Chap 1 Risk Management
Chap 1 Risk Management
Categories of Risk:
External Risks: Political instability, natural disasters, pandemics (e.g.,
COVID-19).
Internal Risks: Supplier failure, demand fluctuations, cybersecurity
breaches.
Operational Risks: Equipment failure, labor shortages, transportation
delays.
Example: The Suez Canal blockage in 2021 and its impact on global
shipping.
Key Concepts in Supply
Chain Risk Management
Risk Identification:
•Mapping risks across the supply chain (suppliers, logistics, production).
•Tools: Risk registers, scenario analysis.
•Risk Assessment:
•Evaluating risk likelihood and impact.
•Quantitative and qualitative assessment models.
•Example: Use of Monte Carlo simulation in supply chain risk assessment.
Importance of Supply
Chain Risk Management
Preventing Disruptions:
Managing potential disruptions before they
happen.
Importance of proactive measures and
contingency planning.
Financial Impact:
Reducing the cost of disruptions through risk
management.
Case Study: How Toyota adjusted its supply
chain after the 2011 Japan earthquake.
Strategies for Managing
Supply Chain Risks
•Risk Mitigation Techniques:
•Diversification of Suppliers: Reducing dependency on single suppliers or
regions.
•Stockpiling and Buffer Inventory: Maintaining safety stock to cushion supply
disruptions.
•Vertical Integration: Controlling key parts of the supply chain.
•Example: How General Motors managed supplier risks by investing in
alternative suppliers.
Business Continuity
Planning in Supply Chains
•Business Continuity Management (BCM):
•Ensuring supply chain operations can continue during disruptions.
•Importance of having an emergency response plan, redundancy, and
backup systems.
•Key Takeaways:
•Risk management ensures business continuity.
•A resilient supply chain mitigates long-term damage from disruptions.
Risk Identification
and Assessment in
Supply Chains
Techniques for Identifying Risks,
Assessment Models, and
Prioritization
Techniques for Identifying
Supply Chain Risks
1. Internal Risks:
• Process Risks (production, handling,
warehousing)
• Financial Risks (cash flow, credit)
• Resource Risks (labor, infrastructure)
Techniques for Identifying
Supply Chain Risks
2-External Risks:
• Market Risks (demand variability, competition)
• Environmental Risks (natural disasters,
regulations)
• Political and Economic Risks (trade policies,
currency fluctuations)
International Examples:
• COVID-19 disruption of global supply chains.
Risk Assessment Models:
Qualitative and Quantitative
Approaches
1. Qualitative Approaches:
• Expert Judgment and Brainstorming
• Risk Matrix (Impact vs. Likelihood)
• Scenario Analysis
2. Quantitative Approaches:
• Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
• Statistical Models (Monte Carlo Simulations)
• Sensitivity Analysis and Probability Distributions
Prioritizing Risks Based
on Impact and Likelihood
1. Risk Scoring and Categorization:
• High Impact & High Likelihood (Critical Risks)
• Low Impact & High Likelihood (Moderate Risks)
• High Impact & Low Likelihood (Occasional but
Severe Risks)
2. Prioritization Techniques:
• Risk Heat Maps
• Bow-tie Diagrams
• Cost-Benefit Analysis for Risk Mitigation