Opinion polling for the 2011 New Zealand general election
Opinion polling has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 49th New Zealand Parliament and in the leadup to the 2011 election by various organisations. The main four are Television New Zealand, TV3, The New Zealand Herald and Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.
Party vote and key events
[edit]Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.
Graphical summary
[edit]The first graph below shows trend lines averaged across all polls for parties that have consistently polled on average above the 5.0% threshold. The second graph shows the parties polling over 1% which do not consistently poll above the 5.0% threshold.
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/77/NZ_opinion_polls_2009-2011_-parties.png)
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4e/NZ_opinion_polls_2009-2011_-smallparties.png)
Individual polls
[edit]Poll | Date[nb 1] | National | Labour | Green | ACT | Māori | Prog | United Future |
NZ First | Mana | Con |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2008 election result | 8 Nov 2008 | 44.93 | 33.99 | 6.72 | 3.65 | 2.39 | 0.91 | 0.87 | 4.07 | N/A [nb 2] | |
11 Nov 2008 – Phil Goff replaces Helen Clark as leader of Labour Party. 19 Nov 2008 – National Party leader John Key is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand. | |||||||||||
Roy Morgan Research[1] | 17–30 Nov 2008 | 44.0 | 32.5 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 3.5 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[2] | 1–14 Dec 2008 | 47.0 | 31.5 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[3] | 2–18 Jan 2009 | 48.0 | 33.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[4] | 19 Jan – 1 Feb 2009 | 48.0 | 31.0 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[5] | 2–15 Feb 2009 | 48.5 | 32 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 1.5 | ||
One News Colmar Brunton[6] | 14–19 Feb 2009 | 57.0 | 31.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | ||||
3 News Reid Research[7] | 18 Feb 2009 | 60.0 | 27.0 | 7.0 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 1.6 | |||
Roy Morgan Research[5] | 16 Feb – 1 Mar 2009 | 56 | 26 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | <0.5 | 2.5 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[5] | 2–15 Mar 2009 | 54.5 | 29 | 8 | 2.5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2 | ||
One News Colmar Brunton[6] | 28 Mar – 1 Apr 2009 | 56.0 | 28.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | ||||
Roy Morgan Research[5] | 23 Mar – 5 Apr 2009 | 50.5 | 28 | 9.5 | 4 | 3.5 | 1 | <0.5 | 2.5 | ||
One News Colmar Brunton[8] | 5 Apr 2009 | 57.0 | 31.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |||||
Roy Morgan Research[5] | 6–19 Apr 2009 | 50 | 32.5 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | <0.5 | 2 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[5] | 20 Apr – 3 May 2009 | 55 | 30.5 | 7 | 2 | 2 | <0.5 | 0.5 | 2 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[9] | 4–17 May 2009 | 52.0 | 31.5 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[9] | 18–31 May 2009 | 52.0 | 31.0 | 8.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1. | ||
28 May 2009 – 2009 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament. 30 May 2009 – Metiria Turei replaces Jeanette Fitzsimons as female co-leader of the Green Party. 13 Jun 2009 – Mount Albert by-election: David Shearer retains the seat for Labour. | |||||||||||
Roy Morgan Research[9] | 1–14 Jun 2009 | 52.0 | 33.0 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[5] | 22 Jun – 5 Jul 2009 | 54 | 31.5 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[5] | 6–19 Jul 2009 | 52 | 30 | 10 | 1 | 3.5 | 0.5 | <0.5 | 2 | ||
One News Colmar Brunton[6] | 25–29 Jul 2009 | 56 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 3.1 | |||||
Roy Morgan Research[5] | 20 Jul – 2 Aug 2009 | 53.5 | 34 | 7 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | <0.5 | 1 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[5] | 3–16 Aug 2009 | 53.5 | 32.5 | 8.5 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | <0.5 | 2 | ||
