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MATH – 361
Introduction to Probability and Statistics

Introduction to Probability

Reference: Ch # 2, Sec 2.1, Text Book

No. of Slides: 43
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 Desired Learning Objectives

After this lecture students will be able to

 Understand basic concept of Probability

 Understand different laws of Probability

 Apply these measures in the fields of engineering particularly

while conducting technical investigations

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 Probability

Definition

 Probability is a number that reflects a chance or likelihood that

a particular event will occur
 Probability always has a value from 0 and 1

 0 indicates that there is no chance that event will occur

 1 indicates that an event is certain to occur

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 Probability

Important Terms
 Event
 Experiment
 Equally likely events
 Random experiment
 Exhaustive events
 Trial
 Favorable events
 Sample space

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 Probability : Experiment

 It is a well defined operation or procedure that results in one or more

possible outcomes

 Outcome: The result of an experiment

 Experiment : For a die rolled there are total of six possible outcomes

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 Probability : Random Experiment

Definition
 An experiment which produces different results even though it is
repeated a large number of times under essentially similar
conditions

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 Probability : Random Experiment

Counting Techniques

 For experiments with large number of outcomes the following

methods are used to count the number of outcomes of the
experiment

 Permutations
 Combinations

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 Probability : Counting Techniques

 Permutation: The arrangements of n objects in a specific order

using r objects at a time is called permutation of n objects taking r
objects at a time

 Combinations: A selection of distinct objects without regard to

order i.e. the order or arrangement is not important

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 Permutation – Combination
Example : How many three digit numbers can be formed from the digits
1, 2, 4, 5, and 9 when each digit is used only once?

Solution

Example : In how many ways can an instructor select five students for a
group project out of an class of 12?

Solution

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Probability : Counting Techniques

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 Probability : Important Terms

 Probability – Measure of the likelihood that an event will occur in a

Random Experiment

 Probability is quantified as a number between 0 and 1, where,

loosely speaking, 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty

 The higher the probability of an event, the more likely it is that the
event will occur

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 Probability : Important Terms

 Sample Space - A set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is

called a sample space and is denoted by S

 Sample Points - The elements of sample space are called sample

points. The number of sample points in sample space is denoted by
n(S)

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 Probability : Sample Space
The Sample Space is the collection of all possible outcomes
Example
Experiment Sample Space Sample Points

1. A coin is tossed S = {Head, Tail} n(S) = 2

2. Two coins are tossed S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} n(S) = 4
3. Two dice are tossed S = { (1,1),(1,2),….,(6,6)}, n(S) = 36
4. A coin and a dice are tossed S = { (H,1),.,(H,6), (T,1),.,(T,6}, n(S) = 12

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 Probability : Important Terms

Event
A subset of sample space is called an event and is denoted by a
capital English alphabet

Types of events
 Simple event
 Compound event
 Null event
 Sure event
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 Probability : Types of Events

 Simple Event – Event that contains only one outcome

 Compound Event – Event that contains more than one outcomes

 Null Event - The subset containing no outcomes

 Sure Event or a Certain Event - The subset containing all outcomes

Number of possible events = 2n, where n = number of outcomes in S

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 Probability

Mathematical Definition: Let S be the sample space and A is any

event. Then the probability of event A is

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
𝑃 ( 𝐴) =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

𝑛( 𝐴)
𝑃 ( 𝐴) =
𝑛(𝑆)

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 Probability
Example
If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards, find the
probability that
(i) the card is a red card (ii) the card is a 10
Solution
The total number of possible outcomes are 13+13+13+13 = 52
Let A represent the event that the card drawn is a red card
Number of outcomes favorable to the event A is 26

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Probability : Example

Using values we get

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 Probability : Example

Part – II

 Let B denote the event that the card drawn is a 10

 Then the number of outcomes favorable to B is 4 as there are

four 10’s in a deck of cards
𝑛 ( 𝐵) 4 1
𝑃 ( 𝐵 )= = =
𝑛 ( 𝑆 ) 52 13

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 Probability
Example
A fair coin is tossed three times. What is the probability that at least one
head appears?

Solution

The sample space for this experiment is

S= {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH,HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}

Total number of sample points = 8

i.e. n(S) = 8 21
 Probability : Example

Let A denote the event that at least one head appears

Then A = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH}

Implies n(A) = 7

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 Probability
Example: Two dice are tossed. What is the probability that the sum of the dots on
the top face of both the dice is 9.

