Amid freezing temperatures, the southern part of the Kashmir valley witnessed a rare phenomenon and unusual rise in the surface temperature between January 2-4 by almost 10°Celsius.
Data collected by the Islamic University of Science & Technology (IUST) has suggested that a few areas, which are home to glaciers feeding Kashmir in summers, saw “a rapid increase in temperature and significant snowmelt on the afternoon of January 4”. The figures recorded a surface temperature jump from -9°C on January 1 to around 13°C by January 4 in Daksum in Anantnag district. Similarly, Hirpora in Shopian district saw a rise from -9°C to around 10°C by January 4.
Prof. Shakil Ahmad Romshoo, Vice-Chancellor of the IUST and Earth Scientist, termed the phenomena as “warm-air advection”, which began on January 2 and peaked on January 4.
“We don’t have long-term data to determine whether such a temperature change over 2–3 days due to warm-air advection is normal. However, it is a natural phenomenon in Kashmir that has been observed in the past,” Mr. Romshoo, told The Hindu, in an interview.
Explaining the phenomenon, Mr. Romshoo said the rise in surface temperature was driven by the transport of air masses from regions of higher temperatures to lower temperatures. “This particular event appears to have been caused by southeasterly winds, as areas along the Pir Panjal range, which are the first to come into direct contact with these winds, showed significant temperature increases between January 2 and January 5,” Mr. Romshoo said.
This process, where atmospheric motion transports warm air from a high-temperature region to a colder one (associated with westerlies, easterlies, and other air mass transport), leads to a steady rise in temperatures as the warmer air displaces the colder air, the scientist said. “The role of cloud cover, longwave radiation, and turbulent heat flux further contributed to the localized warming observed in the region,” he added.
He said it has definitely enhanced snow melting of glaciers, “but it is unlikely to significantly impact glacier melt, as the glaciers are currently covered by a thick blanket of snow”.
A study suggested that a total of 324 major glacial lakes existed in the Valley’s upper Jhelum basin and the majority of them were located in the Sindh in central Kashmir and Lidder catchments in south Kashmir. To a question on the likely impact of the phenomenon on these glaciers, Mr. Romshoo said, “This specific event is not a major concern. However, over the past decade, we have observed significantly higher temperatures in the Kashmir region during February and March compared to the long-term average [coincident with heatwaves in South Asia]“.
He warned that these elevated temperatures reduce snow accumulation and consequently accelerate glacier melt in the Indian Himalayas. “This trend has contributed to unprecedented glacier melting in the Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh Himalayas over the last 4–5 years,” he added.
However, he ruled out any impact of the recent phenomenon on water discharge in summers in Kashmir. “While temperature rise may have enhanced the melting of recent snowfall, it is unlikely to have long-term impacts on water supplies in the region,” he said.
This process, where atmospheric motion transports warm air from a high-temperature region to a colder one (associated with westerlies, easterlies and other air mass transport), leads to a steady rise in temperatures as the warmer air displaces the colder air. The role of cloud cover, longwave radiation, and turbulent heat flux further contributed to the localized warming observed in the region.
According to a study, which also was co-authored by Mr. Romshoo, the glaciers in Kashmir have reduced from 101.73 square km in 1980 to 72.41 square km by 2018, showing a recession of 29.32 square km during the period (28.82%). The observed glacier loss is 0.77 square km, higher compared to the other Himalayan regions. The findings suggest that the increase in temperature and decline in winter solid precipitation have resulted in the glacier recession with the consequent depletion of the stream flows which, if continued in the future, would adversely affect the economy in the region.
Published - January 06, 2025 07:49 pm IST
