President Jokowi ceased to be a member of the PDI-P once he endorsed rival candidate and now president-elect Prabowo instead of the ruling party’s candidate Ganjar Pranowo. Ties between the two date back to 2004 when the party supported Jokowi’s mayoral run in Surakarta, his gubernatorial bid in Jakarta, then the presidential elections in 2014 and 2019.

Members of Jokowi’s family have also met the same fate. Gibran exited the PDI-P as soon as he agreed to run for vice president alongside Prabowo, while Jokowi’s son-in-law, Bobby Nasution, was ousted from the party for supporting Prabowo’s bid for the presidency. Jokowi’s failure to make a clean break from the PDI-P has left many wondering what his next move will be, especially with the next political battle, the regional head elections, just around the corner. As the PDI-P has vowed to win big in the Nov. 27 regional elections, as sweet revenge for its defeat in the presidential election last February, Jokowi may also be pulling the strings to back candidates that will be pitted against the PDI-P.

Although Jokowi has not formally joined another political party, it is safe to assume that candidates endorsed by Prabowo’s large-tent coalition will also be Jokowi’s picks. Most recently, Bobby, who currently serves as Medan mayor, will be contending the North Sumatra gubernatorial race on a Golkar Party ticket. For this election, only two parties meet the threshold that allow them to nominate a candidate on their own, namely Golkar and the PDI-P. For the North Sumatra governorship, the PDI-P is considering nominating Edy Rahmayadi to seek reelection. Edy has no qualms about going against Jokowi’s son-in-law, reasoning that the President should not be intervening in the elections in the first place.

Meanwhile, for the West Java gubernatorial contest, Golkar says party member Ridwan Kamil wants to seek reelection while the Gerindra Party, with whom Golkar is currently in alliance, would prefer Ridwan compete for the Jakarta governorship so that former Purwakarta regent Dedi Mulyadi can run for West Java governor. Golkar chairman Airlangga Hartarto subsequently stated that Jokowi’s interests will influence the party’s nominations for the regional elections, even though he is not an official party member, raising ethical concerns about the President’s involvement in the upcoming political arena.

Jokowi’s role in defining the course of the regional elections will remain pivotal, especially in strategic provinces like Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, East Java and North Sumatra. He can still play the trump card in the selection of candidates, until the registration for regional head election contenders closes on Aug. 19. However, presidential expert staff coordinator Ari Dwipayana was quick to clarify that the President is not directly interfering with the elections as political parties have the sole prerogative of determining the candidates running in the regional head elections anyway.

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Even if Jokowi is able to secure his political influence beyond his term through Prabowo and Gibran, the extent of his impact on the regional elections will be limited without a political party of his own. Moreover, it cannot be just any party but one that can rival the ruling PDI-P.

What we’ve heard

The 2024 regional head elections will see a number of President Jokowi’s picks go up against the PDI-P’s candidates.

Central Java regional police chief Ahmad Lutfi, for one, is Jokowi’s choice for the Central Java governorship. According to several politicians, Lutfi has made preparations by recruiting volunteers and putting up billboards. The PDI-P candidate that will go up against Lutfi will likely be National Public Procurement Agency (LKPP) chairman Hendrar Prihadi, who also previously served as Semarang mayor.

For the Jakarta gubernatorial race, Jokowi has thrown his support behind Ridwan Kamil. The President invited the former West Java governor to the State Palace to ask him to contest the race. According to a source who knew about this meeting, Ridwan agreed on the condition that he receive support from the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). If he decides to run, Ridwan would be up against Anies, who may run on a PDI-P ticket and be paired with either Prasetyo Edi Mardusi or Charles Honoris.

In a meeting with pro-government political party leaders, Jokowi said he wanted to see Anies concede defeat for the second time after losing the presidential race in February.

Jokowi also supports Khofifah Indar Parawansa’s bid for reelection in East Java. According to Khofifah’s colleague, Jokowi conveyed his support through Gibran when the two met in Surabaya. Gibran will help Khofifah win the East Java election and in return, Khofifah will declare her support for Jokowi’s youngest son, Kaesang Pangarep, should he decide to contest the Surabaya mayoral election.

On the flipside, it appears the PDI-P will be nominating former Surabaya mayor and Social Affairs Minister Tri Rismaharini for the East Java governorship. “The PDI-P will likely partner with the PKB,” said Khofifah’s colleague.

Meanwhile, Jokowi has left the Gerindra Party and the Advanced Indonesia Coalition to determine who will run for West Java governor.

Disclaimer

This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access the latest edition of Tenggara Backgrounder to read the articles listed below:

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