21 Aug 2009 – The citizens-initiated corporal punishment referendum is held, with voters responding 87.4% "No" to the question "Should a smack as part of good parental correction be a criminal offence in New Zealand?" | |||||||||||
Roy Morgan Research[5] | 17–30 Aug 2009 | 56.5 | 29.5 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[10] | 31 Aug – 13 Sep 2009 | 51.5 | 33 | 7.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | ||
One News Colmar Brunton[11] | 19–24 Sep 2009 | 54 | 33 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||||
Roy Morgan Research[5] | 21 Sep – 4 Oct 2009 | 57.5 | 28 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1 | <0.5 | 2 | ||
3 News Reid Research[12] | 18 Oct 2009 | 59.9 | 27.2 | 6.9 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | ||||
Roy Morgan Research[5] | 5–18 Oct 2009 | 53 | 30 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[5] | 19 Oct – 1 Nov 2009 | 55.5 | 29 | 7.5 | 1 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[5] | 2–15 Nov 2009 | 51.5 | 33 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 1 | <0.5 | 2.5 | ||
One News Colmar Brunton[13][14] | 21–25 Nov 2009 | 53 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | ||||
Roy Morgan Research[5] | 16–29 Nov 2009 | 53.5 | 30.5 | 7 | 1.5 | 3.5 | <0.5 | <0.5 | 2.5 | ||
26 Nov 2009 – Labour leader Phil Goff makes race-related "nationhood" speech. | |||||||||||
3 News Reid Research[15] | 13 Dec 2009 | 55.2 | 30.8 | 7.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 1.5 | |||
Roy Morgan Research[5] | 30 Nov – 13 Dec 2009 | 54 | 27.5 | 9.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | <0.5 | 4 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[5] | 4–17 Jan 2010 | 53 | 30 | 8 | 2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[5] | 18–31 Jan 2010 | 52 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3.5 | ||
Herald-DigiPoll[16] | 29 Jan – 10 Feb 2010 | 56 | 34 | 4.6 | <1 | 2.8 | <1 | <1 | 1.7 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[5] | 1–14 Feb 2010 | 52 | 33 | 8 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | <0.5 | 2 | ||
3 News Reid Research[17] | 16 Feb 2010 | 56.3 | 29.6 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | ||
One News Colmar Brunton[18] | 14–17 Feb 2010 | 54 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||||
Roy Morgan Research[5] | 15–28 Feb 2010 | 53.5 | 31.5 | 8 | 1.5 | 2.5 | <0.5 | 0.5 | 2 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[5] | 1–14 Mar 2010 | 51.5 | 33.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 2 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[19][20] | 22 Mar – 4 Apr 2010 | 49 | 33 | 7.5 | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 1 | 3 | ||
One News Colmar Brunton[21] | 10–14 Apr 2010 | 54 | 33 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |||||
3 News Reid Research[22] | 25 Apr 2010 | 52.1 | 33.8 | 8.2 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 1.5 | |||
Roy Morgan Research[5] | 5–18 Apr 2010 | 49.5 | 34 | 7.5 | 1 | 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[23] | 3–16 May 2010 | 48.5 | 33.5 | 9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3 | ||
20 May 2010 – 2010 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament. | |||||||||||
Roy Morgan Research[23] | 17–30 May 2010 | 52.5 | 30 | 9.5 | 1 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | ||
One News Colmar Brunton[24][25] | 30 May 2010 | 49.0 | 33.0 | 7.0 | 1.6 | 3.6 | |||||
Roy Morgan Research[23] | 31 May – 13 Jun 2010 | 50.5 | 33 | 9.5 | 1 | 3 | <0.5 | 1 | 1.5 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[23] | 21 Jun – 4 Jul 2010 | 53 | 29 | 8.5 | 2 | 3 | <0.5 | 0.5 | 3 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[26] | 5–18 Jul 2010 | 49 | 31.5 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 4.5 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[26] | 19 Jul – 1 Aug 2010 | 51 | 33.5 | 6.5 | 2 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2 | ||
One News Colmar Brunton[27][28] | 8 Aug 2010 | 49.0 | 35.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.3 | ||||
3 News Reid Research[28][29] | 8 Aug 2010 | 54.5 | 30.6 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 1.5 | |||
Roy Morgan Research[30] | 2–15 Aug 2010 | 50 | 33.5 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 0.5 | 3.5 | |||
