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2004 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election

The 2004 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 21 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2004 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania
← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
Turnout68.9%[1] Increase 5.9pp
 
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 21 0
Popular vote 2,938,095 2,793,847
Percentage 50.92% 48.42%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

Pennsylvania was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 2.50% margin of victory. Although no Republican carried this state in a presidential election since Bush's father George H. W. Bush in 1988, early polling showed the race was a toss-up, thus was considered as a possible target for the Republicans. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a toss-up, or a crucial swing state. Later polling favored Kerry, leading half of the news organizations to predict that Kerry would win the state, but the other half still considered it a swing state. Although the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in six subsequent elections since 1992, the margins of victory had become smaller over the past elections. On election day, Kerry won the state with 50.92% of the vote, but won only 13 of the 67 counties in Pennsylvania. Most of these 13 counties have the highest populations in the commonwealth. The biggest key to Kerry's victory was winning Philadelphia County with 80.44% of the vote.

Bush was the first president elected to two terms in office without carrying Pennsylvania either time since Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916, and is to date the only Republican presidential candidate to win the presidency without carrying the state at least once, as well as the most recent Republican to win without the state. Although Pennsylvania was also not carried by the winner of the 2000 presidential race, this election also marked the first time since 1968 that Pennsylvania voted against the winner of the national popular vote. Bush was the first Republican to win the national popular vote without Pennsylvania since the 1968 presidential race.

As of 2020, this is the most recent election to date in which Pennsylvania would vote for the losing candidate, thus the state is tied with Wisconsin and Michigan for the longest bellwether streak in the nation.

Primaries

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Eligibility

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In order to vote in the primary, one must have been:[2]

  1. "A citizen of the United States for at least one month before the next primary, special, municipal, or general election."
  2. "A resident of Pennsylvania and the election district in which the individual desires to register and vote for at least 30 days before the next primary, special, municipal, or general election."
  3. "At least 18 years of age on or before the day of the next primary, special, municipal, or general election."
  4. A registered member of the party holding the primary

Convicted felons could not vote from prison and were not allowed to register to vote for five years after being released from prison.

Registration

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Individuals could register to vote at County Voter Registration offices, through the mail, at a Department of Transportation office, or at various other government agency offices.[3]

Voters must have been registered 30 days prior to the election in order to be eligible to vote.[3]

Democratic primary election

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Main article: 2004 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary

The Democratic primary took place on April 27, 2004. It was open to registered Democrats only.

Results

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100% of precincts reporting
Candidate Votes[4] Percentage Delegates
John Kerry 585,683 74.1% 150
Howard Dean 79,799 10.1% 1
John Edwards 76,762 9.7% 0
Dennis Kucinich 30,110 3.8% 0
Lyndon Larouche 17,528 2.2% 0
Uncommitted - 2.2% 27
Total 789,882 100% 178

Note: 27 delegates remained uncommitted until they reached the floor of the convention. Kerry eventually received all 178 delegates from Pennsylvania.[5]

Republican primary election

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The Republican primary took place on April 27, 2004. It was open to registered Republicans only. Incumbent President George W. Bush ran unopposed.[6]

General election

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Predictions

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There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[7]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Toss-up
Associated Press Toss-up
CNN Likely D
Cook Political Report Toss-up
Newsweek Lean D
New York Times Lean D
Rasmussen Reports Toss-up
Research 2000 Lean D
Washington Post Toss-up
Washington Times Toss-up
Zogby International Likely D
Washington Dispatch Likely D

Polling

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Al Gore won Pennsylvania in 2000 with just over 50% of the vote. In late October 2004, the state was split at 47% on whether or not to approve of Bush. But Kerry won the poll 48% to 46% in the last Mason Dixon poll.[8] Throughout the election of 2004, Kerry won most of the polls in the upper 40% to lower 50% range. However, Bush polled within the margin of error, usually in the mid 40% range. In the last Real Clear Politics average Kerry was leading with 48% and by almost a 1% margin.[9]

