Rooks: 'America the United' still a distant goal

America was a divided nation going into the election and may be more divided coming out.

Donald Trump never claimed to be a “uniter,” and his stunning win means that new political battle lines are already forming.

Despite that one clear result, a lot remains uncertain, a result of the preference of western states to vote by mail, culminating in California’s new law sending ballots to every registered voter.

Those systems mean it may be weeks before it’s determined who controls the U.S. House of Representatives, where a handful of close races could make Hakeem Jeffries a Democratic speaker, or leave the job in the hands of Mike Johnson, who’s held it just a year after his Republican predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, was deposed by own caucus.

Will the second Trump administration resemble the “trifecta” he held from 2017-19, or the end of his first term, when Democrats retook the House majority and the GOP legislative agenda ground to a halt?

A similar situation could be emerging in Maine, where Democrats have retained control of the state Senate with at least 19 seats but the House is, as of this writing, a tossup.

In the Senate, Democrats started from a strong position, with 22 seats in the 35-member chamber. They appear to have lost two, District 1 in northern Aroostook County that was held by term-limited Senate President Troy Jackson, and the Waterville-area District 16, where Scott Cyrway, though facing a strong challenge from Nathaniel White, looks set to return to the Senate after one term in the House.

Other tight contests include Augusta-area District 15, where two House veterans, Democrat Raegan Larochelle and Republican Dick Bradstreet, faced off. And in District 8, Mike Tipping, a first-term Democrat, held a narrow election-night lead.

For those frustrated by the lack of early results, Maine’s informal system of reporting is responsible. In many small towns, election officials go home after counting ballots, under no obligation to field inquiries until the next day.

The House may take a while to sort out. A handful of incumbents lost seats but, as usual, it was in open races where most potential changes occurred. We may even have to wait for recounts.

If Republicans do prevail, it would mark a major shift. Since Democrat John Martin was elected speaker in 1974, Democrats have had a House majority the entire half century except for one term, 2010-2012, when Republican Gov. Paul LePage swept in a short-lived majority.

So it was ironic that Martin, attempting a comeback for what would have been his 28th legislative term – by far a record – lost his bid to return one more time.

Taking the speaker’s gavel could be the free-wheeling Billy Bob Faulkingham of Winter Harbor, current Republican Leader, a lobsterman who survived the sinking of his boat while pulling traps in the teeth of a hurricane.

Or it could be one of two Democrats: Kristen Cloutier of Lewiston, now assistant majority leader, or Ryan Fecteau of Biddeford, attempting a comeback after serving as speaker from 2020-2022. There are others in the race, though their chances seem slim.

The overarching presence for the Legislature will continue to be Gov. Janet Mills, entering her last two years, who has dominated the Democratic caucus and won’t likely give much ground even to a Republican speaker.

Nationally, Trump will be the only president to serve non-consecutive terms besides Democrat Grover Cleveland, who was elected in 1884, lost in 1888, and won again in 1892, taking the popular vote all three times – not a feat Trump can claim.

The late 19th and early 21st centuries seem vastly different, but there are echoes. Like the present, the post-Reconstruction period was fiercely competitive, with wild swings in control of Congress, and one-term presidencies more the rule than the exception.

Cleveland’s second term was not a success; over almost before it started. The Panic of 1893, a severe recession, began even before he took office.

He’d initially been elected in 1884 as a “man of integrity,” contrasting sharply with Republican James G. Blaine, “the continental liar from the State of Maine” – a charge that stuck.

Trump will not carry Cleveland’s reputation into office, but he will have a Senate likely to confirm his appointees, and a compliant Supreme Court that’s already conveyed a near-total, extra-constitutional grant of immunity from any lingering criminal charges.

Still, the convulsions of the pandemic, and wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, were world-wide shocks few anticipated – and that’s just the last four years.

All we can be sure of is that the next four years are likely again to defy our expectations.

Douglas Rooks has been a Maine editor, columnist and reporter for 40 years. He is the author of four books, most recently a biography of U.S. Chief Justice Melville Fuller, and welcomes comment at [email protected]