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A minor further effect are increases of pollen [[Allergen#Seasonal allergy|season]] lengths and concentrations in some regions of the world.<ref>{{cite news|last1=Schwartz|first1=John|date=8 February 2021|title=Achoo! Climate Change Lengthening Pollen Season in U.S., Study Shows|work=The New York Times|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/08/climate/climate-change-pollen-season.html|url-status=live|access-date=7 March 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210311145423/https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/08/climate/climate-change-pollen-season.html|archive-date=11 March 2021}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|last1=Anderegg|first1=William R. L.|last2=Abatzoglou|first2=John T.|last3=Anderegg|first3=Leander D. L.|last4=Bielory|first4=Leonard|last5=Kinney|first5=Patrick L.|last6=Ziska|first6=Lewis|date=16 February 2021|title=Anthropogenic climate change is worsening North American pollen seasons|journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences|volume=118|issue=7|pages=e2013284118|bibcode=2021PNAS..11820132A|doi=10.1073/pnas.2013284118|issn=0027-8424|pmc=7896283|pmid=33558232|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref name="February 23">{{Cite web|last1=February 23|last2=Denchak|first2=2017 Melissa|title=Global Climate Change: What You Need to Know|url=https://www.nrdc.org/stories/global-climate-change-what-you-need-know|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201019224845/https://www.nrdc.org/stories/global-climate-change-what-you-need-know|archive-date=19 October 2020|access-date=11 October 2020|website=NRDC}}</ref>
A minor further effect are increases of pollen [[Allergen#Seasonal allergy|season]] lengths and concentrations in some regions of the world.<ref>{{cite news|last1=Schwartz|first1=John|date=8 February 2021|title=Achoo! Climate Change Lengthening Pollen Season in U.S., Study Shows|work=The New York Times|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/08/climate/climate-change-pollen-season.html|url-status=live|access-date=7 March 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210311145423/https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/08/climate/climate-change-pollen-season.html|archive-date=11 March 2021}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|last1=Anderegg|first1=William R. L.|last2=Abatzoglou|first2=John T.|last3=Anderegg|first3=Leander D. L.|last4=Bielory|first4=Leonard|last5=Kinney|first5=Patrick L.|last6=Ziska|first6=Lewis|date=16 February 2021|title=Anthropogenic climate change is worsening North American pollen seasons|journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences|volume=118|issue=7|pages=e2013284118|bibcode=2021PNAS..11820132A|doi=10.1073/pnas.2013284118|issn=0027-8424|pmc=7896283|pmid=33558232|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref name="February 23">{{Cite web|last1=February 23|last2=Denchak|first2=2017 Melissa|title=Global Climate Change: What You Need to Know|url=https://www.nrdc.org/stories/global-climate-change-what-you-need-know|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201019224845/https://www.nrdc.org/stories/global-climate-change-what-you-need-know|archive-date=19 October 2020|access-date=11 October 2020|website=NRDC}}</ref>

A sustained [[wet-bulb temperature]] exceeding 35&nbsp;°C is a threshold at which the resilience of human systems is no longer able to adequately cool the skin. A study by [[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration|NOAA]] from 2013 concluded that heat stress will reduce labor capacity considerably under current emissions scenarios.<ref>{{cite journal|author1=John P. Dunne|author2=Ronald J. Stouffer|author3=Jasmin G. John|year=2013|title=Heat stress reduces labor capacity under climate warming|url=http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/news-app/story.77|journal=Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory|volume=3|issue=6|pages=563|bibcode=2013NatCC...3..563D|doi=10.1038/nclimate1827}}</ref> One study found that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees is necessary for avoiding from large and densely populated territories in [[tropical regions]] to pass the threshold of 35&nbsp;°C of wet bulb temperature<ref>{{cite news|date=8 March 2021|title=Global heating pushes tropical regions towards limits of human livability|agency=The Guardian|url=https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/mar/08/global-heating-tropical-regions-human-livability|access-date=24 June 2021}}</ref> There is evidence to show that high temperatures can increase mortality rates among fetuses and children.<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Currie|first1=Janet|last2=Deschênes|first2=Olivier|date=Spring 2016|title=The Future of Children|journal=Children and Climate Change: Introducing the Issue|volume=26|issue=1|pages=3–9|doi=10.1353/foc.2016.0000|jstor=43755227|s2cid=77559783}}</ref> Although the main focus is often on the health impacts and risks of higher temperatures, it should be remembered that they also reduce learning and worker productivity, which can impact a country's economy and development.


