Probability Theory

Probability
• Probability is a numerical measurement of
likelihood of an event.
• The probability of any event is a number
between zero and one.
• Events with probability close to one are more
likely to occur.
• Events with probability close to zero are less
likely to occur.
 Probability Notation
If A represents an event,
P(A)
represents the probability of A.
 If P(A) = 1
Event A is certain to occur
 If P(A) = 0
Event A is certain not to occur
 Three methods to find probabilities:
• Intuition

• Relative frequency

• Equally likely outcomes

 Intuition Method of Determining
Probability

• Incorporates past experience, judgment, or

opinion.
• Is based upon level of confidence in the result
• Example: “I am 95% sure that I will attend the
party.”
Probability as Relative Frequency
Probability of an event =
the fraction of the time that the event occurred
in the past =
f
n
where f = frequency of an event
n = sample size
 Example of Probability
as Relative Frequency

If you note that 57 of the last 100

applicants for a job have been female,
the probability that the next applicant is
female would be:
57
100
 Equally Likely Outcomes
• No one result is expected to occur more
frequently than any other.
When outcomes are equally likely

Probability of an event 

Number of outcomes favorable to event

Total number of outcomes
Example of Equally Likely Outcome Method

When rolling a die, the probability of getting a

number less than three =

2 1

6 3
 Law of Large Numbers

In the long run, as the sample size increases and

increases, the relative frequencies of
outcomes get closer and closer to the
theoretical (or actual) probability value.
 Statistical Experiment or
Statistical Observation
• Any random activity that results in a definite
outcome
 Event
• A collection of one or more outcomes of a
statistical experiment or observation
 Simple Event
• An outcome of a statistical experiment that
consists of one and only one of the outcomes
of the experiment
 Sample Space
• The set of all possible distinct outcomes of an
experiment

• The sum of all probabilities of all simple

events in a sample space must equal one.
 Sample Space for the
rolling of an ordinary die:

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
 For the experiment of
rolling an ordinary die:
3 1
• P(even number) = 
6 2
4 2
• P(result less than five) = 
6 3
5
• P(not getting a two) =
6
 Complement of Event A
• the event that A does not occur

• Notation for the complement of event A:

c
A
Event A and its complement A
c
 Probability of a Complement

• P(event A does not occur) =

P(Ac) = 1 – P(A)

• So, P(A) + P(Ac) = 1

Probability of a Complement

If the probability that it will snow today is 30%,

P(It will not snow) = 1 – P(snow) =
1 – 0.30 = 0.70
 Probability Related to Statistics
• Probability makes statements about what will
occur when samples are drawn from a known
population.
• Statistics describes how samples are to be
obtained and how inferences are to be made
about unknown populations.
 Independent Events
• The occurrence (or non-occurrence) of one
event does not change the probability that the
other event will occur.
If events A and B are independent,
• P(A and B) = P(A) P(B)
•
 Conditional Probability
• If events are dependent, the fact that one
occurs affects the probability of the other.

• P(A, given B) equals the probability that event

A occurs, assuming that B has already
occurred.
 General Multiplication Rule for Any
Events:

• P(A and B) = P(A) P(B, given A)

•

• P(A and B) = P(B) P(A, given B)

•
 The Multiplication Rules:
• For independent events:
P(A and B) = P(A) P(B)
•

• For any events:

P(A and B) = P(A) P(B, given A)
•

P(A and B) = P(B) P(A, given B)

•
 For independent events:
P(A and B) = P(A) P(B) •

When choosing two cards from two separate decks

of cards, find the probability of getting two fives.

P(two fives) =
P(5 from first deck and 5 from second) =

1 1 1
 
13 13 169
 For dependent events:
P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B, given A)
When choosing two cards from a deck without
replacement, find the probability of getting
two fives.
P(two fives) =
P(5 on first draw and 5 on second) =

4 3 12 1
  
52 51 2652 221
 “And” versus “or”
• And means both events occur together.

• Or means that at least one of the events

occur.
The Event A and B
The Event A or B
General Addition Rule
For any events A and B,

P(A or B) =

P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

 When choosing a card from an
ordinary deck, the probability of
getting a five or a red card:

P(5 ) + P(red) – P(5 and red) =

4 26 2 28 7
   
52 52 52 52 13
 When choosing a card from an ordinary
deck, the probability of getting a five or a six:

P(5 ) + P(6) – P(5 and 6) =

4 4 0 8 2
   
52 52 52 52 13
 Mutually Exclusive Events
• Events that are disjoint, cannot happen
together.
Addition Rule for Mutually Exclusive
Events

For any mutually exclusive events A

and B,

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

When rolling an ordinary die:

P(4 or 6) =

1 1 2 1
  
6 6 6 3
 Survey results:
Education: Males Females Row totals
College 54 62 116
Graduates

Not College 31 40 71
Graduates

Column 85 102 187(Grand total)

totals
P(male and college grad) = ?
 Survey results:
Education: Males Females Row totals
College 54 62 116
Graduates