17 Aug 2010 – Chris Carter is removed from the Labour caucus and becomes an independent MP. Labour is reduced to 42 seats but the Opposition remains at 53 seats. | |||||||||||
Roy Morgan Research[30] | 16–29 Aug 2010 | 49.5 | 32.5 | 8.5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3.5 | |||
4 Sep 2010 – A 7.1-magnitude earthquake strikes Canterbury. | |||||||||||
Roy Morgan Research[30] | 30 Aug – 12 Sep 2010 | 48.5 | 34 | 8 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 4.5 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[30] | 20 Sep – 3 Oct 2010 | 49.5 | 36.5 | 8 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | ||||
One News Colmar Brunton[31] | 26 Sep 2010 | 54 | 32 | 8 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | ||||
Roy Morgan Research[32] | 4–17 Oct 2010 | 52.5 | 33 | 8.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | |||
3 News Reid Research[33] | 11 Oct 2010 | 53.8 | 32.6 | 7.6 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 1.2 | |||
Roy Morgan Research[34] | 18–31 Oct 2010 | 50.5 | 33 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[34] | 1–14 Nov 2010 | 50 | 32.5 | 9 | 1 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 3 | |||
20 Nov 2010 – Mana by-election: Kris Faafoi retains the seat for Labour, but with a significantly reduced majority. | |||||||||||
Roy Morgan Research[34] | 15–28 Nov 2010 | 51 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[34] | 29 Nov – 12 Dec 2010 | 48.5 | 35 | 7 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 3 | ||
3 News Reid Research[35] | 13 Dec 2010 | 55.5 | 31.2 | 7.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 1.9 | |||
One News Colmar Brunton[36] | 19 Dec 2010 | 55 | 33 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 3.1 | ||||
Herald-DigiPoll[37] | 30 Dec 2010 | 52.4 | 37.2 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.5 | ||||
Roy Morgan Research[38] | 4–16 Jan 2011 | 55 | 29 | 7 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 4.5 | |||
26 Jan 2011 – John Key announces policy of partial privatisation of some state-owned assets. | |||||||||||
Roy Morgan Research[39] | 17–30 Jan 2011 | 49 | 34.5 | 6.5 | 1 | 3 | 5.5 | ||||
2 February 2011 – John Key announces the election will be held on 26 November 2011. | |||||||||||
Roy Morgan Research[39] | 31 Jan – 13 Feb 2011 | 52.5 | 33.5 | 8.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | |||
One News Colmar Brunton[40] | 20 Feb 2011 | 51 | 33 | 8 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | ||||
3 News Reid Research[41] | 20 Feb 2011 | 54.6 | 30.9 | 8.2 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 3.3 | ||||
Roy Morgan Research[42] | 14–27 Feb 2011 | 49 | 35 | 8 | 1.5 | 3 | 3 | ||||
22 Feb 2011 – A 6.3-magnitude earthquake strikes Canterbury, with 181 casualties. 23 Feb 2011 – Hone Harawira defects from Maori Party to become an independent MP, and later forming the Mana Party. Government majority reduced from 16 to 14 seats; Maori Party reduced to four seats. 5 Mar 2011 – Botany by-election: Jami-Lee Ross retains the seat for National, but with a reduced majority. | |||||||||||
Roy Morgan Research[42] | 28 Feb – 13 Mar 2011 | 52.5 | 32.5 | 8 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 4 | |||
Roy Morgan Research[42] | 21 Mar – 3 Apr 2011 | 51 | 31.5 | 8 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 5 | |||
One News Colmar Brunton[43] | 10 Apr 2011 | 54 | 34 | 6 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2.7 | ||||
3 News Reid Research[44] | 17 Apr 2011 | 57.5 | 27.1 | 7.7 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 2.8 | |||
Roy Morgan Research[45] | 4–17 Apr 2011 | 51 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3 | ||
30 Apr 2011 – Don Brash replaces Rodney Hide as leader of the ACT Party. | |||||||||||
Roy Morgan Research[45] | 18 Apr – 1 May 2011 | 52.5 | 31 | 7.5 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 4.5 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[45] | 2–15 May 2011 | 53 | 28 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3 | ||
19 May 2011 – 2011 New Zealand budget is presented to Parliament. | |||||||||||
Herald-DigiPoll[46] | 19–25 May 2011 | 54.4 | 33.7 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 2.7 | ||
