Arba-Minch University

College of Medicine and Health sciences

Department of Public Health

Biostatistics for Third Year Public Health

Students

By: Abebe Gedefaw (BSc, MPH/Epidemiology

& Biostatistics)

April 16, 2025 1

 Estimation

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 Learning Objectives
• After completing this chapter, the student will be able
to:
Describe Statistical inference and estimation
Differentiate between point and interval estimation
Compute appropriate confidence intervals for
population means
and proportions and interpret the findings

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 Estimation
• Is concerned with estimating the values of specific
population parameters based on sample statistics.
• is about using information in a sample to make
estimates of the characteristics (parameters) of the
source population.
• Two methods of estimation are commonly used:

• point estimation and interval estimation

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 1. Point Estimate
• A single numerical value used to estimate the
corresponding population parameter.
Sample Statistics are Estimators of Population Parameters
Sample mean, µ
Sample variance, S2 2
Sample proportion, P or π
Sample Odds Ratio, OR
OŔ
RR
Sample Relative Risk, RŔ
ρ
Sample correlation coefficient, r
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 2. Interval Estimation

• Interval estimation specifies a range of reasonable

values for the population parameter based on a point
estimate.
• A confidence interval is a particular type of
interval estimator.

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 Confidence Intervals

• Give a plausible range of values of the estimate likely

to include the “true” (population) value with a given
confidence level.
• An interval estimate provides more information about
a population characteristic than does a point estimate
• Such interval estimates are called confidence
intervals.
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 General Formula:
The general formula for all CIs is:
The value of the statistic in my
sample (eg., mean, odds ratio,
etc.)
point estimate  (measure of how confident we
want to be)  (standard error)

From a Z table or a T table,

depending on the sampling
distribution of the statistic.

Standard error of the statistic.

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Lower limit = Point Estimate - (Critical Value) x
(Standard Error)

Upper limit = Point Estimate + (Critical Value) x

(Standard Error)

• A wide interval suggests imprecision of estimation.

• Narrow CI widths reflects large sample size or low
variability or both.

• Note: Measure of how confident we want to be =

critical value = confidence coefficient
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 Confidence Level
• Confidence Level

– Confidence in which the interval will contain the

unknown population parameter
• A percentage (less than 100%)

– Example: 95%

• Also written (1 - α) = .95

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 Estimation for Single Population

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 1. CI for a Single Population Mean (normally
distributed)
A. Known variance (large sample size)
• There are 3 elements to a CI:
1. Point estimate
2. SE of the point estimate
3. Confidence coefficient ( 1-alpha)
• Consider the task of computing a CI estimate of μ
for a population distribution that is normal with
σ known.
• Available are data from a random sample of size
= n.
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 Assumptions
 Population standard deviation () is known
 Population is normally distributed
 If population is not normal, use large sample
• A 100(1-)% C.I. for  is:

 is to be chosen by the researcher, most common

values of  are 0.05, 0.01 and 0.1.
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3. Commonly used CLs are 90%, 95%, and

99%

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 Finding the Critical Value

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 Margin of Error
(Precision of the estimate)

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 Factors Affecting Margin of Error

The CI for mean or margin of error is determined by

n, s, and α.
– As n increases, the CI decreases.
– As s increases, the length of CI increases.
– As the confidence level increases (α decreases), the
length of CI increases.
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 Example:
1. Waiting times (in hours) at a particular hospital are believed
to be approximately normally distributed with a variance of
2.25 hr.

a. A sample of 20 outpatients revealed a mean waiting time of

1.52 hours. Construct the 95% CI for the estimate of the
population mean.

b. Suppose that the mean of 1.52 hours had resulted from a

sample of 32 patients. Find the 95% CI.

c.April 16,What
2025
effect does larger sample size have on the CI? 18
a. 2.25
1.52 1.96 1.52 1.96(.33)
20
1.52 .65 (.87, 2.17)
• We are 95% confident that the true mean waiting time is
between 0.87 and 2.17 hrs.

April 16, 2025 19

b.
2.25
1.52 1.96 1.52 1.96(.27)
32
1.52 .53 (.99, 2.05)

c. The larger the sample size makes the CI narrower

(more precision).

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B. Unknown variance (small sample size, n ≤
30)
• What if the  for the underlying population is
unknown and the sample size is small?
• As an alternative we use Student’s t distribution.

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April 16, 2025 22
 Student’s t Distribution
• The t is a family of distributions
• Bell Shaped
• Symmetric about zero (the mean)
• Flatter than the Normal (0,1). This means
– The variability of a t is greater than that of a Z that is
normal(0,1)
– Thus, there is more area under the tails and less at
center
– Because variability is greater, resulting confidence
intervals will be wider.
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• Note: t approaches z as n increases

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 Degrees of Freedom (df)
df = Number of observations that are free to vary after
sample mean has been calculated df = n-1

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 Student’s t Table

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 Example

•Standard error =
•t-value at 90% CL at 19 df =1.729

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April 16, 2025 28
 2. CIs for single population proportion, p

• Is based on three elements of CI.

– Point estimate
– SE of point estimate
– 2025
April 16, Confidence coefficient 29
April 16, 2025 30
April 16, 2025 31
Lower limit = Point Estimate - (Critical Value) x (Standard Error of Estimate)

Upper limit = Point Estimate + (Critical Value) x (Standard Error of Estimate)

Hence,

is an approximate 95% CI for the true proportion p.

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 Example 1
• A random sample of 100 people shows that 25 are left-
handed. Form a 95% CI for the true proportion of left-
handers.

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 Interpretation

We are 95% confidence that the true percentage of left-

handers in the population is between 16.51% and
33.49%

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 Example
• In a clinical trial for a new drug to treat hypertension,
N1 = 50 patients were randomly assigned to receive
the new drug, and N2 = 50 patients to receive a
placebo. 34 of the patients receiving the drug showed
improvement, while 15 of those receiving placebo
showed improvement.
• Compute a 95% CI estimate for the difference
between proportions improved.
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 Thank you!

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