Chapter 1

Introduction to
Simulation and Modeling

October 2019
 Pre-Requisites
• Probability
• MS-Excel
• Programming skills
 Textbook
• Author: Averill M. Law
• Title: “Simulation Modeling and Analysis”, Fourth Edition
• Publisher: McGraw-Hill Higher Education
• Year: 2007
Notes:
- The codes in this book are written in C++. However, simulations throughout
the course will be done using Excel. Ideas from this book will be used
-
 Course Outline
• Introduction to simulation
• Simulation examples in Excel spreadsheets
• General principles of simulation
• Statistical models in simulation
• Queuing models
• Random number generation
• Random variate generation
• Monte-Carlo simulation
Lecture (1)
Introduction to
Systems and
Simulation
 Introduction to Simulation
 Simulation is the imitation of a real-world process or
system over time [Banks et al.]
 It is used for analysis and study of complex systems
 Simulation requires the development of a simulation
model and then conducting computer-based experiments
with the model to describe, explain, and predict the
behaviour of the real system
What is Simulation
• The SIMULATION is the process of designing a mathematical or
logical model of the real system and then conducting computer-
based experiments with the model to describe, explain, and predict
the behavior of the real system.
 System Environment
• A system is affected by changes that occur outside its boundaries.
Such changes are said to occur in the system environment
• The boundary between the system and its environment
depend on the purpose of the study
• Example: Bank System
- There is a limit on the maximum interest rate that can
be paid
- For a study of a single bank, this would be an example of a constraint
imposed by the environment
- For a study of the effect of monetary laws on the banking industry.
 Systems
Systems: a group of objects joined together in some
regular interaction or interdependence towards the
accomplishment of some purpose
Example: A production system
manufacturing automobiles.
Machines, components and
workers operate jointly to
produce vehicles
 System Components
Object of interest
in the system
Entity

An instantaneous
occurrence that may Property of an
Event Attribute entity
change the state of
the system
System

An action that takes place The collection of variables

over a period of specified necessary to describe the system
Activity State
length and changes the at a particular time, relative to the
state of the system objectives of the study [Law]
 System Components
Exogenous:
Activities and events occurring outside the system

Endogenous:
Activities and events occurring
within a system
 Attribute:
State Variables:
# busy tellers, # customers
waiting in line or being served,
Example Balance in the customers’ accounts

arrival time of next customer

Object:
Customers

Activity:
Making deposits

Events:
Arrival, departure
 Examples
System Entities Attributes Activities Events State Variables

Arrival at station,
Number of passengers
Railway Passengers Origin, destination Traveling arrival at
waiting at each station
destination

Speed, capacity, Welding, Status of machines

Production Machines Breakdown
breakdown rate stamping (busy, idle, shutdown)

Number of packets
Arrival at
Communications Messages Length, destination Transmitting waiting to be
destination
transmitted

Inventory Warehouse Capacity Withdrawal Demand Level of inventory

 Models
• A model is a representation of a system for the purpose of
studying that system
• It is only necessary to consider those aspects of the system
that affect the problem under investigation
• The model is a simplified representation of the system
• The model should be sufficiently detailed to permit valid
conclusions to be drawn about the actual system
• Different models of the same system may be required as the
purpose of the investigation changes
Ways to Study a System [Law]
System

Experiment
with a Model
of the System

Mathematical
Physical Model
Model

Analytical
Simulation
Solution
 Why are Models Used?
• It is not possible to experiment with the actual system, e.g.: the
experiment is destructive
• The system might not exist, i.e. the system is in the design stage

Example: Bank
- Reducing the number of tellers to study the effect on the length of
waiting lines may annoy the customers such that they will move their
accounts to a competitor
 Types of Models
• A Mathematical Model utilizes symbolic notations and equations to
represent a system
- Example: current and voltage equations are mathematical models of
an electric circuit
• A Physical Model is a larger or smaller version of an object
- Example: enlargement of an atom or a scaled version of the solar
system
Classifications of Simulation
Static ModelsDynamic

Deterministic Stochastic

Discrete Continuous
 Static and Dynamic Models

Static Dynamic
• i.e. Monte Carlo • Represents systems as
Simulation – Represents they change over time
a system at a particular • Example: The
point in time simulation of a bank
• Example: Simulation of from 9:00am – 4:00pm
a coin toss game
 Deterministic and Stochastic
Models
Deterministic Stochastic

• Contain no random variables • Has one or more random variables

• Has a known set of inputs that • Random inputs lead to random
outputs. The behaviour of a model
will result in a unique set of cannot be entirely predicted.
outputs. It is possible to • Random outputs only estimates of
predict what will happen. the true characteristics of the system
• Example: Patients arriving at • Example: random arrivals at a bank.
the dentist’s office exactly at Output may be average number of
their scheduled appointments waiting customers, average waiting
time. This output is only a statistical
estimate of the system
 Discrete Vs Continuous

Discrete Continuous
State variables change State variables change
instantaneously at constantly with respect to
separated points in time time

Example: Bank Example: Airplane flight

Number of customers Position and velocity are
changes only when constantly changing with
customer arrives or departs respect to time
 Discrete and Continuous Models
Continuous Discrete
• Continuous model: the state
variables change in a continuous • Discrete model: the state variables
way, and not abruptly (‫( فجائي‬from change only at a countable number
one state to another (infinite of points in time. These points in
number of states). time are the ones at which the
event occurs/change in state.

• The choice of whether to use a discrete or continuous model depends

on the characteristics of the system and the objectives of the study
When is Simulation Appropriate
Simulation enables the study of, and interaction
with, the internal actions of a real system
The effects of changes in state variables on the
model’s behaviour can be observed
The knowledge gained from the simulation
model can be used to improve the design of the
real system under investigation
When is Simulation Appropriate
Changing inputs and observing outputs can produce
valuable insights (‫)رؤى‬about the importance of
variables and how they interact
Simulations can be used to experiment with different
designs and policies before implementation so as to
prepare for what might happen
Simulations can be used to verify analytic solutions
 Advantages of Simulation
Effects of variations in the system parameters can be observed
without affecting the real system
New system designs can be tested without resources acquisition
Hypotheses on how or why certain phenomena occur can be
tested for feasibility
Time can be expanded or compressed to allow for speed up or
slow down of the phenomenon under investigation
conclusions can be obtained about the interactions of variables
and their importance
Bottleneck analysis can be performed in order to discover where
work processes are being delayed excessively(‫)مفرط‬
 When is Simulation not
Appropriate
The problem can be solved by common sense
The problem can be solved analytically
It is less expensive to perform direct experiments
Costs of modeling and simulation exceed savings
Resources or time are not available
Lack of necessary data
System is very complex or cannot be defined
 Disadvantages of Simulation
Model building requires special training
Simulation results are often difficult to interpret.
Most simulation outputs are random variables - based
on random inputs – so it can be hard to distinguish
whether an observation is the result of system inter-
relationship or randomness
Simulation modeling and analysis can be time
consuming and expensive
 Simulation Packages
Utilize simulation packages that only need input for
their operation, e.g.: SIMULINK, MS-Excel
Many simulation packages have output analysis
capabilities, e.g. MATLAB, Excel
Simulation has become faster due to advances in
hardware
 Doc
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 1 Problem Formulation

Setting of Objectives and

2
Overall Project Plan

3 4
Model Conceptualization Data Collection

5
Model Translation

No 6
Verified
Yes
No 7 No
Validated
8 Yes

Experimental Design
9
Production Runs and Analysis
11 12
Yes 10 No Documentation
More Runs and Reporting Implementation