One News Colmar Brunton[47] | 29 May 2011 | 52 | 34 | 6 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | |||
3 News Reid Research[48] | 29 May 2011 | 53.0 | 32.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[49] | 16–29 May 2011 | 49 | 36 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | |||
Roy Morgan Research[50] | 30 May – 12 Jun 2011 | 53 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0.5 | 2.5 | |||
Roy Morgan Research[50] | 13–26 Jun 2011 | 54 | 30.5 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 3 | 0.5 | 3.5 | |||
25 Jun 2011 – Te Tai Tokerau by-election: Hone Harawira is re-elected under the Mana Party. | |||||||||||
Herald-DigiPoll[51] | 27 Jun 2011 | 51.2 | 36.1 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | |||
Roy Morgan Research[52] | 27 Jun – 10 Jul 2011 | 49 | 33.5 | 7.5 | 3 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 3 | |||
3 News Reid Research[53] | 10 Jul 2011 | 55.1 | 29.9 | 9.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | ||
14 Jul 2011 – Labour releases their proposed tax package, including the introduction of a capital gains tax.[54] | |||||||||||
One News Colmar Brunton[55] | 17 Jul 2011 | 53 | 27 | 10 | 3.1 | 3 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 | ||
Roy Morgan Research[56] | 11–24 Jul 2011 | 52 | 31.5 | 7.5 | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | ||
Fairfax Media–Research International [57][58] | 21–25 Jul 2011 | 56 | 29 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 0.2 | ||
Herald-DigiPoll[59] | 30 Jul 2011 | 52.3 | 33.1 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | |||
Roy Morgan Research [60] | 25 Jul – 7 Aug 2011 | 51.5 | 32 | 7 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 4 | 0.5 | ||
One News Colmar Brunton[61] | 21 Aug 2011 | 56 | 30 | 6 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | ||
3 News Reid Research[62] | 21 Aug 2011 | 54.0 | 28.8 | 9.3 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | ||
Herald-DigiPoll[63] | 19–26 Aug 2011 | 52 | 31.5 | 9.8 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 0.2 | ||
Roy Morgan Research [64] | 15 – 28 Aug 2011 | 52 | 29.5 | 9 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 1 | ||
Fairfax Media–Research International[58] | 25–29 Aug 2011 | 57.1 | 25.7 | 11.0 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | ||
Roy Morgan Research [65] | 29 Aug – 11 Sep 2011 | 57 | 26 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 1 | ||
9 September 2011 – The 2011 Rugby World Cup opens in Auckland, with unexpected overcrowding of the Auckland Waterfront fan zone and transport delays resulting in some people missing the opening ceremony and game.[66] 13 September 2011 – The Government takes control of the Auckland Waterfront fan zone from Auckland Council.[66] | |||||||||||
Roy Morgan Research [67] | 12 – 25 Sep 2011 | 51 | 30.5 | 11.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.5 | ||
30 Sep 2011 – Credit agencies Fitch and Standard & Poor's both downgrade New Zealand's long-term credit rating from AA+ to AA.[68] | |||||||||||
Fairfax Media–Research International[69] | 28 Sep 2011 | 54 | 28 | 10 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 0.2 | ||
One News Colmar Brunton[70] | 2 Oct 2011 | 56 | 29 | 9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | ||
3 News Reid Research[71] | 2 Oct 2011 | 57.4 | 26.6 | 9.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 0. | ||
Roy Morgan Research [72] | 26 Sep – 9 Oct 2011 | 55.5 | 28 | 9.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 0.5 | 2 | 0.5 | ||
5 Oct 2011 – MV Rena runs aground on the Astrolabe Reef causing an oil spill in Tauranga, described as New Zealand's worst environmental disaster. | |||||||||||
Roy Morgan Research [73] | 10–23 Oct 2011 | 53.5 | 29.5 | 9.5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2.5 | 0.5 | ||
26 Oct 2011 – Writ Day: The writ of election is issued by the Chief Justice on behalf of the Governor General, instructing the Electoral Commission to conduct the election.[74] Electoral roll closes for printing with 3.01 million eligible voters.[note a][75] Main campaigning season begins. | |||||||||||
Herald-DigiPoll [76] | 20–27 Oct 2011 | 53.5 | 30.3 | 9.5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 0.1 | ||