==Impacts on diseases (in general)==
==Impacts on diseases (in general)==

Revision as of 10:48, 18 February 2022

Flat expanse of brown grasses and some green trees with black and some gray smoke and visible flames in the distance.
Air pollution from a surface fire in the western desert of Utah (wildfires become more frequent and intense due to climate change).

The effects of climate change on human health include direct effects of extreme weather, leading to injury and loss of life,[1] as well as indirect effects, such as undernutrition brought on by crop failures or lack of access safe drinking water.[2] For instance, having to emigrate due to an extreme weather event can lead to increased rates of physical illnesses and psychological distress.[3] Various infectious diseases are more easily transmitted in a warmer climate, such as dengue fever, which affects children most severely, and malaria. Young children are the most vulnerable to food shortages, and together with older people, to extreme heat.[4] Other health related effects arise from environmental degradation, diseases carried by vectors, food and waterborne infections, changes to food security, and impacts on mental health.

Climate change poses a wide range of risks to population health. If global climate change continues on its current trajectory, these risks will increase in future decades to potentially critical levels.[5] The three main categories of health risks include: (i) direct-acting effects (e.g. due to heat waves, amplified air pollution, and physical weather disasters), (ii) impacts mediated via climate-related changes in ecological systems and relationships (e.g. crop yields, mosquito ecology, marine productivity), and (iii) the more diffuse (indirect) consequences relating to impoverishment, displacement, resource conflicts (e.g. water), and post-disaster mental health problems.

Humans are exposed to climate change through changing weather patterns (temperature, precipitation, sea level rise and more frequent extreme events) and indirectly through changes in water, air and food quality and changes in ecosystems, agriculture, industry and settlements and the economy.[6] Air pollution, wildfires, and heat waves caused by global warming have significantly affected human health,[7] and in 2007, the World Health Organization estimated 150,000 people were being killed by climate-change-related issues every year.[8]

The health effects of climate change are increasingly a matter of concern for the international public health policy community. Studies have found that communication on climate change is more likely to lead to engagement by the public if it is framed as a health concern, rather than just as an environmental matter. Health is one part of how climate change affects humans, together with aspects such as displacement and migration, security and social impacts.

Climate change can facilitate outbreaks of zoonoses, i.e. diseases that pass from animals to humans.[9] One example of such outbreaks is the COVID-19 pandemic. In some cases there can be health benefits, but in the clear majority of observed and predicted cases, the health impacts of climate change are negative.

Overview of impacts of higher temperatures

Illustration of urban heat exposure via a temperature distribution map: blue shows cool temperatures, red warm, and white hot areas.

A main effect of climate change on human health stems from increased average temperatures, not necessarily in the form of heat wave events.

A study that investigated 13,115 cities found that extreme heat exposure of a wet bulb globe temperature above 30 °C tripled between 1983 and 2016. It increased by ~50% when the population growth in these cities is not taken into account. Urban areas and living spaces are often significantly warmer than surrounding rural areas, partly due to the urban heat island effect.[10][11]

The higher temperatures may have a substantial effect on human physiology and mental health. These effects may also be indirect: for example during the past four decades "the number of hours in which temperatures were too high for safe outdoor exercise" increased by an average loss of 3.7 h for people in the low HDI country group. Exposure to extreme heat "poses an acute health hazard, with individuals older than 65 years, populations in urban environments, and people with health conditions being particularly at risk".[12]

It has been projected with high confidence that climate change will bring some benefits in temperate areas, such as fewer deaths from cold exposure, and some mixed effects such as changes in range and transmission potential of malaria in Africa.[13]: 48  Benefits were projected to be outweighed by negative health effects of rising temperatures, especially in developing countries.

Warming above 1.5 degrees can make tropical regions uninhabitable, because the threshold of 35 degrees of wet bulb temperature (the limit of human adaptation to heat and humidity), will be passed. 43% of the human population live in the tropics.[14]

A minor further effect are increases of pollen season lengths and concentrations in some regions of the world.[15][16][17]

A sustained wet-bulb temperature exceeding 35 °C is a threshold at which the resilience of human systems is no longer able to adequately cool the skin. A study by NOAA from 2013 concluded that heat stress will reduce labor capacity considerably under current emissions scenarios.[18] One study found that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees is necessary for avoiding from large and densely populated territories in tropical regions to pass the threshold of 35 °C of wet bulb temperature[19] There is evidence to show that high temperatures can increase mortality rates among fetuses and children.[20] Although the main focus is often on the health impacts and risks of higher temperatures, it should be remembered that they also reduce learning and worker productivity, which can impact a country's economy and development.

Impacts on diseases (in general)

A video summarizing the interplay between global warming and Wet-bulb temperature.

Climate change is the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century.

