Probability distribution

Scenario
You are the owner of a quaint coffee shop in a bustling town. Curious about
your business patterns, you decide to analyze your daily sales over a month.
Every day for 30 days, you meticulously record the number of cups of coffee
sold. As the month concludes, you examine your data and notice some
intriguing patterns emerging. On two days, you sold only 5 cups, while there
were five days when you sold 10 cups. More commonly, you find that on eight
days you sold 15 cups, and even more frequently, there were ten days when 20
cups flew off your shelves. The higher numbers were less frequent but still
significant, with four days seeing sales of 25 cups, and one exceptional day
where you sold a whopping 30 cups.

Based on the above information, how would you anticipate your most likely
sales figures, allowing you to optimize your inventory management?
 Contd..
Insights

This probability distribution gives you insights into your daily sales patterns.
For example, you're most likely to sell 20 cups on any given day (33.3%
chance), while selling 30 cups is the least likely outcome (3.3% chance).
Illustration of Probability Distribution
 Probability Distribution
• Probability distributions are related to frequency distributions.
• Moreover, we can relate probability distribution to theoretical
frequency distribution.
• A theoretical frequency distribution is a probability distribution that
describes how outcomes are expected to vary.
• Because these distributions deal with expectations, they are useful
models in making inferences and decisions under conditions of
uncertainty
 Examples of Probability Distributions

Experiment using a fair coin

POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FROM TWO TOSSES OF A FAIR COIN
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF THE
POSSIBLE NUMBER OF TAILS FROM TWO
TOSSES OF A FAIR COIN
Examples of Probability Distributions (Contd..)

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF THE NUMBER OF TAILS IN TWO TOSSES OF A FAIR COIN

 Practice Question

• A political candidate for local office is considering the votes she can
get in a coming election. Assume that votes can take only four possible
values. If the candidate’s assessment is like this:

Then the graph of probability distribution will be?

 Solution

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF THE NUMBER OF VOTES

 Frequency Distribution Vs. Probability Distribution

• Frequency distribution is a listing of the observed frequencies of all the

outcomes of an experiment that actually occurred when the experiment
was done.

Whereas,

• A probability distribution is a listing of the probabilities of all the

possible outcomes that could result if the experiment were done.
 Condition of Probability Distribution

[X, p(X)] is said to constitute a probability distribution if:

1. X is a random variable

• A random variable is a function that assigns a numerical value to each outcome of a

random experiment. It can be discrete (taking on specific values) or continuous (any value
within a range).
• Random variables allow us to quantify and analyze the uncertainty in probabilistic events
mathematically.

2. p(x) > = 0
3. Σp(x) = 1.
 Types of Probability Distribution

Types: discrete or continuous.

• In a discrete probability distribution, the variable under consideration is restricted
to take only a limited number of values, which can be listed.
Example: recall “number of votes graph” There, votes could take on only four
possible values (1,000, 2,000, 3,000, or 4,000).
Similarly, the probability that you were born in a given month is also discrete
because there are only 12 possible values (the 12 months of the year).
• In a continuous probability distribution, on the other hand, the variable under
consideration is allowed to take on any value within a given range, so we cannot
list all the possible values.
Example: Customer arrival at the store
 Practice Question

• Based on the following graph of a probability distribution, construct

the corresponding table.
 Practice Question (Contd..)

• Which of the following statements regarding probability distributions are correct?

1. A probability distribution provides information about the long-run or

expected frequency of each outcome of an experiment.
True. A probability distribution provides information about the long-
run or expected frequency of each outcome of an experiment. It
describes the likelihood of each possible outcome occurring in a
random experiment and summarizes how these outcomes are
distributed over many repetitions of the experiment.
 Practice Question (Contd..)

• Which of the following statements regarding probability distributions are correct?

2. The graph of a probability distribution has the possible outcomes of an

experiment marked on the horizontal axis.
True. The graph of a probability distribution typically has the possible outcomes of
an experiment marked on the horizontal axis. This axis is often referred to as the x-
axis, and it represents the values or events that can occur in the experiment. The
vertical axis, which is usually labeled as the y-axis, represents the probabilities
associated with each of these outcomes. The graph visually displays the likelihood of
each possible outcome, allowing for a clear understanding of how probabilities are
distributed across the different events or values.
 Practice Question (Contd..)

• Which of the following statements regarding probability distributions are correct?

3. A probability distribution lists the probabilities that each outcome is random.

False. A probability distribution does not list the probabilities that each outcome is
random. Instead, it provides information about the likelihood of each possible
outcome of a random experiment.
 Practice Question (Contd..)
• Which of the following statements regarding probability distributions are correct?

