Project Risk Management
Project Risk Management
Section 1
Risk Management Planning Risk Identification Qualitative Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk Analysis Risk Response Planning Risk Monitoring and Control
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Uncertainty Corporate management has the responsibility to make appropriate decisions that will lead the organization to a successful destiny.
Such decisions should be taken in an environment of total certainty wherein all the necessary information is available for the right decision. Under certainty, the outcome can be predicted with a high degree of confidence.
In reality, most decisions are taken without complete information, and therefore give rise to some degree of uncertainty in the outcome. Uncertainties do not necessary imply bad unknowns.
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Known Risks
Known risks are those that have been identified and analyzed. It may be possible to plan for known risks..
Unknown Risks
Unknown risks cannot be managed Project managers may address them by applying a general contingency plan, based on past experience with similar projects.
Threats and Opportunities Organizations perceive risk as: Threats to project success Opportunities to enhance chances of project success Risks that are threats to the project may be accepted if the risk is in balance with the reward that may be gained by taking the risk.
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Project Risk Management Overview Risk Management Planning Risk Identification Qualitative Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk Analysis Risk Response Planning Risk Monitoring and Control
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Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets Planning Meetings and Analysis Risk Management Plan
Outputs
Risk Register
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Outputs
Organizational Process Assets Project Scope Statement Risk Management Plan Risk Register
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Outputs
Organizational Process Assets Project Scope Statement Risk Management Plan Risk Register Project Management Plan
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Outputs
Risk Register (Updates) Project Management Plan (Updates) Risk-Related Contractual Agreements
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Outputs
Risk Register (Updates) Requested Changes Recommended Corrective Actions Recommended Preventive Actions Organizational Process Assets (Updates) Project Management Plan (Updates)
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Risk Management Plan Risk Register Approved Change Requests Work Performance Information Performance Reports
Risk Management Planning is the process of deciding how to approach and conduct the risk management activities for a project.
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Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets Planning Meetings and Analysis Risk Management Plan
A.
Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets Project Scope Statement Project Management Plan
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B.1 Planning Meetings and Analysis (cont.) General organizational templates for risk categories and definitions of terms will be tailored to the specific project such as: Levels of risk Probability by type of risk Impact by type of objectives Probability and impact matrix The outputs of these activities will be summarized in the risk management plan.
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C.
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C.1 Risk Management Plan The risk management plan describes how risk management will be structured and performed on the project. It becomes a subset of the project management plan.
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Risk Identification determines which risks might affect the project and documents their characteristics.
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Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets Project Scope Statement Risk Management Plan Project Management Plan
Documentation Reviews Information Gathering Techniques Checklist Analysis Assumptions Analysis Diagramming Techniques
Risk Register
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A.
Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets Project Scope Statement Risk Management Plan Project Management Plan
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B.
Documentation Reviews Information Gathering Techniques Checklist Analysis Assumptions Analysis Diagramming Techniques
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B.5 Diagramming Techniques Cause-and-effect diagrams (Ishikawa or fishbone diagrams) System or process flow charts Influence diagrams
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C.
Risk Register
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C.1 Risk Register (cont.) At this stage , the risk register should contain the following information: List of identified risks List of potential responses Root causes of risk
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(SWOT)
When used in Risk Identification, SWOT analysis involves examining the project from each of the SWOT perspectives in order to increase the breadth of risks considered.
Depending upon the magnitude of impact to the organization, SWOT analysis for the project can parallel SWOT analysis as applied to strategic planning for the organization and will use many of the same elements.
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1.
a)
b) c) d) e)
The Competition
Who are your main competitors? Can you expect other competitors to enter the market in the next three years?
How are you different from your competition? What makes you unique? What does your competition do better than you? What is your competition doing now, or planning to do, that could affect your business? In what ways can you neutralize the competition? (think of product development, price, delivery, service, technological advances, geography, emerging markets, etc)
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2. Markets
a) What market segments do you feel secure in? What do you need to do to retain them?
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Qualitative Risk Analysis includes methods for prioritizing the identified risks for further action, such as Quantitative Risk Analysis or Risk Response Planning
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Organizational Process Assets Project Scope Statement Risk Management Plan Risk Register
Risk Probability and Impact Assessment Probability and Impact Matrix Risk Data Quality Assessment Risk Categorization Risk Urgency Assessment
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A.