World Health Organization, 2015[21][22]

Climate change was responsible for 3% of diarrhoea, 3% of malaria, and 3.8% of dengue fever deaths worldwide in 2004.[23] Total attributable mortality was about 0.2% of deaths in 2004; of these, 85% were child deaths. The effects of more frequent and extreme storms were excluded from this study.

A 2014 study by the World Health Organization[24] estimated the effect of climate change on human health, but not all of the effects of climate change were included in their estimates. For example, the effects of more frequent and extreme storms were excluded. The report further assumed continued progress in health and growth. Even so, climate change was projected to cause an additional 250,000 deaths per year between 2030 and 2050.[25]

Warming oceans and a changing climate result in extreme weather patterns which have brought about an increase of infectious diseases—both new and re-emerging.[26][27] These extreme weather patterns are creating extended rainy seasons in some areas,[28] and extended periods of drought in others,[29] as well as introducing new climates to different regions.[29] These extended seasons are creating climates that are able to sustain disease vectors for longer periods of time, allowing them to multiply rapidly, and also creating climates that are allowing the introduction and survival of new vectors.[26]

In September 2021 more than 230 medical journals issued a statement saying that climate change already severely hurts human health, including by: "an increase in heat deaths, dehydration and kidney function loss, skin cancer, tropical infections, mental health issues, pregnancy complications, allergies, and heart and lung disease, and deaths associated with them". A 1.5 degree temperature rise with biodiversity loss will cause a catastrophic damage. They called to not allow such temperature rise and stop biodiversity loss.[30]

In 2016 the United Nations Environment Programme published the "UNEP FRONTIERS 2016 REPORT". Its second chapter was dedicated to zoonotic diseases (e.g., diseases that pass from animals to humans), and talked about how deforestation, climate change, and livestock agriculture are among the main causes of increased disease risk. It also mentioned how every 4 months a new disease is discovered in humans, and that as of 2016, outbreaks have cost lives and financial losses amounting to billions dollars; future pandemics could cost trillions of dollars.[31]

Impact of warmer and wetter climates

See also: Waterborne disease and climate change

Mosquito-borne diseases are probably the greatest threat to humans as they include malaria, elephantiasis, Rift Valley fever, yellow fever, and dengue fever.[32][33][34] Studies are showing higher prevalence of these diseases in areas that have experienced extreme flooding and drought.[32][33] Flooding creates more standing water for mosquitoes to breed; as well, shown that these vectors are able to feed more and grow faster in warmer climates.[26] As the climate warms over the oceans and coastal regions, warmer temperatures are also creeping up to higher elevations allowing mosquitoes to survive in areas they had never been able to before.[26] As the climate continues to warm there is a risk that malaria will make a return to the developed world.[26]

Ticks are also thriving in the warmer temperatures allowing them to feed and grow at a faster rate.[35] The black legged tick, a carrier of Lyme disease, when not feeding, spends its time burrowed in soil absorbing moisture.[28][36] Ticks die when the climate either becomes too cold or when the climate becomes too dry, causing the ticks to dry out.[28][36] The natural environmental controls that used to keep the tick populations in check are disappearing, and warmer and wetter climates are allowing the ticks to breed and grow at an alarming rate, resulting in an increase in Lyme disease, both in existing areas and in areas where it has not been seen before.[28][35]

Other diseases on the rise due to extreme weather include hantavirus,[37] schistosomiasis,[33][34] onchocerciasis (river blindness),[34] and tuberculosis.[27] It also causes the rise in hay fever, as when the weather gets warmer there is a rise in pollen levels in the air.[38][39]

Increased heat, generated by the buildup of carbon, has been found to help disease-carrying organisms such as mosquitos thrive by producing stable environments for them. A research organization known as Climate Central states “The land area of the U.S. most suitable for Aedes albopictus mosquitoes is projected to increase from 5 percent to about 50 percent by 2100, putting 60 percent of the northeastern U.S.’ population at risk for the diseases carried by this mosquito, including West Nile virus, dengue and Zika.”[40] An outbreak of diseases like the West Nile and Zika virus could trigger a crisis since it would cause severe illness in people as well as birth defects in infants. Less advanced countries would be especially affected as they may have very limited resources to combat an infestation.