Fundraising

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Bush raised $5,030,349.[10] Kerry raised $4,998,861.[11]

Advertising and visits

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President Bush campaigned heavily and visited the state of Pennsylvania over twenty times in 2004. It was not enough to flip the state, as John Kerry won the undecided Pennsylvanians. He won the state's electors with almost 51% of the vote, outperforming Vice President Al Gore's performance four years earlier.[12][13]

Analysis

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This Kerry victory can be attributed to the overwhelmingly Democratic cities of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Erie. Although Kerry-held cities which voted for the Senator by narrow margins assisted him in advancing his margin over President Bush, many political analysts underscored the fact that if Philadelphia were excluded, President George W. Bush would have won Pennsylvania by a fairly slim margin, with 2,663,748 versus 2,395,890 for Kerry. Although Pennsylvania is closely divided in most elections, it did not vote Republican in a presidential election from 1992 to 2012.

Philadelphia and Pittsburgh were the biggest contributors to Kerry's victory in Pennsylvania. However, many independents in suburban Philadelphia counties (Bucks, Delaware, Montgomery, and somewhat in Chester) voted for Kerry, which may well have been the deciding factor. Kerry also had narrow margins of victory around cities like Allentown, Scranton, Erie, and the traditionally Democratic Pittsburgh suburbs; he also garnered many votes in certain rural areas such as parts of the Poconos and the Laurel Highlands, and in cities like Reading, Johnstown, Harrisburg, and State College. Bush's margins were extremely large in Central Pennsylvania and the sparsely populated Northern Tier, with traditional GOP cities such as Lancaster, Lebanon, York, Altoona, Huntingdon, and Williamsport strongly throwing their support behind him. This area, along with rural western Maryland, was clearly the most conservative in the Mid-Atlantic.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last presidential election that the Democratic candidate won any county bordering Allegheny County, namely Washington County, Beaver County and Fayette County. This is also the last election in which Dauphin County, Centre County, and Monroe County voted for the Republican candidate. This is also the last time that Chester County gave a majority to a Republican, although Mitt Romney did win the county with a plurality in 2012.

Results

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2004 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 2,938,095 50.92% 21
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 2,793,847 48.42% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 21,185 0.37% 0
Green David Cobb 6,319 0.11% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka 6,318 0.11% 0
Independent Ralph Nader (write-in)[14][a] 2,656 0.05% 0
Independent Write-ins 1,170 0.02% 0
Totals 5,769,590 100.00% 21
Voter turnout (voting age population) 60.5%