Organizational Process Assets Project Scope Statement Risk Management Plan Risk Register
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Risk Probability and Impact Assessment Probability and Impact Matrix Risk Data Quality Assessment Risk Categorization Risk Urgency Assessment
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Risk probability assessment investigates the likelihood that each specific risk will occur. Risk impact assessment investigates the potential effect on a project objective such as time, cost, scope, or quality, including both negative effects for threats and positive effects for opportunities.
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Process Flow
Probability and impact are assessed for each identified risk. Risks can be assessed in interviews or meetings with participants selected for their familiarity with the risk categories on the agenda. Project team members and, perhaps, knowledgeable persons from outside the project, are included. Expert judgment is required, since there may be little information on risks from the organizations database of past projects. An experienced facilitator may lead the discussion, since the participants may have little experience with risk assessment.
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B.5 Risk Urgency Assessment Risks requiring near-term responses may be considered more urgent to address. Indicators of priority can include time to affect a risk response, symptoms and warning signs, and the risk rating.
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C.
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C.1 Risk Register (Updates) The risk register is initiated during the Risk Identification process. The risk register is updated with information from Qualitative Risk Analysis and the updated risk register is included in the project management plan.
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Section 5 Quantitative Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk Analysis is performed on risks that have been prioritized by the Qualitative Risk Analysis process as potentially and substantially impacting the projects competing demands. The Quantitative Risk Analysis process analyzes the effect of those risk events and assigns a numerical rating to those risks. It also presents a quantitative approach to making decisions in the presence of uncertainty.
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Organizational Process Assets Project Scope Statement Risk Management Plan Risk Register Project Management Plan
Data Gathering and Representation Techniques Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques Risk Register (Updates)
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A.
Organizational Process Assets Project Scope Statement Risk Management Plan Risk Register Project Management Plan
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Data Gathering and Representation Techniques Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques
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Interviewing Interviewing techniques are used to quantify the probability and impact of risks on project objectives. The information needed depends upon the type of probability distributions that will be used.
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Probability distributions
Continuous probability distributions represent the uncertainty in values, such as durations of schedule activities and costs of project components. Discrete distributions can be used to represent uncertain events, such as the outcome of a test or a possible scenario in a decision tree. Continuous Distribution Examples: Asymmetrical distributions Uniform distributions
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Expert judgment Subject matter experts internal or external to the organization, such as engineering or statistical experts, validate data and techniques.
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Sensitivity analysis Expected monetary value analysis Decision tree analysis Modeling and simulation
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Sensitivity analysis Sensitivity analysis helps to determine which risks have the most potential impact on the project. It examines the extent to which the uncertainty of each project element affects the objective being examined when all other uncertain elements are held at their baseline values.
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Modeling and simulation A project simulation uses a model that translates the uncertainties specified at a detailed level of the project into their potential impact on project objectives. Simulations are typically performed using the Monte Carlo technique.
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C.
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Risk Register (Updates) The risk register is initiated in the Risk Identification process and updated in Qualitative Risk Analysis. It is further updated in Quantitative Risk Analysis. The risk register is a component of the project management plan.
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Risk Register (Updates) (cont.) Updates include the following main components: Probabilistic analysis of the project Probability of achieving cost and time objectives Prioritized list of quantified risks Trends in quantitative risk analysis results
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Risk Response Planning is the process of developing options, and determining actions to enhance opportunities and reduce threats to the projects objectives.
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Outputs
Risk Register (Updates) Project Management Plan (Updates) Risk-Related Contractual Agreements
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A.
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Strategies for Negative Risks or Threats Strategies for Positive Risks or Opportunities Strategy for Both Threats and Opportunities Contingent Response Strategy
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Risk Avoidance
Risk avoidance involves changing the project management plan to: Eliminate the threat posed by an adverse risk Isolate the project objectives from the risks impact Relax the objective that is in jeopardy, such as extending the schedule or reducing scope.
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Risk Transference
Risk transference requires shifting the negative impact of a threat, along with ownership of the response, to a third party. Transferring the risk simply gives another party responsibility for its management; it does not eliminate it. Transferring liability for risk is most effective in dealing with financial risk exposure. Risk transference nearly always involves payment of a risk premium to the party taking on the risk.
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Risk Mitigation Risk mitigation implies a reduction in the probability and/or impact of an adverse risk event to an acceptable threshold. Taking early action to reduce the probability and/or impact of a risk occurring on the project is often more effective than trying to repair the damage after the risk has occurred.