Impact of warmer oceans

The warming oceans are becoming a breeding ground for toxic algae blooms (also known as red tides) and cholera.[26][34][41] As the nitrogen and phosphorus levels in the oceans increase, the cholera bacteria that lives within zooplankton emerge from their dormant state.[41] The changing winds and changing ocean currents push the zooplankton toward the coastline, carrying the cholera bacteria, which then contaminate drinking water, causing cholera outbreaks.[41] As flooding increases there is also an increase in cholera epidemics as the flood waters that are carrying the bacteria are infiltrating the drinking water supply.[42] El Nino has also been linked with cholera outbreaks because this weather pattern warms the shoreline waters, causing the cholera bacteria to multiply rapidly.[41][42]

Impact of warmer freshwater

Warmer freshwater is increasing the presence of the amoeba Naegleria fowleri, in freshwater and the parasite Cryptosporidium in pools, and both can cause a severe disease. Therefore, climate change will probably raise the number of those pathogens.[43] According to a letter of health officials, warning from the Naegleria fowleri: "Infections usually occur when temperatures increase for prolonged periods of time, which results in higher water temperatures and lower water levels,".[44]

Impacts on infectious diseases

See also: Waterborne disease and climate change
This section is an excerpt from Climate change and infectious diseases.[edit]

Global climate change has increased the occurrence of some infectious diseases.[45] Infectious diseases whose transmission is impacted by climate change include, for example, vector-borne diseases like dengue fever, malaria, tick-borne diseases, leishmaniasis, zika fever, chikungunya and Ebola. One mechanism contributing to increased disease transmission is that climate change is altering the geographic range and seasonality of the insects (or disease vectors) that can carry the diseases. Scientists stated a clear observation in 2022: "The occurrence of climate-related food-borne and waterborne diseases has increased (very high confidence)."[46]: 11 

Infectious diseases that are sensitive to climate can be grouped into: vector-borne diseases (transmitted via mosquitos, ticks etc.), waterborne diseases (transmitted via viruses or bacteria through water), and food-borne diseases.(spread through pathogens via food)[47]: 1107  Climate change affects the distribution of these diseases due to the expanding geographic range and seasonality of these diseases and their vectors.[48]: 9  Like other ways climate change affects human health, climate change exacerbates existing inequalities and challenges in managing infectious disease.

Mosquito-borne diseases that are sensitive to climate include malaria, lymphatic filariasis, Rift Valley fever, yellow fever, dengue fever, Zika virus, and chikungunya.[49][50][51] Scientists found in 2022 that rising temperatures are increasing the areas where dengue fever, malaria and other mosquito-carried diseases are able to spread.[47]: 1062  Warmer temperatures are also advancing to higher elevations, allowing mosquitoes to survive in places that were previously in hospitable to them.[47]: 1045  This risks malaria returning to areas where it was previously eradicated.[52]

Health impacts due to extreme weather events

Further information: Effects of climate change § Extreme weather events

Infectious disease often accompanies extreme weather events, such as floods, earthquakes and drought. These local epidemics occur due to loss of infrastructure, such as hospitals and sanitation services, but also because of changes in local ecology and environment. For example, malaria outbreaks have been strongly associated with the El Niño cycles of a number of countries (India and Venezuela, for example). El Niño can lead to drastic, though temporary, changes in the environment such as temperature fluctuations and flash floods.[53] Because of global warming there has been a marked trend towards more variable and anomalous weather. This has led to an increase in the number and severity of extreme weather events. This trend towards more variability and fluctuation is perhaps more important, in terms of its impact on human health, than that of a gradual and long-term trend towards higher average temperature.[53]

Infectious disease often accompanies extreme weather events, such as floods, earthquakes and drought.[54] Local epidemics occur due to loss of infrastructure, such as hospitals and sanitation services, but also because of changes in local ecology and environment.

Droughts

Many of the consequences of droughts have impacts on human health. This can be through destruction of food supply (loss of crop yields), malnutrition and with this, dozens of associated diseases and health problems. Immune function decreases, so mortality rates due to infectious and other diseases climb. For those whose incomes were affected by droughts (namely agriculturalists and pastoralists), and for those who can barely afford the increased food prices, the cost to see a doctor or visit a clinic can simply be out of reach. Without treatment, some of these diseases can hinder one's ability to work, decreasing future opportunities for income and perpetuating the vicious cycle of poverty.[55]

This section is an excerpt from Effects of climate change § Droughts.[edit]
A dry lakebed in California. In 2022, the state was experiencing its most serious drought in 1,200 years, worsened by climate change.[56]
Climate change affects many factors associated with droughts. These include how much rain falls and how fast the rain evaporates again. Warming over land increases the severity and frequency of droughts around much of the world.[57][58]: 1057  In some tropical and subtropical regions of the world, there will probably be less rain due to global warming. This will make them more prone to drought. Droughts are set to worsen in many regions of the world. These include Central America, the Amazon and south-western South America. They also include West and Southern Africa. The Mediterranean and south-western Australia are also some of these regions.[58]: 1157 