By county

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County[16] John Kerry
Democratic 		George W. Bush
Republican 		Michael J. Badnarik
Libertarian 		David Cobb
Green 		Michael Peroutka
Constitution 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % # % # %
Adams 13,764 32.59% 28,247 66.89% 95 0.22% 63 0.15% 59 0.14% -14,483 -34.30% 42,228
Allegheny 368,912 57.15% 271,925 42.13% 3,573 0.55% 551 0.09% 508 0.08% 96,987 15.02% 645,469
Armstrong 12,025 38.67% 18,925 60.86% 56 0.18% 41 0.13% 50 0.16% -6,900 -22.19% 31,097
Beaver 42,146 51.06% 39,916 48.36% 165 0.20% 141 0.17% 175 0.21% 2,230 2.70% 82,543
Bedford 6,016 26.53% 16,606 73.22% 19 0.08% 15 0.07% 23 0.10% -10,590 -46.69% 22,679
Berks 76,309 46.39% 87,122 52.97% 551 0.33% 295 0.18% 210 0.13% -10,813 -6.58% 164,487
Blair 18,105 33.42% 35,751 65.99% 210 0.39% 54 0.10% 58 0.11% -17,646 -32.57% 54,178
Bradford 8,590 33.49% 16,942 66.05% 57 0.22% 27 0.11% 36 0.14% -8,352 -32.56% 25,652
Bucks 163,438 51.10% 154,469 48.30% 1,338 0.42% 308 0.10% 263 0.08% 8,969 2.80% 319,816
Butler 30,090 35.22% 54,959 64.34% 182 0.21% 83 0.10% 111 0.13% -24,869 -29.12% 85,425
Cambria 32,591 48.66% 34,048 50.83% 159 0.24% 86 0.13% 99 0.15% -1,457 -2.17% 66,983
Cameron 794 33.00% 1,599 66.46% 8 0.33% 3 0.12% 2 0.08% -805 -33.46% 2,406
Carbon 12,223 48.81% 12,519 49.99% 229 0.91% 42 0.17% 30 0.12% -296 -1.18% 25,043
Centre 30,733 47.74% 33,133 51.47% 227 0.35% 90 0.14% 70 0.11% -2,400 -3.73% 64,374
Chester 109,708 47.53% 120,036 52.00% 632 0.27% 263 0.11% 184 0.08% -10,328 -4.47% 230,823
Clarion 6,049 35.20% 11,063 64.38% 37 0.22% 19 0.11% 16 0.09% -5,014 -29.18% 17,184
Clearfield 13,518 39.49% 20,533 59.98% 68 0.20% 47 0.14% 67 0.20% -7,015 -20.49% 34,233
Clinton 5,823 41.69% 8,035 57.53% 83 0.59% 13 0.09% 13 0.09% -2,212 -15.84% 13,967
Columbia 10,679 39.74% 16,052 59.74% 57 0.21% 39 0.15% 42 0.16% -5,373 -20.00% 26,869
Crawford 16,013 41.79% 21,965 57.32% 176 0.46% 63 0.16% 105 0.27% -5,952 -15.53% 38,322
Cumberland 37,928 35.75% 67,648 63.77% 265 0.25% 112 0.11% 129 0.12% -29,720 -28.02% 106,082
Dauphin 55,299 45.62% 65,296 53.87% 274 0.23% 171 0.14% 168 0.14% -9,997 -8.25% 121,208
Delaware 162,601 57.15% 120,425 42.32% 946 0.33% 312 0.11% 254 0.09% 42,176 14.83% 284,538
Elk 6,602 45.37% 7,872 54.10% 25 0.17% 20 0.14% 31 0.21% -1,270 -8.73% 14,550
Erie 67,921 53.95% 57,372 45.57% 334 0.27% 159 0.13% 112 0.09% 10,549 8.38% 125,898
Fayette 29,120 53.23% 25,045 45.78% 447 0.82% 43 0.08% 52 0.10% 4,075 7.45% 54,707
Forest 989 38.44% 1,571 61.06% 8 0.31% 3 0.12% 2 0.08% -582 -22.62% 2,573
Franklin 16,562 28.28% 41,817 71.40% 90 0.15% 44 0.08% 56 0.10% -25,255 -43.12% 58,569
Fulton 1,475 23.52% 4,772 76.10% 15 0.24% 4 0.06% 5 0.08% -3,297 -52.58% 6,271
Greene 7,674 49.30% 7,786 50.02% 32 0.21% 44 0.28% 29 0.19% -112 -0.72% 15,565
Huntingdon 5,879 32.56% 12,126 67.15% 20 0.11% 19 0.11% 14 0.08% -6,247 -34.59% 18,058
Indiana 15,831 43.67% 20,254 55.88% 77 0.21% 47 0.13% 39 0.11% -4,423 -12.21% 36,248
Jefferson 6,073 31.05% 13,371 68.36% 58 0.30% 28 0.14% 30 0.15% -7,298 -37.31% 19,560