Not College 31 40 71
Graduates

Column 85 102 187(Grand total)

totals
54
P(male and college grad) =
187
 Survey results:
Education: Males Females Row totals
College 54 62 116
Graduates

Not College 31 40 71
Graduates

Column 85 102 187(Grand total)

totals
P(male or college grad) = ?
 Survey results:

Education: Males Females Row totals

College 54 62 116
Graduates

Not College 31 40 71
Graduates

Column 85 102 187(Grand total)

totals
147
P(male or college grad) =
187
 Survey results:

Education: Males Females Row totals

College 54 62 116
Graduates

Not College 31 40 71
Graduates

Column 85 102 187(Grand total)

totals
P(male, given college grad) = ?
 Survey results:

Education: Males Females Row totals

College 54 62 116
Graduates

Not College 31 40 71
Graduates

Column 85 102 187(Grand total)

totals
54
P(male, given college grad) =
116
 Counting Techniques

• Tree Diagram

• Multiplication Rule of Counting

• Permutations

• Combinations
 Tree Diagram
• a visual display of the total number of
outcomes of an experiment consisting of a
series of events
Tree diagram for selecting class
schedules
Find the number of paths without
constructing the tree diagram:

Experiment of rolling two dice,

one after the other and observing
any of the six possible outcomes
each time .

Number of paths = 6 x 6 = 36
Multiplication Rule of Counting

For any series of events, if there are

n1 possible outcomes for event E1
and n2 possible outcomes for event E2,
etc.
then there are
n1 X n2 X ··· X nm possible outcomes
for the series of events E1 through Em.
 Area Code Example
In the past, an area code consisted of 3 digits,
the first of which could be any digit from 2 through
9.
The second digit could be only a 0 or 1.
The last could be any digit.
How many different such area codes were possible?

8  2  10 = 160
 Ordered Arrangements
In how many different ways could four items be
arranged in order from first to last?

4  3  2  1 = 24
 Factorial Notation

• n! is read "n factorial"

• n! is applied only when n is a whole number.

• n! is a product of n with each positive

counting number less than n
 Calculating Factorials
• 5! = 5 • 4 • 3 • 2 • 1 =
120
• 3! = 3 • 2 • 1 =
6
 Definitions
• 1! = 1

• 0! = 1
 Complete the Factorials:

4! = 24

10! = 3,628,800

6! = 720

15! = 1.3077 x 1012

 Permutations
• A Permutation is an arrangement in a
particular order of a group of items.

• There are to be no repetitions of items within

a permutation.
 Listing Permutations
How many different permutations of the letters
a, b, c are possible?

Solution: There are six different permutations:

abc, acb, bac, bca, cab, cba.

 Listing Permutations
How many different two-letter permutations of the
letters a, b, c, d are possible?

Solution: There are twelve different permutations:

ab, ac, ad, ba, ca, da, bc, bd, cb, db, cd, dc.
 Permutation Formula

The number of ways to arrange in order

n distinct objects, taking them r at a
time, is:

n!
Pn , r 
n  r !
where n and r are whole numbers and n > r.
Another Notation for Permutations

P
n r
 Find P7, 3

7! 7! 5040
P7 , 3    210
( 7  3 )! 4! 24
Applying the Permutation Formula
6
P3, 3 = _______ 12
P4, 2 = _______

P6, 2 30 336
P8, 3 = _______
= __________

P15, 2 210
= _______
 Application of Permutations

A teacher has chosen eight possible

questions for an upcoming quiz. In how
many different ways can five of these
questions be chosen and arranged in order
from #1 to #5?

8!
Solution: P8,5 =
3 ! = 8• 7 • 6 • 5 • 4 = 6720
 Combinations

A combination is a grouping
in no particular order
of items.
 Combination Formula
The number of combinations of n objects
taken r at a time is:

n!
Cn , r 
(n  r ) ! r !

where n and r are whole numbers and n > r.

Other Notations for Combinations:

 n
n C r or  
r
 
 Find C9, 3

9! 9! 362880
C9, 3    84
3! ( 9  3 )! 3!6! 6( 720 )
Applying the Combination Formula

C5, 3 = 10 C7, 3 = 35

1 105
C3, 3 = C15, 2 =

15
C6, 2 =
 Application of Combinations

A teacher has chosen eight possible

questions for an upcoming quiz. In how
many different ways can five of these
questions be chosen if order makes no
difference?

Solution: C8,5 = 8 !
= 56
5!3 !
 Determining the Number of
Outcomes of an Experiment
• If the experiment consists of a series of stage
with various outcomes, use the multiplication
rule or a tree diagram.
 Determining the Number of
Outcomes of an Experiment

If the outcomes consist of ordered

subgroups of r outcomes taken from a
group of n outcomes use the
permutation rule.
 Determining the Number of
Outcomes of an Experiment

If the outcomes consist of non-ordered

subgroups of r items taken from a
group of n items use the combination
rule.