4. A probability distribution is always constructed from a set of observed frequencies

like a frequency distribution.
False. A probability distribution is not always constructed from a set of observed
frequencies like a frequency distribution.

While probability distributions can be empirically derived from observed data in some
cases, they are also frequently used in theoretical and modeling contexts where the
probabilities are defined based on assumptions and mathematical principles rather than
observed frequencies. Common examples of probability distributions include the
normal distribution, binomial distribution, and Poisson distribution, all of which are
used in various fields to model random phenomena without relying on observed data.
 Practice Question (Contd..)

• Which of the following statements regarding probability distributions are correct?

5. A probability distribution may be based on subjective estimates of the likelihood of

certain outcomes.
True. A probability distribution may indeed be based on subjective estimates of the likelihood
of certain outcomes. This concept is often referred to as a subjective probability distribution.

In some situations, it's challenging to obtain objective data or historical frequencies to

construct a probability distribution. In such cases, individuals or experts may rely on their
own judgment, expertise, or subjective beliefs to estimate the probabilities associated with
various outcomes. These subjective estimates are then used to create a probability distribution
that reflects the best available knowledge or opinions.
 Random Variable
• A variable is random if it takes on different values as a result of the outcomes of a
random experiment.
• A random variable can be either discrete or continuous. If a random variable is
allowed to take on only a limited number of values, which can be listed, it is a
discrete random variable.
• On the other hand, if it is allowed to assume any value within a given range, it is a
continuous random variable.
 Types of Variable

Variable

Discrete Continuous
 Example of Discrete Random Variable
Suppose that a coin is tossed twice, .
Let represent the number of heads that can come up.
With each sample point we can associate a number for e.g., in case of ,
while for . It follows that is a random variable.

, , ,
Example of
Discrete
Random
Variables

Number of patient
screened by the
doctor
Probability
dist. of
number of
patient
screened by
the doctor
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FOR
THE DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE
“DAILY NUMBER SCREENED”
 Expected value of Random Variable

• Expected value is a fundamental idea in the study of probability distributions.

• The concept has been put to considerable practical use by the insurance industry.
• In the last 40 years, it has been widely used by many others who must make decisions
under conditions of uncertainty.
• To obtain the expected value of a discrete random variable, we multiply each value that
the random variable can assume by the probability of occurrence of that value and then
sum these products.
Example:
Expected
Value
 Insights
• The total in the table tells us that the expected value of the discrete random variable
“number screened” is 108.02 patients.

• What does 108.02 mean?

• It means that over a long period of time, the number of daily screenings should average
about 108.02. Note that an expected value of 108.02 does not mean that tomorrow
exactly 108.02 patients will visit the clinic.

• The clinic director would base her decisions on the expected value of daily screenings
because the expected value is a weighted average of the outcomes she expects in the
future.
Practice Question
Practice Question (Contd..)
 Application of Expected Value in Decision Making
• Consider a case for fruits and vegetable wholesaler who sells strawberries. This product
has a very limited useful life. If not sold on the day of delivery, it is worthless.

• The wholesaler cannot specify the number of cases customers will call for any one day,
but her analysis of past records has produced the information below.

SALES DURING 100 DAYS

 Application of Expected Value in Decision Making (Contd..)

• Given:
One case of strawberries costs: $ 20
Wholesaler receives for one case: $ 50

• Two types of losses are incurred by the wholesaler:

(1) obsolescence losses, caused by stocking too much fruit on any one day and having to
throw it away the next day;
(2) opportunity losses, caused by being out of strawberries any time that customers call for
them. (Customers will not wait beyond the day a case is requested.)
Conditional Loss Table
Expected Loss from Stocking 10 Cases
Expected Loss from Stocking 11 Cases
Expected Loss from Stocking 12 Cases
Expected Loss from Stocking 13 Cases
 Insight

• The optimal stock action is the one that will minimize expected losses.

• This action calls for the stocking of 12 cases each day, at which point the
expected is minimum at $17.50.
Expected Value Of Discrete Variables
• Expected Value (or mean) of a discrete
variable (Weighted Average):N
 E(X)  x i P ( X  x i )
i 1

Interruptions Per Day In Probability

Computer Network (xi) P(X = xi) xiP(X = xi)
0 0.35 (0)(0.35) = 0.00
1 0.25 (1)(0.25) = 0.25
2 0.20 (2)(0.20) = 0.40
3 0.10 (3)(0.10) = 0.30
4 0.05 (4)(0.05) = 0.20
5 0.05 (5)(0.05) = 0.25
1.00 μ = E(X) = 1.40
Discrete Variables: Measuring Dispersion
• Variance of a discrete variable.
N
σ 2  [x i  E(X)]2 P(X  x i )
i 1

• Standard Deviation of a discrete variable.

