Crashing PERT networks using

mathematical programming
SUBMITTED BY :
LUBHNA SINGHAL
11ID60R21

NETWORK
PERT
CPM
SCHEDULING
OF ACTIVITIES
Probabilistic activities
Deterministic activities
PERT
The Program (or Project) Evaluation and Review Technique
Analyze the involved tasks in completing a given project,
Identify the minimum time needed to complete the total project.
Developed primarily to simplify the planning and scheduling of
large and complex projects.
Events- marks the start or completion of one or more activities
Activities- the actual performance of a task which consumes time
and requires resources.
optimistic time (O): the minimum possible time required to
accomplish a task
pessimistic time (P): the maximum possible time required to
accomplish a task.
most likely time (M): the best estimate of the time required to
accomplish a task
expected time (TE):
TE = (O + 4M + P) 6
Example
Task ID Task Description Prerequisites
Optimistic
Duration(O)
Most Likely
Duration(M)
Pessimistic
Duration(P)
1
Build internal
components
none 1 2 3
2 Modify roof and floor none 2 3 4
3
Construct collection
stack
1 1 2 3
4
Pour concrete and
install frame
2 2 4 6
5
Build high-
temperature burner
3 1 4 7
6 Install control system 3 1 2 9
7
Install air pollution
device
4, 5 3 4 11
8 Inspection and testing 6, 7 1 2 3
Expected time (Te)=
6
4M P O + +
Expected
time (Te)
2
3
2
4
4
3
5
2
Variance (
2
)=
Variance
(
2
)
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.44
1.00
1.78
1.78
0.11
2
6
|
.
|

\
| O P
2
6
|
.
|

\
| O P
2
6
|
.
|

\
| O P
2
6
|
.
|

\
|
O P
Critical Path Method
Critical Path Method (CPM), is a procedure for using network
analysis to identify those tasks which are on the critical path: ie
where any delay in the completion of these tasks will lengthen the
project timescale, unless action is taken.
For all tasks off the critical path, a degree of tolerance is possible
(eg. late start, late completion,early start, etc.).
Network charts and CPM analysis used to be carried out by hand.
Steps to find critical path.
Draw the network
Find the earliest start (ES) and earliest finish time(EF) by forward pass
Find the latest start (LS) and latest finish time (LF) by backward pass.
Find the slack.
The activities that have zero slack consists of critical activities.

Task ID Prerequisites
Expected
time (Te)
1 none
2
2 none
3
3 1
2
4 2
4
5 3
4
6 3
3
7 4, 5
5
8 6, 7
2
ES
0
0
2
3
4
4
8
13
EF
2
3
4
7
8
7
13
15
LS
0
1
2
4
4
10
8
13
LF
2
4
4
8
8
13
13
15
slack
0
1
0
1
0
6
0
0
Probability of a project to be
completed in a specific time
suppose there are n activities in the critical path whose Te are Te
1
, Te
2
,
Te
3
, .Te
n-1.
and
2
are
2
1
,
2
2
,
2
3
, ..
2
n
,

Te
= Te
i

=
=
n
i
i
1
2
o o
Then the probability of the project to complete in time Ts is
(Z) where Z is given by

o

Te
Ts
Z

=

Task
ID
Prerequisit
es
Expected
time (Te)
Variance
(
2
)
1 none
2 0.11
2 none
3 0.11
3 1
2 0.11
4 2
4 0.44
5 3
4 1.00
6 3
3 1.78
7 4, 5
5 1.78
8 6, 7
2 0.11

Te
=2+2+4+5+2=15

1.76 11 . 0 78 . 1 1 11 . 0 11 . 0 = + + + + = o
70 . 1
1.76
15 12
=

= Z
Then the probability of the project to complete in time 12

=0.446

Network crashing
Crashing
reducing project time by expending additional resources
Crash time
an amount of time an activity is reduced
Crash cost
cost of reducing activity time
Goal
reduce project duration at minimum cost

