for many years were attributed to other reasons, giving China an unusually low death count compared to other countries - [4]. Hzh (talk) 15:01, 5 April 2020 (UTC)
- Both – because deaths lag cases by several weeks, but also they are arguably the more reliable statistic. Countries like S Korea and Germany have kept things under control by much more extensive testing which gives comparatively high case figures. I maintain the graphs of new cases and daily deaths on this page and lacking any better measure I use the weighted average of the two figures to pick the top 5 countries. If a statistician can suggest a better combination I'm open to it. Chris55 (talk) 07:36, 4 April 2020 (UTC)
- Having thought about it for a few minutes, it's probably better to use the geometric mean. Chris55 (talk) 08:23, 4 April 2020 (UTC)
- It doesn't make sense to take the mean of two statistics which aren't independent.Wikiditm (talk) 09:17, 5 April 2020 (UTC)
- Oppose The focus should be on infections/cases for now, since deaths lag the infection rates by weeks. There will be a time to include both deaths and cases, adjusted for population, but now is not the right time. Rwat128 (talk) 21:17, 11 April 2020 (UTC)
- Oppose Impact is better shown by case counts at the moment. We have deaths just below. --Gtoffoletto (talk) 09:41, 16 April 2020 (UTC)
- Oppose Death count is a lagging indicator. Moreover, death count has a very strong correlation with the age of those infected - South Korea and Germany both had to deal with younger patients than Italy or France. Yes, case count is a function of testing, but death count is a function of age and hospital capacity. Deaths can be under counted too - NYC and Wuhan have both revised death counts upwards weeks after deaths occur. Cases are a far better representation of outbreak severity. Nmurali02 (talk) 13:23, 17 April 2020 (UTC)
- Support Cases are too unreliable. Andrew🐉(talk) 11:47, 19 April 2020 (UTC)
- Oppose We currently show both cases per-capita (first) and then deaths per-capita. This has been quite stable for weeks. It is also the order it is generally reported (e.g. World Health Organization). Maybe this is breaking news to some people, but figures for death counts also suffer from a lot of distortions: different reporting criteria for different countries, test capacity, protocols for post-mortem testing, etc. --MarioGom (talk) 12:23, 19 April 2020 (UTC)
- Support New studies are showing the case numbers to be extremely unreliable. While some countries like the UK are under reporting their COVID-19 deaths, it's still far more reliable and important. -- Jeandré, 2020-04-19t16:15z
- Support Case counts are mostly a reflection of how many people have been tested. Death is easier to track and more reliable. There’s also the idea that the best tracker is excess deaths,[1], but we’d need WP:MEDRS to use them. Benica11 (talk) 13:32, 23 April 2020 (UTC)
- Death counts are also a reflection of how many people get tested, they're not more reliable than case counts. Here for example the number of excess deaths in Ecuador suggests that the actual deaths from Covid-19 may be 15 times higher than the number of deaths reported in that country - [5]. Excess deaths would be more interesting, but there are not widely reported. Hzh (talk) 15:05, 25 April 2020 (UTC)
- Support While number of deaths and total cases both rely on testing to an extent, the former should remain a more reliable indicator (at least in developed nations), since more severe cases seem generally prioritized for testing. Pyrhan (talk) 16:51, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- Comment this discussion seems to have run its course, but !vote totals are pretty split. Can we have someone close this? {{u|Sdkb}} talk 19:38, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
Compromise: Default, show both maps and add a warning text
A suggestion for a compromize while waiting for people to agree here is to show both maps in the infobox - currently only the number of infected per capita is visible by default. The number of deaths per capita should also be visible immediately, as that is more reliable.
A second suggestion is to add a warning below maps of the number of infected people: "Numbers are not comparable as different countries have different testing strategies". 82.196.112.105 (talk) 09:20, 12 April 2020 (UTC)
- I'd oppose showing both maps by default. The image panorama is quite good, and it shouldn't be pushed so far down that people need to scroll a bunch to see it. I'd support having some sort of caveat in the caption, as is done currently for the Europe map (we at least need to get consistent), although it might make more sense as an efn (footnote) than as direct text. {{u|Sdkb}} talk 04:16, 13 April 2020 (UTC)
- I think that maybe putting the deaths chart in a collapsible may be the better way to do this for now. Swordman97 talk to me
- Me Too -- Move this article and do we have to delete this article? Abdullah Al Manjur (talk) 13:56, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- We should be trimming the maps......as 70 percent of our readers have all maps expanded causing a scrolling nightmare. Most see opening paragraph then a wall of maps.... most wont scroll beyond the infobox at this point. Want to keep readers give them prose text.--Moxy 🍁 14:35, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Moxy: the issue with sidebar collapsing not working on mobile is tracked at T247701. The maps are useful, though, so we can't just get rid of them. {{u|Sdkb}} talk 12:21, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- Should be moved till solved Ratio of Android app views with a scroll action (Around 32% of pageviews do not involve scrolling down - i.e. reader look only at the top of the page with 60+% only scrolling down 2 times). This means on this article the majority only read first paragraph because of scrolling thur maps. Set the page up so 2 scrolls gets readers the full lead.....and to the TOC in 2 scrolls (Most readers look first at TOC - 45% of time is spent scanning a page looking at the TOC) Investigation of information behavior in Wikipedia articles. .--Moxy 🍁 13:08, 3 May 2020 (UTC)a
- @Moxy: the issue with sidebar collapsing not working on mobile is tracked at T247701. The maps are useful, though, so we can't just get rid of them. {{u|Sdkb}} talk 12:21, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
Requested move 26 April 2020
This section is pinned and will not be automatically archived until 04:01, 18 May 2020 (UTC). |
- The following is a closed discussion of a requested move. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made in a new section on the talk page. Editors desiring to contest the closing decision should consider a move review after discussing it on the closer's talk page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.
The result of the move request was: Move to COVID-19 pandemic. While there is, of course, some disagreement, the strength – to say nothing of the number (which by my count exceed those against it by 2:1) – of the arguments in favor of this name outdo those against it. Redirects from "coronavirus"-related titles will still exist. As agreed in the sidebar, other related titles using the "2019–20 coronavirus pandemic" nomenclature should be moved in due time, likely with the assistance of a bot. -- tariqabjotu 01:12, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
2019–20 coronavirus pandemic → COVID-19 pandemic – (The 30 day moratorium on page move discussion has now expired. It was well respected, but please do not use the notion that the name has been unchallenged for 30 days as justification for its retention.)
- An epidemic should be named for the disease, not the virus, and even less so for the large group of which the responsible virus is but one member.
- Using COVID-19 rather than coronavirus 2019 seems to be in keeping with item 2 of the COVID-19 project's consensuses, replicated at the top of this talk page. It has the additional benefit of not repeating so obviously the 2019 if the years are to be included as a prefix.
- I propose dropping the years prefix:
- (a) because there will be disagreement as to whether it is accurate to talk of pandemic situation in 2019;
- (b) because it is not absolutely clear that the pandemic will finish before 2020 does; and
- (c) in the hope that whatever may happen with this virus in the future, it does not bring about a second full blown pandemic, and that such disambiguation would be redundant.
- I would actually prefer to see three separate votes on these three issues (name for virus or disease/full or abbreviated name/with or without year(s) prefix), but RM just doesn't work that way, and parallel RfCs do not seem to be a good way to resolve issues in Wikipedia, but if there is a clear preference for that course of action, I would happily withdraw my RM. Kevin McE (talk) 12:35, 26 April 2020 (UTC)
Survey
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Survey (Requested move 26 April 2020)
References
I think that's all the arguments I can find. This is just to let new editors who want to take part of the discussion know how the discussion is ongoing, because this thread is REALLY long. You can change this if you want.
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RM sidebar (comments, extended discussion)
We will need to move (rename) other articles for consistency
The following discussion is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.
If we decide to make the move (rename the article), we should do the same for all the other articles that have "2019–20 coronavirus pandemic" in their titles. - Mark D Worthen PsyD (talk) (I'm a man—traditional male pronouns are fine.) 23:18, 26 April 2020 (UTC)
Survey
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Extended content (some discussion and a bunch of misplaced !votes)
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@Yeungkahchun: you may want to move your !vote to the section above if you were !voting on the RM itself. {{u|Sdkb}} talk 23:14, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
Pandemics are named after the disease, not the virusSomeone else (I can't remember who at the moment), educated me when he/she/they wrote, "Pandemics are named after the disease, not the virus." So, for example, if we followed the tradition of the present article, naming the pandemic after the virus, we would have an article titled something like, "2019 United States outbreak of measles morbillivirus wild-type D8 and B3", instead of the current title, "Measles resurgence in the United States".
- Mark D Worthen PsyD (talk) (I'm a man—traditional male pronouns are fine.) 00:43, 27 April 2020 (UTC)
Nvm my mistake I assumed that the cases included suspected ones Username900122 (talk) 16:20, 27 April 2020 (UTC)
Are we have to do an another RM yet over again?How many of RMs is required to satisfy the requirement for an name? --91.207.170.201 (talk) 08:21, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
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- The discussion above is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.
- I've started a thread about the implementation of all the other moves at the COVID-19 WikiProject talk page. Feel free to contribute there. {{u|Sdkb}} talk 04:41, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
The Question of Origin
Given the volume of damning, albeit circumstantial evidence [2], a sentence or two about the possibility that the virus was accidentally leaked from a lab should be added to the origin section. Note that this is not a suggestion that the case be made for a bio-engingeering or bio-weapons origin. That seems highly implausible and is well suited for the misinformation page. Rather, an accidental leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology is in perfect concordance with the present scientific consensus of a natural origin for the virus. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 2604:2000:1540:4BD9:404C:895E:F375:6408 (talk) 00:12, 27 April 2020 (UTC)
- Note: the same discussion is happening over at SARS-COV-2 Hemiauchenia (talk) 16:38, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- Absolutely no conspiracy theories will be added to this article as though they are plausible. – Muboshgu (talk) 00:22, 27 April 2020 (UTC)
- Me and Lenny ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) agree with Muboshgu: No conspiracy theories allowed. - Mark D Worthen PsyD (talk) (I'm a man—traditional male pronouns are fine.) 00:51, 27 April 2020 (UTC)
- Apologies if the talk page isn't appropriate for this discussion (I'm new to the Wikipedia talk pages - happy to exchange emails and have the discussion elsewhere), but how is this origin more implausible/more of a conspiracy theory than the origin related to the wet market that is implied in the current iteration of the article? I see how any number of other conspiracy theories should be banned, including intentional leakage and bio weapons, but the amount of circumstantial evidence related to the Wuhan Institute of Virology certainly warrants a second look. If this is an issue of the reach of my conjecture exceeding the grasp of the available evidence, I totally understand. There have to be standards. But to simply dismiss this as a conspiracy theory like all of the other garbage out there strikes me as a bit hasty. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 98.15.121.202 (talk) 00:57, 27 April 2020 (UTC)
- Welcome to Wikipedia 98.15.121.202. I agree that we (me, you, and those other editors too) can dismiss arguments hastily without fully considering a claim's merits. At the same time, understanding the context is important. Wikipedians very frequently encounter spam, vandalism, hacking, lying, paid editing to boost a company's web presence, and a slew of conspiracy theories yearning for the legitimacy a Wikipedia article bestows on the movement. ¶ Given that reality, and because it is standard practice, the burden of persuasion falls on the editor(s) who want to add new information. If you wish to take on the challenge, I suspect many editors will seriously consider your argument, since you write well, display courtesy and tact, and come across as sincere. ¶ In terms of classical rhetorical strategies, you can enhance your ethos by learning Wikipedia's ways and wherefores. ¶ So ... Why not create an account and stay awhile? Wikipedia can use as many quality members as possible! Here are some pages that you might find helpful: *The five pillars of Wikipedia, *How to edit a page, *Help pages, *Tutorial, *How to write a great article, *Manual of Style. BONUS TIP! → sign your name on talk pages using four tildes (~~~~ ); this will automatically produce your name and the date. If you need help, check out Wikipedia:Questions. All the best - Mark D Worthen PsyD (talk) (I'm a man—traditional male pronouns are fine.) 11:41, 27 April 2020 (UTC)
- Thanks! I've made an account now and I'll look at the sources you provided. --Azahariev (talk) 20:37, 28 April 2020 (UTC)
- Welcome to Wikipedia 98.15.121.202. I agree that we (me, you, and those other editors too) can dismiss arguments hastily without fully considering a claim's merits. At the same time, understanding the context is important. Wikipedians very frequently encounter spam, vandalism, hacking, lying, paid editing to boost a company's web presence, and a slew of conspiracy theories yearning for the legitimacy a Wikipedia article bestows on the movement. ¶ Given that reality, and because it is standard practice, the burden of persuasion falls on the editor(s) who want to add new information. If you wish to take on the challenge, I suspect many editors will seriously consider your argument, since you write well, display courtesy and tact, and come across as sincere. ¶ In terms of classical rhetorical strategies, you can enhance your ethos by learning Wikipedia's ways and wherefores. ¶ So ... Why not create an account and stay awhile? Wikipedia can use as many quality members as possible! Here are some pages that you might find helpful: *The five pillars of Wikipedia, *How to edit a page, *Help pages, *Tutorial, *How to write a great article, *Manual of Style. BONUS TIP! → sign your name on talk pages using four tildes (~~~~ ); this will automatically produce your name and the date. If you need help, check out Wikipedia:Questions. All the best - Mark D Worthen PsyD (talk) (I'm a man—traditional male pronouns are fine.) 11:41, 27 April 2020 (UTC)
- Apologies if the talk page isn't appropriate for this discussion (I'm new to the Wikipedia talk pages - happy to exchange emails and have the discussion elsewhere), but how is this origin more implausible/more of a conspiracy theory than the origin related to the wet market that is implied in the current iteration of the article? I see how any number of other conspiracy theories should be banned, including intentional leakage and bio weapons, but the amount of circumstantial evidence related to the Wuhan Institute of Virology certainly warrants a second look. If this is an issue of the reach of my conjecture exceeding the grasp of the available evidence, I totally understand. There have to be standards. But to simply dismiss this as a conspiracy theory like all of the other garbage out there strikes me as a bit hasty. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 98.15.121.202 (talk) 00:57, 27 April 2020 (UTC)
- Me and Lenny ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) agree with Muboshgu: No conspiracy theories allowed. - Mark D Worthen PsyD (talk) (I'm a man—traditional male pronouns are fine.) 00:51, 27 April 2020 (UTC)
Additionally, let's note the section about accidental virus leakage on the COVID Misinformation page [3]. Note specifically the final sentence: "Days later, multiple media outlets confirmed that U.S. intelligence officials were investigating the possibility that the virus started in the WIV" as of this writing (April 26, 9:22PM Eastern Standard Time). NBC, CNN, CBS, and the WSJ are all reporting this. I don't think it's reasonable to treat this merely as a conspiracy theory at this point. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 98.15.121.202 (talk) 01:23, 27 April 2020 (UTC)
- Agree conspiracy theories belong on that other page. Doc James (talk · contribs · email) 08:18, 27 April 2020 (UTC)
References
I'm not especially educated on the precise details, but I think that when a hypothesis is being taken seriously by at least one major national government it is somewhat ridiculous to categorically call it "misinformation". Claims of it being intentionally released as a bioweapon are obviously flawed and can safely be filed under the heading of "conspiracy theory", but when nobody's willing to rule out an accidental leak it frankly seems premature to dismiss it. I personally don't think it's likely, but I don't see the conclusive weight of evidence that would be needed to categorically mark it false - even the section on it in the "misinformation" article is really short on anyone categorically ruling it out, which would seem to be an RS issue in itself (i.e. we have no RS cited that it is misinformation). Magic9mushroom (talk) 19:33, 27 April 2020 (UTC)
- And I don't know what kind of Wikipedia policies and policy exceptions could apply here, but it seems to me that the fact that the theory has been taken seriously enough to enter various media outlets is indicative of its worth being mentioned, if only to be subsequently dismissed as poorly founded and unconfirmed in the sentence directly following it. To some extent, we have a duty to our readers to show them what they may have heard about elsewhere from what seems like legitimate sources, even if that information is erroneous, so that they understand that yes, we are aware of this, and no, it probably isn't true, and here's why, so long as we provide links to those sources. Otherwise readers will be left wondering, "I guess none of the editors of Wikipedia has heard about this thing yet," which wouldn't be at all true. We and the reading public are better off and better informed if we say we know about it and it is bunk. But that attitude should probably only apply if the conspiracy theory has already had a significant independent public airing first (which this one seems to have had). A loose necktie (talk) 20:29, 27 April 2020 (UTC)
- Very well put, A loose necktie. I support inclusion in a single sentence, followed inmediately by a caveat of its speculative nature at this point.--Forich (talk) 23:14, 27 April 2020 (UTC)
- It's a new strain of coronavirus, that's it. I really don't see why we'd need to involve a science lab. If it was super deadly or super infectious at least, we'd have somewhat of a base for a conspiracy. Iluvalar (talk) 02:25, 28 April 2020 (UTC)
- As I said, I agree that hypotheses of deliberate release (i.e. conspiracy) are obviously flawed and definitely belong under the heading of "conspiracy theory". Accidental release is what's being taken relatively seriously as a possibility, and what I think WP is dismissing more categorically than is warranted (saying that it's speculative is entirely warranted, but outright dumping it under "misinformation" - i.e., confirmed wrong/implausible - is not). I support Forich's suggestion. Magic9mushroom (talk) 07:55, 28 April 2020 (UTC)
- What source is being proposed to be used? Doc James (talk · contribs · email) 09:51, 28 April 2020 (UTC)
- As the accidental leakage theory is proposed by a serious source, i.e. the Washington Post's columnist Josh Rogin on April the 14th, and is followed up by multiple confirmations that U.S. intelligence officials are investigating the possibility, I think it would be appropriate to include one or two sentences here. If we would stamp it as misinformation beforehand, our neutrality would be at stake.Otto S. Knottnerus (talk) 21:15, 28 April 2020 (UTC)
- I suggest we try these, in order of most reputable to less: 1) Nature; 2) The Lancet; 3) BBC News, Reuters, Interfax, Agence France-Presse, United Press International or the Associated Press; 3) Peer-reviewed journals; 4) Al Jazeera, The Atlantic, CNN, The Daily Telegraph, The Economist, Forbes, Fox News, The Guardian, The New York Times, Newsweek, Snopes, Time, Vox, The Washington Post and Wired. --Forich (talk) 21:21, 28 April 2020 (UTC)
- Nature, Lancet, Reuters, Interfax, AFP, UPI, and AP have not covered the story yet (as ar as I know). That leaves us with BBC News, as the most reputable source for this.--Forich (talk) 21:42, 28 April 2020 (UTC)
- Here's Reuters covering the story as well. Certainly nothing conclusive, but it seems fair to include the fact that the Wuhan Institute of Virology is being investigated as a possible source. Azahariev (talk) 01:47, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
- It's a conspiracy theory refuted by multiple authoritative sources in the cited Vox article. There's no "there" there. Global Cerebral Ischemia (talk) 12:47, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
- From your citation: "The scientists I did speak to all acknowledge it’s not possible to definitively rule out the lab-escape theory." That a plausible explanation is not the most probable one is no basis for calling it "refuted" or "misinformation". I'm not asking for us to say outright that it came via WIV - that would be even more inappropriate than the current state of affairs. I'm asking for it to not be literally labelled false while it's still under serious consideration.