N
σ  σ2   i
[x
i 1
 E(X)]2
P(X  x i )

where:
E(X) = Expected value of the discrete variable X
xi = the ith outcome of X
P(X=xi) = Probability of the ith occurrence of X
Discrete Variables: Measuring Dispersion
N
σ  [x
i 1
i
2
 E(X)] P(X  x i )

Interruptions Per
Day In Computer Probability
Network (xi) P(X = xi) [xi – E(X)]2 [xi – E(X)]2P(X = xi)
0 0.35 (0 – 1.4)2 = 1.96 (1.96)(0.35) = 0.686
1 0.25 (1 – 1.4)2 = 0.16 (0.16)(0.25) = 0.040
2 0.20 (2 – 1.4)2 = 0.36 (0.36)(0.20) = 0.072
3 0.10 (3 – 1.4)2 = 2.56 (2.56)(0.10) = 0.256
4 0.05 (4 – 1.4)2 = 6.76 (6.76)(0.05) = 0.338
5 0.05 (5 – 1.4)2 = 12.96 (12.96)(0.05) = 0.648
σ2 = 2.04, σ = 1.4283
Excercise: Find the expectation , variance and standard deviation of
each of the following distributions:
2 3 11
p

-5 -4 1 2

1 3 4 5
 Probability Distributions
Probability
Distributions

Discrete Continuous
Probability Probability
Distributions Distributions

Binomial Normal

Poisson Uniform
 Binomial Probability Distribution
 A fixed number of observations, n.
 e.g., 15 tosses of a coin; ten light bulbs are taken from a warehouse.
 Each observation is classified into one of two mutually exclusive & collectively
exhaustive categories.
 e.g., head or tail in each toss of a coin; defective or not defective light bulb.
 The probability of being classified as the event of interest, π, is constant from
observation to observation.
 Probability of getting a tail is the same each time we toss the coin.
 Since the two categories are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive when the probability of the
event of interest is π, the probability of the event of interest not occurring is 1 – π .
 The value of any observation is independent of the value of any other observation.
Possible Applications for the Binomial
Distribution
• A manufacturing plant labels items as either defective or
acceptable.
• A firm bidding for contracts will either get a contract or not.
• A marketing research firm receives survey responses of “yes I
will buy” or “no I will not.”
• New job applicants either accept the offer or reject it.
 The Binomial Distribution Counting
Techniques
• Suppose the event of interest is obtaining heads on the toss of a fair
coin. You are to toss the coin three times. In how many ways can you
get two heads?

• Possible ways: HHT, HTH, THH, so there are three ways you can
getting two heads.

• This situation is fairly simple. We need to be able to count the number

of ways for more complicated situations.
Counting Techniques: Rule of Combinations

• The number of combinations of selecting x objects out of n objects is:

n!
n Cx 
x!(n  x)!
where:
n! =(n)(n - 1)(n - 2) . . . (2)(1)
x! = (X)(X - 1)(X - 2) . . . (2)(1)
0! = 1 (by definition)
Counting Techniques: Rule of Combinations
• How many possible 3 scoop combinations could you create at an ice cream
parlor if you have 31 flavors to select from and no flavor can be used more than
once in the 3 scoops?
• The total choices is n = 31, and we select X = 3.

31! 31! 31  30  29  28!

31 C 3    31  5  29 4,495
3!(31  3)! 3!28! 3  2  1  28!
 Binomial Distribution Formula
n! x n- x
P(X=x |n,π) = π (1-π)
x! (n - x )!

P(X=x|n,π) = probability that X = x events of

interest, given n and π
x = number of “events of interest” in sample, Example: Flip a coin four
times, let x = # heads:
(x = 0, 1, 2, ..., n)
n=4
n = sample size (number of trials
or observations) π = 0.5
π = probability of “event of interest” 1 - π = (1 - 0.5) = 0.5
1 – π = probability of not having an X = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
event of interest
Example: Calculating a Binomial Probability
What is the probability of one success in five
observations if the probability of an event of interest
is 0.1?
x = 1, n = 5, and π = 0.1

n!
P(X 1 | 5,0.1)   x (1   ) n  x
x!(n  x)!
5!
 (0.1)1 (1  0.1) 5 1
1!(5  1)!
 (5)(0.1)(0 .9) 4
 0.32805
The Binomial Distribution: Example
Suppose the probability of an invoice payment being
late is 0.10. What is the probability of 1 late invoice
payment in a group of 4 invoices?
x = 1, n = 4, and π = 0.10

n!
P(X 1 | 4, 0.10)   x (1  ) n  x
x!(n  x)!
4!
 (0.10)1 (1  0.10) 4 1
1!(4  1)!
 (4)(0.10)( 0.729)
 0.2916
The Binomial Distribution Using Binomial Tables (Available
Online)

https://www.statology.org/how-to-read-binomial-distribution-table/
 The Binomial Distribution: Shape
• The shape of the binomial
P(X=x|5, 0.1)
distribution depends on the .6
values of π and n. .4
.2
 Here, n = 5 and π = 0.1. 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 x