Juniata 2,797 27.95% 7,144 71.40% 30 0.30% 15 0.15% 20 0.20% -4,347 -43.45% 10,006
Lackawanna 59,573 56.30% 44,766 42.30% 1,288 1.22% 113 0.11% 79 0.07% 14,807 14.00% 105,819
Lancaster 74,328 33.58% 145,591 65.77% 705 0.32% 255 0.12% 399 0.18% -71,263 -32.19% 221,372
Lawrence 21,387 49.23% 21,938 50.50% 56 0.13% 26 0.06% 35 0.08% -551 -1.27% 43,442
Lebanon 18,109 32.53% 37,089 66.63% 323 0.58% 51 0.09% 93 0.17% -18,980 -34.10% 55,665
Lehigh 73,940 50.96% 70,160 48.36% 638 0.44% 160 0.11% 193 0.13% 3,780 2.60% 145,091
Luzerne 69,573 51.15% 64,953 47.75% 1,195 0.88% 180 0.13% 127 0.09% 4,620 3.40% 136,028
Lycoming 15,681 31.31% 33,961 67.81% 279 0.56% 77 0.15% 51 0.10% -18,280 -36.50% 50,081
Mckean 6,294 36.12% 10,941 62.79% 148 0.85% 23 0.13% 20 0.11% -4,647 -26.67% 17,426
Mercer 24,831 48.16% 26,311 51.03% 149 0.29% 133 0.26% 140 0.27% -1,480 -2.87% 51,564
Mifflin 4,889 29.10% 11,726 69.79% 144 0.86% 20 0.12% 23 0.14% -6,837 -40.69% 16,802
Monroe 27,967 49.64% 27,971 49.65% 287 0.51% 64 0.11% 53 0.09% -4 -0.01% 56,342
Montgomery 222,048 55.57% 175,741 43.98% 1,088 0.27% 349 0.09% 365 0.09% 46,307 11.59% 399,591
Montour 2,666 34.97% 4,903 64.31% 34 0.45% 10 0.13% 11 0.14% -2,237 -29.34% 7,624
Northampton 63,446 50.02% 62,102 48.96% 885 0.70% 187 0.15% 120 0.09% 1,344 1.06% 126,849
Northumberland 14,602 39.32% 22,262 59.95% 139 0.37% 47 0.13% 84 0.23% -7,660 -20.63% 37,134
Perry 5,423 27.91% 13,919 71.65% 36 0.19% 24 0.12% 25 0.13% -8,496 -43.74% 19,427
Philadelphia 542,205 80.44% 130,099 19.30% 895 0.13% 483 0.07% 387 0.06% 412,106 61.14% 674,069
Pike 8,656 40.64% 12,444 58.43% 144 0.68% 31 0.15% 24 0.11% -3,788 -17.79% 21,299
Potter 2,268 28.49% 5,640 70.84% 18 0.23% 9 0.11% 27 0.34% -3,372 -42.35% 7,962
Schuylkill 29,231 44.79% 35,640 54.60% 186 0.28% 129 0.20% 83 0.13% -6,409 -9.81% 65,269
Snyder 4,348 29.02% 10,566 70.52% 33 0.22% 18 0.12% 18 0.12% -6,218 -41.50% 14,983
Somerset 12,842 34.92% 23,802 64.72% 48 0.13% 38 0.10% 48 0.13% -10,960 -29.80% 36,778
Sullivan 1,213 36.93% 2,056 62.59% 10 0.30% 5 0.15% 1 0.03% -843 -25.66% 3,285
Susquehanna 7,351 38.61% 11,573 60.78% 54 0.28% 33 0.17% 29 0.15% -4,222 -22.17% 19,040
Tioga 5,437 30.94% 12,019 68.40% 49 0.28% 23 0.13% 43 0.24% -6,582 -37.46% 17,571
Union 5,700 35.35% 10,334 64.09% 46 0.29% 30 0.19% 13 0.08% -4,634 -28.74% 16,123
Venango 9,024 38.14% 14,472 61.17% 93 0.39% 31 0.13% 39 0.16% -5,448 -23.03% 23,659
Warren 8,044 41.74% 10,999 57.07% 79 0.41% 34 0.18% 117 0.61% -2,955 -15.33% 19,273
Washington 48,225 50.14% 47,673 49.57% 142 0.15% 59 0.06% 78 0.08% 552 0.57% 96,177
Wayne 8,060 36.69% 13,713 62.43% 136 0.62% 23 0.10% 35 0.16% -5,653 -25.74% 21,967
Westmoreland 77,774 43.52% 100,087 56.01% 474 0.27% 155 0.09% 206 0.12% -22,313 -12.49% 178,696
Wyoming 4,982 38.82% 7,782 60.65% 20 0.16% 22 0.17% 26 0.20% -2,800 -21.83% 12,832
York 63,701 35.53% 114,270 63.74% 821 0.46% 213 0.12% 264 0.15% -50,569 -28.21% 179,269
Totals 2,938,095 50.92% 2,793,847 48.42% 21,185 0.37% 6,319 0.11% 6,318 0.11% 144,248 2.50% 5,769,590
 
County flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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By congressional district

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Kerry won 10 of 19 congressional districts, including four held by Republicans. Bush won 9 districts, including one held by a Democrat.[17]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 15% 84% Bob Brady
2nd 12% 87% Chaka Fattah
3rd 53% 47% Phil English
4th 54% 45% Melissa Hart
5th 61% 39% John E. Peterson
6th 48% 52% Jim Gerlach
7th 47% 53% Curt Weldon
8th 48% 51% James C. Greenwood
Mike Fitzpatrick
9th 67% 33% Bill Shuster
10th 60% 40% Don Sherwood
11th 47% 53% Paul Kanjorski
12th 49% 51% John Murtha
13th 43% 56% Joe Hoeffel
Allyson Schwartz
14th 30% 69% Mike Doyle
15th 50% 50% Pat Toomey
Charlie Dent
16th 61% 38% Joe Pitts
17th 58% 42% Tim Holden
18th 54% 46% Tim Murphy
19th 64% 36% Todd Platts

Electors

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Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Pennsylvania cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Pa. is allocated 21 electors because it has 19 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 21 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 21 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 21 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.

  1. Lynne Abraham
  2. Richard Bloomingdale
  3. Blondell Reynolds Brown
  4. Robert Casey Jr.
  5. Eileen Connelly
  6. H. William DeWeese
  7. John Dougherty
  8. Richard E. Filippi
  9. William George
  10. Renee Gillinger
  11. Jennifer Mann
  12. Robert J. Mellow
  13. Dan Onorato
  14. Juan Ramos
  15. Stephen R. Reed
  16. T.J. Rooney
  17. Jonathan Saidel
  18. John F. Street
  19. Rosemary Trump
  20. Sala Udin
  21. Constance H. Williams

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ Nader initially qualified to appear on the ballot via petition, but on October 13, 2004, a ruling of the Commonwealth Court of Pennsylvania removed him from the ballot after finding that most of the petition's signatures were invalid or forged.[15]

References

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  1. ^ "As far as voter turnout, 2012's got nothing on 2008". WHYY. Retrieved September 5, 2024.
  2. ^ Pennsylvania Department of State
  3. ^ a b Pennsylvania Department of State
  4. ^ "Pennsylvania Department of State - Commissions, Elections, and Legislation". Archived from the original on December 27, 2005. Retrieved August 6, 2012.
  5. ^ Pennsylvania Democratic Delegation 2004
  6. ^ "2004 General Primary". Elections Information. Pennsylvania Department of State. Retrieved August 6, 2012.
  7. ^ "Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved January 13, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  8. ^ NBC News
  9. ^ "RealClear Politics - Polls".
  10. ^ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".
  11. ^ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
  12. ^ "America votes 2004: Candidate tracker". CNN. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
  13. ^ "America votes 2004: Campaign ad buys". CNN. Archived from the original on April 22, 2021. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
  14. ^ "Pennsylvania notes from the campaign trail". WNEP. Associated Press. October 2004. Archived from the original on November 16, 2004. Retrieved April 26, 2024.
  15. ^ Zernike, Kate (October 14, 2004). "Court Strikes Nader From Pennsylvania Ballot". The New York Times. p. A25. Retrieved April 26, 2024.
  16. ^ "Pennsylvania Elections – County Breakdown Results". electionreturns.pa.gov. November 2, 2004. Retrieved December 28, 2019.
  17. ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
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