The 2024 United States presidential election in Kansas took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Kansas voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Kansas has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
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A sparsely populated Great Plains state that has not voted Democrat for president since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Kansas was considered by nearly all major news organizations to be safely Republican at the presidential level.
Kansas was won by the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, with a margin of 16.1%, a slight improvement from 4 years prior.
Primary elections
editRepublican primary
editThe Kansas Republican Primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 72,115 | 75.52% | 39 | 39 | |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 15,339 | 16.06% | |||
| None of the Names Shown | 4,982 | 5.22% | |||
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 2,543 | 2.66% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 508 | 0.53% | |||
| Total: | 95,487 | 100.00% | 39 | 39 | |
Democratic primary
editThe Kansas Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Illinois, and Ohio.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 35,906 | 83.7% | 33 | 33 | |
| None of the Names Shown | 4,433 | 10.3% | |||
| Marianne Williamson | 1,494 | 3.5% | |||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 566 | 1.3% | |||
| Jason Palmer | 516 | 1.2% | |||
| Total: | 42,915 | 100.0% | 33 | 6 | 39 |
Green primary
editThe Kansas Green primary was held from January 22, 2024, to February 5, 2024. It was a held digitally under a ranked-choice voting system. Jill Stein won with 100% of the vote, being ranked first by all 7 voting party members. Stein automatically received Kansas's 4 delegates to the 2024 Green National Convention.[5]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Delegate count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jill Stein | 7 | 100% | 4 |
| Total: | 7 | 100% | 4 |
| Source:[5] | |||
General election
editPredictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[6] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[7] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[9] | Safe R | May 31, 2024 |
| CNalysis[10] | Very Likely R | November 4, 2024 |
| CNN[11] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[12] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[13] | Solid R | October 3, 2024 |
| NBC News[14] | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
editDonald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Hays State University[15] | September 26 – October 16, 2024 | 656 (A) | – | 46% | 37% | 17%[b] |
| 608 (A) | 50% | 39% | 11%[c] | |||
| 517 (RV) | 48% | 43% | 9%[d] |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[16][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 385 (LV) | – | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Emerson College[17] | October 1–4, 2023 | 487 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 31% | 22% |
| Emerson College[18] | October 27–29, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 37% | 13% |
| Emerson College[19] | September 15–18, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 36% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights[20][B] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 392 (LV) | ± 7.5% | 52% | 41% | 7% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[16][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 385 (LV) | – | 44% | 42% | 14% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[16][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 385 (LV) | – | 53% | 36% | 11% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights[20][B] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 392 (LV) | ± 7.5% | 50% | 39% | 11% |
Results
edit
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 758,802 | 57.16% | +1.02% | ||
| Democratic | 544,853 | 41.04% | −0.47% | ||
| Independent |
|
16,322 | 1.23% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | 7,614 | 0.57% | −1.66% | ||
| Total votes | 1,327,591 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
By congressional district
editTrump won 3 of 4 congressional districts.[22][user-generated source]
| District | Trump | Harris | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 64.66% | 33.52% | Tracey Mann |
| 2nd | 58.75% | 39.31% | Jake LaTurner (118th Congress) |
| Derek Schmidt (119th Congress) | |||
| 3rd | 47.04% | 51.16% | Sharice Davids |
| 4th | 60.93% | 37.37% | Ron Estes |
Analysis
editIn recent years, Democrats have seen some success in the state, such as defeating the 2022 Kansas abortion referendum and holding the governorship since 2019. This leftward shift has been attributed to the growth of the Kansas City metropolitan area, more specifically Johnson County, the state's most populous, which supported Joe Biden four years prior, the first win for a Democrat in this county since 1916.[23]
Trump improved on his 14.6% margin from 2020, albeit by only 1.5%. As such, Trump is the first Republican to win the White House without Johnson County since William McKinley in 1896, and the first since Kansas achieved statehood to win without Riley County, home to Fort Riley army base and Kansas State University, and Shawnee County, home to the state capital of Topeka.
See also
editNotes
editPartisan clients
References
edit- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "Kansas Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved March 18, 2024.
- ^ "Kansas Republican Presidential Nominating Process" (PDF). sos.ks.gov. March 19, 2024. Retrieved April 24, 2024.
- ^ "Kansas Presidential Primary". The AP. May 2, 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
- ^ a b @KSGreenParty (February 8, 2024). "The Kansas Green Party has concluded its presidential primary. Seven Kansas Green Party members cast their ranked-choice ballot and all ranked @DrJillStein first. Jill Stein will receive all four of our delegates at the Presidential Nominating Convention. #GreenParty" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved May 31, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 4, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ "Kansas Speaks - Fall 2024 Statewide Public Opinion Survey" (PDF). Fort Hays State University. October 28, 2024.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 12, 2023). "Kansas 2024 Poll: Trump Holds 16-point Lead Over Biden in Potential 2024 Rematch". Emerson Polling.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (November 2, 2022). "Kansas 2022: Governor Laura Kelly Holds Three-Point Lead Over AG Derek Schmidt in Gubernatorial Election; Senator Moran leads by 21 points for Re-election". Emerson Polling.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (September 21, 2022). "Kansas 2022: Democratic Governor Laura Kelly in Tight Race with A.G. Derek Schmidt in Gubernatorial Election". Emerson Polling.
- ^ a b Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.
- ^ https://sos.ks.gov/elections/24elec/2024-General-Election-Official-Vote-Totals.pdf
- ^ "2024 Pres by CD".
- ^ "How Johnson County, Kansas, became a crucial battleground in the 2024 election". The Kansas City Star. August 4, 2024. Retrieved October 31, 2024.