Higher temperatures increase evaporation. This dries the soil and increases plant stress. Agriculture suffers as a result. This means even regions where overall rainfall is expected to remain relatively stable will experience these impacts.[58]: 1157  These regions include central and northern Europe. Without climate change mitigation, around one third of land areas are likely to experience moderate or more severe drought by 2100.[58]: 1157  Due to global warming droughts are more frequent and intense than in the past.[59]

Several impacts make their impacts worse. These are increased water demand, population growth and urban expansion in many areas.[60] Land restoration can help reduce the impact of droughts. One example of this is agroforestry.[61]

Floods

Further information: Effects of climate change § Floods

Health concerns around the world can be linked to floods. Floods have short and long term negative implications to peoples' health and well-being. Short term implications include mortalities, injuries and diseases, while long term implications include non-communicable diseases and psychosocial health aspects.[62] With the increase in temperatures worldwide due to climate change, extreme precipitation events are projected to increase, and this may lead to more severe flooding.[63] It has been determined that climate change and variability have the potential to drastically impact human exposure to flood hazards, but this comes with a lot of uncertainty due to multiple climate models.[64] Similar to droughts, climate change has also been shown to have the potential to increase the frequency of bigger storm events.[65] This increase in the frequency of large storm events would alter existing Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (IDF curves) due to the change in frequency, but also by lifting and steepening the curves in the future.[66] The use of intensity-duration-frequency curves requires the assumption that the past will be representative of future conditions. However, in the field of hydrology, stationarity may no longer be a good assumption due to the rapid changes from climate change.[67]

Mortalities are not uncommon when it comes to floods. The Countries with lower incomes are more likely to have more fatalities, because of the lack of resources they have and the supplies to prepare for a flood. This does depend on the type and properties of the flood. For example, if there is a flash flood it would not matter how prepared you are. Fatalities connected directly to floods are usually caused by drowning; the waters in a flood are very deep and have strong currents.[62] Deaths do not just occur from drowning, deaths are connected with dehydration, heat stroke, heart attack and any other illness that needs medical supplies that cannot be delivered.[62] Due to flooding mud, grit or sand particles can be deposited into the lakes and rivers. These particles cause the water to become dirty and this becomes a problem as the dirty water leads to water related diseases. For example, cholera and guinea worm disease are caused by dirty water.[68]

Injuries can lead to an excessive amount of morbidity when a flood occurs. Victims who already have a chronic illness and then sustain a non-fatal injury are put at a higher risk for that non-fatal injury to become fatal. Injuries are not isolated to just those who were directly in the flood, rescue teams and even people delivering supplies can sustain an injury. Injuries can occur anytime during the flood process; before, during and after.[62] Before the flood people are trying to evacuate as fast as they can, motor vehicle accidents, in this case, are a primary source of injuries obtained post flood. During floods accidents occur with falling debris or any of the many fast moving objects in the water. After the flood rescue attempts are where large numbers injuries can occur.[62]

Communicable diseases are increased due to many pathogens and bacteria that are being transported by the water. In floods where there are many fatalities in the water there is a hygienic problem with the handling of bodies, due to the panic stricken mode that comes over a town in distress.[62] There are many water contaminated diseases such as cholera, hepatitis A, hepatitis E and diarrheal diseases, to mention a few. There are certain diseases that are directly correlated with floods they include any dermatitis and any wound, nose, throat or ear infection. Gastrointestinal disease and diarrheal diseases are very common due to a lack of clean water during a flood. Most of clean water supplies are contaminated when flooding occurs. Hepatitis A and E are common because of the lack of sanitation in the water and in living quarters depending on where the flood is and how prepared the community is for a flood.[62]

Coastal flooding in a Florida community.

Respiratory diseases are a common after the disaster has occurred. This depends on the amount of water damage and mold that grows after an incident. Sea level rises contribute to wet housing, which is strongly associated with respiratory issues. It is estimated that 3.3 billion people live near coastal regions and will likely experience an increase in water exposure. Research suggests that there will be an increase of 30-50% in adverse respiratory health outcomes caused by dampness and mold exposure for those living in coastal and wetland areas. Fungal contamination in homes is associated with increased allergic rhinitis and asthma.[69] Vector borne diseases increase as well due to the increase in still water after the floods have settled. The diseases that are vector borne are malaria, dengue, West Nile, and yellow fever.[62] Non-communicable diseases are a long-term effect of floods. They are either caused by a flood or they are worsened by a flood; they include cancer, lung disease and diabetes. Floods have a huge impact on victims' psychosocial integrity. People suffer from a wide variety of losses and stress. One of the most treated illness in long-term health problems are depression caused by the flood and all the tragedy that flows with one.[62]

