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Rakhine offensive (2023–present)

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Rakhine Offensive
Part of Myanmar civil war (2021–present)

Map of gains as of 8 November 2024 made by the Arakan Army since 2023
Date13 November 2023 – present
(1 year, 1 month, 1 week and 3 days)
Location
Rakhine State, Paletwa Township (Chin State) and Ngape Township (Magway Region), Myanmar
Status Ongoing
Territorial
changes		 Arakan Army captures 9 major towns and 8 townships[a]
Belligerents

State Administration Council

Commanders and leaders
Units involved

 Tatmadaw

Disputed

Arakan Army
People's Defence Force

Asho Chin Defence Force[6]
Strength
Unknown 38,000+ (self-claimed February 2024)
15,000+ (estimated February 2024)
Casualties and losses
1,240–1,440+ killed (incomplete list) Unknown
  • 735 civilians killed, 1,569 injured (per a statement by AA, 18 November 2024)[7]
  • Nearly 200 civilians killed, more than 500 injured (per RFA, 3 April 2024)[8]
  • Over 550,000 displaced (per ULA report, 18 November 2024)[7]
  • More than 300,000 displaced (per UNOCHA, 14 March 2024)[9]

On 13 November 2023, the Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic resistance group active in the civil war in Myanmar, launched a military offensive against Myanmar's military junta in Rakhine and southern Chin State. Fighting began concurrently with the launch of Operation 1027, which the Arakan Army, as a member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, also participated in. The offensive broke an informal ceasefire between the Arakan Army and the junta that had been in place for a year. During the offensive, the Arakan Army captured several towns in northern Rakhine, including Mrauk U, the capital of Mrauk-U District and the historical capital of Arakan. These gains gave them total control over most of northern Arakan. The Arakan Army followed these successes by besieging Sittwe, the state capital, and Ann, the headquarters of the junta's western command. They also launched offensives in the southern parts of the state, capturing several towns and throwing junta forces into disarray. The International Institute for Strategic Studies reported that the Arakan Army's sweeping gains "are already enough to enable self-rule over a large portion of the Rakhine homeland and to reshape the wider balance of power in Myanmar."[10]

Background

[edit]
Further information: Conflict in Rakhine State (2016–present) and Myanmar civil war (2021-present)

The Arakan Army and its civilian wing the United League of Arakan were founded in 2009 and quickly became one of Myanmar's strongest rebel groups.[11] They gained territory in northern Rakhine State and Paletwa Township in southern Chin State by 2018 and fought against the Tatmadaw in late 2018 after the central government entered their territory.[12] The fighting intensified until the Arakan Army announced a unilateral ceasefire in November 2020 to facilitate voting in the 2020 general election.[13]

After the resurgence of civil war in 2021, the Arakan Army focused more on expanding their administrative capabilities.[11] However, over the 2022 monsoon season, the ceasefire broke down. With the military's attention diverted to the increasing resistance elsewhere and increasing popular support for an alliance with the NUG, the AA sought to expand its influence into southern Rakhine.[14]

On 26 November 2022, the Arakan Army and the junta agreed to a temporary ceasefire brokered by Yōhei Sasakawa of the Nippon Foundation. Arakan Army spokespeople maintained that they agreed to the ceasefire for humanitarian reasons, as opposed to international pressure. The Arakan Army did not withdraw from fortifications held at the time of the ceasefire.[15]

After the beginning of Operation 1027, the displays of Tatmadaw incompetence and the rapid gains made by the Three Brotherhood Alliance inspired many previously disconnected resistance groups began to work towards unity to overthrow the Tatmadaw, which came into power after a coup in 2021. The Arakan Army, an ethnic armed organisation (EAO) made up of primarily Arakanese which fights for the self-determination of the Arakan, broke the 1-year ceasefire agreed to in 2022 on 13 November 2023 by attacking Border Guard Police in Rathedaung Township.[citation needed]

After several months, the Arakan Army has made rapid gains throughout Rakhine and southern Chin State, capturing 8 out of 17 townships in Rakhine State, alongside 9 major towns throughout the state. Despite wide support for the offensive, ethnic Rohingya have been in conflict with the Arakan Army, with many[who?] accusing the Tatmadaw of attempting to stir ethnic conflict using several aligned EAO's and protests.

