2004 United States presidential election in West Virginia

The 2004 United States presidential election in West Virginia took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 5 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2004 United States presidential election in West Virginia

← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
Turnout64.7% (of registered voters)
53.3% (of voting age population)
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 5 0
Popular vote 423,778 326,541
Percentage 56.06% 43.20%

County Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

West Virginia was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 12.86% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 8 of 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state, while others considered it a swing state. Democratic President Bill Clinton easily won this state in 1992 and 1996, but Bush carried the state in 2000 with just 51.92% of the vote. West Virginia is the only state to vote against George H. W. Bush both times and vote for George W. Bush both times. On election day, President Bush won here with a 6.53% better margin than his performance in 2000, signaling that the state was trending Republican at the presidential level. This was despite the fact that more than 50% of the state's population were registered Democrats, and both senators were Democrats.

This also marked the last election in which West Virginia voted for the same presidential candidate as neighboring Virginia, and the first election since 1944 in which West Virginia voted more Republican than Virginia. In the four subsequent U.S. presidential races since 2004, the Republican nominee won West Virginia while the Democratic nominee won Virginia. This is the last presidential election in which Fayette County, Brooke County, Logan County, and Mingo County voted Democratic. Bush was the first Republican since William McKinley to carry West Virginia twice.

Campaign

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Predictions

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There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Likely R
Associated Press Toss-up
CNN Likely R
Cook Political Report Lean R
Newsweek Lean R
New York Times Lean R
Rasmussen Reports Likely R
Research 2000 Toss-up
Washington Post Toss-up
Washington Times Toss-up
Zogby International Likely R
Washington Dispatch Likely R

Polling

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Early on, pre-election polling showed the election as a pure toss up. But after September 14, Bush pulled away and reached 50% or higher in the polls. The final 3 poll average showed Bush leading 50% to 44%.[2]

Fundraising

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Bush raised $527,380.[3] Kerry raised $627,425.[4]

Advertising and visits

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Bush visited the state eight times; Kerry visited the state six times.[5] A total of between $100,000 and $550,000 was spent each week. As the election went on, both tickets spent less and less here each week.[6]

Analysis

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More than any other state, West Virginia highlighted Kerry's trouble in Appalachian America. It swung heavily to the Democrats during the days of Franklin D. Roosevelt and remained reliably Democratic for most of the next 68 years. The state voted for Democrats (such as Jimmy Carter and Mike Dukakis) who went on to big national defeats. This was largely due to its blue-collar, heavily unionized workers, especially coal miners, who favored Democratic economic policy.

Starting with George W. Bush, however, the state's voters became more receptive to Republicans.

Results

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2004 United States presidential election in West Virginia[7]
Party Candidate Running mate Popular vote Electoral vote Swing
Count % Count %
Republican George W. Bush of Texas (incumbent) Dick Cheney of Wyoming (incumbent) 423,778 56.06% 5 100.00%  4.14%
Democratic John Kerry of Massachusetts John Edwards of North Carolina 326,541 43.20% 0 0.00%  2.39%
Independent Ralph Nader of Connecticut Peter Camejo of California 4,063 0.54% 0 0.00%  0.54%
Libertarian Michael Badnarik of Texas Richard Campagna of Iowa 1,405 0.19% 0 0.00%  0.11%
Independent John Kennedy (write-in) of - - of - 13 0.00% 0 0.00%  
Mountain David Cobb (write-in) of Texas Pat LaMarche of Maine 5 0.00% 0 0.00%  1.65%
Total 755,887 100.00% 5 100.00%