Hurricanes and thunderstorms

Further information: Effects of climate change § Tropical cyclones and hurricanes

Stronger hurricanes create more opportunities for vectors to breed and infectious diseases to flourish.[26][28] Extreme weather also means stronger winds. These winds can carry vectors tens of thousands of kilometers, resulting in an introduction of new infectious agents to regions that have never seen them before, making the humans in these regions even more susceptible.[26]

Another result of hurricanes is increased rainwater, which promotes flooding. Hurricanes result in ruptured pollen grains, which releases respirable aeroallergens. Thunderstorms cause a concentration of pollen grains at the ground level, which causes an increase in the release of allergenic particles in the atmosphere due to rupture by osmotic shock. Around 20–30 minutes after a thunderstorm, there is an increased risk for people with pollen allergies to experience severe asthmatic exacerbations, due to high concentration inhalation of allergenic peptides.[69]

This section is an excerpt from Tropical cyclones and climate change.[edit]

Climate change affects tropical cyclones in a variety of ways: an intensification of rainfall and wind speed, an increase in the frequency of very intense storms and a poleward extension of where the cyclones reach maximum intensity are among the consequences of human-induced climate change.[70][71] Tropical cyclones use warm, moist air as their source of energy or fuel. As climate change is warming ocean temperatures, there is potentially more of this fuel available.[72]

Between 1979 and 2017, there was a global increase in the proportion of tropical cyclones of Category 3 and higher on the Saffir–Simpson scale. The trend was most clear in the north Indian Ocean,[73][74] North Atlantic and in the Southern Indian Ocean. In the north Indian Ocean, particularly the Arabian Sea, the frequency, duration, and intensity of cyclones have increased significantly. There has been a 52% increase in the number of cyclones in the Arabian Sea, while the number of very severe cyclones have increased by 150%, during 1982–2019. Meanwhile, the total duration of cyclones in the Arabian Sea has increased by 80% while that of very severe cyclones has increased by 260%.[73] In the North Pacific, tropical cyclones have been moving poleward into colder waters and there was no increase in intensity over this period.[75] With 2 °C (3.6 °F) warming, a greater percentage (+13%) of tropical cyclones are expected to reach Category 4 and 5 strength.[70] A 2019 study indicates that climate change has been driving the observed trend of rapid intensification of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. Rapidly intensifying cyclones are hard to forecast and therefore pose additional risk to coastal communities.[76]

Heatwaves

Further information: Effects of climate change § Heatwaves

Another impact that the warming global temperature has had is on the frequency and severity of heat waves. The effects of heatwaves on human health are generally worse in urban areas, due to the "heat island" effect. The heat island effect is when urban areas experience much higher temperatures that surrounding rural environments. This is caused by the extensive areas of treeless asphalt, along with many large heat-retaining buildings that physically block cooling breezes.[69]

The human response to heat stress can be hyperthermia, heat stroke and other harmful effects. Heat illness can relate to many of the organs and systems including: brain, heart, kidneys, liver, etc.[77] Heat waves have also resulted in epidemics of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Recent[when?] studies have shown that prolonged heat exposure, physical exertion, and dehydration are sufficient factors to developing CKD.[78] These cases are occurring across the world congruently with heat stress nephropathy.

A 2015 report revealed that the risk of dying from chronic lung disease during a heat wave was 1.8-8.2% higher compared to average summer temperatures. Bodily stress from heat also causes fluid loss, which disrupts pulmonary perfusion. In combination with higher pollutant concentrations, this leads to bronchial inflammation. A 2016 study found in people with moderate to severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), increased indoor temperatures resulted in worsening breathlessness, cough, and sputum production. A 2009 study, conducted in New York, found a 7.6% increase in hospitalization rate for COPD patients for every 1 °C increase in temperatures above 29 °C.[69]

The human body requires evaporative cooling to prevent overheating, even with a low activity level. With excessive ambient heat and humidity during heatwaves, adequate evaporative cooling might be compromised. Even under ideal conditions, sustained exposure to a wet-bulb temperature exceeding about 35 °C (95 °F) is fatal. As of 2020, only two weather stations had recorded 35 °C wet-bulb temperatures, and only very briefly, but the frequency and duration of these events is expected to rise with ongoing climate change.[79][80][81] Elderly populations and those with co-morbidities are at a significantly increased health risk from increased heat.[69]

Wildfires

Further information: Wildfire § Climate change effects, and Wildfire § Health effects

Climate change increases wildfire potential and activity.[82] Climate change leads to a warmer ground temperature and its effects include earlier snowmelt dates, drier than expected vegetation, increased number of potential fire days, increased occurrence of summer droughts, and a prolonged dry season.[83]

Warming spring and summer temperatures increase flammability of materials that make up the forest floors.[83] Warmer temperatures cause dehydration of these materials, which prevents rain from soaking up and dampening fires. Furthermore, pollution from wildfires can exacerbate climate change by releasing atmospheric aerosols, which modify cloud and precipitation patterns.