P(X=x|5, 0.5)
.6
.4
 Here, n = 5 and π = 0.5. .2
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 x
Binomial Distribution Characteristics

• Mean: μ E(X) n

 Variance and Standard Deviation:

σ n (1 -  )
2

σ  n (1 -  )
Where n = sample size
π = probability of the event of interest for any trial
(1 – π) = probability of no event of interest for any
trial
Practice Question
Practice Question
Computing Binomial Probabilities In Excel
Suppose the probability of an invoice
payment being late is 0.10. What is the
probability of 1 late invoice payment in
a group of 4 invoices?
x = 1, n = 4, and π = 0.10
Continuous Probability Distributions

• A continuous variable is a variable that can assume

any value on a continuum (can assume an
uncountable number of values):
• thickness of an item.
• time required to complete a task.
• temperature of a solution.
• height, in inches.

• These can potentially take on any value depending

only on the ability to precisely and accurately
measure.
Continuous Probability Distributions Vary By
Shape

• Symmetrical • Symmetrical • Right skewed

• Bell-shaped • Also known as • Mean > Median
• Ranges from Rectangular • Ranges from
negative to Distribution zero to
positive infinity • Every value between positive infinity
the smallest & largest
is equally likely
 The Normal Distribution
• ‘Bell
Shaped.’
• Symmetrical. .
f(X)
• Mean, Median and Mode are
Equal.
Location is determined by the mean,
μ. σ
X
Spread is determined by the μ
standard deviation, σ.
Mean
The random variable has an infinite = Median
theoretical range: = Mode
- to +.
 The Normal Distribution:
Density Function
 The formula for the normal probability density function is:
2
1  (X  μ) 
1  
2  

f(X)  e
2π
Where e = the mathematical constant approximated by 2.71828
π = the mathematical constant approximated by 3.14159
μ = the population mean
σ = the population standard deviation
X = any value of the continuous variable
By varying the parameters μ and σ, we
obtain different normal distributions

A and B have the same mean but different standard deviations.

B and C have different means and different standard deviations.
 The Normal Distribution Shape

f(X) Changing μ shifts the

distribution left or right.

Changing σ increases
or decreases the
σ spread.

μ X
 The Standardized Normal
• Any normal distribution (with any mean and
standard deviation combination) can be
transformed into the standardized normal
distribution (Z).

• To compute normal probabilities need to

transform X units into Z units.

• The standardized normal distribution (Z) has a

mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1.
 Translation to the Standardized
Normal Distribution
• Translate from X to the standardized normal (the
“Z” distribution) by subtracting the mean of X and
dividing by its standard deviation:

X μ
Z
σ
The Z distribution always has mean = 0 and
standard deviation = 1.
 The Standardized Normal
Probability Density Function
• The formula for the standardized normal probability
density function is:

1  (1/2)Z 2
f(Z)  e
2π

Where e = the mathematical constant approximated by 2.71828

π = the mathematical constant approximated by 3.14159
Z = any value of the standardized normal distribution
The Standardized
Normal Distribution
• Also known as the “Z” distribution.
• Mean is 0.
• Standard Deviation is 1.
f(Z)

0 Z

Values above the mean have positive Z-values.

Values below the mean have negative Z-values.
 Example

• If X is distributed normally with mean of $100

and standard deviation of $50, the Z value for X =
$200 is:

X  μ $200  $100
Z  2.0
σ $50
• This says that X = $200 is two standard deviations
above the mean of $100.
 Comparing X and Z units

$100 $200 $X (μ = $100, σ = $50)

0 2.0 Z (μ = 0, σ = 1)
Note that the shape of the distribution is the same,
only the scale has changed. We can express the
problem in the original units (X in dollars) or in
standardized units (Z).
 Finding Normal Probabilities

Probability is measured by the area

under the curve.
f(X)
P (a ≤ X ≤ b)
= P (a < X < b)
(Note that the probability
of any individual value is
zero.)

a b X
Probability as
Area Under the Curve
The total area under the curve is 1.0, and the curve
is symmetric, so half is above the mean, half is below.

f(X) P(    X  μ) 0.5
P(μ  X  ) 0.5

0.5 0.5

μ X
P(    X  ) 1.0
 The Standardized Normal Table

The Cumulative Standardized Normal table in the

textbook (Appendix table E.2) gives the
probability less than a desired value of Z (i.e.,
from negative infinity to Z).