3 News Reid Research[77] | 30 Oct 2011 | 52.3 | 30.2 | 9.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | ||
Fairfax Media–Research International[78] | 27–31 Oct 2011 | 52.6 | 31.3 | 9.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | |
Herald-DigiPoll [79] | 28 Oct – 2 Nov 2011 | 54.2 | 29.1 | 10.1 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 1.1 | |
One News Colmar Brunton[80] | 3 Nov 2011 | 56 | 30 | 9 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 0.3 | ||
Roy Morgan Research [81] | 24 Oct – 6 Nov 2011 | 53 | 26 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4.5 | 1.0 | ||
Fairfax Media–Research International[82] | 3–7 Nov 2011 | 52.5 | 25.9 | 12.6 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | |
Herald-DigiPoll [83] | 3–9 Nov 2011 | 49.5 | 28.7 | 12.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 1 | |
One News Colmar Brunton[84] | 10 Nov 2011 | 54 | 28 | 9 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.5 | |
3 News Reid Research[85] | 13 Nov 2011 | 53.3 | 29.9 | 10.2 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | ||
11 Nov 2011 – A potentially damaging conversation between John Key and political ally John Banks is recorded without their knowledge. | |||||||||||
Herald-DigiPoll [86] | 10–16 Nov 2011 | 49.9 | 29.1 | 12.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 4.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | |
One News Colmar Brunton[87] | 17 Nov 2011 | 51 | 26 | 13 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | |
3 News Reid Research[88] | 17 Nov 2011 | 50.2 | 27.4 | 13.0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | |
Roy Morgan Research [89] | 7 – 18 Nov 2011 | 53 | 24.5 | 13 | 1.5 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1.0 | ||
Fairfax Media–Research International[90] | 17 – 21 Nov 2011 | 54.0 | 26.0 | 12.0 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 4.0 | 1.1 | |
Herald-DigiPoll [91] | 17 – 23 Nov 2011 | 50.9 | 28.0 | 11.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 5.2 | 0.3 | 1.3 | |
One News Colmar Brunton[92] | 24 Nov 2011 | 50 | 28 | 10 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 2.4 | |
3 News Reid Research[93] | 24 Nov 2011 | 50.8 | 26.0 | 13.4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 1.8 | |
Roy Morgan Research [94][note b] | 22 – 24 Nov 2011 | 49.5 | 23.5 | 14.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 0.5 | 6.5 | 0.5 | ||
26 Nov 2011 – Election Day: A total of 3,049,212 voters were registered to vote in the election.[95] A total of 2,257,336 votes were cast, including the 188,730 advance votes, with a turnout of 73.5%.[96][97] | |||||||||||
2011 election result[97] | 26 Nov 2011 | 47.31 | 27.48 | 11.06 | 1.07 | 1.43 | –[note c] | 0.60 | 6.59 | 1.08 | 2.65 |
Poll | Date[nb 1] | National | Labour | Green | ACT | Māori | Prog | United Future |
NZ First | Mana | Con |
- ^[note a] Voters enrolling after this date could still vote in the general election, but were not included on the printed roll and had to cast special declaration votes.
- ^[note b] The two graphs near the top of the page include data up to and including this poll.
- ^[note c] The Progressive Party did not contest the 2011 election.
Preferred Prime Minister
[edit]Individual polls
[edit]Poll | Date[nb 1] | John Key |
Helen Clark |
Phil Goff |
Winston Peters | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Colmar Brunton[6] | 14–19 Feb 2009 | 51 | 6 | 2 | |||||||
Colmar Brunton[6] | 28 Mar – 1 Apr 2009 | 51 | 6 | 1 | |||||||
TV ONE Colmar Brunton[8] | 5 Apr 2009 | 51 | 9 | 6 | |||||||
Colmar Brunton[6] | 25–29 Jul 2009 | 54 | 7 | 2 | |||||||
3 News-Reid Research[12] | 18 Oct 2009 | 51.6 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 3.0 | ||||||
ONE News Colmar Brunton[13][14] | 21–25 Nov 2009 | 54 | 5 | 2 | |||||||
26 Nov 2009 – Labour leader Phil Goff makes race-related "nationhood" speech. | |||||||||||
3 News-Reid Research[15] | 13 Dec 2009 | 49.9 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 2.1 | ||||||
Herald Digipoll[16] | 29 Jan – 10 Feb 2010 | 58 | 7 | 6.8 | |||||||
ONE News Colmar Brunton[21] | 10–14 Apr 2010 | 48 | 8 | ||||||||
ONE News Colmar Brunton[24] | May 2010 | 46 | 6 | ||||||||
ONE News Colmar Brunton[27][28] | 8 Aug 2010 | 45 | 9 | ||||||||