Wood smoke from wildfires produces particulate matter that has damaging effects to human health.[84] The primary pollutants in wood smoke are carbon monoxide and nitric oxide.[83] Through the destruction of forests and human-designed infrastructure, wildfire smoke releases other toxic and carcinogenic compounds, such as formaldehyde and hydrocarbons.[53] These pollutants damage human health by evading the mucociliary clearance system and depositing in the upper respiratory tract, where they exert toxic effects.[83]

The health effects of wildfire smoke exposure include exacerbation and development of respiratory illness such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder; increased risk of lung cancer, mesothelioma and tuberculosis; increased airway hyper-responsiveness; changes in levels of inflammatory mediators and coagulation factors; and respiratory tract infection.[84] It may also have intrauterine effects on fetal development, resulting in low birth weight newborns.[85] Because wildfire smoke travels and is often not isolated to a single geographic region, the health effects are widespread among populations.[53]

Air pollution

Ozone (O3) is a growing problem due to increasing emissions of methane, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides.[69] Some research indicate that climate change has already had negative effects on air quality. One study concluded that from 1860 to 2000, the global population-weighted fine particle concentrations increased by 5% and near-surface ozone concentrations by 2% due to climate change.[86]

Ground-level O3 gas is a pollutant that has a damaging effect on the human respiratory system. It increases the frequency of asthma exacerbations, infection, and COPD. O3 induces airway inflammation and increased airway permeability, while decreasing lung function. Long-term exposure to ozone has been found to promote inflammation, impair pulmonary function, increase the risk of death from respiratory causes. This is particularly relevant for those predisposed to respiratory disease. A 2013 study found that increased O3 levels cause stronger allergic response to birch pollens in asthmatics. Studies have shown that higher ozone concentrations are associated with preterm birth, reproductive health, and cognitive decline

Increased ground-level O3 strongly correlates with the highest number of hot days in the summer. Higher temperatures drive more thunderstorms and increase the frequency and severity of forest fires. Forest fires result in higher levels of airborne particulates, which creates a significant health risk for human respiratory and cardiovascular systems. Climate change directly causes a variety of extreme weather events, many of which are often deeply interconnected and pose severe health risks.[69]

Impacts on nutrition and clean drinking water

Food production (agriculture and fisheries)

Main articles: Climate change and agriculture and Effects of climate change on oceans

Food scarcity is a major key for many populations and is one of the prominent concerns with the changing climate. Currently, 1/6 of the global population are without adequate food supply.[87] By 2050, the global population is projected to reach 9 billion requiring global food productions to increase by 50% to meet population demand.[87][88] In short, food scarcity is a growing concern that, according to many researchers, is projected to worsen with climate change because of a number of factors including extreme weather events and an increase in pests and pathogens.

With seafood being a major protein source for so much of the population, there are inherent health risks associated with climate change. Increased agricultural runoff and warmer water temperature allows for eutrophication of ocean waters. This increased growth of algae and phytoplankton in turn can have dire consequences. These algal blooms can emit toxic substances that can be harmful to humans if consumed. Organisms, such as shellfish, marine crustaceans and even fish, feed on or near these infected blooms, ingest the toxins and can be consumed unknowingly by humans. One of these toxin producing algae is Pseudo-nitzschia fraudulenta. This species produces a substance called domoic acid which is responsible for amnesic shellfish poisoning.[89] The toxicity of this species has been shown to increase with greater CO2 concentrations associated with ocean acidification.[89] Some of the more common illnesses reported from harmful algal blooms include; Ciguatera fish poisoning, paralytic shellfish poisoning, azaspiracid shellfish poisoning, diarrhetic shellfish poisoning, neurotoxic shellfish poisoning and the above-mentioned amnesic shellfish poisoning.[89]

Availability of drinking water

Further information: Effects of climate change § Water security

During drought, water supplies are even more susceptible to harmful algal blooms and microorganisms.[90] Algal blooms increase water turbidity, suffocating aquatic plants, and can deplete oxygen, killing fish. Some kinds of blue-green algae create neurotoxins, hepatoxins, cytotoxins or endotoxins that can cause serious and sometimes fatal neurological, liver and digestive diseases in humans. Cyanobacteria grow best in warmer temperatures (especially above 25 degrees Celsius), and so areas of the world that are experiencing general warming as a result of climate change are also experiencing harmful algal blooms more frequently and for longer periods of time. During times of intense precipitation (such as during the “wet season” in much of the tropical and sub-tropical world), nutrients that cyanobacteria depend on are carried from groundwater and the earth's surface into bodies of water. As drought begins and these bodies gradually dry up, the nutrients are concentrated, providing the perfect opportunity for algal blooms.[91][92][93]

