Daniel.B

Daniel.B Updated 

Fits the criteria of what I'm aiming for so I went long today after missing the breakout yesterday. Stock in an uptrend... i.e. 10 / 20 / 50 ema's are all sloping upwards, declining price volatility after a large move (price tightening) along with declining volume while consolidating after a big move. One concerning note is the low trading volume during the...

Daniel.B Updated 

Could be a breakout that was breaking above resistance around the $40.60 area. Not really liking how it never had any meaningful tightening like it did earlier around May / July of this year. As usual trend is up so we attempt to go along with it. We'll leave it to probability and let it sort itself out in the end. Risk managed by a stop-loss order & position...

Daniel.B Updated 

Not much to say about this one other than it is not the first time it attempts to run. Preferably I would like to see a large move up in the previous month and a consolidation with a shakeout followed by tightening prior to a breakout. But we don't live in a perfect world & this account is for building a database of trades with the goal of building an edge in...

Daniel.B Updated 

Hello Traders, My most recent equity position is active. I'm long $DDD as it has broken out of the symmetrical triangle pattern it was trading within for 55 weeks. I have highlighted accumulation volume with green arrows. I have also plotted out the Fibonacci levels to keep an eye out for. Anyhow, good luck. Trade smart and with a plan. Cheers. =)

Daniel.B Updated 

Hello Traders, At the end of the month I like to do some monthly candlestick analysis and look at how the month closed and to get a better feel for the longer term perspective. Technically the yen looks poised for further gains since closing below the previous month's lows. I use depending on the asset class the 10 EMA or 20 EMA on the Monthly Charts to...

Daniel.B Updated 

Hello Traders, We now find gold at a true crossroads between what could be the beginning of a new bull market in the commodity or the beginning of a new leg back down to 1100. There are multiple uses for gold as a hedge for various reasons so I'll veer away from attempting to use any of them as an explanation and stick to the purest form of analysis which is...

Daniel.B Updated 

Hello Traders, Oil is at a true crossroads, testing whether the bull thesis shall be ruled correct. We have had a daily close below the 200ma and as P.T.J says,“One principle for sure would be: get out of anything that falls below the 200-day moving average.” With that being said, oil has tested the uptrend multiple times and we are seeing some weakness...

Daniel.B

Oil consensus seems to be that it is expected to continue it's bullish run after the narrative behind the "long oil" trade completely does a complete reversal looking to surpass the highs...? I'm not sure about everybody else but crude is banging around its daily 200ma and testing the bullish uptrend it's been on for a year or so for the 5th time. It would not...

Daniel.B

Hello Traders, EUR/GBP has seem to of formed a 10-month long ascending triangle pattern. After congesting within this pattern for some time it looks as if we have the potential for a breakout swing trade in either direction. I like to play it safe and trade in the direction of the breakout when it happens instead of trying to predict exactly where the market...

Daniel.B

Hello Traders, I've exited my neutral options spread on $TLT today for decent gains as price retreated back to the center of it. I am now looking for the potential to add back into a directional position on $IEF (better cost basis then $TLH or $TLT) through common shares if we get a bounce at the 23.6% fibonacci level. Stop will be announced in the updates...

Daniel.B

Hello Traders, The previous week offered a decent intra-week opportunity for me to short oil for a 2 day hold on the short (covered on Friday at daily 200 MA). Now on to longer time-frame opportunities with oil and oil related assets. Overlaid on the chart is an area chart of WTI Crude Oil (ticker: /CL). With the potential for further weakness in the black...

Daniel.B Updated 

Well here we have it ladies and gents. U.S. Treasury Bonds, and other risk-off assets across the board are printing new highs. Since the beginning of 2017 I've held bonds spread between medium and longer term dated maturities on my book. Why? Because they were simply within a buying area and with rates in a constant state of decline after peaking in the 1980s...

Daniel.B Updated 

Hello Traders, I'm back in to full original long exposure to NYSE:UTX . New Stop at the 104 - 105 area. No overall target as long as price remains above the 200MA then I'm in the trade. Short term resistance marked out by Fibonacci 78.6% and 88.6% retracements. Previous ATH is $124.45 Please see linked idea for original trade. Trade smart, and with...

Daniel.B Updated 

Hey Traders, I'm mostly testing out neutral strategies with small positions to add to a separate portfolio dedicated to market neutral strategies. The position is as follows. Option Strategy: Iron Condor Position Expiration: 21 APR 17 (Red Vertical Line / 10 Days to Exp -1.05% .) Total Legs: 4 Total Contracts held: 16 Position Breakeven Points: $63.74 /...

Daniel.B

We have now had the first weekly close below the 10-YR 2.31% Yield. =)

Daniel.B Updated 

Looks like the crowded bond short consensus/reflation trade is about to get smacked... Positions in stock and options between $TLH and $TLT. Extreme positioning usually does not end well for the herd. I wonder if people shorting when market rate for 10-Years was above 2.31% ever even knew that rates have been under pressure since peaking over 3 decades ago.......

Daniel.B

Hello Traders, News of South Africa being cut to junk has brought my attention back to the South African Rand. The reason for the cut stems from South Africa President Zuma's decision to remove the finance minister Pravin Gordhan in a move to fill his cabinet with loyalists. Historically, a shake up in the countries finance ministry has undermined economic...

Daniel.B Updated 

The company meets my fundamental screens. But I'm just looking for a quick 2R - 3R bang from it at the moment. Trade idea is outlined on the chart. Price gapped again on volume above $78 resistance after basing below $71. Price is trading +4% from the 50 Moving Average and has had a significant run since January 2017, hence the reason I'm more hesitant to...