Time cost relationship
Crashing costs increase as project duration decreases
Indirect costs increase as project duration increases
Reduce project length as long as crashing costs are less than indirect costs
Crashing of activities in critical path
When any activity is crashed some additional money has to be
invested.
So the direct cost will increase
But the indirect cost will decrease as the time get reduced.
When an activity get crashed the pessimistic time get reduced.
Say from P
i
to P
i
.
Money invested will be r
i

So new Te
i
=O
i
+4M
i
+P
i
/6
And new
i
2
=(P
i
-O/6)
2

NOW,


'
Te
= Te
i

=
=
n
i
i
1
2
' ' o o
'
'
o

Te
Ts
Z

=
Direct cost invested in crashing
Let the money invested will be r
i
in crashing of activity i in critical path
So the total amount invested will be-



M= r
1
+ r
2
+ r
3
r
n


Crashing of any activity depends on the amount invested in crashing
Hence the reduction of Te
i
to Te
i
is a function of r
i
.
Te
i
= Te
i
+ (r
i
)

OR Te
i
= Te
i
+ q
i
r
i

i
=
i
+ (r
i
)


The reduction of
i
2
to
i
2
is a function of r
i
.

i
=
i
+ s
i
r
i


qi < 0 is the marginal decrease in the duration of activity per unit increase in investment in the activity
and si < 0 is the marginal decrease in the level of the variance per unit increase in the investment.
si=qi

New Probability of a project to be
completed in a specific time

'
'
o

Te
Ts
Z

=
2 2
3
2
2
2
1
n 2 1
' .......... .......... ' ' '
) ..Te .......... Te Te Te ( 3
n
Ts
Z
o o o o + + +
+ +
=
n n
n
r s r s r s r s
r q Ts
Z
+ + + + + +
+ + + + + +
=
2 2
3
2
2
2
1 1
2
1
n 3 2 2 1 1 1
.......... ..........
) r q ..Te .......... r q Te r q Te Te (
3 3 2
2 2 3 2 2
o o o o
'
Te
=Te
1
+Te
2
+ Te
3.
+Te
n

since
Te
i
= Te
i
+ q
i
r
i


since
since
n n
Te
r s r s r s r s
r q Ts
Z
.......... ..........
) r q .. .......... r q r q (
3 3 2
2 2 3 2 2
2 1 1
2
1
3 1 1
+ + +
+ + + +
=
o

Te
= Te
i

=
=
n
i
i
1
2
o o

=
=
+
+
=
n
i
i i
n
i
i i Te
r s
r q Ts
Z
1
2
1
1
o

Linear formulation

max

=
=
+
+
=
n
i
i i
n
i
i i Te
r s
r q Ts
Z
1
2
1
1
o

M r
n
i
i
<=

=1 Subject to
i i
r r ' 0 < <
r
i
= max limit of investment in the activity i

2
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.17
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.83
1.17
1.33
0.67
1.17
1.00

2
5.00
0.67
0.67
0.83
1.17
1.00
1.50
0.67
1.33
0.33
0.50
1.83
1.00
0.83

2
0.83
0.83
1.17
2.50
2.17
0.50
2.17
1.17
0.83
0.17
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.67
Tas
k ID
(O),(M),(P)
29 26,29,31
30 30,32,35
31 12,14,19
32 23,29,38
33 25,29,38
34 12,14,15
35 22,28,35
36 23,24,30
37 10,11,15
38 23,23,24
39 30,32,36
40 30,35,36
41 30,30,32
42 25,26,29
Expected
time (Te)
28.83333
32.16667
14.5
29.5
29.83333
13.83333
28.16667
24.83333
11.5
23.16667
32.33333
34.33333
30.33333
26.33333
Example
Task
ID
(O),(M),(P)
1 5,12,35
2 2,5,6
3 5.8,9
4 10,12,15
5 2,5,9
6 2,5,8
7 5,9,14
8 5,8,9
9 8,9,16
10 5,6,7
11 12,13,15
12 5,9,16
13 5,8,11
14 12,13
Expected
time (Te)
14.66667
4.666667
7.666667
12.16667
5.166667
5
9.166667
7.666667
10
6
13.16667
9.5
8
15.16667
Task
ID
(O),(M),(P)
15 2,3,5
16 12,14,15
17 12,14,18
18 12,15,18
19 12,15,19
20 15,16,19
21 15,18,19
22 9,10,12
23 12,15,17
24 12,13,19
25 21,22,29
26 15,17.19
27 11,16,18
28 15,19,21
Expected
time (Te)
3.166667
13.83333
14.33333
15
15.16667
16.33333
17.66667
10.16667
14.83333
13.83333
23
17
15.5
18.66667
Expected time (Te)=
6
4M P O + +
Variance (
2
)=
2
6
|
.
|

