PROBABILITY

WHAT IS
PROBABILITY?
• An area of study which involves predicting the relative
likelihood of various outcomes.
• A mathematical area which has developed over the
past three or four centuries. One of the early uses was
to calculate the odds of various gambling games.
• Useful for describing errors of scientific and
engineering measurements.
 PROBABILITY
COMMON WAYS OF REPORTING PROBABILITY
 FRACTION
 DECIMALS
 PERCENTAGE

BASIC PROBABILITY FOMULA

P(A)= NO. OF SUCCESSFUL DESIRE_____

TOTAL NO. OF POSIBLE OUTCOME
PROBABILITY
I. Sample Space and
Relationships Among Events
II. Counting Rules Useful in
Probability
III. Rules of Probability
I. SAMPLE SPACE
AND
RELATIONSHIPS
AMONG
SAMPLE SPACE - The set of all possible outcomes of a
statistical experiment, and IT is represented by the
symbol “s.

ELEMENT- Each outcome in a sample space is called an

element or a member of the sample space.
Example: Consider the experiment of tossing a die. If we are
interested in the umber that shows on the top face,the sample space
would be:

1 2 3

4 5 6
s
S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
EVENTS – the combination of outcomes of a random
experiment or trial.
RELATIONSHIPS AMONG EVENTS – refers to how
different events relate to each other n term of their
occurrence and their probability.
Several ways in which events can relate to each other:
1. Mutually Exclusive Events – If the events can’t happen at
the same time.
Example: When rolling a die, the events “rolling a 3
and rolling a 5” are
mutually exclusive.
2. Independent Events – One does not affect the
occurrence of the other.
Example: Flipping a coin and rolling a die.
3. Complementary Events – One event occurs and the other
does not.
Example: In the coin flip, the events “getting heads”
and “getting tails”.
4. Union of Events – Represents the event that either A or B
(o both) occur, denoted by AՍB.
Example: The events “rolling an even number or a
number greater than 4” on a six-
sided die would be the union of the events.
5. Intersection of Events – Represents the event that both A
and B occur, denoted by AՈB.
Example: If you are rolling a die and the events are
“rolling an even number” and “rolling a
number greater than 4” the intersection of
these events would be rolling a six.
6. Conditional Events, P(A/B) – An event whose occurrence
depends on the occurrence of another event.
Example: The probability that a card drawn from a
deck is a red card, given that it is a face card.
 Identify the regions describe
by the following equation:
A B
2 1. AՈB= { 1, 2}
6 2. BՈC= { 1, 3 }
7
3. AՍC= { 7, 4, 1, 2, 5, 3 }
1 4. B’ՈA= { 4, 7}
4 3 5. AՈBՈC= { 1 }
6. (AՍB)ՈC={ 4, 1, 3 }
5

C
PROBLEM 1
Of 120 of engineers surveyed 60 are working in the academe, 50 are working in
industry, and 20 are working both in academe and industry. If an engineer is chosen
at random, find the probability that the engineer is working either in academe or in
industry.
P = ___Desired outcome__
ACADEME(60) INDUSTRY(50) total possible outcome

60-20=40 20 50-20=30 P = 40+20+30

120

S=120
P = 3/4
COUNTING
RULES
USEFUL IN
 3 TYPPES OF
COUNTING
PRINCIPLE
1. Fundamental Counting Principle
2. Permutation
3. Combination
 FUNDAMENTAL
COUNTING
PRINCIPLE
If one event can occur in m” ways and a
second event can occur in n” ways, the
number of ways the two events can occur
in sequence is m x n .
 EXAMPLE

Two coins are flipped. How many different

outcomes are there? List the sample space

start

1st coin
Heads Tails 2 ways to flip the coin
tossed

2nd coin
tossed
Tails Tails 2 ways to flip the coin

There are 2 x 2 = 4 different outcomes:s={HH, HT, TH, TT}.

