baerrus

baerrus

I'm expecting a retracement of 23%. Why? To move higher the Market needs a healthy +20% correction. Using fibonacci retracement gives us 1785 as the next level when the correction may reverse. 1825 is the October 2014 low.

baerrus

While Fibonacci retracements are king, there is something to be said for simple 50% retracements as well

baerrus

I am surprised a little by the strength of the market withstanding Greek meltdown with not much more than a hiccup. The volatility is dropping and relationship between VXV and VIX is indicating market up

baerrus

IBM had a disastrous quarter in Q3 2014, where growth dramatically slowed. The market has punished IBM by selling it off hard. Following its drop from $190 to $160 IBM went into a long period of accumulation. The chart reminds me a classic Wyckoff pattern. As Richard Wyckoff explained in his seminal book on tap reading, large Wallstreet operators are not afraid to...

baerrus

This is not looking good. The spread between the 90 day volatility index VXV and the standard "fear gauge", the 30-days VIX continues to grow. The growing spread means there is elevated put option buying in July August, September SPX cycles. While at the same time there isn't any fear near term. I am contemplating an SPY put purchase. Perhaps I will buy a full...

baerrus

A decent entry point for a medium term trade on the long side. The article explains how to trade TLT with options optionsforum.net

baerrus

This is not my first TSLA trade but it feels like one. Back in early 2013 when I did some put selling in TSLA, it was a completely different stock in so many ways. Two years ago Tesla was a small cap stock trading for $20+ with a terrific story. Today Tesla is one of the top momentum stocks on WallStreet. And it the process, it is leading the way of electric...

baerrus

When medium term volatility index VXV remains expensive while 30 day VIX gets cheap, watch out! Historically it signified local Market tops.

baerrus

This is what is known as refining crack spread. The difference between US local crude prices (WTI) and gasoline, kerosine etc, which are tied to Brent Crude prices. The wider the spread, the more margin can Oil Refiner pocket. This spread is what really drives oil refining stocks, not the price of Oil itself. Today the spread shrunk from $7 to $6 and look what...

baerrus

Next few days could be challenging. However, ADBE respected BB in the past. More optionsforum.net

baerrus

Today I purchased Arpril 70 puts in AstraZeneca. In the white-hot Biotech/Phrama one must choose whether to chase the stocks to the upside or hope for weight of gravity to bring laggards back to earth. AZN, in my opinion, has been flung up by all the maniacal merger activity happening all around it. optionsforum.net

baerrus

A very short term tactical trade. Playing a pullback after a selloff on earnings. This needs to be traded with a rather tight stop. More trade detail optionsforum.net

baerrus

Qualcomm (QCOM) has reported their calendar Q4 2014 quarter earnings on Jan 28, 2015. The key was a loss of a large mobile customer and 2015 guidance reduction which sent the stock down ~ 11%. This is a significant drop for a staid, blue chip tech stock like QCOM. Thus creating a high probability, tradeable pullback. optionsforum.net

baerrus

SGEN has returned to $30 for the 3rd time since May 2014. Notice how Volatility has picked up since October and has not let up.

baerrus

10 years chart of WMT looks pretty scary. The last time WMT gained as much as it did in November 2014 was in December 1999. In the midst if the last leg of dotcom bubble. As you can see back in 1999 it quickly gave back those gains and then some. Now, I am not saying we are in a bubble now. But WMT has moved too far, way too fast. The comparison with the bull...

baerrus

Dec 5 was the first day of lockup expiration for ANET. Look at that Volume - a textbook supply driven selloff. Read more on optionsforum.net

baerrus

GreenBrier is a premium industrial in a hot segment of the Market. Over the last couple of years it has been on a tear, advancing more than 100%. Now there are Mutual funds and other institutional investors who are sitting on healthy gains. Note that fundamental story has NOT changed a bit. This is a pure rush to lock in profits - Look at this selloff. This...

baerrus

Who is buying to support WDAY in the last few weeks? WDAY does not have a stock buyback program afaik. Looking at the chart we can see that there were many days where WDAY would start to fall hard. Then someone would step in to buy. Look for days with long hair line below the candle.