Discrete Probability Distributions

 Random Variables
 Discrete Probability Distributions
 Expected Value and Variance

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 Random Variables

AA random
random variable
variable is
is aa numerical
numerical description
description of
of the
the
outcome
outcome of
of an
an experiment.
experiment.

AA discrete
discrete random
random variable
variable may
may assume
assume either
either aa
finite
finite number
number ofof values
values or
or an
an infinite
infinite sequence
sequence of of
values.
values.

AA continuous
continuous random
random variable
variable may
may assume
assume any
any
numerical
numerical value
value in
in an
an interval
interval or
or collection
collection of
of
intervals.
intervals.
 Example: JSL Appliances

 Discrete random variable with a finite number

of values

Let
Let xx =
= number
number ofof TVs
TVs sold
sold at
at the
the store
store in
in one
one day,
day,
where
where xx can
can take
take on
on 55 values
values (0,
(0, 1,
1, 2,
2, 3,
3, 4)
4)
 Example: JSL Appliances

 Discrete random variable with an infinite

sequence of values

Let
Let xx =
= number
number ofof customers
customers arriving
arriving in
in one
one day,
day,
where
where xx can
can take
take on
on the
the values
values 0, 0, 1,
1, 2,
2, .. .. ..

We can count the customers arriving, but there is n

finite upper limit on the number that might arrive.
 Random Variables

Question Random Variable x Type

Family x = Number of dependents Discrete
size reported on tax return

Distance from x = Distance in miles from Continuous

home to store home to the store site
Own dog x = 1 if own no pet; Discrete
or cat = 2 if own dog(s) only;
= 3 if own cat(s) only;
= 4 if own dog(s) and cat(s)
 Discrete Probability Distributions

The
The probability
probability distribution
distribution for
for aa random
random variable
variable
describes
describes how
how probabilities
probabilities are
are distributed
distributed over
over
the
the values
values of
of the
the random
random variable.
variable.

We
We can
can describe
describe aa discrete
discrete probability
probability distribution
distribution
with
with aa table,
table, graph,
graph, or
or equation.
equation.
 Discrete Probability Distributions

The
The probability
probability distribution
distribution is
is defined
defined by by aa
probability
probability function,
function, denoted
denoted by by f(x),
f(x), which
which provides
provides
the
the probability
probability for
for each
each value
value of of the
the random
random variable
variabl

The
The required
required conditions
conditions for
for aa discrete
discrete probability
probability
function
function are:
are:
f(x) > 0

f(x) = 1
 Discrete Probability Distributions

 Using past data on TV sales, …

 a tabular representation of the probability
distribution for TV sales was developed.

Number 80/200
Units Sold of Days x f(x)
0 80 0 .40
1 50 1 .25
2 40 2 .20
3 10 3 .05
4 20 4 .10
200 1.00
 Discrete Probability Distributions

 Graphical Representation of Probability

Distribution
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.40
Probability

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.20
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0 1 2 3 4
Values of Random Variable x (TV sales)
 Expected Value and Variance

The
The expected
expected value,
value, oror mean,
mean, ofof aa random
random variable
variable
is
is aa measure
measure of
of its
its central
central location.
location.
E(x) =  = xf(x)

The
The variance
variance summarizes
summarizes the
the variability
variability in
in the
the
values
values of
of aa random
random variable.
variable.
Var(x) =  2
= (x - )2f(x)

The
The standard deviation, ,, is
standard deviation, is defined
defined as
as the
the positive
positive
square
square root
root of
of the
the variance.
variance.
 Expected Value and Variance

 Expected Value

x f(x) xf(x)
0 .40 .00
1 .25 .25
2 .20 .40
3 .05 .15
4 .10 .40
E(x) = 1.20

expected number of
TVs sold in a day
 Expected Value and Variance
 Variance and Standard Deviation
E(x) = 1.20

x x- (x - )2 f(x) (x - )2f(x)

0 -1.2 1.44 .40 .576
1 -0.2 0.04 .25 .010
2 0.8 0.64 .20 .128
3 1.8 3.24 .05 .162
TVs
4 2.8 7.84 .10 .784 square
Variance of daily sales = s 2
= 1.660 d
Standard deviation of daily sales = 1.2884 TVs
 Binomial Distribution

 Four Properties of a Binomial Experiment

1.
1. The
The experiment
experiment consists
consists of
of aa sequence
sequence of
of nn
identical
identical trials.
trials.

2.
2. Two
Two outcomes,
outcomes, success
success and
and failure,
failure, are
are possible
possible
on
on each
each trial.
trial.

3.
3. The
The probability
probability of
of aa success,
success, denoted
denoted by
by p,
p, does
does
not
not change
change from
from trial
trial to
to trial.
trial.
stationarit
4. The trials are independent. y
4. The trials are independent.
assumptio
n
 Binomial Distribution

Our
Our interest
interest is
is in
in the
the number
number of
of successes
successes
occurring
occurring in
in the
the nn trials.
trials.

We
We let
let xx denote
denote thethe number
number of
of successes
successes
occurring
occurring inin the
the nn trials.
trials.
 Binomial Distribution

 Binomial Probability Function

n!
f (x)  px (1 p)(n x)
x!(n  x)!

where:
f(x) = the probability of x successes in n trials
n = the number of trials
p = the probability of success on any one trial
 Binomial Distribution

 Binomial Probability Function

n!
f (x)  px (1  p)(n x)
x!(n  x)!

n!
px (1 p)(n x)
x!(n  x)!
Probability
Probability of
of aa particular
particular
Number of experimental
Number of experimental sequence of trial outcomes
outcomes providing exactly sequence of trial outcomes
outcomes providing exactly with x successes in n trials
xx successes in n trials with x successes in n trials
successes in n trials
 Binomial Distribution

 Example: Evans Electronics

Evans is concerned about a low retention
rate for employees. In recent years,
management has seen a turnover of 10% of
the hourly employees annually. Thus, for any
hourly employee chosen at random,
management estimates a probability of 0.1
that the person will not be with the company
next year.
 Binomial Distribution

 Using the Binomial Probability Function

Choosing 3 hourly employees at random,
what is the probability that 1 of them will leave
the company this year?

Let: p = .10, n = 3, x = 1
n!
f ( x)  p x (1  p ) (n  x )
x !( n  x )!
3!
f (1)  (0.1)1(0.9)2 3(.1)(.81)  .243
1!(3  1)!
 Binomial Distribution

 Using Tables of Binomial Probabilities

p
n x .05 .10 .15 .20 .25 .30 .35 .40 .45 .50
3 0 .8574 .7290 .6141 .5120 .4219 .3430 .2746 .2160 .1664 .1250
1 .1354 .2430 .3251 .3840 .4219 .4410 .4436 .4320 .4084 .3750
2 .0071 .0270 .0574 .0960 .1406 .1890 .2389 .2880 .3341 .3750
3 .0001 .0010 .0034 .0080 .0156 .0270 .0429 .0640 .0911 .1250
 Binomial Distribution

 Expected Value

E(x) =  = np
 Variance
Var(x) =  2
= np(1 - p)

 Standard Deviation

  np(1  p)
 Binomial Distribution

 Expected Value

E(x) =  = 3(.1) = .3 employees out of 3

 Variance

Var(x) =  2
= 3(.1)(.9) = .27

 Standard Deviation

  3(.1)(.9)  .52 employees