NimbusCapital

NimbusCapital

The overall market thus far has been propped up by just 5 stocks 1) Apple 2) Nvidia 3) Microsoft 4) Meta 5) Tesla It is no secret the market breadth is not that great. However, IF (IFFFFFFFFF), this is a healthy uptrend that is supported by the economy, we should see the rally becoming broader. I.E. Funds should flow into mid-caps and small-caps. There should...

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Seems like there is a sector rotation happening on Friday. S&P and Dow30 rallied 1-2%, while Nasdaq lag behind by 0.65%. The sectors that rallied on Friday were the Material, Industrial, and Consumer Cyclical. It may be a good time to bottom-pick some of the bruised and battered cyclical. This is a pure technical play on an oversold company. The support...

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After a month-long consolidation, S&P (and Nasdaq) finally broke out to the upside. This was not led by macro drivers but by AI Mania and Nvda's earnings. Both indices were sideway for the entire April where the majority of the Tech earnings were released. Only after NVDA forecast 11bil in 2Q2023 revenue and a huge backlog of AI-related products, the Tech sector...

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Earning season is here! While the major banks earnings were somewhat positive overall, the Tech Sector got a rocky start Netflix missed revenue estimate and subscription numbers Tesla went from growth to both Revenue and Earning contraction for 1Q2023. There is a glut in the chip sector as well which doesn't really spell good news for AMD and NVDA. Considering...

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It is no secret that we are bearish on Apple. Recent demand for iPhones has gone down rapidly. Revenue and income show sign of the company going ex-growth. Price is now below the earning "rally". The gap at 149-145 which should act as strong support is now broken. We should be seeing more downside toward the 136 level. On a longer time frame, we expect Apple...

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We warn of this selldown just 1 week ago while everyone else is calling for dip buying and all-time high targets Now the market is calling for a 50bps hike. Some are going as far as a 75bps hike for March 2023. So what happened here? 1) Unprecedented activity in the options market. Massive buying of call options by FOMOers and YOLOers has a material...

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Nasdaq have been in sideway for the first half of Feb 2023 During this period we have 1) FOMC meeting 2) CPI data 3) PPI Data 4) Unemployment Data 5) Retails During the FOMC on the 1st of Feb 2023, Powell was confident of a soft landing. He mentioned the word "disinflation" approximately 20 times. He gave the green light for the market to rally by stating...

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10YY is back at Dec 2022 high, yet S&P is far from Dec 2022 low. 100Y has broken out above resistance. The dollar continues to show strength. No doubt, there is bound to be a market retracement coming up. If you FOMO during the last week, you may want to trim some long positions. The next question is, will a new higher low be created? There are 2...

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Make no mistake; we are bearish on Oil and Gas over the longer term. The longer-term price trend is still on the downside. This is on the back of a recessionary theme and global demand destruction. As of now, the market rally is still fueled by the "Fed Pivot" expectation. The credit market is fighting the Fed, sending the yield and the dollar to the...

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As we close out the first trading week of 2023, all 3 US indices close on Friday with a 2+% gain. What a great start to 2023! Is it really, though? If you think the market rallied on higher than expected NFP and lower unemployment rates, this is your first mistake. For most of 2022, the market had considered any economic strength is bad for stocks because...

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This is pure chasing of momentum. It seems like the resistance at 1.400 is broken with sufficient volume backing it. Volume increased on both buying days, denoted by the green arrows. We do have a significant selling volume on 04 Nov 2022, hence the first TP is at 1.680. If the price managed to break above 1.680, then this would signify that 04 Nov 2022 is a...

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We mentioned and called out the ridiculousness of the pre-fomc rally in our last analysis. You may refer to it here During the FOMC conference on 03 Nov 2022, Jerome Powell mentioned 2 key points 1) It is too complacent to even think about pausing. Do you hear that Bulls? Even Jerome Powell thinks you are complacent. Tone down the Fed Pivot Nonsense,...

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S&P500 is now back at 3900. This price is ABOVE the last FOMC level. The audacity and arrogance of the bulls! This begs the question, "Was there anything that occurs during last Fomc and now that justifies this rally?" None. Tech earnings were abysmal Apple and Netflix rallied on earnings but, the result was pretty bad. Recall that we call bullshit earnings on...

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After closing below 3600 on 30 Sep 2022, S&P fought back with a vengeance. The future price is now currently trading above 3700. This rally may have been triggered by a fall in treasury yield and the US Dollar. The US 10-Year Yield peaked at 4.02% and has so far lost 40 bps The US dollar Index (DXY), peaked at 114.77 and is currently trading at 111.55 ...

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A relief rally for S&P500 but.. it is what it is... just a relief rally. That does not mean we cannot take advantage of it. We can play the short-term upside with Call options on overly beaten-down counters. Meta is a good choice for a relief play. I personally am holding a short-term call option on Meta. This does not mean Meta is going back to an...

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The biggest weight on S&P, Nasdaq, and Berkshire Hathaway. Apple is now more than 40% of Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio. Rewind to 1997, Coca-Cola was the darling stock of Warren Buffett and it took up 37% of his portfolio. Coca-Cola back then was different. It was like how Apple is now. It was flooded with cash. It was a growth machine, acquiring small companies...

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S&P has broken down 3900 last week as mentioned. Previous analysis. 75 bps is pretty much priced in. The more important question is will FOMC raised its total FFR projection? The current FFR projection for 2022 is 3.4%. If 75bps is raised for September, FOMC only needs to raise another 25bps to hit the 2022 target. BUT..a VERY BIG BUT here.. IF FOMC raises...

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You're highly encouraged to view the previous analysis Yesterday's price action confirms that 1) 4200 resistance will not be broken anytime soon without a fundamental/macro driver 2) 4115 is the new hard resistance Price is re-testing the previous low at 3900 but beware. There is NO narrative for bull aside from "ShOrT SquZeezEEeee" and "Stock market is...