- I'll say what we're all thinking: the accusation is political dynamite related to one of the world's great powers, and some of the people making it are more interested in that dynamite than in the truth. That doesn't mean it's wrong. I think it probably is, but we don't have (and may never have) solid evidence one way or the other and until we do it shouldn't be in the category of "misinformation" - that's specifically outright lies. Magic9mushroom (talk) 14:40, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
- Of course scientists will
"acknowledge it’s not possible to definitively rule out the lab-escape theory:"
they're scientists and thinking in terms of probabilities. Scientists' love of hedging and cautious language has been used by others, notably climate science deniers, to produce controversy where there is none. Many scientists calling the lab escape theory "highly unlikely" means "BS" in plain English. -Darouet (talk) 16:07, 29 April 2020 (UTC)- The point about not being able to "definitively rule out" the conspiracy theory is meaningless. This is specifically addressed in the article I linked to: “The trouble with hypotheses is that they are not disprovable. You cannot prove a negative,” said Peter Daszak, president of EcoHealth Alliance and a disease ecologist who has studied emerging infectious diseases with colleagues in China. Yet he also sees the lab-escape theory as “ironic and preposterous.” The issue isn't whether it can be "definitively" rule out, the issue is whether there is any good reason whatsoever to believe it. The answer is definitively "no." Global Cerebral Ischemia (talk) 19:20, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
- @Global Cerebral Ischemia: agreed. -Darouet (talk) 21:21, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
- From the Vox Article: "Newsweek reported April 27 that in March the US Defense Intelligence Agency issued a report that “reveals that U.S. intelligence revised its January assessment in which it ‘judged that the outbreak probably occurred naturally’ to now include the possibility that the new coronavirus emerged ‘accidentally’ due to ‘unsafe laboratory practices’ in the central Chinese city of Wuhan.”" and "I asked Jim LeDuc, head of the Galveston National Laboratory, a level-4 biosafety lab in Texas, for his thoughts on Yuan’s statement. “I like to think that we can take Zhiming Yuan at his word, but he works in a very different culture with pressures we may not fully appreciate,” he said. In other words, we don’t know what kind of pressures he might be under from his government to make such a statement." ... These are the kind of issues that folks who want this to be merely mentioned are concerned about. Is this not enough evidence to include two sentences? Something like "Western intelligence agencies are looking at the WIV as a potential origin of the virus, as rumors and concerns about lab safety surface, indicating a possibility that the naturally occurring virus accidentally originated there before spreading to other areas in Wuhan including the wet market. At this time, this origin source is viewed as unlikely by most in the scientific community." Azahariev (talk) 15:51, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- @Global Cerebral Ischemia: agreed. -Darouet (talk) 21:21, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
- The point about not being able to "definitively rule out" the conspiracy theory is meaningless. This is specifically addressed in the article I linked to: “The trouble with hypotheses is that they are not disprovable. You cannot prove a negative,” said Peter Daszak, president of EcoHealth Alliance and a disease ecologist who has studied emerging infectious diseases with colleagues in China. Yet he also sees the lab-escape theory as “ironic and preposterous.” The issue isn't whether it can be "definitively" rule out, the issue is whether there is any good reason whatsoever to believe it. The answer is definitively "no." Global Cerebral Ischemia (talk) 19:20, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
- Of course scientists will
- It's a conspiracy theory refuted by multiple authoritative sources in the cited Vox article. There's no "there" there. Global Cerebral Ischemia (talk) 12:47, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
- Here's Reuters covering the story as well. Certainly nothing conclusive, but it seems fair to include the fact that the Wuhan Institute of Virology is being investigated as a possible source. Azahariev (talk) 01:47, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
- Nature, Lancet, Reuters, Interfax, AFP, UPI, and AP have not covered the story yet (as ar as I know). That leaves us with BBC News, as the most reputable source for this.--Forich (talk) 21:42, 28 April 2020 (UTC)
- I suggest we try these, in order of most reputable to less: 1) Nature; 2) The Lancet; 3) BBC News, Reuters, Interfax, Agence France-Presse, United Press International or the Associated Press; 3) Peer-reviewed journals; 4) Al Jazeera, The Atlantic, CNN, The Daily Telegraph, The Economist, Forbes, Fox News, The Guardian, The New York Times, Newsweek, Snopes, Time, Vox, The Washington Post and Wired. --Forich (talk) 21:21, 28 April 2020 (UTC)
- As the accidental leakage theory is proposed by a serious source, i.e. the Washington Post's columnist Josh Rogin on April the 14th, and is followed up by multiple confirmations that U.S. intelligence officials are investigating the possibility, I think it would be appropriate to include one or two sentences here. If we would stamp it as misinformation beforehand, our neutrality would be at stake.Otto S. Knottnerus (talk) 21:15, 28 April 2020 (UTC)
- What source is being proposed to be used? Doc James (talk · contribs · email) 09:51, 28 April 2020 (UTC)
- As I said, I agree that hypotheses of deliberate release (i.e. conspiracy) are obviously flawed and definitely belong under the heading of "conspiracy theory". Accidental release is what's being taken relatively seriously as a possibility, and what I think WP is dismissing more categorically than is warranted (saying that it's speculative is entirely warranted, but outright dumping it under "misinformation" - i.e., confirmed wrong/implausible - is not). I support Forich's suggestion. Magic9mushroom (talk) 07:55, 28 April 2020 (UTC)
- It's a new strain of coronavirus, that's it. I really don't see why we'd need to involve a science lab. If it was super deadly or super infectious at least, we'd have somewhat of a base for a conspiracy. Iluvalar (talk) 02:25, 28 April 2020 (UTC)
- Very well put, A loose necktie. I support inclusion in a single sentence, followed inmediately by a caveat of its speculative nature at this point.--Forich (talk) 23:14, 27 April 2020 (UTC)
Scientific consensus strongly favors natural, zoonotic origin. In the mean time, as during the 1918 flu pandemic, countries all over the world are blaming their enemies for creating the virus or spreading panic. We should keep politicization out of this section. I have done so with this edit [23], restoring longstanding text and consensus for the opening epidemiology paragraph. -Darouet (talk) 15:40, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
- Darouet, you are not understanding: the regular procedure after a once-in-a-millenium-pandemic like this is for the world to conduct an independent investigation on key details: its origin, who was patient-zero, and what possible measures we can do to prevent new outbreaks. As far as I know, the WHO has not done that research, and instead they have fully endorsed China's version as the only truth. Think about it, if this had happened in North Korea, and the regimen's scientists were diverting an accidental leak, the rest of the world would be asking to take a look into it with our own specialists. Or, on the other hand, if this had happened in a free country like the United States or Denmark, the official story would be trusted by the international community and the case could be closed, with all speculation being dismissed.I am sure we can agree that China lies in a middle point between those tow extremes--Forich (talk) 18:47, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
- "once-in-a-millenium-pandemic" ? Are you saying that during the medieval period people over 80yo were surviving easily to a new strain of coronavirus ? Iluvalar (talk) 20:00, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
- I understand perfectly well, and I'm not going to get involved in political speculation. The scientific evidence has thus far been unambiguous, e.g.
- Nature:
Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus.
- Cell Press:
...SARS-CoV-2 undoubtedly has a zoonotic origin...
- National Science Review:
...Our results suggest that the development of new variations in functional sites in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike seen in SARS-CoV-2 and viruses from pangolin SARSr-CoVs are likely caused by mutations and natural selection...
- CSIRO:
...SARS-CoV-2 is the seventh coronavirus known to infect humans, and the third zoonotic virus after SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV...
- IJBS:
The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 follows the general theme by which SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV arose. Whereas a bat beta-CoV sharing 95% nucleotide homology with SARS-CoV has been found, there also exists a bat-CoV sharing 96% nucleotide homology with SARS-CoV-2. Whereas civets and other animals in the markets have been found to harbour viruses identical to SARS-CoV, immediate intermediate hosts for SARS-CoV-2 have not been identified. Pangolin beta-CoVs strikingly homologous to SARS-CoV-2 have been found, indicating that pangolins might serve as one of intermediate hosts or pangolin betaCoVs could contribute gene fragments to the final version of SARS-CoV-2. Although questions remain, there is no evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is man-made either deliberately or accidentally.
- Zoological Research:
...there are several speculations or conspiracy theories that HCoV-19 was artificially generated in the laboratory (Andersen et al., 2020; Liu et al., 2020)... Based on the information and knowledge gained from past SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV epidemics, combined with the successful detection and isolation of SARS-like coronaviruses (Bat-CoVRaTG13) in bats (R. affinis) with over 95% similarity to HCoV-19, it can be postulated with a degree of confidence that this novel coronavirus likely also originated from bats (Zhou et al., 2020a).
- From a scientific perspective this is described as a conspiracy theory and should have no place in this article. -Darouet (talk) 21:21, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
- Iluvalar, the comparison with the black plague is irrelevant. My point holds even if we diminish Covid's severity to a "once-in-a-decade" pandemic. I hope that we agree that, given China's Comunist Party censuring behavior, it is our duty as wikipedians to discuss whether to move them down in our WP:RS scale of reliability.--Forich (talk) 21:47, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
- Darouet, this is a productive discussion, I like that you have moved over the terrain of providing sources. You seem open to discussing different views if backed by solid evidence stated in reliable sources. I am willing to engage and see whether we can reach a middle ground. Please provide a quote from any reliable source labeling the accidental leakage hypothesis as "conspiracy" or "fringe" or "out of the realms of possibility" that does not rely on any "Occam razor" sophisms.--Forich (talk) 22:09, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
- Did you read the sources I quoted above? -Darouet (talk) 23:16, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
- Darouet, I looked at the sources you quoted. I don't see why the "bio-engineered and weaponized" conspiracy theory has to be conflated with questioning whether a naturally occurring virus that mutated due to natural selection may have been studied in a lab and was accidentally released. The former theory is ruled out by your sources and seems prima facie highly implausible. The latter theory is not addressed by your sources and seems plausible. Azahariev (talk) 15:05, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- You did not read the sources: they specifically state that it is natural, and was not artificially created.
- In other news, it's been reported today that Trump has asked his intelligence agencies to find some way of showing that China created the virus. This request finds no support in scientific literature but I assume the pressure being placed by his administration will have some impact non-MEDRS, and on what people begin arguing here. -Darouet (talk) 15:46, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- Darouet, Accusing me of not reading the sources when I'm attempting to address them directly doesn't seem like you are assuming good faith on my part. Please be a little more charitable, in keeping with Wikipedia Etiquette. I am not making the claim that it's plausible that this virus was artificially created. As I stated in my previous comment, the question of whether a naturally occurring virus was accidentally leaked from a lab is the more plausible hypothesis in this line of reasoning. The sources you cited, as I understand them, don't address this. Azahariev (talk) 16:00, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- @Azahariev: thanks and my apologies, I misunderstood your comment. For what you're saying to be true, the WIV would have had to have located this highly virulent and deadly SARS-CoV-2 strain in Nature sometime in 2019, brought it to the lab, and lost it back into nature once more at the end of the year. I think scientists haven't considered that hypothesis because it's convoluted and preposterous enough to be outside the realm of reasonable investigation. -Darouet (talk) 17:07, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- Darouet, Accusing me of not reading the sources when I'm attempting to address them directly doesn't seem like you are assuming good faith on my part. Please be a little more charitable, in keeping with Wikipedia Etiquette. I am not making the claim that it's plausible that this virus was artificially created. As I stated in my previous comment, the question of whether a naturally occurring virus was accidentally leaked from a lab is the more plausible hypothesis in this line of reasoning. The sources you cited, as I understand them, don't address this. Azahariev (talk) 16:00, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- Darouet, I looked at the sources you quoted. I don't see why the "bio-engineered and weaponized" conspiracy theory has to be conflated with questioning whether a naturally occurring virus that mutated due to natural selection may have been studied in a lab and was accidentally released. The former theory is ruled out by your sources and seems prima facie highly implausible. The latter theory is not addressed by your sources and seems plausible. Azahariev (talk) 15:05, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- Did you read the sources I quoted above? -Darouet (talk) 23:16, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
- Darouet, this is a productive discussion, I like that you have moved over the terrain of providing sources. You seem open to discussing different views if backed by solid evidence stated in reliable sources. I am willing to engage and see whether we can reach a middle ground. Please provide a quote from any reliable source labeling the accidental leakage hypothesis as "conspiracy" or "fringe" or "out of the realms of possibility" that does not rely on any "Occam razor" sophisms.--Forich (talk) 22:09, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
- Iluvalar, the comparison with the black plague is irrelevant. My point holds even if we diminish Covid's severity to a "once-in-a-decade" pandemic. I hope that we agree that, given China's Comunist Party censuring behavior, it is our duty as wikipedians to discuss whether to move them down in our WP:RS scale of reliability.--Forich (talk) 21:47, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
- "once-in-a-millenium-pandemic" ? Are you saying that during the medieval period people over 80yo were surviving easily to a new strain of coronavirus ? Iluvalar (talk) 20:00, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
- Darouet: Why would a theory of accidental release be “convoluted and preposterous enough to be outside the realm of reasonable investigation”? It happened twice in Beijing with SARS, not to mention all the other times it has happened. Swood100 (talk) 20:12, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
@Swood100: all of those very dangerous lab leakages occurred with viruses that evolved in nature, caused epidemics, and were then stored in human laboratories for study. None of those viruses were created in laboratories: they all evolved naturally, which is what viruses have been doing for billions of years, long before you were born. It's what viruses will continue to do for billions of years into the future, long after you're gone. We know from SARS-CoV-2 genomics that this strain evolved quite recently. We also know from more general studies of coronaviruses that scientists have sampled only a tiny fraction of the coronavirus diversity that's present in nature. It would be truly incredible for scientists to have miraculously found and sampled this particle coronavirus strain in nature just after it evolved, but before it caused a pandemic. In the scenario being proposed by editors above who are clearly not biologists, SARS-CoV-2 was both present in nature in southeast China in October 2019, and was sampled and sitting in a freezer in a lab at the WIV at the same time. According to this scenario, the SARS-CoV-2 strain that's in nature for some reason doesn't infect any of the 350 million pigs, 1.3 billion people, or 5.5 billion chickens living in the country. But, one of a dozen researchers at the WIV makes a mistake, releases the same strain, and now, miraculously, it starts to infect people? -Darouet (talk) 11:47, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Darouet: It is well-documented that researchers from these labs visit obscure caves in order to capture bats in order to find ones that are infected with unknown viruses. They take the bats back to the lab in order to study the viruses. They claim to have discovered over a thousand new viruses in the last ten years or so. We know that the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) posted a job opening on December 24, 2019, asking for scientists to come research the relationship between the coronavirus and bats, in which they said “long-term research on the pathogenic biology of bats carrying important viruses has confirmed the origin of bats of major new human and livestock infectious diseases such as SARS and SADS, and a large number of new bat and rodent new viruses have been discovered and identified.”
- If they had left the bats in the obscure caves it is unlikely that they would have come into contact with any people. However, by capturing the bats they set in motion a sequence of possibilities for the virus to jump to humans. In the first place unsafe practices have been observed in a video of the bat capture procedure. Once the bats are taken to the lab and the viruses are extracted then they are just like any other pathogen that can be accidentally released. Is it hard to understand that such a virus poses little risk to humans if left in bat caves but substantially more risk if it is extracted from the cave and transported to a metropolitan area with a population of 11 million?
- We know that a Chinese researcher published a research paper in which he concluded that “the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan,” and gave his reasons for thinking so. Later he retracted the paper because “it was not supported by direct proofs,” but he obviously didn’t find it incredible that the virus might have escaped from the lab and would no doubt have liked to see whatever evidence was available from the WIV.
