Pt.
SNS University
Shahdol (M.P.)
Demographic
Transition Theory
Submitted To -
Mr. D. Mishra Sir Submitted By - Rahul
Sen
https://ptsnsuniversity.ac.in/
Demographic
Transition Theory
documented by the data and statistics of recent demographic
history. In its original form, it was put forward by W.S.
Thompson (1929) and Frank Notestein (1945). These
demographers based their statements and arguments on the
• The theory postulates a particular pattern of demographic
change from a high fertility and high mortality to low fertility and
low mortality when a society progresses from a largely rural
agrarian and illiterate society to a dominantly urban, industrial,
literate and modern society. The three very clearly stated
hypotheses involved in the process are:
(i) that the decline in mortality comes before the decline in
fertility
(ii) that the fertility eventually declines to match mortality; and
(iii) that socio-economic transformation of a society takes place
simultaneously with its demographic transformation.
• Demographic Transition Theory (DTT) - Contributions of
Warren Thompson and Frank Notestei
• 1. Warren Thompson (1929) and the Initial Model
• American demographer Warren S. Thompson first introduced
the concept of demographic transition in 1929.• He studied birth
and death rates across different countries and classified them into
three broad categories based on their population growth trends:
Group A: Less developed countries with high birth and death
rates.
Group B: Countries experiencing rapid population growth due to
declining death rates but still high birth rates.
Group C : Industrialized countries (e.g., Western Europe and the
U.S.) with low birth and death rates.
• His model laid the foundation for understanding population
changes over time due to industrialization and socio-economic
development.
• 2. Frank Notestein (1945) and the Refined Model
• Frank W. Notestein expanded and formalized Thompson’s
work in 1945 by providing a four-stage model of demographic
transition:
1) High Stationary Stage: High birth and death rates; slow
population growth (Pre-industrial society).
2) Early Expanding Stage: Death rates decline due to medical
and agricultural advances, but birth rates remain high, leading
to rapid population growth.
3) Late Expanding Stage: Birth rates start declining due to
urbanization, education, and family planning, reducing
population growth rates.
4) Low Stationary Stage: Both birth and death rates are low,
stabilizing population growth (Mature industrial society).
• Some later models, including the fifth stage, suggested
population decline due to very low birth rates in post-
industrial societies.
• Significance of the Theory
• The theory explains how population growth changes over
time due to economic, social, and technological factors.
• It has been widely used in population studies, economic
planning, and policy-making.•
However, it does not account for cultural and political factors
influencing population dynamics, making it a subject of further
modifications.
• The demographic transition theory is characterized by
conspicuous transition stages. The transition from high birth
and high death rates to low rates can be divided into following
five stages:
• Stage 1 High and fluctuating birth and death rates, and
slow population growth
• Stage 2 High birth rates and declining death rates and rapid
population growth.
• Stage 3 Declining birth rates and low death rates, and
declining rate of population growth.
• Stage 4 Low birth and death rates, and slow population
growth.
• Stage 5 Birth and death rates approximately equal, which in
time will result in zero population growth.
The First Stage
fertility is over 35 per thousand and the mortality rate is also high
being more than 35 per thousand.
due to epidemics and variable food supply.
stable and slowly growing population.
This stage mainly occurs in agrarian societies.population densities
are low or moderate, generally productivity level is low, large-sized
families are an asset, life expectancy is low, the development of
agricultural sector is at its infancy stage, masses are illiterate,
technological know-how is lacking and urban development is
limited.
About two hundred years ago, all the countries of the world were
at this stage of demographic transition.
It is in this context that the first stage has been called as the pre-
industrial and pre-modern stage.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/dtm-stage-5-countries
The Second Stage
a high and gradual declining fertility of over 30 per thousand and
a sharply reduced mortality rate of over 15 per thousand.
the improvements in health and sanitation conditions result in
sharp decline in the mortality rates, the fertility maintains a high
level.
• The life expectancy starts improving. The processes of
industrialization, urbanization and modernization.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/dtm-stage-5-countries
The third, or the late expanding phase
slowing in the growth rate as the death rate stabilized at a slow
level and the birth rate declines.
This decline is associated with the growth of an urban/ industrial
society
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/dtm-stage-5-countries
In the last stage of demographic transition
both birth and death rates decline appreciably. The population is
either stable or grows only slowly.
In this stage, the population is highly industrialized and
urbanized.
The technical know-how is abundant, the deliberate controls on
family size are common, the literacy and education levels are
high, and the degree of labour specialization is also very high.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/dtm-stage-5-countries
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/dtm-stage-5-countries
Thank
YoU
