Project Management

A Managerial Approach

Scheduling

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A schedule is the conversion of a project action plan into an operating timetable It serves as the basis for monitoring and controlling project activity Taken together with the plan and budget, it is probably the major tool for the management of projects

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In a project environment, the scheduling function is more important than it would be in an ongoing operation Projects lack the continuity of day-today operations and often present much more complex problems of coordination

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The basic approach of all scheduling techniques is to form a network of activity and event relationships This network should graphically portray the sequential relations between the tasks in a project Tasks that must precede or follow other tasks are then clearly identified, in time as well as function

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Such networks are a powerful tool for planning and controlling a project and have the following benefits:
It is a consistent framework for planning, scheduling, monitoring, and controlling the project It illustrates the interdependence of all tasks, work packages, and work elements It denotes the times when specific individuals must be available for work on a given task

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Network benefits (cont.):

It aids in ensuring that the proper communications take place between departments and functions It determines an expected project completion date It identifies so-called critical activities that, if delayed, will delay the project completion time It identifies activities with slack that can be delayed for specific periods without penalty

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Network benefits (cont.):

It determines the dates on which tasks may be started or must be started if the project is to stay on schedule It illustrates which tasks must be coordinated to avoid resource timing conflicts It illustrates which tasks may run, or must be run, in parallel to achieve the predetermined project completion date It relieves some interpersonal conflict by clearly showing task dependencies

Network Techniques: PERT and CPM

With the exception of Gantt charts, the most common approach to scheduling is the use of network techniques such as PERT and CPM The Program Evaluation and Review Technique was developed by the U.S. Navy in 1958 The Critical Path Method was developed by DuPont, Inc during the same time period

Network Techniques: PERT and CPM

PERT has been primarily used for research and development projects CPM was designed for construction projects and has been generally embraced by the construction industry The two methods are quite similar and are often combined for educational presentation

Terminology

Activity - A specific task or set of tasks that are required by the project, use up resources, and take time to complete Event - The result of completing one or more activities. An identifiable end state occurring at a particular time. Events use no resources. Network - The combination of all activities and events define the project and the activity precedence relationships

Terminology
Path - The series of connected activities (or intermediate events) between any two events in a network Critical - Activities, events, or paths which, if delayed, will delay the completion of the project. A projects critical path is understood to mean that sequence of critical activities that connect the projects start event to its finish event

Terminology

An activity can be in any of these conditions:

It may have a successor(s) but no predecessor(s) - starts a network It may have a predecessor(s) but no successor(s) - ends a network It may have both predecessor(s) and successor(s) - in the middle of a network

The interconnections depend on the technological relationships described in the action plan

Drawing Networks

Activity-on-Arrow (AOA) networks use arrows to represent activities while nodes stand for events Activity-on-Node (AON) networks use nodes to represent activities with arrows to show precedence relationships The choice between AOA and AON representation is largely a matter of personal preference

Drawing Networks

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AON ( Activity on Node) format

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AOA (Activity on Arrow) network

Exercise1 Draw the network diagram

Task a b c d Precedence a b Time 5 days 4 days 6 days 2 days

e
f

b
c,d

5 days
8 days

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a, b, c precede activity d but only a and b precede e.

Exercise 2

2 A 10 1 B 7

C 5 7 D

F 3 6 G5

E 11

Find the critical path. How long will it take to complete a project?

Exercise 3
Activity AB AC AD DC CB DE CF BF IJ CE EF TE 1 3 3 4 3 8 2 4 2 6 5 FG FH EH GH EJ GI 8 HJ 10 11 1 9 3 6

Draw the PERT diagram Find the critical path

Find the completion time.

B 1 3

10 17

28 28

36 41

14
10

9 4 A 0 0 3 C 7 7 2 F 18 18 11 1 4 3 D 3 3 6 8 E 13 13 5 3 H 37 37

2 6 J 43 43

The critical path is A,D,C,E,F,G,H,J. The completion time is 43 days.

ES=Early Start Time EF=Early Finish Time LS=Late Start time LF=Late finish time Slack=LS-ES Critical Path-

ES

Duration

EF

Activity
LS Slack All activities on the critical path have zero slack time. LF

Exercise 4

D7 G5 A8 Start C3 E6 end

B10 WHAT IS THE CRITICAL PATH?