- We don’t know that this virus was found and sampled just after it evolved. It may have been circulating among the bats for a long time. Could you clarify exactly what part of this scenario you find incredible? Swood100 (talk) 15:18, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Swood100: first, you didn't respond to my point that all the lab outbreak examples you linked above are cases where a virus evolved in nature, infected humans and/or their domesticated animals, and were then studied in labs that, from time to time, had a leak. None of those cases involved a virus held in a lab that had never caused an outbreak, but then left the lab and did so. All evidence suggests SARS-CoV-2 is just like all those other viruses and associated epidemics.
- Second, there are some really fundamental aspects of viral evolution and transmission that you are misunderstanding, and this misunderstanding follows directly from your confusion above regarding other viruses and past outbreaks. Not understanding that humans are surrounded by viruses constantly, that those viruses are constantly evolving, that viruses jump from species to species repeatedly, that they jump into humans too and have done so often in the past, you appear amazed when it happens yet one more time, and invoke human error or malign human agency. Those bats are not in
"obscure caves"
. In coastal Guangdong, China's most populous province with 113 million people and a higher population density than any US state, samples from hundreds of bats living in caves just a few kilometers from towns or villages have shown many of coronavirus lineages in many different bat species [24]. 90% of villagers raise animals in their homes, 10% report seeing bats fly near their homes, and about 3% test positive for prior infection by random coronaviruses [25]. Bats surround us — I'm surprised if you live somewhere without them — and it's well known that they carry diseases that can spill over into humans particularly where bat, human, and domesticated animal populations are high, like SE Asia [26]. There's a reason why scientific papers have been warning about another outbreak coming for decades. You should try to learn something from these publications rather than blaming the outbreak on the scientists who've been warning you for years about this inevitability. -Darouet (talk) 18:52, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Second, there are some really fundamental aspects of viral evolution and transmission that you are misunderstanding, and this misunderstanding follows directly from your confusion above regarding other viruses and past outbreaks. Not understanding that humans are surrounded by viruses constantly, that those viruses are constantly evolving, that viruses jump from species to species repeatedly, that they jump into humans too and have done so often in the past, you appear amazed when it happens yet one more time, and invoke human error or malign human agency. Those bats are not in
- @Darouet:
None of those cases involved a virus held in a lab that had never caused an outbreak, but then left the lab and did so.
- @Darouet:
- I’m sorry, but if a virus is being held in a lab how are the chances of its accidental release affected by whether or not it has ever before infected humans?
you appear amazed when it happens yet one more time, and invoke human error or malign human agency.
- No, my amazement or lack thereof is irrelevant. My only point is that if American intelligence agencies are assessing whether the virus might have escaped from a laboratory at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, that should be reported by Wikipedia.
Those bats are not in "obscure caves". In coastal Guangdong, China's most populous province with 113 million people and a higher population density than any US state, samples from hundreds of bats living in caves just a few kilometers from towns or villages have shown many of coronavirus lineages in many different bat species [24].
- The reference you supplied identified a particular cave containing the particular bats they are interested in — those related to SARS:
- "Furthermore, the building blocks for SARS-CoV were identified from eleven different ARSr-CoV viral strains in a five-year surveillance program in a cave inhabited by multiple species of horseshoe bats in Yunnan Province, China [62]."
- This is a reference to a study also described in this article as follows:
- "The cave, whose exact location is being kept secret, is inhabited by wild bats that have been found to carry a “rich gene pool of SARS-related coronaviruses,” said Peter Daszak, the president of EcoHealth Alliance, a U.S. nonprofit organization that monitors wildlife diseases that could pose a pandemic risk."
- So it’s true that bats are everywhere and that they are frequently infected with coronaviruses. But the researchers are not interested in just every coronavirus, but in particular ones that are SARS-related, and these are located in a specific cave, the location of which is kept secret. That sounds like the definition of an “obscure cave.” If they had left the bats in those caves it is far less likely that the viruses they contain would have come into contact with any people. We are not dealing here with the run-of-the-mill bats that live everywhere. Those bats aren’t infected with SARS-related strains.
and about 3% test positive for prior infection by random coronaviruses [25]
- Random coronaviruses are not a particularly great threat. A few strains of the common cold consist of random coronaviruses. If they spill over then nobody notices. Trying to capture and work with SARS-related coronaviruses, on the other hand is a high-risk activity. — Swood100 (talk) 20:40, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Swood100: The misunderstandings between us are too great to be resolved by discussion here. I urge you to read some of the papers I cited linked above. In particular, despite our differences of opinion, I think you will find this one very interesting: [27]. Best, -Darouet (talk) 20:48, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Per my comment on the same discussion at SARS-CoV-2: Wikipedia should not be promogulating politically motivated conspiracy theories about the virus. Saying that natural selection is unable of creating such an effective virus and therefore it must have been lab created is idiotic and obviously false considering the many pandemics throughout history have happened with no genomic editing technology whatsoever, and the crude nature of current genomic editing technology. The nature of this argument feels similar to that of Ancient astronauts, where of course "primitive" indigenous people can't have created complex works of architecture therefore it must be aliens. It's the same fallacy. We now know that the US Government is pushing this conspiracy theory to cover for their own failures. (Mazzetti, Mark; Barnes, Julian E.; Wong, Edward; Goldman, Adam (2020-04-30). "Trump Officials Are Said to Press Spies to Link Virus and Wuhan Labs". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-04-30.) Hemiauchenia (talk) 16:50, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- @Hemiauchenia: Thank you. -Darouet (talk) 17:07, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- Darouet, yes I read the sources you quoted above. In my opinion they do not address directly the accidental-leakage hypothesis, provided that we consider it to state that a natural virus that got in the lab (somehow) and accidentally leaked out of it. The middle ground that I hope we can reach looks like this:
- "The virus is natural, and some of the earliest cases detected in December 2019 happened to be in Wuhan, China. Patient-zero, that is, the first person to become infected from an animal, has not been discovered yet. However, it is conjectured that a few places in Wuhan may have had favorable conditions for the virus to make the jump to patient-zero. Of these, the most discussed in the cientific community is the Seafood market in Huanan. Another plausible place for the original jump to happen may be the Wuhan Institute of Virology, although experts cited by BBC and Reuters, disregard it judging that it is 'highly unlikely', purely speculative, and unfounded in any cientific evidence." --Forich (talk) 05:13, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- Given the truth of those final ten words, the whole final sentence should not be used. HiLo48 (talk) 05:17, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- Given that we can't accurately call it "misinformation" until it's disproven ("misinformation" is an extremely strong term), and the hypothesis itself has been bandied about enough to be notable in its own right, where do you suggest it be placed? I suppose one solution is to rename the "misinformation" article to something less prejudicial and creating a "misinformation" heading in said article for the known false stuff; what do others think of that? Magic9mushroom (talk) 06:14, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- HiLo48, thats a respectable opinion. If other editors feel the same way we can opt to omit any reference to the hypothesis, at least in this article. Per the suggestion of Magic9mushroom, maybe the appropiate place to mention the hypothesis is in the "misinformation" entry, after relabeling the whole entry or a section of it to a less prejudicial name. My opinion is that the average reader would never get to that page, so that's why I'm discussing to give it a brief mention here at the pandemic entry.--Forich (talk) 08:12, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- By the way, there is a recent update on the coverage of the story, by the Washington Post. It provides no new evidence, but I find it much more benevolent to the hypothesis. Please watch it and discuss here.--Forich (talk) 08:17, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- HiLo48, thats a respectable opinion. If other editors feel the same way we can opt to omit any reference to the hypothesis, at least in this article. Per the suggestion of Magic9mushroom, maybe the appropiate place to mention the hypothesis is in the "misinformation" entry, after relabeling the whole entry or a section of it to a less prejudicial name. My opinion is that the average reader would never get to that page, so that's why I'm discussing to give it a brief mention here at the pandemic entry.--Forich (talk) 08:12, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- Given that we can't accurately call it "misinformation" until it's disproven ("misinformation" is an extremely strong term), and the hypothesis itself has been bandied about enough to be notable in its own right, where do you suggest it be placed? I suppose one solution is to rename the "misinformation" article to something less prejudicial and creating a "misinformation" heading in said article for the known false stuff; what do others think of that? Magic9mushroom (talk) 06:14, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- Given the truth of those final ten words, the whole final sentence should not be used. HiLo48 (talk) 05:17, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- "The virus is natural, and some of the earliest cases detected in December 2019 happened to be in Wuhan, China. Patient-zero, that is, the first person to become infected from an animal, has not been discovered yet. However, it is conjectured that a few places in Wuhan may have had favorable conditions for the virus to make the jump to patient-zero. Of these, the most discussed in the cientific community is the Seafood market in Huanan. Another plausible place for the original jump to happen may be the Wuhan Institute of Virology, although experts cited by BBC and Reuters, disregard it judging that it is 'highly unlikely', purely speculative, and unfounded in any cientific evidence." --Forich (talk) 05:13, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
Misinformation is indeed a strong word, and in this case wholly appropriate. -Darouet (talk) 15:02, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
Here are some articles about this subject, if anybody is interested:
David A (talk) 15:30, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- What were the odds that the virus get first detected near one of the only super advanced coronavirus lab in the world able to detect it ? hmmmm. Those Chinese people are suspicious and evil. They must be hidding the WP:TRUTH. If only i could decipher the puzzle. But why does the virus was detected near a lab that CAN ! What was the odds !! Wake-up sheeples they are controlling us. Iluvalar (talk) 16:32, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- Mind your tone please. I am just suspicious given the tyrannical Chinese government's human rights track record. David A (talk) 05:34, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- Iluvalar [editors should treat each other with respect and civility]. This is uncalled for. Please address the sources and provide good faith counterarguments and sources, or abstain from the discussion. It's hard enough as it is to figure out a middle ground on these issues without this turning into a name-calling match. Azahariev (talk) 23:47, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
This discussion at times resembles slapstick, or “who’s on first,” when the statement “the theory is that the virus accidentally escaped from the lab” is answered by “scientific consensus is that the virus is of natural origin.” This is a non sequitur. It is not in doubt that the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) was studying bat viruses. They posted a job opening on November 18, 2019, “asking for scientists to come research the relationship between the coronavirus and bats.” So what is being investigated is whether they accidentally released one of these viruses. I don’t think that anybody here is arguing the non-natural origin theory, so could we just have a moratorium on the refutation of that theory?
I wish we could also have a moratorium on solemn pronouncements that Wikipedia is not the place for conspiracy theories. Everybody will agree with that, but it begs the question. Why is a theory that a virus was accidentally released from a lab a conspiracy theory? We know that similar viruses have been accidentally released from high security labs many times.
Incontrovertible proof is not the requirement for inclusion of a theory in a Wikipedia article. It is enough that the theory is given credence by serious and responsible people. Richard Ebright, a Rutgers microbiologist and biosafety expert said “The possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident cannot and should not be dismissed.” Ebright also referred to a publically-available video that he said showed CDC workers collecting bats with inadequate personal protective equipment and unsafe practices, including exposed faces and wrists and a lack of goggles or face shields. Is Ebright a conspiracy theorist? There are other serious and responsible people who, in order to find all available facts, have asked China for access to the WIV. What is the reason for refusing to report these requests?
Where is the reference to a source showing conclusively that this is a conspiracy theory or that this virus did not escape from the WIV? I have seen references to articles but I would like to be directed to the specific language in that article that demonstrates conclusively that the accidental release theory cannot be held by any serious person. Swood100 (talk) 21:38, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- Scientific consensus is used as a means to squash anything new coming to prominence that has not been first brought to public attention by one of those scientists. Centuries ago, administrators of the then-equivalent of Wikipedia would have hastily deleted any mention of medical treatment that did not involve bleeding or the use of leeches. Well obviously that was ridiculous. And it is equally ridiculous that the stunning coincidence of a lab which ‘researched’ viruses of the most infectious kind just happened to be located a few hundred metres away from the originating epicentre of the most infectious novel viral epidemic the world has experienced for over 100 years can not even be mentioned on the Wikipedia page about the epidemic without people suggesting that that fact be classified as disinformation or worse, a conspiracy theory. Are those people in the pocket of the CCP? Not to give space to the fact I have outlined in the article is tantamount to criminal disinformation. There is, you know, disinformation through deliberate omission of key information. That is what we have at the moment. Boscaswell talk 22:45, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- Swood100 Well said! For some reason, the main article on the Coronavirus pandemic is completely silent on an important developing story about the origin, a story that is in complete concordance with the scientific consensus. Yet, in the section discussing origin we have this: On 13 March 2020, an unverified report from the South China Morning Post suggested a case traced back to 17 November 2019 (a 55-year-old from Hubei) may have been the first infection. (Bolding mine).
- This wikipedia article is absolutely failing to live up to [neutrality standards]. From the Five Pillars page: "We avoid advocacy, and we characterize information and issues rather than debate them. In some areas there may be just one well-recognized point of view; in others, we describe multiple points of view, presenting each accurately and in context rather than as "the truth" or "the best view". " We are failing the public by not including information about this origin theory. Azahariev (talk) 23:42, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. WP:FRINGE says that "A conjecture that has not received critical review from the scientific community or that has been rejected may be included in an article about a scientific subject only if other high-quality reliable sources discuss it as an alternative position." So far, no such source ("speculations" and "not discounting the possibility" are not "high-quality reliable sources") has been presented. A quick seach on Pubmed for "covid origin" or "covid leak" does not yield any such results. What I do find, such as this example here; fail to mention it, and instead the only origin they discuss seriously is it crossing over from animals (bats, or some others) to humans:
"Bats have been recognized as a natural reservoir and vectors of a variety of coronaviruses, and these viruses have crossed species barriers to infect humans and many different kinds of animals, including avians, rodents, and chiropters [83,84]. While the origin of COVID-19 is still being investigated, COVID-19 has features typical of the Coronaviridae family and was classified in the beta-coronavirus 2b lineage."
The theory of accidental release, as far as we know, is wild speculation; and it being mentioned in news sources because the US governement mentioned it is not conclusive proof of anything else but it being mentioned by the US govt... The guideline to follow here is (as described previously), of course, to prefer topic-specific peer-reviewed publications over newspapers. The lack of mention in proper sources makes this a fringe theory and mentioning it in the article would be much more WP:UNDUE than ignoring what appear to be, so far, the ramblings of an old man who is definitively not an expert on this matter... 107.190.33.254 (talk) 02:45, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- What the scientific community has said is that they have been shown no evidence that the virus was released from a lab. The U.S. government has formally asked China for access to the Wuhan Institute of Virology in order to examine the evidence there. Why is this request not noteworthy? Swood100 (talk) 14:24, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- If the scientific community has said there is no evidence (i.e. that sounds rather like a rejection of this theory), then we have no reason to include this in the main article here. The US government asking China (their main competitor) for access to a lab to verify a conspiracy theory might go in the article about that government's response to the pandemic (with care taken to ensure it is not presented as a fact or a majority opinion per WP:UNDUE) which is not here but at COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. In any case WP should not be spreading uncorroborated speculation - WP:MEDRS are what we should be looking at. 107.190.33.254 (talk) 15:19, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
If the scientific community has said there is no evidence (i.e. that sounds rather like a rejection of this theory), then we have no reason to include this in the main article here.
- They didn’t say that there is no evidence. They said that they have not been shown any evidence. Furthermore, saying that they have seen no evidence of X is not the same as saying that there is evidence of not-X. One can believe that something is true and yet have no evidence that it is true. Police may believe that X is the murderer but have no evidence. This leads them to look for evidence. In this case they are doing that by asking for admission to the places where they believe that the evidence might be found.
- If police announce that they are looking for a certain car in connection with a murder because they believe that evidence will be found in it, that is reportable on the Wikipedia page dealing with the murder regardless of whether a majority of the Wikipedia editors on that page disagree with the police as to the likelihood of finding evidence there. The fact that the police are looking for a certain car is not uncorroborated speculation. It is a fact. — Swood100 (talk) 18:44, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- "Have not been shown any evidence", for all intents and purposes, is equivalent to "there is no evidence as of this moment". In any case, logically, the burden of proof lies on those proposing an idea, and since there is no evidence to support Trump's theory (as widely reported by the media, who clearly say that no supporting evidence has been presented), we should not include it. And, no, actually, the example you give would probably not be reported on such a hypothetical WP page because Wikipedia is not a newspaper and we don't provide live 24-hour coverage of the subject, unlike newspapers. (eg. [28] [29] [30]). What we do provide is relevant coverage based on high-quality topic-related sources (i.e. WP:MEDRS). As has been shown below, scholarly journals do not consider this theory seriously; and the mainstream media are widely reporting that Trump's claim is utter hoghwash, with even his own advisors and intelligence agencies contradicting him on the topic. Merely because something has been "investigated" or "not been deemed impossible" (see, again, proving a negative) does not mean we should mention it, i.e. this is literally the idiomatic teapot. 107.190.33.254 (talk) 19:45, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- If police announce that they are looking for a certain car in connection with a murder because they believe that evidence will be found in it, that is reportable on the Wikipedia page dealing with the murder regardless of whether a majority of the Wikipedia editors on that page disagree with the police as to the likelihood of finding evidence there. The fact that the police are looking for a certain car is not uncorroborated speculation. It is a fact. — Swood100 (talk) 18:44, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
In terms of familiarity Coronavirus is more familiar than COVID. Georgeadelmoureed (talk) 11:57, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
Lab accident
Is this theory covered anywhere? I only saw it in two actual newspapers. This is the closest thing I found online.— Vchimpanzee • talk • contributions • 18:31, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- Misinformation_related_to_the_2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic#Accidental_leakage — Goszei (talk) 18:54, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- Okay, so it's not a credible theory. I haven't read the article yet. I'm waiting to read in the newspaper I subscribe to. It's still outside but I have access to NewsBank so I saw the headlines.— Vchimpanzee • talk • contributions • 19:13, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- In the press conference version I had access on youtube, Trump specifically refused to comment on the theory. He did said the US intelligence would comment about this soon. I guess we'll be waiting for that. Iluvalar (talk) 20:36, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- Okay, so it's not a credible theory. I haven't read the article yet. I'm waiting to read in the newspaper I subscribe to. It's still outside but I have access to NewsBank so I saw the headlines.— Vchimpanzee • talk • contributions • 19:13, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- No, the WHO did not dismiss Trump’s theory. The issue here is not whether the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) genetically modified the bat virus and so “created” it. The only important thing is whether they released it into the general population. When Trump talks about the WIV being the “origin of the virus” he is talking about the starting point of the pandemic. Even if the virus is of natural origin (as the WHO said) the WIV would be the starting point of the pandemic if they had captured a bat that carried the virus, were currently experimenting with it, and accidentally released it. This is the critical question, and the WHO did not contradict this.