Timeline

[edit]

Offensive begins

[edit]

On the morning of 13 November 2023, the Arakan Army (AA) attacked two Border Guard Police stations in Rathedaung Township, breaking the Rakhine State Ceasefire Agreement between the junta and the Arakan Army. Dong Paik camp was captured by 6:30 am. On 14 November, the junta had already abandoned around 40 outposts in Rakhine state after attacks by the Arakan Army, but few came under their immediate control.[16] Dozens of Myanmar security officers surrendered to the Arakan Army the following day.[17]

The following night, the Arakan Army launched an attack on Pauktaw, seizing the township police station. By the next morning, the Arakan Army had taken control of the town. The junta sent two helicopter gunships alongside naval support to fire back, including at civilian housing, with heavy machine gun fire. Pauktaw's proximity to the Rakhine state capital, Sittwe, posed a threat to the junta.[18] Junta forces detained about 100 residents who were unable to flee, and positioned themselves to surround the town, using two navy ships to blockade the harbour.[19]

On 14 November, the Arakan Army launched an offensive in Paletwa Township on the Chin-Rakhine border. The Arakan Army accused the Tatmadaw of using chemical weapons during the ensuing battles.[20] On 6 December, the Arakan Army announced that they had captured a major military base in the township.[21]

On 8 January 2024, the Arakan Army continued the offensive and captured the Taung Shey Taung base and its 200 junta soldiers in Kyauktaw Township, Rakhine State. They then escalated their offensive into Paletwa Township, Chin State with the aim of capturing Paletwa, a strategic town for the Indo-Myanmar Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project[22] On 15 January, the Arakan Army seized Paletwa and the entire township, declaring it a "military council-free area."[23][24] A week later, the Arakan Army captured the town of Pauktaw in Rakhine State concluding a three-month battle.[25]

On 17 January 2024, the Taingen camp on the Falam road to the Indian border was captured, with Chin resistance forces seizing arms and ammunition.[26] On 20 January 2024, after more than 600 junta soldiers and refugees crossed the India–Myanmar border, the Government of India announced a plan to fence the entire border.[27]

Fall of Mrauk U

[edit]
Mrauk U ancient temples in 2017

The Arakan Army captured most remaining Tatmadaw bases in Minbya by 6 February, almost taking full control of the township. On the same day, the Arakan Army seized the Taung Pyo junta outpost along the border with Bangladesh in Maungdaw Township.[28] The Arakan Army captured Kyauktaw the next day and continued fighting in Mrauk U and Ramree.[29]

On February 7, the Arakan Army took control of Minbya Township after capturing the last two military battalion headquarters in the township.[30] Colonel Min Min Tun, commander of the 11th Light Infantry Division of the Tatmadaw, was killed during a battle at the base of the 377th Light Infantry Battalion in Mrauk-U Township.[31]

The Tatmadaw abandoned Myebon to reinforce Kyaukphyu on 9 February, leaving ammunition behind in their rush and abandoning the southern township of Mrauk-U District.[32] The same day, the AA took the city of Mrauk U, completing their control over the township. During the battle, three Myanmar Navy landing craft were reportedly sunk.[33][34] In response to the seizure of the three towns, the junta blew up bridges in Kyauktaw Township and the state capital, Sittwe.[35]

Consolidation of Mrauk U District

[edit]

During an evacuation attempt by the junta from Kyauktaw town during attacks by the Arakan Army on the same day, three naval landing craft were sunk. This resulted in the death of 700-900 retreating junta soldiers and their family members.[36][37] According to a statement from the Arakan Army, the rebels rescued Brigadier General Zaw Min Tun, commander of the 9th Military Operations Command, and some of his soldiers from the river.[31]

The Arakan Army announced on 30 January that it was fighting to oust the junta from the coastal city of Ramree in Rakhine State. The junta had reportedly bombarded the town from gunboats for weeks before fighting began. 8,000 of the town's residents had been displaced due to the fighting. The AA claimed that the regime forces used chemical weapons to defend the town, a claim that the junta denied.[38]

On 15 February, the Arakan Army captured Myebon[39] and started intensifying their assaults on Ramree. These assaults killed around 80 junta reinforcements between 24 and 26 February.[40] On 28 February, the Arakan Army captured the final junta outpost in Minbya Township, taking full control of the township.[41]

Continued northern offensives

[edit]

On 5 March, the Arakan Army reportedly captured the town of Ponnagyun and its surrounding township.[42] During the battle, junta warships and fighter jets shelled the town, eventually destroying the Zay Ti Pyin bridge connecting Ponnagyun to Rathedaung.[43] The Arakan Army stated that it continued assaults on Rathedaung and Buthidaung Townships. The capture of Ponnagyun is significant as it is only 33 kilometres northeast of the regional capital, Sittwe, and allows the Arakan Army to threaten the city.[44] Tatmadaw tactical commander Colonel Myo Min Ko Ko and Major Saw Htwe were killed in Ponnagyung.[45]