3 News-Reid Research[28][29][98] | 8 Aug 2010 | 48.7 | 2.3 | 7.4 | 3.7 | ||||||
ONE News Colmar Brunton[31] | 26 Sep 2010 | 52 | 8 | ||||||||
One News-Colmar Brunton[36] | 19 Dec 2010 | 49.1 | 6.8 | 4.9 | |||||||
3 News-Reid Research[41] | 20 Feb 2011 | 49.1 | 6.8 | 4.9 | |||||||
ONE News Colmar Brunton[40] | 20 Feb 2011 | 48 | 2 | 7 | 3 | ||||||
One News-Colmar Brunton[43] | 10 Apr 2011 | 55 | 11 | 3 | |||||||
3 News-Reid Research[44] | 17 Apr 2011 | 52.4 | 6.8 | ||||||||
Herald Digipoll[46] | 27 May 2011 | 67.7 | 11.9 | ||||||||
One News-Colmar Brunton[47] | 29 May 2011 | 53 | 8 | ||||||||
3 News-Reid Research[48] | 29 May 2011 | 48.2 | 7.6 | ||||||||
One News-Colmar Brunton[55] | 17 Jul 2011 | 54 | 9 | ||||||||
Herald Digipoll[59] | 30 Jul 2011 | 70.3 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 2.9 | ||||||
One News-Colmar Brunton[61] | 21 Aug 2011 | 57 | 8 | ||||||||
Herald Digipoll[76] | 29 Oct 2011 | 70.6 | 13.7 | 3.5 | |||||||
One News-Colmar Brunton[80] | 3 Nov 2011 | 56 | 12 | ||||||||
Fairfax Media-Research International[90] | 17–21 Nov 2011 | 51.5 | 12.5 | 3.5 | |||||||
Poll | Date[nb 1] | John Key |
Helen Clark |
Phil Goff |
Winston Peters | ||||||
Other polls
[edit]Epsom electorate vote
[edit]Poll | Date[nb 1] | John Banks |
Paul Goldsmith |
David Parker |
David Hay |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2008 election result | 8 November 2008 | 56.1[a] | 21.8[a] | 13.6[a] | 7.4[a] |
New Zealand Herald-Key Research[99] | 9 October 2011 | 18.9 | 32.9 | 4.3 | 1 |
Fairfax Media Research International[100] | 17 November 2011 | 29.1 | 45.5 | 14.6 | 7.7 |
One News Colmar Brunton[101] | 14–17 November 2011 | 30 | 41 | 17 | 11 |
2011 general election, final result | 26 November 2011 | 44.10 | 37.80 | 10.45 | 6.01 |
^[a] The candidates in the 2008 general election were Rodney Hide, Richard Worth, Kate Sutton, and Keith Locke respectively.
Voting method referendum
[edit]Concern over validity
[edit]A new polling company, Horizon, has challenged some of the existing polls' validity as they exclude undecided voters and those who chose not to vote.[102] Horizon claim that this may be up to 30% in some polls.[102] However, Horizon's own polling methods have been criticised for their use of a self-selected internet panel.[103] At the 2008 election only the Green Party gained a proportion of the party vote outside (below) what poll trends would suggest.
See also
[edit]- Opinion polling for the 2008 New Zealand general election
- Opinion polling for the 2014 New Zealand general election
- Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election
- Politics of New Zealand
Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "John Key elected as new Prime Minister and record number of New Zealanders say New Zealand is 'Heading in the right direction'". Roy Morgan Research. 30 November 2008. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
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- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w "National-led Government (55%, unchanged) Retain big lead over Opposition Parties (45%, unchanged)". Roy Morgan Research. 27 April 2010. Retrieved 9 May 2010.
- ^ a b c d e f TVNZ Teletext, p.497 Retrieved 3 August 2009.
- ^ "National's honeymoon continues, according to poll" (video). TV3. 18 February 2009. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
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- ^ a b TVNZ Teletext. Retrieved 2 December 2009
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- ^ a b c d "National-led Government (58.5%, up 3%) further ahead of Opposition Parties (41.5%); National up 2.5% to 53%, Labour down 4% to 29%". Roy Morgan Research. 9 July 2010. Archived from the original on 12 July 2010. Retrieved 16 July 2010.
- ^ a b New Zealand Press Association (30 May 2010). "Support for National dips – poll". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 30 May 2010.
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- ^ a b "Labour still struggling, but signs of life – poll – 3news.co.nz". 8 August 2010. Retrieved 8 August 2010.
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- ^ a b ONE News (26 September 2010). "Surge in popularity for National – poll". Retrieved 30 September 2010.