- The Washington Post reported that U.S. Embassy officials visited the WIV several times and sent two official warnings back to Washington about inadequate safety at the lab. Swood100 (talk) 19:39, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- I fixed this a little because one must be very careful here to describe exactly what the cited sources tell. The page currently cites this article. According to it, "Based on their genomic sequencing analysis, Andersen and his collaborators concluded that the most likely origins for SARS-CoV-2 followed one of two possible scenarios. In one scenario, the virus evolved to its current pathogenic state through natural selection in a non-human host and then jumped to humans. ... In the other proposed scenario, a non-pathogenic version of the virus jumped from an animal host into humans and then evolved to its current pathogenic state within the human population..." The article is dated March 17. According to all publications including newer ones (e.g. an article in PNAS), there is no any evidence of the 2nd scenario so far, so it is probably the 1st (welcome to correct if I am mistaken). My very best wishes (talk) 20:41, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- P.S. I fixed it simply to reflect what the source tells. But of course the leakage and even the manufacturing the virus can never be disproven by the sequence analysis. As cited here [31], "Although researchers will likely continue to sample and sequence coronaviruses in bats to determine the origin of SARS-CoV-2, "you can't answer this question through genomics alone," said Dr. Alex Greninger, an assistant professor in the Department of Laboratory Medicine and an assistant director of the Clinical Virology Laboratory at the University of Washington Medical Center. That's because it's impossible to definitively tell whether SARS-CoV-2 emerged from a lab or from nature based on genetics alone. For this reason, it's really important to know which coronaviruses were being studied at WIV. "It really comes down to what was in the lab," Greninger told Live Science." My very best wishes (talk) 20:53, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- Note that none of the two currently used sources support the phrase tells about "scientific consensus". They do tell about sequence analysis as the basis for the conclusion. My very best wishes (talk) 01:59, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Pinging User:MarioGom as the originator(?) of the current wording, who noted "it is basically every WP:MEDRS dealing with the topic all the way from February to April" that speaks of a natural origin; pinging also User:Robertpedley as someone who has, IIRC, also supported the wording: would either of you like to add sources explicitly using the word "consensus" or defend it as a summary of the totality of sources? -sche (talk) 04:45, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Yes I think I helped a bit in this area. Maybe it's a bit WP:SYNTH so I would accept rewording to say something like "Genetic sequencing of the virus is consistent with a natural origin" then a couple of cites.Robertpedley (talk) 10:55, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- This is not sequencing (i.e. determining the sequence), but sequence analysis, a method which is very useful, but has obvious limitations. For example, it can not say which specimens were in the lab in Wuhan. "Natural origin" can mean a lot of different things. That must be clarified. Anyone is welcome to include more sources and rephrase to reflect what these sources say. My very best wishes (talk) 14:51, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Here is one of the problems with sequence analysis. This is sequence-based tree of SARS-Cov-2 related coronaviruses. The key sequences, in particular RatG13, were determined in the lab in Wuhan. However, according to Richard H. Ebright, this lab keeps a lot of sequences unpublished (RatG13 sequence was kept in secret for 7 years, as follows from public database records, see this expert discussion used in this in Science article). What exactly sequences they release will determine this evolutionary tree and conclusions from the sequence alignments. So, basically, if the lab is engaged in a cover-up (and not publishing sequences for 7 years is extremely unusual), they can decide what conclusions other people will make from the sequence analysis. My very best wishes (talk) 15:07, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Yes I think I helped a bit in this area. Maybe it's a bit WP:SYNTH so I would accept rewording to say something like "Genetic sequencing of the virus is consistent with a natural origin" then a couple of cites.Robertpedley (talk) 10:55, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
This is from the Wall Street Journal:
- "The Wall Street Journal and other news organizations previously have reported that American intelligence agencies are assessing whether the virus might have escaped from a laboratory at the Wuhan Institute of Virology."
What objection is there to reporting that American intelligence agencies are assessing whether the virus might have escaped from a laboratory at the Wuhan Institute of Virology? — Swood100 (talk) 18:39, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- The WSJ is probably not a WP:MEDRS. "have reported that American intelligence agencies are assessing whether the virus might have escaped"... is not sufficient "proof" that this is a scientifically significant alternative opinion; merely that this conspiracy theory has been mentioned by the POTUS - whose response to the situation has been widely criticized, and he is not a reliable source for much in this context... 107.190.33.254 (talk) 18:59, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- The Wall Street Journal is a reliable source.
- How about this from the Wall Street Journal:
- “The U.S. intelligence community publicly confirmed it is trying to determine whether the coronavirus may have escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan, the city where the pandemic began.”
- Or, if you prefer, from CNN:
- “US intelligence and national security officials say the United States government is looking into the possibility that the novel coronavirus spread from a Chinese laboratory rather than a market, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter who caution it is premature to draw any conclusions.”
- Or NBC:
- “The U.S. intelligence community is examining whether the coronavirus that caused the global pandemic emerged accidentally from a Chinese research lab studying diseases in bats, current and former U.S. intelligence officials tell NBC News.” — Swood100 (talk) 21:06, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- There is a difference between the WSJ (or any of the sources you mention) being a RS for general topics (which it is) and it being a sufficiently high-quality RS for medicine-related topics (which, as I said above, it probably is not). None of the sources you quote (some of them are two weeks old) say anything different than the WSJ; i.e. they all use highly uncertain language such as "trying to determine"; "looking into the possibility"; "examining whether...". In other words, they are all reporting the same thing. (And the theory, while not entirely discredited, has been many times rejected in news medias). The US intelligence community "looking into it" might be worthy of mention in the news, but WP is not a newspaper and I doubt we should include every possible theory into this article unless it has been properly verified in more scientific literature. As I said, the more proper place for this kind of wild speculation is at Misinformation related to the COVID-19 pandemic. 107.190.33.254 (talk) 21:29, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- That the U.S. intelligence community is investigating whether the coronavirus escaped from a lab is not a theory that has been discredited or many times rejected in the news media or wild speculation. Do you have a reference for that?
- That the U.S. intelligence community is investigating whether the coronavirus escaped from a lab is not a scientific issue or a medicine-related topic, and vetting of it would not take place in scientific literature.
- Here’s part of a press release from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence:
- “As we do in all crises, the Community’s experts respond by surging resources and producing critical intelligence on issues vital to U.S. national security. The IC will continue to rigorously examine emerging information and intelligence to determine whether the outbreak began through contact with infected animals or if it was the result of an accident at a laboratory in Wuhan.”
- What’s the rationale for the position that the actions of the Intelligence Community are irrelevant to the search for the origin of the pandemic? — Swood100 (talk) 22:03, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- So what; they are merely "rigorously examining information" (and, in the linked press release, they do not mention the "lab accident" theory at all, only concurring with the scientific consensus that the "virus was not manmade or genetically modified"). Unless they come out with a statement saying that they have found significant evidence in favour of this, for the moment, WP:FRINGE theory, we have no good reason to include the fact that they are investigating it in the article; since the current evidence as reported in scientific journals and mainstream media is that the virus is closely related to bat and other animal coronaviruses and this is the most likely origin. 107.190.33.254 (talk) 22:53, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
Scientific consensus
Scientific consensus so far is that this coronavirus, like other coronaviruses and other viruses that have caused pandemics, has a natural origin. To borrow from Rotideypoc41352's earlier post,
We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin.
— Calisher, Charles; Carroll, Dennis; Colwell, Rita; Corley, Ronald B; Daszak, Peter; Drosten, Christian; et al. (19 February 2020). "Statement in support of the scientists, public health professionals, and medical professionals of China combatting COVID-19". The Lancet. 395 (10226). doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30418-9.{{cite journal}}
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And quoting from sources I cited above (just a few of many that are available if you consult scientific literature):
Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus.
...SARS-CoV-2 undoubtedly has a zoonotic origin...
...Our results suggest that the development of new variations in functional sites in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike seen in SARS-CoV-2 and viruses from pangolin SARSr-CoVs are likely caused by mutations and natural selection...
...SARS-CoV-2 is the seventh coronavirus known to infect humans, and the third zoonotic virus after SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV...
IJBS:
The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 follows the general theme by which SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV arose. Whereas a bat beta-CoV sharing 95% nucleotide homology with SARS-CoV has been found, there also exists a bat-CoV sharing 96% nucleotide homology with SARS-CoV-2. Whereas civets and other animals in the markets have been found to harbour viruses identical to SARS-CoV, immediate intermediate hosts for SARS-CoV-2 have not been identified. Pangolin beta-CoVs strikingly homologous to SARS-CoV-2 have been found, indicating that pangolins might serve as one of intermediate hosts or pangolin betaCoVs could contribute gene fragments to the final version of SARS-CoV-2. Although questions remain, there is no evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is man-made either deliberately or accidentally.
...there are several speculations or conspiracy theories that HCoV-19 was artificially generated in the laboratory (Andersen et al., 2020; Liu et al., 2020)... Based on the information and knowledge gained from past SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV epidemics, combined with the successful detection and isolation of SARS-like coronaviruses (Bat-CoVRaTG13) in bats (R. affinis) with over 95% similarity to HCoV-19, it can be postulated with a degree of confidence that this novel coronavirus likely also originated from bats (Zhou et al., 2020a).
Scientists are basically unanimous that the origin is natural, and the evidence isn't just the RNA sequence, though of course genetics is integrally tied to every aspect of modern biology. -Darouet (talk) 11:35, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- It is fine to say something like "not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus" [references]. That is what I did. It is also important to notice what the conclusion was based on, and that is sequence analysis. If there was something else, we can say "based on [something else]" [refs]. However, which of these sources tells "scientific consensus"? None of them does. This is because establishing what exactly a scientific consensus on highly controversial subjects (such as that one) is a difficult matter. Many different views were published. In the absence of very strong sources saying just that, what you did was WP:OR. This is not your (or my) business to decide what is scientific consensus. My very best wishes (talk) 14:40, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Darouet: I actually took that from MarioGom's comments at /Archive 31#'Natural' origins?. Intriguing pattern of people ignoring a pattern of a diverse group of people agreeing on a set of facts. Absolutely fascinating. Rotideypoc41352 (talk · contribs) 15:45, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- This is apparently the publication in The Lancet [32]. Yes, there is a consensus of authors, but about what? It tells: We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin. Scientists from multiple countries have published and analysed genomes of the causative agent, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and they overwhelmingly conclude that this coronavirus originated in wildlife, as have so many other emerging pathogens. Yes, absolutely. There are no doubts the ancestor sequence originated from bat viruses, or as a result of recombination of RNA from viruses which came from bats, pangolins and possibly other animals. That follows from the sequence analysis. They also imply there is no evidence the virus was artificially engineered, although they did not say it exactly. Yes, there is no evidence. Does it tell the natural virus was not leaked from the lab? No. One just need to clarify what the "natural origin" means on our page. As a note of order, the publication in Lancet is a political statement, and it make false claim about "The rapid, open, and transparent sharing of data on this outbreak" [by China]. No, some of the early specimens have been destroyed [33]. My very best wishes (talk) 16:33, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Darouet: I actually took that from MarioGom's comments at /Archive 31#'Natural' origins?. Intriguing pattern of people ignoring a pattern of a diverse group of people agreeing on a set of facts. Absolutely fascinating. Rotideypoc41352 (talk · contribs) 15:45, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- You're ignoring all the other papers that report some variant of the same thing. Of course you won't understand scientific consensus if you choose to ignore it. -Darouet (talk) 18:55, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
FWIW - following "recent edits" added to "Misinformation related to the COVID-19 pandemic#Accidental leakage" may be relevant =>
[On May 2, 2020], Jamie Metzl, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, claimed the SARS-CoV-2 virus "likely" came from a Wuhan virology testing laboratory, based on "circumstantial evidence". He was quoted as saying, "I have no definitive way of proving this thesis."[1]
On April 30, 2020, the U.S. intelligence and scientific communities seemed to agree that the virus was natural—nonetheless, the White House seems to be promoting a contradictory message: "... the Covid-19 virus was not man-made or genetically modified." Asked on May 2, 2020, about that conclusion, Secretary of State Pompeo said he has "no reason to disbelieve" the intelligence community, despite comments earlier in the same interview that "the best experts so far seem to think it was man-made. I have no reason to disbelieve that at this point."[2]
- iac - Stay Safe and Healthy !! - Drbogdan (talk) 14:55, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
References
- ^ Raposa, Kenneth (May 1, 2020). "Wuhan Lab As Coronavirus Source Gains Traction". Forbes. Retrieved May 2, 2020.
- ^ Gan, Nectar (May 4, 2020). "China pushes back against US claims that coronavirus originated from Wuhan lab". CNN News. Retrieved May 4, 2020.