On 12 March, after an 85-day battle, the Arakan Army captured the town of Ramree.[46] In Maungdaw Township, AA also captured a border outpost forcing 179 junta soldiers to flee into neighboring Bangladesh.[47] On 17 March, the Arakan Army captured the town of Rathedaung, cutting off Sittwe from northern Rakhine State.[48] The AA claimed that the junta used forcibly conscripted Rohingya people as human shields during its unsuccessful defense of the town.[49][50]

On 15 April, the Arakan Army and the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) clashed in Buthidaung Township, killing 25 Rohingyas. A local reported that the Tatmadaw and ARSA fought together during the clashes.[2] The Arakan Army announced on 18 May that it had taken complete control of Buthidaung, capturing the last junta positions in the area. The Arakan Army said that clashes continued with junta forces and armed Rohingya groups outside the town.[51] Twelve Rohingya civilians were reportedly killed in a junta airstrike on 17 May, and that same day the Arakan Army allegedly bombed a school with drones where Rohingya civilians were sheltering, killing 18 and wounding around 200.[52] Following Buthidaung's fall, large portions of the town and outlying villages were systematically burned to the ground. Witnesses and international organizations accused the Arakan Army of engaging in retaliatory arson against Rohingya people, ordering them out of their homes before burning them to the ground. The Arakan Army denied any involvement with the attack, blaming the fires on junta shelling during the course of the battle.[53][54][55]

On 3 May, the Arakan Army captured the headquarters of the Border Guard Police in Maungdaw Township at Kyee Kan Pyin.[56] The Arakan Army began launching attacks on Maungdaw town on 21 May.[57] The next day, the AA claimed the capture of the No. 2 Border Guard Police Detachment near the entrance to the city.[58]

On 5 August 2024, the Arakan Army attacked Rohingya civilians in Maungdaw Township, Rakhine State killing 221. According to the Rohingya news group, Kaladan Press, the attack was possibly triggered by a large gathering of RSO fighters near the massacre area. Then, AA attacked the area indiscriminately.[59][60]

As of November 2024, the Arakan Army controls most of Maungdaw town, with junta holdouts remaining in the No. 5 Border Guard Police Detachment, the final SAC outpost in the township. On 5 October, it was reported that the junta accidentally killed twenty of its own soldiers in an airstrike that struck the detachment.[61] The Arakan Army also continued to clash with the ARSA and RSO in Maungdaw and Buthidaung townships.[62] On December 8, AA captured BGP 5, removing the junta's control of Maungdaw Township and the Bangladeshi border.[63]

Central and southern Rakhine offensives

[edit]

On 16 February, following clashes with the Arakan Army, junta forces abandoned the town of Ma Ei, destroying a bridge leading to the town as they left. Arakan Army forces occupied the town soon after and began landmine clearance operations.[64][65]

On 24 March, the Arakan Army began an offensive on Ann Township concurrently with their offensive on Sittwe, launching attacks on Ann, the headquarters of the junta's Western Command. North of Ann, the Arakan Army launched attacks on neighbouring Ngape Township in Magway Region. Ann's location is strategically important as the link between Rakhine and Magway via the Minbu-Ann road through the Arakan Mountains and as a gateway preventing AA from attacking southern Rakhine State.[66] On 27 March, Arakan Army forces seized a camp near Ge Laung village, Ann Township.[67] On 2 April, the Arakan Army announced it had captured a portion of the Ann-Minbu Highway, cutting off Ann from neighboring Padein.[68] During these offensives, on 10 April, the Arakan Army rebranded itself as the "Arakha Army" to represent all people living in Rakhine State.[69] On 27 April, the Arakan Army captured Taw Hein Taung base in the hilltops of Ann township.[70] On 26 June, locals reported that the fighting had moved closer to the town proper since the Taw Hein Taung base had fallen, prompting many to try and flee the fighting.[71]