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- ^ a b OneNews (19 December 2010). "National streets ahead in final One News poll for 2010". Retrieved 19 December 2010.
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- ^ a b c "Roy Morgan Research Poll – 8 April 2011". 8 April 2011. Retrieved 11 April 2011.
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- ^ a b Bennett, Adam (17 April 2011). "National climbs closer to record high in latest poll". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 18 April 2011.
- ^ a b c "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT INCREASES LEAD". 23 May 2011. Retrieved 26 May 2011.
- ^ a b Young, Audrey (27 May 2011). "Goff well down in PM stakes but rating okay as Labour's leader". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 28 May 2011.
- ^ a b "National still sitting pretty after zero Budget – Colmar Poll". Television New Zealand. 29 May 2011. Retrieved 30 May 2011.
- ^ a b "National slips a little in poll, but still going strong". 3 News. 29 May 2011. Retrieved 31 May 2011.
- ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT LEAD DIPS SHARPLY BUT WOULD STILL WIN". 9 June 2011. Retrieved 9 June 2011.
- ^ a b "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT MAINTAINS LEAD AND WOULD WIN EASILY – 60% cf. 40%". 30 June 2011. Retrieved 1 July 2011.
- ^ Young, Audrey (1 July 2011). "Poll: Labour gains, but Nats would still govern alone". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 1 July 2011.
- ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT LEAD DOWN BUT WOULD WIN EASILY – 55% cf. 45%". 19 July 2011. Retrieved 20 July 2011.
- ^ "Greens on the up, National in front – poll". 3 News. 10 July 2011. Retrieved 17 July 2011.
- ^ Bennett, Adam (14 July 2011). "Poll: Labour unveils 'bold' tax plan". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 15 July 2011.
- ^ a b "Labour support plummets in latest poll". Television New Zealand. 17 July 2011. Retrieved 17 July 2011.
- ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT GAINS AND HAS WINNING LEAD 57.5% cf. 42.5%". 28 July 2011. Retrieved 5 August 2011.
- ^ Watkins, Tracy (27 July 2011). "Labour 'not fazed' by dismal poll result". stuff.co.nz. Retrieved 31 August 2011.
- ^ a b Watkins, Tracy; Vance, Andrea (31 August 2011). "Greens shoot up in poll". Stuff (company). Retrieved 31 August 2011.
- ^ a b Young, Audrey (30 July 2011). "Voters prefer Labour policy but not party: Poll". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 30 July 2011.
- ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVT. DOWN BUT HAS WINNING LEAD: 55.5% cf. 44.5%". Roy Morgan Research. 11 August 2011. Retrieved 14 August 2011.
- ^ a b "Key and National hit new highs in poll". Television New Zealand. 21 August 2011. Retrieved 21 August 2011.
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- ^ Trevett, Claire (30 August 2011). "Pre-election gloom for Labour after poll tumble". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 30 August 2011.
- ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT'S WINNING LEAD IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED – 56% cf. 44%". Roy Morgan Research. 1 September 2011. Retrieved 3 September 2011.
- ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT'S WINNING LEAD SURGES 61.5% (UP 5.5%) cf. 38.5% (DOWN 5.5%). BIGGEST LEAD SINCE OCTOBER 2009". Roy Morgan Research. 16 September 2011. Retrieved 18 September 2011.
- ^ a b Donnell, Hayden (13 September 2011). "Waterfront move an 'overreaction'". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 14 September 2011.
- ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT'S WINNING LEAD DIPS: NATIONAL 55.5% (DOWN 6%) cf. LABOUR 44.5% (UP 6%)". Roy Morgan Research. 30 September 2011. Retrieved 3 October 2011.
- ^ "New Zealand's credit rating downgraded – stuff.co.nz". The Dominion Post. 30 September 2011. Retrieved 7 October 2011.
- ^ Vance, Andrea (28 September 2011). "Asset sales, Christchurch rebuild on voters' minds". Stuff (company). Retrieved 30 September 2011.
- ^ "More poll woe for Labour and Goff". Television New Zealand. 2 October 2011. Retrieved 2 October 2011.
- ^ "Latest 3 News poll shows Nat's support doubled". 3 News. 2 October 2011. Retrieved 2 October 2011.
- ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT'S WINNING LEAD INCREASES 59.5% (UP 4%) CF. LABOUR 40.5% (DOWN 4%)". Roy Morgan Research. 18 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2011.
- ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT'S WINNING LEAD DECREASES – 57.5% (DOWN 2%) CF. OPPOSITION PARTIES 42.5% (UP 2%)". Roy Morgan Research. 31 October 2011. Retrieved 31 October 2011.
- ^ "Chief Justice steps in for Writ Day". Newstalk ZB. 26 October 2011. Retrieved 26 October 2011.
- ^ "Electoral statistics for the whole of New Zealand". Electoral Commission. 28 October 2011. Retrieved 31 October 2011.
- ^ a b Young, Audrey (29 October 2011). "National gains, Labour loses, but Goff's edging up". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 29 October 2011.
- ^ "Gap closes between Key and Goff in poll". 3 News. 30 October 2011. Retrieved 31 October 2011.
- ^ Watkins, Tracy (2 November 2011). "Labour gains ground in latest poll – stuff.co.nz". Retrieved 2 November 2011.
- ^ Young, Audrey (3 November 2011). "Labour slips further in latest poll". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 3 November 2011.
- ^ a b "National could easily govern alone, poll shows". Television New Zealand. 3 November 2011. Retrieved 3 November 2011.
- ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT'S WINNING LEAD DIPS AGAIN". Roy Morgan Research. 11 November 2011. Retrieved 11 November 2011.
- ^ Watkins, Tracy; Migone, Paloma (9 November 2011). "National heading for outright win". Retrieved 9 November 2011.
- ^ Young, Audrey (11 November 2011). "Poll shock as Nats drop under 50%". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 11 November 2011.
- ^ "Drop in support for National and Labour – poll". Television New Zealand. 10 November 2011. Retrieved 10 November 2011.
- ^ "National to govern alone if poll holds for election night". 3 News. 13 November 2011. Retrieved 13 November 2011.
- ^ Young, Audrey (18 November 2011). "Poll shock: Winston within a whisker". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 18 November 2011.
- ^ "Labour hits ten year low in latest poll". Television New Zealand. 17 November 2011. Retrieved 17 November 2011.
- ^ "NZ First climb polls on back of teapot tapes". 3 News. 17 November 2011. Retrieved 17 November 2011.
- ^ "NATIONAL SET FOR NEW ZEALAND ELECTION VICTORY NEXT SATURDAY". Roy Morgan Research. 19 November 2011. Retrieved 19 November 2011.
- ^ a b Watkins, Tracy (23 November 2011). "National still cosy in polls after tea break". Stuff (company). Retrieved 24 November 2011.
- ^ Young, Audrey (25 November 2011). "Final poll: Nats win looks certain, Winston over 5%". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 25 November 2011.
- ^ "Gap closes as election looms – poll". Television New Zealand. 24 November 2011. Retrieved 24 November 2011.
- ^ Garner, Duncan (24 November 2011). "Poll shows undecided voters figure leaps up". 3 News. Retrieved 24 November 2011.
- ^ "NATIONAL SET FOR ELECTION VICTORY, BUT NO MAJORITY AS 'TEAPOT TAPE' SCANDAL DENTS NATIONAL & BENEFITS NZ FIRST". Roy Morgan Research. 25 November 2011. Retrieved 25 November 2011.
- ^ "Enrolment statistics for the whole of New Zealand". Electoral Commission. 24 November 2011. Retrieved 25 November 2011.
- ^ "Thousands get their votes in early". 3 News. 24 November 2011. Retrieved 24 November 2011.
- ^ a b "Election Results – Overall Status". Electoral Commission. 10 December 2011. Archived from the original on 21 August 2006. Retrieved 10 December 2011.
- ^ Labour still struggling, but signs of life – poll. 3 News. 8 August 2010. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
- ^ Fisher, David (9 October 2011). "Epsom poll has Banks sidelined". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 19 November 2011.
- ^ Vance, Andrea (17 November 2011). "ACT polls at wipeout low in Epsom". Fairfax Media (via Stuff.co.nz). Retrieved 19 November 2011.
- ^ "'Cup of tea' meeting fails to sway voters to Act – poll". Television New Zealand. 18 November 2011. Retrieved 19 November 2011.
- ^ a b "Political poll results may exclude 30%?", Horizonpoll.co.nz, 28 May 2011. Retrieved 11 August 2011.
- ^ "For whom the belle polls", Andrew Balemi, 3 November 2011. Retrieved 17 November 2011.