- If they know something, they must publicly disclose what it is, with evidence. Otherwise, everyone will think this just another nonsense coming from White House. My very best wishes (talk) 15:28, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Comment Should point out that there appears to be a discussion on the same subject (i.e. origin as a lab accident) higher on the talk page. In the spirit of not wasting our time maybe we should merge the two discussions (or close one of them)? In any case neither of them has convinced anyone but the editors proposing it to include this nonsense in the article... 107.190.33.254 (talk) 15:31, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Here is the bottom line. Not only there is no scientific consensus on the exact origin of the COVID-19, but it is simply that no one knows the exact origin of COVID-19 (bats, pangolins, another intermediate host, recombination, whatever). To determine its origin, whatever it might be, one must conduct a large-scale investigation by multiple teams, most of which should be on-site, i.e. in China, exactly as this commentary in Science tells. However, China does not allow it. Why? My very best wishes (talk) 19:27, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Separately from the comment below: the article you link to also says of the lab accident theory that "So far, however, the assertions that the new virus was in that facility have not been backed by hard evidence, and some scientists are skeptical of the escape claim, saying it is more likely that SARS-CoV-2 naturally emerged elsewhere." In any case, the main topic discussed is not this conspiracy theory but the overall lack of Chinese transparency (which is nothing new) 107.190.33.254 (talk) 21:11, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- the assertions that the new virus was in that facility have not been backed by hard evidence, and some scientists are skeptical of the escape claim, saying it is more likely that SARS-CoV-2 naturally emerged elsewhere.. Yes, I am also "skeptical" and think "it is more likely...". However, there are way too many strange things around this. For example, here is excellent paper by Dr. Shi Zhengli on the evolution of coronaviruses published in 2018. Here is my question: why did not she include in the analysis the sequence of RatG13 (the closest relative of COVID-19) which their lab had determined in 2013? Why they kept it in secret until 2020? Any explanation? My very best wishes (talk) 21:26, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- I don't know. Maybe because, when writing a paper (on any subject), you include only the most relevant information? The paper does mention sequences with up to "97.2% amino acid sequence identity." (which, I assume, is also pretty close to the RatG13 sequence). Is this criticism based upon any other source or is it just your own? In which case it is nothing more but additional, wild, uncorroborated speculation which is highly irrelevant to this discussion. 107.190.33.254 (talk) 21:41, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Oh no, this is sequence identity to SARS-CoV, i.e. SARS-1, not SARS-Cov-2. Here is phylogeny tree online. The entire SARS-Cov-2 (COVID-19) subfamily seems to be missing for beta-coronaviruses in the paper in Nature by Shi Zhengli. Regardless, keeping an important RatG13 sequence unpublished for 7 years is a red flag, given what we know now about COVID-19. If, as Richard H. Ebright claims, the Wuhan lab did not publish a lot of other sequences, that could explain why the COVID-19 subfamily includes just a few members in the phylogeny diagram online. Red flag. My very best wishes (talk) 23:30, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- In whose opinion is it a red flag. Yours? That is once again WP:OR and we shouldn't be wasting our time on it. If the paper is on SARS-1; then it is no wonder that a sequence which is not more closely related to it than others is not mentioned, there being, of course, plenty of known coronavirus sequences (see [34]). I would assume that only the most relevant ones were selected for comparison. 107.190.33.254 (talk) 23:51, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- No, it was not paper about SARS-1, but about alpha, beta, gamma and delta coronaviruses, with an emphasis on all beta. Yes, there many sequences now, in part because of the pandemic. There were much less in 2018, when the paper was published. And no, RatG13 sequence is (and was) extremely important for the sequence analysis as one of the highly divergent (also check the online tree). My very best wishes (talk) 00:08, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- "And no, RatG13 sequence is (and was) extremely important"[citation needed] Please provide a reliable source for your otherwise WP:OR criticism; otherwise we're not making any progress. 107.190.33.254 (talk) 00:48, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- No, it was not paper about SARS-1, but about alpha, beta, gamma and delta coronaviruses, with an emphasis on all beta. Yes, there many sequences now, in part because of the pandemic. There were much less in 2018, when the paper was published. And no, RatG13 sequence is (and was) extremely important for the sequence analysis as one of the highly divergent (also check the online tree). My very best wishes (talk) 00:08, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- In whose opinion is it a red flag. Yours? That is once again WP:OR and we shouldn't be wasting our time on it. If the paper is on SARS-1; then it is no wonder that a sequence which is not more closely related to it than others is not mentioned, there being, of course, plenty of known coronavirus sequences (see [34]). I would assume that only the most relevant ones were selected for comparison. 107.190.33.254 (talk) 23:51, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Oh no, this is sequence identity to SARS-CoV, i.e. SARS-1, not SARS-Cov-2. Here is phylogeny tree online. The entire SARS-Cov-2 (COVID-19) subfamily seems to be missing for beta-coronaviruses in the paper in Nature by Shi Zhengli. Regardless, keeping an important RatG13 sequence unpublished for 7 years is a red flag, given what we know now about COVID-19. If, as Richard H. Ebright claims, the Wuhan lab did not publish a lot of other sequences, that could explain why the COVID-19 subfamily includes just a few members in the phylogeny diagram online. Red flag. My very best wishes (talk) 23:30, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- I don't know. Maybe because, when writing a paper (on any subject), you include only the most relevant information? The paper does mention sequences with up to "97.2% amino acid sequence identity." (which, I assume, is also pretty close to the RatG13 sequence). Is this criticism based upon any other source or is it just your own? In which case it is nothing more but additional, wild, uncorroborated speculation which is highly irrelevant to this discussion. 107.190.33.254 (talk) 21:41, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- the assertions that the new virus was in that facility have not been backed by hard evidence, and some scientists are skeptical of the escape claim, saying it is more likely that SARS-CoV-2 naturally emerged elsewhere.. Yes, I am also "skeptical" and think "it is more likely...". However, there are way too many strange things around this. For example, here is excellent paper by Dr. Shi Zhengli on the evolution of coronaviruses published in 2018. Here is my question: why did not she include in the analysis the sequence of RatG13 (the closest relative of COVID-19) which their lab had determined in 2013? Why they kept it in secret until 2020? Any explanation? My very best wishes (talk) 21:26, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Separately from the comment below: the article you link to also says of the lab accident theory that "So far, however, the assertions that the new virus was in that facility have not been backed by hard evidence, and some scientists are skeptical of the escape claim, saying it is more likely that SARS-CoV-2 naturally emerged elsewhere." In any case, the main topic discussed is not this conspiracy theory but the overall lack of Chinese transparency (which is nothing new) 107.190.33.254 (talk) 21:11, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
Leave the investigative journalism and scientific research to the experts - on WP we merely report what is the current, verifiable, consensus. Most reports from mainstream news (which is also the place where this wild speculation was first reported) currently discredit the theory; ex. [35] [36] [37]. What they describe as the "theory du jour" (Vox) and "a fringe theory" (Business Insider); and comment that "people pushing these sort of lines are doing everybody a disservice" (Guardian) deserves exactly no coverage nor any further waste of our time. If it goes anywhere it is in the misinformation article. The only time this should be revisited here is if and only if there is a substantial change in the matter. Until then (if that ever happens), I suggest that we add to the current consensus section that this fringe theory should not be mentioned. 107.190.33.254 (talk) 20:12, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Some people keeps ignoring WP:MEDRS, but medical sources are quite unanimous here. They agree the virus has a natural origin. They agree the virus is not engineered. They agree there is no evidence of HIV insertions and they agree that the original source for the HIV insertion theory was a bogus preprint paper that is now retracted. Some people also cites a paper published by Nature in 2015, ignoring the fact that Nature editors now added the following disclaimer:
Editors’ note, March 2020: We are aware that this story is being used as the basis for unverified theories that the novel coronavirus causing COVID-19 was engineered. There is no evidence that this is true; scientists believe that an animal is the most likely source of the coronavirus. [38]
Also, according to WP:RS, Shi Zhengli (mentioned above) is the subject of several conspiracy theories that made her the target of severe harassment, and we had to deal with these WP:BLP issues in the article about the subject. It's quite tiring to continue reading, over and over again, in every talk page all WP:FRINGE stuff that is going on at The Epoch Times, Daily Mail, Zero Hedge, Breitbart News, etc. --MarioGom (talk) 22:49, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Do you realize the the Huanan-market hypothesis had only circumstantial evidence? They reported it based on coincidences and guesses, given the places that some infected people said they had travelled recently. That was speculation, yet we reported it here in Wikipedia. Can the opponents of reporting the accidental-leakage hypothesis tell me why they remained so silent when wikipedians wrote about the speculation of Wuanan? It seems to me you are cherry-picking your battles.--Forich (talk) 16:01, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- 1. This is not a battlefield; 2. The Hunan-market hypothesis has been published in reliable, medical journals; and the section in the article about includes proper balancing material given the unsure status of this hypothesis in light of more recent developments. Suggesting that the lab-accident origin should be given equal weight is disingenuous; despite it being parroted around by the US government even their own intelligence services and advisors disagree with them; see [39][40]. As nicely put here, "Trump's Wuhan Lab Coronavirus conspiracy theory is bogus, according to, uh, everyone". 107.190.33.254 (talk) 16:16, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- Do you realize the the Huanan-market hypothesis had only circumstantial evidence? They reported it based on coincidences and guesses, given the places that some infected people said they had travelled recently. That was speculation, yet we reported it here in Wikipedia. Can the opponents of reporting the accidental-leakage hypothesis tell me why they remained so silent when wikipedians wrote about the speculation of Wuanan? It seems to me you are cherry-picking your battles.--Forich (talk) 16:01, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- Scientific journal articles also state that early on, we believed the market was the origin. By contrast, scientific journals describe the lab leak idea as unsupported at best, and a conspiracy theory at worst. -Darouet (talk) 16:06, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- The earliest recognised case of infection with SARS-CoV-2 was an elderly and infirm man who developed symptoms on 1 December 2019. None of his family members became infected, and the source of his virus remains unknown13. Furthermore, 14 of the first 41 cases had no contact with the seafood market 13. In another report, five of the first seven cases of COVID-19 had no link to the seafood market 14. Thus, it seems very likely that the virus was amplified in the market, but the market might not have been the site of origin nor the only source of the outbreak. A recent phylo-epidemiological study has suggested that the virus was circulating but unrecognised in November, and was imported to the seafood market from elsewhere, where it subsequently was amplified1 5.
- It does not mean it was leaked from a lab. Seriously, everyone just need to ignore all misinformation planted by unnamed "intelligence sources", Chinese government, Mr. President and even some journalists unfamiliar with the subject. My very best wishes (talk) 17:19, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- You're not understanding what I wrote. I didn't write that early on, scientific journal articles reported the virus came from the market. Instead, I wrote,
"journal articles also state that early on, we believed the market was the origin.
- In other words, it's a matter of scientific record that the very earliest investigations — before MEDRS were even available — led researchers to investigate the market. We came to learn not long after that the market was likely a spreading event, and not the source.
- So we haven't been selective in our use of MEDRS. -Darouet (talk) 18:26, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- It does not mean it was leaked from a lab. Seriously, everyone just need to ignore all misinformation planted by unnamed "intelligence sources", Chinese government, Mr. President and even some journalists unfamiliar with the subject. My very best wishes (talk) 17:19, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- Indeed, the early hypothesis that the outbreak originated at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was discarded in January/February. --MarioGom (talk) 17:29, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- @MarioGom: that's consistent with what I wrote above. -Darouet (talk) 18:26, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- The sources are far from being as clear cut on this as they are on the bogus Trump claim. For example, the article mentioned above by 'My very best wishes' states:
- Indeed, the early hypothesis that the outbreak originated at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was discarded in January/February. --MarioGom (talk) 17:29, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
"Thus, it seems very likely that the virus was amplified in the market, but the market might not have been the site of origin nor the only source of the outbreak. A recent phylo-epidemiological study has suggested that the virus was circulating but unrecognised in November, and was imported to the seafood market from elsewhere, where it subsequently was amplified[15]."
- So, the Hunan market "might not have been the site of origin" (this could be described better in the article); but it certainly had in early important role in spreading the virus. In any case, I think we can agree that the Trump-sponsored lab leak claim deserves no mention in the article; a further, more focused discussion should be started if we wish to improve the "epidemiology" section with other, more reliable information. 107.190.33.254 (talk) 17:52, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- As follows from quotation above and some other publications (for example[41]), first cases in China had happen in the middle of November, but the patient zero is unknown. Unless, the Chinese authorities do know, but do not want to tell because the patient zero worked in the lab, as Fox News reported [42]. And of course this controversy is highly notable (it affects relations between two big countries) and therefore must be included on the page. What was the "majority view" (i.e. no evidence of the leak) should also be noted. My very best wishes (talk) 21:02, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- I am not so sure that a so far unproven, evidence-less, possibly (likely?) politically-motivated and mostly rejected hypothesis should be presented on the main topic article. Maybe, as I said, on the pages for the the 2019-20 coronavirus pandemic in the United States (where this might go somewhere in "Government response" or the like) or the misinformation page (where it already, and rightly so, is). Also, in matters of US politics (anything involving Trump is probably in that category), Fox News is seen by some as a biased source and is in any case far from being acceptable as a WP:MEDRS to support the (again, wildly speculative) statement that "the Chinese authorities do know, but do not want to tell because the patient zero worked in the lab". In any case that article is more than two weeks old, and since then there have been many (from less partisan sources) articles claiming the exact opposite... 107.190.33.254 (talk) 21:22, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- By the responses of many of you opposing the reporting of the lab-accident origin I can conclude that: a speculative theory that is mentioned in scientific sources deserves more weight than a speculative theory that is mentioned in news's RS. So we agree that, at the core, we CAN include a mention on a speculative theory as long as the gold standard, scientific sources, report it. I will search in scientific journals on the fields of Biosafety Health and Foreign Affairs for the mention of the lab-accident hypothesis.
- I am not so sure that a so far unproven, evidence-less, possibly (likely?) politically-motivated and mostly rejected hypothesis should be presented on the main topic article. Maybe, as I said, on the pages for the the 2019-20 coronavirus pandemic in the United States (where this might go somewhere in "Government response" or the like) or the misinformation page (where it already, and rightly so, is). Also, in matters of US politics (anything involving Trump is probably in that category), Fox News is seen by some as a biased source and is in any case far from being acceptable as a WP:MEDRS to support the (again, wildly speculative) statement that "the Chinese authorities do know, but do not want to tell because the patient zero worked in the lab". In any case that article is more than two weeks old, and since then there have been many (from less partisan sources) articles claiming the exact opposite... 107.190.33.254 (talk) 21:22, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- If the wikipedians opposing its inclusion continue to do so, after seeing a scientific journal quote mentioning it, I guess I am gonna have to request for comment or arbitration on this matter. Its a bit hypocritical to defend unproven hypothesis as you did in January with the seafood market one; or to label the official US hypothesis as "political" while curiously omiting that the source used by MEDRS to report on the Hunan market in the first place was an official chinese news agency, which we can argue is as equally or more politically charged, under a cover-up scenario. I am gonna assume good faith of all of you (107.190.33.254, MarioGom, and Darouet), but let me politely ask you to explain again the consistency of your arguments, because it can mislead other wikipedians trying their best to understand the rules for inclusion.
- The lab accident theory, have been proved by many (specially, My very best wishes) to be a simple, sensible, hypothesis mentioned in RS all over the place. I have read thorugh all the Wikipedia pillars and there is no rule that Nature and Lancet should be the definitive filters for information included in Wikipedia, as I may be interpreting from the position of some of you. I am open to read a rebuttal to this and change my mind.--Forich (talk) 01:39, 6 May 2020 (UTC)
- The fact is that the Hunan seafood market theory and the "lab accident" theory are not on equivalent footing. Until further analysis showed that some cases were not linked to the seafood market, it seemed like a likely origin and even sources which question this status (i.e. the article quoted by My very best wishes (henceforth, MVBW); Mackenzie and Smith (2020)) still agree that it had a role in the early spread of the disease (and most scientific journals are independent of official Chinese news agencies...), and, if the text is rewritten to correct for this, I don't think anybody will have any objection to it's inclusion. In comparison, the only comment about the "lab accident" theory we have from a MEDRS is that "So far, however, the assertions that the new virus was in that facility have not been backed by hard evidence, and some scientists are skeptical of the escape claim, saying it is more likely that SARS-CoV-2 naturally emerged elsewhere." (the Science news article, emphasis mine). Despite the exceedingly cautious language, as Darouet points, this amounts to a thinly veiled statement that the prevailing theory is still natural zoonotic origin and that the "lab accident" theory has not gained traction in the scientific community. In any case, that should probably be treated as a news article from a reputable scientific publication, and it again doesn't "support" the theory, merely mentions it in a very passing manner.
- I am afraid that concerning your third paragraph, I have to strongly disagree. Besides some WP:OR criticism of a scientific paper and speculation (the latter, in my opinion, we should leave to the tabloids; the first of course has no place here), what has been presented in favour of the "lab accident" hypothesis is some news statement to the effect that it was being "investigated" by US intelligence agencies (possibly, following pressure by Trump) and reports that it was mentioned by Trump. In contrast, there are many reports that cast serious doubt on this, including from Trump's own advisors (as reported in the National Geographic, mentioned earlier by me) and from intelligence agencies (also mentioned earlier). To the WP:RS which were mentioned previously we can add this report from yesterday, which points out that the only specifics about the origin of the virus in a Chinese lab is a non-peer-reviewed, since retracted and disavowed two-page paper on the topic (thus likely to be, as Trump would have it, "Fake news!"). This interview with multiple scientists also presents multiple counter-arguments to the "lab accident" theory, first, on the likelihood of the origin being "natural" vs "lab":
- The lab accident theory, have been proved by many (specially, My very best wishes) to be a simple, sensible, hypothesis mentioned in RS all over the place. I have read thorugh all the Wikipedia pillars and there is no rule that Nature and Lancet should be the definitive filters for information included in Wikipedia, as I may be interpreting from the position of some of you. I am open to read a rebuttal to this and change my mind.--Forich (talk) 01:39, 6 May 2020 (UTC)
[...] Compare that, he says, to what we know about the labs: “If you look at the labs in Southeast Asia that have any coronaviruses in culture, there are probably two or three and they’re in high security. The Wuhan Institute of Virology does have a small number of bat coronaviruses in culture. But they’re not [the new coronavirus], SARS-CoV-2. There are probably half a dozen people that do work in those labs. So let’s compare 1 million to 7 million people a year [i.e. clarification from me based on the article: people who could have been exposed to various strains of bat coronaviruses through daily interaction] to half a dozen people; it’s just not logical.”
- On the actual similarity of the current strain to known sequences (one of the topics of OR criticism by MVBW):
Some have speculated that perhaps the new coronavirus is derived from RaTG13. Yet virologists say it’s very unlikely: A 4 percent difference in genome is actually huge in evolutionary terms. [...] However, he [i.e. a foreign scientist who has co-authored papers with the Wuhan researchers] said, the new coronavirus is only 80 percent similar to SARS-1 — again, a very big difference. “No one [in Wuhan] cultured viruses from those samples that were 20 percent different, i.e., no one had SARS-CoV-2 in culture. All of the hypotheses [of lab release] depend on them having it in culture or bats in a lab. No one’s got bats in a lab, it’s absolutely unnecessary and very difficult to do.”
- There are further points but the two here seem to be the most relevant in light of the discussion we have had so far.
- In light of this, and combining with the fact that the scientists from the Wuhan lab seem to be targets of multiple conspiracy theories due to this outbreak, I cannot see any equivalence between the two theories. One is, at the very least from a historiographic perspective, interesting; the other is a conspiracy theory which "is bogus, according to, uh, everyone"; and, as many conspiracy theories, it's sole logical grounding is that relies on the fact that it's difficult to prove a negative (it is much easier to simply go ahead with evidence-less, wild speculations). WP:UNDUE states that fringe theories with constitute only an extreme minority should not be mentioned. It is my opinion, based on the sources I have found so far, that this is the situation here. Of course, if you disagree with my assessment, then feel free to have an RfC on the issue, something of the like of "Should the theory about the accidental release of the virus from the Wuhan Institute of Virology be mentioned in the article?". 107.190.33.254 (talk) 03:21, 6 May 2020 (UTC)
WP:BOLD rewrite of virturally all of transmission
@Doc James: - just removing redundancy and following the WHO faq predominantly. I like explaining it to people that the surfaces are the small droplets, its the same method. And as I was saying during our dispute, the surfaces are not as important in WHO's opinion anymore.