As the climate warms, it changes the nature of global rainfall, evaporation, snow, stream flow and other factors that affect water supply and quality. Rising sea levels cause saltwater to enter into fresh underground water and freshwater streams. This reduces the amount of freshwater available for drinking and farming.

Fifty percent of the world's fresh water consumption is dependent glacial runoff.[94] Earth's glaciers are expected to melt within the next forty years, greatly decreasing fresh water flow in the hotter times of the year, causing everyone to depend on rainwater, resulting in large shortages and fluctuations in fresh water availability which largely effects agriculture, power supply, and human health and well-being.[53] Many power sources and a large portion of agriculture rely on glacial runoff in the late summer. “In many parts of the world, disappearing mountain glaciers and droughts will make fresh, clean water for drinking, bathing, and other necessary human (and livestock) uses scarce" and a valuable commodity.[53]

Impacts on mental health

This section is an excerpt from Psychological impact of climate change § Mental health.[edit]

Carbon dioxide levels and human cognition

Higher levels of indoor and outdoor CO2 levels may impair human cognition.[95][96][97]

The Ethiopian Highlands

Drowning accidents

Researchers found that there is a strong correlation between higher winter temperatures and drowning accidents in large lakes, because the ice gets thinner and weaker.[98]

Policy responses

Due to its significant impact on human health,[99][100] climate change has become a major concern for public health policy. The United States Environmental Protection Agency had issued a 100-page report on global warming and human health back in 1989.[101][102] By the early years of the 21st century, climate change was increasingly addressed as a public health concern at a global level, for example in 2006 at Nairobi by UN secretary general Kofi Annan. Since 2018, factors such as the 2018 heat wave, the Greta effect and the October 2018 IPPC 1.5 °C report further increased the urgency for responding to climate change as a global health issue.[101][103][39]

While a matter of international and national concern, health impacts from climate change have been described as "inherently local".[103] For example, a city may be adjacent to the sea and suffer a heat island effect, so may have considerably different climate related health concerns to a nearby small town located only 20 miles inland.[103] The health impact of climate change are expected to rise in line with predicted ongoing global warming.[104][101]

The 2015 Lancet "Commission on Health and Climate Change" concluded that "tackling climate change could be the greatest global health opportunity of this century".[105]

Economic development is an important component of possible adaptation to climate change. Economic growth on its own, however, is not sufficient to insulate the world's population from disease and injury due to climate change.[6] Future vulnerability to climate change will depend not only on the extent of social and economic change, but also on how the benefits and costs of change are distributed in society.[106] For example, in the 19th century, rapid urbanization in western Europe led to health plummeting.[106] Other factors important in determining the health of populations include education, the availability of health services, and public-health infrastructure.[6]

Society and culture

Health equity

Health equity and climate change have a major impact on human health and quality of life, and are interlinked in a number of ways. The report of the WHO Commission on Social Determinants of Health points out that disadvantaged communities are likely to shoulder a disproportionate share of the burden of climate change because of their increased exposure and vulnerability to health threats. Over 90 percent of malaria and diarrhea deaths are borne by children aged 5 years or younger, mostly in developing countries.[107] Other severely affected population groups include women, the elderly and people living in small island developing states and other coastal regions, mega-cities or mountainous areas.[108]

Climate change threatens to slow, halt or reverse international progress towards reducing child under-nutrition, deaths from diarrheal diseases and the spread of other infectious diseases. Climate change acts predominantly by exacerbating the existing, often enormous, health problems, especially in the poorer parts of the world. Current variations in weather conditions already have many adverse impacts on the health of poor people in developing nations,[109] and these too are likely to be 'multiplied' by the added stresses of climate change.

Much of the health burden associated with climate change falls on vulnerable people (e.g. coastline inhabitants, indigenous peoples, economically disadvantaged communities). Often these people will have made a disproportionately low contribution toward man-made global warming, thus leading to concerns over climate justice.[110][39][101]

Climate communication

Studies have found that when communicating climate change with the public, it can help encourage engagement if it is framed as a health concern, rather than as an environmental issue. This is especially the case when comparing a health related framing to one that emphasized environmental doom, as was common in the media at least up until 2017.[111][112]

See also

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