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Conditional Probability

The document discusses dependent and independent events in the context of conditional probability, emphasizing how the outcome of one event can affect the probability of another. It provides definitions, examples, and sample problems to illustrate the concept of conditional probability and its application in sequential experiments. Key vocabulary includes independent events, dependent events, and conditional probability.

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Annisa Nur Fitria
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39 views15 pages

Conditional Probability

The document discusses dependent and independent events in the context of conditional probability, emphasizing how the outcome of one event can affect the probability of another. It provides definitions, examples, and sample problems to illustrate the concept of conditional probability and its application in sequential experiments. Key vocabulary includes independent events, dependent events, and conditional probability.

Uploaded by

Annisa Nur Fitria
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Dependent Event – Ex.

19E

The key detail in the problem is this:


“A pen is selected at random from the drawer and put to one side. A second pen is then selected at random from
the drawer.”
the other, without replacement, and in a
This means the pens are selected one after
specific order — first, then second. The scenario describes a sequential
experiment.
Conditional Probability
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Students will be able to:


find the conditional probability of an event.

Key Vocabulary:
• Independent events
• Dependent events
• Conditional Probability
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Two events, and, are INDEPENDENT EVENTS if the fact that event
occurs does not affect the probability of occurring.

• Rolling a die and getting a 4, and then rolling a second die and
getting a 5.
• Drawing a card from a deck and getting a jack, replacing it, and
then drawing a second card and getting an ace.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

When the outcome or occurrence of the first event affects the


outcome or occurrence of the second event in such a way that the
probability is changed, the events are said to be DEPENDENT
EVENTS.

• Drawing a card from a deck, not replacing it, and then drawing a
second card.
• Having a high grades and getting a scholarship.
• Selecting a ball from a jar, not replacing it, and then selecting a
second ball.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

A CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY of an event is used when the


probability is affected by the knowledge of other circumstances. It
can only occur to dependent events.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY in Venn diagram


CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of that the second event occurs given
that the first event has occurred can be found by dividing the
probability that both events occurred by the probability that the
first event has occurred. It is denoted by , and is given by

where .
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Sample Problem 1: Black and white chips are placed in a box. Jack
selects two chips without replacing the first one. If the probability of
selecting a black chip and white chip is 30/67, and the probability of
selecting a white chip on the first draw is 6/11, find the probability
of selecting a black chip on the second draw, given that the first chip
is white.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Sample Problem 1: Black and white chips are placed in a box. Jack
selects two chips without replacing the first one. If the probability of
selecting a black chip and white chip is 30/67, and the probability of
selecting a white chip on the first draw is 6/11, find the probability
of selecting a black chip on the second draw, given that the first chip
is white.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Sample Problem 2: 9 red balls and 3 green marbles are place in a


bag. Find the probability of randomly selecting a red marble on the
first draw and a green marble on the second draw.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Sample Problem 2: 9 red balls and 3 green marbles are place in a


bag. Find the probability of randomly selecting a red marble on the
first draw and a green marble on the second draw.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Sample Problem 3: The probability Nathan buys butter is 0.10, and


the probability that he buys bread and butter is 0.20. Find the
probability that he will buy butter, given that he already bought
bread.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Sample Problem 3: The probability Nathan buys butter is 0.10, and


the probability that he buys bread and butter is 0.20. Find the
probability that he will buy butter, given that he already bought
bread.

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