WOuld appreciate a discussion of this as opposed to a complete rewrite! Thanks James. --Almaty (talk) 15:30, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
- that's a lot to rewrite IMO--Ozzie10aaaa (talk) 17:09, 30 April 2020 (UTC)\
- Yes done because the QnAs cited especially by the WHO and ECDC have been entirely rewritten, and they now synthesize the very same evidence we were trying to do. So the rewrite aims to follow WP:MEDRS and avoid WP:SYNTH, whilst giving the primary studies that the WHO ECDC and CDC use their WP:DUE weight. Also the previous revision repeated itself a lot. --Almaty (talk) 01:01, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- When something like this is done it would be better to include a WP:DIFF to help others see what you did. -- {{u|Gtoffoletto}} talk 07:44, 6 May 2020 (UTC)
- Yes done because the QnAs cited especially by the WHO and ECDC have been entirely rewritten, and they now synthesize the very same evidence we were trying to do. So the rewrite aims to follow WP:MEDRS and avoid WP:SYNTH, whilst giving the primary studies that the WHO ECDC and CDC use their WP:DUE weight. Also the previous revision repeated itself a lot. --Almaty (talk) 01:01, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
Citation errors
There are few citation errors that I have found. It would be great if someone fixes those. Thanks, Luke Kern Choi 5 (talk) 15:32, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
- Can you list the precise location of these errors here so we don't have to go looking for them? Also, you're extended-confirmed, so you can always fix them yourself -- just an FYI if you didn't know. sam1370 (talk) 21:09, 29 April 2020 (UTC)
- Actually, I'm not that good in citaions, and I didn't know if the citation name(multiple uses?) is wrong, link is wrong, etc. Next time, I would put the citation number.(Red ones in the main article.) Also, I apologize because I can't spend enough time on Wikipedia these days. Sorry! Just wanted to help.Luke Kern Choi 5 (talk) 00:52, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- @Luke Kern Choi 5: No need to apologize at all; I should have realized that not everyone was able to fix the citation. If you list the citation numbers in the article here, I can try to fix them. sam1370 (talk, contribs) 21:48, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Luke Kern Choi 5: I accidentally linked your user page as a template last time, so just redoing the ping here so you get the notification. sam1370 (talk, contribs) 11:41, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- Thank you!!! Luke Kern Choi 5 (talk) 00:04, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- Actually, I'm not that good in citaions, and I didn't know if the citation name(multiple uses?) is wrong, link is wrong, etc. Next time, I would put the citation number.(Red ones in the main article.) Also, I apologize because I can't spend enough time on Wikipedia these days. Sorry! Just wanted to help.Luke Kern Choi 5 (talk) 00:52, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
Citation 706 says this... Cite error: The named reference no_covid was invoked but never defined (see the help page). Possibly an error about nickname??? Luke Kern Choi 5 (talk) 13:57, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
Continuing of discussion about whether it is WP:DUE to include a sentence about there being no evidence for immunity in the lead
Hey User:Sdkb, since you reverted my edit including the sentence in the part of the article excerpted from the disease lead, I'd like to reopen the discussion (and hopefully get a few more opinions than just me and you as well). Personally, I believe that the fact that people who recover from the pandemic are not immune is an important thing that should be included in the lead, since I think it would be a common misconception considering the common characteristic among many diseases that recovering from them grants you immunity. sam1370 (talk) 05:56, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- To help out anyone else who wants to comment on this, the reversion diff is here and the prior discussion is here. {{u|Sdkb}} talk 06:12, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- This seems important to me as it more or less directly addresses the cure. Benica11 (talk) 16:04, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- Its a negative statement; there's no evidence for the opposite either. Important to keep clutter out of the lead. Plenty of room for something along these lines, further down the page. Robertpedley (talk) 21:44, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence but it should be absent from the lead. --Almaty (talk) 04:31, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Robertpedley: Of course there's no evidence for the opposite either, but many diseases have that characteristic of recovered means immune, which I think is why the fact that there is no evidence recovereds are immune is making headlines. sam1370 (talk, contribs) 11:39, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- Agree should go in the body not the lead. Doc James (talk · contribs · email) 04:26, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Doc James: Isn't it an important fact, however, that clears up a misconception that I believe should be fairly common? sam1370 (talk | contribs) 09:04, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- Important and should go in the body. Doc James (talk · contribs · email) 09:10, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- Eh, alright. Maybe it can fit in Epidemiology or something. sam1370 (talk / contribs) 01:37, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- Important and should go in the body. Doc James (talk · contribs · email) 09:10, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Doc James: Isn't it an important fact, however, that clears up a misconception that I believe should be fairly common? sam1370 (talk | contribs) 09:04, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- Agree should go in the body not the lead. Doc James (talk · contribs · email) 04:26, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- Its a negative statement; there's no evidence for the opposite either. Important to keep clutter out of the lead. Plenty of room for something along these lines, further down the page. Robertpedley (talk) 21:44, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
Status of Tajikistan
For any observer of Tajikistan its Coronavirus positive status was quite obvious a month ago due to large amounts of doctors being quarantined in various hospitals mostly across the north of the country. In any case the Tajik government has now officially certified that the country does indeed have Covid-19. This means the map needs to be updated. The source of this information can be found in Russian in Asia Plus's article here: https://asiaplustj.info/ru/news/tajikistan/security/20200430/v-tadzhikistane-ofitsialno-priznali-koronavirus-v-strane-est Zaharous (talk) 11:43, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- thank you--Ozzie10aaaa (talk) 01:17, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
Hubei description in the lead
header refactored 19:26, 30 April 2020 (UTC) for clarity
I notice an interesting difference in the lead in this article and coronavirus disease 2019. There, a clause in the first paragraph of the intro reads The disease was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, the capital of China's Hubei province
, whereas here we just use The outbreak was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019.
A while back, it read The outbreak was identified in Wuhan, Hubei, China, in December 2019.
The difference seems a little backwards, since we shouldn't have more on the origin at the disease article than the pandemic article. So: what phrasing should we use at each? {{u|Sdkb}} talk 17:23, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- Sdkb, I'm not too sure what you're concerned about. The first time the disease was noted was in Wuhan which eventually became the pandemic. It's appropriate to use "disease" in coronavirus disease 2019 and "outbreak" for this article that is talking about the pandemic. Is is the omission of "Hubei" that you have problems with? —Tenryuu 🐲 ( 💬 • 📝 ) 19:09, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- @Tenryuu: sorry, I should have clarified more. Yeah, it's the difference between "Wuhan, the capital of China's Hubei province", "Wuhan, Hubei, China", and "Wuhan, China". Which option do you prefer for here, and which for the disease article? {{u|Sdkb}} talk 19:25, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- Sdkb, I like being as specific as possible, so the third one is out. I also think that mentioning that the place of origin is the capital city is helpful as it is already notable, so my choice would have to be the first phrase for both articles. —Tenryuu 🐲 ( 💬 • 📝 ) 19:37, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- I mildly prefer the 3rd "Wuhan, China" and consider any efforts to homogenize articles systematically as evil by definition. Sorry Tenryuu, that's about as far as it could be from your opinion ^^. Iluvalar (talk) 19:57, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- (edit conflict)@Tenryuu and Iluvalar: Saying "Wuhan, China" rather than "Wuhan, Hubei, China" feels a little like saying "Boston, United States", rather than "Boston, Massachusetts, United States"; the former would sound odd to me. I don't have a good sense of how appropriate it is for Wuhan; do any MOS folks or folks with cultural knowledge want to weigh in? Regarding the longer option, I have some hesitations from WP:DUE — it's absolutely important information, yes, but for the second sentence of an article with as much to cover as this one, there is a massively high bar to clear. And there's also the matter of people who have sought to emphasize the virus's "Chineseness" for xenophobic reasons — I wouldn't want to give ammunition to that perspective by letting the coverage of the virus's early history in the lead become overlong. {{u|Sdkb}} talk 20:05, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- @Sdkb: If you look at the Chinese Wikipedia's article on the subject, it reads "疫情最初在2019年12月於中華人民共和國湖北省武漢市開始爆發,隨", which, using my extensive Chinese knowledge (read: Google Translate), translates to "The outbreak began in Wuhan, Hubei province, the People’s Republic of China, in December 2019." I think this gives a bit of credibility to your argument. sam1370 (talk) 20:24, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- Sdkb, I like being as specific as possible, so the third one is out. I also think that mentioning that the place of origin is the capital city is helpful as it is already notable, so my choice would have to be the first phrase for both articles. —Tenryuu 🐲 ( 💬 • 📝 ) 19:37, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- @Tenryuu: sorry, I should have clarified more. Yeah, it's the difference between "Wuhan, the capital of China's Hubei province", "Wuhan, Hubei, China", and "Wuhan, China". Which option do you prefer for here, and which for the disease article? {{u|Sdkb}} talk 19:25, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
- I think the "Wuhan, China" wording is my doing: another user objected that having both "Hubei" and "China" was redundant and mentioning its capital-city status was excessive detail, and so they removed "China", but in an article on a global pandemic (on an edition of Wikipedia where many readers are unlikely to know Chinese province names) removing the country name was clearly bad, so I changed it from "Wuhan, Hubei" to "Wuhan, China". I would prefer "Wuhan, Hubei, China" (but would be fine with the "Wuhan, capital of China's Hubei province" wording, if that's preferred). I don't think it's a problem for articles to be inconsistent about such minor points, though—it's not as if any of the wordings differs on matters of fact, only presentation. -sche (talk) 02:11, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- Its historical the lead was very unweildy in the early march editathons of hundreds and hundreds of additions per day, i was cutting text every day. I took out Hubei because It's unnecessary detail IMO. Wuhan, China is like saying Christchurch, New Zealand or Lyon, France or St Petersberg, Russia dont need the state or province in most articles not particularly about the region in question --Almaty (talk) 15:38, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- Happy with Wuhan, China as it keeps it shorter. Doc James (talk · contribs · email) 04:25, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- Okay, so we're quite split here so far. We have 1 for the long version, 2 for "Wuhan, Hubei, China" (I'm starting to lean that way), and 3 for "Wuhan, China". I'm going to put out a few invites to see if I can gather some others to comment and help us flesh out consensus here. {{u|Sdkb}} talk 04:47, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- I would prefer "Wuhan, China" - it's a little more brief and Wuhan is a reasonably large enough city in itself to allow omission of its province name. "Hubei" just doesn't feel like it has enough relation. Juxlos (talk) 06:53, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Wuhan, China is probably sufficient and shorter. Unless some significant cultural element emerges as discussed above by others. Wikilinks can be used if someone is wondering why it says Wuhan and not Hubei. Also: there is a relevant item in the project consensus: Wikipedia_talk:WikiProject_COVID-19/Current_consensus let's remember to update it once this discussion is over as this decision applies potential to several project pages. -- {{u|Gtoffoletto}} talk 12:15, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
coronavirus pandemic
this article should be renamed simply "coronavirus pandemic" this isnt a science journal. the intricacies and details are described within the article. no historian is going to refer to this disease as COVID-19 i assure you — Preceding unsigned comment added by 128.114.255.226 (talk) 05:04, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- I disagree, there are many different coronaviruses, and Wikipedia's goal is to be as accurate as possible. For example, both COVID-19 and SARS are coronaviruses and caused outbreaks, but we don't title them both "coronavirus pandemic". Andromeda26430 (talk) 06:19, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- There is a page move discussion up the page. But if either of you bring comments there, please try to refrain from such gross crystal balling, and inform yourselves about the difference between a virus and a disease. Kevin McE (talk) 08:06, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- A bit unnecessarily hostile towards Andromeda26430 there, Kevin McE, it's a pretty common mistake to call COVID-19 a virus and their point actually still stands. In any case, I agree that the IP is not contributing to a discussion here with this thread. Prinsgezinde (talk) 01:58, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- Much of the thrust of the discussion, I would suggest the entire essence of the discussion, has been about the naming differences between viruses and diseases. I believe it is perfectly reasonable to ask people to come to the discussion with clarity about that distinction. Kevin McE (talk) 11:08, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- A bit unnecessarily hostile towards Andromeda26430 there, Kevin McE, it's a pretty common mistake to call COVID-19 a virus and their point actually still stands. In any case, I agree that the IP is not contributing to a discussion here with this thread. Prinsgezinde (talk) 01:58, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
Possibly good news regarding the mortality rate
Hello.
Would the following information be useful to incorporate into the article, if it has not been cited previously?
Help to do so would be appreciated if it is deemed acceptable
David A (talk) 15:15, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
In addition, has it been mentioned that the United Nations think that the global shutdowns could cause 265 million people to starve?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52373888
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/un-warns-biblical-famines-due-coronavirus/
David A (talk) 15:23, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- We've been sitting on the antibodies results for a while now. The tests are not the most reliable. Although it have been conducted in many place around the world with the same ~20%ish result. I also note that today Robertpedley cleaned up Doc James IFR chapter. The higher estimates have just been removed. So, in some sens, the article is moving. I'd expect both of them to come have a chat here later today. Iluvalar (talk) 16:09, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- Okay. Thank you for the information. What about the projections of mass-starvation released by the UN? David A (talk) 19:45, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- The UN announcement is relevant IMO. Not sure how and were we should cover it. Primary source : 2020 GLOBAL REPORT ON FOOD CRISES (there is a page about covid-19). Iluvalar (talk) 20:56, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- Were other than NYC is the result 20%? We should be moving to review articles at this point rather than the popular press and primary sources. By the way 0.15% have died in NYC from COVID, with 20% maybe infected that would give an IFR of maybe 0.6%. Doc James (talk · contribs · email) 06:08, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- What the IFR is, is separate from projections regarding if people are going to starve. Doc James (talk · contribs · email) 06:05, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- Well, according to models by the Public Health Agency of Sweden, 26% of the population of Stockholm county (0.26 x 2.344 million = 609440 people) have supposedly currently been infected at some point, and Sweden as a whole currently only has 2669 dead from the infection: [43]
- That said, the researchers may have changed their mathematical models since then. I unfortunately haven't kept up to date regarding every detail.
- In any case, as far as I have understood, this article also lists social effects of the pandemic, and 265 million starving people is certainly an enormously devastating social effect. David A (talk) 13:12, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- Doc James the first tests you questionned was from california, germany had similar results. I kinda lost track, there is a few more places, all with similar results. Chelsea, Massachusetts ? Between 15% to 25% of the world seems infected already. Iluvalar (talk) 19:05, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- The Santa Clara study claimed 2.5 to 4.2% of people had antibodies not 20%.[44]
- User:CFCF can you read the Swedish paper?
- Which ref says "Between 15% to 25% of the world seems infected already"? Doc James (talk · contribs · email) 04:18, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- Here is the main page containing the PDF document. It was released April 21, so it is fairly recent: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publikationsarkiv/s/skattning-av-peakdag-och-antal-infekterade-i-covid-19-utbrottet-i-stockholms-lan-februari-april-2020/ https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publikationsarkiv/e/estimates-of-the-peak-day-and-the-number-of-infected-individuals-during-the-covid-19-outbreak-in-the-stockholm-region-sweden-february--april-2020/
- That said, it was almost 2 weeks ago, so I am not certain that they haven't changed their estimations since then. I will check to see if I find something. David A (talk) 07:53, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- I couldn't find any further updates via several adjusted Google searches at least. David A (talk) 08:03, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- Roche's antibody test claims a sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 99.8% and got FDA EUA, warrants inclusion. Havent seen the studies but if this is true it warrants inclusion --Almaty (talk) 08:45, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- Doc James the first tests you questionned was from california, germany had similar results. I kinda lost track, there is a few more places, all with similar results. Chelsea, Massachusetts ? Between 15% to 25% of the world seems infected already. Iluvalar (talk) 19:05, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- The UN announcement is relevant IMO. Not sure how and were we should cover it. Primary source : 2020 GLOBAL REPORT ON FOOD CRISES (there is a page about covid-19). Iluvalar (talk) 20:56, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
- Okay. Thank you for the information. What about the projections of mass-starvation released by the UN? David A (talk) 19:45, 1 May 2020 (UTC)
Okay it says "To estimate the model parameters, we used a survey that showed that 2.5% of the population in the Stockholm region were infected between March 27 and April 3." So did they do antibody tests and find that 26% of people had antibodies? Does not look like it. Doc James (talk · contribs · email) 08:06, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Not as far as I know. I think that they simply made mathematical models of the projected infection rate. David A (talk) 10:09, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Sorry Doc James, I must say i'm confused, I'm sure the santa clara study was mentioning data for santa clara CITY which was significantly higher then in all the county. But who knows, maybe i'm just going crazy. It seems obvious that in most big city the R0 of COVID is a bit higher then in less populated area, which cause a large variation of prevalence. [45]. So when I say 15%-25% that's in the big city, the regions around are lagging behind. Iluvalar (talk) 19:33, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
So is somebody experienced willing to insert the United Nations mass-starvation projections into the article? David A (talk) 06:43, 6 May 2020 (UTC)
possible future projection
(aside from the current 'Duration' subsection)might it be a good idea to insert a section/subsection towards the end which indicates which way this thing might go?...I was looking through "Covid-19's future: small outbreaks, monster wave, or ongoing crisis". STAT. 1 May 2020. Retrieved 2 May 2020.which offers three possible scenarios, 1 a larger infection in the fall(U.S.), 2. a continuation thru 2022/ or until theres a vaccine 3 a smaller but continuing version of the present. Of course, better references than this one would be needed....however the 3 'scenario' graphs, with proper referencing, may not be a bad idea IMO --Ozzie10aaaa (talk) 01:16, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- Who did those graphs without paying attention to the ILI seasons ? XD . Could of of those scenario include a peak next January please (as if it was a coronavirus) ? Iluvalar (talk) 02:18, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
Remdesivir
Hasn't gone through the full approval process of the FDA but they have approved it for emergency use. It has the following wording it is reasonable to believe that the known and potential benefits of RDV outweigh the known and potential risks of the drug for the treatment of patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19
. So this is an specific, approved antiviral treatment to use our wording, and therefore the lead is now incorrect. What are others thoughts? --Almaty (talk)
- The benefit with respect to mortality if any is likely to be small as no significant difference in that study. There are also concerns that the primary endpoint changed half way through the trial.[46] Also a little concerned when I see this happen. Doc James (talk · contribs · email) 06:10, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- Yes there doesn't seem to be a difference in mortality. The endpoint changing is the Gilead sponsored studies, not the NIH study (Adaptive COVID treatment trial), two different studies. First published RCT shows nothing but thats because they couldn't enrol. But theres a trend in that study towards what NIH is finding too. However, what the FDA have done is balanced up all the data we have so far (to use a legal term for that as a another way to explain it other than our previous lengthy discussions - its still approved though, that is a real approval, whether we agree with it or not. So our wording is currently wrong. We need to change it to "there is no antiviral treatment that has been proven to be effective on mortality in published RCTs", and consider at what point Remdesivir goes into the lead of the article. Just like oseltamivir gets into the lead of influenza despite having only a slight benefit on duration, but not on mortality. --Almaty (talk) 08:22, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- Ah okay thanks. This is looking at ACTT and also discusses how the primary endpoint changed. https://www.healthnewsreview.org/2020/04/what-the-public-didnt-hear-about-the-nih-remdesivir-trial/
- When WHO changes / updates their position should than definitely go in the lead. We have a bunch more studies ongoing so I am sure we will know more soon.
