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Excel - FORECAST.ETS.STAT Function
Description
The FORECAST.ETS.STAF function returns a statistical value as a result of time series forecasting. Statistic type indicates which statistic is requested by this function.
Syntax
FORECAST.ETS.STAT (values, timeline, statistic_type, [seasonality], [data_completion], [aggregation])
Arguments
| Argument | Description | Required/ Optional |
|---|---|---|
| Values | Values are the historical values, for which you want to forecast the next points. | Required |
| Timeline |
The independent array or range of numeric data. The dates in the timeline must have a consistent step between them and cannot be zero. However, FORECAST.ETS.STAT supports up to 30% missing data, and will automatically adjust for it. The timeline is not required to be sorted, as FORECAST.ETS.STAT will sort it implicitly for calculations. |
Required |
| Statistic_type | A numeric value between 1 and 8, indicating which statistic will be returned for the calculated forecast. | Required |
| Seasonality |
A numeric value. The default value of 1 means Excel detects seasonality automatically for the forecast and uses positive, whole numbers for the length of the seasonal pattern. 0 indicates no seasonality, meaning the prediction will be linear. Positive whole numbers will indicate to the algorithm to use patterns of this length as the seasonality. Maximum supported seasonality is 8,760 (number of hours in a year). |
Optional |
| Data_completion |
FORECAST.ETS.STAT supports up to 30% missing data in the timeline and will automatically adjust for it based on Data_completion. The default value of 1 will account for missing points by completing them to be the average of the neighboring points. 0 will indicate the algorithm to account for missing points as zeros. |
Optional |
| Aggregation |
Although the timeline requires a constant step between data points, FORECAST.ETS.STAT will aggregate multiple points which have the same time stamp. The aggregation parameter is a numeric value indicating which method will be used to aggregate several values with the same time stamp. The default value of 0 will use AVERAGE, while other options are SUM, COUNT, COUNTA, MIN, MAX, and MEDIAN. |
Optional |
Notes
FORECAST.ETS.STAT function is added in Excel 2016.
This Function uses advanced machine learning algorithms, such as Exponential Triple Smoothing (ETS).
If a constant step cannot be identified in the provided timeline, FORECAST.ETS.STAT returns the #NUM! error.
If timeline contains duplicate values, FORECAST.ETS.STAT returns the #VALUE! Error.
If the ranges of the timeline and values are not of same size, FORECAST.ETS.STAT returns the #N/A error.
If the Seasonality is <0, or >8760, or a non-numeric value, FORECAST.ETS.STAT returns the #NUM! error.
The following optional statistics can be returned −
| Alpha parameter of ETS algorithm | Returns the base value parametera higher value gives more weight to recent data points. |
| Beta parameter of ETS algorithm | Returns the trend value parametera higher value gives more weight to the recent trend. |
| Gamma parameter of ETS algorithm | Returns the seasonality value parametera higher value gives more weight to the recent seasonal period. |
| MASE metric | Returns the mean absolute scaled error metric a measure of the accuracy of forecasts. |
| SMAPE metric | Returns the symmetric mean absolute percentage error metrican accuracy measure based on percentage errors. |
| MAE metric | Returns the symmetric mean absolute percentage error metrican accuracy measure based on percentage errors. |
| RMSE metric | Returns the root mean squared error metrica measure of the differences between predicted and observed values. |
| Step size detected | Returns the step size detected in the historical timeline. |
Applicability
Excel 2016
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