On 13 April, the Arakan Army began clashing with junta forces along the Thandwe-Taungup highway. Intense clashes broke out on 22 April around the Tha Htay hydropower plant in northern Thandwe Township, reportedly leading to the deaths of "dozens" of junta soldiers.[72] On 25 April, the Arakan Army began clashing with junta forces near the Ngapali Beach.[70] On 7 June, clashes broke out between the Arakan Army and junta forces north of Thandwe, with fighting inching steadily closer to the city over the following days.[73] On 26 June, the Arakan Army seized the headquarters of the junta's Battalion 566, forcing military troops to retreat to the town's airport and hotels inside the city. The Arakan Army announced they had secured the airport on 5 July.[74] Militia reinforcements brought by the regime from across Myanmar, as well as shelling from navy ships offshore, were unable to stop the Arakan Army's continued progress in its offensive.[74] The Arakan Army claims to have killed over 400 troops during its push to seize the city.[75] On 15 July, the Arakan Army took control of Thandwe Prison, a major junta strong point. In the following days, it successfully consolidated its control over the town, pushing out remaining junta forces.[76][77] On 7 August, the Arakan Army launched an attack against the Maung Shwe Lay Naval Base outside Thandwe.[78] By 30 August, the Arakan Army had successfully entered the base after clashes through the preceding weeks.[79] The naval base fell to the Arakan Army on 5 September.[78]

On 15 June, the Arakan Army launched an offensive to seize the town of Taungup. Heavy fighting broke out around Taungup University, where a junta artillery battalion is stationed, and clashes were reported in downtown areas as well.[80] Retaliatory junta airstrikes reportedly hit civilian areas.[80] Shelling from junta forces also damaged parts of the university.[81] On 18 June, the town's general administrator, as well as another town official, were arrested by the junta while trying to flee from the fighting to Yangon.[82] On 20 June, the Arakan Army ambushed a column of junta soldiers that had been sent from central Myanmar to reinforce the town, reportedly killing over 60 regime soldiers, including a captain.[83] On 23 June, two civilians were wounded after stepping on a landmine placed by junta forces.[84] Civilians were reportedly attempting to flee Taungup but were being turned back by junta forces.[85]

After a period of relative calm, conflict in Taungup resumed at the end of October, when the Arakan Army attacked a junta artillery position outside the town.[86] Fighting in Taungup continued throughout the next week following the base's fall, with the Arakan Army closing to within 10 km of the town.[87] By 14 November, reports indicated that fighting had moved into the town itself.[88]

On 9 August, the Arakan Army advanced into the state's southernmost township, Gwa Township. Clashes were reported around the Chinkwin Bridge and the town of Kyeintali.[85] On 14 August, the Arakan Army captured the town.[89] Junta forces destroyed a bridge near the town during their retreat.[62] Following their capture of Kyeintali, the Arakan Army pushed further south to the village of Satthwa, where they were halted by junta troops. Retreating junta troops allegedly engaged in looting of local villages as they fled.[90] Reports indicated that junta troops in Gwa had been reinforced by formations drawn from Ayeyarwady Region. According to analysts, there were fears within the junta that Gwa falling to the Arakan Army could let fighting spread into Ayeyarwady, which has been largely conflict-free throughout the war.[91]

Narinjara News reported on 12 August that over the course of the offensive, junta forces had destroyed 22 bridges throughout the state in attempts to impede the Arakan Army's advances.[92]

On 14 December 2024, AA captured Taungup Township.[93]

Battle of Ann

[edit]
Main article: Battle of Ann

Beginning on 26 September, the Arakan Army launched an offensive against military bases around Ann.[94]

By 21 October, the Arakan Army had begun attacking the Western Command headquarters near the town. The group had reportedly completely surrounded the town and occupied Ann's airport.[95][96] On 20 December, the Arakan Army said it had seized the headquarters of the Western Command.[97]

Spillover into Bangladesh

[edit]
Further information: Spillover of the Myanmar civil war (2021-present)

On 3 February 2024, as the clashes between the Arakan Army and Tatmadaw increased in Rakhine, mortar shells and several bullets reportedly landed in Bangladesh territory, which injured some local residents. Repeated bursts of gunfire and explosions were be heard across the Bangladesh–Myanmar border from Ukhia, Cox's Bazar.[98] At least 229 Myanmar Border Guard Police (BGP) personnel entered Bangladesh through the Tumbru border point seeking refuge from AA, where the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) disarmed them and gave them shelter in Bandarban district.[99] On 5 February 2024, a Bangladeshi woman and a Rohingya man died from a mortar shell that fell on the Ghumdum border in Bandarban, reportedly fired by Myanmar.[100]

Ethnic tensions with Rohingya

[edit]