- We of course have a published RCT in the Lancet on May 1st that found no benefit (14% mortality for remdesivir, 13% for placebo) but yes a trend at 14 and 28 days for more improvement but not change in time to hospital discharge.[47][48]
- Hydroxychloroquine is also approved for emergency use, though more and more evidence shows it is harmful. Doc James (talk · contribs · email) 09:13, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- Yeah the Wuhan study was the one i was referring to above. Its not very helpful because it didn't enrol its target number of patients. I wouldn't say the WHO are the authority on medicines, rather the FDA, EMA, TGA, health canada etc. --Almaty (talk) 10:35, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- Yes there doesn't seem to be a difference in mortality. The endpoint changing is the Gilead sponsored studies, not the NIH study (Adaptive COVID treatment trial), two different studies. First published RCT shows nothing but thats because they couldn't enrol. But theres a trend in that study towards what NIH is finding too. However, what the FDA have done is balanced up all the data we have so far (to use a legal term for that as a another way to explain it other than our previous lengthy discussions - its still approved though, that is a real approval, whether we agree with it or not. So our wording is currently wrong. We need to change it to "there is no antiviral treatment that has been proven to be effective on mortality in published RCTs", and consider at what point Remdesivir goes into the lead of the article. Just like oseltamivir gets into the lead of influenza despite having only a slight benefit on duration, but not on mortality. --Almaty (talk) 08:22, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
United States timeline
- "On 6 March 2020, the United States was advised of projections for the impact of the new coronavirus"...Should it be 16 March? Whispyhistory (talk) 12:30, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- The source states 6 March 2020. Veritycheck✔️ (talk) 19:03, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- Are you sure the source (a newspaper) is correct? Whispyhistory (talk) 21:00, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Whispyhistory: If you can provide a reliable source to counter that statement, then please do so. If not, we will trust The Guardian over Whispyhistory. sam1370 (talk / contribs) 10:19, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- Are you sure the source (a newspaper) is correct? Whispyhistory (talk) 21:00, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- The source states 6 March 2020. Veritycheck✔️ (talk) 19:03, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- Thanks for replying @Sam1370:.... It’s old enough to be cross-referenced, or stated in other sources, as it doesn't fit with other timings. I’m probably missing something. I don't understand what happened on 6 March.
- The pandemic article cites The Guardian (4 April), which says ”On 6 March, a group of epidemiologists at Imperial College London gave the White House coronavirus taskforce a heads-up about the terrifying projections for the disease they were about to publish relating to the US.” [49] and makes reference to the paper of 16 March.
- In the section on the ‘Containment efforts within the U.S.’ in the pandemic in the United States article, it says ”On March 16,… Coronavirus Response Coordinator Deborah Birx cited an analysis by Imperial College London that if nothing was done by government officials, 2.2 million would die in the United States and is referenced with The Washington Post (30 March).
- The NYT said on “16 Mar 2020 - A new report shows the number of deaths that could occur in the U.S. and ... The lead author of the study, Neil Ferguson, an epidemiology professor, said in an interview that his group had shared their projections with the White House task force about a week ago” [50], which still makes 6 March too far back.
- The government press briefing for 6 March doesn’t say anything about it and the W article on the US timeline doesn’t mention it on 6 March. Whispyhistory (talk) 12:55, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Whispyhistory: Alright, that makes sense. Yes, that should be 16 March sam1370 (talk / contribs) 17:07, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- Thanks for replying @Sam1370:.... It’s old enough to be cross-referenced, or stated in other sources, as it doesn't fit with other timings. I’m probably missing something. I don't understand what happened on 6 March.
Transclusion sections
I am sure most will agree that transclusion of sections is very detrimental for updating this article and is something we should be discouraging if we want editors to get involved here on this article. Wondering if we should take the time to just write the sections so they are not repetitive in nature and flow as one article. Lucky we dont have to many sections with this yet and I think It should be discouraged and fixed. I do remember us having a guideline or an essay on the merits and disadvantages of this but I cant find it (anyone remember the name of the essay?).--Moxy 🍁 15:00, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- I tried swapping the transclusions for actual text and was reverted. I'm all for anything to reduce the post-expand include size and make editing easier. --Ahecht (TALK
PAGE) 16:32, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- Strong oppose. The number one thing transclusions help with is making sure material stays up to date, and that's extremely important when it comes to COVID-19. Copying transcluded sections would double the amount of work needed to keep everything updated, and result in many lesser-edited articles rapidly decaying. It's not hard for editors who want to update a section to go to that article, and if any extra clarification is needed, that's what hidden text is for. Also, I'm not sure where the idea that there aren't many transclusions here is coming from — there are a bunch and they're firmly established at this point. {{u|Sdkb}} talk 17:57, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- I support reducing the number of transcluded sections. While they can be useful in some articles, and some of them (involving paragraphs full of frequently-updated figures) may be useful here, others are unhelpful and indeed harmful and result in text (and PEIS-limit-approaching references) being included here that may be fine for the main subtopic article but that is excessively detailed or redundant or undue in this global, full-topic overview article. This is particularly true with content that does not see overly frequent (substantive) changes, for which the rationale of keeping things up to date does not hold/apply, like the "misinformation" section. -sche (talk) 18:54, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- Correct transclusion of pros text is just lazy and impedes article updating and flow. This causes a few problems - editors have to search for articles, creates repetitive text, triple editing to add references, non-relevant pictures being used and formatting and wording at the parent page just to accommodate transclusion.... all time consuming and discouraging for anyone not familiar with how portals type pages work. Also bad to have to start a discussion at one article when the intent is to change another article when the change may not be relevant to both articles...lets all try an encourage contributing not block it. Article sizes also a factor as mentioned above. --Moxy 🍁 18:59, 2 May 2020 (UTC)
- Transclusions have held up when they've been brought here before, and they have community support across Wikipedia more broadly. If you really dislike them for generalized reasons, I'd suggest going to the pump rather than trying to build a WP:LOCALCONSENSUS here. Or, better, try to improve them rather than tearing them down by offering suggestions to the developers. {{u|Sdkb}} talk 03:28, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- What is best here in this article is the topic...I think it's best we write summaries for sections that don't have stats so all have the ability to edited here over having to convince others to change another article just to make a change here. We should make revision as easy as possible for anyone so we don't get dated statements. Telling editors to go start a talk somewhere else definitely doesn't address the concerns raised for this article.--Moxy 🍁 04:03, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- Just as a procedural note, the question "should X paragraph be transcluded into Y article, or should article Y include different text on topic X?" is a question to be addressed no the talk page of article Y (here), and if you tried to file such a small-potatoes, in-the-weeds, article-specific RM in a big forum like the pump, you'd most likely be told you were in the wrong venue and should have a discussion here before possibly escalating to a bigger venue. -sche (talk) 22:17, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- We should start working on this as we just had an new editor block for edit waring because they had no clue what the non-inclusive tags are in an article. Not only is this making it harder for all to update the article it's also causing us to lose editors.--Moxy 🍁 00:37, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
Recommend starting a section on Reopening
I think it is the right time to start this section, even though just a few countries are beginning to do this, this will soon start to become a major topic throughout the world and it is best to start this section when it is still an early topic of discussion. This section can include general examples of reopening strategies used throughout the world, risks and problems associated with reopening, as well as some specific examples of countries reopening. Maybe even WHO recommendations on reopening when they come around to making them or the fact that currently they are cautioning against reopening. One interesting question that can be touched on in this section is what constitutes the "end" of an epidemic in a given country? Which nations have already declared that their epidemic has ended, and what criteria are they using? If done well, I envision a similar section on each nation's 2020 coronavirus pandemic page with more specific information for each specific country, state, or region. -- Beezer137 (talk) 05:56, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- Yes agree with starting a section and maybe we need a who page on the topic?Doc James (talk · contribs · email) 08:02, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- We don't have a section on Lockdown so you'd have to call it "Lockdown and Reopening". Lockdown measures in different countries are pretty diverse, and reopening measures more so (tattoo parlours in Georgia, US?). It's going to be difficult to get it right.Robertpedley (talk) 11:26, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Yes agree with starting a section and maybe we need a who page on the topic?Doc James (talk · contribs · email) 08:02, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
I have removed COVID-19 project essays
The template that they placed at the top of the page is against policy. Current COVID-19 consensus is invalid, they can have consensus over there, but it is local consensus and should not be binding on any page until it has gone through WP:PROPOSAL. From WP:Wikipedia:WikiProject_Council/Guide#Advice_pages, An advice page written by several participants of a project is a "local consensus" that is no more binding on editors than material written by any single individual editor. Any advice page that has not been formally approved by the community through the WP:PROPOSAL process has the actual status of an optional essay.
Please ecourage members of the wikiproject to continue to write essays, but not impose them as Current COVID consensus or the like, because they are only essays, per wikipeida policy . --Almaty (talk) 13:38, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- And I have restored them, as they seem perfectly in keeping with the principles at WP:PROJ. They are communication, not imposition. "The pages of a WikiProject are the central place for editor collaboration on a particular topic area. Editors there develop criteria, maintain various collaborative processes and keep track of work that needs to be done. It also provides a forum where issues of interest to the editors of a subject may be discussed." Kevin McE (talk) 14:28, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- WP:PROJ is not a policy or a guideline. This template is imposing it literally like the current consesnsus of the page is, with far less consensus, it is disruptive and it causes confusion and false consensus. Your project does not control or own the page, yet it acts like it does. --Almaty (talk) 14:37, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- Am I right to assume the only problem right now with this list is the "origin" part ? Because the consensus is to use Index case. But in the model the attribute is called "origin" still. Iluvalar (talk) 19:03, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- WP:PROJ is not a policy or a guideline. This template is imposing it literally like the current consesnsus of the page is, with far less consensus, it is disruptive and it causes confusion and false consensus. Your project does not control or own the page, yet it acts like it does. --Almaty (talk) 14:37, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- Wrong venue. Please move to the WikiProject talk page– You've brought this up at the project talk page. Don't create duplicate discussions — use Template:Please see to refer one to another. If this draws further comments here, someone uninvolved should archive it. {{u|Sdkb}} talk 21:01, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- This is exactly my point, a very important discussion as to whether the project has scope to impose consensus on all articles is brought to the project page. Rather than the page where most editors contribute. It isn't right. --Almaty (talk) 09:14, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Feel free to make an invite from one to the other, but you are violating WP:MULTI. See WP:TALKFORK for more info. {{u|Sdkb}} talk 23:52, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
Typo in the "Epidemiology" section
Done
I can't edit this page, seeing as it's protected and I'm on my IP address rather than a custom made account, so can someone fix the two typo in the "Epidemiology" section in the word "comparative" and "coronaviruses" in this sentence: "A comarative sequence analysis of different coronoviruses found no evidence that COVID-19 was made in a laboratory."? 2600:1702:10A0:6DA0:71B1:8FB6:2531:3BE4 (talk) 21:26, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- Done, thanks for the suggestion. ϢereSpielChequers 21:37, 3 May 2020 (UTC)
- Discussed elsewhere under the heading "Lab Accident"Robertpedley (talk) 10:43, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
Establishing consensus for "also known as" in the lead
I'd like to establish a consensus on what name (if any) should be included in "The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as..." in the lead.