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Risk Exploiting
This strategy may be selected for risks with positive impacts where the organization wishes to ensure that the opportunity is realized. This strategy seeks to eliminate the uncertainty associated with a particular upside risk by making the opportunity definitely happen. Directly exploiting responses include assigning more talented resources to the project to reduce the time to completion, or to provide better quality than originally planned.
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Risk Sharing Sharing a positive risk involves allocating ownership to a third party who is best able to capture the opportunity for the benefit of the project.
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Risk Enhancing This strategy modifies the size of an opportunity by increasing probability and/or positive impacts, and by identifying and maximizing key drivers of these positiveimpact risks.
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B.3 Strategy for Both Threats and Opportunities Acceptance. A strategy that is adopted because it is seldom possible to eliminate all risk from a project. This strategy indicates that the project team has decided not to change the project management plan to deal with a risk, or is unable to identify any other suitable response strategy.
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C.
Risk Register (Updates) Project Management Plan (Updates) Risk-Related Contractual Agreements
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The project management plan is updated as response activities are added. Integrated change control is applied in the Direct and Manage Project Execution process to ensure that agreed-upon actions are implemented. Risk response strategies, once agreed to, must be fed back into the appropriate processes in other Knowledge Areas, including the projects budget and schedule. 89
Contractual agreements, such as agreements for insurance, services, and other items as appropriate, can be prepared to specify each partys responsibility for specific risks, should they occur.
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Section 7: Risk Monitoring and Control Risk Monitoring and Control is the process of: Identifying, analyzing, and planning for newly arising risks Keeping track of the identified risks and those on the watchlist Reanalyzing existing risks, monitoring trigger conditions for contingency plans Monitoring residual risks Reviewing the execution of risk responses while evaluating their effectiveness.
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Other purposes of Risk Monitoring and Control Determining if: Project assumptions are still valid Risk, as assessed, has changed from its prior state, with analysis of trends Proper risk management policies and procedures are being followed Contingency reserves of cost or schedule should be modified in line with the risks of the project.
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Outputs
Risk Register (Updates) Requested Changes Recommended Corrective Actions Recommended Preventive Actions Organizational Process Assets (Updates) Project Management Plan (Updates)
Risk Management Plan Risk Register Approved Change Requests Work Performance Information Performance Reports Risk Reassessment Risk Audits Variance and Trend Analysis Technical Performance Measurement Reserve Analysis Status Meetings
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A.
Risk Management Plan Risk Register Approved Change Requests Work Performance Information Performance Reports
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This plan has key inputs that include the assignment of people, including the risk owners, time, and other resources to project risk management.
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A.2Risk Register
The risk register has key inputs that include: Identified risks and risk owners Agreed-upon risk responses Specific implementation actions Symptoms and warning signs of risk Residual Secondary risks Watchlist of low priority risks Time and cost contingency reserves.
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A.4 Work Performance Information Work performance information, including project deliverables status, corrective actions, and performance reports, are important inputs to Risk Monitoring and Control.
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A.5 Performance Reports Performance reports provide information on project work performance, such as an analysis that may influence the risk management processes.
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Risk Reassessment Risk Audits Variance and Trend Analysis Technical Performance Measurement Reserve Analysis Status Meetings
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B.1 Risk Reassessment Risk Monitoring and Control often requires identification of new risks and reassessment of risks. Project risk reassessments should be regularly scheduled. Project Risk Management should be an agenda item at project team status meetings.
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B.2 Risk Audits Risk audits examine and document the effectiveness of risk responses in dealing with identified risks and their root causes, as well as the effectiveness of the risk management process.
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B.3 Variance and Trend Analysis Trends in the projects execution should be reviewed using performance data. Earned value analysis and other methods of project variance and trend analysis may be used for monitoring overall project performance.
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Technical performance measurement compares technical accomplishments during project execution to the project management plans schedule of technical achievement. Deviation, such as demonstrating more or less functionality than planned at a milestone, can help to forecast the degree of success in achieving the projects scope.
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C.
Risk Register (Updates) Requested Changes Recommended Corrective Actions Recommended Preventive Actions Organizational Process Assets (Updates) Project Management Plan (Updates)
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C.3 Recommended Corrective Actions This includes contingency plans and workaround plans. The latter are responses that were not initially planned, but are required to deal with emerging risks that were previously unidentified or accepted passively. Workarounds should be properly documented. Recommended corrective actions are inputs to the Integrated Change Control process
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Recommended preventive actions are used to bring the project into compliance with the project management plan.
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If the approved change requests have an effect on the risk management processes, then the corresponding component documents of the project management plan are revised and reissued to reflect the approved changes.
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End
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