EXAMPLE

A meal consist of a main dish, a side dish, and a

dessert . How many different meals can be
selected if there are 4 main dishes and 5 desserts
available?

No. Of main No. of side No. of

dishes dishes desserts

4 x 2 x 5 = 40
There are 40 meals available.
 PERMUTATION
-Is an ordered arrangement of objects.
The number of different permutation of n’’
distinct objects is n factorial (n!).

-The number of permutations of n’’

elements taken r’’ at a time is

No. in the
group
No. taken from
the group
EXAMPLE

You are required to read 5 books from a list of 8. in how many

different order can you do so?

8P5=-_8!__
(8-5)!
8! = 8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1 = 6720 ways
3! 3x2x1
 COMBINATION
-Is a selection f r objects from group of n
things when order does not matter. The
number of ombinatons of r objects selected
from a group of n objects is

nCr =
No. in the
collection No. taken from
collection
 EXAMPLE
You are required to read 5 books from a list of 8. in ow many
different ways can you do so if the order doesn’t matter?

nCr =

8C5= ___8!__ = 8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1

5!(8!-5!) (5x4x3x2x1)(3x2x1)

8C5 = 56 –combinations
 EXAMPLE
If there are 8 researchers ad 3 of them are to be chosen to go
to a meeting, how many different groupings can be chosen

nCr =

8C3= ___8!__ = 8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1

3!(8!-3!) (3x2x1)(5x4x3x2x1)

8C3 = 56 -groupings can be chosen

 RULES IN
PROBABILITY
ADDITION RULE
-The probability that one or both event occur

• Mutually exclusive- if two events A and B cannot occur at

the same time, then the probability that either A or B
occurs is the sum of their individual properties.
P(A or B)= P(A) + P(B)

• Non mutually exclusive- if two events A and B can occur

together, the probability that eitherA or B occur is;
P(A or B)=P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
 MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
EXAMPLE

++++
Imagine you roll a fair six-sided die, and you’re interested in
the probability of either rolling a 2 or a 4.
• Event A: Rolling a 2 (probability = 1/6)
• Event B: Rolling a 4 (probability = 1/6)

P(A or B)= P(A) + P(B)

=1 + 1
6 6
=1 Thus, the probability f rolling either a 2 or a 4 is 1/3
3
 NON-MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
EXAMPLE

++++
Lets consider a deck of 52 playing cards. You want to know
the probability of drawing heart or queen
• The probability f drawing a heart: P(heart) = 13/52
(since there are 13 hearts in the deck)
• The probability of drawing a queen P(QUEEN) = 4/52 =
1/13
• Probability of both event A and B (drawing the queen of
heart); there is exactly 1 card that is both a heart and a
queen, which is the queen of hearts so. P(A and B) =
1/52
 NON-MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
Solution;

++++
P(A or B)= P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
P(A or B) = 1/4 + 1/13 – 1/52
= 16/52

P(A or B) = 4/13 – The probability of drawing

either a heart or a queen
MUTIPLICATION RULE
For INDEPENDENT EVENTS- If the two events A and B are
independent, the probability that both
events occur is the product of their
individual probability.
P(AՈB) = P(A) x P(B)

For DEPENDENT EVENTS- If wo events A and B are dependent,

the probability that both events occur is:
P(AՈB) = P(A) x P(B/A)
Where P(B/A) is conditional probability that B occurs given
that A has already occured
INDEPENDENT
EXAMPLE
EVENTS
Suppose you flip a fair coin and roll a fair six-sided die
and flip a fair of coin let:

• Event A be the die landing on an even number (2,4, or ,6).

• Event B be the coin landing on heads.

INDEPENDENT
SOLUTION:
EVENTS (Using multiplication rule for independent events) .

• The probability of rolling an even number on a six-sided die is

P(A) = 3/6 = ½
• The probability of the coin landing on heads is:
P(B)=1/2

=½x½
= ¼ - the probability of rolling an even number and flipping
heads
DEPENDENT EVENTS
EXAMPLE

Let say you have a deck of 52 playing cards and you

draw two cards without replacement.