I think there are three immediately obvious options:
1. Nothing, remove the clause entirely, because "COVID-19 pandemic" is accurate unlike many of the common names
2. "...also known as the coronavirus pandemic" because it is just as common, if not more, than the COVID-19 pandemic and because regardless of it's in accuracy (naming a pandemic after the virus instead of the disease) it is often called that (currently on the page as of time of writing)
3. "...also known as the 2019-20 coronavirus pandemic", to help with the transition between the old name and the new. sam1370 (talk | contribs) 02:06, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- 3. "2019-20 coronavirus pandemic" still describes the time frame (assuming the pandemic doesn't go past into 2021). —Tenryuu 🐲 ( 💬 • 📝 ) 02:13, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- No need the 19 has nothing to do with a time frame but the year of discovery.... makes no difference if it goes on for 5 years....the disease is called COVID-19 and that won't change no matter how long it goes on. A new virus will have a new name.--Moxy 🍁 02:26, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Moxy, it does have to do with the time frame in the sense that the pandemic started in 2019. The virus name has already been decided. —Tenryuu 🐲 ( 💬 • 📝 ) 02:57, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- The pandemic didn't start in 2019. The spread of the disease did. There is a huge difference. Prinsgezinde (talk) 16:33, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Moxy, it does have to do with the time frame in the sense that the pandemic started in 2019. The virus name has already been decided. —Tenryuu 🐲 ( 💬 • 📝 ) 02:57, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Tenryuu: However, it is less common, with the Google search (including quotes) "2019-20 coronavirus pandemic" returning 241,000 results, while "COVID-19 pandemic" returns 143 million and "Coronavirus pandemic" returns 136 million. Description as "also known as" would therefore be WP:UNDUE. The start date of the pandemic is only a few sentences away in the lead. sam1370 (talk | contribs) 02:53, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Sam1370: (edit conflict) Google search results are not definitive proof and are subject to many limitations; see WP:GOOGLETEST. As I described in my comments to the RM discussion above, a search on google trends still shows that "coronavirus" is more frequently searched for than "covid". A prospective reader is thus likely to come here having searched for "coronavirus". 107.190.33.254 (talk) 02:59, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- 107.190.33.254: WP:GOOGLETEST states that problems with partial search results can be fixed by putting the topic in quotation marks, which I have done. However, I agree with User:Tenryuu when he stated that the coronavirus pandemic is not the only one, and combined with your info that coronavirus is more frequently searched for than "covid" I change my stance to 3 as it seems to be the best option that is still precise. sam1370 (talk | contribs) 03:10, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Sam1370, "coronavirus pandemic" is inappropriate because SARS and MERS are also coronaviruses that had pandemics. I support 3 as the transitional option from what we had before. —Tenryuu 🐲 ( 💬 • 📝 ) 03:00, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Tenryuu: I see. However, is there any real need for a transitional name when we already have a redirect? sam1370 (talk | contribs) 03:04, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Sam1370, the article has gone through various renames starting from "Wuhan pneumonia"/"China pneumonia outbreak" to "2019-20 novel coronavirus outbreak" to "2019-20 coronavirus pandemic" and there had been thorough deliberation and consensus over each rename, which meant that the names were notable. The last one is still the most accurate out of all of them —Tenryuu 🐲 ( 💬 • 📝 ) 04:02, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Tenryuu: I'm sure all of those were accurate at the time -- for example, "2019-20 novel coronavirus outbreak" named the specific coronavirus we are facing, unlike "2019-20 coronavirus pandemic", which actually makes it more accurate. sam1370 (talk / contribs) 05:02, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Except that there have been no other coronavirus pandemics in that time frame. Despite not being as popular as other search terms, it is still commonly used and understood as the COVID-19 pandemic, even if it is nominally incorrect. —Tenryuu 🐲 ( 💬 • 📝 ) 11:23, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Tenryuu: COVID-19 pandemic is nominally incorrect? Doesn't it follow all the rules of naming a pandemic, i.e. after the disease? sam1370 (talk / contribs) 00:54, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- Sam1370, subject confusion. I was still referring to the "2019-20 coronavirus pandemic". —Tenryuu 🐲 ( 💬 • 📝 ) 01:03, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Tenryuu: Ah, okay. 2019-20 coronavirus pandemic isn't as common as COVID-19 pandemic, as evidenced by Google search results (with the term quoted) "COVID-19 pandemic" is about 590 times more common (154 million vs 260 thousand). sam1370 (talk / contribs) 10:07, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- Sam1370, subject confusion. I was still referring to the "2019-20 coronavirus pandemic". —Tenryuu 🐲 ( 💬 • 📝 ) 01:03, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Tenryuu: COVID-19 pandemic is nominally incorrect? Doesn't it follow all the rules of naming a pandemic, i.e. after the disease? sam1370 (talk / contribs) 00:54, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- Except that there have been no other coronavirus pandemics in that time frame. Despite not being as popular as other search terms, it is still commonly used and understood as the COVID-19 pandemic, even if it is nominally incorrect. —Tenryuu 🐲 ( 💬 • 📝 ) 11:23, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Tenryuu: I'm sure all of those were accurate at the time -- for example, "2019-20 novel coronavirus outbreak" named the specific coronavirus we are facing, unlike "2019-20 coronavirus pandemic", which actually makes it more accurate. sam1370 (talk / contribs) 05:02, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Sam1370, the article has gone through various renames starting from "Wuhan pneumonia"/"China pneumonia outbreak" to "2019-20 novel coronavirus outbreak" to "2019-20 coronavirus pandemic" and there had been thorough deliberation and consensus over each rename, which meant that the names were notable. The last one is still the most accurate out of all of them —Tenryuu 🐲 ( 💬 • 📝 ) 04:02, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Tenryuu: I see. However, is there any real need for a transitional name when we already have a redirect? sam1370 (talk | contribs) 03:04, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Sam1370: (edit conflict) Google search results are not definitive proof and are subject to many limitations; see WP:GOOGLETEST. As I described in my comments to the RM discussion above, a search on google trends still shows that "coronavirus" is more frequently searched for than "covid". A prospective reader is thus likely to come here having searched for "coronavirus". 107.190.33.254 (talk) 02:59, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- 2 or 3, I have not seen "2019-20 coronavirus pandemic" used outside anywhere but here as the previous title for this article (out of concerns for precision); and since the less precise "coronavirus" is commonly used instead of "covid-19" it should be included, in whichever form (precise or less so) is deemed most appropriate. 107.190.33.254 (talk) 02:59, 4 May 2020 (UTC) Edit 04:33, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- 107.190.33.254: However, as Tenryuu stated, "coronavirus pandemic" is completely inaccurate because there have been multiple. sam1370 (talk / contribs) 03:15, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- I do not disagree that "coronavirus pandemic" is wholly lacking in accuracy; my point was that outside of WP, I have not seen option 3 used (since mostly everybody is discussing the "current" (i.e. no dates required) pandemic). In the spirit of being somewhat precise and future-proof I see no significant problem with variant 3 either. 107.190.33.254 (talk) 04:33, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- I see your point. Actually, I've changed my mind on this one: SARS and MERS were not, as User:Tenryuu said, coronavirus pandemics: see 2012 Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak and 2002–2004 SARS outbreak. I now support 2. By the way, is there any specific reason you haven't made an account? I'm not sure if this is all you, but your IP address appears to have made over two thousand edits. sam1370 (talk / contribs) 05:02, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Sam1370, I'll concede to that. They were at most epidemics. —Tenryuu 🐲 ( 💬 • 📝 ) 11:26, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- I see your point. Actually, I've changed my mind on this one: SARS and MERS were not, as User:Tenryuu said, coronavirus pandemics: see 2012 Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak and 2002–2004 SARS outbreak. I now support 2. By the way, is there any specific reason you haven't made an account? I'm not sure if this is all you, but your IP address appears to have made over two thousand edits. sam1370 (talk / contribs) 05:02, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- I do not disagree that "coronavirus pandemic" is wholly lacking in accuracy; my point was that outside of WP, I have not seen option 3 used (since mostly everybody is discussing the "current" (i.e. no dates required) pandemic). In the spirit of being somewhat precise and future-proof I see no significant problem with variant 3 either. 107.190.33.254 (talk) 04:33, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- 107.190.33.254: However, as Tenryuu stated, "coronavirus pandemic" is completely inaccurate because there have been multiple. sam1370 (talk / contribs) 03:15, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- 2 (or 3), although we might change "also known as" to "commonly known as". Pace the editors who find it technically inaccurate, it's certainly common... although, as long as "coronavirus" occurs somewhere in the first sentence, I suppose the identity of the ongoing "coronavirus pandemic" with the "COVID-19 pandemic" will be adequately apparent even if we drop the a.k.a.-clause. -sche (talk) 05:10, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- 1, although not simply for that reason. "...also known as the coronavirus pandemic" gives undue prominence to a loose, almost slang, reference. "...also known as the 2019-20 coronavirus pandemic" is not true for most. "Could be recognized" might be true, but "known as" is a high threshold statement. If anywhere, a brief synopsis of what people were calling it in different times and places belongs in COVID-19 pandemic#History, not the lede sentence. This article is already content heavy. --SmokeyJoe (talk) 05:55, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- @SmokeyJoe: I disagree; many news sources refer to the COVID-19 pandemic as the coronavirus pandemic and a search on Google (with the respective terms quoted) shows they both have around the same number of results, which eliminates any possibility of WP:UNDUE. "Also known as" is just that, "also known as", and does not guarantee that it is in accordance with the rules of naming a pandemic or that it is not slang. sam1370 (talk / contribs) 07:32, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Many news sources are not reliable sources. Ghits is even worse. Look at quality sources. Surely, the quality sources are represented by the reference list. I just went though the first 12 references. The “COVID-19 pandemic” is dominant, where the word “pandemic” occurs at all. Only one uses “Coronavirus pandemic”, and it was a paragraph about what Trump had to say. The high Ghits you mention can be explained by the previous title of this article. —SmokeyJoe (talk) 08:34, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- @SmokeyJoe: The Ghits for the article in quotes only number about 300,000. Reliable sources are a reliable source for the information they provide, not how common something is, while Google hits, with the term quoted, is a fairly accurate measure of how popular a term is. Of course reliable sources are going to use the more precise wording, because they are reliable and accurate. sam1370 (talk / contribs) 01:00, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- Hi Sam1370. I'm not sure what you're saying to me there. #1 is good. It's the name that matches the sources. #2 is bad, because although loosely known as "the coronavirus pandemic", it is not the first coronavirus pandemic, and putting it there like like makes it liable to mislead. #3 is cumbersome, is not supported by any of the first twelve references, and if it goes anywhere it belongs in the History section; it is but one of a set of terms that have been used. #1 is simple and accurate and the way forward. If #1 is not adopted immediately due to the recent title change, it should be adopted fairly soon, unless something changes. --SmokeyJoe (talk) 01:44, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- @SmokeyJoe: To clarify, I support 2. #1 is fine, but 2 is better as it includes a name that is approximately as common as COVID-19 pandemic. This is the first coronavirus pandemic, the other outbreaks/epidemics being 2012 Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak and 2002–2004 SARS outbreak. sam1370 (talk / contribs) 10:13, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- Hi Sam1370. I'm not sure what you're saying to me there. #1 is good. It's the name that matches the sources. #2 is bad, because although loosely known as "the coronavirus pandemic", it is not the first coronavirus pandemic, and putting it there like like makes it liable to mislead. #3 is cumbersome, is not supported by any of the first twelve references, and if it goes anywhere it belongs in the History section; it is but one of a set of terms that have been used. #1 is simple and accurate and the way forward. If #1 is not adopted immediately due to the recent title change, it should be adopted fairly soon, unless something changes. --SmokeyJoe (talk) 01:44, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- @SmokeyJoe: I disagree; many news sources refer to the COVID-19 pandemic as the coronavirus pandemic and a search on Google (with the respective terms quoted) shows they both have around the same number of results, which eliminates any possibility of WP:UNDUE. "Also known as" is just that, "also known as", and does not guarantee that it is in accordance with the rules of naming a pandemic or that it is not slang. sam1370 (talk / contribs) 07:32, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- 2 with 3 being my second choice. 2 gets 136 million hits. Doc James (talk · contribs · email) 07:59, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Anything but 3. The old name was a compromise, whereas "also known as ..." is used to describe other common names. "2019-20 coronavirus pandemic" is not a common name. "coronavirus pandemic" or, "corona pandemic", yes, but no one right now says "2019-20", partially because it wasn't even a pandemic until 2020 but mostly because we're still in the middle of it (or, more likely, somewhere at the start). As of right now I'd agree with both 1 and 2, with a slight preference for 1 since we don't really need an alternative title that may again be debated. Prinsgezinde (talk) 16:33, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Prinsgezinde: I think having an alternative title will be useful for clarity, since it shows up in Google search results and is right there so readers who are unfamiliar with "COVID-19 pandemic" can see the alternative title. sam1370 (talk / contribs) 01:30, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
Proposal: Move moratorium
As we finally passed final name "COVID-19 pandemic" for this article and first step on improving page with correct info. We still need the move requests controlled meaning no one should doing it for next 30 days. This is to prevent "opposed" move disruption on the COVID-19 pandemic page.Regice2020 (talk) 03:13, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Comment How about we wait and see if the RM's become a problem or not. The moratoriums are to prevent disruptive discussion, not act as pre-emptive strikes for possible unwanted proposals. Mgasparin (talk) 03:19, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Agreed. The RM we just had was huge, and probably contains arguments against almost all other reasonable name changes. sam1370 (talk / contribs) 03:37, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Agree with Mga, we should wait and see if they become an issue. If they do we can propose another one. QueerFilmNerd (talk | contribs) 03:57, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Propose the standard 6 months following a consensus decision, and this means hiding this thread, because this thread is in violation. --SmokeyJoe (talk) 05:57, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- We should wait to see if any issue occurs. Not sure we need a moratorium currently. Doc James (talk · contribs · email) 07:56, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Comment If RM counter was not record high, then move request fetish indeed existing. But at least April 26's one was interesting. --91.207.170.201 (talk) 10:57, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Not necessary - If multiple persons propose RM that are not substantially different from the previous ones then we might reconsider this but as of right now this appears premature. In any case, if any such RM was proposed in the near-future, I would see no objection to a speedy close for it being disruptive...107.190.33.254 (talk) 16:24, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Suggestion: A moratorium might be overly strict, but we're already having issues below. What I would suggest would be a requirement that requested moves have to themselves be proposed. So, before you'd be allowed to use the RM tag and place a notice on the article, you'd have to open a small meta discussion on the talk page here about whether there is sufficient interest in holding a RM. This would allow us to shut down the more frivolous ones while providing a path for more serious proposals. {{u|Sdkb}} talk 00:47, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- Wait: Such actions should be reactive, not anticipatory. --benlisquareT•C•E 05:52, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
Source not about COVID
This text ", though the CDC says that hand sanitizers are less effective than hand washing, in part due to the higher margin for error (wiping sanitizer off too early, not using enough, etc).[1]" the source is not about COVID.
It says "Soap and water are more effective than hand sanitizers at removing certain kinds of germs, like Cryptosporidium, norovirus, and Clostridium difficile1-5" and would be fine in those articles. Doc James (talk · contribs · email) 07:56, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
References
- ^ "Show Me the Science – When & How to Use Hand Sanitizer in Community Settings | Handwashing | CDC". www.cdc.gov. 2020-03-03. Retrieved 2020-05-04.
Title
The title of this article is different from other pandemics and epidemics. There is no year included in the title. So the title should be '2019-2020 COVID-19 pandemic'. The previous title '2019-20 Coronavirus pandemic' was better. --Wester (talk) 20:29, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- If I may, boldly, but this has been discussed with an RM which closed yesterday (see higher on the page). You (and I, and others) might not fully agree with the current result, but get over it. 107.190.33.254 (talk) 20:56, 4 May 2020 (UTC)}}
- That past discussion was on the topic of COVID-19 versus Coronavirus as name in the title. I simply point to the fact that the naming system of pandemics and epidemics is not followed here. A year should be added in the title, and '19' is not recognizable as a year. To follow the naming convention it should be '2020-19 COVID-19 pandemic'. --Wester (talk) 21:09, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Wester: It is not per se standard to put the year in the title, unless there have been multiple pandemics with the same name. There has been only one Spanish flu, which is why we name the page "Spanish flu", and there has been only one COVID-19 pandemic. --MrClog (talk) 23:06, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- COVID-19 pandemic should be the final move decision even after when this is over just like "SARS" or "EBOLA". There no evidence the COVID-19 pandemic ended in 2020 from the start anyways even the oppose cant provide one. Regice2020 (talk) 00:00, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Wester: It is not per se standard to put the year in the title, unless there have been multiple pandemics with the same name. There has been only one Spanish flu, which is why we name the page "Spanish flu", and there has been only one COVID-19 pandemic. --MrClog (talk) 23:06, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- That past discussion was on the topic of COVID-19 versus Coronavirus as name in the title. I simply point to the fact that the naming system of pandemics and epidemics is not followed here. A year should be added in the title, and '19' is not recognizable as a year. To follow the naming convention it should be '2020-19 COVID-19 pandemic'. --Wester (talk) 21:09, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- Please ping me when the 2047 COVID-19 pandemic hits (as we all know it will) and we can consider disambiguating the name. Until then, there was a lot of consideration put into the RM that just closed. Please don't make us implement another move moratorium; just let the new name stand. {{u|Sdkb}} talk 00:21, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- @Wester: The title of the article was just changed recently, and we're in the process of changing all the other articles for consistency, so that's why they're not all the same. I'm starting to support the move moratorium that was proposed earlier. sam1370 (talk / contribs) 01:05, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
No historian is going to refer to as COVID-19
The following discussion is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.
No historian is going to refer to as COVID-19. It's called Coronavirus Pandemic--128.114.255.218 (talk) 23:25, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- This issue has already been decided at § Requested move 26 April 2020, though I appreciate your concerns. --MrClog (talk) 23:41, 4 May 2020 (UTC)
- A pandemic is named after a disease, not the virus (and especially not an entire virus family, which is what "coronavirus" is), so that's simply incorrect. sam1370 (talk / contribs) 01:01, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- Also see WP:CRYSTALBALL. QueerFilmNerdtalk 01:18, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- Also historians would all set the coronavirus pandemic to start a few million years ago, not 2020. Bad title. Iluvalar (talk) 14:56, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
Map: Status of Nunavut
Nunavut needs to be grey on the map again. Their single case was a false positive. Source CBC News: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/covid-19-nunavut-false-positive-1.5554545 Basser g (talk) 00:05, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- Wrong venue. You should mention this at the talk page for File:COVID-19 Outbreak World Map per Capita.svg. 107.190.33.254 (talk) 00:09, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
Semi-protected edit request on 5 May 2020
This edit request has been answered. Set the |answered= or |ans= parameter to no to reactivate your request. |
Schools might go back to school on May 25th 203.218.207.118 (talk) 00:55, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- Not done: it's not clear what changes you want to be made. Please mention the specific changes in a "change X to Y" format and provide a reliable source if appropriate. Acalycine (talk) 01:00, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
Reference sources
This edit request has been answered. Set the |answered= or |ans= parameter to no to reactivate your request. |
Original agency sources are preferable to Yahoo News quoting them. Currently the source for "it was later discovered that a person near Paris tested positive for the virus on 27 December 2019 after retesting old samples" is https://www.yahoo.com/news/retesting-samples-french-hospital-discovers-153353216.html. It should be replaced with https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-idUSKBN22G20L which is what appears at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_France#cite_note-Reut4520-29. At the moment I'm being prevented from changing the URL. Mcljlm (talk) 10:07, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- Done: updated as requested. robertsky (talk) 12:57, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- I'd like to independently re-open this request. As at COVID-19 pandemic in France, the following ref should either be added or substituted for the above one since it is the actual original source for this (i.e. it's the paper by the researchers).
- "SARS-COV-2 was already spreading in France in late December 2019". International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents. In Press, Journal Pre-proof. 2020-05-03.
- Thanks, 107.190.33.254 (talk) 16:30, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
- Done: however, fair game if some other editor decides that the additional ref is not necessary here. You may want to update in COVID-19 pandemic in France as well. robertsky (talk) 17:16, 5 May 2020 (UTC)
Is coverage really 'neutral' enough? specially in article leads & 'impact' articles & sections
As a reader, each of my subsequent visits to various COVID-19 pandemic related articles bemuse me more.
If there were no human individual & group failures, then how did the decease spread ? If failures at multiple levels contributed spread of decease where is adequate Wikipedia coverage?
People and groups not following expected precautions on various pretexts- whether for secular or non secular reasons does not seem to to be adequately covered. Whether it is half-heartedness of W.H.O. in issuing timely advisories; to governments, to groups, to individuals; not following advisories. Failures are at multiple level and media seems to have if not enough minimal coverage of the criticism of human failures in giving pandemic proportions to the decease .
My contention is Wikipedians do not seem to cover criticism, as I said each of my visit I find refrain, avoidance, curtailment, window dressing and at places undeclared censorship that criticism does not get wider attention. On side note many times I find Wikipedia consensus more of a democratic process than logical process which tends to indirectly compromise on neutrality.
Most of 'impact' articles & sections are unidirectional, how the COVID-19 pandemic affected 'So and so' but hardly any mention of the 'so and so' were likely contributors to spread of pandemic and many not taking seriously and flouting public health wise very important advisories.
Is not main article COVID-19 pandemic indirectly connected to sub topic article? and talk page of main article does not want to entertain failure of neutrality in subtopic article than how does main article remains neutral?
As a Wikipedia editor my present focus is some other topics, still I attempted to give minor coverage to criticism part, but as a reader and frank reviewer I find information gaps on above mentioned topics.
Thanks and greetings
Bookku (talk) 02:12, 6 May 2020 (UTC)
Thanks, centralized discussion is @ Wikipedia_talk:WikiProject_COVID-19#Is_coverage_really_'neutral'_enough?_specially_in_article_leads_&_'impact'_articles_&_sections thanks.
Bookku (talk) 04:26, 6 May 2020 (UTC)
- Could you give some examples of where specifically in the article you see an absence of neutrality? For example, can you provide an example for "how the COVID-19 pandemic affected 'So and so' but hardly any mention of the 'so and so' were likely contributors to spread of pandemic and many not taking seriously and flouting public health wise very important advisories."? Would be very useful for this discussion. Thanks. Acalycine (talk) 04:55, 6 May 2020 (UTC)
- Wikipedia articles that use British English
- All unassessed articles
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- Top-importance COVID-19 articles
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