Harris factor an unknown quantity

Editorial | Mary Ma 25 Jul 2024

US vice-president Kamala Harris has quickly secured enough nomination votes within the Democratic Party amid a sense of sarcasm.

If Joe Biden's dropping out of the race was unprecedented - though anticipated - so are the nomination votes that had been pledged to Biden during the Democratic primary and are now switching to Harris without the call of a new vote.

Something is missing somewhere out there.

Perhaps what is happening right now in the Democratic Party is so unprecedented that the generally applauded rule of procedural justice also ceases to apply, which does not bode well for a democratic system that claims to be a leading model.

You can blame it on politics.

Now that Harris has replaced Biden as the party's preferred candidate, the question is: how will she fare against the Republican Party's Donald Trump in November?

Recent poll figures have been favorable as far as Harris is concerned. Many polls conducted immediately before and after Biden's withdrawal showed Harris has either narrowed Trump's lead or been ahead of him.

According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted on Monday and Tuesday after Biden's withdrawal from the contest, Harris leads Trump by 44 percent to 42 percent. That is how 1,018 registered voters currently think about the race.

In the event that someone like Robert F Kennedy running as an independent, Harris' s lead over Trump would even widen to four points by 42 percent to 38 percent. Kennedy would take some votes away from both Harris and Trump.

These are the immediate questions facing Trump's campaign.

That being said, it would be naive to think the Democrats have solved the Biden issue after ushering in Harris.

An immediate question is: who is Harris?

Many Americans still do not know her. The powerful Democrat donors may have deliberately kept her in a low profile so that the country would keep their focus on Biden.

Then, an outstanding question is: if the top Democrats were so certain that Harris was stronger than Biden, why did they not pick her in the first place to avoid a fiasco that was not totally unpredictable in light of Biden's health concerns over the years?

The donors - including the biggest - had shown a preference for Biden in the beginning because they thought he had a better chance in defeating Trump.

As Biden ages and his health continues to deteriorate faster than feared, the optimism has also faded.

Polls during the course of Biden's presidency showed both he and Harris had similar approval ratings that changed only recently. It would be unrealistic to expect Harris to outperform the pre-debate Biden overnight.

Her catching up in the polls could be a short-term bump as her entrance has renewed Democratic supporters' hopes that had dropped to a low after many were appalled by Biden's painful debate performance.

Perhaps, anyone including US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, could have achieved the same effect.

If the Democrats' move to replace Biden with Harris has galvanized support in its own backyard, a new sense of crisis among the Republicans would also galvanize their support.

The vote will be tighter than previously thought.



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