0.9772
Example:
P(Z < 2.00) = 0.9772

0 2.00 Z
 General Procedure for Finding
Normal Probabilities

To find P(a < X < b) when X is

distributed normally:
• Draw the normal curve for the problem in
terms of X.

• Translate X-values to Z-values.

• Use the Standardized Normal Table.

 Finding Normal Probabilities
• Let X represent the time it takes (in seconds) to
download an image file from the internet.
• Suppose X is normal with a mean of 18.0 seconds
and a standard deviation of 5.0 seconds. Find P(X
< 18.6).

X
18.0
18.6
 Finding Normal Probabilities
• Let X represent the time it takes, in seconds to download an image file from
the internet.
• Suppose X is normal with a mean of 18.0 seconds and a standard deviation of
5.0 seconds. Find P(X < 18.6):

X  μ 18.6  18.0
Z  0.12
σ 5.0

μ = 18 μ=0
σ=5 σ=1

18 18.6 X 0 0.12 Z

P(X < 18.6) P(Z < 0.12)

 Solution: Finding P(Z < 0.12)

Standardized Normal Probability P(X < 18.6)

Table (Portion) = P(Z < 0.12)
0.5478

0.0478

0.5 Z
0.00
0.12
 Finding Normal
Upper Tail Probabilities

• Suppose X is normal with mean 18.0 and

standard deviation 5.0.
• Now Find P(X > 18.6).

X
18.0
18.6
Finding Normal
Upper Tail Probabilities

• Now Find P(X > 18.6).

P(X > 18.6) = P(Z > 0.12) = 1.0 - P(Z ≤ 0.12)
= 1.0 - 0.5478 = 0.4522

0.5478
1.000 1.0 - 0.5478
= 0.4522

Z Z
0 0
0.12 0.12
 Finding a Normal Probability
Between Two Values
• Suppose X is normal with mean 18.0 and
standard deviation 5.0. Find P(18 < X < 18.6).

Calculate Z-values:

X  μ 18  18
Z  0
σ 5
18 18.6 X
X  μ 18.6  18 0 0.12 Z
Z  0.12
σ 5 P(18 < X < 18.6)
= P(0 < Z < 0.12)
Probabilities in the Lower Tail
• Suppose X is normal with mean 18.0 and
standard deviation 5.0.
• Now Find P(17.4 < X < 18).

X
18.0
17.4
Probabilities in the Lower Tail
Now Find P(17.4 < X < 18):

0.0478
The Normal distribution is
symmetric, so this probability is
the same as P(0 < Z < 0.12).

17.4 18.0 X
-0.12 0 Z
 Empirical Rule

What can we say about the distribution of values

around the mean? For any normal distribution:
f(X)

μ ± 1σ covers about 68.26% of

X’s.
σ σ

μ-1σ μ μ+1σ X

68.26%
 The Empirical Rule

• μ ± 2σ covers about 95.44% of X’s.

• μ ± 3σ covers about 99.73% of X’s.

2σ 2σ 3σ 3σ
μ x μ x

95.44% 99.73%
 Given a Normal Probability
Find the X Value

• Steps to find the X value for a known probability:

1. Find the Z value for the known probability.
2. Convert to X units using the formula:

X μ  Zσ
 Homework: Finding the X
value for a Known Probability
Example:
• Let X represent the time it takes (in seconds) to download an
image file from the internet.
• Suppose X is normal with mean 18.0 and standard deviation
5.0.
• Find X such that 20% of download times are less than X.

0.2000

? 18.0 X
? 0 Z
 Practice Questions
• A study of past participants indicates that the mean length of time spent on the program is 500
hours and that this normally distributed random variable has a standard deviation of 100 hours.

Question 1: What is the probability that a participant selected at random will require more than
500 hours to complete the program?

Question 2: What is the probability that a candidate selected at random will take between 500
and 650 hours to complete the training program?

Question 3: What is the probability that a candidate selected at random will take more than 700
hours to complete the program?

Question 4: Suppose the training-program director wants to know the probability that a
participant chosen at random would require between 550 and 650 hours to complete the required
work.
 Practice Questions
Question 5: What is the probability that a candidate selected at random
will require fewer than 580 hours to complete the program?

Question 6: What is the probability that a candidate chosen at random

will take between 420 and 570 hours to complete the program?