• Event A: drawing a king on the first card.

• Event B: Drawing a king on the second card, after drawing

the first king
DEPENDENT EVENTS +++++
++0a+
SOLUTION: +++++
+++++
+++++

P(A)= _4_
+++++
+++ • The probability of drawing a king bon the first draw (event
A)
52
0aqel+
+++++
++++ • After drawing one king, there are now 51 cards
+v
left, and only 3 kings remaining in the deck. So, the
P(B/A) = 3/51
D++++
+++++
+ probability f drawing a king on the second draw
(event B), given that the first card was a king.

+ • Formula for dependent events

=4/52 x 3/51 =12/2652

• The probability of two kings in
P(AՈB) = 0.0045 or 0.45% a row from a deck without
replacement
CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY
- THE PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT HAPPENING GIVEN
THE ANOTHER EVENT HAS ALREADY HAPPENED.
DENOTE P(A/B)

The formula for conditional proability is:

P(A/B) = P(A and B)

P(B)
COMPLEMENTARY
EXAMPLE
RULE
Let say you have a deck of 52 playing cards and you
draw two cards without replacement.

• Event A: drawing a king on the first card.

• Event B: Drawing a king on the second card, after drawing

the first king
COMPLEMENTARY
RULE
EXAMPLE
- Suppose a die is rolled, and you want to find
the probability of not roling a 6.
• The probability of rolling a 6, P(6), is 1/6
• According to the complementary rule, the
probability of not rolling a 6 is:

P(A’) = 1 - P(A )
P(not 6) = 1 – P(6) = 1 – 1/6
= 5/6 -the probability of not rolling a 6
BAYES’ THEOREM
-ALLOWS TO UPDATE THE PREDICTED PROBAILITIES
OF AN EVENT BY INCORPORATING NEW
INFORMATON OR EVIDENCE.

The formula for Bayes’ Theorem:

P(A/B) = P(B/A) x P(A)

P(B)
BAYES’ THEOREM
EXAMPLE:
IMAGINE YOU’RE TESTING FOR A RARE
DISEASE IN A POPULATION.
• The probability of a person havingthe desease
(P(D)) is 1%(0.01).
• The probability of a test being positive if the
person has he disease (P(Positive/D)) is
90%(0.90).
• The probability of a test being positive when the
person does not have the disease (P(positive/-
D)) IS 5% (0.05).
• We want to know the probability that a person
actually has the diseases given that their test
resultis positive(P(D/positive)).
BAYES’ THEOREM
SOLUTION:
• Prior robability of
P(D) = 0.01 the disease
P(positive) = P(Positive/D) x P(D) + P(positive/-D) x P(-D)
P(positive) = (0.9 x 0.01) + (0.05 x 0.99)
• Probability of a
= 0.009 + 0.045 positive test result
P(positive) = 0.0585

P(D/positive) = P(positive/D) x P(D)

• Bayes’ theorem formula
P(positive)
0.9 x 0.01 = 0.1538 • The probability that the person
=
0.0585 actually has the disease
SUMMARY
PROBABILITY
1. SAMPLE SPACE
2. RELATIONSHIP AMONG EVENTS
• MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS • UNION OF EVENTS
• INDEPENDENT EVENTS • INTERSECTION OF EVENTS
• COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS • CONDITIONAL EVENTS
3. COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY
• FUNDAMENTAL COUNTING PRINCIPLE
• PERMUTATION
• COMBINATION

4. RULES OF PROBABILITY
• ADDTION RULE • COMPLEMENT RULE
• MULTIPLICATION RULE • BAYES’ THEOREM
• CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
 YOU
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 NIGEL AGUIRRE JOSHUA SANSANO

DARYLL ROMANO GROUP MEMBER

IVERSON CATAMA

PRECIOUS VITALEZ