F7

H3

HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE TO COMPLETE THE PROJECT?

Start

Finish

Legend

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Obtaining time estimates(PERT)

3 time values are obtained for each activity:

Optimistic time(a) , most likely time (m) & pessimistic time(b).

Estimated Activity Completion Time-

Select a in such a way that the actual time required by the activity is a or greater about 99% of the time.
Select b in such a way that the actual time required is b or lesser 99% of the time. The expected time TE is found by TE= (a+4m+b)/6

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TYPICAL SITUATIONS CERTAINTY a=m=b or a=m or b=m ( extreme)

Expected Time, TE= (a+4m+b)/6

((b a) / 6)
2

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20 a20 0 20
0 20 b20 1 21 0 10 c10 4 14

20 35 15d 20 35
20 30

e10
25
20

35 43 j8 35 43 END

35
34

START

f14 29 43 20 24 g4 21 25 10 21 h11 14 25 24 42 i18 25 43

THE AON NETWORK

THERE ARE 8 ACTIVITY PATHS LEADING TO EVENT 7

a-d-j= 20+15+8=43 days

b-f=20+14=34 days c-h-i=10+11+18=39days c-f =10+0+14= 24days c-g-i = 10+0+4+18 =32 days

b-e-j=20+10+8=38 days
b-g-i=20+4+18=42 days c-e-j=10+10+8=28 days

The longest of these paths is a-d-j using 43 days, which means that 43 days is the shortest time in which the entire network can be completed. THIS IS CALLED CRITICAL TIME OF THE NETWORK AND a-d-j IS THE CRITICAL PATH, usually shown as a heavy line.

ACTIVITY a b c

LST 0 1 4

EST 0 0 0

SLACK 0 1 4

d
e f g h

20
25 29 21 14

20
20 20 20 10

0
5 9 1 4

i
j

25
35

24
35

1
0

Uncertainty of project completion time

The network gives you the critical path & critical time.
What is the probability that the project will be completed within that stipulated time projection?

Assume that the PM has promised to complete the project in 50 days .WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF MEETING THE DEADLINE?

We find the answer by calculating Z, where

Z (D ) /

D =the desired project completion time=50

=the critical time of the project=43

2 =the variance of the critical path(sum of the variances
of activities on critical path)=33 Z = the no. of standard deviations of a normal distribution

Hence Z comes out to be =1.22

Referring to the table of AREAS UNDER THE STANDARDISED NORMAL CURVE , the area corresponding to Z=1.22 is 0.8888 Implies that the probability that the project will be completed in 50 days is 0.8888 or almost 89%, which is likelihood that we will complete the critical path of our sample project within 50 days of time started.

43 Time (days)

50

AREA= PROB. = 0.8888 Probability distribution of project completion times.

What deadline is consistent with .95 probability of on-time completion?

We locate .95 on the table. The z value associated with .95 is 1.645.(The values in the table are not strictly linear, so our extrapolation is approximate). We know that the critical time is 43 days. Solving the equation for D, D=43+5.745(1.645) D=52.45 days. Thus, there is a 95% chance of finishing the path a-d-j in 52.45 days.

As D approaches the critical time, z gets smaller, approaching zero. For z=0, as per the table, the chance for on time completion is 50-50. The managerial implications are clear If the PM wants a reasonable chance of meeting a project deadline, there must be some slack in the project schedule.

When preparing a project budget, it is proper to introduce some allowance for contingencies. The same principal holds for preparing a project schedule. The allowance for contingencies in a schedule is network slack.

Let us examine a non-critical path c-hi(39 days). The variance=37.8(slightly less than variance of critical path) Z=1.79 The result is that there is 96% chance for this non critical path to allow the project to be on time.

Gantt Charts

The Gantt chart shows planned and actual progress for a number of tasks displayed against a horizontal time scale It is an effective and easy-to-read method of indicating the actual current status for each set of tasks compared to the planned progress for each item of the set It can be helpful in expediting, sequencing, and reallocating resources among tasks Gantt charts usually do not show technical dependencies

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Gantt Charts

There are several advantages to the use of Gantt charts:

Even though they may contain a great deal of information, they are easily understood While they may require frequent updating, they are easy to maintain Gantt charts provide a clear picture of the current state of a project They are easy to construct

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