\
|
O P
CRITICAL ACTIVIY

2
5.00
0.83
1.33
0.83
1.17
0.67
0.67
1.33
0.83
Qi,si

-0.00045
-0.00036
-0.00055
-0.00066
-0.0007
-0.0002
-0.00025
-0.0003
-0.00004
Tas
k ID
(O),(M),(P)
30 30,32,35
32 23,29,38
33 25,29,38
35 22,28,35
36 23,24,30
39 30,32,36
40 30,35,36
41 30,30,32
42 25,26,29
Expected
time (Te)
32.16667
29.5
29.83333
28.16667
24.83333
32.33333
34.33333
30.33333
26.33333
Task
ID
(O),(M),(P)
1 5,12,35
4 10,12,15
9 8,9,16
14 12,13
19 12,15,19
20 15,16,19
21 15,18,19
25 21,22,29
29 26,29,31
Expected
time (Te)
14.66667
12.16667
10
15.16667
15.16667
16.33333
17.66667
23
28.83333
Qi,si

-0.0001
-0.0003
-0.00011
-0.00023
-0.00041
-0.00005
-0.00033
-0.00036
-0.00018

Te
= Te
i
=391.3333

7.28
1
2
= =

=
n
i
i
o o
Qi,Si Value

MAXIMUM AMOUNT
THAT CAN BE INVESTED
FOR ACTIVITY I = ri

ri
5000
1000
3000
2000
1000
1200
200
1800
800
ri

750
3200
2000
1500
1100
2200
500
850
6000
So LP model will be

max
Subject to
=
+ +
+ +
=
) 00004 . 0 .( .......... )......... 0003 . 0 ( ) 0001 . 0 ( ) 2 ^ 28 . 7 (
_ ) 00004 . 0 .( .......... )......... 0003 . 0 ( ) 0001 . 0 ( 33 . 391
42 2 1
42 2 1
r r r
r r r Ts
Z
M r r r r <= + + +
42 9 4 1
... .......... ..........
5000 0
1
< < r
1000 0
4
< < r
3000 0
9
< < r
2000 0
14
< < r
1000 0
19
< < r
200 0
21
< < r
1200 0
20
< < r
1800 0
25
< < r
800 0
29
< < r
750 0
30
< < r
3200 0
32
< < r
2000 0
33
< < r
1500 0
35
< < r
1100 0
36
< < r
2200 0
39
< < r
500 0
40
< < r
850 0
41
< < r
6000 0
42
< < r
Answer from the model wiil be

Tas
k ID
(O),(M),(P)
30 30,32,35
32 23,29,38
33 25,29,38
35 22,28,35
36 23,24,30
39 30,32,36
40 30,35,36
41 30,30,32
42 25,26,29
Task
ID
(O),(M),(P)
1 5,12,35
4 10,12,15
9 8,9,16
14 12,13
19 12,15,19
20 15,16,19
21 15,18,19
25 21,22,29
29 26,29,31
P

32
13.2
14
15.24
16.54
18.40
16.62
25.11
30.13
P

32.97
32.08
31.4
29.06
25.38
33.36
35.25
30.47
27.56
ri
5000
1000
3000
2000
1000
1200
200
1800
800
ri

750
3200
2000
1500
1100
2200
500
850
100
CRASHING OF PESSIMISTIC TIME =P
AMOUNT INVESTED IN CRASHING THE
ACTIVITY i=ri