By county

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County George W. Bush
Republican
John Kerry
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Barbour 4,004 60.17% 2,610 39.22% 41 0.62% 1,394 20.95% 6,655
Berkeley 21,293 63.03% 12,244 36.24% 248 0.73% 9,049 26.79% 33,785
Boone 4,207 41.25% 5,933 58.18% 58 0.57% -1,726 -16.93% 10,198
Braxton 2,986 49.35% 3,035 50.16% 30 0.50% -49 -0.81% 6,051
Brooke 5,189 48.17% 5,493 50.99% 91 0.85% -304 -2.82% 10,773
Cabell 21,035 55.43% 16,583 43.70% 332 0.87% 4,452 11.73% 37,950
Calhoun 1,588 54.97% 1,266 43.82% 35 1.22% 322 11.15% 2,889
Clay 2,198 53.98% 1,835 45.06% 39 0.95% 363 8.92% 4,072
Doddridge 2,362 74.30% 800 25.17% 17 0.54% 1,562 49.13% 3,179
Fayette 7,881 46.45% 8,971 52.87% 115 0.68% -1,090 -6.42% 16,967
Gilmer 1,665 58.38% 1,159 40.64% 28 0.99% 506 17.74% 2,852
Grant 4,063 80.50% 963 19.08% 21 0.42% 3,100 61.42% 5,047
Greenbrier 8,358 57.43% 6,084 41.81% 111 0.77% 2,274 15.62% 14,553
Hampshire 5,489 68.65% 2,455 30.70% 52 0.65% 3,034 37.95% 7,996
Hancock 7,298 50.96% 6,906 48.22% 117 0.82% 392 2.74% 14,321
Hardy 3,635 68.90% 1,617 30.65% 24 0.46% 2,018 38.25% 5,276
Harrison 17,111 55.94% 13,238 43.28% 239 0.79% 3,873 12.66% 30,588
Jackson 7,686 58.41% 5,384 40.92% 88 0.66% 2,302 17.49% 13,158
Jefferson 10,539 52.71% 9,301 46.52% 153 0.77% 1,238 6.19% 19,993
Kanawha 44,430 50.53% 43,010 48.92% 488 0.55% 1,420 1.61% 87,928
Lewis 4,445 63.51% 2,475 35.36% 79 1.13% 1,970 28.15% 6,999
Lincoln 4,102 49.35% 4,048 48.70% 162 1.95% 54 0.65% 8,312
Logan 7,047 47.02% 7,877 52.56% 63 0.42% -830 -5.54% 14,987
Marion 12,150 48.23% 12,771 50.69% 273 1.08% -621 -2.46% 25,194
Marshall 8,516 56.50% 6,435 42.70% 121 0.80% 2,081 13.80% 15,072
Mason 6,487 54.10% 5,408 45.10% 95 0.80% 1,079 9.00% 11,990
McDowell 2,762 37.84% 4,501 61.67% 36 0.49% -1,739 -23.83% 7,299
Mercer 13,057 58.34% 9,178 41.01% 144 0.64% 3,879 17.33% 22,379
Mineral 7,854 68.53% 3,518 30.70% 89 0.78% 4,336 37.83% 11,461
Mingo 4,612 43.28% 5,983 56.15% 60 0.56% -1,371 -12.87% 10,655
Monongalia 17,670 51.51% 16,313 47.55% 323 0.95% 1,357 3.96% 34,306
Monroe 3,590 60.33% 2,311 38.83% 50 0.84% 1,279 21.50% 5,951
Morgan 4,511 65.88% 2,272 33.18% 64 0.93% 2,239 32.70% 6,847
Nicholas 5,485 52.99% 4,788 46.26% 78 0.75% 697 6.73% 10,351
Ohio 11,694 57.35% 8,543 41.89% 155 0.76% 3,151 15.46% 20,392
Pendleton 2,146 60.55% 1,381 38.97% 17 0.48% 765 21.58% 3,544
Pleasants 2,061 60.00% 1,349 39.27% 25 0.73% 712 20.73% 3,435
Pocahontas 2,295 58.58% 1,573 40.15% 50 1.27% 722 18.43% 3,918
Preston 7,855 65.85% 3,963 33.22% 111 0.93% 3,892 32.63% 11,929
Putnam 15,716 62.49% 9,301 36.98% 134 0.53% 6,415 25.51% 25,151
Raleigh 18,519 60.67% 11,815 38.71% 191 0.62% 6,704 21.96% 30,525
Randolph 6,512 56.68% 4,892 42.58% 86 0.75% 1,620 14.10% 11,490
Ritchie 3,086 73.55% 1,070 25.50% 40 0.95% 2,016 48.05% 4,196
Roane 3,440 56.39% 2,612 42.82% 48 0.79% 828 13.57% 6,100
Summers 2,978 53.91% 2,504 45.33% 42 0.76% 474 8.58% 5,524
Taylor 3,893 59.43% 2,617 39.95% 41 0.62% 1,276 19.48% 6,551
Tucker 2,179 60.53% 1,400 38.89% 21 0.58% 779 21.64% 3,600
Tyler 2,798 65.91% 1,401 33.00% 46 1.09% 1,397 32.91% 4,245
Upshur 6,191 66.62% 3,034 32.65% 68 0.73% 3,157 33.97% 9,293
Wayne 10,070 54.11% 8,411 45.20% 128 0.69% 1,659 8.91% 18,609
Webster 1,724 46.42% 1,965 52.91% 25 0.67% -241 -6.49% 3,714
Wetzel 3,656 51.95% 3,330 47.31% 52 0.74% 326 4.64% 7,038
Wirt 1,727 65.07% 896 33.76% 31 1.17% 831 31.31% 2,654
Wood 24,948 63.60% 14,025 35.75% 254 0.65% 10,923 27.85% 39,227
Wyoming 4,985 57.18% 3,694 42.37% 39 0.45% 1,291 14.81% 8,718
Totals 423,778 56.06% 326,541 43.20% 5,568 0.74% 97,237 12.86% 755,887
 
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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By congressional district

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Bush won all 3 congressional districts, including two held by Democrats.[8]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 58% 42% Alan Mollohan
2nd 57% 42% Shelley Moore Capito
3rd 53% 46% Nick Rahall

Electors

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Technically the voters of WV cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. WV is allocated 5 electors because it has 3 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 5 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 5 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 5 were pledged for Bush/Cheney:

  1. Rob Capehart
  2. Doug McKinney
  3. Dan Moore
  4. Richie Robb
  5. Larry Faircloth

References

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  1. ^ "Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved January 13, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  2. ^ "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Archived from the original on July 20, 2012.
  3. ^ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved May 20, 2015.
  4. ^ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved May 20, 2015.
  5. ^ "Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved May 20, 2015.
  6. ^ "Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved May 20, 2015.
  7. ^ "Official General Election Results for US president (2004)" (PDF). p. 5. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 13, 2009. Retrieved July 17, 2009.
  8. ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008". Swing State Project. Retrieved May 20, 2015.