Solution: The possibility space is

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 Laws of Probability

 Mutually Exclusive(disjoint) Events

 Not Mutually Exclusive Events

 Independent Events

 Dependent Events

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 Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events A and B of a single experiment are said to be mutually

exclusive or disjoint if and only if they cannot both occur at the same
time i.e. they have no points in common
And the probability of this event is given as

𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ) =𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) + 𝑃 ( 𝐵 )

𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩)=𝟎
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 Mutually Exclusive Events : Example

 When we toss a coin, we get either a head or a tail, but not both at
the same time. The two events head and tail are therefore mutually
exclusive

 When a die is rolled, the events ‘even number’ and ‘odd number’
are mutually exclusive as we can get either an even number or an
odd number in one throw, not both at the same time

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 Not Mutually Exclusive Events

 If the two events can occur at the same time, they are not
mutually exclusive. Probability of this such event is given as

𝑃 ( 𝐴∪ 𝐵 ) =𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) + 𝑃 ( 𝐵 ) − 𝑃 ( 𝐴∩ 𝐵)

If we draw a card from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards, it can be both a

king and a diamond. Therefore, kings and diamonds are not mutually exclusive

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 Addition Rule

General Addition Rule

If A & B are mutually exclusive, then

as there is no common point so for mutually exclusive events

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 Addition Rule
S A B
Example : Suppose there are two sets A & B of
2,4,6,8,10 1,3,5,7,9
first five even and odd numbers respectively as
shown. Find the probability of getting A or B
form a random pick of numbers 11,12,13,14,15

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 Addition Rule
S A B
Example : Suppose there are two sets A & B of
2,4,6,8,10 1,3,5,7,9
first five even and odd numbers respectively as
shown. Find the probability of getting A or B
form a random pick of numbers 11,12,13,14,15

Solution : For this example n(A) = 5, n(B) = 5 and n(S) = 15, since there is nothing
common in the sets therefore sets are mutually exclusive so the probability of
having A or B can be given as

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 Addition Rule
Example : Suppose there are two sets A & B of S A B
2,4,6,8 1,3 ,5 11,13
first 10 positive integers and odd numbers 10 7,9 15,17
respectively as shown. Find the probability of 19
getting A or B form a random pick of numbers
12,14,16,18,20

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 Addition Rule
Example : Suppose there are two sets A & B of S A B
2,4,6,8 1,3 ,5 11,13
first 10 positive integers and odd numbers 10 7,9 15,17
respectively as shown. Find the probability of 19
getting A or B form a random pick of numbers
12,14,16,18,20

Solution : For this example n(A) = 10, n(B) = 10 and n(S) = 20, here we have a
overlapping part therefore the sets are not mutually exclusive so the probability of
having A or B can be given as

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 Independent and Dependent Events

 Dependent: Occurrence of one affects the probability of the other

 If A & B are dependent events then the probability of both

occurring is

 Independent: Occurrence of one event does not influence the

probability of occurrence of the other
 If A & B are independent events then the probability of both

occurring is
( P() = P(B) )
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 Independent vs Dependent Events

Independent Events
E1 = heads on one flip of fair coin
E2 = heads on second flip of same coin
Result of second flip does not depend on the result of the first flip

Dependent Events
E1 = rain forecasted on the news
E2 = take umbrella to work
Probability of the second event is affected by the occurrence of the first event
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 Independent vs Dependent Events

Independent Events
E1 = heads on one flip of fair coin
E2 = heads on second flip of same coin
Result of second flip does not depend on the result of the first flip

Dependent Events
E1 = rain forecasted on the news
E2 = take umbrella to work
Probability of the second event is affected by the occurrence of the first event
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Multiplicative Law

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 Multiplicative Law

A bag contains 3 pink candies and 7 green candies. Two candies are taken out
from the bag with replacement. Find the probability that both candies are pink

Solution:

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 Multiplicative Law

A bag contains 3 pink candies and 7 green candies. Two candies are taken out
from the bag with replacement. Find the probability that both candies are pink

Solution:

Let A = event that first candy is pink and B = event that second candy is pink

→ P (A) = 3/10 …(i)

Since the candies are taken out with replacement, this implies that the given
events A and B are independent
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 Multiplicative Law

→ P (B|A) = P (B) = 3/10 …(ii)

Hence by the multiplication law we get,

P (A ∩ B) = P (A) * P (B|A)

→ P (A ∩ B) = 3/10 * 3/10 [using (i) and (ii)]

= 9/100 = 0.09

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 Multiplicative Law

A bag has 4 white cards and 5 blue cards. We draw two cards from the bag one
by one without replacement. Find the probability of getting both cards white
Solution:

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 Multiplicative Law

A bag has 4 white cards and 5 blue cards. We draw two cards from the bag one
by one without replacement. Find the probability of getting both cards white
Solution:
Let A = event that first card is white and B = event that second card is white
From question, P (A) = 4/9
Now P (B) = P (B|A) because the events given are dependent on each other
→ P (B) = 3/8
So, P (A ∩ B) = 4/9 * 3/8 = 1/6
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 Practice Problem -1

A perfect cubical die is thrown. Find the probability of getting

(i) A six
(ii) An odd number
(iii) A four or six on the upper side of the die

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 Practice Problem -2

A bag contains 4 red and 6 green balls. A ball is drawn at random from
the bag. What is the probability that the ball is red?

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Practice Problem -3

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