Between 4 February and 6 February, the Arakan Army launched attacks on Rakhine Border Guard Police (BGP) outposts in Maungdaw Township. The Arakan Army later alleged that the Rohingya ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army and Rohingya Solidarity Organisation fought alongside the Rakhine BGP, allegations they gave no evidence towards.[3] On 6 February the Arakan Army and the RSO cooperated on a joint assault against the Arakan Rohingya Army, who had captured a BGP camp along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border.[101] 2 days later, the RSO denounced AA's accusations and the AA labeling them as "Bengalis" among other issues.[102] Some time in March, a Rohingya man was shot in Sittwe. After the Arakan Army was blamed, it was found that the shooting was committed by the Arakan Liberation Army, working as a proxy of the junta to stir ethnic tensions.[1]

In late February, despite the conscription law only applying to citizens, the military junta reportedly began to conscript displaced Rohingyas living in Kyaukphyu. On 6 March, in response to this junta recruitment, the AA urged Rohingya people to flee into AA-controlled areas despite the tense relations between the AA and Rohingya EAOs.[103] In Buthidaung, ARSA was allegedly training Rohingya people for the junta.[1] Nay San Lwin, co-founder of the Free Rohingya Coalition, stated that at least 1,000 people from the Rohingya community being taken by the military from Buthidaung, Sittwe and Kyaukphyu, and dozens have been killed while being used as human shields in Rathedaung Township.[104] On April 15, the Arakan Army clashed with the ARSA in Buthidaung, resulting in 25 Rohingya deaths and 3,000 fleeing.[2] ARSA and ARA reportedly fought with the Tatmadaw, where they burnt down homes and kidnapped civilians.[105]

In September 2024, RSO leadership revealed to Reuters during an interview that they have an informal understanding with the Tatmadaw to only attack AA.[4]

Civilian impact

[edit]
See also: War crimes during the Myanmar civil war (2021–present)

Junta shelling of a crowded market in Sittwe killed 12 people and critically injured 18 on 27 February.[106] According to RFA’s figures, 73 civilians were killed and 103 were injured between March 1 and March 18 for the junta sent airstrikes and artillery fire into communities captured by the rebel ethnic Arakan Army. In Myay Pon, junta airstrikes destroyed homes and schools; while in Mrauk-U, aerial drone attacks on March 15 and March 17 in ethnic Rakhine neighborhoods left three dead and eight injured.[9] The UN chief António Guterres expressed "alarm" about the air attacks and called for calm.[107]

The military accused AA of firing into Sittwe's Kathe neighborhood on 9 March, killing seven civilians.[108] AA reportedly slaughtered several military families attempting to flee Kyauktaw in Rakhine.[109] Five Rohingya were found dead after AA arrested them, but the group denied killing the men and said it was a result of warring drug gangs.[110]

The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) released a report on 7 November warning of a looming famine in Rakhine. The report stated that if action was not taken to stop it, a famine could grip up to 95 percent of the population, predicting that local food production would only cover a fifth of the state's by spring.[111] The UNDP alleged that blockades placed on Rakhine by the SAC to isolate the state were "clearly aimed at... exacting collective punishment on an already vulnerable population." The report also detailed possible side effects of such a catastrophe, detailing the possibility of increases in human trafficking, labor shortages, and large migration away from the region. Rakhine's essential services, like healthcare, education, and clean water, are already in strife, with large segments of the population unable to access them.[112]

The United League of Arakan, the Arakan Army's political wing, released a report on 18 November which said 735 civilians, including 132 children, had been killed over the course of the conflict in 2024. The highest number of civilian deaths occurred in Sittwe, Buthidaung, and Maungdaw townships. The report also put the number of civilians detained by the junta and its allies at 749, alleging junta efforts to block civilians from fleeing conflict zones. The report stated that over 550,000 people had been displaced and 6,400 homes had destroyed.[7]

Information warfare

[edit]

A social media post in March 2024 showed the Rohingya protesting against the AA. Aung Kyaw Moe, a cabinet member of NUG, wrote in an X post that junta "is using the Rohingya as a proxy to protest against AA in Buthidang is not definitely organic."[104] After multiple protests staged by Rohingya against the AA, some protest participants said this were forced by the junta and residents who didn't participate would be fined.[113]

Spokesman for the UN Stéphane Dujarric said their local team sees the spreading of misinformation, disinformation and hate speech in northern Rakhine State.[114]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Townships: Kyauktaw Township, Minbya Township, Mrauk-U Township, Myebon Township, Pauktaw Township, Ponnagyun Township, Ramree Township, Rathedaung Township
    Towns: Kyauktaw, Minbya, Mrauk-U, Myebon, Paletwa (Chin State), Pauktaw, Ponnagyun, Ramree, Rathedaung, Buthidaung

References

[edit]
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